Only a couple of days left before the Kentucky Derby and the Oaks. A lot of stuff is going to be happening between now and then. And unfortunately, a lot of bad things happened during the last couple of days.
To begin, I will mention that Eskendereya and Rule are out of the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya, the Derby favorite, came down with a filling in his left front leg and had to scratch. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is very disappointed.
And just when Todd Pletcher needed some good news, he got the opposite. Rule was having training difficulties at Churchill Downs, and Todd and the owners of Rule decided not to run him.
But on the other hand, Todd Pletcher and the owners of top class filly Devil May Care have announced that they intend to run her in the Kentucky Derby. She'll do her best to fill the hole left by Eskendereya and Rule, but that is a pretty big hole to fill. Fortunately, she seems to have great talent and should be able to run a great race on Saturday.
Of course, no matter how terrible things seem, something good always comes from them. Even though scratching Eskendereya and Rule doesn't help Pletcher, it does help Nick Zito, who will now be able to run the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial runner up Jackson Bend in the Derby. Jackson Bend was sitting 21st on the graded earnings list before it was announced that Devil May Care might run, dropping him down to the 22nd spot. But the defections of Eskendereya and Rule moved him into the 20th spot, getting him into the Derby. This is good news in many ways, for he fully deserves to run in the Derby and has a good shot at hitting the board.
But now let's move on to some slightly more pleasant subjects, such as the results from last Saturday. We'll begin with the grade III The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes, of which there were two scratches, Privilaged and Soaring Empire.
The one mile race at Churchill Downs looked as though it might turn out a Derby contender for once. The connections of two of the runners, Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince, had announced that should their colt win the Derby Trial, they would send him on to the Kentucky Derby.
But as it turned out, it didn't matter. Neither of the colts won the Derby Trial, as it was Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel who came up the rail to win the Derby Trial by an easy two and three quarter lengths. Aikenite, who is actually rich enough to run in the Derby if his connections felt he should, rallied for second but could not challenge the winner. Pleasant Prince came late for third. Eightfiveinafifty, the heavy favorite, set the pace but had nothing left when challenged by Hurricane Ike after three quarters of a mile. The final time was 1:36 1/5. It was Calvin Borel's fifth win of the day from eight mounts. Not bad.
So here are the results. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
4 Eightyfiveinafifty
5 Game On Dude
6 Wow Wow Wow
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
. . . versus my selections.
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
5 Miner's Reserve
6 Game On Dude
7 Wow Wow Wow
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
Except for Eightfiveinafifty, I was pretty close. I can't begin to describe how excited I was when Hurricane Ike won, because I had so nearly gone with Eightyfiveinafifty but decided that Hurricane Ike was the best horse under those conditions. But I was even more excited when the results of the Withers Stakes were in.
I gave the Withers a lot of thought. I knew that D' Funnybone was the heavy and deserving favorite, but I felt that at this distance he was vulnerable. So I started looking for a longshot to be my pick. I thought a long time about using Ibboyee, but I knew that he might have a few distance issues as well. And he was going to be well bet. I felt pretty sure that a longshot was going to win.
I thought about picking Castaneda. He seemed to have some decent speed, and maybe he could shake of D' Funnybone and win the race easily. I doubted it.
I thought about picking Most Happy Fella. The colt had set the pace in the Wood Memorial before fading to finish last. Fortunately, I didn't pick him. He ended up scratching.
I thought about picking Spangled Star. He would be the longshot, but he would be carrying six pounds less than D' Funnybone. But I decided not to pick him for various reasons.
So that left me with Afleet Again. I have followed the colt since before the Whirlaway Stakes and he was actually my pick for the Gotham, where he finished last of ten. But I felt with only 116 pounds on his back in the Withers, he would have a shot, even with his 20-1 morning line odds.
Afleet Again won the Withers at 25-1 going away.
I was so pleased that he had won that I couldn't calm down for the rest of the evening. All I could think was, "I picked the winners of the Derby Trial AND the Withers!"
Of course, Afleet Again had a perfect pace scenario. Breaking alertly, he raced up to sit just off the leader Castaneda through an opening quarter mile fraction of :21 3/5. D' Funnybone, meanwhile, was in trouble. He had broken a bit slowly and got into trouble within the first quarter of a mile. He had to steady sharply and drop back a bit. Then he made his run on the outside to join Castaneda through fractions of :43 4/5 and 1:07 2/5. Afleet Again, meanwhile, had dropped back a bit and was four lengths behind with only a quarter of a mile to go. That was when he made his move.
Swinging five wide, he made a bold move after the leaders. D' Funnybone and Castaneda, after setting the blazing fractions, could find no more. In the mean time, Ibboyee had opened up a clear lead as they came down to the final eighth. But Afleet Again proved to much for him, and drew off to a length and a half victory, getting the mile in 1:34 flat. Ibboyee held second, four and a quarter lengths in front of Spangled Star, who made a late run to pass the tiring pace setters. D' Funnybone ended up fourth, ten and three quarter lengths in front of Castaneda.
So anyway, congratulations to Afleet Again and his connections! I will remember this race fondly for many years.
Then there was an allowance race at Lone Star Park. I don't think that it is going to turn out a Triple Crown race winner, but it's still worth noting.
The favorite was Random Move, at odds of 1.90-1. Guilty Plea was also well bet at 3-1, and Productive Envoy was 5-1. My pick was Productive Envoy.
The race was fairly uneventful, although there was a little bit of bumping in the early going. Two Ex, an 8-1 shot, set the pace, followed closely by Guilty Plea. Productive Envoy sat right behind them while Random Move was far back.
On the far turn, Two Ex gave way, leaving Guilty Plea the leader. But Productive Envoy was moving and took the lead in the stretch. He managed to hold off 15-1 Shoot it's War for the win, with Guilty Plea back in third, beaten less than two lengths. Random Move rallied for fourth.
Then there was the six furlong Land of Lincoln Stakes at Hawthorne. For three year old Texas breds, it drew a field of nine highlighted by Royal Express. The second choice was Cap'n Nick, followed by Big Looie and Devient Behavior. I liked Windy City Cat.
Except for some bumping at the start, the race was pretty controlled. Royal Express broke fastest and set the pace for about half the race before being overtaken by Big Looie. Big Looie then pulled away to lead by a length and a half at the eighth pole, but had to dig in to hold off a fast closing 16-1 Seguro. 20-1 A J's Mountain finished third, with Star of Paradise fourth. Then came Royal Express and Windy City Cat, the latter whom completely failed to menace.
Another race of note was the mile and a sixteenth Melair Stakes at Hollywood Park. For three year old fillies, the heavy favorite was La Nez. She was also my pick. Camille C was sent off as the 3-1 second choice.
As it turned out, La Nez never really threatened. She raced fifth for much of the race before making an outside bid to draw within a half length of Camille C, who had led from the start. But she was unable to sustain her rally, and ended up third, beaten nine and three quarter lengths by the winner. Salty Fries at 5-1 rallied for second, with Costanta fourth.
Finally, there was the mile and a sixteenth Island Whirl Florida Thoroughbred Charities Stakes for three year olds and upward. The favorite was Bim Bam, a three year old colt who had defeated Triple Crown prospect Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes when the latter was making his 2010 debut. In his next start, however, he finished fifth behind eventual Blue Grass Stakes runner up Paddy O'Prado in the grade III Palm Beach Stakes. The second choice at 3-1 was Roman Tiger, a five year old gelded son of Tiger Ridge. He was also my pick.
Although Bim Bam came very close to winning another race, he just couldn't quite get it done. Racing fourth for the first half mile. he began to inch up on the leaders and made a good bid for the lead, but Roman Tiger blew past him on his way to a two and three quarter length victory. Bim Bam held second by a neck over Sincero.
And now, I am almost done. But there is still one more thing left to do. I must reveal the mystery horse.
THE MYSTERY HORSE REVEALED
I know I said that I was going to announced this colts identity on Thursday, but now that the field has been drawn, I feel now is as good a time as any. So, with a drumroll, I shall announce the mystery colt. . .
Drumroll . . .
Anxiously awaiting . . .
Opening the envelope . . .
And the mystery colt is . . .
HOMEBOYKRIS!
I know that many of you will be shocked into silence by this news, but I truly think that Homeboykris has a fighting chance. Yes, he drew gate 19, and yes he has done absolutely nothing of note since winning the Champagne Stakes last October, but I feel that he is sitting on the race of his life and could spoil a lot of superfectas. Here are five reasons to like him:
1. He will be ridden by top jockey Ramon Dominguez.
2. He is trained by Rick Dutrow, who has won the Derby before with Big Brown.
3. He has not raced since February 27th. He is certainly going to be fresh.
4. He is training well at Churchill Downs
5. He probably won't run into any traffic, as he will be breaking from gate 19.
Now, are you convinced that Homeboykris is going to win the Kentucky Derby? Okay, I didn't give any great reasons to put lots of money on him, but the fact is I just have this feeling that he is not a throw out horse. I won't be throwing him out of the mix, and will be considering him a legitimate contender. Hey, I like him better than Discreetly Mine!
And that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks, and on Oaks Day I will post my selections for the Kentucky Derby. I will also briefly discuss Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne Stakes as well as the rest of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks undercards. And don't forget that on Derby Day I will be live on my blog updating as post time draws nearer. I'll be discussing how they look in the post parade, if anybody is acting up, and how I feel overall about everything.
Two days left until Derby Day. . . this is so much fun!
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Eightyfiveinafifty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Eightyfiveinafifty. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Friday, April 23, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 23rd, 2010
". . . they come down the homestretch and it's Lookin at Lucky with a narrow lead! Super Saver battles on his inside, and Dublin is launching a furious rally from the back of the pack! Dublin is grinding past horses! Lookin at Lucky leads at the eighth pole! Super Saver refuses to give way! Calvin Borel is imploring him to go on! But here comes Dublin! Down to the final sixteenth! Lookin at Lucky has unwavering courage! Super Saver is a stubborn foe! And Dublin is cutting them both down with every stride! Here's the wire! . . . Dublin gets up to win it by a neck! Welcome back Wayne Lukas!"
Oh wait a minute . . . that's next Saturday. Or at least I hope that's what happens next Saturday.
Getting serious, there is only one week left before the Kentucky Derby. And amazingly, there is still one final prep. And that is the Derby Trial, which has been reduced to nothing over the past several years, but with the severe earnings problem many top horses are facing, it is once again a prime trial for the Derby. If you can believe it, two of the colts running may end up in the Derby if they win. So let's take a look at the tough ten horse field and see what we can figure out.
DERBY TRIAL (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, April 24th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
To begin with, there is the number one horse Game On Dude. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since running seventh in the Florida Derby behind Ice Box five weeks ago. He has been fairly consistent, but proved that he was no match for the best horses in Florida. Still, he will be ridden by Robby Albarado and will have to carry only 117 pounds, which is four less than the high weight Eightyfiveinafifty. He might be in the mix, but may not be quite as good as some of the others that are running.
This brings us to the number two horse Soaring Empire. Another colt making his first start back since the Florida Derby, the son of Empire Maker did not get a great trip in that race, and may step up and run a big one tomorrow. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro and will carry 117 pounds.
Then there is the number three horse Privilaged. The son of Southern Image has only made one start this year, and that was in the grade II Swale Stakes on the undercard of the Florida Derby. He actually ran a very good race that day, racing three wide while chasing the pace. He ended up third, beaten three and a half lengths. I actually like him pretty well here, and I think that he has the ability to step up and run the race of his life. He will be ridden by R. Maragh and will carry 117 pounds.
Now we come to the four horse Pleasant Prince. The 4-1 morning line second choice has been racing rather frequently. Five weeks ago he ran second in the Florida Derby. Two weeks ago he ran seventh in the Blue Grass, but it was obvious that he hated Keeneland's Polytrack. Now he intends to run in the in the Derby Trial, and should he win, the Kentucky Derby. That would be four races in six weeks. And his seventh of the year. If he can handle it, he is a very rare horse. Anyway, the son of Indy King will be carrying 117 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by regular rider Julien Leparoux, who won the Eclipse award last year for outstanding jockey.
Next up is the number five horse Hurricane Ike. The son of Graeme Hall has ran an excellent race last time out in his first start on dirt, running second to Eightfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes while earning the highest Beyer speed figure of his life. He has yet to be proven beyond seven furlongs, as in his only start beyond that distance he ran eleventh in the Breeders' Futurity, but that was many months ago, and it was at Keeneland. Tomorrow, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel, which is always a good thing.
But we mustn’t ignore the six horse Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft broke his maiden impressively earlier this year, but ran a horrible race in the Florida Derby, being beaten nearly thirty-five lengths while having no obvious excuse. But I am willing to excuse his poor performance there and assume that he is going to bounce back. He will carry 117 pounds tomorrow, five pounds less than he has ever carried in his life, and will be ridden for the first time by Jose Lezcano.
This brings us to the number seven horse Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow will be making his tenth lifetime start at the sixth different track. He seems to be one of those colts who runs either really well or really poorly. Looking at his workouts, I would say that he has taken to Churchill Downs rather well, and might be ready to run his best race tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who rode the colt to his best victory, an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park.
Then there is the number eight horse Hear Ye Hear Ye. You certainly can't knock the son of Hear No Evil's soundness, as the Derby Trial will be his fourteenth start and his second of the month. If you can believe it, he has run in at least one race every month since last May, excluding the month of January. He has won twice, but is a state-restricted stakes winner. He has finished in the top three only three times, but has finished fourth five times. I don't think he will be a very big contender tomorrow, but with Corey Nakatani on his back, you never know. He will carry 117 pounds.
Coming down to the final two entries, we find Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True ran the worst race of his career in his last start, the Blue Grass Stakes. He has no obvious reason, as he had run well over Keeneland's Polytrack before, and we can only hope that he will return to his prior racing form. However, he has run his best races while coming from off the pace, and he might have been just a tad too close to the lead in the Blue Grass. Hopefully, his jockey Garrett Gomez will take him back tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds.
Finally, we come to the ten horse Eightyfiveinafifty. This colt is the solid morning line favorite at 8-5, and will probably be lower by post time, but he seems to be a bit wild. Two starts back he failed to turn going into the first turn at Aqueduct in the mile and a sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes. He ended up with a broken bit and a cut which required stitches. And in his last start, the Bay Shore Stakes, he won easily, but was not paying much attention to the race. For the first fifty yards or so, he ran with his head turned towards the infield and never seems completely comfortable. Another question that I ask is can he go a mile? The answer is perhaps. We'll find out tomorrow. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and will carry top weight of 121 pounds.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Pleasant Prince
3 Aikenite
5 Privilaged
6 Soaring Empire
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Game On Dude
9 Wow Wow Wow
10 Hear Ye Hear Ye
It was a tough decision, but I guess I'm not going to pick a colt who might not finish the race. I know that he is probably past not making turns, but he still seems to be a very erratic horse and somewhat unpredictable. Still, he appears to be a step or two above every other horse in this race. My pick is Hurricane Ike, who got within two and a half lengths of Eightyfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes. With an extra furlong, who knows what might happen? Wow Wow Wow is another horse I like, but I can't see him lasting the mile distance with the pace that is going to be run. There is a lot of speed in this race. As for third, I couldn't make up my mind. Pleasant Prince is probably better than Aikenite, but Aikenite hasn't raced so frequently this year and may have a bit more left in the end. Pleasant Prince will probably be coming late, but I can't see him getting up in time. If Aikenite sticks close to the pace, he will probably fade. If he comes from behind, me might just get there. As for Miner's Reserve and Soaring Empire, both of them have a shot at winning, but I just can't see them doing it. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, as there is only one week left before the Derby, there aren’t exactly a ton of races remaining. As I glance over my National Stakes Conditions booklet, I see only a few stakes races worth mentioning. I'll begin with the Withers Stakes and Aqueduct.
The grade III Withers Stakes used to be a very prestigious race. In recent years, however, it has been reduced to nothing more than a prep for the Preakness. Still, the one mile race has attracted a quality field of three year olds this year, although as far as I know none of them are aiming for the Triple Crown. But you never know what might happen . . .
I'm only going to briefly describe the race, but I'll try to be as thorough as possible. The heavy favorite will likely be D' Funnybone, who will be trying for his fifth graded stakes win. He is undefeated this year, with dual seven furlong grade II victories, but the question is can he go a mile? There is a fair amount of speed in this race, most of it coming from Most Happy Fella and Castaneda. Interestingly, Most Happy Fella is the number one horse, D' Funnybone the number two horse, Castaneda the number three. There could be an interesting speed dual early. If that was to be the case, than Afleet Again and Ibboyee might come running late. I would not be surprised at all if D' Funnybone is upset. Finally, there is the number five horse Spangled Star. Nobody seems to think that he has a chance, but you never know. He only has to carry 116 pounds, the same as Most Happy Fella, and he might just have a shot.
RACE RESULTS
First off, I shall recap the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The mile and a sixteenth event drew a tough field of twelve, and Connemara was made the slight favorite over Uptowncharlybrown. Bushwhacked and Krypton were also well liked.
The way I saw it, there was just enough speed that the winner would come from behind. I just couldn't see Krypton or Exhi wiring the race. I felt that Call Shot would sit just off the pace and win by a length or so, with Uptowncharlybrown rallying late for second and Connemara getting up for third.
Exhi went wire-to-wire. Connemara finished tenth and Call Shot eleventh.
It just goes to show that I should stay away from Keeneland. I do okay handicapping the little races there, but I always falter when it comes to the stakes races. Exhi, sent off at nearly 20-1, set pretty good fractions from the start and held off Bushwhacked and Uptowncharlybrown for the win. (But I did correctly predict Chief Counsel to come in fourth.)
So here are the final results. . .
1 Exhi
2 Bushwhacked
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Chief Counsel
5 Prince Will I Am
6 Kettle River
7 Distorted Dave
8 Heavenville
9 Krypton
10 Connemara
11 Call Shot
12 Lonesome Street
. . . versus my selections.
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
I didn't do very well, but I didn't do all that terrible. (Okay, I did rotten. I had the winner to finish sixth and the runner up to finish last. The only horses I was right about were Chief Counsel and Distorted Dave!)
But I'm satisfied with the results. Although none of the runners will be making it to the Derby, it was still a good prep, and one of the runners might end up in either the Preakness or the Belmont.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin with, there was the six furlong KHEY Y-96 Sprint Stakes at Sunland Park. A field of nine was drawn, the favorite being Malibu Mystic. My personal pick was Haitian Hero, and despite the fact that his morning line odds were something like 9-2, he was sent off at 22-1.
In the early going, Malibu Mystic led, with El Confidential, a 25-1 shot, and Haitian Hero pressing him on the outside. But as they started their drives, Malibu Mystic gave way, leaving Haitian Hero and El Confidential to battle it out. Under the wire it was Haitian Hero, El Confidential second. Timbavati made a lot of ground to finish third. Malibu Mystic finished eighth, beaten seventeen lengths.
Then there was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. For three year olds, my pick was Center Divider, and he was sent off as the 3-2 favorite. Also well liked was Mister Marti Gras.
In the early going, Justamatteroftime set the pace, followed closely by Patti's Kitten and Down With Dixie. Center Divider sat fourth for much of the race.
However, around the final turn, Center Divider began his run. Moving strongly while four wide, he took the lead at the eighth pole and drew off to win by four. Patti's Kitten, at 10-1, finished second, with Looks Purrrfect third. Mister Marti Gras was fourth.
And finally, there was a mile and a sixteenth allowance race on the turf at Keeneland. For three year old fillies, the race drew six runners. The narrowest of favorites was Lisa's Kitten, with Joharmony the second choice. Lucky Lass and Laura Babe were also well bet.
As it turned out, the order of finish was nearly identical to the odds they were sent off at. Joharmany, my pick, finished first by a neck, with Lisa's Kitten second, three quarters of a length in front of Lucky Lass. It was another six back to Laura Babe, with Full Storm and Wildcat Dreamer trailing. So the winner was 2-1, the runner up was 2-1, the third place finisher was 3-1, the fourth place finisher 4-1, the fifth place finisher 11-1, and the trailer 19-1. The bettors at Keeneland were almost completely right. If Lisa's Kitten had gotten up in time, they would have been completely right. Wow.
UNDERCOVER AT THE DOWNS
With the Kentucky Derby coming closer every minute, "Undercover at the Downs" is dedicated to helping sort out all the stuff that is going on at Churchill Downs, including workouts, possible equipment changes, and other news. To begin, here are some contenders who have worked out over the past week or so.
WORKOUTS
APRIL 15th
Hurricane Ike breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Jackson Bend breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Privilaged breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Wow Wow Wow breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5.
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5.
APRIL 16th --- Churchill Downs
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 flat.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :50 flat.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Seeking the Title breezed four furlongs in :50 1/5.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5.
Stay Put breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Training
Dean's Kitten breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the co-fastest of ten workouts at that distance.
Kera's Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Downs
Aspire breezed three furlongs in :36 flat, the co-fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Naiche breezed three furlongs in :37 3/5 on a good track.
Cool Bullet breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Miner's Reserve breezed four furlongs in :46 flat, the fastest of fifty-four workouts at that distance.
Fist of Rage breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5 on a good track.
Sheer Beauty breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a good track.
Sidney's Candy breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5.
Champagne d'Oro breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat.
Crisp breezed six furlongs in 1:15 1/5.
Elusive Jozi breezed six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 on a good track, the fastest of eight workouts at that distance.
APRIL 18th --- Churchill Downs
Bravo Whiskey breezed four furlongs in :50 3/5.
Don't Put It Back breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5.
Raging Wit breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:04 flat.
Raphael Alexandro breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat. (Not a contender, but a cute name.)
Safe Trip breezed five furlongs in :59 flat, the fastest of thirty-two workouts at that distance.
Thiskyhasnolimit breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Vow to Wager breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
APRIL 19th --- Churchill Downs
Decelerator breezed four furlongs in :47 flat.
Guru breezed four furlongs in :51 flat.
Necassary Evil breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5.
Bell's Shoes breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Dublin breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5, the fastest of forty-four workouts at that distance.
Game On Dude breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Northern Giant breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5.
Crider breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5.
Hot Dixie Chick breezed six furlongs in 1:13 3/5.
APRIL 20th --- Churchill Downs
Beautician breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5.
Diva Delite breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Hurrican Ike breezed five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
Line of David breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Noble's Promise breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the fastest of thirty workouts at that distance.
Privilaged breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Awesome Act breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
Tidal Pool breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
APRIL 21st --- Churchill Downs
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in :58 3/5.
Fuzzy Britches breezed five furlongs in 1:04 3/5.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:14 4/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:12 flat.
APRIL 22nd --- Churchill Downs
Our Dark Knight breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Jackson Bend breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat, the co-fastest of twenty workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Downs
Doubles Partner breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a sloppy track.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :46 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-seven workouts at that distance.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a sloppy track.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Stay Put breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a wet fast track.
Ailalea breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Colizeo breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Paddy O’Prado breezed five furlongs in :58 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 on a sloppy track.
Crisp breezed five furlongs in 1:14 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of two workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Training
Dean’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in :1:01 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Kera’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
Stately Victor breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
OTHER TRIPLE CROWN NEWS
It sounds as though Lookin at Lucky will not wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby.
She Be Wild is out of the Kentucky Oaks due to a leg injury. However, she should be able to return to racing later this year.
Calvin Borel is confident that he can get Super Saver to relax in the Kentucky Derby.
Robby Albarado has chosen Endorsement over Noble's Promise as his Kentucky Derby mount. This may be partly due to the fact that Noble's Promise may not run in the Derby.
Noble's Promise worked a blazing five furlongs at Churchill Downs on April 20th, and is now "60-40" for the Derby.
Todd Pletcher has announced that he is considering running Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. This decision may be based on the fact that just three days ago, the filly worked the fastest of fourteen five furlongs workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Among the horses who worked slower than Devil May Care were A Little Warm, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Ibboyee, Mission Impazible, and Rule. Hmm . . .
AND NOW ONE LAST THING. . .
Can you believe that I'm not done yet? Nope, I still have one last thing to say.
With only one week remaining until Derby day, things are really starting to get hot. All the focus is on Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and a few others who have worked out sharply.
However, it is worth mentioning that there is a colt who is being overlooked, and has been overlooked for many months.
I'm going to say it now, because if he was to win the Derby, I would like to be one of the few people who can say that they considered him a contender. His workouts have been rather good, and his trainer is confident that his colt will get a piece of it. Who is this colt?
I'll tell you on Thursday.
Why Thursday? Well, for one thing, I would like to keep this colt's identity secret for a while, because it's fun to look forward to secrets. For another thing, I would like to wait until after the post positions are drawn, because that way I can truly tell you what I think of him.
But I'm not going to let you forget about him. Every blog post from now until I reveal who he is, I'm going to mention "The Mystery Colt" who has a big chance at hitting the board in, or even winning, the Kentucky Derby.
And that, my friends, is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
(P.S. After the Derby Trial is run, I will be post something more or less every day until the Derby is over. Also, on May 1st, I will be live on my blog, updating as post time draws nearer. This is going to be so much fun! ! !)
Oh wait a minute . . . that's next Saturday. Or at least I hope that's what happens next Saturday.
Getting serious, there is only one week left before the Kentucky Derby. And amazingly, there is still one final prep. And that is the Derby Trial, which has been reduced to nothing over the past several years, but with the severe earnings problem many top horses are facing, it is once again a prime trial for the Derby. If you can believe it, two of the colts running may end up in the Derby if they win. So let's take a look at the tough ten horse field and see what we can figure out.
DERBY TRIAL (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, April 24th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
To begin with, there is the number one horse Game On Dude. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since running seventh in the Florida Derby behind Ice Box five weeks ago. He has been fairly consistent, but proved that he was no match for the best horses in Florida. Still, he will be ridden by Robby Albarado and will have to carry only 117 pounds, which is four less than the high weight Eightyfiveinafifty. He might be in the mix, but may not be quite as good as some of the others that are running.
This brings us to the number two horse Soaring Empire. Another colt making his first start back since the Florida Derby, the son of Empire Maker did not get a great trip in that race, and may step up and run a big one tomorrow. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro and will carry 117 pounds.
Then there is the number three horse Privilaged. The son of Southern Image has only made one start this year, and that was in the grade II Swale Stakes on the undercard of the Florida Derby. He actually ran a very good race that day, racing three wide while chasing the pace. He ended up third, beaten three and a half lengths. I actually like him pretty well here, and I think that he has the ability to step up and run the race of his life. He will be ridden by R. Maragh and will carry 117 pounds.
Now we come to the four horse Pleasant Prince. The 4-1 morning line second choice has been racing rather frequently. Five weeks ago he ran second in the Florida Derby. Two weeks ago he ran seventh in the Blue Grass, but it was obvious that he hated Keeneland's Polytrack. Now he intends to run in the in the Derby Trial, and should he win, the Kentucky Derby. That would be four races in six weeks. And his seventh of the year. If he can handle it, he is a very rare horse. Anyway, the son of Indy King will be carrying 117 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by regular rider Julien Leparoux, who won the Eclipse award last year for outstanding jockey.
Next up is the number five horse Hurricane Ike. The son of Graeme Hall has ran an excellent race last time out in his first start on dirt, running second to Eightfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes while earning the highest Beyer speed figure of his life. He has yet to be proven beyond seven furlongs, as in his only start beyond that distance he ran eleventh in the Breeders' Futurity, but that was many months ago, and it was at Keeneland. Tomorrow, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel, which is always a good thing.
But we mustn’t ignore the six horse Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft broke his maiden impressively earlier this year, but ran a horrible race in the Florida Derby, being beaten nearly thirty-five lengths while having no obvious excuse. But I am willing to excuse his poor performance there and assume that he is going to bounce back. He will carry 117 pounds tomorrow, five pounds less than he has ever carried in his life, and will be ridden for the first time by Jose Lezcano.
This brings us to the number seven horse Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow will be making his tenth lifetime start at the sixth different track. He seems to be one of those colts who runs either really well or really poorly. Looking at his workouts, I would say that he has taken to Churchill Downs rather well, and might be ready to run his best race tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who rode the colt to his best victory, an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park.
Then there is the number eight horse Hear Ye Hear Ye. You certainly can't knock the son of Hear No Evil's soundness, as the Derby Trial will be his fourteenth start and his second of the month. If you can believe it, he has run in at least one race every month since last May, excluding the month of January. He has won twice, but is a state-restricted stakes winner. He has finished in the top three only three times, but has finished fourth five times. I don't think he will be a very big contender tomorrow, but with Corey Nakatani on his back, you never know. He will carry 117 pounds.
Coming down to the final two entries, we find Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True ran the worst race of his career in his last start, the Blue Grass Stakes. He has no obvious reason, as he had run well over Keeneland's Polytrack before, and we can only hope that he will return to his prior racing form. However, he has run his best races while coming from off the pace, and he might have been just a tad too close to the lead in the Blue Grass. Hopefully, his jockey Garrett Gomez will take him back tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds.
Finally, we come to the ten horse Eightyfiveinafifty. This colt is the solid morning line favorite at 8-5, and will probably be lower by post time, but he seems to be a bit wild. Two starts back he failed to turn going into the first turn at Aqueduct in the mile and a sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes. He ended up with a broken bit and a cut which required stitches. And in his last start, the Bay Shore Stakes, he won easily, but was not paying much attention to the race. For the first fifty yards or so, he ran with his head turned towards the infield and never seems completely comfortable. Another question that I ask is can he go a mile? The answer is perhaps. We'll find out tomorrow. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and will carry top weight of 121 pounds.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Pleasant Prince
3 Aikenite
5 Privilaged
6 Soaring Empire
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Game On Dude
9 Wow Wow Wow
10 Hear Ye Hear Ye
It was a tough decision, but I guess I'm not going to pick a colt who might not finish the race. I know that he is probably past not making turns, but he still seems to be a very erratic horse and somewhat unpredictable. Still, he appears to be a step or two above every other horse in this race. My pick is Hurricane Ike, who got within two and a half lengths of Eightyfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes. With an extra furlong, who knows what might happen? Wow Wow Wow is another horse I like, but I can't see him lasting the mile distance with the pace that is going to be run. There is a lot of speed in this race. As for third, I couldn't make up my mind. Pleasant Prince is probably better than Aikenite, but Aikenite hasn't raced so frequently this year and may have a bit more left in the end. Pleasant Prince will probably be coming late, but I can't see him getting up in time. If Aikenite sticks close to the pace, he will probably fade. If he comes from behind, me might just get there. As for Miner's Reserve and Soaring Empire, both of them have a shot at winning, but I just can't see them doing it. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, as there is only one week left before the Derby, there aren’t exactly a ton of races remaining. As I glance over my National Stakes Conditions booklet, I see only a few stakes races worth mentioning. I'll begin with the Withers Stakes and Aqueduct.
The grade III Withers Stakes used to be a very prestigious race. In recent years, however, it has been reduced to nothing more than a prep for the Preakness. Still, the one mile race has attracted a quality field of three year olds this year, although as far as I know none of them are aiming for the Triple Crown. But you never know what might happen . . .
I'm only going to briefly describe the race, but I'll try to be as thorough as possible. The heavy favorite will likely be D' Funnybone, who will be trying for his fifth graded stakes win. He is undefeated this year, with dual seven furlong grade II victories, but the question is can he go a mile? There is a fair amount of speed in this race, most of it coming from Most Happy Fella and Castaneda. Interestingly, Most Happy Fella is the number one horse, D' Funnybone the number two horse, Castaneda the number three. There could be an interesting speed dual early. If that was to be the case, than Afleet Again and Ibboyee might come running late. I would not be surprised at all if D' Funnybone is upset. Finally, there is the number five horse Spangled Star. Nobody seems to think that he has a chance, but you never know. He only has to carry 116 pounds, the same as Most Happy Fella, and he might just have a shot.
RACE RESULTS
First off, I shall recap the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The mile and a sixteenth event drew a tough field of twelve, and Connemara was made the slight favorite over Uptowncharlybrown. Bushwhacked and Krypton were also well liked.
The way I saw it, there was just enough speed that the winner would come from behind. I just couldn't see Krypton or Exhi wiring the race. I felt that Call Shot would sit just off the pace and win by a length or so, with Uptowncharlybrown rallying late for second and Connemara getting up for third.
Exhi went wire-to-wire. Connemara finished tenth and Call Shot eleventh.
It just goes to show that I should stay away from Keeneland. I do okay handicapping the little races there, but I always falter when it comes to the stakes races. Exhi, sent off at nearly 20-1, set pretty good fractions from the start and held off Bushwhacked and Uptowncharlybrown for the win. (But I did correctly predict Chief Counsel to come in fourth.)
So here are the final results. . .
1 Exhi
2 Bushwhacked
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Chief Counsel
5 Prince Will I Am
6 Kettle River
7 Distorted Dave
8 Heavenville
9 Krypton
10 Connemara
11 Call Shot
12 Lonesome Street
. . . versus my selections.
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
I didn't do very well, but I didn't do all that terrible. (Okay, I did rotten. I had the winner to finish sixth and the runner up to finish last. The only horses I was right about were Chief Counsel and Distorted Dave!)
But I'm satisfied with the results. Although none of the runners will be making it to the Derby, it was still a good prep, and one of the runners might end up in either the Preakness or the Belmont.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin with, there was the six furlong KHEY Y-96 Sprint Stakes at Sunland Park. A field of nine was drawn, the favorite being Malibu Mystic. My personal pick was Haitian Hero, and despite the fact that his morning line odds were something like 9-2, he was sent off at 22-1.
In the early going, Malibu Mystic led, with El Confidential, a 25-1 shot, and Haitian Hero pressing him on the outside. But as they started their drives, Malibu Mystic gave way, leaving Haitian Hero and El Confidential to battle it out. Under the wire it was Haitian Hero, El Confidential second. Timbavati made a lot of ground to finish third. Malibu Mystic finished eighth, beaten seventeen lengths.
Then there was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. For three year olds, my pick was Center Divider, and he was sent off as the 3-2 favorite. Also well liked was Mister Marti Gras.
In the early going, Justamatteroftime set the pace, followed closely by Patti's Kitten and Down With Dixie. Center Divider sat fourth for much of the race.
However, around the final turn, Center Divider began his run. Moving strongly while four wide, he took the lead at the eighth pole and drew off to win by four. Patti's Kitten, at 10-1, finished second, with Looks Purrrfect third. Mister Marti Gras was fourth.
And finally, there was a mile and a sixteenth allowance race on the turf at Keeneland. For three year old fillies, the race drew six runners. The narrowest of favorites was Lisa's Kitten, with Joharmony the second choice. Lucky Lass and Laura Babe were also well bet.
As it turned out, the order of finish was nearly identical to the odds they were sent off at. Joharmany, my pick, finished first by a neck, with Lisa's Kitten second, three quarters of a length in front of Lucky Lass. It was another six back to Laura Babe, with Full Storm and Wildcat Dreamer trailing. So the winner was 2-1, the runner up was 2-1, the third place finisher was 3-1, the fourth place finisher 4-1, the fifth place finisher 11-1, and the trailer 19-1. The bettors at Keeneland were almost completely right. If Lisa's Kitten had gotten up in time, they would have been completely right. Wow.
UNDERCOVER AT THE DOWNS
With the Kentucky Derby coming closer every minute, "Undercover at the Downs" is dedicated to helping sort out all the stuff that is going on at Churchill Downs, including workouts, possible equipment changes, and other news. To begin, here are some contenders who have worked out over the past week or so.
WORKOUTS
APRIL 15th
Hurricane Ike breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Jackson Bend breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Privilaged breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Wow Wow Wow breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5.
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5.
APRIL 16th --- Churchill Downs
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 flat.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :50 flat.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Seeking the Title breezed four furlongs in :50 1/5.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5.
Stay Put breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Training
Dean's Kitten breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the co-fastest of ten workouts at that distance.
Kera's Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Downs
Aspire breezed three furlongs in :36 flat, the co-fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Naiche breezed three furlongs in :37 3/5 on a good track.
Cool Bullet breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Miner's Reserve breezed four furlongs in :46 flat, the fastest of fifty-four workouts at that distance.
Fist of Rage breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5 on a good track.
Sheer Beauty breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a good track.
Sidney's Candy breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5.
Champagne d'Oro breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat.
Crisp breezed six furlongs in 1:15 1/5.
Elusive Jozi breezed six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 on a good track, the fastest of eight workouts at that distance.
APRIL 18th --- Churchill Downs
Bravo Whiskey breezed four furlongs in :50 3/5.
Don't Put It Back breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5.
Raging Wit breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:04 flat.
Raphael Alexandro breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat. (Not a contender, but a cute name.)
Safe Trip breezed five furlongs in :59 flat, the fastest of thirty-two workouts at that distance.
Thiskyhasnolimit breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Vow to Wager breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
APRIL 19th --- Churchill Downs
Decelerator breezed four furlongs in :47 flat.
Guru breezed four furlongs in :51 flat.
Necassary Evil breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5.
Bell's Shoes breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Dublin breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5, the fastest of forty-four workouts at that distance.
Game On Dude breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Northern Giant breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5.
Crider breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5.
Hot Dixie Chick breezed six furlongs in 1:13 3/5.
APRIL 20th --- Churchill Downs
Beautician breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5.
Diva Delite breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Hurrican Ike breezed five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
Line of David breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Noble's Promise breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the fastest of thirty workouts at that distance.
Privilaged breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Awesome Act breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
Tidal Pool breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
APRIL 21st --- Churchill Downs
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in :58 3/5.
Fuzzy Britches breezed five furlongs in 1:04 3/5.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:14 4/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:12 flat.
APRIL 22nd --- Churchill Downs
Our Dark Knight breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Jackson Bend breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat, the co-fastest of twenty workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Downs
Doubles Partner breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a sloppy track.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :46 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-seven workouts at that distance.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a sloppy track.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Stay Put breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a wet fast track.
Ailalea breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Colizeo breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Paddy O’Prado breezed five furlongs in :58 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 on a sloppy track.
Crisp breezed five furlongs in 1:14 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of two workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Training
Dean’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in :1:01 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Kera’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
Stately Victor breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
OTHER TRIPLE CROWN NEWS
It sounds as though Lookin at Lucky will not wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby.
She Be Wild is out of the Kentucky Oaks due to a leg injury. However, she should be able to return to racing later this year.
Calvin Borel is confident that he can get Super Saver to relax in the Kentucky Derby.
Robby Albarado has chosen Endorsement over Noble's Promise as his Kentucky Derby mount. This may be partly due to the fact that Noble's Promise may not run in the Derby.
Noble's Promise worked a blazing five furlongs at Churchill Downs on April 20th, and is now "60-40" for the Derby.
Todd Pletcher has announced that he is considering running Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. This decision may be based on the fact that just three days ago, the filly worked the fastest of fourteen five furlongs workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Among the horses who worked slower than Devil May Care were A Little Warm, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Ibboyee, Mission Impazible, and Rule. Hmm . . .
AND NOW ONE LAST THING. . .
Can you believe that I'm not done yet? Nope, I still have one last thing to say.
With only one week remaining until Derby day, things are really starting to get hot. All the focus is on Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and a few others who have worked out sharply.
However, it is worth mentioning that there is a colt who is being overlooked, and has been overlooked for many months.
I'm going to say it now, because if he was to win the Derby, I would like to be one of the few people who can say that they considered him a contender. His workouts have been rather good, and his trainer is confident that his colt will get a piece of it. Who is this colt?
I'll tell you on Thursday.
Why Thursday? Well, for one thing, I would like to keep this colt's identity secret for a while, because it's fun to look forward to secrets. For another thing, I would like to wait until after the post positions are drawn, because that way I can truly tell you what I think of him.
But I'm not going to let you forget about him. Every blog post from now until I reveal who he is, I'm going to mention "The Mystery Colt" who has a big chance at hitting the board in, or even winning, the Kentucky Derby.
And that, my friends, is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
(P.S. After the Derby Trial is run, I will be post something more or less every day until the Derby is over. Also, on May 1st, I will be live on my blog, updating as post time draws nearer. This is going to be so much fun! ! !)
Thursday, February 11, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 10th, 2010
Well, the weekend didn't go too well for my selections on the Triple Crown Trail. Racing was canceled at Santa Anita, Eightyfiveinafifty decided he didn't feel like running . . . at least not in the right direction . . . and a couple of my other selections just plain failed.
First off, I shall wrap up the Whirlaway Stakes of February 6th. To me, the race looked perfect for Eightfiveinafifty, but he was very rank, and going into the first turn bolted to the outside fence. I don't quite know what happened after that, but it sounded like he either jumped over or went through the outer rail, throwing his rider in the process. Then he ran around the barn area for a while until he was cornered. When caught, it was discovered that his bit was broken. Whether or not this happened going in to the first turn or later is unknown. But other than a cut on one of his legs, he was okay, and should be back in training soon. While all this was going on, Peppi Knows got a nice stalking trip behind pace setting Papa's Nice Cat, took the lead from him moving towards the homestretch and repelled all challenges. Afleet Again, at something like 21-1, raced far back throughout, but made a huge run late to just miss by one length. Three Day Rush finished third, Papa's Nice Cat fourth, and Turf Melody scratched.
So, the final results. . .
1 Peppi Knows
2 Afleet Again
3 Three Day Rush
4 Papa's Nice Cat
5 Eightyfiveinafifty
And my selections. . .
1 Eightyfiveinafifty
2 Afleet Again
3 Peppi Knows
4 Three Day Rush
5 Papa's Nice Cat
So I didn't do too badly. I'm looking forward to Afleet Again's next race, whatever it may be. Peppi Knows is definitely a horse to watch, but I'm not sure that he is Triple Crown caliber. Finally, it's possible that Eightyfiveinafifty could return to the Triple Crown Trail next month. He could try again in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) and should he complete any turns he encounters, race again in the Wood Memorial. He is still one to watch.
Now we move on to the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I). Unfortunately, it was pouring rain in California and the entire card was canceled. The two races mentioned have been postponed to the 13th. This will affect the runners’ schedules to some extent, but it shouldn't matter too much. My selections for those races will remain the same unless I should post otherwise.
Now that brings us to the Hallandale Beach Stakes, where my selection was Interactif. I also respected Asphalt, Bim Bam, Dean's Kitten, and Cat Park, giving Asphalt the most respect to upset Interactif. As it turned out, Bim Bam led for most of the race, with Interactif tracking him in second. The latter moved up approaching the homestretch and took the lead, but Bim Bam fought back and reclaimed the lead inside the final sixteenth to win by a nose. Asphalt finished third.
Finally, I come to the $48,000 allowance race at Gulfstream Park where I felt that Overcommunication would win, with Wildcat Frankie second. At the wire, it was Wildcat Frankie in front by 1 1/4 lengths with Overcommunication last of eight. So Wildcat Frankie will move on to the list of horses to watch, while Overcommunication will have to show something spectacular in his next race to warrant consideration as a Triple Crown horse.
So, I'm looking forward to next Saturday, not only for the two races that were canceled, but for the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs. It looks like this mile and a sixteenth prep for the Tampa Bay Derby could draw Uptowncharlybrown, whom I greatly respect. And just two days after that, the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn Park will be run, and it appears that Dublin could make his three year old debut here. If it draws Dryfly as well, this could be quite the race.
And last but not least, here is a list of horses who have worked out over the past few days. . .
February 7th
Moojab breezed five furlongs in 1:01 flat at Oaklawn Park.
Dryfly breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Oaklawn Park.
Rule worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Odysseus breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Mission Impazible worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Aikenite worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Super Saver breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Eskendereya breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Discreetly Mine worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Buddy's Saint worked six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Cool Bullet breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Pleasant Storm breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 at Louisiana Downs.
February 8th
Connemara worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Concord Point worked four furlongs in :47 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Caracortado worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Summer Games worked four furlongs in 51: 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Macias worked six furlongs in 1:13 flat handily at Santa Anita Park.
Switch worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Evening Jewel worked four furlongs in :48 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
La Nez worked five furlongs in 1:00 flat handily at Santa Anita Park.
American Lion worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Tiz Chrome worked five furlongs in :59 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Domonation worked six furlongs in 1:13 4/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Letsgetitonmon breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Fair Grounds.
Speedy Mon breezed five furlongs in 1:03 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Crisp worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Dave in Dixie worked six furlongs in 1:14 1/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Make Music for Me worked six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Sidney's Candy worked six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Nordic Truce breezed five furlongs in 1:03 flat at Payson Park Training Center.
Colizeo breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
February 9th
Lookin at Lucky worked three furlongs in :36 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Blind Luck worked five furlongs in :59 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Conveyance worked six furlongs in 1:13 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Tango Tango worked six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Uh Oh Bango worked six furlongs in 1:13 3/5 handily at Turf Paradise
Pulsion worked six furlongs in 1:11 flat handily at Gulfstream Park.
Best Actor breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Windy City Cat breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Thank U Philippe breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 at Calder Race Course.
February 10th
D'Funnybone breezed six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Gothics Peak worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
First Dude breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Tempted to Tapit worked five furlongs in :59 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Ron the Greek breezed six furlongs in 1:13 4/4 at Fair Grounds.
-Keelerman
First off, I shall wrap up the Whirlaway Stakes of February 6th. To me, the race looked perfect for Eightfiveinafifty, but he was very rank, and going into the first turn bolted to the outside fence. I don't quite know what happened after that, but it sounded like he either jumped over or went through the outer rail, throwing his rider in the process. Then he ran around the barn area for a while until he was cornered. When caught, it was discovered that his bit was broken. Whether or not this happened going in to the first turn or later is unknown. But other than a cut on one of his legs, he was okay, and should be back in training soon. While all this was going on, Peppi Knows got a nice stalking trip behind pace setting Papa's Nice Cat, took the lead from him moving towards the homestretch and repelled all challenges. Afleet Again, at something like 21-1, raced far back throughout, but made a huge run late to just miss by one length. Three Day Rush finished third, Papa's Nice Cat fourth, and Turf Melody scratched.
So, the final results. . .
1 Peppi Knows
2 Afleet Again
3 Three Day Rush
4 Papa's Nice Cat
5 Eightyfiveinafifty
And my selections. . .
1 Eightyfiveinafifty
2 Afleet Again
3 Peppi Knows
4 Three Day Rush
5 Papa's Nice Cat
So I didn't do too badly. I'm looking forward to Afleet Again's next race, whatever it may be. Peppi Knows is definitely a horse to watch, but I'm not sure that he is Triple Crown caliber. Finally, it's possible that Eightyfiveinafifty could return to the Triple Crown Trail next month. He could try again in the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) and should he complete any turns he encounters, race again in the Wood Memorial. He is still one to watch.
Now we move on to the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I). Unfortunately, it was pouring rain in California and the entire card was canceled. The two races mentioned have been postponed to the 13th. This will affect the runners’ schedules to some extent, but it shouldn't matter too much. My selections for those races will remain the same unless I should post otherwise.
Now that brings us to the Hallandale Beach Stakes, where my selection was Interactif. I also respected Asphalt, Bim Bam, Dean's Kitten, and Cat Park, giving Asphalt the most respect to upset Interactif. As it turned out, Bim Bam led for most of the race, with Interactif tracking him in second. The latter moved up approaching the homestretch and took the lead, but Bim Bam fought back and reclaimed the lead inside the final sixteenth to win by a nose. Asphalt finished third.
Finally, I come to the $48,000 allowance race at Gulfstream Park where I felt that Overcommunication would win, with Wildcat Frankie second. At the wire, it was Wildcat Frankie in front by 1 1/4 lengths with Overcommunication last of eight. So Wildcat Frankie will move on to the list of horses to watch, while Overcommunication will have to show something spectacular in his next race to warrant consideration as a Triple Crown horse.
So, I'm looking forward to next Saturday, not only for the two races that were canceled, but for the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs. It looks like this mile and a sixteenth prep for the Tampa Bay Derby could draw Uptowncharlybrown, whom I greatly respect. And just two days after that, the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn Park will be run, and it appears that Dublin could make his three year old debut here. If it draws Dryfly as well, this could be quite the race.
And last but not least, here is a list of horses who have worked out over the past few days. . .
February 7th
Moojab breezed five furlongs in 1:01 flat at Oaklawn Park.
Dryfly breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Oaklawn Park.
Rule worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Odysseus breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Mission Impazible worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Aikenite worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Super Saver breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Eskendereya breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Discreetly Mine worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Buddy's Saint worked six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Cool Bullet breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Pleasant Storm breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 at Louisiana Downs.
February 8th
Connemara worked five furlongs in 1:01 4/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Concord Point worked four furlongs in :47 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Caracortado worked five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Summer Games worked four furlongs in 51: 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Macias worked six furlongs in 1:13 flat handily at Santa Anita Park.
Switch worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Evening Jewel worked four furlongs in :48 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
La Nez worked five furlongs in 1:00 flat handily at Santa Anita Park.
American Lion worked five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Tiz Chrome worked five furlongs in :59 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Domonation worked six furlongs in 1:13 4/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Letsgetitonmon breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Fair Grounds.
Speedy Mon breezed five furlongs in 1:03 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Crisp worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Dave in Dixie worked six furlongs in 1:14 1/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Make Music for Me worked six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Sidney's Candy worked six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 handily at Hollywood Park.
Nordic Truce breezed five furlongs in 1:03 flat at Payson Park Training Center.
Colizeo breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
February 9th
Lookin at Lucky worked three furlongs in :36 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Blind Luck worked five furlongs in :59 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Conveyance worked six furlongs in 1:13 3/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Tango Tango worked six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
Uh Oh Bango worked six furlongs in 1:13 3/5 handily at Turf Paradise
Pulsion worked six furlongs in 1:11 flat handily at Gulfstream Park.
Best Actor breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Windy City Cat breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Thank U Philippe breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 at Calder Race Course.
February 10th
D'Funnybone breezed six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Gothics Peak worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
First Dude breezed four furlongs in :49 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Tempted to Tapit worked five furlongs in :59 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Ron the Greek breezed six furlongs in 1:13 4/4 at Fair Grounds.
-Keelerman
Sunday, February 07, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 5th, 2010
(This was actually supposed to be posted yesterday, Feb 6th--sorry for the delay!)
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 5th, 2010
Well, it's hard to believe that it's been almost two weeks since a graded stakes race for three year old colts was run. But now, a couple of good Triple Crown Preps have finally arrived, along with the first grade I stakes for three year old fillies. It's going to be an exciting weekend, and to begin, I'll dive into the details of each prep, race by race, starting with the Whirlaway Stakes in New York.
WHIRLAWAY STAKES ---- Aqueduct, Race 3, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Inner dirt track)
The big question in this race is can Eightyfiveinafifty, the morning line favorite, stretch out to two turns, going a mile and a sixteenth against winners for the first time. Eightyfiveinafifty, a son of Forest Camp, broke his maiden on January 9th at this same track going six furlongs. Normally, this wouldn't be any big deal, except that he won by 17 1/4 lengths. Any horse who can win any race by that much should be watched closely.
If Eightyfiveinafifty does succeed in taking Saturday's race, he could become a very dangerous horse to deal with. If he can carry his blazing speed two turns, he could have New York all to himself. If he does win, he will head to the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) followed by the Wood Memorial (gr. I) as final preps for the Triple Crown. Of course, he still has to win on Saturday. His workouts say that he's ready, his most recent being a three furlongs breeze where he went in :34 1/5. Still, he'll have plenty of competition tomorrow. Let's see who his opponents are. . .
Five horses have turned out to try and stop him. They are, in alphabetical order, Afleet Again, Papa's Nice Cat, Peppi Knows, Three Day Rush, and Turf Melody.
Afleet Again, a son of Afleet Alex, was supplemented into the race. He is owned by Cash is King Stable, the same stable that raced Afleet Alex, winner of the 2005 Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, and third in the Kentucky Derby. Wouldn't it be nice if Cash is King could win another Triple Crown race with a son of Afleet Alex? Perhaps Afleet Again will win the Kentucky Derby, the race his sire couldn't quite capture.
Of course, Afleet Again comes with his own credentials. He began 2010 with a fifth place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct, then shipped to Philidelphia Park and won an allowance race on January 17th, just fifteen days after the Count Fleet. Now, twenty days later, he turns out again to make his third start in five weeks. If he wins on Saturday, he will have proven that he can race three times in five weeks, just as the Triple Crown demands. So, should Afleet Again win, it will definately put him on the right track for the Triple Crown, and set him up perfectly for the Gotham Stakes. His workouts have also been excellent, his most recent being a four furlong breeze in :48 flat at Philidelphia Park. He should be ready.
Contender number two is Papa's Nice Cat, a son of One Nice Cat who is technically making his three year old debut. His last race was a runner up performance at Aqueduct on December 31st, so it was really more like his first start at three. He has been working out at Belmont Park, his most recent work being a four furlong breeze where he went :50 flat. Not quite the works that Afleet Again and Eightyfiveinafifty have been turning in, but solid nonetheless.
Contender number three is Peppi Knows, a gelding by Stephen Got Even, who has not raced since finishing second to Buddy's Saint in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct. So he has been proven over this track, and at two turns. His workouts have been unlike anything I've seen lately. His last two have been at one mile, both at Penn National in Pennsylvania. Still, they have been good works, and prior to them he worked five furlongs in :59 2/5 handily. So Peppi Knows seems ready to run a huge race.
Contender number four is Three Day Rush, a son of Harlan's Holiday who comes off of a six furlong allowance victory on January 9th. Prior to that he faded to finish fifth in the Iroquois (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. His workouts have been average workouts, nothing spectacular. It's possible that he may challenge Eightyfiveinafifty in the early going.
Contender number five, the last one, is Turf Melody, a son of Maria's Mon. Turf Melody has made eight starts already, which includes a win in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park to close out his two year old season. In his last race, he finished sixth in the grade III LeComte at Fair Grounds. His last three workouts were all at five furlongs, all have been 1:02 or slower, and he has had none since the LeComte. Not great workouts, but perhaps that was the plan.
Now that I've rattled off all of the entries, I shall give out my selections for the race. In the order I think they will finish. . .
1 Eightyfiveinafifty
2 Afleet Again
3 Peppi Knows
4 Three Day Rush
5 Turf Melody
6 Papa's Nice Cat
It appears to me that Eightyfiveinafifty is the deserving favorite, and that he should be able to carry his speed the over the distance. I have selected Afleet Again to finish second, due partly to his workouts. Peppi Knows certainly has class, finishing second to Buddy's Saint, and he could very well win this race. Three Day Rush will likely race close to the lead and tire in the final furlong, while Turf Melody may just not be good enough. Finally, Papa's Nice Cat will most likely be towards the rear at the conclusion of the race, not because he is a bad horse, but because the others seem to be just a bit better. Still, he's run well at this track, so it is very possible that he could surprise me and run very well. That concludes my analysis on the Whirlaway Stakes. Now I shall move on to the. . .
ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race was perhaps the hardest to try and figure out for this weekend, and I'm still not sure that I got it right. The two favorites, American Lion and Tiz Chrome, have never started in a two turn race, and every other horse in the field brings credentials that say "I can win this race!".
It is a toss up between American Lion and Tiz Chrome on which will finish in front of the other. They are both by Tiznow, twice winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic and both times by a nose. This says that Tiznow had some stamina, the ability to stay at the top of his game for a long time, and great courage. Hopefully he has passed this on to American Lion and Tiz Chrome. Getting back to those two, it would appear that American Lion has the slight advantage, but Tiz Chrome has the ability as well. American Lion has lost one race, while Tiz Chrome has lost none. On February 1st, both colts worked five furlongs, with Tiz Chrome finishing up in :59 1/5 handily while American Lion went in 1:00 handily. Based on their workouts alone, it would seem that Tiz Chrome is faster, and perhaps he is, but I believe that American Lion can run farther than the former can. Both of their pedigrees are good ones, but I give the slight edge to American Lion in this catagory. American Lion became a grade III winner after winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, while Tiz Chrome won the six and a half furlong Stuka Stakes in 1:14 2/5, which happens to be only 1 2/5 seconds off of the world record set by seven year old Sabertooth five years ago. So, to sum it all up, both of the favorites have the potential to become excellent horses, and both have the talent to win tomorrow.
On the other hand, there are other horses in this race, five to be exact. And they include the undefeated Caracortado, winner of all four of his starts. This is a big step up for him, but at least he's proven on this track at this distance. His pedigree isn't anything to write home about, but there is certainly nothing wrong with it. He could definitely threaten the big two.
Also trying to secure his spot in the Triple Crown is Dave in Dixie, who has not raced since finishing a fast closing sixth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). He has only made two starts, but could definitely run huge tomorrow and leap on to the Triple Crown Trail. His workouts have been brilliant, including a six furlong workout timed in 1:11 flat, handily.
Domonation, Macias, and Tango Tango complete the field. Domonation seems to be improving with every race, finishing second to Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes and then getting up for third in the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III) three weeks ago. Macias showed speed in winning the one mile Eddie Logan on the turf last December, so he could set the pace tomorrow, and if no one challenges him he could very well go wire to wire. Finally, Tango Tango comes off of an optional claiming race a month ago at Golden Gate Fields. I know little about him, but he definitely has a shot at the race.
So, my final decisions? I'm not sure. This race is wide open and any one of the seven entries could win. I guess if I was going to place a bet, which I'm not, I would put it on Caracortado. I can't see him being favored, but I also can't see why American Lion and Tiz Chrome are supposed to be better than he is.
So I suppose my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Macias
6 Domonation
7 Tango Tango
Of course, this should be close coming down to the final sixteenth. I expect Tix Chrome to have some good early speed, while American Lion waits just a few lengths off the pace. Macias could also put the pressure on up front, and Tango Tango could be anywhere. I'm going with Caracortado because he's been proven at this track and at this distance. He seems to be more experienced than American Lion and Tiz Chrome. I have selected Dave in Dixie to finish third, but the more I think about it, the more I think he could win. His workouts have been nothing short of spectacular. Finally, I just don't like Tiz Chrome here. He could be in the mix, but I just can't see him winning this race. I could be wrong, but that's my final thought.
LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is going to be a really great race to see, and a highly influential one at that. Blind Luck, two time grade I winner and Eclipse finalist last year makes her three year old debut. If she wins big tomorrow, and if she continues to win big, perhaps the Kentucky Derby is in her future.
But for now, it is the Las Virgenes Stakes, the first grade I race for three year olds this year. Six fillies have turned out for the race, and all have raced at Santa Anita before. Blind Luck is the obvious favorite, and appears to be almost unstoppable here. It’s hard to see her being beat, but if anyone can do it, it will be La Nez. She has won over this course before, has a third to the fine colt Caracortado, and has Mike Smith as her rider. In her most recent workout, she went five furlongs in a snappy :59 3/5.
Crisp, a daughter of El Corredor, should also run a fine race. She is coming off a win in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III) on January 10th. Her last workout was also pretty good, going six furlongs in 1:13 4/5.
Also coming from the Santa Ysabel is the runner up Evening Jewel and the third place finisher Switch. Both have better than average shots at grabbing second money, but don't seem to be quite good enough to handle Blind Luck. Still, Switch has turned in some incredible workouts, and could have a huge shot in this race, if she runs like she does in training.
Finally, there is Summer Games, who has only a maiden win to her credit. Of course, I always respect maiden winners, as you never know what they might do after they break their maiden. But, in this case, I would say that Summer Games doesn't quite look up to the task of taking on Blind Luck. Of course, it's wide open for second money, and Summer Games could snatch that away. Or, she could prove me wrong and come away with the victory. We'll find out tomorrow.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 La Nez
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Game
Of course, the results could very well be different from my selections above. It is very possible that La Nez could pull off the upset. The way I see it, any horse here is capable of taking the win, there is no real longshot here. But, unless there is a dead heat, which is unlikely, there can only be one winner. And I think the winner will be Blind Luck.
OTHER RACES OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND
Of course, the three races above aren't the only race this Saturday. There are many more good races, some of them for three year old colts.
The first race I will discuss is the Hallandale Beach Stakes on February 7th. The big name here is Interactif, a son of Broken Vow who was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and winner of two grade III races on the turf last year. His pedigree screams stamina, but there is a question as to whether he likes dirt. Of course, that will not be a concern on Sunday for the Hallandale Beach Stakes is run on the turf, but it could be a concern if Interactif is to try and become a Triple Crown horse. He will be ridden by regular rider Kent Desormeaux.
Of course, Interactif is not the only horse in the race. Seven additional horses have turned out to challenge him, and several of them look like they could steal the victory. Cat Park, a son of Tale of the Cat, is an allowance race winner and has placed in a couple of graded stakes on the turf. Dean's Kitten, a son of Kitten's Joy, is a stakes winner on the turf, although he doesn't seem to be quite as good as Interactif, finishing behind him on two different occasions. However, Cat Park will carry six pounds less than Interactif, and Dean's Kitten will carry two less. Not a huge difference, but it always helps.
Bim Bam, a son of Deputy Wild Cat, could also have a shot at the race. Since he switched to turf races, he has won the Arthur Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes last November and finished second in the Dania Beach Stakes on January 16th. Carrying 120 pounds, he could be in the mix.
Finally, we have Asphalt, Thunder Brew, Lucas Brady, and Our Champion. Of these, I would say that Asphalt has had the best workouts, Thunder Brew and Lucas Brady could run a big race, and Our Champion doesn't look quite good enough here. So, my final thoughts on this race are that Interactif looks like a solid favorite, while Cat Park, Bim Bam, and Asphalt could all run huge. If I was to bet a longshot, I would go with Asphalt. But I really like Interactif here.
Also on Saturday is a $48,000 allowance at Gulfstream Park. The race drew eight entries, with Overcommunication and Wildcat Frankie looking like the two big names. Rickyontherun, Enigmatic, Soldier Field, Bank the Eight, Barry's Money, and Tuvia's Force complete the field. Wildcat Frankie is coming off a second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at this same track, so he looks to be the deserving favorite. Overcommunication is a promising maiden winner who has the potential to step up to the task. His workouts have also been pretty good. Based off his works, Tuvia's Force could run a big one, and Bank the Eight looks good too. This race could mean absolutely nothing, but it's always good to watch those maiden winners. Final selection: Overcommunication, with Wildcat Frankie to finish second.
Finally, here is a list of horses who worked out over the past few days.
February 4th
D'Funnybone breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Tempted to Tapit went five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Conveyance went six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
February 5th
Fly Down breezed four furlongs in 50:00 flat at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Soaring Empire went five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Uptowncharlybrown breezed six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 at Tampa Bay Downs.
Amen Hallelujah breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Turbo Speed breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 at Penn National.
February 6th
Jackson Bend went four furlongs in :47 1/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Bulls and Bears went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
A Little Warm breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Lentenor went three furlongs in :36 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
Maximus Ruler breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Homeboykris went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
William's Kitten breezed four furlongs in :48 flat at Gulfstream Park.
Noble's Promise breezed three furlongs in :37 flat at Gulfstream Park.
posted by Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 5th, 2010
Well, it's hard to believe that it's been almost two weeks since a graded stakes race for three year old colts was run. But now, a couple of good Triple Crown Preps have finally arrived, along with the first grade I stakes for three year old fillies. It's going to be an exciting weekend, and to begin, I'll dive into the details of each prep, race by race, starting with the Whirlaway Stakes in New York.
WHIRLAWAY STAKES ---- Aqueduct, Race 3, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Inner dirt track)
The big question in this race is can Eightyfiveinafifty, the morning line favorite, stretch out to two turns, going a mile and a sixteenth against winners for the first time. Eightyfiveinafifty, a son of Forest Camp, broke his maiden on January 9th at this same track going six furlongs. Normally, this wouldn't be any big deal, except that he won by 17 1/4 lengths. Any horse who can win any race by that much should be watched closely.
If Eightyfiveinafifty does succeed in taking Saturday's race, he could become a very dangerous horse to deal with. If he can carry his blazing speed two turns, he could have New York all to himself. If he does win, he will head to the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) followed by the Wood Memorial (gr. I) as final preps for the Triple Crown. Of course, he still has to win on Saturday. His workouts say that he's ready, his most recent being a three furlongs breeze where he went in :34 1/5. Still, he'll have plenty of competition tomorrow. Let's see who his opponents are. . .
Five horses have turned out to try and stop him. They are, in alphabetical order, Afleet Again, Papa's Nice Cat, Peppi Knows, Three Day Rush, and Turf Melody.
Afleet Again, a son of Afleet Alex, was supplemented into the race. He is owned by Cash is King Stable, the same stable that raced Afleet Alex, winner of the 2005 Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, and third in the Kentucky Derby. Wouldn't it be nice if Cash is King could win another Triple Crown race with a son of Afleet Alex? Perhaps Afleet Again will win the Kentucky Derby, the race his sire couldn't quite capture.
Of course, Afleet Again comes with his own credentials. He began 2010 with a fifth place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct, then shipped to Philidelphia Park and won an allowance race on January 17th, just fifteen days after the Count Fleet. Now, twenty days later, he turns out again to make his third start in five weeks. If he wins on Saturday, he will have proven that he can race three times in five weeks, just as the Triple Crown demands. So, should Afleet Again win, it will definately put him on the right track for the Triple Crown, and set him up perfectly for the Gotham Stakes. His workouts have also been excellent, his most recent being a four furlong breeze in :48 flat at Philidelphia Park. He should be ready.
Contender number two is Papa's Nice Cat, a son of One Nice Cat who is technically making his three year old debut. His last race was a runner up performance at Aqueduct on December 31st, so it was really more like his first start at three. He has been working out at Belmont Park, his most recent work being a four furlong breeze where he went :50 flat. Not quite the works that Afleet Again and Eightyfiveinafifty have been turning in, but solid nonetheless.
Contender number three is Peppi Knows, a gelding by Stephen Got Even, who has not raced since finishing second to Buddy's Saint in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct. So he has been proven over this track, and at two turns. His workouts have been unlike anything I've seen lately. His last two have been at one mile, both at Penn National in Pennsylvania. Still, they have been good works, and prior to them he worked five furlongs in :59 2/5 handily. So Peppi Knows seems ready to run a huge race.
Contender number four is Three Day Rush, a son of Harlan's Holiday who comes off of a six furlong allowance victory on January 9th. Prior to that he faded to finish fifth in the Iroquois (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. His workouts have been average workouts, nothing spectacular. It's possible that he may challenge Eightyfiveinafifty in the early going.
Contender number five, the last one, is Turf Melody, a son of Maria's Mon. Turf Melody has made eight starts already, which includes a win in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park to close out his two year old season. In his last race, he finished sixth in the grade III LeComte at Fair Grounds. His last three workouts were all at five furlongs, all have been 1:02 or slower, and he has had none since the LeComte. Not great workouts, but perhaps that was the plan.
Now that I've rattled off all of the entries, I shall give out my selections for the race. In the order I think they will finish. . .
1 Eightyfiveinafifty
2 Afleet Again
3 Peppi Knows
4 Three Day Rush
5 Turf Melody
6 Papa's Nice Cat
It appears to me that Eightyfiveinafifty is the deserving favorite, and that he should be able to carry his speed the over the distance. I have selected Afleet Again to finish second, due partly to his workouts. Peppi Knows certainly has class, finishing second to Buddy's Saint, and he could very well win this race. Three Day Rush will likely race close to the lead and tire in the final furlong, while Turf Melody may just not be good enough. Finally, Papa's Nice Cat will most likely be towards the rear at the conclusion of the race, not because he is a bad horse, but because the others seem to be just a bit better. Still, he's run well at this track, so it is very possible that he could surprise me and run very well. That concludes my analysis on the Whirlaway Stakes. Now I shall move on to the. . .
ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race was perhaps the hardest to try and figure out for this weekend, and I'm still not sure that I got it right. The two favorites, American Lion and Tiz Chrome, have never started in a two turn race, and every other horse in the field brings credentials that say "I can win this race!".
It is a toss up between American Lion and Tiz Chrome on which will finish in front of the other. They are both by Tiznow, twice winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic and both times by a nose. This says that Tiznow had some stamina, the ability to stay at the top of his game for a long time, and great courage. Hopefully he has passed this on to American Lion and Tiz Chrome. Getting back to those two, it would appear that American Lion has the slight advantage, but Tiz Chrome has the ability as well. American Lion has lost one race, while Tiz Chrome has lost none. On February 1st, both colts worked five furlongs, with Tiz Chrome finishing up in :59 1/5 handily while American Lion went in 1:00 handily. Based on their workouts alone, it would seem that Tiz Chrome is faster, and perhaps he is, but I believe that American Lion can run farther than the former can. Both of their pedigrees are good ones, but I give the slight edge to American Lion in this catagory. American Lion became a grade III winner after winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, while Tiz Chrome won the six and a half furlong Stuka Stakes in 1:14 2/5, which happens to be only 1 2/5 seconds off of the world record set by seven year old Sabertooth five years ago. So, to sum it all up, both of the favorites have the potential to become excellent horses, and both have the talent to win tomorrow.
On the other hand, there are other horses in this race, five to be exact. And they include the undefeated Caracortado, winner of all four of his starts. This is a big step up for him, but at least he's proven on this track at this distance. His pedigree isn't anything to write home about, but there is certainly nothing wrong with it. He could definitely threaten the big two.
Also trying to secure his spot in the Triple Crown is Dave in Dixie, who has not raced since finishing a fast closing sixth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). He has only made two starts, but could definitely run huge tomorrow and leap on to the Triple Crown Trail. His workouts have been brilliant, including a six furlong workout timed in 1:11 flat, handily.
Domonation, Macias, and Tango Tango complete the field. Domonation seems to be improving with every race, finishing second to Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes and then getting up for third in the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III) three weeks ago. Macias showed speed in winning the one mile Eddie Logan on the turf last December, so he could set the pace tomorrow, and if no one challenges him he could very well go wire to wire. Finally, Tango Tango comes off of an optional claiming race a month ago at Golden Gate Fields. I know little about him, but he definitely has a shot at the race.
So, my final decisions? I'm not sure. This race is wide open and any one of the seven entries could win. I guess if I was going to place a bet, which I'm not, I would put it on Caracortado. I can't see him being favored, but I also can't see why American Lion and Tiz Chrome are supposed to be better than he is.
So I suppose my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Macias
6 Domonation
7 Tango Tango
Of course, this should be close coming down to the final sixteenth. I expect Tix Chrome to have some good early speed, while American Lion waits just a few lengths off the pace. Macias could also put the pressure on up front, and Tango Tango could be anywhere. I'm going with Caracortado because he's been proven at this track and at this distance. He seems to be more experienced than American Lion and Tiz Chrome. I have selected Dave in Dixie to finish third, but the more I think about it, the more I think he could win. His workouts have been nothing short of spectacular. Finally, I just don't like Tiz Chrome here. He could be in the mix, but I just can't see him winning this race. I could be wrong, but that's my final thought.
LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is going to be a really great race to see, and a highly influential one at that. Blind Luck, two time grade I winner and Eclipse finalist last year makes her three year old debut. If she wins big tomorrow, and if she continues to win big, perhaps the Kentucky Derby is in her future.
But for now, it is the Las Virgenes Stakes, the first grade I race for three year olds this year. Six fillies have turned out for the race, and all have raced at Santa Anita before. Blind Luck is the obvious favorite, and appears to be almost unstoppable here. It’s hard to see her being beat, but if anyone can do it, it will be La Nez. She has won over this course before, has a third to the fine colt Caracortado, and has Mike Smith as her rider. In her most recent workout, she went five furlongs in a snappy :59 3/5.
Crisp, a daughter of El Corredor, should also run a fine race. She is coming off a win in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III) on January 10th. Her last workout was also pretty good, going six furlongs in 1:13 4/5.
Also coming from the Santa Ysabel is the runner up Evening Jewel and the third place finisher Switch. Both have better than average shots at grabbing second money, but don't seem to be quite good enough to handle Blind Luck. Still, Switch has turned in some incredible workouts, and could have a huge shot in this race, if she runs like she does in training.
Finally, there is Summer Games, who has only a maiden win to her credit. Of course, I always respect maiden winners, as you never know what they might do after they break their maiden. But, in this case, I would say that Summer Games doesn't quite look up to the task of taking on Blind Luck. Of course, it's wide open for second money, and Summer Games could snatch that away. Or, she could prove me wrong and come away with the victory. We'll find out tomorrow.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 La Nez
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Game
Of course, the results could very well be different from my selections above. It is very possible that La Nez could pull off the upset. The way I see it, any horse here is capable of taking the win, there is no real longshot here. But, unless there is a dead heat, which is unlikely, there can only be one winner. And I think the winner will be Blind Luck.
OTHER RACES OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND
Of course, the three races above aren't the only race this Saturday. There are many more good races, some of them for three year old colts.
The first race I will discuss is the Hallandale Beach Stakes on February 7th. The big name here is Interactif, a son of Broken Vow who was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and winner of two grade III races on the turf last year. His pedigree screams stamina, but there is a question as to whether he likes dirt. Of course, that will not be a concern on Sunday for the Hallandale Beach Stakes is run on the turf, but it could be a concern if Interactif is to try and become a Triple Crown horse. He will be ridden by regular rider Kent Desormeaux.
Of course, Interactif is not the only horse in the race. Seven additional horses have turned out to challenge him, and several of them look like they could steal the victory. Cat Park, a son of Tale of the Cat, is an allowance race winner and has placed in a couple of graded stakes on the turf. Dean's Kitten, a son of Kitten's Joy, is a stakes winner on the turf, although he doesn't seem to be quite as good as Interactif, finishing behind him on two different occasions. However, Cat Park will carry six pounds less than Interactif, and Dean's Kitten will carry two less. Not a huge difference, but it always helps.
Bim Bam, a son of Deputy Wild Cat, could also have a shot at the race. Since he switched to turf races, he has won the Arthur Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes last November and finished second in the Dania Beach Stakes on January 16th. Carrying 120 pounds, he could be in the mix.
Finally, we have Asphalt, Thunder Brew, Lucas Brady, and Our Champion. Of these, I would say that Asphalt has had the best workouts, Thunder Brew and Lucas Brady could run a big race, and Our Champion doesn't look quite good enough here. So, my final thoughts on this race are that Interactif looks like a solid favorite, while Cat Park, Bim Bam, and Asphalt could all run huge. If I was to bet a longshot, I would go with Asphalt. But I really like Interactif here.
Also on Saturday is a $48,000 allowance at Gulfstream Park. The race drew eight entries, with Overcommunication and Wildcat Frankie looking like the two big names. Rickyontherun, Enigmatic, Soldier Field, Bank the Eight, Barry's Money, and Tuvia's Force complete the field. Wildcat Frankie is coming off a second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at this same track, so he looks to be the deserving favorite. Overcommunication is a promising maiden winner who has the potential to step up to the task. His workouts have also been pretty good. Based off his works, Tuvia's Force could run a big one, and Bank the Eight looks good too. This race could mean absolutely nothing, but it's always good to watch those maiden winners. Final selection: Overcommunication, with Wildcat Frankie to finish second.
Finally, here is a list of horses who worked out over the past few days.
February 4th
D'Funnybone breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Tempted to Tapit went five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Conveyance went six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
February 5th
Fly Down breezed four furlongs in 50:00 flat at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Soaring Empire went five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Uptowncharlybrown breezed six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 at Tampa Bay Downs.
Amen Hallelujah breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Turbo Speed breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 at Penn National.
February 6th
Jackson Bend went four furlongs in :47 1/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Bulls and Bears went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
A Little Warm breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Lentenor went three furlongs in :36 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
Maximus Ruler breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Homeboykris went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
William's Kitten breezed four furlongs in :48 flat at Gulfstream Park.
Noble's Promise breezed three furlongs in :37 flat at Gulfstream Park.
posted by Keelerman
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