Welcome all to the first "Triple Crown
Countdown" of 2013! Technically, it isn't quite 2013 yet -- there are
still a few more days of 2012 to complete -- but now is as good a time as any
to focus our binoculars on Louisville, Kentucky, and try to identify the Derby
winner before he is standing in the Churchill Downs winner's circle with
a blanket of roses upon his back. :)
Let it be known that this year's "Triple Crown
Countdown" is going to have a slightly different feel from years past.
I'll still be writing up analysis and recaps of the weekend stakes action, and
I'll still be pouring through the maiden and allowances races searching for the
next up-and-coming star, but I'll also be adding sections of more informal
thoughts on topics that don't really fit in posts of their own. Today's
article, which you are reading now, reflects this change and contains a number
of such pieces.
I hope you enjoy!
****
Let's begin this year's Triple Crown Countdown by taking
a look at my first "Derby Top Ten" of the season. In the future, it
will expand to its typical twenty-horse format, but I always start with ten
horses because -- let's face it -- compiling a list of twenty top Derby
contenders this far out is no easy task!
Please take a moment to view my top ten here.
Not surprisingly, my top ten contains a number of colts
trained by Todd Pletcher, whose three-year-old division is always deep heading
into a new year. In fact, four of my ten colts are trained by Todd Pletcher.
Dale Romans, whose trainees have cracked the superfecta
in the last three Derbies, has a pair of talented colts on my list. Bob Baffert
and D. Wayne Lukas, two of the most dominant Triple Crown trainers in history,
have one apiece, as do Kiaran McLaughlin and Chad Brown.
One trainer noticably absent is Nick Zito, who won the
Kentucky Derby in 1991 and 1994. He usually has one or two good colts each year
that lead him to the Triple Crown trail, but the last couple of years have been
slow for Zito, and good colts have been fewer and farther between than in the
past.
However, he does have one colt that I am very excited
about, that being Mountain Eagle. The son of Birdstone broke his maiden
in very strong fashion earlier this month at Gulfstream Park, drawing off to
win a one-mile race by 4 1/2 lengths in the quick time of 1:35.95 seconds. He
looks very, very promising, and I am eagerly anticipating his next start. I
consider him number 11 on my Derby watch list, just out of the top ten.
****
While the Triple Crown Trail is always unpredictable, one
thing we can always rely on is that Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher will win more
than their fair share of prep races thanks to their wonderfully deep and
talented brigades of three-year-olds.
This year should be no different. As usual, Bob Baffert
has an exceptional group of youngsters, including a pair of grade I winners.
The most obvious is Power Broker, impressive winner of the FrontRunner
Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita. Sitting on the sidelines is Rolling Fog,
winner of the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I), but he should be back in training soon.
Another major name is Den's Legacy, who rallied for third in the
CashCall Futurity (gr. I).
Other lesser-known—but just as promising—colts include
dominant maiden winners War Academy, Flashback, Manando, Code West, and
Belvin; Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) 1-2-3 finishers Really Mr.
Greely, Super Ninety Nine, and Shakin it Up; Real Quiet Stakes
winner Carving; allowance optional claiming race winner Z Big Apple;
and undoubtedly many others that have yet to establish themselves.
Todd Pletcher's brigade is arguably even stronger. His
major stakes winners include Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner and likely
champion Shanghai Bobby; CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Violence;
and Remsen Stakes (gr. III) winner Overanalyze. He is also the trainer
of Capo Bastone, third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and
FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) when trained by John Sadler; and Delhomme,
who broke his maiden over a pair of next-out winners before finishing third by
less than a length in the Remsen.
Other impressive maiden winners trained by Pletcher
include Palace Malice and Revolutionary, the latter having won
his first race just this afternoon by 8 1/2 impressive lengths. Archwarrior,
Darwin, and Micromanage all broke their maidens sharply earlier
this year before disappointing in major stakes engagements, but all deserve
additional opportunities to prove themselves along the Triple Crown Trail.
And let's not overlook his fillies! Frizette Stakes (gr.
I) winner Dreaming of Julia and Matron Stakes (gr. II) winner Kauai
Katie are the headliners, but he also has Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) winner
Unlimited Budget and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) fourth-place
finisher Tara From the Cape.
****
The Breeders' Cup Juvenile, being the richest race for
two-year-olds in this country, always holds a great deal of weight in
determining the year-end championship. Unfortunately, it has proven to be a
poor indicator of future success in the Kentucky Derby, with only Street Sense
managing to complete the highly difficult Juvenile/Derby double.
In recent years, we have seen promising colts like War
Pass and Uncle Mo romp to victory in the Juvenile and look like budding
superstars heading into the Triple Crown. Unfortunately, injury forced
premature retirement upon War Pass, and a rare illness kept Uncle Mo from
living up to his vast potential.
However, last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile was different
from most. While none of the contestants were able to win the Derby, an
incredible nine of the thirteen Juvenile starters made it to the Derby
starting gate, and eleven have returned to win graded stakes races this
year.
Whether or not this year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile will
yield similar results is open to debate. The winner was Shanghai Bobby,
an obviously talented colt that also won the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) and
Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) this year during one of the strongest two-year-old
campaigns in many years.
However, from a speed-figure perspective, the Juvenile
was shockingly slow. The winner's Beyer Speed Figure was a mere 82, the lowest
since Beyers were first published in 1991. Furthermore, Shanghai Bobby's final
time -- 1:44.58 -- ranks as the fourth-slowest in the history of the race.
Third, actually, if you toss out the 1:49.61 clocked by Vindication when the
race was run at nine furlongs.
Furthermore, the few Breeders' Cup Juvenile competitors
that have run since then have done nothing to inspire confidence in the quality
of the race. He's Had Enough, runner-up by a head, was subsequently
beaten nine lengths when fifth in the CashCall Futurity. Title Contender,
beaten sixteen lengths in the Juvenile, was beaten 48 3/4 lengths in the
CashCall while finishing last. And Monument, last in the Juvenile while
beaten 25 1/2 lengths, could only manage third next time out against
California-breds in the King Glorious Stakes.
Now, don't get me wrong, I am not writing off this year's
Breeders' Cup Juvenile field as too slow to possibly have an impact on next
year's Triple Crown. I am merely taking note of a few facts that I found
intriguing. It will be fascinating to see how Shanghai Bobby fares in the Holy
Bull Stakes (gr. III) next month, his first start since the Juvenile.
****
Last year's California-based three-year-olds were clearly
the best in the country. I'll Have Another and Bodemeister shipped from
California to run 1-2 in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, and
Bodemeister also won the Arkansas Derby. Another Californian, Paynter, won the
Haskell Invitational (gr. I) and was second in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).
Nonios began his career at Golden Gate in Northern California before eventually
placing second in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I), Awesome Again Stakes (gr.
I), and Native Diver Stakes (gr. III), the latter two efforts coming against
older horses.
Lesser-remembered Californians won their fair share of
races, too. Castaway won a division of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at
Oaklawn; Secret Circle won the other division, and the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) as
well. Called to Serve began his career in California, then embarked on an
expedition to the east coast that ended with a romping win in the Discovery
Handicap (gr. III). Topping things off was Handsome Mike, who -- after
competing unsuccessfully in a number of California stakes races -- scored a
19-1 upset in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II).
Things could be different this year. The California-based
three-year-olds have had little success defending their home turf from invaders
this fall, losing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to Shanghai Bobby and the rich
CashCall Futurity to Violence. Thus, at this time, it appears that the
east-coast colts are of higher quality -- but as we all know, things can change
quickly in horse racing.
****
Allow us to conclude today's post by examining a
promising allowance race that is to be run later this afternoon at Santa Anita
Park.
Carded as the ninth and feature race of the day, the
event is six furlongs in distance and carries a purse of $58,000. However, it
might as well be a stakes race, given the number of stakes-caliber two-year-old
colts that have been entered.
The morning line favorite at 4-5 is Bob Baffert's Super
Ninety Nine, a lightly-raced but highly promising son of Pulpit. Although
he has the pedigree of a two-turn horse, he has proven himself to be a highly
capable sprinter, breaking his maiden first-time out, going seven-furlongs
before falling just a half-length short of stablemate Really Mr Greely in the
Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). He is shortening up in distance to just six
furlongs, which could be a bit short for him, but win or lose, this race should
set him up well for stakes engagements further down the road.
Another colt that is using this race as a prep for bigger
(and hopefully better!) things is Know More. Trained by Doug O'Neill,
who made headlines winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness with I'll Have
Another, Know More was good enough to win the Best Pal Stakes (gr. II) at Del
Mar in his very first start, an almost inconceivable feat. The colt ran
just as well in his next two starts, finishing second in both the Del Mar
Futurity (gr. I) and the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), before a failed turf
experiment yielded a next-to-last finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
(gr. I).
Just two weeks later, he was back in action at Delta
Downs, where he was sent off as the 5-1 third choice in the Delta Downs Jackpot
Stakes (gr. III). While he never threatened en route to an eighth-place finish,
it's probably wise to forgive that effort, considering the unique nature of the
Delta Downs main track and the fact that he was running back on just two weeks
rest.
Distinctiv Passion may be 7-2 on the morning line, but believe me, this
colt is a good one and can win this race. After starting his career with a pair
of decent efforts against good colts, he broke through on November 25th with a
solid victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park.
What made his effort most impressive was the fact that the second- and
third-place finishers, Belvin and Manando, have both come back to break their
own maidens in good fashion.
Mico Margarita will also receive a good deal of support in the wagering. After breaking
his maiden second time out, with subsequent Remsen Stakes runner-up Normandy
Invasion behind him, the colt finished a good third in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile Turf Sprint Preview Stakes after leading into the stretch. Most
recently, he was beaten a nose by Bob Baffert's Z Big Apple in a six-furlong
allowance at Hollywood Park about three weeks ago. Trained by Steve Asmussen,
Mico Margarita has speed, but is versatile enough to come from off-the-pace if
necessary.
Counting Days, an impressive maiden claiming winner that most recently finished seventh
in the Generous Stakes (gr. III), and Disarm, a Texas-bred coming off of
a starter allowance victory at Hollywood, round out the six-horse field.
My selection is Distinctiv Passion. While I
greatly respect the merits of Super Ninety Nine and Know More, and acknowledge
that they could be stronger Triple Crown candidates further down the road, I
think that Distinctiv Passion is as fit as he can be -- coming off of two
consecutive sub-59 five-furlong workouts -- and feel he's superior to the
favorites at this distance.
-Keelerman
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