Five Breeders' Cup races down, and nine to go! Can Wise Dan repeat in the Breeders' Cup Mile? Can Game On Dude win the Classic in his third attempt? Can She's a Tiger give Gary Stevens the second Breeders' Cup victory of his comeback? These questions and more will be answered on the second day of Breeders' Cup 2013. Let's make some selections!
Juvenile Fillies: You can make a solid case that Sweet Reason was the best filly in the Frizette, given that she was beaten little more than a length after a poor start, but after her unusual training pattern leading into this race, I'm leaning toward Frizette winner Artemis Agrotera. But at the same time, the sheer brilliance of She's a Tiger worries me, and it's possible that she could end the race on the far turn. Concave could be an interesting longshot, even though she's never run farther than seven furlongs, as her pedigree suggests that two-turns in a possibility, and she was rallying pretty well at the end of the Del Mar Debutante.SELECTIONS: She's a Tiger, Artemis Agrotera, Concave, Sweet Reason
Juvenile Fillies: You can make a solid case that Sweet Reason was the best filly in the Frizette, given that she was beaten little more than a length after a poor start, but after her unusual training pattern leading into this race, I'm leaning toward Frizette winner Artemis Agrotera. But at the same time, the sheer brilliance of She's a Tiger worries me, and it's possible that she could end the race on the far turn. Concave could be an interesting longshot, even though she's never run farther than seven furlongs, as her pedigree suggests that two-turns in a possibility, and she was rallying pretty well at the end of the Del Mar Debutante.SELECTIONS: She's a Tiger, Artemis Agrotera, Concave, Sweet Reason
Filly and Mare Turf: The European invaders Dank and Romantica look like solid favorites, but they've drawn the two innermost post positions, and I am a bit worried about traffic issues. That's why I am leaning toward Laughing, who should be able to accelerate her final quarter mile in at least :22.50 seconds over the rock-hard Santa Anita turf course. The question is, can anyone else run that last quarter faster? Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix, the 1-2 finishers in the Rodeo Drive Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita, should also be in the mix.
SELECTIONS: Laughing, Dank, Romantica, Marketing Mix
Filly and Mare Sprint: I believe that the surface and distance of this race are just what the doctor ordered for Groupie Doll, and I view her as a very, very solid favorite under these circumstances. Dance to Bristol and Dance Card both intrigue me off of their performances in the Gallant Bloom, but perhaps even more interesting is Summer Applause, who shortens up in distance off of twelve consecutive route races. This reminds me quite a bit of Switch, who placed in three consecutive editions of the Filly and Mare Sprint while twice prepping in route races. I also like Ismene, who was quite impressive on the dirt here at Santa Anita two years ago. She looks like the quickest filly over the first quarter mile, and she has the advantage of starting outside fellow front-runner Teddy's Promise.
SELECTIONS: Groupie Doll, Ismene, Summer Applause, Dance to Bristol
Turf Sprint: In my opinion, experience on the downhill turf course is a must, but that doesn't narrow down the field a whole lot, does it? :) Last year's 1-2-3 finishers Mizdirection, Unbridled's Note, and Reneesgotzip all look solid here once again, as do Eddie D Stakes 1-2 finishers, Chips All In and Boat Trip, but I very intrigued Rock Me Baby, who was beaten just 2 1/2 lengths when seventh in the Eddie D. He looked ready to make a bit of a run in the stretch, but got boxed in and lacked room throughout the final 150 yards or so. Overall, he has decent form on the downhill turf, and will be ridden by Joe Talamo, who won this race in 2009 aboard California Flag.
SELECTIONS: Rock Me Baby, Mizdirection, Boat Trip, Unbridled's Note
Juvenile: I was very confident in the chances of Strong Mandate up until the post position draw, but starting from gate fourteen is by no means appealing. Havana's post draw doesn't bother me nearly as much, as I feel he has the speed to clear most of the field, but in my opinion, his real problem is Diamond Bachelor. This colt is headstrong, very fast, and almost out-of-control at times -- remember, he ran the opening quarter mile of the one-mile Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes in :21.97 seconds. I expect him to go to the lead on Saturday, with Havana chasing him through what may very well be a ridiculous pace. Determining who will take advantage of it is not easy, but perhaps Dance With Fate might have a shot if he takes back further than he did in the FrontRunner Stakes? Tap It Rich took advantage of a fast pace in his maiden win, perhaps he can do so again? We Miss Artie's Beyer speed figures may not be flashy, but he did finish up nicely in the Breeders' Futurity, and has a lot of experience training on dirt. Really, this race looks completely wide-open, and I can't really be confident in any selection. Havana comes into this race is much the same way that 2010 Juvenile champion Uncle Mo did, right down the almost identical Beyers. Perhaps he is just the best horse in this race. Update from Saturday: After what appeared to be a severe speed bias presented itself during Friday's Breeders' Cup card, I am beginning to like the chances of Diamond Bachelor and Havana more and more with each passing hour. Perhaps the bias can carry them 1-2 around the track . . .
SELECTIONS: Diamond Bachelor, Havana, Strong Mandate, Dance With Fate
Turf: The Fugue should have won the Filly and Mare Turf last year, and I believe she is quite a bit better this year than last, which makes her a solid favorite to win this race. The rest of the contenders look pretty evenly matched, with seemingly little separating Little Mike, Big Blue Kitten, and Real Solution. Indy Point's victory in the John Henry Turf Championship was among the most visually impressive performances I have seen all year, and the final time was spectacular. With that in mind, I'll take him as my second choice behind The Fugue, with utmost respect to the Big Blue Kitten, Real Solution, and Little Mike.
SELECTIONS: The Fugue, Indy Point, Real Solution
Sprint: Private Zone was as game as could be in winning the Vosburgh Invitational, but he may have been aided by the track, and he wasn't challenged during the early stages of the race. I was leaning toward Justin Phillip to turn the tables on Saturday, but then he had to go and draw the rail. Fast Bullet can be brilliant at times, but exactly the opposite at others. If you believe there was a speed bias at Santa Anita during last year's Breeders' Cup, it's worth noting that Fast Bullet was the only speed horse that failed to take advantage of it. So I guess my selection is Gentlemen's Bet, who I believe had legitimate excuses in his last two starts. If he can work out a stalking trip from gate three -- which could be challenging, I admit -- I believe he has what it takes to find the winner's circle at a decent price. Update from Saturday: Once again, the presence of the speed bias has caused me to re-think my selections. All of a sudden, Private Zone's chances are looking much, much better than before. However, I'll take a wild chance with Sum of the Parts, who finished fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint in a strong front-running performance.
SELECTIONS: Sum of the Parts, Private Zone, Gentlemen's Bet, Justin Phillip
Mile: After drawing post eight, Wise Dan looks almost unbeatable in this race. I envision him stalking Obviously and Silver Max in the early stages, taking over in the stretch, and breaking his own track record in the process. :) I respect the chances of Silver Max, but I don't believe he will be able to handle the pace pressure of Obviously, who I feel is ready to rebound in a big way on Saturday. Olympic Glory has great form in Europe, but I seem to remember hearing a mention of him blowing a turn in a European race this year . . . probably not a good sign, and after Excelebration's disappointment last year off a two-week rest, I guess I can't see Olympic Glory winning this race. As in interesting longshot, I like Bright Thought, who is unbeaten and virtually untested on the Santa Anita turf. Having no races since March is a concern, but perhaps he can get a piece of it from mid-pack.
SELECTIONS: Wise Dan, Obviously, Bright Though, No Jet Lag
Classic: I do believe that Game On Dude is the best he's ever been coming into this race, and assuming he gets off to a good start, I believe he can take this field all the way on the front end, no matter how fast the pace. Mucho Macho Man and Palace Malice look like the best of the mid-pack runners, and I can envision either one of them getting up to win under the right circumstances. The only other horse I really like is Paynter, who ran such an odd race in the Awesome Again Stakes. He seems to be training as well as ever, and perhaps he can end his fairytale comeback with a victory in the Classic.
SELECTIONS: Game On Dude, Mucho Macho Man, Palace Malice, Paynter
-Keelerman
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