1. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained
by Edward Plesa, Jr.
Completed his preparation for the Florida Derby by
traversing a half-mile in :49 2/5 at Calder on March 23rd. He drew well for
tomorrow's big test, being assigned gate three, so at least we won't have to
worry about him getting hung wide on the first turn. The only real concern is
that he has Shanghai Bobby drawn to his inside and Merit Man drawn to his
outside, meaning that he could potentially get caught in the middle of a
skirmish for the lead. Then again, perhaps he'll rate behind them in third
place and make his move later. Whatever he does, he needs to finish in the top
two to guarantee himself enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field.
2. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd
Pletcher
Unlike the majority of Pletcher's potential Derby colts,
Verrazano has already secured his berth in the Derby by merit of his Tampa Bay
Derby win. As a result, his exact finish in the Wood Memorial is not important
-- although to be frank, anything less than a victory would be disappointing.
Hopefully, we'll get an opportunity to see him rate off the lead, but given his
natural speed, he may simply find himself in front by default.
3. Oxbow (Awesome
Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He will pick up the services of Gary Stevens for the
Arkansas Derby, which I thought was an interesting decision. Would it not be a
simply spectacular story if Stevens and Lukas were to win the Derby together on
the twenty-fifth anniversary of their triumph with Winning Colors? Given the
circumstances, that would be practically unprecedented.
4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
A lot has been written about how unfortunate it is that
juvenile champion has yet to earn his way into the Derby, and while that may be
so, it's not as though achieving that goal is going to be difficult. All he has
to do is finish in the Florida Derby trifecta, and given his credentials, that
shouldn't pose any problem. I look forward to seeing how he handles the
additional sixteenth of a mile.
5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
Drawing post position three in the Louisiana Derby
probably wasn't the luckiest thing, given Revolutionary's tendency to break
slowly, but as I wrote last week, the long homestretch should help him to
overcome any traffic issues that he may encounter. But once again, he needs a
good effort to secure a trip to the Derby, as he currently possesses just ten
Kentucky Derby qualification points.
6. Orb (Malibu
Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey
What's interesting about his run in the Fountain of Youth
was that -- despite coming from off-the-pace -- he was actually running some
very stiff internal fractions, including a sub-1:10 six furlongs. If he were to
do that again, it would likely put him on the lead in the Florida Derby,
which would be unprecedented. Therefore, it is more likely that he settles back
once again behind a moderate pace, which should leave him with an even stronger
kick for the homestretch.
7. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He has been confirmed as an Arkansas Derby starter, where
he will be ridden by Mike Smith. Hmm . . . where have I heard that before? A
Baffert colt in Arkansas with Smith as the rider? Sounds like Bodemeister,
doesn't it? Yes, it does. And I truly think that War Academy can one-up
Bodemeister by not only winning the Arkansas Derby, but the Kentucky Derby as
well. I'm expecting a bright future for this colt.
8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by
D. Wayne Lukas
Well, it's now or never. Either he finishes in the
Louisiana Derby exacta and secures his berth in the Derby, or he doesn't. On
paper, he appears to be the lone speed, so perhaps he can take them all the way
on the front end. But I suspect (okay, I know) that I have become attached to
this colt in much the same way that I did Dublin in 2010, and my opinion of him
is probably biased. :)
9. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
The presence of his stablemate Super Ninety Nine in the
Santa Anita Derby may be very clever strategy on Baffert's part, as the speedy
Super Ninety Nine will likely go to the lead, allowing Flashback to try and
settle back with a target to run at. If this learning experience were to go as
planned, it would help Flashback's chances immensely in the Derby, where the
ability to rate off the leaders is extremely valuable.
10. Hear the Ghost (Ghostzapper - Rehear, by Coronado's Quest) Trained by
Jerry Hollendorfer
There's nothing to dislike about the way he's training
for the Santa Anita Derby, as his 1:13.60 six-furlong breeze at Hollywood last
week was very strong. He's already secured enough points to make the Derby, so
a top-two effort next week is not imperative. I'd just like to see him settle
back off of what will hopefully be a moderate pace, then finish up well to
crack the trifecta.
11. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob
Baffert
He returns to Fair Grounds this Saturday to contest the
Louisiana Derby, where his grinding style should help him take advantage of the
long homestretch. Any improvement upon his runner-up effort in the Risen Star
should enable him to finish in the top three, which would assure him a berth in
the Derby.
12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd
Pletcher
Like Code West, he is returning to Fair Grounds for a
shot at the Louisiana Derby, but unlike Code West, a third-place finish will
not secure him enough Derby points -- he will need to finish second or better.
That's certainly a distinct possibility, but unless Pletcher runs 1-2 with
Revolutionary and Palace Malice, it is likely that one of these highly-regarded
Pletcher colts will end up without enough points to make the Derby.
13. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez
Breezed five furlongs in a bullet :59.07 at Aqueduct on
March 22nd, signaling his readiness for next week's Wood Memorial.
Unfortunately, with Rudy Rodriguez dealing with a possible extension of his
current suspension, the possibility exists that someone else will be the
trainer of record for that race. Regardless, Rodriguez should be back in action
before the Kentucky Derby.
14. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained
by D. Wayne Lukas
Using the Blue Grass Stakes as a final prep is an
interesting choice, but since this colt doesn't need any additional Derby
points, there really isn't a reason to stay in Arkansas and run against Oxbow
again. Those who question whether he'll handle the Polytrack at Keeneland have
a valid point, but remember, he did break his maiden there last fall.
15. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad
Brown
Like many others, he's got a difficult task to conquer
heading into his final Derby prep, that is, securing enough points to make the
Derby. That fifth-place finish in the Risen Star really hurt, as it left him
with just four points on his record and just one more race in which to earn
more. Fortunately, he seems to be training well, having turned in a pair of
bullet five-furlong works at Palm Meadows during the last two weeks.
16. Departing (War Front - Leave, by Pulpit) Trained by Albert Stall, Jr.
Completed his training for the Louisiana Derby by
breezing a half-mile in :47.20 at Fair Grounds, the fastest of sixty-five such
morning works. He's drawn very well in gate seven, right alongside his
stablemate Sunbean. I anticipate a great performance -- but whether that
performance is great enough to top Revolutionary, Titletown Five, Code West,
and Palace Malice remains to be seen.
17. Den's Legacy (Medaglia d'Oro - Sunshine Song, by War Chant) Trained by
Bob Baffert
He will be making a return trip to Arkansas to compete in
the Arkansas Derby, where he will most likely be overshadowed by stablemate War
Academy. Nevertheless, it would be unwise to count this colt out of contention,
because he has quietly amassed twenty Derby qualification points, and a top three
finish in Arkansas will likely stamp his ticket to Louisville.
18. Black Onyx (Rock Hard Ten - Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) Trained by Kelly Breen
The three new additions to this week's top twenty,
starting with this colt, are rounding out the bottom three positions simply
because I'm not quite sure what to do with them. Like many a Spiral winner,
Black Onyx emerged from seemingly nowhere to defeat a fairly strong field with
a number of well-regarded entrants. The question is, can he transfer his form to
dirt? Well, he did break his maiden over it last November at Aqueduct.
Regardless, he's already arrived in Louisville to begin training for the Derby,
so he'll have every opportunity to familiarize himself with the Churchill main
track.
19. Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute - Silverbulletway, by Storm Cat) Trained
by Bob Baffert
As blazingly fast as the track was on Sunland Derby day,
it was still a remarkable for Govenor Charlie to win as he did, breaking a
52-year-old track record by nearly three-fifths of a second. The ease at which
he disposed of Abraham rounding the final turn was also remarkable. With only
three starts under his belt -- and none as a two-year-old -- he'll have to buck
history to win the Derby, but then again, maybe he has the talent to do just
that.
20. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse
You couldn't really have asked for a finer effort in the
Spiral, given that it was his first start since November. He flashed enough
speed to stay within reach of the lead throughout the first six furlongs and
finished up well in the final furlong. True, that final furlong was run in a
slow :13.62, but I think it was more the result of a slow track than horses
tiring, because watching the race, no one seemed to be that exhausted.
-Keelerman
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