The weekend after Thanksgiving is traditionally a big one
for fans of horse racing, and fans of the Kentucky Derby in particular, for it
is on that weekend that the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) and Kentucky Jockey Club
Stakes (gr. II) -- two long-standing and prestigious preps for the Derby -- are
run at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs. This year's running of the Remsen promises
to be especially exciting, with early Derby favorite Honor Code facing
eight talented rivals, including Nashua Stakes (gr. II) winner Cairo Prince and
impressive maiden winner Wicked Strong. The Kentucky Jockey Club has
also come up strong, featuring impressive allowance winner Almost Famous and
Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Tapiture.
In addition, there are a number of other intriguing
stakes and maiden races being run across the country, including one especially
noteworthy maiden special weight at Aqueduct. As a result, we shall be
abridging this week's edition of Triple Crown Countdown a bit. Rather than
discuss the Remsen and/or Kentucky Jockey Club in great depth, we shall instead
provide a more concise analysis of those races, so that we can spend a bit more
time on some of the smaller races. Enjoy!
Remsen Stakes (gr. II)
There's no denying that Honor Code deserves to be
favored in this race, based off of his spectacular debut victory and his strong
runner-up finish in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) behind Havana, who came back
to finish second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) in his next start. The
only question is whether or not he will get enough pace to set up his late
rally, and personally, I think that Honor Code is good enough to get the job
done no matter how fast the early fractions are.
That said, thinking ahead to the Kentucky Derby and the
Triple Crown, it would be nice to see Honor Code flash a bit more speed in the
Remsen than he has in his first two starts. If he were to be even just six
lengths off an honest pace, I would be thrilled. Granted, his late-running
style could prove very successful in a race like the Derby, where a fast pace
is almost guaranteed, but when was the last time you saw a deep-closing
Derby/Preakness winner? Correct me if I missed someone in my quick mental
remembrance, but wouldn't that be Pleasant Colony in 1981?
I have absolutely nothing against a deep-closing running
style; as a fan of the sport, I actually prefer it for the excitement it
brings. But for the sake of the Triple Crown, I hope Honor Code can learn to be
a bit more versatile, as I believe he may have what it takes to win the Triple
Crown.
But getting back to the Remsen, there is one horse who
stands a very good chance at upsetting Honor Code, and that would be Cairo
Prince. Unbeaten in two starts thus far, he unleashed a visually impressive
turn-of-foot to seize command of the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) on the far turn,
and while the move did come during a slow :25 1/5 third quarter, he did stay on
well to win by 2 1/2 lengths with a 25.49 final quarter. He will probably need
to improve a bit to defeat Honor Code, but given that he's a young horse, I
can't see any reason why he won't. It should be a great matchup!
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)
Almost Famous won an 8.5-furlong allowance race at Churchill three weeks ago as if he
were very, very special horse, and he will get a chance to affirm that belief
when he starts as the 6-5 morning line favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club.
Trained by Patrick Byrne, Almost Famous will start from the rail, which could
prove a bit troublesome to his front-running style should he hop at the start,
like he did in his allowance victory. But assuming he breaks cleanly, Almost
Famous should prove very tough to beat.
Dobra Historia, runner-up by six lengths to Almost Famous in that allowance race, is back
for another try at the favorite, and is 5-1 on the morning line. A late-running
type, Dobra Historia -- like Honor Code -- may need to show a bit more early
speed this time around in order to challenge Almost Famous for the win, but win
or lose, this Bill Mott-trained son of Unbridled's Song looks like one to watch
for the future.
Other logical contenders include Culprit, Notability, and
Tapiture, the 1-2-3 finishers in a one-mile maiden special weight here
at Churchill last month. The latter two are actually still maidens, although
Tapiture did place third in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) two starts back.
Determining which of the three will prove best today and in the long run is a
difficulty task, but I must point out that Culprit it a regally-bred son of
Street Sense out of the A.P. Indy mare Caught in the Act, and looks primed for
improvement down the road.
One longshot I am intrigued by is Arctic Slope,
who broke his maiden going 8.5 furlongs on the dirt here at Churchill three
starts back. He subsequently finished third in the Dixiana Breeders Futurity
(gr. I) at Keeneland and tenth behind Almost Famous in that one's allowance
victory. Why Arctic Slope performed so poorly that day is a question I can't
answer, but given his overall record, his 12-1 morning line price looks intriguing.
Other Races of Note
While there are several other intriguing stakes races to
be run later this afternoon, the race I'm looking forward to most from this
group is actually the fifth race at Aqueduct, a seven-furlong maiden special
weight that will feature thirteen runners, following the scratch of Village
Warrior.
The reason that I'm so excited about this race is because
I'm excited about the debut of Private Label, an unraced son of Empire
Maker out of the stakes-winning mare Private Banking. Trained by Chad Brown and
owned by Arnold Zetcher, Private Label has recorded a solid series of workouts
at Belmont Park, including a :48.26 half-mile breeze from the gate on November
23rd. Another interesting factor in his favor is that Chad Brown nominated him
to next month's CashCall Futurity (gr. I) at Betfair Hollywood Park, which
suggests to me that Chad Brown thinks highly of this colt. If you like him,
he's 8-1 on the morning line. In my opinion, that will be the last time we see
odds that high on Private Label in a long time.
At Betfair Hollywood Park, the one-mile Generous Stakes
(gr. II) on the turf features a small but talented field of young runners,
including Zuma Beach Stakes winner Aotearoa and the unbeaten Pablo
Del Monte. The latter has won his first two starts, both at Keeneland, by a
combined 12 1/2 lengths for trainer Wesley Ward. If you like him for the Derby,
he is currently 51-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool #1. One other horse
that warrants serious consideration is Royal Banker, a British-bred colt
making his first start in the United States. Racing for the first time under
the care of Eoin Harty, Royal Banker has recorded five solid workouts on the
main track at Hollywood, and looks ready to fire off a big race.
The seventh race at Hollywood Park is an intriguing
six-furlong maiden special weight that features Oh Billy Billy, a
first-time starter from the barn of Bob Baffert, and Pray Hard, a Jerry
Hollendorfer-trainee that has finished second in three consecutive maiden
special weights.
The highlights of the Gulfstream Park Saturday card
include the one-mile Pulpit Stakes on turf -- featuring Awad Stakes winner Storming
Inti, who is trained by Chad Brown -- as well as a six-furlong maiden
special weight that has drawn Vinceremos, a first-time starter from the
barn of Todd Pletcher.
At Churchill Downs, every race is worth watching from
either a Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks perspective, as the Saturday card is
the annual "Stars of Tomorrow" program that features nothing but
races for two-year-olds. The races I'll be watching with the most interest are
the fourth (an 8.5-furlong maiden special weight), the eighth (a seven-furlong
maiden special weight), the tenth (a one-mile allowance optional claiming
race), and the twelfth (another seven-furlong maiden special weight).
That should do it for today! Have fun with the races,
everyone!
-Keelerman
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