In recent years, the Breeders' Cup Turf has been dominated by European shippers. Foreign-trained horses have won four of the last five runnings of the race, and swept the top two positions in both 2008 and 2010. Last year, it took a near world-record performance for American representatives Little Mike and Point of Entry to deny the Irish-trained St. Nicholas Abbey a victory in the Turf, thus ending the three-year European domination of the race.
As of a couple weeks ago, it seemed very possible that 2012 would wind up as an aberration. Potential European participation in the 2013 Breeders' Cup Turf appeared to be strong, with three-time European classic winner Camelot, Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-I) winner Flintshire, and even the powerful four-time Group I winner Novellist under consideration for the race.
Then things kind of fell apart. Camelot was injured during a morning gallop on October 14th and retired. Novellist missed the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) due to illness, then had his schedule changed to target the Japan Cup (Jpn-I) in late November. Flintshire was simply removed from consideration.
All of a sudden, the European force was decimated. Not so on the other side of the Atlantic. With Little Mike back in form after his victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. I), Point of Entry back in serious training following an early-summer injury, and a host of new American contenders in the mix, it seems likely that the Americans will have a very good chance at defeating the Europeans once again.
That said, what remains of the European brigade is a very potent pair of runners that could definitely make their presence felt under the right circumstances. The top contender would appear to be The Fugue, an Irish mare coming off of an excellent win in the Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes (Ire-I), in which she defeated the powerful three-time group I winner Al Kazeem in decisive fashion, with Irish Derby (Ire-I) winner Trading Leather finishing a well-beaten third. The Fugue already has experience in the Breeders' Cup, having finished third in last year's Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I) despite a very troubled trip.
The other European known to be under serious consideration is Grandeur, who shipped to the United States late last year for a three-race campaign that saw him win the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (gr. II) and Twilight Derby (gr. II), in addition to placing second in the Hollywood Derby (gr. I) with a tremendous late rally. His best performance this year was a runner-up effort in the Sky Bet York Stakes (Eng-II) in July, in which he defeated two-time Northern Dancer Stakes (gr. I) winner Wigmore Hall, as well as The Apache, who finished first in the Arlington Million Stakes (gr. I) this summer before being disqualified and placed second for interference. Interestingly, Grandeur placed seventh in that same race, beaten 4 1/2 lengths after getting agitated in the paddock.
It is possible that additional European runners could enter the fray; with Camelot out, trainer Aiden O'Brien could quite possibly come up with another contender from his deep arsenal of talented racehorses. But at the present time, it appears that the American hopefuls will outnumber their European counterparts on at least a 6-1 basis, and unless The Fugue or Grandeur can come up with their best efforts on November 2nd, I would be tempted -- for the first time in many years! -- to side with the Americans in this year's Breeders' Cup Turf.
-Keelerman
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