If you had told me two years ago that the Spiral Stakes
(gr. III) at Turfway Park would -- in the span of two years -- produce a
Kentucky Derby winner and a Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher, I never would
have believed it. Yet that is exactly what has happened, with 2011 Spiral
winner Animal Kingdom claiming the Run for the Roses and 2012 victor Went the
Day Well finishing a fast-closing fourth in the Derby.
So it is with newfound respect that I analyze the 2013
edition of the Spiral, which -- thanks to a new sponsorship agreement -- is
officially known as the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Racing Spiral Stakes. No
longer is the Spiral simply an enjoyable race for third-tier Derby contenders
-- it is most undoubtedly one of the major prep races, and that is reflected in
the new Kentucky Derby qualification point system, which has the Spiral as one
of the final fifty-point Derby preps. As a result, a field of twelve has been
entered in this year's renewal of the race, and several of them look as though
they could be a factor in Louisville.
First and foremost is Uncaptured, who had a simply
spectacular juvenile season, concluding a 6-for-7 campaign with a gritty
victories in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr.
II) at Churchill Downs. Various hoof issues have kept him on the sidelines
since then, but he's ready to roll now, as his recent one-mile workout at the
Ocala Training Center suggests. Obviously, he's a bit behind schedule for
making the Derby -- he'll likely have to come back in the Blue Grass Stakes
(gr. I) three weeks from now in order to get enough foundation to be a serious
Derby contender -- but this race is a great starting point for him, and with a
4-for-5 record on Polytrack, he shouldn't have any trouble handling the Turfway
main track.
Balance the Books appears to be his primary opposition, based on a strong
third-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) last November. A
two-time graded stakes winner, Balance the Books will be making both his synthetic
track and three-year-old debut today, which does set up the possibility of a
sub-par performance. But all that aside, Balance the Books possesses a simply
terrific turn-of-foot, and should be finishing fast in the final furlong.
Now, Uncaptured and Balance the Books are the morning
line favorite, with respective odds of 3-1 and 7-2. Showcasing the unknown
factor in most of the runners is the fact that Capo Bastone (9-2 odds)
is the only other entrant listed at less than 10-1. And there's no denying that
he deserves it -- he finished third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year, and returned to win an allowance race
at Gulfstream Park last month by a determined head. But the fact is, his Beyer
speed figures have been very low -- for the most part, he has run figures in
the upper 70s, and actually decreased to a 69 in allowance victory.
Furthermore, he has drawn gate twelve in the Spiral, which raises the
possibility that he could be caught very wide on the turns.
So if all three of the favorites have questions to answer
-- Uncaptured and Balance the Books regarding their layoffs, and Capo Bastone
concerning his speed figures and post draw -- are we on the verge of witnessing
a monumental upset?
Well, "monumental" isn't exactly the right
word, because the longest longshot on the morning line is 20-1, but an upset is
a distinct possibility. Personally, I like the chances of My Name Is Michael,
who finished a fast-closing third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) last
month despite a less-than-perfect trip. He also has an admirable record of
Polytrack, having broken his maiden at Woodbine last year and finished second
in the Display Stakes.
Local stars Mac the Man and General Election
also merit a great deal of respect. The former is unbeaten in three starts here
at Turfway, which includes dominating victories in the 96Rock Stakes and
Turfway Park Prevue Stakes. The latter enters off of an impressive win in the
John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, in which he turned in an eight-wide rally to
win by a determined half-length.
Rounding out the field are Giant Finish and For
Greater Glory, the 2-3 finishers in the John Battaglia; Black Onyx,
sharp winner of turf allowance race at Gulfstream last month; Fear the
Kitten, who has placed in both the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) and LeComte
Stakes (gr. III) this year; Channel Isle, fourth in the Southwest; and Taken
by the Storm, sixth to Capo Bastone in that one's allowance win and
subsequent winner of a turf allowance race at Gulfstream. Any and all of them
could contend under the right circumstances, and quite frankly, I won't be
surprised if any of them win.
Selections: My Name is Michael, Balance the Books,
General Election
-Keelerman
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