Honor Code valiant in Remsen Stakes triumph

Honor Code added another exciting chapter to his young racing career when he battled Cairo Prince through the length of the Aqueduct homestretch to win the $400,000 Remsen Stakes (gr. II) by a nose.

Trained by Shug McGaughey and owned by Lane's End Racing and Dell Ridge Farm, Honor Code was sent off as the 4-5 favorite off of a runner-up effort in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last month. With jockey Javier Castellano in the saddle, Honor Code stumbled just a bit at the start of the nine-furlong race, but quickly recovered to race in the fourth position early on as Master Lightning led the way through a slow opening quarter of :25.84 seconds. Mental Iceberg and Cairo Prince were tracking the pace in second and third, while Wicked Strong, Intense Holiday, Afleet Accompli, and Matuszak were the trailers.

In the second quarter mile of the race, Master Lightning succeeded in slowing down the pace dramatically, running the second quarter in :26.90 seconds to complete the opening half-mile in :52.74 seconds. During that time frame, Honor Code made a strong move to challenge for the lead, drawing within a half-length over Master Lightning while settling into the second position. Thereafter, the pace quickened considerably, and while Master Lightning was still in front by a head following three-quarters in 1:17.56 seconds, he had to run the third quarter in :24.82 seconds.

Approaching the homestretch, Honor Code made a move to seize command of the race, passing Master Lightning and opening up a bit of a lead. However, he was quickly confronted by Cairo Prince, and the two colts hooked up in a dramatic stretch duel that saw the early advantage go to Cairo Prince. Honor Code, running along his rival's inside, seemed to be beaten when he dropped a half-length behind, and when both colts drifted toward the rail, Honor Code dropped nearly a length behind and seemed to be in very tight quarters. However, in the final furlong, Honor Code found another gear, and battled back tenaciously to just edge Cairo Prince on the wire by a nose. Wicked Strong rallied strongly to finish third, beaten just a half-length.

The final time was 1:52.92 seconds, although that was not truly indicative of how well Honor Code and Cairo Prince ran. In part because of the slow early pace, and in part because of the talent of the top finishers, the final three-eighths of a mile were run in the spectacular time of :35.36 seconds, with a final furlong in 11:79. Intense Holiday, Master Lightning, Matuszak, Afleet Accompli, and Mental Iceberg completed the order of finish.

Honor Code is a ridgling son of A.P. Indy out of Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat. Bred in Kentucky by Dell Ridge Farm, Honor Code has now compiled a record of two wins and a second from three starts, with earnings of $388,000.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 11-30-13

The weekend after Thanksgiving is traditionally a big one for fans of horse racing, and fans of the Kentucky Derby in particular, for it is on that weekend that the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) -- two long-standing and prestigious preps for the Derby -- are run at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs. This year's running of the Remsen promises to be especially exciting, with early Derby favorite Honor Code facing eight talented rivals, including Nashua Stakes (gr. II) winner Cairo Prince and impressive maiden winner Wicked Strong. The Kentucky Jockey Club has also come up strong, featuring impressive allowance winner Almost Famous and Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Tapiture.

In addition, there are a number of other intriguing stakes and maiden races being run across the country, including one especially noteworthy maiden special weight at Aqueduct. As a result, we shall be abridging this week's edition of Triple Crown Countdown a bit. Rather than discuss the Remsen and/or Kentucky Jockey Club in great depth, we shall instead provide a more concise analysis of those races, so that we can spend a bit more time on some of the smaller races. Enjoy!

Remsen Stakes (gr. II)

There's no denying that Honor Code deserves to be favored in this race, based off of his spectacular debut victory and his strong runner-up finish in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) behind Havana, who came back to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) in his next start. The only question is whether or not he will get enough pace to set up his late rally, and personally, I think that Honor Code is good enough to get the job done no matter how fast the early fractions are.

That said, thinking ahead to the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown, it would be nice to see Honor Code flash a bit more speed in the Remsen than he has in his first two starts. If he were to be even just six lengths off an honest pace, I would be thrilled. Granted, his late-running style could prove very successful in a race like the Derby, where a fast pace is almost guaranteed, but when was the last time you saw a deep-closing Derby/Preakness winner? Correct me if I missed someone in my quick mental remembrance, but wouldn't that be Pleasant Colony in 1981?

I have absolutely nothing against a deep-closing running style; as a fan of the sport, I actually prefer it for the excitement it brings. But for the sake of the Triple Crown, I hope Honor Code can learn to be a bit more versatile, as I believe he may have what it takes to win the Triple Crown.

But getting back to the Remsen, there is one horse who stands a very good chance at upsetting Honor Code, and that would be Cairo Prince. Unbeaten in two starts thus far, he unleashed a visually impressive turn-of-foot to seize command of the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) on the far turn, and while the move did come during a slow :25 1/5 third quarter, he did stay on well to win by 2 1/2 lengths with a 25.49 final quarter. He will probably need to improve a bit to defeat Honor Code, but given that he's a young horse, I can't see any reason why he won't. It should be a great matchup!

Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)

Almost Famous won an 8.5-furlong allowance race at Churchill three weeks ago as if he were very, very special horse, and he will get a chance to affirm that belief when he starts as the 6-5 morning line favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Trained by Patrick Byrne, Almost Famous will start from the rail, which could prove a bit troublesome to his front-running style should he hop at the start, like he did in his allowance victory. But assuming he breaks cleanly, Almost Famous should prove very tough to beat.

Dobra Historia, runner-up by six lengths to Almost Famous in that allowance race, is back for another try at the favorite, and is 5-1 on the morning line. A late-running type, Dobra Historia -- like Honor Code -- may need to show a bit more early speed this time around in order to challenge Almost Famous for the win, but win or lose, this Bill Mott-trained son of Unbridled's Song looks like one to watch for the future.

Other logical contenders include Culprit, Notability, and Tapiture, the 1-2-3 finishers in a one-mile maiden special weight here at Churchill last month. The latter two are actually still maidens, although Tapiture did place third in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) two starts back. Determining which of the three will prove best today and in the long run is a difficulty task, but I must point out that Culprit it a regally-bred son of Street Sense out of the A.P. Indy mare Caught in the Act, and looks primed for improvement down the road.

One longshot I am intrigued by is Arctic Slope, who broke his maiden going 8.5 furlongs on the dirt here at Churchill three starts back. He subsequently finished third in the Dixiana Breeders Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland and tenth behind Almost Famous in that one's allowance victory. Why Arctic Slope performed so poorly that day is a question I can't answer, but given his overall record, his 12-1 morning line price looks intriguing.

Other Races of Note

While there are several other intriguing stakes races to be run later this afternoon, the race I'm looking forward to most from this group is actually the fifth race at Aqueduct, a seven-furlong maiden special weight that will feature thirteen runners, following the scratch of Village Warrior.

The reason that I'm so excited about this race is because I'm excited about the debut of Private Label, an unraced son of Empire Maker out of the stakes-winning mare Private Banking. Trained by Chad Brown and owned by Arnold Zetcher, Private Label has recorded a solid series of workouts at Belmont Park, including a :48.26 half-mile breeze from the gate on November 23rd. Another interesting factor in his favor is that Chad Brown nominated him to next month's CashCall Futurity (gr. I) at Betfair Hollywood Park, which suggests to me that Chad Brown thinks highly of this colt. If you like him, he's 8-1 on the morning line. In my opinion, that will be the last time we see odds that high on Private Label in a long time.

At Betfair Hollywood Park, the one-mile Generous Stakes (gr. II) on the turf features a small but talented field of young runners, including Zuma Beach Stakes winner Aotearoa and the unbeaten Pablo Del Monte. The latter has won his first two starts, both at Keeneland, by a combined 12 1/2 lengths for trainer Wesley Ward. If you like him for the Derby, he is currently 51-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1. One other horse that warrants serious consideration is Royal Banker, a British-bred colt making his first start in the United States. Racing for the first time under the care of Eoin Harty, Royal Banker has recorded five solid workouts on the main track at Hollywood, and looks ready to fire off a big race.

The seventh race at Hollywood Park is an intriguing six-furlong maiden special weight that features Oh Billy Billy, a first-time starter from the barn of Bob Baffert, and Pray Hard, a Jerry Hollendorfer-trainee that has finished second in three consecutive maiden special weights.

The highlights of the Gulfstream Park Saturday card include the one-mile Pulpit Stakes on turf -- featuring Awad Stakes winner Storming Inti, who is trained by Chad Brown -- as well as a six-furlong maiden special weight that has drawn Vinceremos, a first-time starter from the barn of Todd Pletcher.

At Churchill Downs, every race is worth watching from either a Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks perspective, as the Saturday card is the annual "Stars of Tomorrow" program that features nothing but races for two-year-olds. The races I'll be watching with the most interest are the fourth (an 8.5-furlong maiden special weight), the eighth (a seven-furlong maiden special weight), the tenth (a one-mile allowance optional claiming race), and the twelfth (another seven-furlong maiden special weight).

That should do it for today! Have fun with the races, everyone!

-Keelerman

2013 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the 2013 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Saturday, November 30th, at Churchill Downs. The 8.5-furlong race has drawn a large and promising field of ten, led by impressive allowance race winner Almost Famous and recent maiden winner Culprit.

1 Almost Famous
2 Culprit
3 Mygalsal
4 Awesome Sky
5 Notability
6 Tapiture
7 Laddie Boy
8 Artctic Slope
9 Dobra Historia
10 Buck Magic

-Keelerman

2013 Remsen Stakes Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $400,000 Remsen Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Aqueduct. The nine-furlong race for two-year-old has drawn an impressive field of nine, led by Champagne Stakes (gr. I) runner-up Honor Code and Nashua Stakes (gr. II) winner Cairo Prince.

1 Noble Moon
2 Master Lightning
3 Afleet Accompli
4 Honor Code
5 Mental Iceberg
6 Matuszak
7 Wicked Strong
8 Intense Holiday
9 Cairo Prince

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Ten 11-26-13

1. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He's heading for Oaklawn Park after a strong two-year-old season that saw him win the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) and place third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). I like that Lukas is taking the same route with this colt as he did with Oxbow, who won this year's Preakness Stakes after prepping at Oaklawn.

2. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
He's only made two starts, but they have been arguably the most impressive performances of any two-year-old thus far this year. After breaking his maiden first-time out at Saratoga -- closing an unprecedented 22 3/4 lengths in the final three-eighths of a mile! -- Honor Code stepped up into the Foxwoods Champagne Stakes (gr. I), where he just failed to catch front-running Havana while losing by a neck. He's scheduled to run in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct this Saturday, where he could jump to the top of everyone's Derby lists with an impressive performance.

3. Shared Belief (Candy Ride - Common Hope, by Storm Cat) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
I won't hesitate to say that Shared Belief's victory in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) was among the most impressive performances by a two-year-old that I have ever seen. After tracking quick fractions of :22.56 and :46.06, Shared Belief absolutely exploded in the final three-eighths of a mile, running his third quarter in :24.35 and his final furlong in a blazing :11.76 en route to a 7 3/4-length victory -- under a hand ride! Whether he can carry his speed for three more furlongs is a legitimate question, but we'll get a chance to see him around two turns in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) in a few weeks.

4. Ride On Curlin (Curlin - Magical Ride, by Storm Cat) Trained by William Gowen
There's no denying that Ride On Curlin has talent, as his track record-breaking maiden victory and third-place finish in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) suggest. However, he has also shown a bit on inconsistency, placing fourth in a slow renewal of the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) and third in the Street Sense Stakes, beaten seven lengths. However, as a son of Curlin, he should only get better with time, and I think he has the potential to be something very, very special.

5. New Year's Day (Street Cry - Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union) Trained by Bob Baffert
He did take advantage of a fast pace in winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but given that he hadn't run since the end of August, his performance was undeniably a strong one. It's hard to say where he might turn up next, but don't expect him to run before the end of the year -- he's getting a bit of a break before gearing up for the Triple Crown prep season.

6. Almost Famous (Unbridled's Song - Wild Gams, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by Patrick Byrne
He rebounded from a fourth-place finish in the Street Sense to win an allowance race at Churchilll by six lengths, leading from gate-to-wire in a highly impressive effort. That performance has earned him the status as likely favorite for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) this Saturday, where he will get a chance to affirm his position as one of the best two-year-olds of the year.

7. Noble Moon (Malibu Moon - Mambo Bell, by Kingmambo) Trained by Todd Pletcher
His third-place finish in Aqueduct's Nashua Stakes (gr. III) may look uninspiring on the surface, but go back and watch the replay. After trailing the field for the first half-mile, Noble Moon unleashed a powerful run on the far outside, sweeping past horses with every stride to reach contention at the top of the stretch. However, by that time, the eventual race winner Cairo Prince had burst to a five- or six-length lead, and while Noble Moon wasn't able to make up that kind of ground, he did stay on well enough to be beaten just three lengths in the end. Assuming he shows more tactical speed in the future -- and there's no reason to think that he won't, since he broke his maiden going six furlongs in gate-to-wire fashion! -- Noble Moon could prove to be a very serious Derby contender in the near future, perhaps as soon as the Remsen Stakes this Saturday.

8. Rise Up (Rockport Harbor - Appenzell, by Johannesburg) Trained by Tom Amoss
This promising colt took advantage of a very poor start from the well-regarded Coastline to win the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) at Delta Downs, but make no mistake about it, Rise Up's performance was very, very good. After setting fractions of :22.82, :46.30, and 1:11.94, Rise Up burst clear of the field at the top of the stretch and stayed on strongly to win by six lengths in a performance that was perhaps even better than that of last year's Jackpot winner Goldencents.

9. Tamarando (Bertrando - Tamarack Bay, by Dehere) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
Unleashed a powerful, sustained rally in the Real Quiet Stakes to win by a bit over three lengths, proving in the process that he can handle two turns. He gets a big test in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) next month, where he will face stablemate Shared Belief, but assuming he puts in another good run, I think he has what it takes to take some major steps forward next year.

10. Havana (Dunkirk - Missy Turtle, by Kyle's Our Man) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Broke his maiden in blazing fashion at Saratoga and came right back to win the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) over Honor Code and Ride On Curlin, but I was a bit disappointed by his performance in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), in which he seemed to have the race sewn up in midstretch before faltering late to finish second behind New Year's Day. There's no doubt that he has the potential to be something very, very special, but after Uncle Mo and Shanghai Bobby -- two other recent Champagne winners that failed to progress as expected at age three -- I'm tempted to take a wait-and-see approach with this speedy colt.

-Keelerman

'All Others' 2-5 favorite in Derby Future Pool #1

The "All Others" option has been listed as the 2-5 morning line favorite for the first 2014 Kentucky Derby future wager pool, which will be held from November 27-30th.

Here is the complete list of horses being offered in the pool, complete with morning line odds:

1 Almost Famous 20-1
2 Bobby's Kitten 50-1
3 Bond Holder 50-1
4 Cairo Prince 30-1
5 Cleburne 50-1
6 Commissioner 50-1
7 Coup de Grace 50-1
8 Financial Mogul 50-1
9 Havana 30-1
10 Honor Code 15-1
11 In Trouble 50-1
12 Kobe's Back 50-1
13 Mexikoma 50-1
14 Misconnect 50-1
15 New Year's Day 20-1
16 Noble Moon 50-1
17 Pablo Del Monte 50-1
18 Ride On Curlin 50-1
19 Rise Up 50-1
20 Shared Belief 30-1
21 Strong Mandate 30-1
22 Tamarando 50-1
23 Tap It Rich 30-1
24 All Others 2-5

-Keelerman

Tamarando proves best in Real Quiet Stakes

Del Mar Futurity winner Tamarando rebounded from a pair of recent third-place finishes when he rallied to a decisive triumph in the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes at Betfair Hollywood Park.

With jockey Rafael Bejarano aboard, Tamarando broke just a bit slowly and soon settled at the rear of the field, ten lengths behind pace-setting Karma King, who led by two lengths through an opening quarter in :23.06 seconds. Life Is a Joy was racing in second, followed closely by favored Green Mask. Better Bet, Electric Eddie, and Beach Hut comprised the group of mid-pack runners, while Mr. Splash led only Tamarando in the early stages.

Following a half-mile in a quick :46.73 seconds, Green Mask made a strong move to challenge for the lead, but Karma King repulsed the challenge and continued to lead through six furlongs in 1:11.71. That was when Tamarando made his move. With a sweeping four-wide rally, Tamarando gobbled up ground at an impressive rate, powering past the leaders just inside the eighth pole before drawing off to win by 3 1/4 lengths. The final time for a mile and a sixteenth was 1:44.22 seconds.

Electric Eddie rallied well to edge Karma King for second by three-quarters of a length, while Green Mask weakened in deep stretch to finish fourth. Life Is a Joy, Mr. Splash, Beach Hut, and Better Bet completed the order of finish.

Tamarando, a two-year-old son of Bertrando out of the Dehere mare Tamarack Bay, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and owned by Mr. and Mrs. Larry D. Williams. The colt has now compiled a record of 3-1-2 from seven starts, with earnings of $355,120.

-Keelerman

Rise Up rises to the occasion in Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes

Jean Lafitte Stakes winner Rise Up declared that he could be a major force on next year's Derby trail when he romped to a six-length triumph in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) at Delta Downs on Saturday afternoon.

Ridden to victory by Gerard Melancon, Rise Up got off to an excellent start from post position ten and quickly assumed command of the lead through an opening quarter mile in a quick :22.82 seconds. Mighty Brown, Roman Unbridled, Rum Point, Casiguapo, and Big Bazinga were also part of the early pace, while Whyruawesome, Flat Gone, Rankhasprivileges, and favored Coastline were the early trailers, the latter having stumbled badly at the start of the race.

Rise Up continued to lead through a half-mile in :46.30, but in the third quarter mile of the race, Casiguapo, Big Bazinga, and Rankhasprivileges moved up to challenge for the lead, with Coastline rallying into contention on the far outside. However, following three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.94, Melancon asked Rise Up to run, and the colt responded with a burst of acceleration that left Casiguapo toiling in his wake. Passing the eighth pole, Rise Up led by three lengths, an advantage which he extended to six lengths at the finish line, which he reached in 1:44.71 for a mile and a sixteenth.

Casiguapo held well to place second, 1 3/4 lengths ahead of Rankhasprivileges, who flattened a bit out after his big move around the far turn. Roman Unbridled overcame a bit of stretch traffic to finish fourth at odds of 89-1. Completing the order of finish were Whyruawesome, Mighty Brown, Big Bazinga, Coastline, Flat Gone, and Rum Point.

Rise Up is trained by Tom Amoss and owned by Paul and Andrena Van Doren. A son of Rockport Harbor out of the Johannesburg mare Appenzell, Rise Up has now won four of his six starts, with earnings of $810,633.

-Keelerman

Tamarando looks to rebound in Real Quiet Stakes

Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) winner Tamarando will look to rebound from two consecutive defeats when he faces seven rivals in the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes at Betfair Hollywood Park.

Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the two-year-old son of Bertrando won the Del Mar Futurity by closing five lengths in the final furlong to triumph by a half-length. This performance was followed by a pair of third-place finishes in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) -- in which Tamarando broke slowly before rallying -- and the Golden State Juvenile Stakes, in which he made up 4 1/2 lengths in the stretch to be beaten just 1 1/2 lengths. These performances -- while defeats -- were impressive enough to make Tamarando the 5-2 morning line favorite in the Real Quiet.

Facing Tamarando are a pair of promising debut winners named Green Mask and Beach Hut. The former, trained by Wesley Ward, broke his maiden by 5 1/4 lengths sprinting six furlongs over the Keeneland Polytrack, while the latter -- trained by Bob Baffert -- won his first start by 3 1/4 lengths over the same distance at Santa Anita Park.

A somewhat surprising 12-1 on the morning line is Better Bet, who defeated Tamarando in the Golden State Juvenile Stakes at odds of 47-1. Electric Eddie and Life Is a Joy -- the second- and fifth-place finishers, respectively, in that race -- are also entered in the Real Quiet.

Rounding out the field are Karma King, who broke his maiden first-time out at Del Mar before finishing second in an allowance race at Golden Gate Fields, and Mr. Splash, who unleashed a powerful late run to break his maiden first-time out at Golden Gate.

Entries:
PP/Horse/Jockey
1 Karma King/Joe Talamo
2 Electric Eddie/Agapito Delgadillo
3 Green Mask/Kent Desormeaux
4 Mr. Splash/Mike Smith
5 Life Is a Joy/Corey Nakatani
6 Tamarando/Rafael Bejarano
7 Better Bet/Martin Pedroza
8 Beach Hut/Martin Garcia

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 11-22-13

Welcome back, fellow racing fans, to Triple Crown Countdown! After a solid five months of Breeders' Cup excitement, it's time to turn our focus to the up-and-coming young horses that will dominate the headlines through the first Saturday in May and beyond.

This week seems like a good place to get started, since Saturday's racing action includes the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) at Delta Downs, a race won last year by eventual Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) winner Goldencents, with Preakness Stakes (gr. I) second- and third-place finishers Itsmyluckyday and Mylute finishing sixth and third, respectively. In addition, with the race offering a total of seventeen Kentucky Derby qualifications points (ten to the winner, four to the runner-up, two to third, and one to fourth), the Delta Downs Jackpot is an especially logical place to open our coverage of the 2014 Triple Crown season.

Without further ado, let's begin!

Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III)
1 1/16th miles at Delta Downs
Entries:
1 Whyruawesome
2 Coastline
3 Roman Unbridled
4 Mighty Brown
5 Rum Point
6 Flat Gone
7 Rankhasprivileges
8 Casiguapo
9 Big Bazinga
10 Rise Up

The morning line favorite at 5-2 is trainer Mark Casse's promising colt Coastline, who has already made a very good impression from just three starts. After finishing second in his debut to the well-regarded colt Almost Famous, Coastline stepped up to break his maiden going seven furlongs on the Keeneland Polytrack, then wheeled right back on three weeks rest to win the one-mile Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs by three lengths. Finishing third that day was Ride On Curlin, a promising colt that had previously run a close third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) behind Havana and Honor Code, two of the most promising young colts of the year thus far.

What made Coastline's effort in the Street Sense especially notable was his final quarter, which he ran in :24.37 seconds. That's a very sharp time for a two-year-old, and signals that he should have no trouble stretching out another sixteenth of a mile.

However, the Delta Downs Jackpot will mark his first start around two turns, and the turns at Delta are very tight. For that reason, I believe that Rise Up will be able to offer Coastline a very serious challenge. Trained by Tom Amoss, Rise Up broke his maiden second time out before winning the Mountaineer Juvenile Stakes in his third start. His next start came in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs, where he helped set a fast pace before tiring to finish sixth. A more settled run in the one-mile Jean Lafitte Stakes here at Delta Downs yielded his most impressive performance to date, a 6 1/2-length victory in 1:38.20. Having already proven his affinity for the racing surface, Rise Up may have a bit of an edge over Coastline, despite having to break from the far outside post position.

Another very intriguing entrant is Casiguapo, who ran second in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga two starts back before winding up a distant fourth in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont, which we already mentioned above in regard to the extremely high talent level of the top two finishers. Finishing fourth in a race of that caliber was by no means a disgrace, and Casiguapo should appreciate the drop in class from grade I to grade III level.

Trainer Doug O'Neill won this race last year with Goldencents, and will send out Rum Point for this year's edition. Now, Rum Point is coming off of the worst performance of his career -- a twelfth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), beaten nearly twenty lengths -- but it's important to note that he chased a very solid pace for three-quarters of a mile, and should find the pace much easier to deal with today. As a result, I would expect him to improve substantially on Saturday, perhaps even enough to contend for the top spot.

Mighty Brown and Flat Gone finished second and third, respectively, in the Jean Lafitte Stakes behind Rise Up, although the former did finish 7 1/4 lengths clear of the latter. It's encouraging that both horses have experience here at Delta, but both would have to step up a few notches to challenge for those elusive Kentucky Derby qualifications points.

Speaking of Derby points, Big Bazinga has already earned four of them, having placed second in the Grey Stakes (gr. III) at Woodbine last time out, beaten just a half-length. The Delta Downs Jackpot will mark his first start on dirt, but he does have a great deal of experience around two-turns, and top jockey Rosie Napravnik has been secured to ride him, both of which are very encouraging signs.

Rankhasprivileges has only run once, breaking his maiden going a mile and a sixteenth over the Keeneland Polytrack, but this Kenny McPeek-trained son of Einstein was very impressive despite racing greenly, and will be running on Lasix for the first time. Whether he can win a race of this magnitude in just his second start -- and his first on dirt -- is open to debate, but the talent is definitely there, and he has done the majority of his training on the dirt at Churchill Downs. I'm really looking forward to seeing how this colt progresses further down the road.

Rounding out the field are Whyruawesome and Roman Unbridled. The former is graded stakes-placed, having finished second in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III) earlier this year, but his last two starts have been a bit disappointing, and this will be his first run on dirt. Roman Unbridled required four starts to break his maiden, finally doing so here at Delta Downs, then ran fourth in the Jean Lafitte Stakes, beaten sixteen lengths.

Selections: Rise Up, Coastline, Rankhasprivileges, Rum Point

-Keelerman

Breeders' Cup Saturday 2013

2:59 PM CT: Happy Breeders' Cup Saturday, everyone! As I sit writing this, two of the day's nine Breeders' Cup races have been run, with Ria Antonio claiming the Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) via the disqualification of She's a Tiger, and Dank proving much the best in winning the Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I).

The result of the Juvenile Fillies was marred by the death of Secret Compass, who broke down on the far turn and had to be euthanized. Her jockey, John Velazquez, has been hospitalized and is off his remaining mounts for the day, which include reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan in the Breeders' Cup Mile and Belmont Stakes (gr. I) winner Palace Malice in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

On a happier note, the Filly and Mare Turf was a thrilling race, with at least five or six horses in contention turning for home. Favored Dank proved best, holding off a charge from fellow British invader Romantica to win by about a length. Alterite finished best of the American fillies, edging Emollient by a head for the third spot.

It has been reported that Jose Lezcano will replace John Velazquez on Wise Dan in the Mile.

3:54 PM: Many people doubted whether Groupie Doll was the same filly this year as she was in 2012, when she dominated the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint in stellar fashion. But with Rajiv Maragh aboard, Groupie Doll burst to the lead in the homestretch and held off determined late rallies from Judy the Beauty and Dance Card to win the Filly and Mare Sprint for the second consecutive year.

With Dance to Bristol finishing off-the-board, Groupie Doll now has a legitimate claim to a second consecutive Eclipse award title as champion female sprinter. Her other efforts this year include a win in the Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes (gr. II) and a third-place finish in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II).

The next race on the card is the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (gr. I), which begins the pick six. Mizdirection, winner of this race last year, is the current favorite at 5-2. I personally an intrigued by Rock Me Baby, who is 19-1 off of troubled seventh-place finish in the Eddie D Stakes. With Joe Talamo aboard, he could be a live longshot in this wide-open race.

Rajiv Maragh, fresh off his victory in the Filly and Mare Sprint, replaces John Velazquez on Spring to the Sky.

4:16 PM: If you were considering trying to beat Little Mike in the Turf, Trinniberg in the Sprint, Wise Dan in the Mile, and Fort Larned in the Classic . . . well, it might be wise to rethink your strategy! :) Mizdirection just became the third repeat winner of this year's Breeders' Cup, following Beholder and Groupie Doll, when she rallied in deep stretch to edge Reneesgotzip and Tightend Touchdown, who finished in a dead-heat for second after battling for the lead through fractions of :21.47, :43.36, and 1:06.02. The final time was 1:12.25 seconds.

Actually, the form from last year's Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint held up very well this year. Mizdirection won the race for the second consecutive year, 2012 third-place finisher Reneesgotzip moved up to second, and 2012 runner-up Unbridled's Note rallied to be fourth this year.

Coming up next is the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), where Gary Stevens will pick up the mount on morning line favorite Havana. At the present time, though, with 22 minutes to post time, it is the one-raced Tap It Rich that is favored at odds of 2-1. Havana is 4-1.

4:36 PM: It has been announced that Rafael Bejarano will ride Palace Malice in the Classic, assuming John Velazquez is not back in time to ride the end of the card.

5:08 PM: It looked like Gary Stevens was going to add another Breeders' Cup victory to his already stellar record when Havana surged to the lead turning for home in the Juvenile, but the previously unbeaten colt got a bit leg-weary late and succumbed late to New Year's Day, the more lightly regarded of the two Bob Baffert-trained colts in the race. Strong Mandate finished third in an impressive performance, dueling with Conquest Titan through very quick fractions and battling on gamely throughout the stretch to lose by only about two lengths.

Next up is the Breeders' Cup Turf, where Joel Rosario will replace John Velazquez aboard Point of Entry. With ten minutes to post time, The Fugue is favored at 3-2.

5:34 PM: The Fugue looked like a winner after making a powerful run around the far turn to take the lead at the top of the stretch, but Magician -- an Irish invader trained by Aidan O'Brien -- came flying with a spectacular late rally to edge the filly by a half-length. Indy Point ran a huge race as well to finish third, beaten little more than a length.

6:34 PM: After making a strong run along the rail to take the lead turning for home, I thought the Gentlemen's Bet had the Breeders' Cup Sprint all but sewn up. Then Secret Circle came rallying on the far outside to become the fourth repeat Breeders' Cup winner of 2013, having previously won the Juvenile Sprint in 2011. Longshot Laugh Track rallied powerfully to finish second, while Gentlemen's Bet held on to third.

Up next is the much-anticipated Breeders' Cup Mile, where last year's winner Wise Dan will attempt to stake his claim for a second consecutive Horse of the Year title.

Breeders' Cup Saturday 2013 Selections

Five Breeders' Cup races down, and nine to go! Can Wise Dan repeat in the Breeders' Cup Mile? Can Game On Dude win the Classic in his third attempt? Can She's a Tiger give Gary Stevens the second Breeders' Cup victory of his comeback? These questions and more will be answered on the second day of Breeders' Cup 2013. Let's make some selections!

Juvenile Fillies: You can make a solid case that Sweet Reason was the best filly in the Frizette, given that she was beaten little more than a length after a poor start, but after her unusual training pattern leading into this race, I'm leaning toward Frizette winner Artemis Agrotera. But at the same time, the sheer brilliance of She's a Tiger worries me, and it's possible that she could end the race on the far turn. Concave could be an interesting longshot, even though she's never run farther than seven furlongs, as her pedigree suggests that two-turns in a possibility, and she was rallying pretty well at the end of the Del Mar Debutante.SELECTIONS: She's a Tiger, Artemis Agrotera, Concave, Sweet Reason

Filly and Mare Turf: The European invaders Dank and Romantica look like solid favorites, but they've drawn the two innermost post positions, and I am a bit worried about traffic issues. That's why I am leaning toward Laughing, who should be able to accelerate her final quarter mile in at least :22.50 seconds over the rock-hard Santa Anita turf course. The question is, can anyone else run that last quarter faster? Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix, the 1-2 finishers in the Rodeo Drive Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita, should also be in the mix.
SELECTIONS: Laughing, Dank, Romantica, Marketing Mix

Filly and Mare Sprint: I believe that the surface and distance of this race are just what the doctor ordered for Groupie Doll, and I view her as a very, very solid favorite under these circumstances. Dance to Bristol and Dance Card both intrigue me off of their performances in the Gallant Bloom, but perhaps even more interesting is Summer Applause, who shortens up in distance off of twelve consecutive route races. This reminds me quite a bit of Switch, who placed in three consecutive editions of the Filly and Mare Sprint while twice prepping in route races. I also like Ismene, who was quite impressive on the dirt here at Santa Anita two years ago. She looks like the quickest filly over the first quarter mile, and she has the advantage of starting outside fellow front-runner Teddy's Promise.
SELECTIONS: Groupie Doll, Ismene, Summer Applause, Dance to Bristol

Turf Sprint: In my opinion, experience on the downhill turf course is a must, but that doesn't narrow down the field a whole lot, does it? :) Last year's 1-2-3 finishers Mizdirection, Unbridled's Note, and Reneesgotzip all look solid here once again, as do Eddie D Stakes 1-2 finishers, Chips All In and Boat Trip, but I very intrigued Rock Me Baby, who was beaten just 2 1/2 lengths when seventh in the Eddie D. He looked ready to make a bit of a run in the stretch, but got boxed in and lacked room throughout the final 150 yards or so. Overall, he has decent form on the downhill turf, and will be ridden by Joe Talamo, who won this race in 2009 aboard California Flag.
SELECTIONS: Rock Me Baby, Mizdirection, Boat Trip, Unbridled's Note

Juvenile: I was very confident in the chances of Strong Mandate up until the post position draw, but starting from gate fourteen is by no means appealing. Havana's post draw doesn't bother me nearly as much, as I feel he has the speed to clear most of the field, but in my opinion, his real problem is Diamond Bachelor. This colt is headstrong, very fast, and almost out-of-control at times -- remember, he ran the opening quarter mile of the one-mile Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes in :21.97 seconds. I expect him to go to the lead on Saturday, with Havana chasing him through what may very well be a ridiculous pace. Determining who will take advantage of it is not easy, but perhaps Dance With Fate might have a shot if he takes back further than he did in the FrontRunner Stakes? Tap It Rich took advantage of a fast pace in his maiden win, perhaps he can do so again? We Miss Artie's Beyer speed figures may not be flashy, but he did finish up nicely in the Breeders' Futurity, and has a lot of experience training on dirt. Really, this race looks completely wide-open, and I can't really be confident in any selection. Havana comes into this race is much the same way that 2010 Juvenile champion Uncle Mo did, right down the almost identical Beyers. Perhaps he is just the best horse in this race. Update from Saturday: After what appeared to be a severe speed bias presented itself during Friday's Breeders' Cup card, I am beginning to like the chances of Diamond Bachelor and Havana more and more with each passing hour. Perhaps the bias can carry them 1-2 around the track . . .
SELECTIONS: Diamond Bachelor, Havana, Strong Mandate, Dance With Fate

Turf: The Fugue should have won the Filly and Mare Turf last year, and I believe she is quite a bit better this year than last, which makes her a solid favorite to win this race. The rest of the contenders look pretty evenly matched, with seemingly little separating Little Mike, Big Blue Kitten, and Real Solution. Indy Point's victory in the John Henry Turf Championship was among the most visually impressive performances I have seen all year, and the final time was spectacular. With that in mind, I'll take him as my second choice behind The Fugue, with utmost respect to the Big Blue Kitten, Real Solution, and Little Mike.
SELECTIONS: The Fugue, Indy Point, Real Solution

Sprint: Private Zone was as game as could be in winning the Vosburgh Invitational, but he may have been aided by the track, and he wasn't challenged during the early stages of the race. I was leaning toward Justin Phillip to turn the tables on Saturday, but then he had to go and draw the rail. Fast Bullet can be brilliant at times, but exactly the opposite at others. If you believe there was a speed bias at Santa Anita during last year's Breeders' Cup, it's worth noting that Fast Bullet was the only speed horse that failed to take advantage of it. So I guess my selection is Gentlemen's Bet, who I believe had legitimate excuses in his last two starts. If he can work out a stalking trip from gate three -- which could be challenging, I admit -- I believe he has what it takes to find the winner's circle at a decent price. Update from Saturday: Once again, the presence of the speed bias has caused me to re-think my selections. All of a sudden, Private Zone's chances are looking much, much better than before. However, I'll take a wild chance with Sum of the Parts, who finished fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint in a strong front-running performance.
SELECTIONS: Sum of the Parts, Private Zone, Gentlemen's Bet, Justin Phillip

Mile: After drawing post eight, Wise Dan looks almost unbeatable in this race. I envision him stalking Obviously and Silver Max in the early stages, taking over in the stretch, and breaking his own track record in the process. :) I respect the chances of Silver Max, but I don't believe he will be able to handle the pace pressure of Obviously, who I feel is ready to rebound in a big way on Saturday. Olympic Glory has great form in Europe, but I seem to remember hearing a mention of him blowing a turn in a European race this year . . . probably not a good sign, and after Excelebration's disappointment last year off a two-week rest, I guess I can't see Olympic Glory winning this race. As in interesting longshot, I like Bright Thought, who is unbeaten and virtually untested on the Santa Anita turf. Having no races since March is a concern, but perhaps he can get a piece of it from mid-pack.
SELECTIONS: Wise Dan, Obviously, Bright Though, No Jet Lag

Classic: I do believe that Game On Dude is the best he's ever been coming into this race, and assuming he gets off to a good start, I believe he can take this field all the way on the front end, no matter how fast the pace. Mucho Macho Man and Palace Malice look like the best of the mid-pack runners, and I can envision either one of them getting up to win under the right circumstances. The only other horse I really like is Paynter, who ran such an odd race in the Awesome Again Stakes. He seems to be training as well as ever, and perhaps he can end his fairytale comeback with a victory in the Classic.
SELECTIONS: Game On Dude, Mucho Macho Man, Palace Malice, Paynter

-Keelerman