Later this afternoon, at Belmont Park, the first unrestricted two-year-old races of the meet will be held. Both are five furlongs in distance on the main track; one is for fillies, the other for colts.
In many cases, these early-season juvenile races have little bearing on the following year's Triple Crown, or even the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November. But last year proved to be an exception, with Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice making his debut in July at Belmont and Shanghai Bobby facing the starter in -- get this! -- April at Aqueduct! So the possibility certainly exists that we could see the debut of a star later this afternoon.
Before we continue, let's take a quick look at the entries for the two races:
Belmont Race 2
Maiden Special Weight for 2yo Fillies
PP/Horse/Trainer
1 Predicate/Mark Hennig
2 True Blue Nation/Tom Albertrani
3 Candy Kitty/Todd Pletcher
4 Aldara/Tom Albertrani
5 Chase My Tail/Richard Violette, Jr.
6 Palestrina/Kiaran McLaughlin
Belmont Race 3
Maiden Special Weight for 2yos
PP/Horse/Trainer
1 Permanent Campaign/Richard Violette, Jr.
2 Aslan/Tom Albertrani
3 Oliver Zip ---Scratched---
4 None Like Nolan/Todd Pletcher
5 Solemnly Swear/Kelly Breen
6 Jake's Magic Hat/Eddie Keneally
7 Zalmon/Tom Albertrani
Tom Albertrani is going to have a very busy day, having entered two horses in each race. Two of them -- Aldara and Aslan -- are owned by Darley Stable. Like most Darley-breds, they are both regally bred, but are unlikely to be ready to roll first time out. Neither will run on the anti-bleeding medication Lasix, as is Darley's policy with two-year-olds.
Albertrani's best chance will probably come from True Blue Nation, an unraced daughter of Bluegrass Cat. There is enough speed in her pedigree to suggest that five furlongs in June is within her comfort zone, although her workout times have been unremarkable and she may need to get a race or two behind her before she finds the winner's circle.
Rounding out Albertrani's quartet is Zalmon, a son of Jump Start out of the Dynaformer mare Dyna Two, who was a very capable stakes-placed performer on the turf. Zalmon's sire, Jump Start, came to hand early enough to win the Saratoga Special (gr. II) and place in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I), but the majority of his top progeny have been late-maturing and better at staying than sprinting, so this -- coupled with the Dynaformer blood on the dam side -- suggests that Zalmon, too, will need to get a couple of races under his belt before reaching peak form.
The same goes for the third Darley-bred in the race, that being Palestrina. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the daughter of Medaglia d'Oro has only four recorded workouts on her record, making her an unlikely candidate for a first-out triumph.
A couple of horses that do look ready to roll are the Todd Pletcher pair of Candy Kitty and None Like Nolan. Both have five-furlong works on their records, and while Candy Kitty is bred to be more of a turf stayer than a dirt sprinter, she has shown some decent speed in the mornings and warrants serious win consideration. None Like Nolan looks even better, being a son of Malibu Moon and having breezed a bullet half-mile from the gate on June 3rd. Interestingly, None Like Nolan is owned by Dogwood Stables -- could we be looking at next year's version of Palace Malice? :)
Now let's take a look at the two Richard Violette-trainees, Chase My Tail and Permanent Campaign. It's difficult to get a line on either of them through morning works, as Permanent Campaign has recorded five and Chase My Tail only three! But they have certainly done nothing to dispel the notion that they could be ready to win first-time out, as both have bullet works on their records and pedigrees that suggest they can do so. Interestingly, it was the Richard Violette-trained colt Carried Interest that defeated Palace Malice in his debut here at Belmont last year.
Rounding out the filly race is Predicate, a Mark Hennig-trained daughter of Congrats that has flashed some exceptional speed during morning works. To be perfectly honest, I'm having trouble understanding why she is 6-1 on the morning line, as she looks like a leading win contender to me.
Given the number of horses we have already discussed, it's hard to believe that we haven't even mentioned the morning line favorite in the colt's race, that being Solemnly Swear. The son of Yes It's True has by far the most impressive workout record, which includes a :47.53 half-mile on June 10th that was the fastest of fifty-five morning works at that distance. As a result, the Kelly Breen-trainee is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite, and if he runs to his workouts, he should win without trouble.
Rounding out the field is Jake's Magic Hat, trained by Eddie Keneally. By the juvenile standout Tiz Wonderful out of a Carson City mare, Jake's Magic Hat definitely has the pedigree to win first-time out. Furthermore, his workouts have been quite sharp, making his morning line price of 6-1 very intriguing.
Selections:
Fillies: Predicate, Candy Kitty, Chase My Tail
Colts: Solemnly Swear, None Like Nolan, Permanent Campaign
-Keelerman
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