Battle for leading stallion a very close race

The question of which stallion will be the leading general sire of 2012 may not be answered until the final days of this year, for very little separates the top three stallions in terms of progeny earnings -- so little that it is almost unbelievable.

Entering December 7th, the three leading stallions by progeny earnings in this country -- according to the Blood-Horse general sire list --  are Giant's Causeway, Empire Maker, and Speightstown. There earnings are, respectively, $9,677,594, $9,677,529, and $9,620,059.

No, that is not a typo. Giant's Causeway and Empire Maker truly are separated by just $65, with Speightstown $57,535 behind Giant's Causeway.

The fact that Giant's Causeway is leading the list comes as no surprise. He was the leading sire in both 2009 and 2010, and has not ranked lower than fourth since 2006. In contrast, Empire Maker ranked 17th in 2009, 40th in 2010, and 8th in 2011, while Speightstown finished 32nd, 10th, and 7th during those same years. These stats thus acknowledged, it is clear that Empire Maker and Speightstown are wrapping up by far their best years to date, making it all the more unfortunate that the former was exported to Japan prior to establishing himself as such a top-notch stallion.

But that aside, determining which of the three stallions will stand atop the list at the end of this year is rather tricky. Given how close the sire race is, a victory by one of their runners in a rich late-season stakes race could potentially seal the deal.

First up on the agenda is the $500,000 Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I), which will be run tomorrow afternoon at Betfair Hollywood Park. One of the entrants is Miss Empire, a stakes-winning daughter of Empire Maker. A victory in the race would be a surprise, given that she will be facing two-time grade I winner Executiveprivilege, but even a runner-up effort could give her sire the edge he needs to top Giant's Causeway and Speightstown.

Also tomorrow afternoon at Hollywood is the $200,000 Bayakoa Handicap (gr. II), where Empire Maker's daughter Charm the Maker will attempt to find the winner's circle for the first time since last year's Sharp Cat Stakes over this same track. Given that she also finished second in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes last year, one has to think that Charm the Maker will relish the return to the Hollywood Cushion Track.

Now fast forward to December 16th at Gulfstream Park, where the ungraded $100,000 Harlan's Holiday Stakes will be run. Expected to be among the favorites is Delegation, the third-place finisher from the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I). A son of Speightstown, the $60,000 winner's share of the purse would be enough to put Speightown right into the thick of things with Giant's Causeway and Empire Maker, bringing the three stallions to within a few thousand dollars of each other.

All told, it should be an exciting race all the way down to the finish. Be sure to pay attention during the coming weeks!

-Keelerman