We
are now less than nineteen hours away from the first Breeders' Cup race of
2013, so without further ado, here are my selections for Friday's races!
Marathon: I really want to like Ever Rider in this race, but his front-running style might not be best for a race of this distance, and he was not nearly as accomplished in his native country as 2012 Marathon winner Calidoscopio was, and he'll be only a fraction of Calidoscopio's odds. Worldly is well-bred for this distance, comes off of a nice third-place finish in the Homecoming Classic at Churchill Downs and should be able to grind on longer than most of his rivals. Pool Play intrigues me as the only horse in the race to have won at this distance, and maybe his recently-developed habit of losing contact with the field early on will prove beneficial in this very lengthy race.
SELECTIONS: Worldly, Pool Play, Ever Rider, Indian Jones
Juvenile Turf: I feel like Bobby's Kitten is by far the best of the American hopefuls, and I believe he has an excellent chance at upstaging the European invaders. The acceleration he displayed in winning the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. II) was breathtaking, and if he can replicate that on Friday, I don't think he can lose. Of the Europeans, I like Giovanni Boldini best. Being proven around left-handed turns is a major plus for me, and he third-place finish to the highly-regarded Toormore in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Ire-I) was respectable enough. For the same reason, I like Outstrip, who ran Toormore to a neck in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, proving in that race that he can negotiate a tight turn, albeit a right-handed one. Fans of Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) winner Poker Player might want to take a look at All Cash, the maiden that finished a close fourth in the Bourbon Stakes. Granted, he didn't quicken as well as I would have liked in the stretch, but he didn't get the best of trips, and is definitely bred for the turf.
SELECTIONS: Bobby's Kitten, Giovanni Boldini, Outstrip, All Cash
Dirt Mile: The fact that Verrazano, Pants On Fire, and Goldencents drew the three outside post positions could make this race ripe for an upset, and with that in mind, I'm leaning toward Golden Ticket. Shortening up in distance off of a fourth-place finish in the Awesome Again Stakes (gr. I), and with a fast pace in front of him, I expect to see Golden Ticket save ground early and come running late under Joel Rosario. Hymn Book also intrigues me off of that promising third-place finish in the Kelso Handicap, and Taptowne could be a factor if he breaks cleanly and makes the lead from the rail. Brujo de Olleros held off Hymn Book in finishing second in the Kelso, and also possesses a bit more tactical speed, which could allow him to get the jump on the deeper closers turning for home. Goldencents is training sharply and has won around two turns in the past, but his outside draw could really compromise his chances.
SELECTIONS: Golden Ticket, Goldencents, Hymn Book, Brujo de Olleros
Juvenile Fillies Turf: The outside draw for Testa Rossi doesn't bother me nearly as much as the outside draw for possible favorite My Conquestadory, as I expect Testa Rossi to drop back early on and save ground before rallying in the homestretch. On sheer talent, she looks like the best of the Americans to me, and she proved in France that she can win with Lasix, which is a plus. However, the European pair of Al Thakhira and Chriselliam both drew good gate positions, and if they can get the jump on Testa Rossi turning for home, they should prove tough to catch. Vorda merits respect as a group I winner, but having never raced beyond six furlongs -- and never around a turn, for that matter -- I'm having trouble warming up to her chances. That said, this is one of those races where I can't toss anyone with confidence. Street Sailing could be a nice longshot, as her turn-of-foot at Keeneland was exceptional, slow pace or not.
SELECTIONS: Al Thakhira, Testa Rossi, Chriselliam, Street Sailing
Distaff: Royal Delta should be able to make the lead while breaking from the inside of Beholder, and I don't believe she'll be relinquishing it. I do believe that she was not at her best for the Beldame, but her subsequent training suggests that she is as good as ever, and a three-peat in this race looks very possible. Beholder has a great deal of speed and the ability to accelerate powerfully in the homestretch, but she has never faced a fellow front-runner with the talent of Royal Delta. Princess of Sylmar can certainly win this, and it's great to have her in the race, but I feel like she'll need a destructive pace duel from Beholder and Royal Delta in order to win, as the latter two have been training so well for this race that I find it hard to envision them both losing.SELECTIONS: Royal Delta, Beholder, Princess of Sylmar, Authenticity
-Keelerman
Marathon: I really want to like Ever Rider in this race, but his front-running style might not be best for a race of this distance, and he was not nearly as accomplished in his native country as 2012 Marathon winner Calidoscopio was, and he'll be only a fraction of Calidoscopio's odds. Worldly is well-bred for this distance, comes off of a nice third-place finish in the Homecoming Classic at Churchill Downs and should be able to grind on longer than most of his rivals. Pool Play intrigues me as the only horse in the race to have won at this distance, and maybe his recently-developed habit of losing contact with the field early on will prove beneficial in this very lengthy race.
SELECTIONS: Worldly, Pool Play, Ever Rider, Indian Jones
Juvenile Turf: I feel like Bobby's Kitten is by far the best of the American hopefuls, and I believe he has an excellent chance at upstaging the European invaders. The acceleration he displayed in winning the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. II) was breathtaking, and if he can replicate that on Friday, I don't think he can lose. Of the Europeans, I like Giovanni Boldini best. Being proven around left-handed turns is a major plus for me, and he third-place finish to the highly-regarded Toormore in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes (Ire-I) was respectable enough. For the same reason, I like Outstrip, who ran Toormore to a neck in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood, proving in that race that he can negotiate a tight turn, albeit a right-handed one. Fans of Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) winner Poker Player might want to take a look at All Cash, the maiden that finished a close fourth in the Bourbon Stakes. Granted, he didn't quicken as well as I would have liked in the stretch, but he didn't get the best of trips, and is definitely bred for the turf.
SELECTIONS: Bobby's Kitten, Giovanni Boldini, Outstrip, All Cash
Dirt Mile: The fact that Verrazano, Pants On Fire, and Goldencents drew the three outside post positions could make this race ripe for an upset, and with that in mind, I'm leaning toward Golden Ticket. Shortening up in distance off of a fourth-place finish in the Awesome Again Stakes (gr. I), and with a fast pace in front of him, I expect to see Golden Ticket save ground early and come running late under Joel Rosario. Hymn Book also intrigues me off of that promising third-place finish in the Kelso Handicap, and Taptowne could be a factor if he breaks cleanly and makes the lead from the rail. Brujo de Olleros held off Hymn Book in finishing second in the Kelso, and also possesses a bit more tactical speed, which could allow him to get the jump on the deeper closers turning for home. Goldencents is training sharply and has won around two turns in the past, but his outside draw could really compromise his chances.
SELECTIONS: Golden Ticket, Goldencents, Hymn Book, Brujo de Olleros
Juvenile Fillies Turf: The outside draw for Testa Rossi doesn't bother me nearly as much as the outside draw for possible favorite My Conquestadory, as I expect Testa Rossi to drop back early on and save ground before rallying in the homestretch. On sheer talent, she looks like the best of the Americans to me, and she proved in France that she can win with Lasix, which is a plus. However, the European pair of Al Thakhira and Chriselliam both drew good gate positions, and if they can get the jump on Testa Rossi turning for home, they should prove tough to catch. Vorda merits respect as a group I winner, but having never raced beyond six furlongs -- and never around a turn, for that matter -- I'm having trouble warming up to her chances. That said, this is one of those races where I can't toss anyone with confidence. Street Sailing could be a nice longshot, as her turn-of-foot at Keeneland was exceptional, slow pace or not.
SELECTIONS: Al Thakhira, Testa Rossi, Chriselliam, Street Sailing
Distaff: Royal Delta should be able to make the lead while breaking from the inside of Beholder, and I don't believe she'll be relinquishing it. I do believe that she was not at her best for the Beldame, but her subsequent training suggests that she is as good as ever, and a three-peat in this race looks very possible. Beholder has a great deal of speed and the ability to accelerate powerfully in the homestretch, but she has never faced a fellow front-runner with the talent of Royal Delta. Princess of Sylmar can certainly win this, and it's great to have her in the race, but I feel like she'll need a destructive pace duel from Beholder and Royal Delta in order to win, as the latter two have been training so well for this race that I find it hard to envision them both losing.SELECTIONS: Royal Delta, Beholder, Princess of Sylmar, Authenticity
-Keelerman
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