It seems like much more than two months since we saw him
upset Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull. But then, I guess time goes slowly when
you're awaiting what could be a breakout performance from a potentially great
colt. Believe it or not, he'll have to finish first or second in the Florida
Derby to finalize his spot in the Kentucky Derby -- he only has ten Derby
qualification points -- but if he runs like I think he will, that shouldn't be
an issue.
2. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd
Pletcher
So let's see. Just how much does Verrazano have to
overcome to win the Derby? Well, there's the Apollo Curse (He didn't race as a
juvenile; no horse without two-year-old experience has won the Derby since
Apollo in 1882.) He'll enter the Derby with four starts this year -- and no
colt with that much three-year-old experience has won the Derby since Smarty
Jones in 2004. Furthermore, his final prep will come in the Wood Memorial, and
the Wood has not been too kind to potential Derby candidates as of late -- the
2009, 2010, and 2011 winners were all injured prior to the Derby, as was 2008
runner-up War Pass; 2012 winner Gemologist did make the Derby, but ran
fifteenth and emerged with an injury. Can Verrazano possibly overcome all this?
Of course he can! This colt may simply be one of the most talented runners we
have seen in some time. One more good prep and he may head to Louisville as the
favorite.
3. Oxbow (Awesome
Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Although he lost the Rebel Stakes, I personally thought
that it was an exceptional performance, given that he may have moved a bit
early into a very solid pace. I think he's got another major step forward
inside of him -- let's just hope that he uses it in the Kentucky Derby, rather
than the Arkansas Derby three weeks prior.
4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
After patiently waiting throughout February and March for
his return, we're finally going to get to see what Shanghai Bobby can do in the
Florida Derby against Itsmyluckyday and Orb. Of course, he won't be ready for a
peak effort yet -- not in his second start since November -- but he should be
much sharper than he was for the Holy Bull. Which is kind of scary, since he
did break the track record in defeat. However, should he lose, don't fret --
remember, Todd Pletcher's lone Derby winner, Super Saver, lost both of his prep
races before romping in the Run for the Roses.
5. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
Pletcher has chosen to take a very unusual route to the
Derby with this colt, starting him off at Aqueduct in the Withers Stakes before
heading to Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) next week. Given that
Revolutionary has been prone to breaking slowly from the starting gate, perhaps
the long Fair Grounds homestretch will help his chances should he break slowly
once again. It had better, because he likely needs a top-two finish in order to
secure a berth in Louisville.
6. Orb (Malibu
Moon - Lady Liberty, by Unbridled) Trained by Shug McGaughey
He still has a few questions to answer in the Florida
Derby, namely, how will he respond to the projected slower pace? His Fountain
of Youth victory was no doubt aided by the blazing pace (1:08 4/5 for
three-quarters of a mile.) Then again, he actually made a pretty good run into
that blazing third quarter, and was finishing strongest of anyone at the
finish. If he can adapt to a slower pace and still finish powerfully, it will
make him all the more dangerous in Louisville.
7. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by
D. Wayne Lukas
Call me stubborn if you like, but I am still confident
that Titletown Five is better than his Gazebo Stakes performance suggests. I
really think that he will be better going longer, but it's a now-or-never
proposition this Sunday in the Sunland Derby (gr. III), where he needs to
finish 1-2 to have any real shot at making it to Louisville.
8. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He showed me everything I wanted to see in his dominating
allowance victory last week. Not only did he patiently bide his time when
Manando tried to steal the race with a blazing third quarter mile, he flashed
an excellent turn-of-foot when asked to run in the homestretch and was
obviously much the best at the finish. Given that it was his first start around
two turns, I don't think that it was a fluke. The Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass
Stakes, and Arkansas Derby are all possibilities for his next start.
9. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
While it was a bit disappointing to see him lose the San
Felipe, there's no denying that it was a great experience for him. Being forced
to set a quick pace, and then really run all-out in the homestretch,
undoubtedly did him a world of good. He needed something like that, given how
easy his first two victories had been. Remember, Bodemeister used a defeat in
last year's San Felipe as a stepping stone to his blowout Arkansas Derby
victory.
10. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by French Deputy) Trained by Bob
Baffert
He missed some time with hoof issues, but he's not off
the Derby trail yet -- Baffert has chosen the Wood Memorial (gr. I) at Aqueduct
for this colt's much-anticipated stakes debut. Now, I can't remember the last
time Baffert ran a horse in the Wood Memorial -- actually, has he ever run
a horse in the Wood Memorial? -- but this colt may have the talent to overcome
his lack of experience and stamp his ticket to Louisville with a top-two
finish.
11. Hear the Ghost (Ghostzapper - Rehear, by Coronado's Quest) Trained by
Jerry Hollendorfer
When Jerry Hollendorfer has a Derby starter, you had
better believe he's serious. Remember Chocolate Candy and Rousing Sermon? Well,
neither colt was expected to really contend in the Derby, but they wound up
finishing fifth and eighth in respectable efforts. Now Hollendorfer may have
his best chance in years with Hear the Ghost, who took unleashed a furious
rally to win the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) by a half-length. Granted, he took
advantage of a speed duel between the two favorites, but it was still a
terrific performance. And don't forget, he has flashed a great deal of speed as
well -- just take a look at the paces he chased in his first two starts. That
kind of versatility can be dangerous in the Derby.
12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd
Pletcher
His third-place finish in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)
looks even better after Oxbow, who finished fourth, came back and was beaten a
head in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn. And to be perfectly honest,
Palace Malice might have been better than the top two finishers in the Risen
Star, given that he raced wide throughout and was making his first start around
two turns. He should be ready for an even bigger performance in next week's
Louisiana Derby, where he'll hopefully get a better trip.
13. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob
Baffert
Like Palace Malice, Risen Star Stakes runner-up Code West
is expected to return to Fair Grounds for the Louisiana Derby, where a
top-three performance would pretty much assure him a spot in the Churchill
Downs starting gate. I like the way that he battled back in the Risen Star
after seemingly being beat a furlong from home, for the ability to keep on
chugging away in the homestretch can be valuable in the Derby -- think Animal
Kingdom.
14. Vyjack (Into Mischief - Life Happened, by Stravinsky) Trained by Rudy Rodriguez
I really don't know what to do with this colt. His change
of running style in the Gotham Stakes left me very impressed -- it's not often
that you see any horse, let alone a three-year-old, switch his running style so
drastically and so successfully -- but at the same time, his pedigree suggests
distance limitations, and it's really impossible to say what his prime running
style is.
15. Will Take Charge (Unbridled's Song - Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) Trained
by D. Wayne Lukas
It feels kind of silly having Oxbow ranked third and his
Rebel conqueror ranked fifteenth, but I thought that the Rebel set up perfectly
for Will Take Charge, and that Oxbow showed much more impressive acceleration
and tactical speed. On the other hand, I really liked the way that Will Take
Charge finished up after being left in Oxbow's dust turning for home, and he is
the type of horse that you can envision charging furiously in the final furlong
of the Kentucky Derby.
16. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad
Brown
He gets his big test on the first Saturday in April when
he contests the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Given that he currently has just
four Kentucky Derby qualification points to his credit, he'll have to finish
first or second to assure himself a berth in Louisville -- which won't be easy
with Verrazano, Vyjack, and possibly Power Broker or Tiz the Truth vying for
those same precious points.
17. Departing (War Front - Leave, by Pulpit) Trained by Albert Stall, Jr.
I can't believe that more people aren't talking about
this colt, especially given his impressive victory in the Texas Heritage Stakes.
What's not to like about an unbeaten son of War Front? With his experience at
Fair Grounds, he could be a dark horse in the Louisiana Derby next week, where
he will get a major class test against the likes of Revolutionary, Palace
Malice, Code West, and others.
18. Den's Legacy (Medaglia d'Oro - Sunshine Song, by War Chant) Trained by
Bob Baffert
He's starting to remind me of Giacomo, what with the way
he has been placing in so many major Derby preps without winning. Since
breaking his maiden last August, he has finished fifth in the FrontRunner
Stakes (gr. I), second in the Zuma Beach Stakes, second in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview Stakes, first in the Generous Stakes (gr. III),
third in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), second in the Sham Stakes (gr. III),
second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), and third in the Rebel Stakes
(gr. II) -- and in the latter race, he was trapped on the rail all the way and
emerged with a cut on his leg. One more good effort and he'll be in the Derby,
where his vast amount of experience may give him an edge.
19. Shakin It Up (Midnight Lute - Silver Bullet Moon, by Vindication)
Trained by Bob Baffert
He's scheduled to make his two-turn debut in the Sunland
Derby (gr. III) this Sunday, and while he will surely start as the favorite, he
is by no means a lock to win. Sunland has not been very kind to Baffert --
remember Conveyance in 2010, and Castaway last year? The locals probably have
an edge, given their experience over the racetrack, but hopefully, Shakin It Up
can emerge with the victory and continue on his way to Louisville. If he
doesn't, he'll have to come back for another prep race, because he currently
has zero Kentucky Derby qualification points, and anything less than a win
won't cut it.
20. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by
Todd Pletcher
I really have no idea what to expect from him in
tomorrow's Spiral Stakes (gr. III). His two-year-old form was strong, although
he failed to earn a Beyer speed figure higher than 78. Then, in his
three-year-old debut, he made an eye-catching run around the turn and ran down
a loose leader in the homestretch -- and earned a Beyer of 69 for his efforts.
Now, he has drawn gate twelve in the Spiral, a race that he needs to win to
assure his berth in the Derby. He had better be ready.
-Keelerman
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