We will begin with the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) at Tampa
Bay Downs, where Todd Pletcher’s unbeaten allowance winner Verrazano will
attempt to pick up his first Kentucky Derby qualification points. Never mind
the 16 1/4-length margin of victory last time out -- what was really
impressive was the way he finished after being involved in a very quick pace.
Anything close to a repeat of that effort should bring about a dominant win in
the Tampa Bay Derby.
The only real concern is that the Tampa Bay Downs main
track is known for being very different from Gulfstream Park, and it's possible
that Verrazano may not care for it -- plenty of horses don't. If that turns out
to be the case, than perhaps he can be upset by a runner with experience over
the track. There are three such horses in the race -- Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky,
and Purple Egg. Dynamic Sky won the Pasco Stakes two starts back before
finishing second to Falling Sky in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) after
going very wide on both turns and drifting in the homestretch. The jockey
switch to Joel Rosario is expected to bring about an improved performance, and
so long as Dynamic Sky is within shouting range of Verrazano turning for home,
he should have every opportunity to run the favorite down.
Falling Sky won the above-mentioned Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) in gate-to-wire
fashion, digging in gamely to hold off Dynamic Sky's late charge. However, a
mile and a sixteenth appears to be at the upper limit of his distance
capabilities, and it is doubtful that he will get an easy lead today -- not
with Verrazano and Offlee Fast right on his heels. Furthermore, he has drawn
gate nine, which will make his task of clearing the field and seizing the lead
all the more difficult.
Purple Egg is
unbeaten in three starts sprinting, including a victory in the Inaugural Stakes
here at Tampa in December. However, an illness has kept him from racing since
then, and this is a tough spot to stretch out around two turns for the first
time. Nevertheless, he's flashed a lot of potential, and it wouldn't be
surprising to see him in the mix at the finish.
Honorable Dillon and Java's War merit respect as well. The
first-mentioned runner caught my eye when he defeated the well-regarded
Delhomme in a maiden special weight at Saratoga last summer, but he disappeared
from the work tab shortly thereafter and did not return to the races until
January, when he finished a fast-closing second in an allowance sprint at
Gulfstream. That effort set him up well for a run in the seven-furlong
Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II), which he won by a determined half-length. This will
be his first start in a route race, but being a son of Tapit, one has to think
that a mile and a sixteenth will be within his range. I expect to see him
settle off-the-pace, then try his best to wear down the leaders in the stretch.
Java's War won the Sunday Silence Stakes on turf last year, then finished just
three-quarters of a length behind Dynamic Sky when third in the Breeders'
Futurity (gr. I). He concluded his juvenile season with a sixth-place finish in
the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), which remains his only start on dirt.
He has trained well for his return and possesses a fairly good finishing kick,
but he stills has to prove that he can handle the dirt.
Rounding out the field are Eton Blue and Offlee Wild.
(Park City is also entered, but is expected to scratch in favor of the Rebel
Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park next week.) Eton Blue ran second behind
Verrazano in that one's dominant victory, and while he has shown some talent,
it's hard to envision him making up those 16 1/4 lengths this afternoon. Offlee
Wild broke his maiden two starts back going nine furlongs on the Gulfstream
turf, then switched to dirt and was beaten just a head by the grade I-placed
Capo Bastone in an allowance race. Once again, there's no denying that he has
talent, but the task of outrunning Verrazano and Falling Sky for the early lead
will not be easy.
Selections: Verrazano, Dynamic Sky, Honorable Dillon
Now, let’s briefly examine the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II)
at Santa Anita Park. The 1 1/16th miles event has drawn a field of eight, led
by graded stakes winners Flashback and Goldencents. The first
colt, trained by Bob Baffert, romped to victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes
(gr. II) last month, and obviously possesses a great deal of talent and speed.
This will be only the third start of his career, which is a bit of a concern,
but I'm confident that Julien Leparoux will put him in a good position and let
him run his race. I expect a big performance.
Goldencents has won three of his four starts; his only defeat came at the hands of
juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last fall. Since
that loss, he has been in great form, winning the $1 million Delta Downs
Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) -- with Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) winner
Itsmyluckyday finishing sixth -- and the Sham Stakes (gr. III) here at Santa
Anita. But it is worth noting that Sham runner-up Den's Legacy, who was beaten
just 1 1/2 lengths, returned to be beaten a massive seven lengths by Flashback
in the Robert B. Lewis. Furthermore, Manando -- beaten just three lengths in
the Sham -- came back to run last in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at
Golden Gate Fields. If you want to take these efforts at face value, than
Flashback looms the horse to beat, regardless of his inexperience.
We won't take a look at every other horse entered in the
San Felipe, but allow me to briefly mention Tiz a Minister and Omega
Star, the 1-2 finishers from the California Breeders Stakes last month.
Both ran quite well, with Tiz a Minister rallying from out of the clouds over a
sloppy track to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Omega Star, who seized the lead at
the top of the stretch, only to shorten stride in the final furlong and wind up
second. Of the two, I prefer Omega Star today, given that a fast track is
likely and that John Shirreffs isn't one to run a lightly-raced three-year-old
in a major Derby prep unless he thinks he has a shot at winning. But Tiz a
Minister should not be disregarded -- his late rally in the California Breeders
Stakes was not an illusion. I personally hand-timed his last half-mile in about
:47 2/5 seconds, with fractions of :11 2/5, :23 1/5, and :35 1/5. That is
blazing fast.
Selections: Flashback, Omega Star, Goldencents
Other Races of Note
At Aqueduct . . .
Race 9: Jimmy Winkfield Stakes winner Clawback
will be attempting to win his third straight race in the $100,000 Fred
"Freddy" Capossela Stakes going six furlongs on the main track. A
very talented colt with a great deal of speed, he should be able to win this
race without any trouble. Whiskey Romeo is unbeaten in three starts,
including a pair of stakes at Maryland, and looms the most likely upsetter
while making his three-year-old debut. Personally, I am highly intrigued by Maleeh,
who broke his maiden in eye-catching fashion at Aqueduct in January and appears
to be a very promising colt indeed.
At Gulfstream Park . . .
Race 3: Nick Zito's promising colt Declan's Warrior returns
in this 7-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on the main track. Most
recently beaten a neck by Todd Pletcher's Park City in a 6-1/2 furlong
allowance race -- his first start in about four months -- Declan's Warrior
should be much sharper today, and looms very hard to beat. Acclaim,
second to Verrazano in a January maiden special weight a winner of a similar
race in January, is the second choice on the morning line.
Race 8: Apex, runner-up in a pair of maiden
special weights at Saratoga last fall, will make his first start since then in
this seven-furlong maiden special weight. His primary opposition will likely
come from Red Rifle, a promising first-time starter from the barn of
Todd Pletcher.
At Tampa Bay Downs . . .
Race 5: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) runner-up Noble
Tune is scheduled to make his first start since that race in this one-mile
turf allowance race. Trained by Chad Brown, Noble Tune -- with his powerful
finishing kick and strong training schedule -- should be ready to get back in
the winner's circle today. Pataky Kid, who has shown talent on
Polytrack, will try to transfer his form to turf for the first time. Are You
Kidding Me, runner-up in the Summer Stakes (gr. II) on the Woodbine turf
last fall, but unraced since finishing fifth in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity
(gr. I), should also be right in contention.
-Keelerman
