Through the first six months of 2013, the year's crop of three-year-old fillies resemble their male counterparts in many respects -- including their lack of a standout division leader. That can change on Saturday at Belmont Park when Dreaming of Julia starts as the heavy favorite in the $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I).
Trained by Todd Pletcher, the immensesly talented daughter of A.P. Indy looked ready to take command of the division by storm following her 21 3/4-length victory in the Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II) in March. Unfortunately, trouble at the start of the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) cost Dreaming of Julia any reasonable chance at victory, and she wound up finishing fourth behind longshot Princess of Sylmar.
Fortunately for Dreaming of Julia, hard luck and surprising upsets have been commonplace throughout the division this year, leaving it without a clear-cut leader. Princess of Sylmar won a couple of minor stakes at Aqueduct during the winter, but lost the Gazelle (gr. II) prior to the Oaks. Midnight Lucky romped in the Sunland Oaks (gr. III), tired late in the Kentucky Oaks, and returned to win the Acorn. Kauai Katie dominated the Forward Gal (gr. II) and Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream, but was a troubled third in the Acorn. Beholder won the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I) and Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I), but got caught by 'Sylmar in the final strides of the Kentucky Oaks. Close Hatches won the Gazelle but never threatened in the Oaks; she returned to be second in the Acorn. Unlimited Budget romped in the Rachel Alexandra (gr. III) and Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II), but found trouble in the Oaks and wound up third. You get the picture.
As a result, victory in the Mother Goose would go a long way toward earning Dreaming of Julia an Eclipse award next January. Not only would it give her a grade I victory -- putting her on even terms with Princess of Sylmar and Midnight Lucky -- it would also set her up well for the Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) and/or the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga.
To be perfectly honest, Dreaming of Julia reminds me a great deal of a three-year-old Royal Delta -- an obviously top-notch filly that occasionally mis-fires. Remember that summer of 2011 when Royal Delta romped in the Black-Eyed Susan (gr. II) and then managed to lose the Coaching Club American Oaks by 7 1/4 lengths? That loss reminds me quite a bit of Dreaming of Julia's failures in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) and the Kentucky Oaks. The important thing to recall is that Royal Delta rebounded to decimate the Alabama Stakes, finish second in the Beldame Stakes to eventual Horse of the Year Havre de Grace, and decisively triumph in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I).
Time will tell if Dreaming of Julia can emulate the achievements of Royal Delta, but the Mother Goose Stakes is a good place to start.
-Keelerman
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