Afleet Again pulled off one of the largest upset in the history of the Breeders' Cup when he caught Birdrun in deep stretch to win the $500,000 Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. III) at odds of 40-1.
Patiently ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, the grey colt settled into mid-pack early on as Pleasant Prince and Baryshnikov set a blazing early pace for the distance of :23.47, :48.05, and 1:12.65. Birdrun was tucked in third along the rail, with Meeznah right behind them in fourth early on. However, Meeznah dropped out of contention after about five or six furlongs and was eased.
On the far turn, Cease made a strong run to take the lead but was quickly confronted by Birdun. The latter took over the lead in deep stretch, but Afleet Again came charging furiously on the outside to win the race by two lengths, completing the mile and three-quarter race in 3:00.39.
Birdrun held second by a head over the late-running Giant Oak, while Pleasant Prince held on surprisingly well to finish fourth. Favored A. U. Miner showed no early speed, dropped way behind, and never got into contention.
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Afleet Again. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Afleet Again. Show all posts
Saturday, November 05, 2011
Breeders' Cup Saturday 2011
1:15 ET - Happy Breeders' Cup Saturday 2011 everyone! The sun is shining at Churchill Downs this afternoon, where the final nine Breeders' Cup races are scheduled to be run over the course of the afternoon.
It is currently five minutes to post time for the first of today's Breeders' Cup races, the $500,000 Marathon (gr. III). At the moment, A. U. Miner is the favorite at 7-2, with Birdrun and Cease the co-second choices at 9-2. Brigantin is 5-1, Meeznah 8-1, and Giant Oak 8-1. Eldaafer, last year's winner, is 12-1.
The main track is labeled fast, while the turf course is still good.
1:46 - The upset-trend started yesterday continued today when Afleet Again upset the Breeders' Cup Marathon at 41-1. Cease looked terrific at the top of the stretch and looked to be on his way to victory, but just couldn't get the distance and tired in the final furlongs. This set the race up for Afleet Again, a beautiful grey colt who rallied on the far outside to win by two. Meeznah looked good early on, tracking the pace in fourth, but suddenly dropped out of contention despite serious urging after about five furlongs and was eased.
Seventeen minutes now until the second BC race of the day, the Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Finale is currently the 5-1 favorite -- yes, 5-1. Caspar Netscher is 6-1, with six others horses between 6-1 and 9-1. This race looks ripe for upset, considering how evenly matched the contenders appear to be.
2:27 - I had the right idea picking a European colt to win, but I had the wrong colt. Wrote dominated in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II), blowing past Excaper and Farraaj to win by two lengths. My selections, Caspar Netscher, never got into contention after being a bit rank early and failed to hit the board.
Up next is the Sprint, where Jackson Bend is the 2-1 favorite. Euroears and Big Drama are both 9-2.
2:53 - Amazombie and Force Freeze put on a terrific show in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, battling eachother down the homestretch with Amazombie coming out on top by a head. Euroears never really had a chance, breaking poorly before being rushed up to help set a blazing pace of :21.12. This was an extremely difficult trip, and so thus he can be forgiven for fading so poorly.
For jockey Mike Smith, it was his fourteenth win in a Breeders' Cup race.
3:55 - The Turf Sprint looked like a very difficult race to handicap on paper, but it really wasn't as 2-1 favorite Regally Ready kicked clear in the stretch to win the race by two lengths. Country Day, Perfect Officer, and Great Attack all ran admirably to fill out the superfecta, but were no match for the winner. I was a bit surprised to see Caracortado and Chamberlain Bridge so close to the early pace, but I guess their outside post positions (14 and 13, respectively) forced them to commit to staying close -- and wide, as it turned out.
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) is currently five minutes away, and the three-year-old Wilburn is currently the 5-2 favorite. Trappe Shot, the morning line favorite, is 3-1.
5:10 - Two more races in the history books. Two favorites lost, but the winners were very logical. Caleb's Posse demonstrated just how much better he is going one turn rather than two in the Dirt Mile when he simply blew past Shackleford in the stretch to win going away.
The turf went to a European shipper as expected, but not one of the favored shippers. St Nicholas Abbey blew past them all in the homestretch to win the race in powerful fashion. Sea Moon ran strongly to be second, but could the missed workout on Thursday have been the difference between winning and losing? Brilliant Speed was a bit of a surprise, for the American colt was not expected to be capable of contending against the five top-class Euros in the race, yet beat Sarafina, Midday, and Await the Dawn to the wire to finish third. As for Sarafina, she just couldn't quicken with the leaders when asked for run at the top of the stretch.
Back to the Dirt Mile. Perhaps this is crazy, but could Caleb's Posse be the Champion three-year-old male of 2011? He now has victories in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I), King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II), Ohio Derby (gr. III), and Smarty Jones Stakes, in addition to a second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Indiana Derby (gr. II).
Let us compare the number of grade I victories earned this year by the top three-year-old colts:
Caleb's Posse - 2
Stay Thirsty - 1
Shackleford - 1
Ruler On Ice - 1
Coil - 1 (Not competing in the Breeders' Cup)
Animal Kingdom - 1 (Out with an injury)
Uncle Mo - 0
To Honor and Serve - 0
I think this leaves Caleb's Posse with very good credentials. If the other three-year-olds all disappoint in the Breeders' Cup Classic, then I believe Caleb's Posse deserves the honor.
5:45 - Hansen probably sewed up the division honors with a narrow victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), holding off a late charge from favored Union Rags to win by a head. I feel that Union Rags was probably the best horse in the race, for he was four wide every step of the way and just -- just! -- missed. Give credit to Hansen for setting a quick pace and holding him off, but Union Rags looks like a legitimate favorite for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Creative Cause and Dullahan also ran huge to be third and fourth, respectively, but Creative Cause did get a dream trip. Dullahan, however, charged from last and fifteen lengths off the pace to miss by about a length. Those four colts look like the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
In just eighteen minutes now, Goldikova shall go for her historic and unimaginable fourth straight victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I). She is currently the 6-5 favorite to complete the sweep, although she will have to break from gate one in order to do it. Gio Ponti is the 6-1 second choice, with Courageous Cat and Strong Suit both 8-1.
6:30 - Wow. . . what can you say? Goldikova is a great horse, and gave it her best shot, but today she just wasn't good enough to hang while trying to win her fourth Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I), an amazing feat that might have never been equaled. But while the same brilliant acceleration that earned her her three victories carried her to the lead in the stretch of today's race, it wasn't enough to hold off the late runs turned in by Court Vision and Turallure, the former of whom got his nose down in front at 64-1 to win the race.
At least Goldikova found herself a worthy successor. Court Vision has previously finished behind Goldikova in this race twice, running fourth in 2009 and fifth in 2010. An unlucky horse who hasn't finished better than fourth in over a year, Court Vision had to circle the field on the far outside, but still found enough run to get the job done. Goldikova tried gallantly to stem off his furious run in deep stretch, and briefly appeared capable of turning him back, but she has never cared for a wet track and perhaps the "good" turf course was one of the reasons why she couldn't get the job done. But nevertheless, no one can take away the fact that she won three straight BC Miles, whereas no horse had ever won any Breeders' Cup event more than twice prior to her. She has earned herself a place in racing history, and most likely the Hall of Fame. What a mare.
6:41 - Okay -- I just saw the will pays for the pick 6. Apparently, someone has managed to come up with Court Vision, Hansen, St Nicholas Abbey, Caleb's Posse, and Regally Ready to be live in the pick 6. But this bettor is not live to any of the favorites. Not Flat Out. Not Havre de Grace. Not Uncle Mo. Not So You Think. This bettor is live to Ruler On Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge.
7:35 - During the final two weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup, all of the reports from those watching the workouts of the Classic horses stated that Drosselmeyer was training beautifully for Bill Mott and was sitting on a huge race. But I doubt that anyone knew just how big a race Drosselmeyer was capable of running until he simply blew past Game On Dude in deep stretch to win the race in completely decisive fashion. For jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bill Mott, Drosselmeyer gave them each their second wins of this year's Breeders' Cup, followed Smith's win in the Sprint and Mott's victory in the Ladies' Classic last night. Give a lot of credit to Game On Dude, who set the pace, turned back Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve, and still had enough left in the tank to hold second. Ruler On Ice came on to be third, while Havre de Grace and Flat out never seriously threatened while finishing fourth and fifth.
It's been an exciting Breeders' Cup, with upsets occuring in eleven of the fifteen races. The winning favorites were Secret Circle (Juvenile Sprint), My Miss Aurelia (Juvenile Fillies), Royal Delta (Ladies' Classic), and Regally Ready (Turf Sprint).
Well, there will be plenty of Eclipse awards to debate during the coming months, including Horse of the Year, Champion Older Male, Champion Three-Year-Old Male, Female Sprinter, and Female Turf Horse. I guess we should get ready to debate. I hope you enjoyed the Breeders' Cup!
-Keelerman
It is currently five minutes to post time for the first of today's Breeders' Cup races, the $500,000 Marathon (gr. III). At the moment, A. U. Miner is the favorite at 7-2, with Birdrun and Cease the co-second choices at 9-2. Brigantin is 5-1, Meeznah 8-1, and Giant Oak 8-1. Eldaafer, last year's winner, is 12-1.
The main track is labeled fast, while the turf course is still good.
1:46 - The upset-trend started yesterday continued today when Afleet Again upset the Breeders' Cup Marathon at 41-1. Cease looked terrific at the top of the stretch and looked to be on his way to victory, but just couldn't get the distance and tired in the final furlongs. This set the race up for Afleet Again, a beautiful grey colt who rallied on the far outside to win by two. Meeznah looked good early on, tracking the pace in fourth, but suddenly dropped out of contention despite serious urging after about five furlongs and was eased.
Seventeen minutes now until the second BC race of the day, the Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Finale is currently the 5-1 favorite -- yes, 5-1. Caspar Netscher is 6-1, with six others horses between 6-1 and 9-1. This race looks ripe for upset, considering how evenly matched the contenders appear to be.
2:27 - I had the right idea picking a European colt to win, but I had the wrong colt. Wrote dominated in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II), blowing past Excaper and Farraaj to win by two lengths. My selections, Caspar Netscher, never got into contention after being a bit rank early and failed to hit the board.
Up next is the Sprint, where Jackson Bend is the 2-1 favorite. Euroears and Big Drama are both 9-2.
2:53 - Amazombie and Force Freeze put on a terrific show in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, battling eachother down the homestretch with Amazombie coming out on top by a head. Euroears never really had a chance, breaking poorly before being rushed up to help set a blazing pace of :21.12. This was an extremely difficult trip, and so thus he can be forgiven for fading so poorly.
For jockey Mike Smith, it was his fourteenth win in a Breeders' Cup race.
3:55 - The Turf Sprint looked like a very difficult race to handicap on paper, but it really wasn't as 2-1 favorite Regally Ready kicked clear in the stretch to win the race by two lengths. Country Day, Perfect Officer, and Great Attack all ran admirably to fill out the superfecta, but were no match for the winner. I was a bit surprised to see Caracortado and Chamberlain Bridge so close to the early pace, but I guess their outside post positions (14 and 13, respectively) forced them to commit to staying close -- and wide, as it turned out.
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) is currently five minutes away, and the three-year-old Wilburn is currently the 5-2 favorite. Trappe Shot, the morning line favorite, is 3-1.
5:10 - Two more races in the history books. Two favorites lost, but the winners were very logical. Caleb's Posse demonstrated just how much better he is going one turn rather than two in the Dirt Mile when he simply blew past Shackleford in the stretch to win going away.
The turf went to a European shipper as expected, but not one of the favored shippers. St Nicholas Abbey blew past them all in the homestretch to win the race in powerful fashion. Sea Moon ran strongly to be second, but could the missed workout on Thursday have been the difference between winning and losing? Brilliant Speed was a bit of a surprise, for the American colt was not expected to be capable of contending against the five top-class Euros in the race, yet beat Sarafina, Midday, and Await the Dawn to the wire to finish third. As for Sarafina, she just couldn't quicken with the leaders when asked for run at the top of the stretch.
Back to the Dirt Mile. Perhaps this is crazy, but could Caleb's Posse be the Champion three-year-old male of 2011? He now has victories in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I), King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II), Ohio Derby (gr. III), and Smarty Jones Stakes, in addition to a second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Indiana Derby (gr. II).
Let us compare the number of grade I victories earned this year by the top three-year-old colts:
Caleb's Posse - 2
Stay Thirsty - 1
Shackleford - 1
Ruler On Ice - 1
Coil - 1 (Not competing in the Breeders' Cup)
Animal Kingdom - 1 (Out with an injury)
Uncle Mo - 0
To Honor and Serve - 0
I think this leaves Caleb's Posse with very good credentials. If the other three-year-olds all disappoint in the Breeders' Cup Classic, then I believe Caleb's Posse deserves the honor.
5:45 - Hansen probably sewed up the division honors with a narrow victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), holding off a late charge from favored Union Rags to win by a head. I feel that Union Rags was probably the best horse in the race, for he was four wide every step of the way and just -- just! -- missed. Give credit to Hansen for setting a quick pace and holding him off, but Union Rags looks like a legitimate favorite for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Creative Cause and Dullahan also ran huge to be third and fourth, respectively, but Creative Cause did get a dream trip. Dullahan, however, charged from last and fifteen lengths off the pace to miss by about a length. Those four colts look like the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
In just eighteen minutes now, Goldikova shall go for her historic and unimaginable fourth straight victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I). She is currently the 6-5 favorite to complete the sweep, although she will have to break from gate one in order to do it. Gio Ponti is the 6-1 second choice, with Courageous Cat and Strong Suit both 8-1.
6:30 - Wow. . . what can you say? Goldikova is a great horse, and gave it her best shot, but today she just wasn't good enough to hang while trying to win her fourth Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I), an amazing feat that might have never been equaled. But while the same brilliant acceleration that earned her her three victories carried her to the lead in the stretch of today's race, it wasn't enough to hold off the late runs turned in by Court Vision and Turallure, the former of whom got his nose down in front at 64-1 to win the race.
At least Goldikova found herself a worthy successor. Court Vision has previously finished behind Goldikova in this race twice, running fourth in 2009 and fifth in 2010. An unlucky horse who hasn't finished better than fourth in over a year, Court Vision had to circle the field on the far outside, but still found enough run to get the job done. Goldikova tried gallantly to stem off his furious run in deep stretch, and briefly appeared capable of turning him back, but she has never cared for a wet track and perhaps the "good" turf course was one of the reasons why she couldn't get the job done. But nevertheless, no one can take away the fact that she won three straight BC Miles, whereas no horse had ever won any Breeders' Cup event more than twice prior to her. She has earned herself a place in racing history, and most likely the Hall of Fame. What a mare.
6:41 - Okay -- I just saw the will pays for the pick 6. Apparently, someone has managed to come up with Court Vision, Hansen, St Nicholas Abbey, Caleb's Posse, and Regally Ready to be live in the pick 6. But this bettor is not live to any of the favorites. Not Flat Out. Not Havre de Grace. Not Uncle Mo. Not So You Think. This bettor is live to Ruler On Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge.
7:35 - During the final two weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup, all of the reports from those watching the workouts of the Classic horses stated that Drosselmeyer was training beautifully for Bill Mott and was sitting on a huge race. But I doubt that anyone knew just how big a race Drosselmeyer was capable of running until he simply blew past Game On Dude in deep stretch to win the race in completely decisive fashion. For jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bill Mott, Drosselmeyer gave them each their second wins of this year's Breeders' Cup, followed Smith's win in the Sprint and Mott's victory in the Ladies' Classic last night. Give a lot of credit to Game On Dude, who set the pace, turned back Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve, and still had enough left in the tank to hold second. Ruler On Ice came on to be third, while Havre de Grace and Flat out never seriously threatened while finishing fourth and fifth.
It's been an exciting Breeders' Cup, with upsets occuring in eleven of the fifteen races. The winning favorites were Secret Circle (Juvenile Sprint), My Miss Aurelia (Juvenile Fillies), Royal Delta (Ladies' Classic), and Regally Ready (Turf Sprint).
Well, there will be plenty of Eclipse awards to debate during the coming months, including Horse of the Year, Champion Older Male, Champion Three-Year-Old Male, Female Sprinter, and Female Turf Horse. I guess we should get ready to debate. I hope you enjoyed the Breeders' Cup!
-Keelerman
Friday, June 10, 2011
BIRDRUN WINS THE BROOKLYN HANDICAP!
Birdrun took the lead early and never looked back in the Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II) this afternoon at Belmont Park, drawing away from favored Drosselmeyer in the stretch to win the race by three lengths.
Under Rajiv Maragh, the colt broke well from gate four but was bumped by Afleet Again shortly after the start when that one broke outward. But he was eager to go and Maragh allowed him to race away to take the lead. He set a fairly slow pace while being tracked by Drosselmeyer, winner of the 2010 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) just over one year ago. Alma d'Oro was poised three wide in third, followed by Eldaafer along the rail and Afleet Again, who was far, far behind early on.
Turning for home, Birdrun was confronted by Drosselmeyer but turned back the 6-5 favorite's bid, gradually pulling away for a decisive victory. He stopped the clock in 2:28.24 for the mile and a half.
Drosselmeyer finished two lengths clear of Alma d'Oro, who just held third by a half-length over Eldaafer. Afleet Again trailed the field, but made up a lot of ground in the stretch to be not badly beaten at all.
-Keelerman
Under Rajiv Maragh, the colt broke well from gate four but was bumped by Afleet Again shortly after the start when that one broke outward. But he was eager to go and Maragh allowed him to race away to take the lead. He set a fairly slow pace while being tracked by Drosselmeyer, winner of the 2010 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) just over one year ago. Alma d'Oro was poised three wide in third, followed by Eldaafer along the rail and Afleet Again, who was far, far behind early on.
Turning for home, Birdrun was confronted by Drosselmeyer but turned back the 6-5 favorite's bid, gradually pulling away for a decisive victory. He stopped the clock in 2:28.24 for the mile and a half.
Drosselmeyer finished two lengths clear of Alma d'Oro, who just held third by a half-length over Eldaafer. Afleet Again trailed the field, but made up a lot of ground in the stretch to be not badly beaten at all.
-Keelerman
Brooklyn Handicap Selections
The 2011 running of the historic Brooklyn Handicap, won by such magnificent horses such as Kelso and Forego, is scheduled to be run in a just a few minutes. A field of five has been entered, let by 2010 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) winner Drosselmeyer. He is currently the 6-5 favorite in what will be his first start at a mile and a half since the Belmont Stakes.
Eldaafer is another logical contender. Winner of the 2009 Brooklyn Handicap and the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon, he is a true marathon horse and should relish the distance of today's race.
Birdrun finished second to Drosselmeyer in the One Count stakes last month, is the third choice currently. He has never attempted to run this far before, but if he can negotiate the distance he could be a serious threat for the win.
Alma d'Oro and Afleet Again are the two longshots at 6-1 and 9-1, respectively.
My selections are:
1 Birdrun
2 Drosselmeyer
3 Eldaafer
4 Alma d'Oro
5 Afleet Again
-Keelerman
Eldaafer is another logical contender. Winner of the 2009 Brooklyn Handicap and the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon, he is a true marathon horse and should relish the distance of today's race.
Birdrun finished second to Drosselmeyer in the One Count stakes last month, is the third choice currently. He has never attempted to run this far before, but if he can negotiate the distance he could be a serious threat for the win.
Alma d'Oro and Afleet Again are the two longshots at 6-1 and 9-1, respectively.
My selections are:
1 Birdrun
2 Drosselmeyer
3 Eldaafer
4 Alma d'Oro
5 Afleet Again
-Keelerman
Saturday, August 28, 2010
AFLEET EXPRESS WON THE TRAVERS!!!
I wasn't going to live update today, but I can't wait top post the results! Afleet Express won the Travers Stakes by a nose!
I can't believe it! I have followed Afleet Express since December, hoping that he would someday win a grade I race, and at long last he pulled it off!
Here are the top four finishers. . .
1 Afleet Express
2 Fly Down
3 First Dude
4 Afleet Again
What a race!
-Keelerman
I can't believe it! I have followed Afleet Express since December, hoping that he would someday win a grade I race, and at long last he pulled it off!
Here are the top four finishers. . .
1 Afleet Express
2 Fly Down
3 First Dude
4 Afleet Again
What a race!
-Keelerman
Sunday, August 01, 2010
LOOKIN AT LUCKY WINS THE HASKELL!!
Under a perfect trip by Martin Garcia, Lookin at Lucky launched a three wide bid to win the $1,000,000 Izod Haskell Invitational by five lengths.
Tracking the pace set by First Dude, Our Dark Knight, and Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky looked good all the way around the track and drew off easily to win over 3-1 second choice Trappe Shot.
First Dude, the pace setter, finished third in a photo finish with Super Saver. Afleet Again finished fifth, followed by. . . Ice Box and Our Dark Knight, I believe.
What a race! Lookin at Lucky is now the clear leader of the three year old division, with wins in the Rebel, Preakness, and Haskell.
Tracking the pace set by First Dude, Our Dark Knight, and Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky looked good all the way around the track and drew off easily to win over 3-1 second choice Trappe Shot.
First Dude, the pace setter, finished third in a photo finish with Super Saver. Afleet Again finished fifth, followed by. . . Ice Box and Our Dark Knight, I believe.
What a race! Lookin at Lucky is now the clear leader of the three year old division, with wins in the Rebel, Preakness, and Haskell.
HASKELL UPDATE #3
It's just five minutes to post now for the $1,000,000 Izod Haskell Invitational. The tension is building, and there's a lot more than just $600,000 and a grade I win on the line today. The winner of this race will be a serious contender for Champion three year old at the end of the year.
I really like Afleet Again's chances. With a hot pace a possibility, he should be flying late.
It's now just two minutes to post. Lookin at Lucky is right there behind the gate, getting ready. Afleet Again is a very pretty horse.
Trappe Shot is still at 3-1.
It is now post time! I'll be back with the results in a moment. . .
-Keelerman
I really like Afleet Again's chances. With a hot pace a possibility, he should be flying late.
It's now just two minutes to post. Lookin at Lucky is right there behind the gate, getting ready. Afleet Again is a very pretty horse.
Trappe Shot is still at 3-1.
It is now post time! I'll be back with the results in a moment. . .
-Keelerman
HASKELL ANALYSIS
Incredible. That's the word I'm using to describe this year's edition of the grade I, $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational. It is without a doubt the best field of three year olds assembled this year, as all of the division leaders, minus Drosselmeyer, will be running.
You've got the Kentucky Derby winner. The Preakness winner. The Derby runner-up. The Preakness runner-up. Two promising horses who skipped the Triple Crown. Throw in two solid stakes contenders and it's tough to beat the quality of this race.
The morning line favorite is Lookin at Lucky, and deservedly so. The son of Smart Strike comes off of a win in the Preakness Stakes over First Dude and Jackson Bend, but had a slight fever towards the end of June that threw off his training. Add the fact that he drew the rail and that he went out slightly too fast in his final workout for this race and you have yourself a vulnerable favorite. Still, he has shown the ability to overcome adversity and should be right there in the stretch.
Then there is Afleet Again. The son of Afleet Alex won the one mile Withers Stakes earlier this year from a quartet of fine stakes runners, but has lost two since then. He has a bad habit of drifting in the stretch, a habit that likely cost him the win in the Spend a Buck Stakes. He seemed to be running straighter in his last race, the Pegasus Stakes, where he ran second to the promising Afleet Express. His jockey knows the track extremely well and if the pace is strong, Afleet Again will be flying late.
This brings us to Ice Box. The son of Pulpit was very impressive in the Florida Derby, which he won by a nose, and was even more impressive in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished second after considerable traffic issues. He failed to put in his late run while finishing ninth as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, but had an excuse and has been training well for his return. If the track turns up wet, which is possible, it should only help him.
First Dude, the fifth choice on the morning line, will be right there as well. The son of Steven Got Even has only a maiden win to his credit, but finished second to Lookin at Lucky in the Preakness after setting a hot pace and was then third, beaten about a length, in the Belmont Stakes. He has shown the ability to take the lead or lie just off of it, and will be tough to catch in the stretch. Will he get his first stakes victory? We'll find out this afternoon.
Our Dark Knight, the morning line longshot, certainly has the upside to run a huge race. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has only competed in one stakes race, running second to Ibeboyee in the Spend a Buck Stakes, but won an allowance race impressively in his last start. He will likely be on or near the lead, although not necessarily setting a fast pace. If he and First Dude are able to slow the pace down to a crawl, they could certainly go one-two.
This brings us to the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon won the biggest race for three year olds over a very sloppy track, defeating Ice Box by two and a half lengths, but did receive a picture-perfect ride under Calvin Borel. He then turned in a very disappointing effort in the Preakness Stakes, fading after six furlongs and finishing well behind Lookin at Lucky. Can he rebound to his Derby-winning form? We'll see.
Then there is, or I should say was, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was scratched this morning with a fever. I was actually going to pick him to win, but since he's not running, I'll have to pick someone else. Hopefully he'll return to the races soon.
Finally, we come to Trappe Shot. The promising colt is undefeated in four starts and comes into the Haskell off of a solid win in the Long Branch Stakes as the heavy favorite. He has answered every question except one: Is he good enough? He will be receiving four pounds from Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver, and two pounds from Ice Box, but until he beats them, it's hard to say how good he is.
Now that I have discussed all of the runners, it's time to take a look at how the race might unfold.
ON LEAD OR JUST OFF LEAD
First Dude
Our Dark Knight
Super Saver
MID PACK
Lookin at Lucky
Trappe Shot
CLOSERS
Afleet Again
Ice Box
There does seem to be a fair amount of speed in this race, but the question is: will it be used? It's possible that both First Dude and Our Dark Knight could choose to set a slow pace, and Super Saver has already shown the ability to win from as many as eight lengths off the lead. If this turns out to be the case, then the race will likely be won by the front runners. However, should those three choose to go at it together early, it could set the race up for a deep closer like Ice Box or Afleet Again. If the pace is moderate, then the versatile Lookin at Lucky should come flying late, with Trappe Shot right on his heels.
So here are my selections. . .
1 First Dude
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Afleet Again
4 Super Saver
5 Ice Box
6 Trappe Shot
7 Our Dark Knight
I'm afraid that Trappe Shot just hasn't impressed me yet. That's not to say that he doesn't have talent, he just doesn't look ready for this level of competition. I believe that First Dude is ready for a breakthrough win and will hold off the unlucky Lookin at Lucky by a small margin. As for Afleet Again, I have always been fond of him and if he can keep his run straight he should come with his late rally for a piece of the money.
What a race it's going to be! I can't wait! I will be updating live as post time draws nearer, commenting on the odds and how the horses look. I will post the results as soon as the race is over.
-Keelerman
You've got the Kentucky Derby winner. The Preakness winner. The Derby runner-up. The Preakness runner-up. Two promising horses who skipped the Triple Crown. Throw in two solid stakes contenders and it's tough to beat the quality of this race.
The morning line favorite is Lookin at Lucky, and deservedly so. The son of Smart Strike comes off of a win in the Preakness Stakes over First Dude and Jackson Bend, but had a slight fever towards the end of June that threw off his training. Add the fact that he drew the rail and that he went out slightly too fast in his final workout for this race and you have yourself a vulnerable favorite. Still, he has shown the ability to overcome adversity and should be right there in the stretch.
Then there is Afleet Again. The son of Afleet Alex won the one mile Withers Stakes earlier this year from a quartet of fine stakes runners, but has lost two since then. He has a bad habit of drifting in the stretch, a habit that likely cost him the win in the Spend a Buck Stakes. He seemed to be running straighter in his last race, the Pegasus Stakes, where he ran second to the promising Afleet Express. His jockey knows the track extremely well and if the pace is strong, Afleet Again will be flying late.
This brings us to Ice Box. The son of Pulpit was very impressive in the Florida Derby, which he won by a nose, and was even more impressive in the Kentucky Derby, where he finished second after considerable traffic issues. He failed to put in his late run while finishing ninth as the favorite in the Belmont Stakes, but had an excuse and has been training well for his return. If the track turns up wet, which is possible, it should only help him.
First Dude, the fifth choice on the morning line, will be right there as well. The son of Steven Got Even has only a maiden win to his credit, but finished second to Lookin at Lucky in the Preakness after setting a hot pace and was then third, beaten about a length, in the Belmont Stakes. He has shown the ability to take the lead or lie just off of it, and will be tough to catch in the stretch. Will he get his first stakes victory? We'll find out this afternoon.
Our Dark Knight, the morning line longshot, certainly has the upside to run a huge race. The son of Medaglia d’Oro has only competed in one stakes race, running second to Ibeboyee in the Spend a Buck Stakes, but won an allowance race impressively in his last start. He will likely be on or near the lead, although not necessarily setting a fast pace. If he and First Dude are able to slow the pace down to a crawl, they could certainly go one-two.
This brings us to the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon won the biggest race for three year olds over a very sloppy track, defeating Ice Box by two and a half lengths, but did receive a picture-perfect ride under Calvin Borel. He then turned in a very disappointing effort in the Preakness Stakes, fading after six furlongs and finishing well behind Lookin at Lucky. Can he rebound to his Derby-winning form? We'll see.
Then there is, or I should say was, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was scratched this morning with a fever. I was actually going to pick him to win, but since he's not running, I'll have to pick someone else. Hopefully he'll return to the races soon.
Finally, we come to Trappe Shot. The promising colt is undefeated in four starts and comes into the Haskell off of a solid win in the Long Branch Stakes as the heavy favorite. He has answered every question except one: Is he good enough? He will be receiving four pounds from Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver, and two pounds from Ice Box, but until he beats them, it's hard to say how good he is.
Now that I have discussed all of the runners, it's time to take a look at how the race might unfold.
ON LEAD OR JUST OFF LEAD
First Dude
Our Dark Knight
Super Saver
MID PACK
Lookin at Lucky
Trappe Shot
CLOSERS
Afleet Again
Ice Box
There does seem to be a fair amount of speed in this race, but the question is: will it be used? It's possible that both First Dude and Our Dark Knight could choose to set a slow pace, and Super Saver has already shown the ability to win from as many as eight lengths off the lead. If this turns out to be the case, then the race will likely be won by the front runners. However, should those three choose to go at it together early, it could set the race up for a deep closer like Ice Box or Afleet Again. If the pace is moderate, then the versatile Lookin at Lucky should come flying late, with Trappe Shot right on his heels.
So here are my selections. . .
1 First Dude
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Afleet Again
4 Super Saver
5 Ice Box
6 Trappe Shot
7 Our Dark Knight
I'm afraid that Trappe Shot just hasn't impressed me yet. That's not to say that he doesn't have talent, he just doesn't look ready for this level of competition. I believe that First Dude is ready for a breakthrough win and will hold off the unlucky Lookin at Lucky by a small margin. As for Afleet Again, I have always been fond of him and if he can keep his run straight he should come with his late rally for a piece of the money.
What a race it's going to be! I can't wait! I will be updating live as post time draws nearer, commenting on the odds and how the horses look. I will post the results as soon as the race is over.
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 19, 2010
OTHER STAKES RESULTS
Here are a few other results from the days races. . .
ALL ALONG STAKES (gr. III)
1 Shared Account
2 Dynaslew
3 Tizaqueena (DH)
3 Casablanca Smile (DH)
5 Omega Cat
6 Blind Date
7 Kitty Cat Express
NEW YORK STAKES (gr. II)
1 Lady Shakespeare
2 Changing Skies
3 Ave
4 Daveron
5 Gozzip Girl (Stumbled and lost rider)
VICTORIA STAKES
1 Madman Diaries
2 Brock N Rock
3 Affluence
4 Firepole
5 Hank's Kill
6 Code Dancer
COLONIAL TURF CUP STAKES (gr. II)
1 Paddy O'Prado
2 Workin for Hops
3 Two Notch Road
4 Doubles Partner
5 Dean's Kitten
6 Vamos a Ver
7 Kindergarden Kid
PEGASUS STAKES (gr. III)
1 Afleet Express
2 Afleet Again
3 Soaring Empire
4 Nacho Friend
5 Jackson Bend
6 Schoolyard Dreams
What a great day of racing!
-Keelerman
ALL ALONG STAKES (gr. III)
1 Shared Account
2 Dynaslew
3 Tizaqueena (DH)
3 Casablanca Smile (DH)
5 Omega Cat
6 Blind Date
7 Kitty Cat Express
NEW YORK STAKES (gr. II)
1 Lady Shakespeare
2 Changing Skies
3 Ave
4 Daveron
5 Gozzip Girl (Stumbled and lost rider)
VICTORIA STAKES
1 Madman Diaries
2 Brock N Rock
3 Affluence
4 Firepole
5 Hank's Kill
6 Code Dancer
COLONIAL TURF CUP STAKES (gr. II)
1 Paddy O'Prado
2 Workin for Hops
3 Two Notch Road
4 Doubles Partner
5 Dean's Kitten
6 Vamos a Ver
7 Kindergarden Kid
PEGASUS STAKES (gr. III)
1 Afleet Express
2 Afleet Again
3 Soaring Empire
4 Nacho Friend
5 Jackson Bend
6 Schoolyard Dreams
What a great day of racing!
-Keelerman
AFLEET EXPRESS WON!!!
Sitting just off the lead for much of the race, Afleet Express made a bold move around the turn to win the grade III $200,000 Pegasus Stakes by two lengths.
Afleet Again rallied late to grab second, completing an Afleet Alex exact.
Soaring Empire finished third, with Nacho Friend fourth.
Amazingly, Jackson Bend, the favorite, faded in the homestretch to finish either fifth or sixth. I'm not sure. Schoolyard Dreams was back there with him.
I'm so excited! Afleet Express is now a stakes winner!
-Keelerman
Afleet Again rallied late to grab second, completing an Afleet Alex exact.
Soaring Empire finished third, with Nacho Friend fourth.
Amazingly, Jackson Bend, the favorite, faded in the homestretch to finish either fifth or sixth. I'm not sure. Schoolyard Dreams was back there with him.
I'm so excited! Afleet Express is now a stakes winner!
-Keelerman
Sunday, May 23, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN UPDATE --- MAY 23rd
Yes, I know that I just posted here yesterday, but several things have happened since then, and I need to mention a couple of other races that I forgot to discuss yesterday.
I'll begin with my first "Breeders' Cup Update". Although my blog is entitled "Keelerman's Triple Crown Countdown", I'm going to have to switch over to discussing the Breeders' Cup in a few weeks, since the Triple Crown will soon be over. So anyway. . .
Goldikova, winner of the last two runnings of the Breeders' Cup Mile, made a successful return to the races in the nine furlong fifty-five yard group I Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp in France.
Although the distance was a bit long for her, the five year old mare came through with a half length victory in stakes record time. According to her trainer, she will run in the Queen Anne Stakes in June next.
Secondly, Tapitsfly, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf last year, recorded her first workout since then, breezing three furlongs in :38 4/5 at Churchill Downs.
And finally, here are my picks for the Spend a Buck Stakes at Monmouth Park. . .
1 Our Dark Knight
2 Ibboyee
3 Afleet Again
4 Nacho Friend
5 Allez Reef
6 Rule by Night
7 My Elusive Star
8 Medaglia's Express
. . . and the La Lorgnette Stakes at Woodbine. . .
1 Biofuel
2 Empire Song
3 Ernfold
4 Redverse
5 Moment of Majesty
6 Tee Game
7 Witch's Cove
And that is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
I'll begin with my first "Breeders' Cup Update". Although my blog is entitled "Keelerman's Triple Crown Countdown", I'm going to have to switch over to discussing the Breeders' Cup in a few weeks, since the Triple Crown will soon be over. So anyway. . .
Goldikova, winner of the last two runnings of the Breeders' Cup Mile, made a successful return to the races in the nine furlong fifty-five yard group I Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp in France.
Although the distance was a bit long for her, the five year old mare came through with a half length victory in stakes record time. According to her trainer, she will run in the Queen Anne Stakes in June next.
Secondly, Tapitsfly, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf last year, recorded her first workout since then, breezing three furlongs in :38 4/5 at Churchill Downs.
And finally, here are my picks for the Spend a Buck Stakes at Monmouth Park. . .
1 Our Dark Knight
2 Ibboyee
3 Afleet Again
4 Nacho Friend
5 Allez Reef
6 Rule by Night
7 My Elusive Star
8 Medaglia's Express
. . . and the La Lorgnette Stakes at Woodbine. . .
1 Biofuel
2 Empire Song
3 Ernfold
4 Redverse
5 Moment of Majesty
6 Tee Game
7 Witch's Cove
And that is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 28th, 2010
Only a couple of days left before the Kentucky Derby and the Oaks. A lot of stuff is going to be happening between now and then. And unfortunately, a lot of bad things happened during the last couple of days.
To begin, I will mention that Eskendereya and Rule are out of the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya, the Derby favorite, came down with a filling in his left front leg and had to scratch. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is very disappointed.
And just when Todd Pletcher needed some good news, he got the opposite. Rule was having training difficulties at Churchill Downs, and Todd and the owners of Rule decided not to run him.
But on the other hand, Todd Pletcher and the owners of top class filly Devil May Care have announced that they intend to run her in the Kentucky Derby. She'll do her best to fill the hole left by Eskendereya and Rule, but that is a pretty big hole to fill. Fortunately, she seems to have great talent and should be able to run a great race on Saturday.
Of course, no matter how terrible things seem, something good always comes from them. Even though scratching Eskendereya and Rule doesn't help Pletcher, it does help Nick Zito, who will now be able to run the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial runner up Jackson Bend in the Derby. Jackson Bend was sitting 21st on the graded earnings list before it was announced that Devil May Care might run, dropping him down to the 22nd spot. But the defections of Eskendereya and Rule moved him into the 20th spot, getting him into the Derby. This is good news in many ways, for he fully deserves to run in the Derby and has a good shot at hitting the board.
But now let's move on to some slightly more pleasant subjects, such as the results from last Saturday. We'll begin with the grade III The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes, of which there were two scratches, Privilaged and Soaring Empire.
The one mile race at Churchill Downs looked as though it might turn out a Derby contender for once. The connections of two of the runners, Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince, had announced that should their colt win the Derby Trial, they would send him on to the Kentucky Derby.
But as it turned out, it didn't matter. Neither of the colts won the Derby Trial, as it was Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel who came up the rail to win the Derby Trial by an easy two and three quarter lengths. Aikenite, who is actually rich enough to run in the Derby if his connections felt he should, rallied for second but could not challenge the winner. Pleasant Prince came late for third. Eightfiveinafifty, the heavy favorite, set the pace but had nothing left when challenged by Hurricane Ike after three quarters of a mile. The final time was 1:36 1/5. It was Calvin Borel's fifth win of the day from eight mounts. Not bad.
So here are the results. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
4 Eightyfiveinafifty
5 Game On Dude
6 Wow Wow Wow
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
. . . versus my selections.
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
5 Miner's Reserve
6 Game On Dude
7 Wow Wow Wow
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
Except for Eightfiveinafifty, I was pretty close. I can't begin to describe how excited I was when Hurricane Ike won, because I had so nearly gone with Eightyfiveinafifty but decided that Hurricane Ike was the best horse under those conditions. But I was even more excited when the results of the Withers Stakes were in.
I gave the Withers a lot of thought. I knew that D' Funnybone was the heavy and deserving favorite, but I felt that at this distance he was vulnerable. So I started looking for a longshot to be my pick. I thought a long time about using Ibboyee, but I knew that he might have a few distance issues as well. And he was going to be well bet. I felt pretty sure that a longshot was going to win.
I thought about picking Castaneda. He seemed to have some decent speed, and maybe he could shake of D' Funnybone and win the race easily. I doubted it.
I thought about picking Most Happy Fella. The colt had set the pace in the Wood Memorial before fading to finish last. Fortunately, I didn't pick him. He ended up scratching.
I thought about picking Spangled Star. He would be the longshot, but he would be carrying six pounds less than D' Funnybone. But I decided not to pick him for various reasons.
So that left me with Afleet Again. I have followed the colt since before the Whirlaway Stakes and he was actually my pick for the Gotham, where he finished last of ten. But I felt with only 116 pounds on his back in the Withers, he would have a shot, even with his 20-1 morning line odds.
Afleet Again won the Withers at 25-1 going away.
I was so pleased that he had won that I couldn't calm down for the rest of the evening. All I could think was, "I picked the winners of the Derby Trial AND the Withers!"
Of course, Afleet Again had a perfect pace scenario. Breaking alertly, he raced up to sit just off the leader Castaneda through an opening quarter mile fraction of :21 3/5. D' Funnybone, meanwhile, was in trouble. He had broken a bit slowly and got into trouble within the first quarter of a mile. He had to steady sharply and drop back a bit. Then he made his run on the outside to join Castaneda through fractions of :43 4/5 and 1:07 2/5. Afleet Again, meanwhile, had dropped back a bit and was four lengths behind with only a quarter of a mile to go. That was when he made his move.
Swinging five wide, he made a bold move after the leaders. D' Funnybone and Castaneda, after setting the blazing fractions, could find no more. In the mean time, Ibboyee had opened up a clear lead as they came down to the final eighth. But Afleet Again proved to much for him, and drew off to a length and a half victory, getting the mile in 1:34 flat. Ibboyee held second, four and a quarter lengths in front of Spangled Star, who made a late run to pass the tiring pace setters. D' Funnybone ended up fourth, ten and three quarter lengths in front of Castaneda.
So anyway, congratulations to Afleet Again and his connections! I will remember this race fondly for many years.
Then there was an allowance race at Lone Star Park. I don't think that it is going to turn out a Triple Crown race winner, but it's still worth noting.
The favorite was Random Move, at odds of 1.90-1. Guilty Plea was also well bet at 3-1, and Productive Envoy was 5-1. My pick was Productive Envoy.
The race was fairly uneventful, although there was a little bit of bumping in the early going. Two Ex, an 8-1 shot, set the pace, followed closely by Guilty Plea. Productive Envoy sat right behind them while Random Move was far back.
On the far turn, Two Ex gave way, leaving Guilty Plea the leader. But Productive Envoy was moving and took the lead in the stretch. He managed to hold off 15-1 Shoot it's War for the win, with Guilty Plea back in third, beaten less than two lengths. Random Move rallied for fourth.
Then there was the six furlong Land of Lincoln Stakes at Hawthorne. For three year old Texas breds, it drew a field of nine highlighted by Royal Express. The second choice was Cap'n Nick, followed by Big Looie and Devient Behavior. I liked Windy City Cat.
Except for some bumping at the start, the race was pretty controlled. Royal Express broke fastest and set the pace for about half the race before being overtaken by Big Looie. Big Looie then pulled away to lead by a length and a half at the eighth pole, but had to dig in to hold off a fast closing 16-1 Seguro. 20-1 A J's Mountain finished third, with Star of Paradise fourth. Then came Royal Express and Windy City Cat, the latter whom completely failed to menace.
Another race of note was the mile and a sixteenth Melair Stakes at Hollywood Park. For three year old fillies, the heavy favorite was La Nez. She was also my pick. Camille C was sent off as the 3-1 second choice.
As it turned out, La Nez never really threatened. She raced fifth for much of the race before making an outside bid to draw within a half length of Camille C, who had led from the start. But she was unable to sustain her rally, and ended up third, beaten nine and three quarter lengths by the winner. Salty Fries at 5-1 rallied for second, with Costanta fourth.
Finally, there was the mile and a sixteenth Island Whirl Florida Thoroughbred Charities Stakes for three year olds and upward. The favorite was Bim Bam, a three year old colt who had defeated Triple Crown prospect Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes when the latter was making his 2010 debut. In his next start, however, he finished fifth behind eventual Blue Grass Stakes runner up Paddy O'Prado in the grade III Palm Beach Stakes. The second choice at 3-1 was Roman Tiger, a five year old gelded son of Tiger Ridge. He was also my pick.
Although Bim Bam came very close to winning another race, he just couldn't quite get it done. Racing fourth for the first half mile. he began to inch up on the leaders and made a good bid for the lead, but Roman Tiger blew past him on his way to a two and three quarter length victory. Bim Bam held second by a neck over Sincero.
And now, I am almost done. But there is still one more thing left to do. I must reveal the mystery horse.
THE MYSTERY HORSE REVEALED
I know I said that I was going to announced this colts identity on Thursday, but now that the field has been drawn, I feel now is as good a time as any. So, with a drumroll, I shall announce the mystery colt. . .
Drumroll . . .
Anxiously awaiting . . .
Opening the envelope . . .
And the mystery colt is . . .
HOMEBOYKRIS!
I know that many of you will be shocked into silence by this news, but I truly think that Homeboykris has a fighting chance. Yes, he drew gate 19, and yes he has done absolutely nothing of note since winning the Champagne Stakes last October, but I feel that he is sitting on the race of his life and could spoil a lot of superfectas. Here are five reasons to like him:
1. He will be ridden by top jockey Ramon Dominguez.
2. He is trained by Rick Dutrow, who has won the Derby before with Big Brown.
3. He has not raced since February 27th. He is certainly going to be fresh.
4. He is training well at Churchill Downs
5. He probably won't run into any traffic, as he will be breaking from gate 19.
Now, are you convinced that Homeboykris is going to win the Kentucky Derby? Okay, I didn't give any great reasons to put lots of money on him, but the fact is I just have this feeling that he is not a throw out horse. I won't be throwing him out of the mix, and will be considering him a legitimate contender. Hey, I like him better than Discreetly Mine!
And that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks, and on Oaks Day I will post my selections for the Kentucky Derby. I will also briefly discuss Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne Stakes as well as the rest of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks undercards. And don't forget that on Derby Day I will be live on my blog updating as post time draws nearer. I'll be discussing how they look in the post parade, if anybody is acting up, and how I feel overall about everything.
Two days left until Derby Day. . . this is so much fun!
-Keelerman
To begin, I will mention that Eskendereya and Rule are out of the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya, the Derby favorite, came down with a filling in his left front leg and had to scratch. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is very disappointed.
And just when Todd Pletcher needed some good news, he got the opposite. Rule was having training difficulties at Churchill Downs, and Todd and the owners of Rule decided not to run him.
But on the other hand, Todd Pletcher and the owners of top class filly Devil May Care have announced that they intend to run her in the Kentucky Derby. She'll do her best to fill the hole left by Eskendereya and Rule, but that is a pretty big hole to fill. Fortunately, she seems to have great talent and should be able to run a great race on Saturday.
Of course, no matter how terrible things seem, something good always comes from them. Even though scratching Eskendereya and Rule doesn't help Pletcher, it does help Nick Zito, who will now be able to run the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial runner up Jackson Bend in the Derby. Jackson Bend was sitting 21st on the graded earnings list before it was announced that Devil May Care might run, dropping him down to the 22nd spot. But the defections of Eskendereya and Rule moved him into the 20th spot, getting him into the Derby. This is good news in many ways, for he fully deserves to run in the Derby and has a good shot at hitting the board.
But now let's move on to some slightly more pleasant subjects, such as the results from last Saturday. We'll begin with the grade III The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes, of which there were two scratches, Privilaged and Soaring Empire.
The one mile race at Churchill Downs looked as though it might turn out a Derby contender for once. The connections of two of the runners, Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince, had announced that should their colt win the Derby Trial, they would send him on to the Kentucky Derby.
But as it turned out, it didn't matter. Neither of the colts won the Derby Trial, as it was Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel who came up the rail to win the Derby Trial by an easy two and three quarter lengths. Aikenite, who is actually rich enough to run in the Derby if his connections felt he should, rallied for second but could not challenge the winner. Pleasant Prince came late for third. Eightfiveinafifty, the heavy favorite, set the pace but had nothing left when challenged by Hurricane Ike after three quarters of a mile. The final time was 1:36 1/5. It was Calvin Borel's fifth win of the day from eight mounts. Not bad.
So here are the results. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
4 Eightyfiveinafifty
5 Game On Dude
6 Wow Wow Wow
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
. . . versus my selections.
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
5 Miner's Reserve
6 Game On Dude
7 Wow Wow Wow
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
Except for Eightfiveinafifty, I was pretty close. I can't begin to describe how excited I was when Hurricane Ike won, because I had so nearly gone with Eightyfiveinafifty but decided that Hurricane Ike was the best horse under those conditions. But I was even more excited when the results of the Withers Stakes were in.
I gave the Withers a lot of thought. I knew that D' Funnybone was the heavy and deserving favorite, but I felt that at this distance he was vulnerable. So I started looking for a longshot to be my pick. I thought a long time about using Ibboyee, but I knew that he might have a few distance issues as well. And he was going to be well bet. I felt pretty sure that a longshot was going to win.
I thought about picking Castaneda. He seemed to have some decent speed, and maybe he could shake of D' Funnybone and win the race easily. I doubted it.
I thought about picking Most Happy Fella. The colt had set the pace in the Wood Memorial before fading to finish last. Fortunately, I didn't pick him. He ended up scratching.
I thought about picking Spangled Star. He would be the longshot, but he would be carrying six pounds less than D' Funnybone. But I decided not to pick him for various reasons.
So that left me with Afleet Again. I have followed the colt since before the Whirlaway Stakes and he was actually my pick for the Gotham, where he finished last of ten. But I felt with only 116 pounds on his back in the Withers, he would have a shot, even with his 20-1 morning line odds.
Afleet Again won the Withers at 25-1 going away.
I was so pleased that he had won that I couldn't calm down for the rest of the evening. All I could think was, "I picked the winners of the Derby Trial AND the Withers!"
Of course, Afleet Again had a perfect pace scenario. Breaking alertly, he raced up to sit just off the leader Castaneda through an opening quarter mile fraction of :21 3/5. D' Funnybone, meanwhile, was in trouble. He had broken a bit slowly and got into trouble within the first quarter of a mile. He had to steady sharply and drop back a bit. Then he made his run on the outside to join Castaneda through fractions of :43 4/5 and 1:07 2/5. Afleet Again, meanwhile, had dropped back a bit and was four lengths behind with only a quarter of a mile to go. That was when he made his move.
Swinging five wide, he made a bold move after the leaders. D' Funnybone and Castaneda, after setting the blazing fractions, could find no more. In the mean time, Ibboyee had opened up a clear lead as they came down to the final eighth. But Afleet Again proved to much for him, and drew off to a length and a half victory, getting the mile in 1:34 flat. Ibboyee held second, four and a quarter lengths in front of Spangled Star, who made a late run to pass the tiring pace setters. D' Funnybone ended up fourth, ten and three quarter lengths in front of Castaneda.
So anyway, congratulations to Afleet Again and his connections! I will remember this race fondly for many years.
Then there was an allowance race at Lone Star Park. I don't think that it is going to turn out a Triple Crown race winner, but it's still worth noting.
The favorite was Random Move, at odds of 1.90-1. Guilty Plea was also well bet at 3-1, and Productive Envoy was 5-1. My pick was Productive Envoy.
The race was fairly uneventful, although there was a little bit of bumping in the early going. Two Ex, an 8-1 shot, set the pace, followed closely by Guilty Plea. Productive Envoy sat right behind them while Random Move was far back.
On the far turn, Two Ex gave way, leaving Guilty Plea the leader. But Productive Envoy was moving and took the lead in the stretch. He managed to hold off 15-1 Shoot it's War for the win, with Guilty Plea back in third, beaten less than two lengths. Random Move rallied for fourth.
Then there was the six furlong Land of Lincoln Stakes at Hawthorne. For three year old Texas breds, it drew a field of nine highlighted by Royal Express. The second choice was Cap'n Nick, followed by Big Looie and Devient Behavior. I liked Windy City Cat.
Except for some bumping at the start, the race was pretty controlled. Royal Express broke fastest and set the pace for about half the race before being overtaken by Big Looie. Big Looie then pulled away to lead by a length and a half at the eighth pole, but had to dig in to hold off a fast closing 16-1 Seguro. 20-1 A J's Mountain finished third, with Star of Paradise fourth. Then came Royal Express and Windy City Cat, the latter whom completely failed to menace.
Another race of note was the mile and a sixteenth Melair Stakes at Hollywood Park. For three year old fillies, the heavy favorite was La Nez. She was also my pick. Camille C was sent off as the 3-1 second choice.
As it turned out, La Nez never really threatened. She raced fifth for much of the race before making an outside bid to draw within a half length of Camille C, who had led from the start. But she was unable to sustain her rally, and ended up third, beaten nine and three quarter lengths by the winner. Salty Fries at 5-1 rallied for second, with Costanta fourth.
Finally, there was the mile and a sixteenth Island Whirl Florida Thoroughbred Charities Stakes for three year olds and upward. The favorite was Bim Bam, a three year old colt who had defeated Triple Crown prospect Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes when the latter was making his 2010 debut. In his next start, however, he finished fifth behind eventual Blue Grass Stakes runner up Paddy O'Prado in the grade III Palm Beach Stakes. The second choice at 3-1 was Roman Tiger, a five year old gelded son of Tiger Ridge. He was also my pick.
Although Bim Bam came very close to winning another race, he just couldn't quite get it done. Racing fourth for the first half mile. he began to inch up on the leaders and made a good bid for the lead, but Roman Tiger blew past him on his way to a two and three quarter length victory. Bim Bam held second by a neck over Sincero.
And now, I am almost done. But there is still one more thing left to do. I must reveal the mystery horse.
THE MYSTERY HORSE REVEALED
I know I said that I was going to announced this colts identity on Thursday, but now that the field has been drawn, I feel now is as good a time as any. So, with a drumroll, I shall announce the mystery colt. . .
Drumroll . . .
Anxiously awaiting . . .
Opening the envelope . . .
And the mystery colt is . . .
HOMEBOYKRIS!
I know that many of you will be shocked into silence by this news, but I truly think that Homeboykris has a fighting chance. Yes, he drew gate 19, and yes he has done absolutely nothing of note since winning the Champagne Stakes last October, but I feel that he is sitting on the race of his life and could spoil a lot of superfectas. Here are five reasons to like him:
1. He will be ridden by top jockey Ramon Dominguez.
2. He is trained by Rick Dutrow, who has won the Derby before with Big Brown.
3. He has not raced since February 27th. He is certainly going to be fresh.
4. He is training well at Churchill Downs
5. He probably won't run into any traffic, as he will be breaking from gate 19.
Now, are you convinced that Homeboykris is going to win the Kentucky Derby? Okay, I didn't give any great reasons to put lots of money on him, but the fact is I just have this feeling that he is not a throw out horse. I won't be throwing him out of the mix, and will be considering him a legitimate contender. Hey, I like him better than Discreetly Mine!
And that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks, and on Oaks Day I will post my selections for the Kentucky Derby. I will also briefly discuss Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne Stakes as well as the rest of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks undercards. And don't forget that on Derby Day I will be live on my blog updating as post time draws nearer. I'll be discussing how they look in the post parade, if anybody is acting up, and how I feel overall about everything.
Two days left until Derby Day. . . this is so much fun!
-Keelerman
Friday, April 23, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 23rd, 2010
". . . they come down the homestretch and it's Lookin at Lucky with a narrow lead! Super Saver battles on his inside, and Dublin is launching a furious rally from the back of the pack! Dublin is grinding past horses! Lookin at Lucky leads at the eighth pole! Super Saver refuses to give way! Calvin Borel is imploring him to go on! But here comes Dublin! Down to the final sixteenth! Lookin at Lucky has unwavering courage! Super Saver is a stubborn foe! And Dublin is cutting them both down with every stride! Here's the wire! . . . Dublin gets up to win it by a neck! Welcome back Wayne Lukas!"
Oh wait a minute . . . that's next Saturday. Or at least I hope that's what happens next Saturday.
Getting serious, there is only one week left before the Kentucky Derby. And amazingly, there is still one final prep. And that is the Derby Trial, which has been reduced to nothing over the past several years, but with the severe earnings problem many top horses are facing, it is once again a prime trial for the Derby. If you can believe it, two of the colts running may end up in the Derby if they win. So let's take a look at the tough ten horse field and see what we can figure out.
DERBY TRIAL (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, April 24th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
To begin with, there is the number one horse Game On Dude. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since running seventh in the Florida Derby behind Ice Box five weeks ago. He has been fairly consistent, but proved that he was no match for the best horses in Florida. Still, he will be ridden by Robby Albarado and will have to carry only 117 pounds, which is four less than the high weight Eightyfiveinafifty. He might be in the mix, but may not be quite as good as some of the others that are running.
This brings us to the number two horse Soaring Empire. Another colt making his first start back since the Florida Derby, the son of Empire Maker did not get a great trip in that race, and may step up and run a big one tomorrow. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro and will carry 117 pounds.
Then there is the number three horse Privilaged. The son of Southern Image has only made one start this year, and that was in the grade II Swale Stakes on the undercard of the Florida Derby. He actually ran a very good race that day, racing three wide while chasing the pace. He ended up third, beaten three and a half lengths. I actually like him pretty well here, and I think that he has the ability to step up and run the race of his life. He will be ridden by R. Maragh and will carry 117 pounds.
Now we come to the four horse Pleasant Prince. The 4-1 morning line second choice has been racing rather frequently. Five weeks ago he ran second in the Florida Derby. Two weeks ago he ran seventh in the Blue Grass, but it was obvious that he hated Keeneland's Polytrack. Now he intends to run in the in the Derby Trial, and should he win, the Kentucky Derby. That would be four races in six weeks. And his seventh of the year. If he can handle it, he is a very rare horse. Anyway, the son of Indy King will be carrying 117 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by regular rider Julien Leparoux, who won the Eclipse award last year for outstanding jockey.
Next up is the number five horse Hurricane Ike. The son of Graeme Hall has ran an excellent race last time out in his first start on dirt, running second to Eightfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes while earning the highest Beyer speed figure of his life. He has yet to be proven beyond seven furlongs, as in his only start beyond that distance he ran eleventh in the Breeders' Futurity, but that was many months ago, and it was at Keeneland. Tomorrow, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel, which is always a good thing.
But we mustn’t ignore the six horse Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft broke his maiden impressively earlier this year, but ran a horrible race in the Florida Derby, being beaten nearly thirty-five lengths while having no obvious excuse. But I am willing to excuse his poor performance there and assume that he is going to bounce back. He will carry 117 pounds tomorrow, five pounds less than he has ever carried in his life, and will be ridden for the first time by Jose Lezcano.
This brings us to the number seven horse Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow will be making his tenth lifetime start at the sixth different track. He seems to be one of those colts who runs either really well or really poorly. Looking at his workouts, I would say that he has taken to Churchill Downs rather well, and might be ready to run his best race tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who rode the colt to his best victory, an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park.
Then there is the number eight horse Hear Ye Hear Ye. You certainly can't knock the son of Hear No Evil's soundness, as the Derby Trial will be his fourteenth start and his second of the month. If you can believe it, he has run in at least one race every month since last May, excluding the month of January. He has won twice, but is a state-restricted stakes winner. He has finished in the top three only three times, but has finished fourth five times. I don't think he will be a very big contender tomorrow, but with Corey Nakatani on his back, you never know. He will carry 117 pounds.
Coming down to the final two entries, we find Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True ran the worst race of his career in his last start, the Blue Grass Stakes. He has no obvious reason, as he had run well over Keeneland's Polytrack before, and we can only hope that he will return to his prior racing form. However, he has run his best races while coming from off the pace, and he might have been just a tad too close to the lead in the Blue Grass. Hopefully, his jockey Garrett Gomez will take him back tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds.
Finally, we come to the ten horse Eightyfiveinafifty. This colt is the solid morning line favorite at 8-5, and will probably be lower by post time, but he seems to be a bit wild. Two starts back he failed to turn going into the first turn at Aqueduct in the mile and a sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes. He ended up with a broken bit and a cut which required stitches. And in his last start, the Bay Shore Stakes, he won easily, but was not paying much attention to the race. For the first fifty yards or so, he ran with his head turned towards the infield and never seems completely comfortable. Another question that I ask is can he go a mile? The answer is perhaps. We'll find out tomorrow. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and will carry top weight of 121 pounds.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Pleasant Prince
3 Aikenite
5 Privilaged
6 Soaring Empire
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Game On Dude
9 Wow Wow Wow
10 Hear Ye Hear Ye
It was a tough decision, but I guess I'm not going to pick a colt who might not finish the race. I know that he is probably past not making turns, but he still seems to be a very erratic horse and somewhat unpredictable. Still, he appears to be a step or two above every other horse in this race. My pick is Hurricane Ike, who got within two and a half lengths of Eightyfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes. With an extra furlong, who knows what might happen? Wow Wow Wow is another horse I like, but I can't see him lasting the mile distance with the pace that is going to be run. There is a lot of speed in this race. As for third, I couldn't make up my mind. Pleasant Prince is probably better than Aikenite, but Aikenite hasn't raced so frequently this year and may have a bit more left in the end. Pleasant Prince will probably be coming late, but I can't see him getting up in time. If Aikenite sticks close to the pace, he will probably fade. If he comes from behind, me might just get there. As for Miner's Reserve and Soaring Empire, both of them have a shot at winning, but I just can't see them doing it. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, as there is only one week left before the Derby, there aren’t exactly a ton of races remaining. As I glance over my National Stakes Conditions booklet, I see only a few stakes races worth mentioning. I'll begin with the Withers Stakes and Aqueduct.
The grade III Withers Stakes used to be a very prestigious race. In recent years, however, it has been reduced to nothing more than a prep for the Preakness. Still, the one mile race has attracted a quality field of three year olds this year, although as far as I know none of them are aiming for the Triple Crown. But you never know what might happen . . .
I'm only going to briefly describe the race, but I'll try to be as thorough as possible. The heavy favorite will likely be D' Funnybone, who will be trying for his fifth graded stakes win. He is undefeated this year, with dual seven furlong grade II victories, but the question is can he go a mile? There is a fair amount of speed in this race, most of it coming from Most Happy Fella and Castaneda. Interestingly, Most Happy Fella is the number one horse, D' Funnybone the number two horse, Castaneda the number three. There could be an interesting speed dual early. If that was to be the case, than Afleet Again and Ibboyee might come running late. I would not be surprised at all if D' Funnybone is upset. Finally, there is the number five horse Spangled Star. Nobody seems to think that he has a chance, but you never know. He only has to carry 116 pounds, the same as Most Happy Fella, and he might just have a shot.
RACE RESULTS
First off, I shall recap the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The mile and a sixteenth event drew a tough field of twelve, and Connemara was made the slight favorite over Uptowncharlybrown. Bushwhacked and Krypton were also well liked.
The way I saw it, there was just enough speed that the winner would come from behind. I just couldn't see Krypton or Exhi wiring the race. I felt that Call Shot would sit just off the pace and win by a length or so, with Uptowncharlybrown rallying late for second and Connemara getting up for third.
Exhi went wire-to-wire. Connemara finished tenth and Call Shot eleventh.
It just goes to show that I should stay away from Keeneland. I do okay handicapping the little races there, but I always falter when it comes to the stakes races. Exhi, sent off at nearly 20-1, set pretty good fractions from the start and held off Bushwhacked and Uptowncharlybrown for the win. (But I did correctly predict Chief Counsel to come in fourth.)
So here are the final results. . .
1 Exhi
2 Bushwhacked
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Chief Counsel
5 Prince Will I Am
6 Kettle River
7 Distorted Dave
8 Heavenville
9 Krypton
10 Connemara
11 Call Shot
12 Lonesome Street
. . . versus my selections.
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
I didn't do very well, but I didn't do all that terrible. (Okay, I did rotten. I had the winner to finish sixth and the runner up to finish last. The only horses I was right about were Chief Counsel and Distorted Dave!)
But I'm satisfied with the results. Although none of the runners will be making it to the Derby, it was still a good prep, and one of the runners might end up in either the Preakness or the Belmont.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin with, there was the six furlong KHEY Y-96 Sprint Stakes at Sunland Park. A field of nine was drawn, the favorite being Malibu Mystic. My personal pick was Haitian Hero, and despite the fact that his morning line odds were something like 9-2, he was sent off at 22-1.
In the early going, Malibu Mystic led, with El Confidential, a 25-1 shot, and Haitian Hero pressing him on the outside. But as they started their drives, Malibu Mystic gave way, leaving Haitian Hero and El Confidential to battle it out. Under the wire it was Haitian Hero, El Confidential second. Timbavati made a lot of ground to finish third. Malibu Mystic finished eighth, beaten seventeen lengths.
Then there was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. For three year olds, my pick was Center Divider, and he was sent off as the 3-2 favorite. Also well liked was Mister Marti Gras.
In the early going, Justamatteroftime set the pace, followed closely by Patti's Kitten and Down With Dixie. Center Divider sat fourth for much of the race.
However, around the final turn, Center Divider began his run. Moving strongly while four wide, he took the lead at the eighth pole and drew off to win by four. Patti's Kitten, at 10-1, finished second, with Looks Purrrfect third. Mister Marti Gras was fourth.
And finally, there was a mile and a sixteenth allowance race on the turf at Keeneland. For three year old fillies, the race drew six runners. The narrowest of favorites was Lisa's Kitten, with Joharmony the second choice. Lucky Lass and Laura Babe were also well bet.
As it turned out, the order of finish was nearly identical to the odds they were sent off at. Joharmany, my pick, finished first by a neck, with Lisa's Kitten second, three quarters of a length in front of Lucky Lass. It was another six back to Laura Babe, with Full Storm and Wildcat Dreamer trailing. So the winner was 2-1, the runner up was 2-1, the third place finisher was 3-1, the fourth place finisher 4-1, the fifth place finisher 11-1, and the trailer 19-1. The bettors at Keeneland were almost completely right. If Lisa's Kitten had gotten up in time, they would have been completely right. Wow.
UNDERCOVER AT THE DOWNS
With the Kentucky Derby coming closer every minute, "Undercover at the Downs" is dedicated to helping sort out all the stuff that is going on at Churchill Downs, including workouts, possible equipment changes, and other news. To begin, here are some contenders who have worked out over the past week or so.
WORKOUTS
APRIL 15th
Hurricane Ike breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Jackson Bend breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Privilaged breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Wow Wow Wow breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5.
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5.
APRIL 16th --- Churchill Downs
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 flat.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :50 flat.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Seeking the Title breezed four furlongs in :50 1/5.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5.
Stay Put breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Training
Dean's Kitten breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the co-fastest of ten workouts at that distance.
Kera's Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Downs
Aspire breezed three furlongs in :36 flat, the co-fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Naiche breezed three furlongs in :37 3/5 on a good track.
Cool Bullet breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Miner's Reserve breezed four furlongs in :46 flat, the fastest of fifty-four workouts at that distance.
Fist of Rage breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5 on a good track.
Sheer Beauty breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a good track.
Sidney's Candy breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5.
Champagne d'Oro breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat.
Crisp breezed six furlongs in 1:15 1/5.
Elusive Jozi breezed six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 on a good track, the fastest of eight workouts at that distance.
APRIL 18th --- Churchill Downs
Bravo Whiskey breezed four furlongs in :50 3/5.
Don't Put It Back breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5.
Raging Wit breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:04 flat.
Raphael Alexandro breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat. (Not a contender, but a cute name.)
Safe Trip breezed five furlongs in :59 flat, the fastest of thirty-two workouts at that distance.
Thiskyhasnolimit breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Vow to Wager breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
APRIL 19th --- Churchill Downs
Decelerator breezed four furlongs in :47 flat.
Guru breezed four furlongs in :51 flat.
Necassary Evil breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5.
Bell's Shoes breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Dublin breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5, the fastest of forty-four workouts at that distance.
Game On Dude breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Northern Giant breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5.
Crider breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5.
Hot Dixie Chick breezed six furlongs in 1:13 3/5.
APRIL 20th --- Churchill Downs
Beautician breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5.
Diva Delite breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Hurrican Ike breezed five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
Line of David breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Noble's Promise breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the fastest of thirty workouts at that distance.
Privilaged breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Awesome Act breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
Tidal Pool breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
APRIL 21st --- Churchill Downs
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in :58 3/5.
Fuzzy Britches breezed five furlongs in 1:04 3/5.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:14 4/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:12 flat.
APRIL 22nd --- Churchill Downs
Our Dark Knight breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Jackson Bend breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat, the co-fastest of twenty workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Downs
Doubles Partner breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a sloppy track.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :46 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-seven workouts at that distance.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a sloppy track.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Stay Put breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a wet fast track.
Ailalea breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Colizeo breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Paddy O’Prado breezed five furlongs in :58 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 on a sloppy track.
Crisp breezed five furlongs in 1:14 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of two workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Training
Dean’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in :1:01 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Kera’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
Stately Victor breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
OTHER TRIPLE CROWN NEWS
It sounds as though Lookin at Lucky will not wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby.
She Be Wild is out of the Kentucky Oaks due to a leg injury. However, she should be able to return to racing later this year.
Calvin Borel is confident that he can get Super Saver to relax in the Kentucky Derby.
Robby Albarado has chosen Endorsement over Noble's Promise as his Kentucky Derby mount. This may be partly due to the fact that Noble's Promise may not run in the Derby.
Noble's Promise worked a blazing five furlongs at Churchill Downs on April 20th, and is now "60-40" for the Derby.
Todd Pletcher has announced that he is considering running Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. This decision may be based on the fact that just three days ago, the filly worked the fastest of fourteen five furlongs workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Among the horses who worked slower than Devil May Care were A Little Warm, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Ibboyee, Mission Impazible, and Rule. Hmm . . .
AND NOW ONE LAST THING. . .
Can you believe that I'm not done yet? Nope, I still have one last thing to say.
With only one week remaining until Derby day, things are really starting to get hot. All the focus is on Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and a few others who have worked out sharply.
However, it is worth mentioning that there is a colt who is being overlooked, and has been overlooked for many months.
I'm going to say it now, because if he was to win the Derby, I would like to be one of the few people who can say that they considered him a contender. His workouts have been rather good, and his trainer is confident that his colt will get a piece of it. Who is this colt?
I'll tell you on Thursday.
Why Thursday? Well, for one thing, I would like to keep this colt's identity secret for a while, because it's fun to look forward to secrets. For another thing, I would like to wait until after the post positions are drawn, because that way I can truly tell you what I think of him.
But I'm not going to let you forget about him. Every blog post from now until I reveal who he is, I'm going to mention "The Mystery Colt" who has a big chance at hitting the board in, or even winning, the Kentucky Derby.
And that, my friends, is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
(P.S. After the Derby Trial is run, I will be post something more or less every day until the Derby is over. Also, on May 1st, I will be live on my blog, updating as post time draws nearer. This is going to be so much fun! ! !)
Oh wait a minute . . . that's next Saturday. Or at least I hope that's what happens next Saturday.
Getting serious, there is only one week left before the Kentucky Derby. And amazingly, there is still one final prep. And that is the Derby Trial, which has been reduced to nothing over the past several years, but with the severe earnings problem many top horses are facing, it is once again a prime trial for the Derby. If you can believe it, two of the colts running may end up in the Derby if they win. So let's take a look at the tough ten horse field and see what we can figure out.
DERBY TRIAL (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, April 24th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
To begin with, there is the number one horse Game On Dude. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since running seventh in the Florida Derby behind Ice Box five weeks ago. He has been fairly consistent, but proved that he was no match for the best horses in Florida. Still, he will be ridden by Robby Albarado and will have to carry only 117 pounds, which is four less than the high weight Eightyfiveinafifty. He might be in the mix, but may not be quite as good as some of the others that are running.
This brings us to the number two horse Soaring Empire. Another colt making his first start back since the Florida Derby, the son of Empire Maker did not get a great trip in that race, and may step up and run a big one tomorrow. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro and will carry 117 pounds.
Then there is the number three horse Privilaged. The son of Southern Image has only made one start this year, and that was in the grade II Swale Stakes on the undercard of the Florida Derby. He actually ran a very good race that day, racing three wide while chasing the pace. He ended up third, beaten three and a half lengths. I actually like him pretty well here, and I think that he has the ability to step up and run the race of his life. He will be ridden by R. Maragh and will carry 117 pounds.
Now we come to the four horse Pleasant Prince. The 4-1 morning line second choice has been racing rather frequently. Five weeks ago he ran second in the Florida Derby. Two weeks ago he ran seventh in the Blue Grass, but it was obvious that he hated Keeneland's Polytrack. Now he intends to run in the in the Derby Trial, and should he win, the Kentucky Derby. That would be four races in six weeks. And his seventh of the year. If he can handle it, he is a very rare horse. Anyway, the son of Indy King will be carrying 117 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by regular rider Julien Leparoux, who won the Eclipse award last year for outstanding jockey.
Next up is the number five horse Hurricane Ike. The son of Graeme Hall has ran an excellent race last time out in his first start on dirt, running second to Eightfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes while earning the highest Beyer speed figure of his life. He has yet to be proven beyond seven furlongs, as in his only start beyond that distance he ran eleventh in the Breeders' Futurity, but that was many months ago, and it was at Keeneland. Tomorrow, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel, which is always a good thing.
But we mustn’t ignore the six horse Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft broke his maiden impressively earlier this year, but ran a horrible race in the Florida Derby, being beaten nearly thirty-five lengths while having no obvious excuse. But I am willing to excuse his poor performance there and assume that he is going to bounce back. He will carry 117 pounds tomorrow, five pounds less than he has ever carried in his life, and will be ridden for the first time by Jose Lezcano.
This brings us to the number seven horse Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow will be making his tenth lifetime start at the sixth different track. He seems to be one of those colts who runs either really well or really poorly. Looking at his workouts, I would say that he has taken to Churchill Downs rather well, and might be ready to run his best race tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who rode the colt to his best victory, an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park.
Then there is the number eight horse Hear Ye Hear Ye. You certainly can't knock the son of Hear No Evil's soundness, as the Derby Trial will be his fourteenth start and his second of the month. If you can believe it, he has run in at least one race every month since last May, excluding the month of January. He has won twice, but is a state-restricted stakes winner. He has finished in the top three only three times, but has finished fourth five times. I don't think he will be a very big contender tomorrow, but with Corey Nakatani on his back, you never know. He will carry 117 pounds.
Coming down to the final two entries, we find Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True ran the worst race of his career in his last start, the Blue Grass Stakes. He has no obvious reason, as he had run well over Keeneland's Polytrack before, and we can only hope that he will return to his prior racing form. However, he has run his best races while coming from off the pace, and he might have been just a tad too close to the lead in the Blue Grass. Hopefully, his jockey Garrett Gomez will take him back tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds.
Finally, we come to the ten horse Eightyfiveinafifty. This colt is the solid morning line favorite at 8-5, and will probably be lower by post time, but he seems to be a bit wild. Two starts back he failed to turn going into the first turn at Aqueduct in the mile and a sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes. He ended up with a broken bit and a cut which required stitches. And in his last start, the Bay Shore Stakes, he won easily, but was not paying much attention to the race. For the first fifty yards or so, he ran with his head turned towards the infield and never seems completely comfortable. Another question that I ask is can he go a mile? The answer is perhaps. We'll find out tomorrow. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and will carry top weight of 121 pounds.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Pleasant Prince
3 Aikenite
5 Privilaged
6 Soaring Empire
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Game On Dude
9 Wow Wow Wow
10 Hear Ye Hear Ye
It was a tough decision, but I guess I'm not going to pick a colt who might not finish the race. I know that he is probably past not making turns, but he still seems to be a very erratic horse and somewhat unpredictable. Still, he appears to be a step or two above every other horse in this race. My pick is Hurricane Ike, who got within two and a half lengths of Eightyfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes. With an extra furlong, who knows what might happen? Wow Wow Wow is another horse I like, but I can't see him lasting the mile distance with the pace that is going to be run. There is a lot of speed in this race. As for third, I couldn't make up my mind. Pleasant Prince is probably better than Aikenite, but Aikenite hasn't raced so frequently this year and may have a bit more left in the end. Pleasant Prince will probably be coming late, but I can't see him getting up in time. If Aikenite sticks close to the pace, he will probably fade. If he comes from behind, me might just get there. As for Miner's Reserve and Soaring Empire, both of them have a shot at winning, but I just can't see them doing it. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, as there is only one week left before the Derby, there aren’t exactly a ton of races remaining. As I glance over my National Stakes Conditions booklet, I see only a few stakes races worth mentioning. I'll begin with the Withers Stakes and Aqueduct.
The grade III Withers Stakes used to be a very prestigious race. In recent years, however, it has been reduced to nothing more than a prep for the Preakness. Still, the one mile race has attracted a quality field of three year olds this year, although as far as I know none of them are aiming for the Triple Crown. But you never know what might happen . . .
I'm only going to briefly describe the race, but I'll try to be as thorough as possible. The heavy favorite will likely be D' Funnybone, who will be trying for his fifth graded stakes win. He is undefeated this year, with dual seven furlong grade II victories, but the question is can he go a mile? There is a fair amount of speed in this race, most of it coming from Most Happy Fella and Castaneda. Interestingly, Most Happy Fella is the number one horse, D' Funnybone the number two horse, Castaneda the number three. There could be an interesting speed dual early. If that was to be the case, than Afleet Again and Ibboyee might come running late. I would not be surprised at all if D' Funnybone is upset. Finally, there is the number five horse Spangled Star. Nobody seems to think that he has a chance, but you never know. He only has to carry 116 pounds, the same as Most Happy Fella, and he might just have a shot.
RACE RESULTS
First off, I shall recap the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The mile and a sixteenth event drew a tough field of twelve, and Connemara was made the slight favorite over Uptowncharlybrown. Bushwhacked and Krypton were also well liked.
The way I saw it, there was just enough speed that the winner would come from behind. I just couldn't see Krypton or Exhi wiring the race. I felt that Call Shot would sit just off the pace and win by a length or so, with Uptowncharlybrown rallying late for second and Connemara getting up for third.
Exhi went wire-to-wire. Connemara finished tenth and Call Shot eleventh.
It just goes to show that I should stay away from Keeneland. I do okay handicapping the little races there, but I always falter when it comes to the stakes races. Exhi, sent off at nearly 20-1, set pretty good fractions from the start and held off Bushwhacked and Uptowncharlybrown for the win. (But I did correctly predict Chief Counsel to come in fourth.)
So here are the final results. . .
1 Exhi
2 Bushwhacked
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Chief Counsel
5 Prince Will I Am
6 Kettle River
7 Distorted Dave
8 Heavenville
9 Krypton
10 Connemara
11 Call Shot
12 Lonesome Street
. . . versus my selections.
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
I didn't do very well, but I didn't do all that terrible. (Okay, I did rotten. I had the winner to finish sixth and the runner up to finish last. The only horses I was right about were Chief Counsel and Distorted Dave!)
But I'm satisfied with the results. Although none of the runners will be making it to the Derby, it was still a good prep, and one of the runners might end up in either the Preakness or the Belmont.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin with, there was the six furlong KHEY Y-96 Sprint Stakes at Sunland Park. A field of nine was drawn, the favorite being Malibu Mystic. My personal pick was Haitian Hero, and despite the fact that his morning line odds were something like 9-2, he was sent off at 22-1.
In the early going, Malibu Mystic led, with El Confidential, a 25-1 shot, and Haitian Hero pressing him on the outside. But as they started their drives, Malibu Mystic gave way, leaving Haitian Hero and El Confidential to battle it out. Under the wire it was Haitian Hero, El Confidential second. Timbavati made a lot of ground to finish third. Malibu Mystic finished eighth, beaten seventeen lengths.
Then there was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. For three year olds, my pick was Center Divider, and he was sent off as the 3-2 favorite. Also well liked was Mister Marti Gras.
In the early going, Justamatteroftime set the pace, followed closely by Patti's Kitten and Down With Dixie. Center Divider sat fourth for much of the race.
However, around the final turn, Center Divider began his run. Moving strongly while four wide, he took the lead at the eighth pole and drew off to win by four. Patti's Kitten, at 10-1, finished second, with Looks Purrrfect third. Mister Marti Gras was fourth.
And finally, there was a mile and a sixteenth allowance race on the turf at Keeneland. For three year old fillies, the race drew six runners. The narrowest of favorites was Lisa's Kitten, with Joharmony the second choice. Lucky Lass and Laura Babe were also well bet.
As it turned out, the order of finish was nearly identical to the odds they were sent off at. Joharmany, my pick, finished first by a neck, with Lisa's Kitten second, three quarters of a length in front of Lucky Lass. It was another six back to Laura Babe, with Full Storm and Wildcat Dreamer trailing. So the winner was 2-1, the runner up was 2-1, the third place finisher was 3-1, the fourth place finisher 4-1, the fifth place finisher 11-1, and the trailer 19-1. The bettors at Keeneland were almost completely right. If Lisa's Kitten had gotten up in time, they would have been completely right. Wow.
UNDERCOVER AT THE DOWNS
With the Kentucky Derby coming closer every minute, "Undercover at the Downs" is dedicated to helping sort out all the stuff that is going on at Churchill Downs, including workouts, possible equipment changes, and other news. To begin, here are some contenders who have worked out over the past week or so.
WORKOUTS
APRIL 15th
Hurricane Ike breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Jackson Bend breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Privilaged breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Wow Wow Wow breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5.
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5.
APRIL 16th --- Churchill Downs
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 flat.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :50 flat.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Seeking the Title breezed four furlongs in :50 1/5.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5.
Stay Put breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Training
Dean's Kitten breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the co-fastest of ten workouts at that distance.
Kera's Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Downs
Aspire breezed three furlongs in :36 flat, the co-fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Naiche breezed three furlongs in :37 3/5 on a good track.
Cool Bullet breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Miner's Reserve breezed four furlongs in :46 flat, the fastest of fifty-four workouts at that distance.
Fist of Rage breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5 on a good track.
Sheer Beauty breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a good track.
Sidney's Candy breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5.
Champagne d'Oro breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat.
Crisp breezed six furlongs in 1:15 1/5.
Elusive Jozi breezed six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 on a good track, the fastest of eight workouts at that distance.
APRIL 18th --- Churchill Downs
Bravo Whiskey breezed four furlongs in :50 3/5.
Don't Put It Back breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5.
Raging Wit breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:04 flat.
Raphael Alexandro breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat. (Not a contender, but a cute name.)
Safe Trip breezed five furlongs in :59 flat, the fastest of thirty-two workouts at that distance.
Thiskyhasnolimit breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Vow to Wager breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
APRIL 19th --- Churchill Downs
Decelerator breezed four furlongs in :47 flat.
Guru breezed four furlongs in :51 flat.
Necassary Evil breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5.
Bell's Shoes breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Dublin breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5, the fastest of forty-four workouts at that distance.
Game On Dude breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Northern Giant breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5.
Crider breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5.
Hot Dixie Chick breezed six furlongs in 1:13 3/5.
APRIL 20th --- Churchill Downs
Beautician breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5.
Diva Delite breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Hurrican Ike breezed five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
Line of David breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Noble's Promise breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the fastest of thirty workouts at that distance.
Privilaged breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Awesome Act breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
Tidal Pool breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
APRIL 21st --- Churchill Downs
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in :58 3/5.
Fuzzy Britches breezed five furlongs in 1:04 3/5.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:14 4/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:12 flat.
APRIL 22nd --- Churchill Downs
Our Dark Knight breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Jackson Bend breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat, the co-fastest of twenty workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Downs
Doubles Partner breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a sloppy track.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :46 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-seven workouts at that distance.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a sloppy track.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Stay Put breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a wet fast track.
Ailalea breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Colizeo breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Paddy O’Prado breezed five furlongs in :58 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 on a sloppy track.
Crisp breezed five furlongs in 1:14 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of two workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Training
Dean’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in :1:01 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Kera’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
Stately Victor breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
OTHER TRIPLE CROWN NEWS
It sounds as though Lookin at Lucky will not wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby.
She Be Wild is out of the Kentucky Oaks due to a leg injury. However, she should be able to return to racing later this year.
Calvin Borel is confident that he can get Super Saver to relax in the Kentucky Derby.
Robby Albarado has chosen Endorsement over Noble's Promise as his Kentucky Derby mount. This may be partly due to the fact that Noble's Promise may not run in the Derby.
Noble's Promise worked a blazing five furlongs at Churchill Downs on April 20th, and is now "60-40" for the Derby.
Todd Pletcher has announced that he is considering running Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. This decision may be based on the fact that just three days ago, the filly worked the fastest of fourteen five furlongs workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Among the horses who worked slower than Devil May Care were A Little Warm, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Ibboyee, Mission Impazible, and Rule. Hmm . . .
AND NOW ONE LAST THING. . .
Can you believe that I'm not done yet? Nope, I still have one last thing to say.
With only one week remaining until Derby day, things are really starting to get hot. All the focus is on Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and a few others who have worked out sharply.
However, it is worth mentioning that there is a colt who is being overlooked, and has been overlooked for many months.
I'm going to say it now, because if he was to win the Derby, I would like to be one of the few people who can say that they considered him a contender. His workouts have been rather good, and his trainer is confident that his colt will get a piece of it. Who is this colt?
I'll tell you on Thursday.
Why Thursday? Well, for one thing, I would like to keep this colt's identity secret for a while, because it's fun to look forward to secrets. For another thing, I would like to wait until after the post positions are drawn, because that way I can truly tell you what I think of him.
But I'm not going to let you forget about him. Every blog post from now until I reveal who he is, I'm going to mention "The Mystery Colt" who has a big chance at hitting the board in, or even winning, the Kentucky Derby.
And that, my friends, is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
(P.S. After the Derby Trial is run, I will be post something more or less every day until the Derby is over. Also, on May 1st, I will be live on my blog, updating as post time draws nearer. This is going to be so much fun! ! !)
Friday, March 12, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 12th, 2010
Get ready ---- March 13th is going to be the greatest day of 2010 racing so far. With Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta ready to make their returns, Dublin to take another shot at returning to the winners circle, and Super Saver making his three year old debut, it's going to be a spectacular day. But before we examine any of the upcoming races, let us first take a look at what happened last week, beginning with the Gotham Stakes.
Here are the results. . .
1 Awesome Act
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Nacho Friend
4 Turf Melody
5 Shrimp Dancer
6 Peppi Knows
7 I've Got the Fever
8 Wow Wow Wow
9 Three Day Rush
10 Afleet Again
. . . versus my selections.
1 Afleet Again
2 Wow Wow Wow
3 Awesome Act
4 Three Day Rush
5 Peppi Knows
6 I've Got the Fever
7 Turf Melody
8 Nacho Friend
9 Shrimp Dancer
10 Yawanna Twist
Wow. . . was I wrong, or was I wrong!? It's obvious that Awesome Act was not affected by the plane flight from Europe four days before the race, nor did he care that he was racing on dirt. He made a great run from behind to grab a 1 1/4 length win, although Yawanna Twist was definitely flying at the finish. Speaking of Yawanna Twist, I had him picked to run last. When making the selections, I was a bit low on time, and failed to seriously examine him. Big mistake.
As I said on my last post, my pick was Afleet Again, although I knew that I would be taking a chance. Sent off at odds of 25-1, he ran last, beaten twenty-four lengths by the winner.
Nacho Friend, like Yawanna Twist, was a horse I failed to seriously examine. He ran an excellent race, but tired in the drive to finish third at odds of 8-1. Wow Wow Wow failed to run the race I thought he would, as did Three Day Rush. So I learned my lesson: When you see a name you don't know, find out who it is. . . fast.
Moving on, we come to the Sham Stakes. I assume that the race is named after Sham, runner up to Secretariat in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in 1973.
Here are the results. . .
1 Alphie's Bet
2 Setsuko
3 The Program
4 Outlaw Man
5 Boulder Creek
6 Marcello
7 Nextdoorneighbor
8 Kettle River
9 El Mirage King
10 Wolf Tail
. . . versus my selections.
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Marcello
8 Wolf Tail
9 Boulder Creek
10 Alphie's Bet
After this race was run, I truly realized that I need to pay more attention to the horses I haven't heard of. I always try to find out who they are prior to making my picks, but occasionally I just plain run out of time and fail to find all the information I need.
So, taking a look at how the race was run, Nextdoorneighbor took the early lead, which I thought was odd. I figured he would be farther back, but perhaps his jockey didn't want to be caught wide. But after a half mile in :47 3/5, I realized that Nextdoorneighbor would have to be a really, really good horse to win. After about three quarters of a mile had been run, I saw The Program make his move, and turning for home I thought it was the winning move.
But perhaps it came too early. Coming into the homestretch, it looked for a moment as though Nextdoorneighbor might accept the challenge and turn The Program back. But although the former gave it everything he had, he just couldn't stop The Program. Fading somewhat rapidly, Nextdoorneighbor finished seventh.
Still, The Program's worries weren't over yet. The favorite, Setsuko, was making a strong challenge on the outside, as was Alphie's Bet. The Program, who seemed to be running out of gas, finished third, three and a half lengths behind Alphie's Bet, and one and a quarter lengths behind Setsuko.
As for Outlaw Man, he really ran a good race, finishing fourth, beaten only a head for third. I wouldn't give up on him yet. Perhaps he will improve in his next start, or perhaps he will improve on dirt.
So my final thoughts? Nextdoorneighbor should try dirt. It appears to me that front runners don't do very well on synthetic tracks, and if that's the way he likes to run, he might find that he has better luck on a good old dirt. Perhaps the Sunland Derby is next? We'll find out soon.
Now it's time to discuss the Santa Anita Oaks. The grade I race for three year old fillies was headlined by Blind Luck, who was trying for her third straight grade I win. Sent off at the heavy favorite, she came from last after a half mile to finish. . . third.
On the surface, this looks like a poor effort. But considering what Blind Luck was forced to overcome, it was really an incredible effort.
To begin with, the pace was snail-like. All Due Respect, ridden by Garrett Gomez, broke fastest and got away with an opening quarter mile in :24 4/5. And if that wasn’t slow enough, she managed to run a still slower half mile fraction, :49 3/5. At this point, Blind Luck needed to turn in the type of run only Zenyatta can do to get the win. Incredibly, she did it.
Despite going three quarters of a mile in a pedestrian 1:13 4/5, Blind Luck began a rally. Her jockey made the decision to come up the rail, and it nearly worked. Blind Luck, full of run, willingly charged between horses but could find no openings. Finally, at the last possible moment, she and her jockey made a desperate move to the outside and Blind Luck made an incredible surge that startled me. She missed second by a neck, and the win by only a length. The winner, take nothing away from her, was Crisp. At odds of nearly 6-1, she was the third choice in the seven horse field. She sat second for most of the race before taking the lead from All Due Respect in the stretch. An excellent run, but she did get a much better trip than Blind Luck did.
As for All Due Respect, give credit to her and Garrett Gomez for setting such a slow pace. How they got away with it, I don't know. A great race for both of them.
Finally, Sister Dawn was scratched by her trainer before the race. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with her.
So here are the results. . .
1 Crisp
2 All Due Respect
3 Blind Luck
4 Warren's Jitterbug
5 Cozi Rosie
6 Zilva
7 Riviera Chic
. . . versus my selections.
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 All Due Respect
4 Zilva
5 Warren's Jitterbug
6 Cozi Rosie
7 Riveria Chic
So I was closer here than I was in the prior two races. I had the top three right, just not in order, and I had Riviera Chic to run last. As for fourth, fifth, and sixth, I was somewhat off, but not too badly.
One final note, it was announced that Blind Luck will ship to Arkansas and run in the Fantasy Stakes next month as her final prep for the Kentucky Oaks. Or will she run in the Kentucky Derby? I doubt it. But it's fun to think about.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Now, the three races I discussed above were not the only races run last week. Although the next two races I shall mention were run on turf, you never know where a Triple Crown contender will come from.
The first race was the Pasadena Stakes, run on the undercard of the Santa Anita Oaks and Sham Stakes. The heavy favorite was Macias, and rightfully so. But I had the suspicion that he might not want to go a mile, and that he might just tire inside the final eighth. After carefully analyzing all of the entries, I decided that Make Music for Me would catch him at the wire. I knew that he had been placing behind some very good horses, and that he seemed ready for a great run. I also liked Straightomidnight and Runaway Bandido.
Fortunately for me, I was able to see this race live, along with the Santa Anita Oaks, Sham Stakes, Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap, and Santa Anita Handicap. This also meant that I could see what the odds were. I figured that Macias would be the slight favorite with Make Music for Me the second choice. I knew that Alfarabia would get some play, and I assumed that Runaway Bandido would be something like 15-1. How wrong I was. Macias was the heavy favorite, Alfarabi was the second choice at about 4-1, Make Music for Me was about 7-1, and Runaway Bandido was sent off at 80-1.
But at least I had the race figured out. Macias set the pace and led into the stretch, but Make Music for Me passed him late to snatch a one length victory. Finishing third was Albaradi, Fantastic Pick was fourth, and Runaway Bandido came home fifth. As for Straightomidnight, I could tell watching him in the post parade that he was going to challenge Macias early and fade in the end. He just looked wound up and anxious to run. He finished last of ten.
So, I hit the exacta, and I was a very happy person the rest of the day.
Moving on, I must mention the Palm Beach Stakes, which was run last Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Bim Bam, who was coming off of a nose victory over Triple Crown hopeful Interactif. Looking over the entries, I felt that Bim Bam wasn't going to run a top race, but I wasn't sure who was going to beat him. In the end, I couldn't decide, so I decided not to make any picks. At the wire, it was Paddy O'Prado in front by two and a half lengths. Dean's Kitten finished second, Our Champion third, and Asphalt fourth. Bim Bam finished fifth after being bumped at the start. The final time was excellent, 1:45 2/5 for the mile and an eighth. Of course, it was still a good second and a half off of the world record, but it was still an incredible time. Who knows? Perhaps Paddy O'Prado will some day be known as the world record holder for a mile and an eighth. We'll see where he goes from here.
Then there was the Herecomesthebride Stakes, identical to the Palm Beach Stakes except that it was for fillies. I liked Upperline and In the Rough, but both were defeated by Khancord Kid, who went wire-to-wire to win by a half of a length. Finishing second was Apple Charlotte, with Upperline in third. In the Rough finished up seventh.
Finally, there was the Santa Anita Handicap and the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap. Both were for four year olds and up, but I mentioned them on my last post anyway. In the former, I went with St. Trinians, with Neko Bay to finish second and Misremembered to run third. St. Trinians ended up sixth, but Misremembered just held off Neko Bay for the win. In the latter, I went with the five year old mare Proviso, with Awesome Gem to finish second and Fluke to run third. As I watched, I could see that Fluke had the lead, and I could see where Awesome Gem was, but I couldn't find Proviso. As they turned for home, I was watching Awesome Gem, and I totally didn't see Proviso until I heard her name called. I looked back at Fluke and there she was, cutting into his lead with little ground remaining. Imagine how thrilled I was when she nailed him on the wire for a nose victory. With that win, she became the first filly or mare ever to win the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. And I saw it!
Now, with all of last week's races discussed, it's time to look at what's to come, beginning with the. . .
TAMPA BAY DERBY (gr. III) ---- Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Wow ---- that's what I thought when I looked at the entries for this race. I thought there couldn't possibly be a race as tough to figure out as this one. Then I saw the entries for the Rebel Stakes. But we'll discuss that one later.
For now, let's stick to the Tampa Bay Derby. This mile and a sixteenth race drew Super Saver, impressive winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. It also attracted the impressive optional claiming race winner Odysseus, the improving Uptowncharlybrown, and the interesting colt Schoolyard Dreams. So let's take a closer look at the entries, beginning with the number one horse, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was victorious in his first two starts before making a huge class jump in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. In that race, he met up with top Triple Crown hopeful Rule, and ended up third, four lengths behind the winner, Rule, and one length behind the runner up, Schoolyard Dreams. Although it wasn't a win, it was a good race, and he was really closing at the finish. He should continue to improve, and should be a major threat on Saturday, especially with only 116 pounds on his back. As if that wasn't enough, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time.
The number two horse is Tuvia's Force. The son of Mineshaft comes off of a third to Wildcat Frankie and Bank the Eight in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The competition that beat him wasn't that great, but he was making up considerable ground late. He will likely improve off of that race. He'll have to really step up in class, but he'll only have to carry 116 pounds. His workouts have been great. He could run a huge race.
The number three horse is Gleam of Hope. This City Zip colt seems to run either really well or really badly. He doesn't appear to be on the same level as some of the other entries, but he could have a shot at the money. However, he will have to carry 122 pounds, which is the co-top weight with Super Saver. He will have to give away six pounds to all of the other entries. This could affect the outcome of the race. Still, I think he has a shot at hitting the board.
The number four horse is Slammy Boy. A son of Grand Slam, this will be his fifth race, and his first in stakes company. He has been against some decent competition, including Prince Will I Am, Outlaw Man, and Doubles Partner, but he doesn't look quite ready for this level of competition. He will carry 116 pounds.
This brings us to the number five horse, Schoolyard Dreams. In his first race, he finished third behind Afleet Again and Laus Deo. In his next start, he defeated Tempted to Tapit. In his first start of 2010, he won an optional claiming race, and then finished second to Rule in the Sam F. Davis Stakes while defeating Uptowncharlybrown. Carrying 116 pounds, he should be in the mix. It's also possible that he could provide some pace, as he likes to race near the lead. His workouts have been excellent.
Then there is the number six horse, the morning line favorite Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon likes to have the lead, a style that possibly cost him the Champagne Stakes last year. However, the colt redeemed himself by going wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. I believe that if he is to have any shot at the race, he is going to have to set a slow pace. Not necessarily snail like, but slower than in the Champagne. I think that if he goes three quarters of a mile in 1:10 3/5 tomorrow, he's going to be tough to catch. However, if he goes that same distance in 1:09 2/5, like he did in the Champagne, he's going to have to show another gear in the stretch if he's going to hang on.
And so finally, we come to the number seven horse, Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon has the biggest question to answer. How good is he? In his last race, and Optional Claiming race, he exploded as they turned for home and drew off at will to win by fifteen lengths. It was a huge performance, his best so far. And it was at this same track, at this same distance. With only 116 pounds on his back, he looks ready to fire another big one. And it would be crazy if a horse with a name like his didn't turn out to be something special. Odysseus? That's a name that goes with the rest of the Triple Crown winners.
So, here are my selections for the race.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Odysseus
3 Super Saver
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Tuvia's Force
6 Gleam of Hope
7 Slammy Boy
That said, let me contradict everything. I think that Odysseus is capable of winning the race. He just keeps improving and should be able to handle the competition. It looks to me like Uptowncharlybrown is sitting on a big one, and he should be really closing late. As for Super Saver, I think that this is going to be a tough spot back, and that he may not be completely primed for a best effort. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts.
Getting back to the top two, I just couldn't decide whether Uptowncharlybrown or Odysseus looked better here. I had actually written Odysseus into the top spot when I remembered that Uptowncharlybrown would be wearing blinkers for the first time. So, after much thought, I reluctantly removed Odysseus from the top spot and put Uptowncharlybrown in his place. However, if I was going to bet the race, which I won't, I would go with both of them. Maybe place two exactas, one with Uptowncharlybrown on the top, the other with Odysseus in that place. Of course, it's hard to ignore Super Saver, but I guess that I just don't think that he's ready. Last of all, I think that Schoolyard Dreams has the potential to win the race, but I just don't like him here as well as I like the other three.
That said, I think that it is time to move on to the. . .
SAN FELIPE STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita Park, Race 9, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
A few days before the entries for this race were released, I sat down and thought about who might show up. I figured that I would see the names Caracortado, Dave in Dixie, and if I was lucky, American Lion. I couldn't imagine the race getting any better.
It did.
When the entries were announced, I was amazed to see Interactif among them, and even more surprised to see Sidney's Candy. All of a sudden, the race got just that much harder to figure out.
First off, I shall discuss the number one horse, Stephen's Got Hope. The son of Stephen Got Even has won no races so far, and appears to be out of place here. But after Paddy O'Prado won the Palm Beach Stakes for his first win last week, who knows? He will carry 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Tyler Baze. One final interesting fact, he is a Texas-bred, which I don't see all that often. Or maybe I've just never noticed them before. . .
Then there is the number two horse, Interactif. The son of Broken Vow won two grade III races on the turf last year before finishing third in a very tight Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He was then given a rest until February before reemerging for the Hallandale Beach Stakes. In that race, he tracked the pace set by Bim Bam, overtook the latter in the stretch, but lost the race when Bim Bam came back at him to grab a nose victory. He has not raced since then. As for tomorrow's race, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. If he likes the synthetics, he should be able to run a good race.
This brings us to the number three horse, Erbeia. The son of Pulpit has only a maiden win to his credit, and he looks a bit outclassed here. Tomorrow, he will carry 115 pounds and will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Then there is the number four horse, American Lion. The son of Tiznow has won two of his four races. In 2009, he won the seven furlong Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). In his 2010 debut, he tracked the pace set by Tiz Chrome in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and gave way late, finishing third behind Caracortado and Dave in Dixie. Tomorrow, he will wear blinkers for the first time. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux and will carry 117 pounds. It's hard to say whether he will race close to the pace, as he did in the Robert B. Lewis, or try racing farther back. If he chooses the former, he'll have to prove that he can stay with Sidney's Candy. If he chooses the latter, he'll have to catch Sidney's Candy.
Moving on, we come to the number five horse, Sidney's Candy. The son of Candy Ride will be making his two turn debut. He was very impressive in his last start, going wire-to-wire in the San Vincente Stakes to win by four and a half lengths. If he can carry his speed two turns, watch out. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Talamo.
The number six horse is perhaps the most intriguing. In that gate will be Dave in Dixie. The son of Dixie Union was the runner up in last month's Robert B. Lewis Stakes. In that race, he was perhaps the most impressive of everyone running, rocketing from behind with a late run in his first start since October 4th, 2009. I suspect that he will run even better tomorrow than he did last month. He will be ridden by Joel Rosario, and will carry only 115 pounds, four less than Caracortado will.
Speaking of Caracortado, he is the number seven horse. The impressive winner of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes is undefeated in five starts so far, and is looking to make it six. A son of Cat Dreams, he is a gelding, so it would be really cool if he continues to improve. Perhaps he will become the next Kelso! Getting back to tomorrow's race, he will be ridden by Paul Atkinson and will carry 119 pounds, the high weight of the seven entries.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 Dave in Dixie
3 American Lion
4 Interactif
5 Sidney's Candy
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Erbeia
Well, it was a tough race to figure out, but I guess I think that Caracortado is ready for another great performance. I feel that Dave in Dixie is only going to improve now that he has a prep under him. American Lion should also improve, based on the addition of blinkers and a two turn race under his belt. Interactif has been running very consistently, but I'm concerned that he just isn't good enough. Sidney's Candy definitely has talent, and I'm sure he will run a good race, but I suspect that the pace in this race may be a bit fast, and I've also noticed that closers do better at Santa Anita than front runners. As for Stephen's Got Hope and Erbeia, I feel that they just aren't capable of beating this field. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts. One final note, if Interactif races off the pace tomorrow, than ignore everything I said about him not being good enough. I think that if he goes back to coming from behind, he'll finish in the top three. Maybe he'll even win.
Now I believe that it is time to move on to the. . .
REBEL STAKES (gr. II) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 10, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Wow . . . what a race this is going to be. Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble's Promise. Three grade I winners. This is going to be exciting . . . and influential.
To begin with, Dublin and Lookin at Lucky are my top two picks for the Triple Crown, in that order. I also greatly respect Noble's Promise, and will not forget about Uh Oh Bango. The winner of this race, if he wins it the right way, will likely top my "The Twenty" list. So get ready. Let's take a look at who's running.
First off, there is the number one horse, Cardiff Giant. The son of Yankee Gentleman was most recently third in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance and Dublin. Carrying only 115 pounds, he should be in the mix. His style of coming from behind should benefit him in this race. The question is, can he out close Dublin?
Then there is the number two horse, Lookin at Lucky. The son of Smart Strike has won five of six starts, his only loss coming in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he finished second, beaten only a head by longshot Vale of York. In that race, Vale of York raced along the rail, while Lookin at Lucky was caught extremely wide on both turns. So it further proves how good a colt Lookin at Lucky is. He returned later that year to capture the CashCall Futurity by three quarters of a length, sewing up the Eclipse Award for champion two year old colt. However, he does have a habit of easing up when he takes the lead, which could lead to trouble if a colt like Dublin was to coming rocketing from behind and catch him off guard. So Bob Baffert, Lookin at Lucky's trainer, has added blinkers for the first time. He believes that they will help his talented colt stay focused. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and will carry 119 pounds.
Now we move on to the number three horse, Royal Express. The son of Royal Academy comes off of a runner up performance in the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes behind Backtalk. He will likely set the pace tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by P. Compton.
This brings us to the number four horse, Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit has not raced since finishing a neck behind top Kentucky Derby hopeful Rule in last December's Delta Jackpot Stakes. He has never finished worse than second, and should really be in the mix tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by G. W. Corbett.
But of course, we must not forget Pleasant Storm. The late-running son of Pleasant Tap failed to put in a rally while finishing seventh in last month's Southwest Stakes, but prior to that, he finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Carrying 117 pounds, he will be ridden by J. K. Court. He doesn't appear to be as good as some of the other colts in this race, but if he's lucky, he could get a piece of the money.
Next up for discussion is the number six horse, Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been very consistent his entire career, winning three races, finishing second in two, and third in one from six starts. Winner of the Breeders' Futurity last fall, his best race probably cam in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he ran an incredible race to be beaten only a length by Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky. Following that performance, he finished second to Lookin at Lucky after making a big move in the CashCall Futurity. Like the latter, he will be making his first start since then. I believe that he is ready to run the best race of his career. He will carry 119 pounds, and will be ridden for the first time by Robby Albarado.
Finally, we come to the number seven horse, Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex was my early Kentucky Derby pick after he won the Hopeful Stakes, but I eventually switched over to Buddy's Saint. After Buddy's Saint ran into disaster in the Fountain of Youth, Dublin once again reclaimed the top spot as my pick for the Triple Crown. I was very proud of him when he ran second in the Southwest Stakes, and I think that he's ready for an even better effort tomorrow. With the extra sixteenth of a mile, as well as the presence of more pace, he should be flying late. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
So here are my selections for the Rebel Stakes. . .
1 Dublin
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Noble's Promise
4 Cardiff Giant
5 Uh Oh Bango
6 Pleasant Storm
7 Royal Express
I think that the pace is going to be very fast tomorrow, and I think that Lookin at Lucky will be pushing it. With Noble's Promise, Royal Express, and Uh Oh Bango all interested in the lead, I think that the race is going to set up perfectly for Dublin. The latter already raced once this year, and should be ready for an excellent effort. Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise should be able to run great races, but I think that neither of them a primed to run their best. As for Cardiff Giant, he's already raced twice this year, and seems to be improving. Uh Oh Bango seems to be a fine colt, but I think that he will be cooked by the early pace. I could be wrong, but that's what I think. Pleasant Storm might be able to get a piece of the money, but I don't think he's quite good enough. Finally, I think that Royal Express will set the pace and tire in the drive. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although it's going to be fabulous watching all of the great races tomorrow, it's also unfortunate that I can't discuss all of them as thoroughly as I would like. So I will just quickly mention a few of the better races that shall be run this Saturday, beginning with the six furlong Cicada Stakes, held at Aqueduct.
The race is headlined by Bickersons, who is returning only two weeks after her fourth place finish in last month's Davona Dale Stakes. That race was perhaps a bit long for her, being one mile, and she should be able to rebound tomorrow. If anybody is going to beat her, I feel it will be either Female Drama, Liam's Dream, or Fuzzy Britches. It should be a good race.
Then of course, there is the Florida Oaks, run at Tampa Bay Downs. The big name here is She Be Wild, winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Eclipse Award for champion two year old filly. In her last start, she was soundly beaten by Bickersons in the seven furlong Forward Gal Stakes. Also in the race is Diva Delight, winner of the Gasparilla and Suncoast Stakes this year. Both of those wins came at this track.
It looks like a tough race to win, but I feel that She Be Wild is ready to rebound, and has an excellent shot at winning. Diva Delight should also be in the mix, as will Cuff Me and Awesome Vow. I respect Miss Afleet Alex and Imaginary Saint as well. I can't wait for the results.
Finally, there are the two races that I have been waiting for the most: The Santa Margarita Invitational and the New Orleans Ladies. In the latter, 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Zenyatta will make her return, and in the former, Rachel Alexandra will make hers. Both fillies will likely be sent off as the favorites, but both have questions to answer. Can Zenyatta give away eight to twelve pounds in her first start since the early November? And is Rachel Alexandra fit enough to defeat her four rivals, having not raced since early September? I think that both of them will win rather easily. Zenyatta has the harder race to win, but I feel that she is better prepared and will run one of the best races of her life. Rachel Alexandra probably won't win by twenty, but she should win with relative ease. Zardana will likely be in the mix, as will Clear Sailing. They are going to have to work for their wins, but they are two of the greatest fillies of all time. I have no doubts that both of them will find a way to win. Twenty-six days until the Apple Blossom. . . let's hope it works out.
-Keelerman
Here are the results. . .
1 Awesome Act
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Nacho Friend
4 Turf Melody
5 Shrimp Dancer
6 Peppi Knows
7 I've Got the Fever
8 Wow Wow Wow
9 Three Day Rush
10 Afleet Again
. . . versus my selections.
1 Afleet Again
2 Wow Wow Wow
3 Awesome Act
4 Three Day Rush
5 Peppi Knows
6 I've Got the Fever
7 Turf Melody
8 Nacho Friend
9 Shrimp Dancer
10 Yawanna Twist
Wow. . . was I wrong, or was I wrong!? It's obvious that Awesome Act was not affected by the plane flight from Europe four days before the race, nor did he care that he was racing on dirt. He made a great run from behind to grab a 1 1/4 length win, although Yawanna Twist was definitely flying at the finish. Speaking of Yawanna Twist, I had him picked to run last. When making the selections, I was a bit low on time, and failed to seriously examine him. Big mistake.
As I said on my last post, my pick was Afleet Again, although I knew that I would be taking a chance. Sent off at odds of 25-1, he ran last, beaten twenty-four lengths by the winner.
Nacho Friend, like Yawanna Twist, was a horse I failed to seriously examine. He ran an excellent race, but tired in the drive to finish third at odds of 8-1. Wow Wow Wow failed to run the race I thought he would, as did Three Day Rush. So I learned my lesson: When you see a name you don't know, find out who it is. . . fast.
Moving on, we come to the Sham Stakes. I assume that the race is named after Sham, runner up to Secretariat in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes in 1973.
Here are the results. . .
1 Alphie's Bet
2 Setsuko
3 The Program
4 Outlaw Man
5 Boulder Creek
6 Marcello
7 Nextdoorneighbor
8 Kettle River
9 El Mirage King
10 Wolf Tail
. . . versus my selections.
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Marcello
8 Wolf Tail
9 Boulder Creek
10 Alphie's Bet
After this race was run, I truly realized that I need to pay more attention to the horses I haven't heard of. I always try to find out who they are prior to making my picks, but occasionally I just plain run out of time and fail to find all the information I need.
So, taking a look at how the race was run, Nextdoorneighbor took the early lead, which I thought was odd. I figured he would be farther back, but perhaps his jockey didn't want to be caught wide. But after a half mile in :47 3/5, I realized that Nextdoorneighbor would have to be a really, really good horse to win. After about three quarters of a mile had been run, I saw The Program make his move, and turning for home I thought it was the winning move.
But perhaps it came too early. Coming into the homestretch, it looked for a moment as though Nextdoorneighbor might accept the challenge and turn The Program back. But although the former gave it everything he had, he just couldn't stop The Program. Fading somewhat rapidly, Nextdoorneighbor finished seventh.
Still, The Program's worries weren't over yet. The favorite, Setsuko, was making a strong challenge on the outside, as was Alphie's Bet. The Program, who seemed to be running out of gas, finished third, three and a half lengths behind Alphie's Bet, and one and a quarter lengths behind Setsuko.
As for Outlaw Man, he really ran a good race, finishing fourth, beaten only a head for third. I wouldn't give up on him yet. Perhaps he will improve in his next start, or perhaps he will improve on dirt.
So my final thoughts? Nextdoorneighbor should try dirt. It appears to me that front runners don't do very well on synthetic tracks, and if that's the way he likes to run, he might find that he has better luck on a good old dirt. Perhaps the Sunland Derby is next? We'll find out soon.
Now it's time to discuss the Santa Anita Oaks. The grade I race for three year old fillies was headlined by Blind Luck, who was trying for her third straight grade I win. Sent off at the heavy favorite, she came from last after a half mile to finish. . . third.
On the surface, this looks like a poor effort. But considering what Blind Luck was forced to overcome, it was really an incredible effort.
To begin with, the pace was snail-like. All Due Respect, ridden by Garrett Gomez, broke fastest and got away with an opening quarter mile in :24 4/5. And if that wasn’t slow enough, she managed to run a still slower half mile fraction, :49 3/5. At this point, Blind Luck needed to turn in the type of run only Zenyatta can do to get the win. Incredibly, she did it.
Despite going three quarters of a mile in a pedestrian 1:13 4/5, Blind Luck began a rally. Her jockey made the decision to come up the rail, and it nearly worked. Blind Luck, full of run, willingly charged between horses but could find no openings. Finally, at the last possible moment, she and her jockey made a desperate move to the outside and Blind Luck made an incredible surge that startled me. She missed second by a neck, and the win by only a length. The winner, take nothing away from her, was Crisp. At odds of nearly 6-1, she was the third choice in the seven horse field. She sat second for most of the race before taking the lead from All Due Respect in the stretch. An excellent run, but she did get a much better trip than Blind Luck did.
As for All Due Respect, give credit to her and Garrett Gomez for setting such a slow pace. How they got away with it, I don't know. A great race for both of them.
Finally, Sister Dawn was scratched by her trainer before the race. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with her.
So here are the results. . .
1 Crisp
2 All Due Respect
3 Blind Luck
4 Warren's Jitterbug
5 Cozi Rosie
6 Zilva
7 Riviera Chic
. . . versus my selections.
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 All Due Respect
4 Zilva
5 Warren's Jitterbug
6 Cozi Rosie
7 Riveria Chic
So I was closer here than I was in the prior two races. I had the top three right, just not in order, and I had Riviera Chic to run last. As for fourth, fifth, and sixth, I was somewhat off, but not too badly.
One final note, it was announced that Blind Luck will ship to Arkansas and run in the Fantasy Stakes next month as her final prep for the Kentucky Oaks. Or will she run in the Kentucky Derby? I doubt it. But it's fun to think about.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Now, the three races I discussed above were not the only races run last week. Although the next two races I shall mention were run on turf, you never know where a Triple Crown contender will come from.
The first race was the Pasadena Stakes, run on the undercard of the Santa Anita Oaks and Sham Stakes. The heavy favorite was Macias, and rightfully so. But I had the suspicion that he might not want to go a mile, and that he might just tire inside the final eighth. After carefully analyzing all of the entries, I decided that Make Music for Me would catch him at the wire. I knew that he had been placing behind some very good horses, and that he seemed ready for a great run. I also liked Straightomidnight and Runaway Bandido.
Fortunately for me, I was able to see this race live, along with the Santa Anita Oaks, Sham Stakes, Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap, and Santa Anita Handicap. This also meant that I could see what the odds were. I figured that Macias would be the slight favorite with Make Music for Me the second choice. I knew that Alfarabia would get some play, and I assumed that Runaway Bandido would be something like 15-1. How wrong I was. Macias was the heavy favorite, Alfarabi was the second choice at about 4-1, Make Music for Me was about 7-1, and Runaway Bandido was sent off at 80-1.
But at least I had the race figured out. Macias set the pace and led into the stretch, but Make Music for Me passed him late to snatch a one length victory. Finishing third was Albaradi, Fantastic Pick was fourth, and Runaway Bandido came home fifth. As for Straightomidnight, I could tell watching him in the post parade that he was going to challenge Macias early and fade in the end. He just looked wound up and anxious to run. He finished last of ten.
So, I hit the exacta, and I was a very happy person the rest of the day.
Moving on, I must mention the Palm Beach Stakes, which was run last Saturday at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Bim Bam, who was coming off of a nose victory over Triple Crown hopeful Interactif. Looking over the entries, I felt that Bim Bam wasn't going to run a top race, but I wasn't sure who was going to beat him. In the end, I couldn't decide, so I decided not to make any picks. At the wire, it was Paddy O'Prado in front by two and a half lengths. Dean's Kitten finished second, Our Champion third, and Asphalt fourth. Bim Bam finished fifth after being bumped at the start. The final time was excellent, 1:45 2/5 for the mile and an eighth. Of course, it was still a good second and a half off of the world record, but it was still an incredible time. Who knows? Perhaps Paddy O'Prado will some day be known as the world record holder for a mile and an eighth. We'll see where he goes from here.
Then there was the Herecomesthebride Stakes, identical to the Palm Beach Stakes except that it was for fillies. I liked Upperline and In the Rough, but both were defeated by Khancord Kid, who went wire-to-wire to win by a half of a length. Finishing second was Apple Charlotte, with Upperline in third. In the Rough finished up seventh.
Finally, there was the Santa Anita Handicap and the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap. Both were for four year olds and up, but I mentioned them on my last post anyway. In the former, I went with St. Trinians, with Neko Bay to finish second and Misremembered to run third. St. Trinians ended up sixth, but Misremembered just held off Neko Bay for the win. In the latter, I went with the five year old mare Proviso, with Awesome Gem to finish second and Fluke to run third. As I watched, I could see that Fluke had the lead, and I could see where Awesome Gem was, but I couldn't find Proviso. As they turned for home, I was watching Awesome Gem, and I totally didn't see Proviso until I heard her name called. I looked back at Fluke and there she was, cutting into his lead with little ground remaining. Imagine how thrilled I was when she nailed him on the wire for a nose victory. With that win, she became the first filly or mare ever to win the Frank E. Kilroe Mile. And I saw it!
Now, with all of last week's races discussed, it's time to look at what's to come, beginning with the. . .
TAMPA BAY DERBY (gr. III) ---- Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
Wow ---- that's what I thought when I looked at the entries for this race. I thought there couldn't possibly be a race as tough to figure out as this one. Then I saw the entries for the Rebel Stakes. But we'll discuss that one later.
For now, let's stick to the Tampa Bay Derby. This mile and a sixteenth race drew Super Saver, impressive winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. It also attracted the impressive optional claiming race winner Odysseus, the improving Uptowncharlybrown, and the interesting colt Schoolyard Dreams. So let's take a closer look at the entries, beginning with the number one horse, Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse was victorious in his first two starts before making a huge class jump in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. In that race, he met up with top Triple Crown hopeful Rule, and ended up third, four lengths behind the winner, Rule, and one length behind the runner up, Schoolyard Dreams. Although it wasn't a win, it was a good race, and he was really closing at the finish. He should continue to improve, and should be a major threat on Saturday, especially with only 116 pounds on his back. As if that wasn't enough, he will be wearing blinkers for the first time.
The number two horse is Tuvia's Force. The son of Mineshaft comes off of a third to Wildcat Frankie and Bank the Eight in a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The competition that beat him wasn't that great, but he was making up considerable ground late. He will likely improve off of that race. He'll have to really step up in class, but he'll only have to carry 116 pounds. His workouts have been great. He could run a huge race.
The number three horse is Gleam of Hope. This City Zip colt seems to run either really well or really badly. He doesn't appear to be on the same level as some of the other entries, but he could have a shot at the money. However, he will have to carry 122 pounds, which is the co-top weight with Super Saver. He will have to give away six pounds to all of the other entries. This could affect the outcome of the race. Still, I think he has a shot at hitting the board.
The number four horse is Slammy Boy. A son of Grand Slam, this will be his fifth race, and his first in stakes company. He has been against some decent competition, including Prince Will I Am, Outlaw Man, and Doubles Partner, but he doesn't look quite ready for this level of competition. He will carry 116 pounds.
This brings us to the number five horse, Schoolyard Dreams. In his first race, he finished third behind Afleet Again and Laus Deo. In his next start, he defeated Tempted to Tapit. In his first start of 2010, he won an optional claiming race, and then finished second to Rule in the Sam F. Davis Stakes while defeating Uptowncharlybrown. Carrying 116 pounds, he should be in the mix. It's also possible that he could provide some pace, as he likes to race near the lead. His workouts have been excellent.
Then there is the number six horse, the morning line favorite Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon likes to have the lead, a style that possibly cost him the Champagne Stakes last year. However, the colt redeemed himself by going wire-to-wire in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November. I believe that if he is to have any shot at the race, he is going to have to set a slow pace. Not necessarily snail like, but slower than in the Champagne. I think that if he goes three quarters of a mile in 1:10 3/5 tomorrow, he's going to be tough to catch. However, if he goes that same distance in 1:09 2/5, like he did in the Champagne, he's going to have to show another gear in the stretch if he's going to hang on.
And so finally, we come to the number seven horse, Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon has the biggest question to answer. How good is he? In his last race, and Optional Claiming race, he exploded as they turned for home and drew off at will to win by fifteen lengths. It was a huge performance, his best so far. And it was at this same track, at this same distance. With only 116 pounds on his back, he looks ready to fire another big one. And it would be crazy if a horse with a name like his didn't turn out to be something special. Odysseus? That's a name that goes with the rest of the Triple Crown winners.
So, here are my selections for the race.
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Odysseus
3 Super Saver
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Tuvia's Force
6 Gleam of Hope
7 Slammy Boy
That said, let me contradict everything. I think that Odysseus is capable of winning the race. He just keeps improving and should be able to handle the competition. It looks to me like Uptowncharlybrown is sitting on a big one, and he should be really closing late. As for Super Saver, I think that this is going to be a tough spot back, and that he may not be completely primed for a best effort. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts.
Getting back to the top two, I just couldn't decide whether Uptowncharlybrown or Odysseus looked better here. I had actually written Odysseus into the top spot when I remembered that Uptowncharlybrown would be wearing blinkers for the first time. So, after much thought, I reluctantly removed Odysseus from the top spot and put Uptowncharlybrown in his place. However, if I was going to bet the race, which I won't, I would go with both of them. Maybe place two exactas, one with Uptowncharlybrown on the top, the other with Odysseus in that place. Of course, it's hard to ignore Super Saver, but I guess that I just don't think that he's ready. Last of all, I think that Schoolyard Dreams has the potential to win the race, but I just don't like him here as well as I like the other three.
That said, I think that it is time to move on to the. . .
SAN FELIPE STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita Park, Race 9, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
A few days before the entries for this race were released, I sat down and thought about who might show up. I figured that I would see the names Caracortado, Dave in Dixie, and if I was lucky, American Lion. I couldn't imagine the race getting any better.
It did.
When the entries were announced, I was amazed to see Interactif among them, and even more surprised to see Sidney's Candy. All of a sudden, the race got just that much harder to figure out.
First off, I shall discuss the number one horse, Stephen's Got Hope. The son of Stephen Got Even has won no races so far, and appears to be out of place here. But after Paddy O'Prado won the Palm Beach Stakes for his first win last week, who knows? He will carry 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Tyler Baze. One final interesting fact, he is a Texas-bred, which I don't see all that often. Or maybe I've just never noticed them before. . .
Then there is the number two horse, Interactif. The son of Broken Vow won two grade III races on the turf last year before finishing third in a very tight Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. He was then given a rest until February before reemerging for the Hallandale Beach Stakes. In that race, he tracked the pace set by Bim Bam, overtook the latter in the stretch, but lost the race when Bim Bam came back at him to grab a nose victory. He has not raced since then. As for tomorrow's race, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. If he likes the synthetics, he should be able to run a good race.
This brings us to the number three horse, Erbeia. The son of Pulpit has only a maiden win to his credit, and he looks a bit outclassed here. Tomorrow, he will carry 115 pounds and will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Then there is the number four horse, American Lion. The son of Tiznow has won two of his four races. In 2009, he won the seven furlong Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). In his 2010 debut, he tracked the pace set by Tiz Chrome in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and gave way late, finishing third behind Caracortado and Dave in Dixie. Tomorrow, he will wear blinkers for the first time. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux and will carry 117 pounds. It's hard to say whether he will race close to the pace, as he did in the Robert B. Lewis, or try racing farther back. If he chooses the former, he'll have to prove that he can stay with Sidney's Candy. If he chooses the latter, he'll have to catch Sidney's Candy.
Moving on, we come to the number five horse, Sidney's Candy. The son of Candy Ride will be making his two turn debut. He was very impressive in his last start, going wire-to-wire in the San Vincente Stakes to win by four and a half lengths. If he can carry his speed two turns, watch out. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Talamo.
The number six horse is perhaps the most intriguing. In that gate will be Dave in Dixie. The son of Dixie Union was the runner up in last month's Robert B. Lewis Stakes. In that race, he was perhaps the most impressive of everyone running, rocketing from behind with a late run in his first start since October 4th, 2009. I suspect that he will run even better tomorrow than he did last month. He will be ridden by Joel Rosario, and will carry only 115 pounds, four less than Caracortado will.
Speaking of Caracortado, he is the number seven horse. The impressive winner of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes is undefeated in five starts so far, and is looking to make it six. A son of Cat Dreams, he is a gelding, so it would be really cool if he continues to improve. Perhaps he will become the next Kelso! Getting back to tomorrow's race, he will be ridden by Paul Atkinson and will carry 119 pounds, the high weight of the seven entries.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 Dave in Dixie
3 American Lion
4 Interactif
5 Sidney's Candy
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Erbeia
Well, it was a tough race to figure out, but I guess I think that Caracortado is ready for another great performance. I feel that Dave in Dixie is only going to improve now that he has a prep under him. American Lion should also improve, based on the addition of blinkers and a two turn race under his belt. Interactif has been running very consistently, but I'm concerned that he just isn't good enough. Sidney's Candy definitely has talent, and I'm sure he will run a good race, but I suspect that the pace in this race may be a bit fast, and I've also noticed that closers do better at Santa Anita than front runners. As for Stephen's Got Hope and Erbeia, I feel that they just aren't capable of beating this field. I could be wrong, but those are my thoughts. One final note, if Interactif races off the pace tomorrow, than ignore everything I said about him not being good enough. I think that if he goes back to coming from behind, he'll finish in the top three. Maybe he'll even win.
Now I believe that it is time to move on to the. . .
REBEL STAKES (gr. II) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 10, March 13th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Wow . . . what a race this is going to be. Dublin, Lookin at Lucky, and Noble's Promise. Three grade I winners. This is going to be exciting . . . and influential.
To begin with, Dublin and Lookin at Lucky are my top two picks for the Triple Crown, in that order. I also greatly respect Noble's Promise, and will not forget about Uh Oh Bango. The winner of this race, if he wins it the right way, will likely top my "The Twenty" list. So get ready. Let's take a look at who's running.
First off, there is the number one horse, Cardiff Giant. The son of Yankee Gentleman was most recently third in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance and Dublin. Carrying only 115 pounds, he should be in the mix. His style of coming from behind should benefit him in this race. The question is, can he out close Dublin?
Then there is the number two horse, Lookin at Lucky. The son of Smart Strike has won five of six starts, his only loss coming in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which he finished second, beaten only a head by longshot Vale of York. In that race, Vale of York raced along the rail, while Lookin at Lucky was caught extremely wide on both turns. So it further proves how good a colt Lookin at Lucky is. He returned later that year to capture the CashCall Futurity by three quarters of a length, sewing up the Eclipse Award for champion two year old colt. However, he does have a habit of easing up when he takes the lead, which could lead to trouble if a colt like Dublin was to coming rocketing from behind and catch him off guard. So Bob Baffert, Lookin at Lucky's trainer, has added blinkers for the first time. He believes that they will help his talented colt stay focused. He will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and will carry 119 pounds.
Now we move on to the number three horse, Royal Express. The son of Royal Academy comes off of a runner up performance in the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes behind Backtalk. He will likely set the pace tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by P. Compton.
This brings us to the number four horse, Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit has not raced since finishing a neck behind top Kentucky Derby hopeful Rule in last December's Delta Jackpot Stakes. He has never finished worse than second, and should really be in the mix tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by G. W. Corbett.
But of course, we must not forget Pleasant Storm. The late-running son of Pleasant Tap failed to put in a rally while finishing seventh in last month's Southwest Stakes, but prior to that, he finished second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Carrying 117 pounds, he will be ridden by J. K. Court. He doesn't appear to be as good as some of the other colts in this race, but if he's lucky, he could get a piece of the money.
Next up for discussion is the number six horse, Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been very consistent his entire career, winning three races, finishing second in two, and third in one from six starts. Winner of the Breeders' Futurity last fall, his best race probably cam in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where he ran an incredible race to be beaten only a length by Vale of York and Lookin at Lucky. Following that performance, he finished second to Lookin at Lucky after making a big move in the CashCall Futurity. Like the latter, he will be making his first start since then. I believe that he is ready to run the best race of his career. He will carry 119 pounds, and will be ridden for the first time by Robby Albarado.
Finally, we come to the number seven horse, Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex was my early Kentucky Derby pick after he won the Hopeful Stakes, but I eventually switched over to Buddy's Saint. After Buddy's Saint ran into disaster in the Fountain of Youth, Dublin once again reclaimed the top spot as my pick for the Triple Crown. I was very proud of him when he ran second in the Southwest Stakes, and I think that he's ready for an even better effort tomorrow. With the extra sixteenth of a mile, as well as the presence of more pace, he should be flying late. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
So here are my selections for the Rebel Stakes. . .
1 Dublin
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Noble's Promise
4 Cardiff Giant
5 Uh Oh Bango
6 Pleasant Storm
7 Royal Express
I think that the pace is going to be very fast tomorrow, and I think that Lookin at Lucky will be pushing it. With Noble's Promise, Royal Express, and Uh Oh Bango all interested in the lead, I think that the race is going to set up perfectly for Dublin. The latter already raced once this year, and should be ready for an excellent effort. Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise should be able to run great races, but I think that neither of them a primed to run their best. As for Cardiff Giant, he's already raced twice this year, and seems to be improving. Uh Oh Bango seems to be a fine colt, but I think that he will be cooked by the early pace. I could be wrong, but that's what I think. Pleasant Storm might be able to get a piece of the money, but I don't think he's quite good enough. Finally, I think that Royal Express will set the pace and tire in the drive. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although it's going to be fabulous watching all of the great races tomorrow, it's also unfortunate that I can't discuss all of them as thoroughly as I would like. So I will just quickly mention a few of the better races that shall be run this Saturday, beginning with the six furlong Cicada Stakes, held at Aqueduct.
The race is headlined by Bickersons, who is returning only two weeks after her fourth place finish in last month's Davona Dale Stakes. That race was perhaps a bit long for her, being one mile, and she should be able to rebound tomorrow. If anybody is going to beat her, I feel it will be either Female Drama, Liam's Dream, or Fuzzy Britches. It should be a good race.
Then of course, there is the Florida Oaks, run at Tampa Bay Downs. The big name here is She Be Wild, winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Eclipse Award for champion two year old filly. In her last start, she was soundly beaten by Bickersons in the seven furlong Forward Gal Stakes. Also in the race is Diva Delight, winner of the Gasparilla and Suncoast Stakes this year. Both of those wins came at this track.
It looks like a tough race to win, but I feel that She Be Wild is ready to rebound, and has an excellent shot at winning. Diva Delight should also be in the mix, as will Cuff Me and Awesome Vow. I respect Miss Afleet Alex and Imaginary Saint as well. I can't wait for the results.
Finally, there are the two races that I have been waiting for the most: The Santa Margarita Invitational and the New Orleans Ladies. In the latter, 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Zenyatta will make her return, and in the former, Rachel Alexandra will make hers. Both fillies will likely be sent off as the favorites, but both have questions to answer. Can Zenyatta give away eight to twelve pounds in her first start since the early November? And is Rachel Alexandra fit enough to defeat her four rivals, having not raced since early September? I think that both of them will win rather easily. Zenyatta has the harder race to win, but I feel that she is better prepared and will run one of the best races of her life. Rachel Alexandra probably won't win by twenty, but she should win with relative ease. Zardana will likely be in the mix, as will Clear Sailing. They are going to have to work for their wins, but they are two of the greatest fillies of all time. I have no doubts that both of them will find a way to win. Twenty-six days until the Apple Blossom. . . let's hope it works out.
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 06, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 5th, 2010
Well, nothing went as was expected last week. The Sham Stakes was canceled due to rain, the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes was a traffic disaster with a disqualification, and there was a disqualification in the Borderland Derby. But looking ahead, there are some great Triple Crown prep races this Saturday. So let's take a look at what happened last week, and what will happen this week.
To begin with, I'll recap the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, run at Turfway Park. The race was an absolute mess, with much bumping, swerving, and blocking. Watching the replay, it was nearly impossible to figure out who started it all, but under the wire first was Codoy, who was promptly disqualified and placed second. The heavy favorite, Kera's Kitten, came home last after encountering heavy traffic. It's hard to say whether or not he would have presented a winning rally had he not been bumped, as he was beaten by twenty lengths, but I think he could have at least gotten a piece of the money.
So, after the disqualification, the winner turned out to be Vow to Wager, who as the longest shot in the field at odds of 23-1. He was one length behind Codoy at the wire, but had been bumped by the latter at the quarter pole. Finishing third was In the Paint, who really made a good run to come from last with only five sixteenths to go. He was four and a quarter lengths in front of Slewzoom, who raced evenly through out. Following him was Fish, who also suffered from traffic, Pathoki, who was bumped and couldn't sustain his rally, and Lucky Chuck, who was the leader with five sixteenths to go before being bumped and running out of gas in the stretch.
So here are the final results. . .
1 Vow to Wager
2 Codoy
3 In the Paint
4 Slewzoom
5 Fish
6 Pathoki
7 Lucky Chuck
8 Kera's Kitten
. . . versus my selections.
1 Kera’s Kitten
2 Lucky Chuck
3 Vow to Wager
4 In the Paint
5 Codoy
6 Slewzoom
7 Pathoki
8 Fish
So I didn't do too well. It's impossible to say whether my picks would have done better had there been no traffic issues, but the fact is Vow to Wager got his first stakes win and should only keep improving. He will likely be one of the favorites for next month's Lane's End Stakes, should he start.
Moving on to the next race, there was the Borderland Derby, at Sunland Park. The narrowest of favorites was Storming Saint, with Tango Tango the second choice. The latter was coming off of a last place finish to Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month. In the end, it was Raise the Bridle who came under the wire first, but only a neck in front of Storming Saint. However, Storming Saint had been bumped hard by Raise the Bridle coming into stretch, and was impeded by him all the way to the wire. After a steward's inquiry, Storming Saint was declared the winner, with Raise the Bridle disqualified to second. It was nearly nine lengths back to the third place finisher, Amen Baby, who just barely held off Haitian Hero for the show. Guiltbyassociation finished fifth, with Tango Tango coming home sixth after failing to present the needed rally. In seventh was McKenna's Justice, with Chuchuluco in eigth. It was another fifty six and a half lengths back to longshot Nicky Boy, who was eased turning for home. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with him. So, Storming Saint is definitely one to watch for this month's Sunland Derby, and I would not be surprised if he made it to the Kentucky Derby.
The next race of note was a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Radiohead, and he ran to his odds, drawing off in the stretch to win by just over three lengths. Finishing second was last year's Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris, who just couldn't quite handle the winner. It was another half length back to Call Shot who raced third for much of the race and just couldn't keep with the first two finishers. Coming home fourth was General Maximus, who set the pace for three quarters of a mile before fading in the stretch. Still, he was only beaten one and a quarter lengths for second. It was another three lengths back to Quick Ride, and another three and a half back to Thomas got Even, who was last from the start. So although Radiohead is running out of time to make the Kentucky Derby, if he was to go for it in the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, or something similar, he might just make his presence felt, perhaps just enough to make it to the Kentucky Derby. It would be hard, but not impossible. We'll have to wait and see what happens.
Then of course, there was the Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Bickersons, who was coming off of a seven length win over last year's Champion 2yo Filly She Be Wild, who finished fifth. Also back from that race was the runner up Joanie's Catch. The second choice in the Davona Dale at odds of 2-1 was Amen Hallelujah, who had shipped out from California after winning the seven furlong Santa Ynez Stakes. The third choice was Sassy Image, winner of the Pocahontas and Golden Rod Stakes last fall at Churchill Downs. Comic Marvel and Mambo Fever completed the field.
Nobody ran like their odds said they would. First off, Bickersons ran the race I thought she would, setting the pace and tiring as they approached the quarter pole. She ended up fourth. Sassy Image, sent off at 3-1, race three wide into the first turn and faltered. She came home fifth. Mambo Fever, at odds of 15-1, rallied from last to grab third, with Joanie's Catch once again rallying for second at long odds, 27-1 to be exact. Comic Marvel was soundly beaten.
The impressive winner? Amen Hallelujah! With Julien Leparoux aboard, she proved that she may be a Kentucky Oaks contender, racing fourth after the first quarter of a mile before moving up to take the lead approaching the stretch. From there on, the race was hers, as she drew off to a six and a quarter length win.
It's hard to say why Sassy Image didn't run her race. I'm left wondering if there was something wrong with her. We'll find out more when she race again.
Now I shall quickly recap a few other little races that I discussed on my last "Triple Crown Countdown" post.
On that post, I mentioned that Gothics Peak would be running in a one mile maiden race on February 27th. I did not think that he would win, but for some reason, I had him in my Equibase Virtual Stable, so I thought I would mention it. He finished seventh, beaten nearly twenty lengths by the impressive winner Miner's Reserve, who won by five and a half lengths at odds of 3-1. His final time was 1:35 4/5, which was the same, actually slightly faster, than the time turned in by Radiohead one race prior. So Miner's Reserve may be one to watch.
Also on Gulfstream's Saturday card was another one mile maiden race. This one was won by favored Game On Dude, who broke in the air at the start, but moved up strongly through out to win by an easy three lengths over Our Dark Knight, who was my selection. Game On Dude appeared to win with something left, and I would say that he is one to watch.
Moving on, I mentioned that Richiegirlgonewild, upset winner of the Old Hat Stakes in January, would be competing in a five furlong turf allowance race. I wasn't sure what to think of this, but I was fairly certain that she wasn't going to win. Sent off as the fifth choice in the seven horse field, she failed to really threaten while racing four wide on the turn before giving way. The winner was the sixth choice Bernie the Maestro, who won at odds of only 5-1. It wasn't until after the race was run that I realized it was open to colts.
Of course, I must mention this next race, even if I didn't discuss it on my prior post. It was an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds. I felt confident that Fast Alex would come away the winner, and he did, passing favored Island Sould in the stretch to win by a length and a half. Both of them should be watched in their next starts, the winner especially. I believe that Fast Alex may be a serious Louisiana Derby contender. We'll see.
Then there was the six furlong Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The favorite was Comedero, and he ran like a favorite should, drawing off impressively in the stretch to win by four and a half after leading the entire way around. The final time was 1:10 1/5, which is not a bad time at all. It could have been a bit faster, but it was still an excellent effort. He doesn't exactly look like a Triple Crown horse, but perhaps we saw a future Breeders' Cup Sprint winner. Finishing second was Backwater Blues, who just barely hung on to the place. Finishing third was Activity Report. I don't think that either of them will become Triple Crown horses, but they're worth watching just the same.
Of course, I mustn’t forget to mention the seven furlong Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. I mentioned that Turbo Speed would be running, but I really didn't think that he would run that well. At the wire, it was favored Don't Blame the Cat who was in front by a length. Regal Warrior, at almost 48-1, rallied from far back to snatch second, a half length in front of third place finisher Colt T. It was another half length back to Turbo Speed in fourth, beaten only two lengths for all the money. Turf Melody scratched.
Finally, I must note that Vale of York, upset winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, made his first start since then in a race out in Dubai. He ended up fifth, behind his talented stablemate Mendip. I was vaguely aware that the latter existed, and the he might have some talent, but I didn't realize that it was anything like this. Mendip is without a doubt one to watch, for he may make a name for himself in the Triple Crown this year.
Now I shall move on to discussing what will happen this Saturday, beginning with the. . .
GOTHAM STAKES (gr. III, Aqueduct, Race 10, March 6th)
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
This is going to be a tough race to figure out, for there is a lot of class and ability in this race. The one-two-three finishers in last month's Whirlaway Stakes are back for a rematch, but several shippers are here to take a shot at earning a spot in next month's Wood Memorial.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Three Day Rush. He finished third in the Whirlaway Stakes after being taken extremely wide by the heavy favorite Eightyfiveinfifty. Considering that he was beaten by a very small amount, it's possible that going wide cost him the race. His workouts have been just a bit slow, but he should be able to run a good race tomorrow. He will carry 116 pounds.
Then there is the number two horse Yawanna Twist, who is undefeated in two starts. His workouts have been rather slow, and this will be his first start around two turns. He has several questions to answer, but he could surprise everyone and run a nice race. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
The number three horse is Nacho Man, who has not raced since last August. It's possible that he could run well off of such a long layoff, but it's more likely that he will not be ready for a top effort. He will also carry 116 pounds.
The number four horse is perhaps the most interesting of the ten entries, being a shipper from England. His name is Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since finishing fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. I believe that he is ready for a good effort under only 116 pounds. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Still, he only arrived in New York a few days ago, and it's possible that he may be a little tired from the long trip. We'll find out for sure tomorrow. If he likes dirt as much as he liked Santa Anita's synthetic surfaces, he could be very dangerous on the Triple Crown Trail, as he seems to have a very good late run.
The number five horse is the very unlucky I've Got A Fever, who has been running in the shadow of some very good horses. Under 116 pounds, it's possible that he could turn in a break through performance. It's possible that he could set the early pace.
The number six horse is Peppi Knows, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes by one length. Carrying the co-high weight of 120 pounds, it's possible that he is not ready for another winning run. But it's also possible that he has improved since his last race. He will be ridden by Richard Migliore.
The number seven horse is Shrimp Dancer, whom I know very little about. He will carry 116 pounds.
The number eight horse is Turf Melody, who will be carrying co-top weight of 120 pounds. The colt has shown that he has ability, but may not be quite as good as some of the other horses in this race. He could turn in a winning performance, but I think it's more likely that he won't.
The number nine horse is Afleet Again, runner up in the Whirlaway Stakes after closing a lot of ground. The son of Afleet Alex in not nominated to the Triple Crown, but that may change if he turns in a good effort tomorrow. Carrying only 116 pounds, I think that he's ready for an excellent performance.
Finally, there is the number ten horse, Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and looks ready to turn in an excellent run, based on his last race and his most recent workouts. With only 116 pounds on his back, he should run huge. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
So here are my selections for the race. . .
1 Afleet Again
2 Wow Wow Wow
3 Awesome Act
4 Three Day Rush
5 Peppi Knows
6 I've Got the Fever
7 Turf Melody
8 Nacho Friend
9 Shrimp Dancer
10 Yawanna Twist
I know that I'm taking a chance on Afleet Again, but I really think that he is capable of winning this race. Awesome Act seems to have a good late run, but I'm a little concerned about him not having a start on dirt, and I'm really concerned about him shipping to New York only a few days ago. I think that Wow Wow Wow is ready for a huge effort, but I think that Peppi Knows is not. Those are my final thoughts on this race.
Now it is time to move on to the Sham Stakes. This race was supposed to be run on the 27th of February, but was postponed due to rain. So I'll just repost what I posted last week and update it a bit.
SHAM STAKES (gr. III, Santa Anita Park, Race 7, March 6th)
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is perhaps the most interesting race of the weekend, as it drew several regarded colts who intend to prove that they are of Triple Crown caliber.
First off, there is The Program, a son of Harlan’s Holiday. The colt is coming off of a fine allowance victory over Indian Firewater, who in his next start finished second in the Turf Paradise Derby.
The Program, who is trained by Bob Baffert, should be able to adapt to any pace scenario. He will carry co-high weight of 118 pounds and will be ridden by Martin Garcia. He will start from post one.
But he won’t be alone, and the extremely promising Nextdoorneighbor figures to make him earn it. The son of Lido Palace comes into the Sham off of an unbelievable six furlong workout on January 15th. The colt was timed going the distance in 1:10 3/5 handily. He has already shown that he can go two turns, breaking his maiden on the third attempt going a mile and a sixteenth by four lengths in 1:43 4/5. I would not be surprise if he won the race. Still, he will have to break from post ten, and there is always the possibility that he could be caught wide going into the first turn. But perhaps he is talented enough to overcome it. He will carry 116 pounds, two less than The Program, and will be ridden by Mike Smith.
But Kettle River should also make his presence felt. The son of Congaree comes off of a win in a mile and a sixteenth allowance race in which he came from behind to score a three quarters of a length victory with The Program finishing third. He will carry the top weight of 118 pounds, along with The Program, and will be ridden by Brice Blanc. He has turned in some excellent workouts and should be coming late. He will break from post two.
Starting from post three will be Straightomidnight, who has already made eleven starts. He has only had one workout during the past sixty days, but it was a good one. He might be able to get a piece of the money.
In post four is Outlaw Man, who I can’t help but pull for. A short while back, I randomly selected from the 366 horses nominated to the Triple Crown. The plan was that I would follow the selected horse wherever he went. I figured that the odds of him turning up anywhere along the Triple Crown Trail were fairly small, so imagine my surprise when I learn that he has been entered in a grade III prep race at Santa Anita! I was thrilled, and I was even more thrilled when I realized that he might actually have a chance at winning today. He comes into the Sham off of a nose victory in a nine furlong turf race on January 27th. Maybe he will get a piece of the money, and perhaps he could even pull off the upset and win the race. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Garrett Gomez, who should be able to get the most out of him.
Moving on, there is Setsuko, who has been very consistent so far. The son of Pleasantly Perfect is trained by Richard Mandella and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. He has turned in some better than average workouts and may be able to get a piece of the money.
Finally, we come down to Wolf Tail, Viva Macho, El Mirage King, an Alphie’s Bet. All will carry 116 pounds, and all have had average workouts. Everyone one seems capable of finishing on the board, but I also feel that El Mirage King could be in the mix. He comes into the race off of a win in a turf race, he will be ridden by Tyler Baze, and his workouts have been very good, the last one in particular. I can see him running an excellent race, and maybe even winning.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Wolf Tail
8 Alphie’s Bet
9 Straightomidnight
10 Viva Macho
It was very tough deciding who to put on top, but I finally chose Nextdoorneighbor because his workouts have been amazing and he has show some great talent so far. The Program should run a nice race, and the finish should be very close. Kettle River has beaten The Program before, but I don't think this is his day. Outlaw Man should be making up some ground in the stretch, while El Mirage King should run a good race as well. As I am running out of time, I won't discuss the race any further, but my final thought is that I may have Setsuko too low, and that he is probably capable of winning the race. We'll see what happens.
Now for my update. I see that Viva Macho and Straightomidnight have decided not to run this time around. This allowed Marcello and Boulder Creek to get into the race. Also, the post positions have been adjusted. So this week, the post positions are as follow:
#1 Marcello
#2 The Program
#3 Outlaw Man
#4 El Mirage King
#5 Boulder Creek
#6 Kettle River
#7 Setsuko
#8 Wolf Tail
#9 Nextdoorneighbor
#10 Alphie's Bet
So along with that, my updated selections are as follow. . .
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Marcello
8 Wolf Tail
9 Boulder Creek
10 Alphie's Bet
Still. . . I have this feeling that Outlaw Man is capable of winning the race. I'm not sure why, but I just think that he may be a better horse than many think. I feel the same way about El Mirage King, although not as strongly. Every time I look at the entries, all I can think is "Outlaw Man has an excellent chance here. . ." but I'm basing this off of nothing. Did I read something somewhere about him? I don't remember. It reminds me of last November, when I had the feeling that there was going to be a huge upset in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. I was positive that Zensational was not going to win the race, but I wasn't really sure who was going to beat him. Finally, I went with Gayego, and although he did finish in front of Zensational, he came home fourth, beaten only a head for the win by three other longshots. The winner was 25-1 Dancing in Silks. So I had the right idea, but the wrong horse.
That said, I shall now move on to the. . .
SANTA ANITA OAKS (gr. I, Santa Anita Park, Race 8, March 6th)
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race is going to be fascinating, and extremely important. The favorite will likely be Blind Luck, and should she win nicely here tomorrow, she may be Santa Anita Derby bound. And if she was to win nicely there, perhaps she'll start in the Kentucky Derby. . .
. . . but that's getting a bit too far ahead. Let's take a look at the Santa Anita Oaks first and figure out what her chances of winning are, before we discuss the Triple Crown.
The Santa Anita Oaks, only the second grade I race for three year olds run this year, has drawn a tough field of eight, including Blind Luck. Her most worthy challenger will likely by Crisp, who disappointed in last month's Las Virgenes by running fourth behind Blind Luck. She will likely rebound off of the effort, but it's hard to say for sure. Crisp will carry 122 pounds, the same as every other filly in the race, and will be ridden by J. Rosario. She is one of the three entries trained by John Sadler in this race.
But we must not ignore Zilva. Zilva comes off of a poor finish behind Crisp in January's Santa Ysabel Stakes as the heavy favorite. Prior to that, she had finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. She was only 1 3/4 lengths behind Blind Luck. She may be able to turn in an excellent run, perhaps even upset the race.
Of course, no race at Santa Anita of any prestige is complete without Garrett Gomez riding someone. He will be on All Due Respect. I can't quite remember where I have heard her name before, but it's entirely possible that she could hit the board at long odds. And with Gomez riding, who knows?
Now I must discuss Blind Luck. Runner up for Champion 2yo Filly last year, she was the impressive winner of the Hollywood Starlet Stakes at the end of 2009. She kicked of her 2010 season by winning the Las Virgenes by a hard fought nose. Still, the fractions of the Las Virgenes were snail like, and I would not have been surprised if she had been unable to close. But she did. I imagine that the fractions tomorrow will be slightly faster, so Blind Luck should have a little easier time.
Sister Dawn, Riviera Chic, Warren's Jitterbug, and Cozi Rosie complete the field. Sister Dawn and Cozi Rosie are the other two John Sadler entries. I can't help but wonder if they are here to set up the race for Crisp. Perhaps they will help set the right fractions for her? It's hard to say. We'll find out tomorrow.
So here are my final selections. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 All Due Respect
4 Sister Dawn
5 Zilva
6 Warren's Jitterbug
7 Cozi Rosie
8 Riveria Chic
Of course, this is a really tough race to figure out. I think that Blind Luck will win the race fairly easily, with Crisp rebounding off of her poor effort in the Las Virgenes. I'm really not sure why Zilva was favored so heavily in the Santa Ysabel, as she didn't seem that much better to me. I don't think she is quite ready for this race here today. I believe that Garrett Gomez will ride an excellent race on All Due Respect, and Sister Dawn will run a nice one as well. My final thought is that I may be ignoring Zilva, as it's very possible that she could run a great race. We'll see what happens.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As I come to the end of this post, I must mention a few others races that may affect the outcome of the Triple Crown.
The first one is the $60,000 Pasadena Stakes, for three year olds. It is a one mile turf race at Santa Anita Park. It has actually drawn a very good field, including Macias, Make Music for Me, Straightomidnight, and Jairzihno. Macias is coming off of a nice win in the Baffle Stakes last month at this same track, while Make Music for Me is making his highly anticipated three year old debut. The way I see it, this race is wide open. Any one of the ten entries seem to have the ability to win. I find it interesting to see that Make Music for Me is making his first start back on the turf, but perhaps there were no other good synthetic races that fit his schedule.
The second race is the nine furlong grade III Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Bim Bam, who upset Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes last December, is expected the keep on winning. Asphalt, Dean's Kitten, Our Champion, and Cat Park have returned from the Hallandale to try him again, while newcomers Paddy O'Prado, Lethal Combination, Center Divider, and Mutiny will try and get a piece of it. I feel that Bim Bam has an excellent shot at winning, as he has been a very consistent colt. He should be able to finish in the top three without any trouble. However, if he should win the race, I don't think it will be by much. He doesn't seem to tower over the other entries. But like I said, he should run a great race.
The third race is the grade III Herecomesthebride Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It is identical to the Palm Beach Stakes, except that it is for fillies. I would go into a deep discussion, but I like Upperline, In the Rough, and Check the Label. This race probably won't turn out a Triple Crown contender, but who knows? Maybe one of them will win the Kentucky Oaks!
Now, I believe that I should mention this race next race, even if it is not a Triple Crown prep race. It is the Santa Anita Handicap, for four year olds and up. The most interesting horse in the race is St. Trinians, a five year old mare who will attempt to become the first filly or mare in history to win the Santa Anita Handicap. However, several good horses have turned out to challenge her, including Misremembered, Jeranimo, Delightful Kiss, Marsh Side, Mast Track, Loup Breton, and Neko Bay. That's how tough the field is. I feel that every horse in this race has a shot at winning, there is no horse here who appears completely outclassed. I've got to say that St. Trinians looks good, but it's going to be a tough race to win. If she can do it, I'll write up an entire post about the race, for it would be a race worth remembering.
Finally, it's worth noting that the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap is run tomorrow, even if it is not a Triple Crown prep. This should be a great race to watch, for the five year old mare Tucsan Evening will be trying males for the first time. Also in the race is another five year old mare in Proviso, who should be able to run a nice race. But there will be several old geldings here to try and stop them, including the seven year old warrior Awesome Gem, who is still searching for his first grade I win. Monzante may have a shot at the race as well, while Acclamation and Battle of Hastings should make their presence felt as well. Finally, there is Fluke, who is not a gelding, but a very good five year old. He upset the grade I Citation Handicap late last November, and will be dangerous if he repeats that effort today.
In conclusion, it should be a great day of races. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
To begin with, I'll recap the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, run at Turfway Park. The race was an absolute mess, with much bumping, swerving, and blocking. Watching the replay, it was nearly impossible to figure out who started it all, but under the wire first was Codoy, who was promptly disqualified and placed second. The heavy favorite, Kera's Kitten, came home last after encountering heavy traffic. It's hard to say whether or not he would have presented a winning rally had he not been bumped, as he was beaten by twenty lengths, but I think he could have at least gotten a piece of the money.
So, after the disqualification, the winner turned out to be Vow to Wager, who as the longest shot in the field at odds of 23-1. He was one length behind Codoy at the wire, but had been bumped by the latter at the quarter pole. Finishing third was In the Paint, who really made a good run to come from last with only five sixteenths to go. He was four and a quarter lengths in front of Slewzoom, who raced evenly through out. Following him was Fish, who also suffered from traffic, Pathoki, who was bumped and couldn't sustain his rally, and Lucky Chuck, who was the leader with five sixteenths to go before being bumped and running out of gas in the stretch.
So here are the final results. . .
1 Vow to Wager
2 Codoy
3 In the Paint
4 Slewzoom
5 Fish
6 Pathoki
7 Lucky Chuck
8 Kera's Kitten
. . . versus my selections.
1 Kera’s Kitten
2 Lucky Chuck
3 Vow to Wager
4 In the Paint
5 Codoy
6 Slewzoom
7 Pathoki
8 Fish
So I didn't do too well. It's impossible to say whether my picks would have done better had there been no traffic issues, but the fact is Vow to Wager got his first stakes win and should only keep improving. He will likely be one of the favorites for next month's Lane's End Stakes, should he start.
Moving on to the next race, there was the Borderland Derby, at Sunland Park. The narrowest of favorites was Storming Saint, with Tango Tango the second choice. The latter was coming off of a last place finish to Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes last month. In the end, it was Raise the Bridle who came under the wire first, but only a neck in front of Storming Saint. However, Storming Saint had been bumped hard by Raise the Bridle coming into stretch, and was impeded by him all the way to the wire. After a steward's inquiry, Storming Saint was declared the winner, with Raise the Bridle disqualified to second. It was nearly nine lengths back to the third place finisher, Amen Baby, who just barely held off Haitian Hero for the show. Guiltbyassociation finished fifth, with Tango Tango coming home sixth after failing to present the needed rally. In seventh was McKenna's Justice, with Chuchuluco in eigth. It was another fifty six and a half lengths back to longshot Nicky Boy, who was eased turning for home. Hopefully there is nothing wrong with him. So, Storming Saint is definitely one to watch for this month's Sunland Derby, and I would not be surprised if he made it to the Kentucky Derby.
The next race of note was a one mile allowance race at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Radiohead, and he ran to his odds, drawing off in the stretch to win by just over three lengths. Finishing second was last year's Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris, who just couldn't quite handle the winner. It was another half length back to Call Shot who raced third for much of the race and just couldn't keep with the first two finishers. Coming home fourth was General Maximus, who set the pace for three quarters of a mile before fading in the stretch. Still, he was only beaten one and a quarter lengths for second. It was another three lengths back to Quick Ride, and another three and a half back to Thomas got Even, who was last from the start. So although Radiohead is running out of time to make the Kentucky Derby, if he was to go for it in the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, or something similar, he might just make his presence felt, perhaps just enough to make it to the Kentucky Derby. It would be hard, but not impossible. We'll have to wait and see what happens.
Then of course, there was the Davona Dale Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The favorite was Bickersons, who was coming off of a seven length win over last year's Champion 2yo Filly She Be Wild, who finished fifth. Also back from that race was the runner up Joanie's Catch. The second choice in the Davona Dale at odds of 2-1 was Amen Hallelujah, who had shipped out from California after winning the seven furlong Santa Ynez Stakes. The third choice was Sassy Image, winner of the Pocahontas and Golden Rod Stakes last fall at Churchill Downs. Comic Marvel and Mambo Fever completed the field.
Nobody ran like their odds said they would. First off, Bickersons ran the race I thought she would, setting the pace and tiring as they approached the quarter pole. She ended up fourth. Sassy Image, sent off at 3-1, race three wide into the first turn and faltered. She came home fifth. Mambo Fever, at odds of 15-1, rallied from last to grab third, with Joanie's Catch once again rallying for second at long odds, 27-1 to be exact. Comic Marvel was soundly beaten.
The impressive winner? Amen Hallelujah! With Julien Leparoux aboard, she proved that she may be a Kentucky Oaks contender, racing fourth after the first quarter of a mile before moving up to take the lead approaching the stretch. From there on, the race was hers, as she drew off to a six and a quarter length win.
It's hard to say why Sassy Image didn't run her race. I'm left wondering if there was something wrong with her. We'll find out more when she race again.
Now I shall quickly recap a few other little races that I discussed on my last "Triple Crown Countdown" post.
On that post, I mentioned that Gothics Peak would be running in a one mile maiden race on February 27th. I did not think that he would win, but for some reason, I had him in my Equibase Virtual Stable, so I thought I would mention it. He finished seventh, beaten nearly twenty lengths by the impressive winner Miner's Reserve, who won by five and a half lengths at odds of 3-1. His final time was 1:35 4/5, which was the same, actually slightly faster, than the time turned in by Radiohead one race prior. So Miner's Reserve may be one to watch.
Also on Gulfstream's Saturday card was another one mile maiden race. This one was won by favored Game On Dude, who broke in the air at the start, but moved up strongly through out to win by an easy three lengths over Our Dark Knight, who was my selection. Game On Dude appeared to win with something left, and I would say that he is one to watch.
Moving on, I mentioned that Richiegirlgonewild, upset winner of the Old Hat Stakes in January, would be competing in a five furlong turf allowance race. I wasn't sure what to think of this, but I was fairly certain that she wasn't going to win. Sent off as the fifth choice in the seven horse field, she failed to really threaten while racing four wide on the turn before giving way. The winner was the sixth choice Bernie the Maestro, who won at odds of only 5-1. It wasn't until after the race was run that I realized it was open to colts.
Of course, I must mention this next race, even if I didn't discuss it on my prior post. It was an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds. I felt confident that Fast Alex would come away the winner, and he did, passing favored Island Sould in the stretch to win by a length and a half. Both of them should be watched in their next starts, the winner especially. I believe that Fast Alex may be a serious Louisiana Derby contender. We'll see.
Then there was the six furlong Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The favorite was Comedero, and he ran like a favorite should, drawing off impressively in the stretch to win by four and a half after leading the entire way around. The final time was 1:10 1/5, which is not a bad time at all. It could have been a bit faster, but it was still an excellent effort. He doesn't exactly look like a Triple Crown horse, but perhaps we saw a future Breeders' Cup Sprint winner. Finishing second was Backwater Blues, who just barely hung on to the place. Finishing third was Activity Report. I don't think that either of them will become Triple Crown horses, but they're worth watching just the same.
Of course, I mustn’t forget to mention the seven furlong Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. I mentioned that Turbo Speed would be running, but I really didn't think that he would run that well. At the wire, it was favored Don't Blame the Cat who was in front by a length. Regal Warrior, at almost 48-1, rallied from far back to snatch second, a half length in front of third place finisher Colt T. It was another half length back to Turbo Speed in fourth, beaten only two lengths for all the money. Turf Melody scratched.
Finally, I must note that Vale of York, upset winner of last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, made his first start since then in a race out in Dubai. He ended up fifth, behind his talented stablemate Mendip. I was vaguely aware that the latter existed, and the he might have some talent, but I didn't realize that it was anything like this. Mendip is without a doubt one to watch, for he may make a name for himself in the Triple Crown this year.
Now I shall move on to discussing what will happen this Saturday, beginning with the. . .
GOTHAM STAKES (gr. III, Aqueduct, Race 10, March 6th)
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
This is going to be a tough race to figure out, for there is a lot of class and ability in this race. The one-two-three finishers in last month's Whirlaway Stakes are back for a rematch, but several shippers are here to take a shot at earning a spot in next month's Wood Memorial.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Three Day Rush. He finished third in the Whirlaway Stakes after being taken extremely wide by the heavy favorite Eightyfiveinfifty. Considering that he was beaten by a very small amount, it's possible that going wide cost him the race. His workouts have been just a bit slow, but he should be able to run a good race tomorrow. He will carry 116 pounds.
Then there is the number two horse Yawanna Twist, who is undefeated in two starts. His workouts have been rather slow, and this will be his first start around two turns. He has several questions to answer, but he could surprise everyone and run a nice race. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Edgar Prado.
The number three horse is Nacho Man, who has not raced since last August. It's possible that he could run well off of such a long layoff, but it's more likely that he will not be ready for a top effort. He will also carry 116 pounds.
The number four horse is perhaps the most interesting of the ten entries, being a shipper from England. His name is Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since finishing fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. I believe that he is ready for a good effort under only 116 pounds. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Still, he only arrived in New York a few days ago, and it's possible that he may be a little tired from the long trip. We'll find out for sure tomorrow. If he likes dirt as much as he liked Santa Anita's synthetic surfaces, he could be very dangerous on the Triple Crown Trail, as he seems to have a very good late run.
The number five horse is the very unlucky I've Got A Fever, who has been running in the shadow of some very good horses. Under 116 pounds, it's possible that he could turn in a break through performance. It's possible that he could set the early pace.
The number six horse is Peppi Knows, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes by one length. Carrying the co-high weight of 120 pounds, it's possible that he is not ready for another winning run. But it's also possible that he has improved since his last race. He will be ridden by Richard Migliore.
The number seven horse is Shrimp Dancer, whom I know very little about. He will carry 116 pounds.
The number eight horse is Turf Melody, who will be carrying co-top weight of 120 pounds. The colt has shown that he has ability, but may not be quite as good as some of the other horses in this race. He could turn in a winning performance, but I think it's more likely that he won't.
The number nine horse is Afleet Again, runner up in the Whirlaway Stakes after closing a lot of ground. The son of Afleet Alex in not nominated to the Triple Crown, but that may change if he turns in a good effort tomorrow. Carrying only 116 pounds, I think that he's ready for an excellent performance.
Finally, there is the number ten horse, Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow is trained by D. Wayne Lukas and looks ready to turn in an excellent run, based on his last race and his most recent workouts. With only 116 pounds on his back, he should run huge. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani.
So here are my selections for the race. . .
1 Afleet Again
2 Wow Wow Wow
3 Awesome Act
4 Three Day Rush
5 Peppi Knows
6 I've Got the Fever
7 Turf Melody
8 Nacho Friend
9 Shrimp Dancer
10 Yawanna Twist
I know that I'm taking a chance on Afleet Again, but I really think that he is capable of winning this race. Awesome Act seems to have a good late run, but I'm a little concerned about him not having a start on dirt, and I'm really concerned about him shipping to New York only a few days ago. I think that Wow Wow Wow is ready for a huge effort, but I think that Peppi Knows is not. Those are my final thoughts on this race.
Now it is time to move on to the Sham Stakes. This race was supposed to be run on the 27th of February, but was postponed due to rain. So I'll just repost what I posted last week and update it a bit.
SHAM STAKES (gr. III, Santa Anita Park, Race 7, March 6th)
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is perhaps the most interesting race of the weekend, as it drew several regarded colts who intend to prove that they are of Triple Crown caliber.
First off, there is The Program, a son of Harlan’s Holiday. The colt is coming off of a fine allowance victory over Indian Firewater, who in his next start finished second in the Turf Paradise Derby.
The Program, who is trained by Bob Baffert, should be able to adapt to any pace scenario. He will carry co-high weight of 118 pounds and will be ridden by Martin Garcia. He will start from post one.
But he won’t be alone, and the extremely promising Nextdoorneighbor figures to make him earn it. The son of Lido Palace comes into the Sham off of an unbelievable six furlong workout on January 15th. The colt was timed going the distance in 1:10 3/5 handily. He has already shown that he can go two turns, breaking his maiden on the third attempt going a mile and a sixteenth by four lengths in 1:43 4/5. I would not be surprise if he won the race. Still, he will have to break from post ten, and there is always the possibility that he could be caught wide going into the first turn. But perhaps he is talented enough to overcome it. He will carry 116 pounds, two less than The Program, and will be ridden by Mike Smith.
But Kettle River should also make his presence felt. The son of Congaree comes off of a win in a mile and a sixteenth allowance race in which he came from behind to score a three quarters of a length victory with The Program finishing third. He will carry the top weight of 118 pounds, along with The Program, and will be ridden by Brice Blanc. He has turned in some excellent workouts and should be coming late. He will break from post two.
Starting from post three will be Straightomidnight, who has already made eleven starts. He has only had one workout during the past sixty days, but it was a good one. He might be able to get a piece of the money.
In post four is Outlaw Man, who I can’t help but pull for. A short while back, I randomly selected from the 366 horses nominated to the Triple Crown. The plan was that I would follow the selected horse wherever he went. I figured that the odds of him turning up anywhere along the Triple Crown Trail were fairly small, so imagine my surprise when I learn that he has been entered in a grade III prep race at Santa Anita! I was thrilled, and I was even more thrilled when I realized that he might actually have a chance at winning today. He comes into the Sham off of a nose victory in a nine furlong turf race on January 27th. Maybe he will get a piece of the money, and perhaps he could even pull off the upset and win the race. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Garrett Gomez, who should be able to get the most out of him.
Moving on, there is Setsuko, who has been very consistent so far. The son of Pleasantly Perfect is trained by Richard Mandella and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. He has turned in some better than average workouts and may be able to get a piece of the money.
Finally, we come down to Wolf Tail, Viva Macho, El Mirage King, an Alphie’s Bet. All will carry 116 pounds, and all have had average workouts. Everyone one seems capable of finishing on the board, but I also feel that El Mirage King could be in the mix. He comes into the race off of a win in a turf race, he will be ridden by Tyler Baze, and his workouts have been very good, the last one in particular. I can see him running an excellent race, and maybe even winning.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Wolf Tail
8 Alphie’s Bet
9 Straightomidnight
10 Viva Macho
It was very tough deciding who to put on top, but I finally chose Nextdoorneighbor because his workouts have been amazing and he has show some great talent so far. The Program should run a nice race, and the finish should be very close. Kettle River has beaten The Program before, but I don't think this is his day. Outlaw Man should be making up some ground in the stretch, while El Mirage King should run a good race as well. As I am running out of time, I won't discuss the race any further, but my final thought is that I may have Setsuko too low, and that he is probably capable of winning the race. We'll see what happens.
Now for my update. I see that Viva Macho and Straightomidnight have decided not to run this time around. This allowed Marcello and Boulder Creek to get into the race. Also, the post positions have been adjusted. So this week, the post positions are as follow:
#1 Marcello
#2 The Program
#3 Outlaw Man
#4 El Mirage King
#5 Boulder Creek
#6 Kettle River
#7 Setsuko
#8 Wolf Tail
#9 Nextdoorneighbor
#10 Alphie's Bet
So along with that, my updated selections are as follow. . .
1 Nextdoorneighbor
2 The Program
3 Kettle River
4 Outlaw Man
5 El Mirage King
6 Setsuko
7 Marcello
8 Wolf Tail
9 Boulder Creek
10 Alphie's Bet
Still. . . I have this feeling that Outlaw Man is capable of winning the race. I'm not sure why, but I just think that he may be a better horse than many think. I feel the same way about El Mirage King, although not as strongly. Every time I look at the entries, all I can think is "Outlaw Man has an excellent chance here. . ." but I'm basing this off of nothing. Did I read something somewhere about him? I don't remember. It reminds me of last November, when I had the feeling that there was going to be a huge upset in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. I was positive that Zensational was not going to win the race, but I wasn't really sure who was going to beat him. Finally, I went with Gayego, and although he did finish in front of Zensational, he came home fourth, beaten only a head for the win by three other longshots. The winner was 25-1 Dancing in Silks. So I had the right idea, but the wrong horse.
That said, I shall now move on to the. . .
SANTA ANITA OAKS (gr. I, Santa Anita Park, Race 8, March 6th)
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race is going to be fascinating, and extremely important. The favorite will likely be Blind Luck, and should she win nicely here tomorrow, she may be Santa Anita Derby bound. And if she was to win nicely there, perhaps she'll start in the Kentucky Derby. . .
. . . but that's getting a bit too far ahead. Let's take a look at the Santa Anita Oaks first and figure out what her chances of winning are, before we discuss the Triple Crown.
The Santa Anita Oaks, only the second grade I race for three year olds run this year, has drawn a tough field of eight, including Blind Luck. Her most worthy challenger will likely by Crisp, who disappointed in last month's Las Virgenes by running fourth behind Blind Luck. She will likely rebound off of the effort, but it's hard to say for sure. Crisp will carry 122 pounds, the same as every other filly in the race, and will be ridden by J. Rosario. She is one of the three entries trained by John Sadler in this race.
But we must not ignore Zilva. Zilva comes off of a poor finish behind Crisp in January's Santa Ysabel Stakes as the heavy favorite. Prior to that, she had finished seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths. She was only 1 3/4 lengths behind Blind Luck. She may be able to turn in an excellent run, perhaps even upset the race.
Of course, no race at Santa Anita of any prestige is complete without Garrett Gomez riding someone. He will be on All Due Respect. I can't quite remember where I have heard her name before, but it's entirely possible that she could hit the board at long odds. And with Gomez riding, who knows?
Now I must discuss Blind Luck. Runner up for Champion 2yo Filly last year, she was the impressive winner of the Hollywood Starlet Stakes at the end of 2009. She kicked of her 2010 season by winning the Las Virgenes by a hard fought nose. Still, the fractions of the Las Virgenes were snail like, and I would not have been surprised if she had been unable to close. But she did. I imagine that the fractions tomorrow will be slightly faster, so Blind Luck should have a little easier time.
Sister Dawn, Riviera Chic, Warren's Jitterbug, and Cozi Rosie complete the field. Sister Dawn and Cozi Rosie are the other two John Sadler entries. I can't help but wonder if they are here to set up the race for Crisp. Perhaps they will help set the right fractions for her? It's hard to say. We'll find out tomorrow.
So here are my final selections. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 All Due Respect
4 Sister Dawn
5 Zilva
6 Warren's Jitterbug
7 Cozi Rosie
8 Riveria Chic
Of course, this is a really tough race to figure out. I think that Blind Luck will win the race fairly easily, with Crisp rebounding off of her poor effort in the Las Virgenes. I'm really not sure why Zilva was favored so heavily in the Santa Ysabel, as she didn't seem that much better to me. I don't think she is quite ready for this race here today. I believe that Garrett Gomez will ride an excellent race on All Due Respect, and Sister Dawn will run a nice one as well. My final thought is that I may be ignoring Zilva, as it's very possible that she could run a great race. We'll see what happens.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As I come to the end of this post, I must mention a few others races that may affect the outcome of the Triple Crown.
The first one is the $60,000 Pasadena Stakes, for three year olds. It is a one mile turf race at Santa Anita Park. It has actually drawn a very good field, including Macias, Make Music for Me, Straightomidnight, and Jairzihno. Macias is coming off of a nice win in the Baffle Stakes last month at this same track, while Make Music for Me is making his highly anticipated three year old debut. The way I see it, this race is wide open. Any one of the ten entries seem to have the ability to win. I find it interesting to see that Make Music for Me is making his first start back on the turf, but perhaps there were no other good synthetic races that fit his schedule.
The second race is the nine furlong grade III Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Bim Bam, who upset Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes last December, is expected the keep on winning. Asphalt, Dean's Kitten, Our Champion, and Cat Park have returned from the Hallandale to try him again, while newcomers Paddy O'Prado, Lethal Combination, Center Divider, and Mutiny will try and get a piece of it. I feel that Bim Bam has an excellent shot at winning, as he has been a very consistent colt. He should be able to finish in the top three without any trouble. However, if he should win the race, I don't think it will be by much. He doesn't seem to tower over the other entries. But like I said, he should run a great race.
The third race is the grade III Herecomesthebride Stakes at Gulfstream Park. It is identical to the Palm Beach Stakes, except that it is for fillies. I would go into a deep discussion, but I like Upperline, In the Rough, and Check the Label. This race probably won't turn out a Triple Crown contender, but who knows? Maybe one of them will win the Kentucky Oaks!
Now, I believe that I should mention this race next race, even if it is not a Triple Crown prep race. It is the Santa Anita Handicap, for four year olds and up. The most interesting horse in the race is St. Trinians, a five year old mare who will attempt to become the first filly or mare in history to win the Santa Anita Handicap. However, several good horses have turned out to challenge her, including Misremembered, Jeranimo, Delightful Kiss, Marsh Side, Mast Track, Loup Breton, and Neko Bay. That's how tough the field is. I feel that every horse in this race has a shot at winning, there is no horse here who appears completely outclassed. I've got to say that St. Trinians looks good, but it's going to be a tough race to win. If she can do it, I'll write up an entire post about the race, for it would be a race worth remembering.
Finally, it's worth noting that the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap is run tomorrow, even if it is not a Triple Crown prep. This should be a great race to watch, for the five year old mare Tucsan Evening will be trying males for the first time. Also in the race is another five year old mare in Proviso, who should be able to run a nice race. But there will be several old geldings here to try and stop them, including the seven year old warrior Awesome Gem, who is still searching for his first grade I win. Monzante may have a shot at the race as well, while Acclamation and Battle of Hastings should make their presence felt as well. Finally, there is Fluke, who is not a gelding, but a very good five year old. He upset the grade I Citation Handicap late last November, and will be dangerous if he repeats that effort today.
In conclusion, it should be a great day of races. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)