Get ready --- it's a big weekend coming up. We're going to get a chance to see Rule, Uptowncharlybrown, Sassy Image, Blind Luck, American Lion, Caracortado, Tiz Chrome, La Nez, and quite possibly Dublin, all racing on February 13th, 14th, and 15th. When the racing is done, the trail to the Triple Crown will be considerably clearer.
So, let's take a look at what's brewing in Florida. . .
SAM F. DAVIS STAKES ---- Tampa Bay Downs, Race 10, February 12th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)
This race looks like it will be an extremely influential race, as it drew two highly regarded colts in Uptowncharlybrown and Rule. Rule, a son of Roman Ruler, already has enough graded earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby, but he still has to prove that he can get longer distances, and rate off of the pace. His pedigree doesn't shout distance, but it certainly doesn't say SPRINT either. So the question is will Rule take the lead in tomorrow's race and if so, can he hold off the rest of the field? His credentials say that he should be able to, he broke the track record for a mile at Delta Downs last year when he was only two, and he is proven in slop, and he has shown he can turn back challenges. Of course, I don't think he's ever taken on horses as good as the ones he'll face tomorrow. And he'll have to carry 122 pounds, which is four to six pounds more than the rest of his rivals.
So let's look at his opponents. Uptowncharlybrown looks to have the biggest chance at upsetting Rule. Undefeated in two starts, he broke his maiden last year at this track by nine lengths, and followed that up with a nice win in the Pasco Stakes on January 16th. He's got a lot of things going for him, including his name. Of course, it doesn't quite sound like Secretariat, Assault, Whirlaway, War Admiral, Affirmed, etc. etc., but I like it better than Omaha. Also, he will be carrying four pounds less than Rule.
Schoolyard Dreams, a son of Stephen Got Even, should also make his presence felt. He comes off of a maiden win at Philadelphia Park and an allowance race at this same track. He will carry six pounds less than Rule and two less than Uptowncharlybrown.
African Moon, runner up behind Schoolyard Dreams in the latter's allowance win, could improve off of that race. Tristen's Mambo was a very impressive maiden winner at this track late last year. Silver Craft, who finished fourth in the Pasco Stakes, is back for another go at Uptowncharlybrown, and Middle of the Nite comes off a third to highly regarded Eskendereya in a one mile allowance race. All will carry 116 pounds.
Now, looking at workouts alone, I would say that Uptowncharlybrown and Rule are pretty evenly matched. Both have had several nice workouts since January 24th, Uptowncharlybrown at Tampa Bay Downs and Rule at Palm Meadows Training Center.
So, it appears that there are several capable horses in this race. Here are my final selections. . .
1 Uptowncharlybrown
2 Rule
3 Tristen's Mambo
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 African Moon
6 Middle of the Nite
7 Silver Craft
I feel that Rule just won't be able to get this distance against the likes of Uptowncharlybrown. I could be wrong, but that's my thought. Tristen's Mambo has a nice win on this track last year, year so it's quite possible that he will run well, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he was to win. Schoolyard Dreams looks to have a chance at this race, but I like the other three slightly better. African Moon could definitely run a huge race, but I somehow don't think so. Middle of the Nite is a mystery, and so is Silver Craft. We'll see who's in front at the finish tomorrow.
Next up, I'll discuss the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I). This race was supposed to be run last week, but was canceled due to rain. However, all six horses have returned to race tomorrow, so I'll just repost what I posted last week.
LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is going to be a really great race to see, and a highly influential one at that. Blind Luck, two time grade I winner and Eclipse finalist last year makes her three year old debut. If she wins big tomorrow, and if she continues to win big, perhaps the Kentucky Derby is in her future.
But for now, it is the Las Virgenes Stakes, the first grade I race for three year olds this year. Six fillies have turned out for the race, and all have raced at Santa Anita before. Blind Luck is the obvious favorite, and appears to be almost unstoppable here. I hard to see her being beat, but if anyone can do it, it will be La Nez. She has won over this course before, has a third to the fine colt Caracortado, and has Mike Smith as her rider. In her most recent workout, she went five furlongs in a snappy :59 3/5.
Crisp, a daughter of El Corredor, should also run a fine race. She is coming off a win in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III) on January 10th. Her last workout was also pretty good, going six furlongs in 1:13 4/5.
Also coming from the Santa Ysabel is the runner up Evening Jewel and the third place finisher Switch. Both have better than average shots at grabbing second money, but don't seem to be quite good enough to handle Blind Luck. Still, Switch has turned in some incredible workouts, and could have a huge shot in this race, if she runs like she does in training.
Finally, there is Summer Games, who has only a maiden win to her credit. Of course, I always respect maiden winners, as you never know what they might do after they break their maiden. But, in this case, I would say that Summer Games doesn't quite look up to the task of taking on Blind Luck. Of course, it is wide open for second money, and Summer Games could snatch that away. Or, she could prove me wrong and come away with the victory. We'll find out tomorrow.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 La Nez
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Games
Of course, the results could very well be different from my selections above. It is very possible that La Nez could pull off the upset. The way I see it, any horse here is capable of taking the win, there is no real longshot here. But, unless there is a dead heat, which is unlikely, there can only be one winner. And I think the winner will be Blind Luck.
And those remain my final thoughts on the race. Now for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). It was on the same card as the Las Virgenes, so again, I'll just repost what I posted last week.
ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 6, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race was perhaps the hardest to try and figure out for this weekend, and I'm still not sure that I got it right. The two favorites, American Lion and Tiz Chrome, have never started in a two turn race, and every other horse in the field brings credentials that say "I can win this race!".
It is a toss up between American Lion and Tiz Chrome on which will finish in front of the other. They are both by Tiznow, twice winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic and both times by a nose. This says that Tiznow had some stamina, the ability to stay at the top of his game for a long time, and great courage. Hopefully he has passed this on to American Lion and Tiz Chrome. Getting back to those two, it would appear that American Lion has the slight advantage, but Tiz Chrome has the ability as well. American Lion has lost one race, while Tiz Chrome has lost none. On February 1st, both colts worked five furlongs, with Tiz Chrome finishing up in :59 1/5 handily while American Lion went in 1:00 handily. Based on their workouts alone, it would seem that Tiz Chrome is faster, and perhaps he is, but I believe that American Lion can run farther than the former can. Both of their pedigrees are good ones, but I give the slight edge to American Lion in this catagory. American Lion became a grade III winner after winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, while Tiz Chrome won the six an a half furlong Stuka Stakes in 1:14 2/5, which happens to be only 1 2/5 seconds off of the world record set by seven year old Sabertooth five years ago. So, to sum it all up, both of the favorites have the potential to become excellent horses, and both have the talent to win tomorrow.
On the other hand, there are other horses in this race, five to be exact. And they include the undefeated Caracortado, winner of all four of his starts. This is a big step up for him, but at least he's proven on this track at this distance. His pedigree isn't anything to write home about, but there is certainly nothing wrong with it. He could definately threaten the big two.
Also trying to secure his spot in the Triple Crown is Dave in Dixie, who has not raced since finishing a fast closing sixth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). He has only made to starts, but could definately run huge tomorrow and leap on to the Triple Crown Trail. His workouts have been brilliant, including a six furlong workout timed in 1:11 flat, handily.
Domonation, Macias, and Tango Tango complete the field. Domonation seems to be improving with every race, finishing second to Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes and then getting up for third in the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III) three weeks ago. Macias showed speed in winning the one mile Eddie Logan on the turf last December, so he could set the pace tomorrow, and if no one challenges him he could very well go wire to wire. Finally, Tango Tango comes off of an optional claiming race a month ago at Golden Gate Fields. I know little about him, but he definately has a shot at the race.
So, my final decisions? I'm not sure. This race is wide open and any one of the seven entries could win. I guess if I was going to place a bet, which I'm not, I would put it on Caracortado. I can't see him being favored, but I also can't see why American Lion and Tiz Chrome are supposed to be better than he is.
So I suppose my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Macias
6 Domonation
7 Tango Tango
Of course, this should be close coming down to the final sixteenth. I expect Tix Chrome to have some good early speed, while American Lion waits just a few lengths off the pace. Macias could also put the pressure on up front, and Tango Tango could be anywhere. I'm going with Caracortado because he's been proven at this track and at this distance. He seems to be more experienced than American Lion and Tiz Chrome. I have selected Dave in Dixie to finish third, but the more I think about it, the more I think he could win. His workouts have been nothing short of spectacular. Finally, I just don't like Tiz Chrome here. He could be in the mix, but I just can't see him winning this race. I could be wrong, but that's my final thought.
However, in the case of the Robert B. Lewis, two of the horses, Macias and Domonation, have decided not to run this week. So the updated list of my selections. .
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Tango Tango
Looking strictly at workouts, Tiz Chrome looks the best, his last work being five furlongs in :59 3/5. American Lion looks good as well, going five furlongs in 1:00 2/5, and Caracortado had a nearly identical workout, going five furlongs in 1:00 3/5. Tango Tango worked six furlongs in 1:13 1/5. All four of those works were at Santa Anita Park. Finally, Dave in Dixie worked six furlongs in 1:14 1/5. So, despite all of these workouts, I still think that Caracortado will pull off the surprise win, with American Lion second and Dave in Dixie third. Tiz Chrome will likely set the pace and fade on the final turn. I could be wrong, but those are my final thoughts. (Unless the race gets canceled again. . .)
More updates to come over the next few days. Tomorrow, I shall discuss the Coconut Grove Stakes at Gulfstream Park, where Sassy Image will try once again to make a start on turf. She was supposed to make her three year old debut on turf, but the race was rained on to the dirt. Finally, I'm not sure when the entries for the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) will be announced, but I assume that Dublin will start, and I expect a big effort from him, perhaps enough to move him into the #2 position on my Top Twenty. It's also possible that he could move on to the top of the list, if he runs really well and Buddy's Saint turns in a poor effort in the Fountain of Youth, which hopefully won't happen. It's also possible that the race could draw Dryfly, winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, could come out for the race. If so, it should be a good one.
And last but not least, here is a list of workouts over the past couple days.
February 11th
Coyote Legend worked four furlongs in :47 3/5 handily at Sam Houston Race Park in the mud.
Dublin breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Oaklawn Park.
Sassy Image breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Amen Hallelujah breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Stay Put breezed six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 at Fair Grounds.
February 12th
Lentenor worked four furlongs in :48 flat handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Bulls and Bears breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Northern Giant breezed four furlongs in :51 2/5 at Oaklawn Park.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:02 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
posted by Keelerman
Showing posts with label American Lion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label American Lion. Show all posts
Friday, February 12, 2010
Thursday, February 11, 2010
THE TWENTY, as of February 10th, 2010
1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
Had a really sharp workout at Gulfstream Park on the 7th, going six furlongs in 1:12 2/5. He will be ready for the Fountain of Youth, without a doubt.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He's the highweight on the Experimental Handicap for colts at 126 pounds. Right now, he's the top colt in California, but the Robert B. Lewis Stakes should throw out a worthy contender for him.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I can't believe that Dublin is being generally ignored. He is going to run huge in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and I feel confident that he will be one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
4. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
Worked four furlongs on February 7th, I imagine he will make his three year old debut in the Fountain of Youth. His front running style could be potentially dangerous, as he appears to be able to go a distance.
5. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
His last workout was spectacular, going a half mile in :47 1/5 handily. He will be a huge threat in the Fountain of Youth, should he start. Pedigree is still a question, so he'll need to be moving up at the finish, not retreating.
6. DRYFLY Jump Start - Creeksider, by Topsider Lynn S, Whiting
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 down at Oaklawn Park, I assume in preparation for the Southwest Stakes. It's going to be great to see Dryfly and Dublin battle it out, should they both start. His pedigree looks good.
7. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
The Robert B. Lewis was postponed due to rain, so he has to wait another week to make his two turn debut. Very unfortunate, but if he is truly a good horse, it won't affect him.
8. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
If he starts in the Risen Star as planned, watch out Louisiana horses. He could very well be one of the favorites for the Triple Crown if he keeps running like he did in the LeComte.
9. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
The Las Virgenes was on the canceled card with the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, so she'll have to wait until the 13th to make her return. I remain confident that she can win the Santa Anita Derby in April. If she wins on Saturday like she won the Starlet, she'll be in my top five.
10. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
Wondering where he will show up next. Will it be the Fountain of Youth, the Risen Star, the Sam F. Davis, or something else entirely? Has a nice four furlong workout on the 6th.
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Had a nice five furlong workout on Saturday and I imagine he's aiming for the Fountain of Youth. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if he suddenly packed up his bags and shipped to Louisiana for the Risen Star, so I'll have to wait and see.
12. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
Had every chance to defeat Bim Bam in the Hallandale Beach Stakes but just couldn't out fight him. Despite his great pedigree, it's starting to look like he may not be able to go as far as I thought. I'll have to wait and see.
13. AFLEET EXPRESS Afleet Alex - Expanse, by Distant View James A. Jerkens
The big question is whether James Jerkens will try to pull off a miracle and run him in the Fountain of Youth. If he should go for it, he cannot be ignored.
14. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
His workout on the 9th was astonishing, so the vet scratch must not have been anything too serious. However, he is still left without a prep for the Fountain of Youth, so if he does run, there will be no way to know if he is on the same level as Buddy's Saint until the race is over.
15. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN
I’m eagerly anticipating his next race. If he runs in the Sam F. Davis, he'll be the one to beat. Should he win impressively, expect to see him in my top ten. Really good name.
16. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
His workouts have been interesting, not really fast, but not really slow. There is still the question of whether he can get the distance, his pedigree doesn't really come out and scream distance.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
He worked three furlongs in :37 flat at Gulfstream Park on the 6th. The Hutcheson Stakes seems to be a nice place for him, but the Fountain of Youth seems more likely. If he runs in the latter, his class will be tested for sure.
18. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed bin Suroor
Impossible to gauge him, considering that he is in Dubai. If he makes it to a Triple Crown race, there will be a lot of guess work to do.
19. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet
Despite the fact that the Fountain of Youth is probably the next step, I think that the Hutcheson would suit him better, let him step up in class slowly rather than take on Buddy's Saint and who knows who else in the Fountain of Youth right away. The Hutcheson, followed by the Florida Derby would be great.
20. CARACORDTADO
I expect him to run well in the Robert B. Lewis, and I think he has a good shot at winning. The class test still needs to be answered, but he looks like a legitimate Triple Crown Horse.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
SASSY IMAGE Wasn't nominated to Triple Crown.
BACKTALK Sanford winner just isn’t on track. I’m anticipating his return.
CONNEMARA Didn’t quite get it done in the California Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Waiting until he races before I move him up.
FLY BY PHIL We’ll have to wait for his next start, but he’s won on dirt.
A PLUS TOPPER On here because of his maiden win, wasn't nominated to TC.
OUTQUEST On here because of his maiden win, wasn't nominated to TC.
LAUS DEO Won the Count Fleet at Aqueduct, perhaps he’ll run in the Gotham.
STAY PUT May start in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Watch out.
A LITTLE WARM He’ll wait for the Hutcheson, then maybe the Florida Derby.
AIKENITE I’m not sure what to think of him.
LENTENOR Michael Matz thinks he can do it.
MAXIMUS RULER It looks like he just doesn’t have the stamina.
GENERAL MAXIMUS He has got the speed, but can he carry it a distance?
KERA’S KITTEN Wait and watch.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY Perhaps he'll recover in time for the Gotham.
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
HOMEBOYKRIS Seems to be a sprinter.
TIZ CHROME His return was delayed, must wait until the 13th.
ESKENDEREYA Who knows how good he is. Perhaps the FOY is in his future.
TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Hasn’t worked in sixty days.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Perhaps the Sam F. Davis Stakes is next.
CARACORTADO Am waiting for the Robert B. Lewis before I move him up.
AFLEET AGAIN His run in the Whirlaway was very impressive, but he wasn't nominated to the TC.
CONCORD POINT Nice workouts.
And finally, just for fun, I have selected a random three year old off of the list of 366 colts nominated to the Triple Crown. The only requirement was that he must never have been mentioned on this blog before. So, after two attempts, (the first time around, my finger landed on Pulsion, could it be a sign?) the horse I have selected is Outlaw Man. From now on, I shall follow his every move and post every fact I can find here on this blog.
posted by Keelerman
Had a really sharp workout at Gulfstream Park on the 7th, going six furlongs in 1:12 2/5. He will be ready for the Fountain of Youth, without a doubt.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He's the highweight on the Experimental Handicap for colts at 126 pounds. Right now, he's the top colt in California, but the Robert B. Lewis Stakes should throw out a worthy contender for him.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I can't believe that Dublin is being generally ignored. He is going to run huge in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and I feel confident that he will be one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
4. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
Worked four furlongs on February 7th, I imagine he will make his three year old debut in the Fountain of Youth. His front running style could be potentially dangerous, as he appears to be able to go a distance.
5. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
His last workout was spectacular, going a half mile in :47 1/5 handily. He will be a huge threat in the Fountain of Youth, should he start. Pedigree is still a question, so he'll need to be moving up at the finish, not retreating.
6. DRYFLY Jump Start - Creeksider, by Topsider Lynn S, Whiting
Breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 down at Oaklawn Park, I assume in preparation for the Southwest Stakes. It's going to be great to see Dryfly and Dublin battle it out, should they both start. His pedigree looks good.
7. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
The Robert B. Lewis was postponed due to rain, so he has to wait another week to make his two turn debut. Very unfortunate, but if he is truly a good horse, it won't affect him.
8. RON THE GREEK Full Mandate - Flambe, by Fortunate Prospect Thomas M. Amoss
If he starts in the Risen Star as planned, watch out Louisiana horses. He could very well be one of the favorites for the Triple Crown if he keeps running like he did in the LeComte.
9. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
The Las Virgenes was on the canceled card with the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, so she'll have to wait until the 13th to make her return. I remain confident that she can win the Santa Anita Derby in April. If she wins on Saturday like she won the Starlet, she'll be in my top five.
10. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
Wondering where he will show up next. Will it be the Fountain of Youth, the Risen Star, the Sam F. Davis, or something else entirely? Has a nice four furlong workout on the 6th.
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Had a nice five furlong workout on Saturday and I imagine he's aiming for the Fountain of Youth. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if he suddenly packed up his bags and shipped to Louisiana for the Risen Star, so I'll have to wait and see.
12. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
Had every chance to defeat Bim Bam in the Hallandale Beach Stakes but just couldn't out fight him. Despite his great pedigree, it's starting to look like he may not be able to go as far as I thought. I'll have to wait and see.
13. AFLEET EXPRESS Afleet Alex - Expanse, by Distant View James A. Jerkens
The big question is whether James Jerkens will try to pull off a miracle and run him in the Fountain of Youth. If he should go for it, he cannot be ignored.
14. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
His workout on the 9th was astonishing, so the vet scratch must not have been anything too serious. However, he is still left without a prep for the Fountain of Youth, so if he does run, there will be no way to know if he is on the same level as Buddy's Saint until the race is over.
15. UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN
I’m eagerly anticipating his next race. If he runs in the Sam F. Davis, he'll be the one to beat. Should he win impressively, expect to see him in my top ten. Really good name.
16. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
His workouts have been interesting, not really fast, but not really slow. There is still the question of whether he can get the distance, his pedigree doesn't really come out and scream distance.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
He worked three furlongs in :37 flat at Gulfstream Park on the 6th. The Hutcheson Stakes seems to be a nice place for him, but the Fountain of Youth seems more likely. If he runs in the latter, his class will be tested for sure.
18. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed bin Suroor
Impossible to gauge him, considering that he is in Dubai. If he makes it to a Triple Crown race, there will be a lot of guess work to do.
19. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor - Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet
Despite the fact that the Fountain of Youth is probably the next step, I think that the Hutcheson would suit him better, let him step up in class slowly rather than take on Buddy's Saint and who knows who else in the Fountain of Youth right away. The Hutcheson, followed by the Florida Derby would be great.
20. CARACORDTADO
I expect him to run well in the Robert B. Lewis, and I think he has a good shot at winning. The class test still needs to be answered, but he looks like a legitimate Triple Crown Horse.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
SASSY IMAGE Wasn't nominated to Triple Crown.
BACKTALK Sanford winner just isn’t on track. I’m anticipating his return.
CONNEMARA Didn’t quite get it done in the California Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Waiting until he races before I move him up.
FLY BY PHIL We’ll have to wait for his next start, but he’s won on dirt.
A PLUS TOPPER On here because of his maiden win, wasn't nominated to TC.
OUTQUEST On here because of his maiden win, wasn't nominated to TC.
LAUS DEO Won the Count Fleet at Aqueduct, perhaps he’ll run in the Gotham.
STAY PUT May start in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Watch out.
A LITTLE WARM He’ll wait for the Hutcheson, then maybe the Florida Derby.
AIKENITE I’m not sure what to think of him.
LENTENOR Michael Matz thinks he can do it.
MAXIMUS RULER It looks like he just doesn’t have the stamina.
GENERAL MAXIMUS He has got the speed, but can he carry it a distance?
KERA’S KITTEN Wait and watch.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY Perhaps he'll recover in time for the Gotham.
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
HOMEBOYKRIS Seems to be a sprinter.
TIZ CHROME His return was delayed, must wait until the 13th.
ESKENDEREYA Who knows how good he is. Perhaps the FOY is in his future.
TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Hasn’t worked in sixty days.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Perhaps the Sam F. Davis Stakes is next.
CARACORTADO Am waiting for the Robert B. Lewis before I move him up.
AFLEET AGAIN His run in the Whirlaway was very impressive, but he wasn't nominated to the TC.
CONCORD POINT Nice workouts.
And finally, just for fun, I have selected a random three year old off of the list of 366 colts nominated to the Triple Crown. The only requirement was that he must never have been mentioned on this blog before. So, after two attempts, (the first time around, my finger landed on Pulsion, could it be a sign?) the horse I have selected is Outlaw Man. From now on, I shall follow his every move and post every fact I can find here on this blog.
posted by Keelerman
Sunday, February 07, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 5th, 2010
(This was actually supposed to be posted yesterday, Feb 6th--sorry for the delay!)
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 5th, 2010
Well, it's hard to believe that it's been almost two weeks since a graded stakes race for three year old colts was run. But now, a couple of good Triple Crown Preps have finally arrived, along with the first grade I stakes for three year old fillies. It's going to be an exciting weekend, and to begin, I'll dive into the details of each prep, race by race, starting with the Whirlaway Stakes in New York.
WHIRLAWAY STAKES ---- Aqueduct, Race 3, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Inner dirt track)
The big question in this race is can Eightyfiveinafifty, the morning line favorite, stretch out to two turns, going a mile and a sixteenth against winners for the first time. Eightyfiveinafifty, a son of Forest Camp, broke his maiden on January 9th at this same track going six furlongs. Normally, this wouldn't be any big deal, except that he won by 17 1/4 lengths. Any horse who can win any race by that much should be watched closely.
If Eightyfiveinafifty does succeed in taking Saturday's race, he could become a very dangerous horse to deal with. If he can carry his blazing speed two turns, he could have New York all to himself. If he does win, he will head to the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) followed by the Wood Memorial (gr. I) as final preps for the Triple Crown. Of course, he still has to win on Saturday. His workouts say that he's ready, his most recent being a three furlongs breeze where he went in :34 1/5. Still, he'll have plenty of competition tomorrow. Let's see who his opponents are. . .
Five horses have turned out to try and stop him. They are, in alphabetical order, Afleet Again, Papa's Nice Cat, Peppi Knows, Three Day Rush, and Turf Melody.
Afleet Again, a son of Afleet Alex, was supplemented into the race. He is owned by Cash is King Stable, the same stable that raced Afleet Alex, winner of the 2005 Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, and third in the Kentucky Derby. Wouldn't it be nice if Cash is King could win another Triple Crown race with a son of Afleet Alex? Perhaps Afleet Again will win the Kentucky Derby, the race his sire couldn't quite capture.
Of course, Afleet Again comes with his own credentials. He began 2010 with a fifth place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct, then shipped to Philidelphia Park and won an allowance race on January 17th, just fifteen days after the Count Fleet. Now, twenty days later, he turns out again to make his third start in five weeks. If he wins on Saturday, he will have proven that he can race three times in five weeks, just as the Triple Crown demands. So, should Afleet Again win, it will definately put him on the right track for the Triple Crown, and set him up perfectly for the Gotham Stakes. His workouts have also been excellent, his most recent being a four furlong breeze in :48 flat at Philidelphia Park. He should be ready.
Contender number two is Papa's Nice Cat, a son of One Nice Cat who is technically making his three year old debut. His last race was a runner up performance at Aqueduct on December 31st, so it was really more like his first start at three. He has been working out at Belmont Park, his most recent work being a four furlong breeze where he went :50 flat. Not quite the works that Afleet Again and Eightyfiveinafifty have been turning in, but solid nonetheless.
Contender number three is Peppi Knows, a gelding by Stephen Got Even, who has not raced since finishing second to Buddy's Saint in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct. So he has been proven over this track, and at two turns. His workouts have been unlike anything I've seen lately. His last two have been at one mile, both at Penn National in Pennsylvania. Still, they have been good works, and prior to them he worked five furlongs in :59 2/5 handily. So Peppi Knows seems ready to run a huge race.
Contender number four is Three Day Rush, a son of Harlan's Holiday who comes off of a six furlong allowance victory on January 9th. Prior to that he faded to finish fifth in the Iroquois (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. His workouts have been average workouts, nothing spectacular. It's possible that he may challenge Eightyfiveinafifty in the early going.
Contender number five, the last one, is Turf Melody, a son of Maria's Mon. Turf Melody has made eight starts already, which includes a win in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park to close out his two year old season. In his last race, he finished sixth in the grade III LeComte at Fair Grounds. His last three workouts were all at five furlongs, all have been 1:02 or slower, and he has had none since the LeComte. Not great workouts, but perhaps that was the plan.
Now that I've rattled off all of the entries, I shall give out my selections for the race. In the order I think they will finish. . .
1 Eightyfiveinafifty
2 Afleet Again
3 Peppi Knows
4 Three Day Rush
5 Turf Melody
6 Papa's Nice Cat
It appears to me that Eightyfiveinafifty is the deserving favorite, and that he should be able to carry his speed the over the distance. I have selected Afleet Again to finish second, due partly to his workouts. Peppi Knows certainly has class, finishing second to Buddy's Saint, and he could very well win this race. Three Day Rush will likely race close to the lead and tire in the final furlong, while Turf Melody may just not be good enough. Finally, Papa's Nice Cat will most likely be towards the rear at the conclusion of the race, not because he is a bad horse, but because the others seem to be just a bit better. Still, he's run well at this track, so it is very possible that he could surprise me and run very well. That concludes my analysis on the Whirlaway Stakes. Now I shall move on to the. . .
ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race was perhaps the hardest to try and figure out for this weekend, and I'm still not sure that I got it right. The two favorites, American Lion and Tiz Chrome, have never started in a two turn race, and every other horse in the field brings credentials that say "I can win this race!".
It is a toss up between American Lion and Tiz Chrome on which will finish in front of the other. They are both by Tiznow, twice winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic and both times by a nose. This says that Tiznow had some stamina, the ability to stay at the top of his game for a long time, and great courage. Hopefully he has passed this on to American Lion and Tiz Chrome. Getting back to those two, it would appear that American Lion has the slight advantage, but Tiz Chrome has the ability as well. American Lion has lost one race, while Tiz Chrome has lost none. On February 1st, both colts worked five furlongs, with Tiz Chrome finishing up in :59 1/5 handily while American Lion went in 1:00 handily. Based on their workouts alone, it would seem that Tiz Chrome is faster, and perhaps he is, but I believe that American Lion can run farther than the former can. Both of their pedigrees are good ones, but I give the slight edge to American Lion in this catagory. American Lion became a grade III winner after winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, while Tiz Chrome won the six and a half furlong Stuka Stakes in 1:14 2/5, which happens to be only 1 2/5 seconds off of the world record set by seven year old Sabertooth five years ago. So, to sum it all up, both of the favorites have the potential to become excellent horses, and both have the talent to win tomorrow.
On the other hand, there are other horses in this race, five to be exact. And they include the undefeated Caracortado, winner of all four of his starts. This is a big step up for him, but at least he's proven on this track at this distance. His pedigree isn't anything to write home about, but there is certainly nothing wrong with it. He could definitely threaten the big two.
Also trying to secure his spot in the Triple Crown is Dave in Dixie, who has not raced since finishing a fast closing sixth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). He has only made two starts, but could definitely run huge tomorrow and leap on to the Triple Crown Trail. His workouts have been brilliant, including a six furlong workout timed in 1:11 flat, handily.
Domonation, Macias, and Tango Tango complete the field. Domonation seems to be improving with every race, finishing second to Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes and then getting up for third in the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III) three weeks ago. Macias showed speed in winning the one mile Eddie Logan on the turf last December, so he could set the pace tomorrow, and if no one challenges him he could very well go wire to wire. Finally, Tango Tango comes off of an optional claiming race a month ago at Golden Gate Fields. I know little about him, but he definitely has a shot at the race.
So, my final decisions? I'm not sure. This race is wide open and any one of the seven entries could win. I guess if I was going to place a bet, which I'm not, I would put it on Caracortado. I can't see him being favored, but I also can't see why American Lion and Tiz Chrome are supposed to be better than he is.
So I suppose my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Macias
6 Domonation
7 Tango Tango
Of course, this should be close coming down to the final sixteenth. I expect Tix Chrome to have some good early speed, while American Lion waits just a few lengths off the pace. Macias could also put the pressure on up front, and Tango Tango could be anywhere. I'm going with Caracortado because he's been proven at this track and at this distance. He seems to be more experienced than American Lion and Tiz Chrome. I have selected Dave in Dixie to finish third, but the more I think about it, the more I think he could win. His workouts have been nothing short of spectacular. Finally, I just don't like Tiz Chrome here. He could be in the mix, but I just can't see him winning this race. I could be wrong, but that's my final thought.
LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is going to be a really great race to see, and a highly influential one at that. Blind Luck, two time grade I winner and Eclipse finalist last year makes her three year old debut. If she wins big tomorrow, and if she continues to win big, perhaps the Kentucky Derby is in her future.
But for now, it is the Las Virgenes Stakes, the first grade I race for three year olds this year. Six fillies have turned out for the race, and all have raced at Santa Anita before. Blind Luck is the obvious favorite, and appears to be almost unstoppable here. It’s hard to see her being beat, but if anyone can do it, it will be La Nez. She has won over this course before, has a third to the fine colt Caracortado, and has Mike Smith as her rider. In her most recent workout, she went five furlongs in a snappy :59 3/5.
Crisp, a daughter of El Corredor, should also run a fine race. She is coming off a win in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III) on January 10th. Her last workout was also pretty good, going six furlongs in 1:13 4/5.
Also coming from the Santa Ysabel is the runner up Evening Jewel and the third place finisher Switch. Both have better than average shots at grabbing second money, but don't seem to be quite good enough to handle Blind Luck. Still, Switch has turned in some incredible workouts, and could have a huge shot in this race, if she runs like she does in training.
Finally, there is Summer Games, who has only a maiden win to her credit. Of course, I always respect maiden winners, as you never know what they might do after they break their maiden. But, in this case, I would say that Summer Games doesn't quite look up to the task of taking on Blind Luck. Of course, it's wide open for second money, and Summer Games could snatch that away. Or, she could prove me wrong and come away with the victory. We'll find out tomorrow.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 La Nez
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Game
Of course, the results could very well be different from my selections above. It is very possible that La Nez could pull off the upset. The way I see it, any horse here is capable of taking the win, there is no real longshot here. But, unless there is a dead heat, which is unlikely, there can only be one winner. And I think the winner will be Blind Luck.
OTHER RACES OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND
Of course, the three races above aren't the only race this Saturday. There are many more good races, some of them for three year old colts.
The first race I will discuss is the Hallandale Beach Stakes on February 7th. The big name here is Interactif, a son of Broken Vow who was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and winner of two grade III races on the turf last year. His pedigree screams stamina, but there is a question as to whether he likes dirt. Of course, that will not be a concern on Sunday for the Hallandale Beach Stakes is run on the turf, but it could be a concern if Interactif is to try and become a Triple Crown horse. He will be ridden by regular rider Kent Desormeaux.
Of course, Interactif is not the only horse in the race. Seven additional horses have turned out to challenge him, and several of them look like they could steal the victory. Cat Park, a son of Tale of the Cat, is an allowance race winner and has placed in a couple of graded stakes on the turf. Dean's Kitten, a son of Kitten's Joy, is a stakes winner on the turf, although he doesn't seem to be quite as good as Interactif, finishing behind him on two different occasions. However, Cat Park will carry six pounds less than Interactif, and Dean's Kitten will carry two less. Not a huge difference, but it always helps.
Bim Bam, a son of Deputy Wild Cat, could also have a shot at the race. Since he switched to turf races, he has won the Arthur Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes last November and finished second in the Dania Beach Stakes on January 16th. Carrying 120 pounds, he could be in the mix.
Finally, we have Asphalt, Thunder Brew, Lucas Brady, and Our Champion. Of these, I would say that Asphalt has had the best workouts, Thunder Brew and Lucas Brady could run a big race, and Our Champion doesn't look quite good enough here. So, my final thoughts on this race are that Interactif looks like a solid favorite, while Cat Park, Bim Bam, and Asphalt could all run huge. If I was to bet a longshot, I would go with Asphalt. But I really like Interactif here.
Also on Saturday is a $48,000 allowance at Gulfstream Park. The race drew eight entries, with Overcommunication and Wildcat Frankie looking like the two big names. Rickyontherun, Enigmatic, Soldier Field, Bank the Eight, Barry's Money, and Tuvia's Force complete the field. Wildcat Frankie is coming off a second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at this same track, so he looks to be the deserving favorite. Overcommunication is a promising maiden winner who has the potential to step up to the task. His workouts have also been pretty good. Based off his works, Tuvia's Force could run a big one, and Bank the Eight looks good too. This race could mean absolutely nothing, but it's always good to watch those maiden winners. Final selection: Overcommunication, with Wildcat Frankie to finish second.
Finally, here is a list of horses who worked out over the past few days.
February 4th
D'Funnybone breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Tempted to Tapit went five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Conveyance went six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
February 5th
Fly Down breezed four furlongs in 50:00 flat at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Soaring Empire went five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Uptowncharlybrown breezed six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 at Tampa Bay Downs.
Amen Hallelujah breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Turbo Speed breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 at Penn National.
February 6th
Jackson Bend went four furlongs in :47 1/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Bulls and Bears went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
A Little Warm breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Lentenor went three furlongs in :36 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
Maximus Ruler breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Homeboykris went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
William's Kitten breezed four furlongs in :48 flat at Gulfstream Park.
Noble's Promise breezed three furlongs in :37 flat at Gulfstream Park.
posted by Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- FEBRUARY 5th, 2010
Well, it's hard to believe that it's been almost two weeks since a graded stakes race for three year old colts was run. But now, a couple of good Triple Crown Preps have finally arrived, along with the first grade I stakes for three year old fillies. It's going to be an exciting weekend, and to begin, I'll dive into the details of each prep, race by race, starting with the Whirlaway Stakes in New York.
WHIRLAWAY STAKES ---- Aqueduct, Race 3, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Inner dirt track)
The big question in this race is can Eightyfiveinafifty, the morning line favorite, stretch out to two turns, going a mile and a sixteenth against winners for the first time. Eightyfiveinafifty, a son of Forest Camp, broke his maiden on January 9th at this same track going six furlongs. Normally, this wouldn't be any big deal, except that he won by 17 1/4 lengths. Any horse who can win any race by that much should be watched closely.
If Eightyfiveinafifty does succeed in taking Saturday's race, he could become a very dangerous horse to deal with. If he can carry his blazing speed two turns, he could have New York all to himself. If he does win, he will head to the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) followed by the Wood Memorial (gr. I) as final preps for the Triple Crown. Of course, he still has to win on Saturday. His workouts say that he's ready, his most recent being a three furlongs breeze where he went in :34 1/5. Still, he'll have plenty of competition tomorrow. Let's see who his opponents are. . .
Five horses have turned out to try and stop him. They are, in alphabetical order, Afleet Again, Papa's Nice Cat, Peppi Knows, Three Day Rush, and Turf Melody.
Afleet Again, a son of Afleet Alex, was supplemented into the race. He is owned by Cash is King Stable, the same stable that raced Afleet Alex, winner of the 2005 Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, and third in the Kentucky Derby. Wouldn't it be nice if Cash is King could win another Triple Crown race with a son of Afleet Alex? Perhaps Afleet Again will win the Kentucky Derby, the race his sire couldn't quite capture.
Of course, Afleet Again comes with his own credentials. He began 2010 with a fifth place finish in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct, then shipped to Philidelphia Park and won an allowance race on January 17th, just fifteen days after the Count Fleet. Now, twenty days later, he turns out again to make his third start in five weeks. If he wins on Saturday, he will have proven that he can race three times in five weeks, just as the Triple Crown demands. So, should Afleet Again win, it will definately put him on the right track for the Triple Crown, and set him up perfectly for the Gotham Stakes. His workouts have also been excellent, his most recent being a four furlong breeze in :48 flat at Philidelphia Park. He should be ready.
Contender number two is Papa's Nice Cat, a son of One Nice Cat who is technically making his three year old debut. His last race was a runner up performance at Aqueduct on December 31st, so it was really more like his first start at three. He has been working out at Belmont Park, his most recent work being a four furlong breeze where he went :50 flat. Not quite the works that Afleet Again and Eightyfiveinafifty have been turning in, but solid nonetheless.
Contender number three is Peppi Knows, a gelding by Stephen Got Even, who has not raced since finishing second to Buddy's Saint in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct. So he has been proven over this track, and at two turns. His workouts have been unlike anything I've seen lately. His last two have been at one mile, both at Penn National in Pennsylvania. Still, they have been good works, and prior to them he worked five furlongs in :59 2/5 handily. So Peppi Knows seems ready to run a huge race.
Contender number four is Three Day Rush, a son of Harlan's Holiday who comes off of a six furlong allowance victory on January 9th. Prior to that he faded to finish fifth in the Iroquois (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. His workouts have been average workouts, nothing spectacular. It's possible that he may challenge Eightyfiveinafifty in the early going.
Contender number five, the last one, is Turf Melody, a son of Maria's Mon. Turf Melody has made eight starts already, which includes a win in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park to close out his two year old season. In his last race, he finished sixth in the grade III LeComte at Fair Grounds. His last three workouts were all at five furlongs, all have been 1:02 or slower, and he has had none since the LeComte. Not great workouts, but perhaps that was the plan.
Now that I've rattled off all of the entries, I shall give out my selections for the race. In the order I think they will finish. . .
1 Eightyfiveinafifty
2 Afleet Again
3 Peppi Knows
4 Three Day Rush
5 Turf Melody
6 Papa's Nice Cat
It appears to me that Eightyfiveinafifty is the deserving favorite, and that he should be able to carry his speed the over the distance. I have selected Afleet Again to finish second, due partly to his workouts. Peppi Knows certainly has class, finishing second to Buddy's Saint, and he could very well win this race. Three Day Rush will likely race close to the lead and tire in the final furlong, while Turf Melody may just not be good enough. Finally, Papa's Nice Cat will most likely be towards the rear at the conclusion of the race, not because he is a bad horse, but because the others seem to be just a bit better. Still, he's run well at this track, so it is very possible that he could surprise me and run very well. That concludes my analysis on the Whirlaway Stakes. Now I shall move on to the. . .
ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES (gr. II) ---- Santa Anita, Race 8, February 6th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This race was perhaps the hardest to try and figure out for this weekend, and I'm still not sure that I got it right. The two favorites, American Lion and Tiz Chrome, have never started in a two turn race, and every other horse in the field brings credentials that say "I can win this race!".
It is a toss up between American Lion and Tiz Chrome on which will finish in front of the other. They are both by Tiznow, twice winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic and both times by a nose. This says that Tiznow had some stamina, the ability to stay at the top of his game for a long time, and great courage. Hopefully he has passed this on to American Lion and Tiz Chrome. Getting back to those two, it would appear that American Lion has the slight advantage, but Tiz Chrome has the ability as well. American Lion has lost one race, while Tiz Chrome has lost none. On February 1st, both colts worked five furlongs, with Tiz Chrome finishing up in :59 1/5 handily while American Lion went in 1:00 handily. Based on their workouts alone, it would seem that Tiz Chrome is faster, and perhaps he is, but I believe that American Lion can run farther than the former can. Both of their pedigrees are good ones, but I give the slight edge to American Lion in this catagory. American Lion became a grade III winner after winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, while Tiz Chrome won the six and a half furlong Stuka Stakes in 1:14 2/5, which happens to be only 1 2/5 seconds off of the world record set by seven year old Sabertooth five years ago. So, to sum it all up, both of the favorites have the potential to become excellent horses, and both have the talent to win tomorrow.
On the other hand, there are other horses in this race, five to be exact. And they include the undefeated Caracortado, winner of all four of his starts. This is a big step up for him, but at least he's proven on this track at this distance. His pedigree isn't anything to write home about, but there is certainly nothing wrong with it. He could definitely threaten the big two.
Also trying to secure his spot in the Triple Crown is Dave in Dixie, who has not raced since finishing a fast closing sixth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). He has only made two starts, but could definitely run huge tomorrow and leap on to the Triple Crown Trail. His workouts have been brilliant, including a six furlong workout timed in 1:11 flat, handily.
Domonation, Macias, and Tango Tango complete the field. Domonation seems to be improving with every race, finishing second to Tiz Chrome in the Stuka Stakes and then getting up for third in the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III) three weeks ago. Macias showed speed in winning the one mile Eddie Logan on the turf last December, so he could set the pace tomorrow, and if no one challenges him he could very well go wire to wire. Finally, Tango Tango comes off of an optional claiming race a month ago at Golden Gate Fields. I know little about him, but he definitely has a shot at the race.
So, my final decisions? I'm not sure. This race is wide open and any one of the seven entries could win. I guess if I was going to place a bet, which I'm not, I would put it on Caracortado. I can't see him being favored, but I also can't see why American Lion and Tiz Chrome are supposed to be better than he is.
So I suppose my final selections are. . .
1 Caracortado
2 American Lion
3 Dave in Dixie
4 Tiz Chrome
5 Macias
6 Domonation
7 Tango Tango
Of course, this should be close coming down to the final sixteenth. I expect Tix Chrome to have some good early speed, while American Lion waits just a few lengths off the pace. Macias could also put the pressure on up front, and Tango Tango could be anywhere. I'm going with Caracortado because he's been proven at this track and at this distance. He seems to be more experienced than American Lion and Tiz Chrome. I have selected Dave in Dixie to finish third, but the more I think about it, the more I think he could win. His workouts have been nothing short of spectacular. Finally, I just don't like Tiz Chrome here. He could be in the mix, but I just can't see him winning this race. I could be wrong, but that's my final thought.
LAS VIRGENES STAKES (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 4, February 6th
8 Furlongs (Synthetic)
This is going to be a really great race to see, and a highly influential one at that. Blind Luck, two time grade I winner and Eclipse finalist last year makes her three year old debut. If she wins big tomorrow, and if she continues to win big, perhaps the Kentucky Derby is in her future.
But for now, it is the Las Virgenes Stakes, the first grade I race for three year olds this year. Six fillies have turned out for the race, and all have raced at Santa Anita before. Blind Luck is the obvious favorite, and appears to be almost unstoppable here. It’s hard to see her being beat, but if anyone can do it, it will be La Nez. She has won over this course before, has a third to the fine colt Caracortado, and has Mike Smith as her rider. In her most recent workout, she went five furlongs in a snappy :59 3/5.
Crisp, a daughter of El Corredor, should also run a fine race. She is coming off a win in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III) on January 10th. Her last workout was also pretty good, going six furlongs in 1:13 4/5.
Also coming from the Santa Ysabel is the runner up Evening Jewel and the third place finisher Switch. Both have better than average shots at grabbing second money, but don't seem to be quite good enough to handle Blind Luck. Still, Switch has turned in some incredible workouts, and could have a huge shot in this race, if she runs like she does in training.
Finally, there is Summer Games, who has only a maiden win to her credit. Of course, I always respect maiden winners, as you never know what they might do after they break their maiden. But, in this case, I would say that Summer Games doesn't quite look up to the task of taking on Blind Luck. Of course, it's wide open for second money, and Summer Games could snatch that away. Or, she could prove me wrong and come away with the victory. We'll find out tomorrow.
So my final selections are. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 La Nez
3 Switch
4 Crisp
5 Evening Jewel
6 Summer Game
Of course, the results could very well be different from my selections above. It is very possible that La Nez could pull off the upset. The way I see it, any horse here is capable of taking the win, there is no real longshot here. But, unless there is a dead heat, which is unlikely, there can only be one winner. And I think the winner will be Blind Luck.
OTHER RACES OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND
Of course, the three races above aren't the only race this Saturday. There are many more good races, some of them for three year old colts.
The first race I will discuss is the Hallandale Beach Stakes on February 7th. The big name here is Interactif, a son of Broken Vow who was third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf and winner of two grade III races on the turf last year. His pedigree screams stamina, but there is a question as to whether he likes dirt. Of course, that will not be a concern on Sunday for the Hallandale Beach Stakes is run on the turf, but it could be a concern if Interactif is to try and become a Triple Crown horse. He will be ridden by regular rider Kent Desormeaux.
Of course, Interactif is not the only horse in the race. Seven additional horses have turned out to challenge him, and several of them look like they could steal the victory. Cat Park, a son of Tale of the Cat, is an allowance race winner and has placed in a couple of graded stakes on the turf. Dean's Kitten, a son of Kitten's Joy, is a stakes winner on the turf, although he doesn't seem to be quite as good as Interactif, finishing behind him on two different occasions. However, Cat Park will carry six pounds less than Interactif, and Dean's Kitten will carry two less. Not a huge difference, but it always helps.
Bim Bam, a son of Deputy Wild Cat, could also have a shot at the race. Since he switched to turf races, he has won the Arthur Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes last November and finished second in the Dania Beach Stakes on January 16th. Carrying 120 pounds, he could be in the mix.
Finally, we have Asphalt, Thunder Brew, Lucas Brady, and Our Champion. Of these, I would say that Asphalt has had the best workouts, Thunder Brew and Lucas Brady could run a big race, and Our Champion doesn't look quite good enough here. So, my final thoughts on this race are that Interactif looks like a solid favorite, while Cat Park, Bim Bam, and Asphalt could all run huge. If I was to bet a longshot, I would go with Asphalt. But I really like Interactif here.
Also on Saturday is a $48,000 allowance at Gulfstream Park. The race drew eight entries, with Overcommunication and Wildcat Frankie looking like the two big names. Rickyontherun, Enigmatic, Soldier Field, Bank the Eight, Barry's Money, and Tuvia's Force complete the field. Wildcat Frankie is coming off a second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at this same track, so he looks to be the deserving favorite. Overcommunication is a promising maiden winner who has the potential to step up to the task. His workouts have also been pretty good. Based off his works, Tuvia's Force could run a big one, and Bank the Eight looks good too. This race could mean absolutely nothing, but it's always good to watch those maiden winners. Final selection: Overcommunication, with Wildcat Frankie to finish second.
Finally, here is a list of horses who worked out over the past few days.
February 4th
D'Funnybone breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Tempted to Tapit went five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
Conveyance went six furlongs in 1:13 1/5 handily at Santa Anita Park.
February 5th
Fly Down breezed four furlongs in 50:00 flat at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Soaring Empire went five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Uptowncharlybrown breezed six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 at Tampa Bay Downs.
Amen Hallelujah breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Gulfstream Park.
Turbo Speed breezed four furlongs in :49 4/5 at Penn National.
February 6th
Jackson Bend went four furlongs in :47 1/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Bulls and Bears went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
A Little Warm breezed five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Lentenor went three furlongs in :36 4/5 handily at Palm Meadows Training Center.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
Maximus Ruler breezed four furlongs in :48 1/5 at Fair Grounds.
Homeboykris went four furlongs in :47 4/5 handily at Gulfstream Park.
William's Kitten breezed four furlongs in :48 flat at Gulfstream Park.
Noble's Promise breezed three furlongs in :37 flat at Gulfstream Park.
posted by Keelerman
Thursday, February 04, 2010
THE TWENTY, as of February 3rd, 2010
1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
Just keeps working down in Florida patiently waiting for the Fountain of Youth. He should be a fresh horse by the time it rolls around. His pedigree says stamina, so he'll be keeping the #1 spot until someone beats him.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
It looks as though he’ll be waiting for the San Felipe in March, so until then there’s not much to say about him. Bob Baffert nominated him to the UAE Derby, which was interesting.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
If all goes well, he’ll make his next start in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. His workouts have been good, and it looks like he’ll run huge.
4. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
I just love the fact that he was taken out of training for couple of months. It gives him some time to grow without the stress of training and prepare him for the Triple Crown.
5. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Couldn’t quite get the win in the Holy Bull after racing wide the whole way, but he should definitely improve in his next race. Pedigree is still a concern.
6. DRYFLY
No information lately, but I expect him to run well in the Southwest Stakes, should he start. I always respect a horse ridden by Calvin Borel.
7. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
All set to go in the February 6th Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. It will be his first two turn test, and he will face some horses with excellent class. Whether he moves up or down depends on this race.
8. RON THE GREEK
With the Louisiana Derby moved to five weeks before the Kentucky Derby and changed to a mile and an eighth in distance, Ron the Greek is on the right track. He literally appeared from nowhere in the LeComte, with an explosive late run. Nice workout on February 3rd.
9. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
This horse is sitting on a keg of dynamite, just waiting to shoot him on to the top of the Triple Crown picture. If he were to try the synthetics, or even ship out east and try something on real dirt, he could really turn into something special.
10. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
Right now, the Kentucky Oaks is her goal, but that may change if she continues to dominate the fillies. Entering her in a turf race, even if it did get rained on to the dirt, was an interesting move.
11. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
Will try to grab her third grade I win in the Las Virgenes Stakes on Saturday. If she keeps running well, she looks like she could be a Santa Anita Derby horse.
12. CONVEYANCE Bob Baffert
The latest information on this one is that he is a very pretty grey and that he may be shipped to Dubai for the UAE Derby. His trainer, Bob Baffert, believes that he may be better on dirt. However, we may not find out until the Kentucky Derby.
13. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
His pedigree looks like a Triple Crown pedigree, but time will tell if he can go a distance. It would make sense to try him in the Hutcheson Stakes on Fountain of Youth day, but it seems unlikely.
14. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed bin Suroor
It is going to be very hard to figure out how good he is when he is racing in Dubai, especially since the new track out there is synthetic. But he could very well be special.
15. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
He ran a pretty good race in the Holy Bull, dropping back to one turn for his three year old debut. Expect a big performance in his next two turn start.
16. AFLEET EXPRESS Afleet Alex - ???, ??? Steve Asmussen
Finished second on January 30th to General Maximus, but it seems like he needs more distance. Maybe he’ll go for it in the Fountain of Youth.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
He hasn't done anything since his second place finish in the CashCall Futurity. At this point, he doesn't quite look like a Triple Crown horse, but he could step up and prove me wrong.
18. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
Unfortunately, he was scratched by the vet from the January 31st allowance race, won by Drosselmeyer. Hopefully he’ll be okay, but he lost his prep race for the Fountain of Youth.
19. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor – Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet
Won the allowance race from which Pulsion scratched. He wasn’t hugely impressive, but he could improve off that race. I expect him to return in the Fountain of Youth.
20. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
Very hard to keep him in the top twenty when I don’t even know what state he’s in. Every time I start to take him off I remember his maiden win at Churchill Downs. Maybe he’ll race soon.
NOTABLE OTHER HORSES
BACKTALK Sanford winner just isn’t on track. Anticipating his return.
CONNEMARA Didn’t quite get it done in the California Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Waiting until he races before I move him up.
FLY BY PHIL We’ll have to wait for his next start, but he’s won on dirt.
A PLUS TOPPER On here because of his maiden win.
OUTQUEST On here because of his maiden win.
LAUS DEO Won the Count Fleet at Aqueduct, perhaps he’ll run in the Gotham.
STAY PUT May start in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Watch out.
A LITTLE WARM He’ll wait for the Hutcheson, then maybe the Florida Derby.
AIKENITE Didn’t fire in the Holy Bull.
LENTENOR Barbaro’s full brother who has broken his maiden on turf.
MAXIMUS RULER It looks like he just doesn’t have the stamina. We’ll see.
DROSSELMEYER He will get his class tested in the FOY, should he start.
GENERAL MAXIMUS He has got the speed, but can he carry it a distance?
UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN Look out Florida colts!
KERA’S KITTEN He looks good for the Lane’s End.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY If he wins the Whirlaway on Saturday, watch out.
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
HOMEBOYKRIS Seems to be a sprinter.
TIZ CHROME Gets his shot at a stakes race on Saturday.
Among other Triple Crown news, the main headline is that Holy Bull winner Winslow Homer is off the Triple Crown trail due to a stress fracture in one of his legs. This is very unfortunate, as he is a fine colt, but he should make a return to the races in the summer.
Also off the trail is Pisciteli, who has suffered a bone bruise and will be off for several months. This is the reason for his last place finish in the Holy Bull, as he was eased after three eighths of a mile. However, he should be back this summer.
Finally, there are several good races coming up on the 6th, with Eightyfiftyandafive making his two turn debut in the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct, American Lion, Tiz Chrome, and Caracortado will battle it out in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, and Blind Luck will take on five other fillies in the grade I Las Virgenes Stakes at Santa Anita, including La Nez and Crisp. It’s going to be an exciting and influential Saturday.
Among workouts. . .
February 2nd
Uh Oh Bango worked five furlongs in 1:03 1/5 handily at Turf Paradise.
Dublin breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat at Oaklawn Park, the fastest of six workouts at that distance.
February 3rd
Thank U Philippe breezed four furlongs in :49 1/5 at Calder Race Course.
Ron the Greek breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
Concord Point worked seven furlongs in 1:25 4/5 handily at Santa Anita.
Eightyfiveandafifty worked three furlongs in :34 1/5 handily at Aqueduct.
-Keelerman
Just keeps working down in Florida patiently waiting for the Fountain of Youth. He should be a fresh horse by the time it rolls around. His pedigree says stamina, so he'll be keeping the #1 spot until someone beats him.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
It looks as though he’ll be waiting for the San Felipe in March, so until then there’s not much to say about him. Bob Baffert nominated him to the UAE Derby, which was interesting.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
If all goes well, he’ll make his next start in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. His workouts have been good, and it looks like he’ll run huge.
4. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
I just love the fact that he was taken out of training for couple of months. It gives him some time to grow without the stress of training and prepare him for the Triple Crown.
5. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Couldn’t quite get the win in the Holy Bull after racing wide the whole way, but he should definitely improve in his next race. Pedigree is still a concern.
6. DRYFLY
No information lately, but I expect him to run well in the Southwest Stakes, should he start. I always respect a horse ridden by Calvin Borel.
7. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
All set to go in the February 6th Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita. It will be his first two turn test, and he will face some horses with excellent class. Whether he moves up or down depends on this race.
8. RON THE GREEK
With the Louisiana Derby moved to five weeks before the Kentucky Derby and changed to a mile and an eighth in distance, Ron the Greek is on the right track. He literally appeared from nowhere in the LeComte, with an explosive late run. Nice workout on February 3rd.
9. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
This horse is sitting on a keg of dynamite, just waiting to shoot him on to the top of the Triple Crown picture. If he were to try the synthetics, or even ship out east and try something on real dirt, he could really turn into something special.
10. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
Right now, the Kentucky Oaks is her goal, but that may change if she continues to dominate the fillies. Entering her in a turf race, even if it did get rained on to the dirt, was an interesting move.
11. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
Will try to grab her third grade I win in the Las Virgenes Stakes on Saturday. If she keeps running well, she looks like she could be a Santa Anita Derby horse.
12. CONVEYANCE Bob Baffert
The latest information on this one is that he is a very pretty grey and that he may be shipped to Dubai for the UAE Derby. His trainer, Bob Baffert, believes that he may be better on dirt. However, we may not find out until the Kentucky Derby.
13. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
His pedigree looks like a Triple Crown pedigree, but time will tell if he can go a distance. It would make sense to try him in the Hutcheson Stakes on Fountain of Youth day, but it seems unlikely.
14. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed bin Suroor
It is going to be very hard to figure out how good he is when he is racing in Dubai, especially since the new track out there is synthetic. But he could very well be special.
15. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
He ran a pretty good race in the Holy Bull, dropping back to one turn for his three year old debut. Expect a big performance in his next two turn start.
16. AFLEET EXPRESS Afleet Alex - ???, ??? Steve Asmussen
Finished second on January 30th to General Maximus, but it seems like he needs more distance. Maybe he’ll go for it in the Fountain of Youth.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
He hasn't done anything since his second place finish in the CashCall Futurity. At this point, he doesn't quite look like a Triple Crown horse, but he could step up and prove me wrong.
18. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
Unfortunately, he was scratched by the vet from the January 31st allowance race, won by Drosselmeyer. Hopefully he’ll be okay, but he lost his prep race for the Fountain of Youth.
19. DROSSELMEYER Distorted Humor – Golden Ballet, by Moscow Ballet
Won the allowance race from which Pulsion scratched. He wasn’t hugely impressive, but he could improve off that race. I expect him to return in the Fountain of Youth.
20. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
Very hard to keep him in the top twenty when I don’t even know what state he’s in. Every time I start to take him off I remember his maiden win at Churchill Downs. Maybe he’ll race soon.
NOTABLE OTHER HORSES
BACKTALK Sanford winner just isn’t on track. Anticipating his return.
CONNEMARA Didn’t quite get it done in the California Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Waiting until he races before I move him up.
FLY BY PHIL We’ll have to wait for his next start, but he’s won on dirt.
A PLUS TOPPER On here because of his maiden win.
OUTQUEST On here because of his maiden win.
LAUS DEO Won the Count Fleet at Aqueduct, perhaps he’ll run in the Gotham.
STAY PUT May start in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Watch out.
A LITTLE WARM He’ll wait for the Hutcheson, then maybe the Florida Derby.
AIKENITE Didn’t fire in the Holy Bull.
LENTENOR Barbaro’s full brother who has broken his maiden on turf.
MAXIMUS RULER It looks like he just doesn’t have the stamina. We’ll see.
DROSSELMEYER He will get his class tested in the FOY, should he start.
GENERAL MAXIMUS He has got the speed, but can he carry it a distance?
UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN Look out Florida colts!
KERA’S KITTEN He looks good for the Lane’s End.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY If he wins the Whirlaway on Saturday, watch out.
D’FUNNYBONE Seems to be a sprinter.
HOMEBOYKRIS Seems to be a sprinter.
TIZ CHROME Gets his shot at a stakes race on Saturday.
Among other Triple Crown news, the main headline is that Holy Bull winner Winslow Homer is off the Triple Crown trail due to a stress fracture in one of his legs. This is very unfortunate, as he is a fine colt, but he should make a return to the races in the summer.
Also off the trail is Pisciteli, who has suffered a bone bruise and will be off for several months. This is the reason for his last place finish in the Holy Bull, as he was eased after three eighths of a mile. However, he should be back this summer.
Finally, there are several good races coming up on the 6th, with Eightyfiftyandafive making his two turn debut in the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct, American Lion, Tiz Chrome, and Caracortado will battle it out in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita, and Blind Luck will take on five other fillies in the grade I Las Virgenes Stakes at Santa Anita, including La Nez and Crisp. It’s going to be an exciting and influential Saturday.
Among workouts. . .
February 2nd
Uh Oh Bango worked five furlongs in 1:03 1/5 handily at Turf Paradise.
Dublin breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat at Oaklawn Park, the fastest of six workouts at that distance.
February 3rd
Thank U Philippe breezed four furlongs in :49 1/5 at Calder Race Course.
Ron the Greek breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 at Fair Grounds.
Concord Point worked seven furlongs in 1:25 4/5 handily at Santa Anita.
Eightyfiveandafifty worked three furlongs in :34 1/5 handily at Aqueduct.
-Keelerman
Friday, January 22, 2010
THE TWENTY, as of January 22nd, 2010
1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
Has yet to do anything wrong, just keeps moving along and doing what is asked of him.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
I really like the addition of blinkers. I can't wait for his next race. I would love to see him start in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, or even the San Vincente Stakes, but if I recall, it's the San Felipe Stakes in March that will be next.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
I can't see him coming out for a race until the Fountain of Youth. Some have said that he needs to learn to rate off the pace, but I see this as a good thing; if he is truly good enough it won't matter.
4. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
If he fires in the Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday, he'll move up a spot. If he loses, then he's going to move down. Worked a bullet five furlongs in :59.30 at Palm Meadows on January 16th. He seems to be ready.
5. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I'm just hoping that he's over his problems and can come back successfully. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said that this is the horse that will make him famous. Let's hope he's right. The Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on February 15th seems to be just right for him.
6. DRYFLY
Just got moved up off of his win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. He was ridden by Calvin Borel. Oaklawn Park seems to be a hot place to train good horses, turning out Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Gayego, and Papa Clem since 2004.
7. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
Currently, he's made three starts, and has won a grade III race during which he raced very greenly. I would like to see him prep in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, or maybe even ship east and try something out here. I don't really care as long as he starts in February.
8. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
Still waiting for news on this one, I would like to see him race on the synthetics soon. If he was to ship east and try something on real dirt, he could shoot way up the list. Love his pedigree, seems to say stamina, bold and underlined.
9. CONVEYANCE Bob Baffert
Got his big test in the San Rafael Stakes on the 16th, and passed it with flying colors. Now how about a nice layoff leading up to the Sham Stakes, and then another nice gap leading up to the Santa Anita Derby? Of course, this would mean he would meet Lookin' At Lucky, so maybe Bob Baffert will ship Conveyance out east, which would be great.
10. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
Successfully made her three year old debut, winning the rained off the turf Sweetest Chant Stakes down at Gulfstream Park. So now she's proven in the slop. I just have this feeling that she could be something special.
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Hopefully, he'll stick to the Louisiana route, maybe ship to Fair Grounds if he hasn't already, and try for the Louisiana Derby. I have got to find out what he's doing right now.
12. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
This appears to be an extremely courageous colt. He finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after leading with only a sixteenth-of-a-mile left to be run. He was only beaten a length. That was followed by a runner up performance in the CashCall Futurity, so it seems that he can run well. Needs to make his three year old debut soon, maybe the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
13. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed bin Suroor
The upset winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is currently out in Dubai, awaiting his three year old debut at the new Meydan race course. Unfortunately, the new track is synthetic, so we won't have any idea how he runs on dirt until the Derby, if he does get there.
14. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
I'm fairly surprised that she did not get the Eclipse Award for Champion 2yo Filly. She'll have her chance this year, however. He win in the Starlet Stakes was incredible, and I'm looking for to seeing her in the Las Virgenes Stakes in February, should she start.
15. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
On this list just because of his maiden win back in early November. Very impressive, but he really needs to start again. Another horse that I need to learn more about.
16. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
Needs to run well in the Holy Bull stakes on Saturday. A third would be fine, but it would be much better if he ran a close second, or even managed to grab the victory. The latter would move him up many spots.
17. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister Steve Asmussen
Didn't quiet run the way I hoped in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Now he needs to prove that he can handle two turns, which he has failed to do so far. Maybe he will ship to Louisiana, or New York, somewhere where he could slowly build up to the Triple Crown.
18. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
No news on this one since his poor showing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, he came out of that race with a pretty good cut, so I'm sure he's being given some time off. Needs to stay in southern California and take on Lookin at Lucky again.
19. HOMEBOYKRIS Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
Totally didn't fire in the Remsen Stakes, trailing victorious Buddy's Saint by at least ten lengths, if not more. If he is to move up any, he needs to really run tomorrow in the Holy Bull. A victory over Jackson Bend would be huge.
20. D'FUNNYBONE D'Wildcat - Elbow, by Woodman Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
As good as he is from six to seven furlongs, he seems to be just to much of a sprinter to stretch out to the Triple Crown distances. Being beaten nearly thirty lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile while finishing last is a lot to blame on disliking synthetics.
NOTABLE OTHER HORSES
BACKTALK
CONNEMARA
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
AFLEET EXPRESS
FLY BY PHIL
A PLUS TOPPER
SPEEDY MON
OUTQUEST
LAUS DEO
STAY PUT
A LITTLE WARM
AIKENITE
LENTENOR
Among other notes, Brake Lights, who seemed to have an unlimited future after a very impressive maiden race at Aqueduct, has been injured and is off the Triple Crown Trail. A bone chip in his left front ankle is the culprit. And to top that off, Take Control, the first foal of Azeri, has injured himself as well. A shin problem is the issue here. Both incidents were very unfortunate, but hopefully, they will both return to good form and become classy stakes winners later in the year.
As for future racing, it appears that A Little Warm, winner of the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 9th, will aim for the February 20th Hutcheson Stakes. If he should win this, he could then wait another month for the Florida Derby. If he should win that, then he would have had the perfect Triple Crown Trail in my mind, slowly building up the distances. If he can go a mile-and-a-half, he could be the one to sweep the Triple Crown. But this is saying a lot, and the only thing to go on is his six furlong ungraded stakes win. But it's fun to think about.
Another little notice that’s sure be mentioned, 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, has a full brother named Letenor who broke his maiden in his third attempt on January 20th. He joins Barbaro, as well as Barbaro's other full brother, Nicanor, as a winner on turf. There has been talk about the Triple Crown, but for now, it sounds like Letenor will stick to the turf and perhaps try a stakes race somewhere.
And finally, the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds could quite possibly be a very important prep, as Friesian Fire won that race last year and ended up being the favorite for that year's Kentucky Derby. I won't dive into a deep analysis of the race, but glancing at the entries, Maximus Ruler looks good, as does Worldy and Citrus Kid. The name Rock Hard leaps out at me, and I suddenly can't help but think he'll run well.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
Has yet to do anything wrong, just keeps moving along and doing what is asked of him.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
I really like the addition of blinkers. I can't wait for his next race. I would love to see him start in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, or even the San Vincente Stakes, but if I recall, it's the San Felipe Stakes in March that will be next.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
I can't see him coming out for a race until the Fountain of Youth. Some have said that he needs to learn to rate off the pace, but I see this as a good thing; if he is truly good enough it won't matter.
4. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
If he fires in the Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday, he'll move up a spot. If he loses, then he's going to move down. Worked a bullet five furlongs in :59.30 at Palm Meadows on January 16th. He seems to be ready.
5. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I'm just hoping that he's over his problems and can come back successfully. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said that this is the horse that will make him famous. Let's hope he's right. The Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on February 15th seems to be just right for him.
6. DRYFLY
Just got moved up off of his win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. He was ridden by Calvin Borel. Oaklawn Park seems to be a hot place to train good horses, turning out Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Gayego, and Papa Clem since 2004.
7. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
Currently, he's made three starts, and has won a grade III race during which he raced very greenly. I would like to see him prep in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, or maybe even ship east and try something out here. I don't really care as long as he starts in February.
8. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
Still waiting for news on this one, I would like to see him race on the synthetics soon. If he was to ship east and try something on real dirt, he could shoot way up the list. Love his pedigree, seems to say stamina, bold and underlined.
9. CONVEYANCE Bob Baffert
Got his big test in the San Rafael Stakes on the 16th, and passed it with flying colors. Now how about a nice layoff leading up to the Sham Stakes, and then another nice gap leading up to the Santa Anita Derby? Of course, this would mean he would meet Lookin' At Lucky, so maybe Bob Baffert will ship Conveyance out east, which would be great.
10. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
Successfully made her three year old debut, winning the rained off the turf Sweetest Chant Stakes down at Gulfstream Park. So now she's proven in the slop. I just have this feeling that she could be something special.
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Hopefully, he'll stick to the Louisiana route, maybe ship to Fair Grounds if he hasn't already, and try for the Louisiana Derby. I have got to find out what he's doing right now.
12. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
This appears to be an extremely courageous colt. He finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after leading with only a sixteenth-of-a-mile left to be run. He was only beaten a length. That was followed by a runner up performance in the CashCall Futurity, so it seems that he can run well. Needs to make his three year old debut soon, maybe the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
13. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed bin Suroor
The upset winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is currently out in Dubai, awaiting his three year old debut at the new Meydan race course. Unfortunately, the new track is synthetic, so we won't have any idea how he runs on dirt until the Derby, if he does get there.
14. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
I'm fairly surprised that she did not get the Eclipse Award for Champion 2yo Filly. She'll have her chance this year, however. He win in the Starlet Stakes was incredible, and I'm looking for to seeing her in the Las Virgenes Stakes in February, should she start.
15. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
On this list just because of his maiden win back in early November. Very impressive, but he really needs to start again. Another horse that I need to learn more about.
16. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
Needs to run well in the Holy Bull stakes on Saturday. A third would be fine, but it would be much better if he ran a close second, or even managed to grab the victory. The latter would move him up many spots.
17. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister Steve Asmussen
Didn't quiet run the way I hoped in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Now he needs to prove that he can handle two turns, which he has failed to do so far. Maybe he will ship to Louisiana, or New York, somewhere where he could slowly build up to the Triple Crown.
18. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
No news on this one since his poor showing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, he came out of that race with a pretty good cut, so I'm sure he's being given some time off. Needs to stay in southern California and take on Lookin at Lucky again.
19. HOMEBOYKRIS Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
Totally didn't fire in the Remsen Stakes, trailing victorious Buddy's Saint by at least ten lengths, if not more. If he is to move up any, he needs to really run tomorrow in the Holy Bull. A victory over Jackson Bend would be huge.
20. D'FUNNYBONE D'Wildcat - Elbow, by Woodman Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
As good as he is from six to seven furlongs, he seems to be just to much of a sprinter to stretch out to the Triple Crown distances. Being beaten nearly thirty lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile while finishing last is a lot to blame on disliking synthetics.
NOTABLE OTHER HORSES
BACKTALK
CONNEMARA
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
AFLEET EXPRESS
FLY BY PHIL
A PLUS TOPPER
SPEEDY MON
OUTQUEST
LAUS DEO
STAY PUT
A LITTLE WARM
AIKENITE
LENTENOR
Among other notes, Brake Lights, who seemed to have an unlimited future after a very impressive maiden race at Aqueduct, has been injured and is off the Triple Crown Trail. A bone chip in his left front ankle is the culprit. And to top that off, Take Control, the first foal of Azeri, has injured himself as well. A shin problem is the issue here. Both incidents were very unfortunate, but hopefully, they will both return to good form and become classy stakes winners later in the year.
As for future racing, it appears that A Little Warm, winner of the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 9th, will aim for the February 20th Hutcheson Stakes. If he should win this, he could then wait another month for the Florida Derby. If he should win that, then he would have had the perfect Triple Crown Trail in my mind, slowly building up the distances. If he can go a mile-and-a-half, he could be the one to sweep the Triple Crown. But this is saying a lot, and the only thing to go on is his six furlong ungraded stakes win. But it's fun to think about.
Another little notice that’s sure be mentioned, 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, has a full brother named Letenor who broke his maiden in his third attempt on January 20th. He joins Barbaro, as well as Barbaro's other full brother, Nicanor, as a winner on turf. There has been talk about the Triple Crown, but for now, it sounds like Letenor will stick to the turf and perhaps try a stakes race somewhere.
And finally, the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds could quite possibly be a very important prep, as Friesian Fire won that race last year and ended up being the favorite for that year's Kentucky Derby. I won't dive into a deep analysis of the race, but glancing at the entries, Maximus Ruler looks good, as does Worldy and Citrus Kid. The name Rock Hard leaps out at me, and I suddenly can't help but think he'll run well.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
Monday, January 18, 2010
KEELERMAN's TOP TWENTY - as of Jan 18, 2010
posted by Keelerman
THE TWENTY – as of Jan 18, 2010
1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
4. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
5. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
6. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
7. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
8. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
9. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Patrick L. Biancone
10. BRAKE LIGHTS Saint Liam - Miss Golden Circle, by Crafty Prospector ? McLaughlin
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
12. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
13. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
14. CONVEYANCE - ???, ???, by ??? Bob Baffert?
15. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed Bin Suroor
16. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mission - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
17. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
18. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister Steve Asmussen
19. D'FUNNYBONE D'Wildcat - Elbow, by Woodman Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
20. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - ???, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
THE TWENTY – as of Jan 18, 2010
1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
4. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
5. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
6. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
7. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
8. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
9. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Patrick L. Biancone
10. BRAKE LIGHTS Saint Liam - Miss Golden Circle, by Crafty Prospector ? McLaughlin
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
12. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
13. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
14. CONVEYANCE - ???, ???, by ??? Bob Baffert?
15. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed Bin Suroor
16. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mission - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
17. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
18. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister Steve Asmussen
19. D'FUNNYBONE D'Wildcat - Elbow, by Woodman Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
20. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - ???, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
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