Zo Impressive pulled off a 10-1 upset this afternoon in the $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park, holding off a stretch bid from Disposablepleasure to win the 56th running of the prestigious event by three-quarters of a length.
Ridden to victory by Rajiv Maragh, Zo Impressive broke alertly and quickly settled into the third position early on in the field of five, roughly two lengths behind pace-setting favorite Contested. Wildcat's Smile was right behind in second, followed by Believe You Can toward the inside in third. Disposablepleasure was content to trail the field early, but she was never more than four or five lengths off the lead.
Showing posts with label Believe You Can. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Believe You Can. Show all posts
Saturday, June 23, 2012
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- June 23rd, 2012
Compared to last Saturday, this afternoon's racing action may be a little on the light side. Nevertheless, there are plenty of intriguing races to keep an eye on, led by the $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park, in which the leading three-year-old fillies Believe You Can and Contested will square off in a battle for leadership of the division. Let's start handicapping!
Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I)
1 1/16th miles on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
The field size for this prestigious grade I event may be on the small side, but the race is definitely not small on talent. All told, the five runners have won eight stakes, six graded stakes, and a pair of grade Is -- in addition to placing in seven other stakes races.
The narrow morning line favorite at 7-5 is Contested, from the barn of Bob Baffert. A lightly raced but super-talented daughter of Ghostzapper, she brings a four-race win streak into the Mother Goose, culminating with a five-length victory in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) here at Belmont last time out. She certainly isn't a lock here -- after all, her superb Acorn effort may have been partly due to the fact that she set an uncontested pace over a speed-favoring track -- but she may simply be the fastest horse in the race, and shouldn't really have any trouble getting to the front.
The other top contender, at odds of 8-5 on the morning line, is Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) victory Believe You Can, who will be making her first start since claiming the Lilies on the day before the Kentucky Derby. Like Contested, Belive You Can possesses a great deal of natural speed, perhaps even enough to beat Contested to the early lead. However, she seems to be at her best rating just behind the early leader, a strategy she used with success in the Oaks, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her settle back and allow Contested to grab the early lead before moving up on the backstretch to apply some pressure. She's turned in a pair of :59 3/5 five-furlong breezes during the last couple of weeks, so it's clear that she's fit. She also has a victory over the Belmont Park main track, having won the Tempted Stakes (gr. III) here last fall. The only question is whether she is good enough to catch Contested in this one-turn race.
Of the other three fillies, the one with the best chance of pulling an upset is probably Zo Impressive. She's actually even less experienced than Contested, with only four starts under belt, but those four starts have yielded a pair of wins, as well as a pair of seconds in graded stakes company. Last time out, she finished five lengths behind Contested in the Acorn Stakes, but I thought she ran very well while attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track. Assuming no bias emerges at Belmont today, and assuming Believe You Can doesn't let Contested escape with an easy lead, I would expect to see Zo Impressive putting in a good rally at the finish.
Disposablepleasure, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, enters this race off of a second-place finish in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico. She was one of the early Kentucky Oaks favorites after winning the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct despite stumbling badly at the start, but she disappointed in her first two starts of the year, finishing fourth in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) and a distant third in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). However, she showed significant improvement in her third start of the year -- the above mentioned Black-Eyed Susan Stakes -- and rallied well to finish second despite a tough trip. Seeing that Pletcher won the Mother Goose last year with a filly coming off of a runner-up effort in the Black-Eyed Susan, I wouldn't be surprised if he can produce a similar result this year, especially with top jockey Ramon Dominguez in the saddle.
The last filly to discuss is the longshot Wildcat's Smile, a New York-bred filly that finished second to Disposablepleasure in the Demoiselle Stakes last year. She began 2012 at Aqueduct by winning a seven-furlong allowance race for state-breds before finishing a tiring third in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. She has trained well enough since then, and should appreciate the cutback to one-turn, but the distance of the Mother Goose may simply be a bit beyond her range.
My selections are:
1 Contested
2 Zo Impressive
3 Believe You Can
4 Disposablepleasure
These are admittedly uncreative selections, but I think that Believe You Can could find herself in the unenviable task of trying to put enough pressure on Contested while trying to save something for the homestretch. In her first start since that tough effort in the Kentucky Oaks, it wouldn't surprise me if she tires just a bit in the homestretch, allowing Zo Impressive to rally for the runner-up spot. But I am fairly confident that Contested will prove best yet again, seizing command of the division with another gate-to-wire victory.
Other Races of Note
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The highlight of the card is the $150,000 Hollywood Oaks (gr. II), where grade I winners Killer Graces, Eden's Moon, and Willa B Awesome will square off at a mile and a sixteenth. Each has virtues. Killer Graces won her grade I -- the Hollywood Starlet Stakes -- over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track, whereas Willa B Awesome and Eden's Moon have both done their best running on the Santa Anita dirt. Willa B Awesome has beaten both Eden's Moon and Killer Graces in the past, and is in good form, but her best races have come over the Santa Anita dirt track. Eden's Moon is probably the quickest filly in the race, and is trained by the masterful Bob Baffert, but is coming off of a last-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. Who you select is a matter of preference, but I won't be surprised to see Killer Graces in the winners circle following a return to her favorite racetrack. And if you like up-and-comers, don't count out Potesta, who broke her maiden by 11 1/2 lengths here at Hollywood last time out.
At Churchill Downs . . .
A pair of stakes races highlight the Saturday card, including the Debutante Stakes (gr. III) for two-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Blueeyesintherein, who broke her maiden in dominating fashion on May 31st, winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by 3 3/4 lengths. The runner-up, Shesakitty, is also entered in this spot even though she has yet to win a race, probably because she overcame a poor start to rally strongly in the homestretch. The additional distance in the Debutante, coupled with a hopefully cleaner start, could help her chances. Other logical contenders are Richie'slilcowgirl, a first-time out winner from Arlington Park; Quiet Sucess, who broke her maiden at Churchill on May 2nd; and debut winner Floral Sky.
The other stakes race on the card is the seven-furlong Kelly's Landing Stakes, won two years ago by eventual grade I winner Here Comes Ben. This year's edition has drawn a field of nine, in which Golden Frontier and Cal Nation are the two favorites. The first-mentioned colt is very lightly raced, having only four starts on his record, but he could not have looked better winning a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race here at Churchill on May 24th by 11 1/2 lengths. His final time of 1:15.68 was highly impressive, and he looks like a future graded stakes winner. As for Cal Nation, he made headlines in the winter of 2011 when he broke his maiden by 7 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park, but he subsequently failed to live up to expectations, and only found the winner's circle once during the remainder of the year. However, he did look good in his 2012 debut last month, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth by a neck, and he is eligible to improve in his second start of the year.
One other horse worth mentioning is Noble's Promise, who won the grade I Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) back in 2009. Since then, he has become a capable sprinter, winning the Aristides Stakes (gr. III) here at Churchill last year and performing moderately well in a number of other stakes. However, his form this year has not been very good at all, for he has not managed to finish better than third in four starts, and failed to hit the board in two stakes attempts. Perhaps he can reach back into his past and pull out another high-class effort later this afternoon, but it seems that age is beginning to catch up to him.
At Monmouth Park . . .
Sophomore fillies on the turf comprise the feature race of the card, the $100,000 Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) at a mile and a sixteenth. Nine entered, but two scratches have reduced the field size to seven. The morning line favorite is Somali Lemonade, winner of the J P Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland last fall. She's had a bit of trouble returning to form this year, as she could only manage a second in the Appalachian Stakes (gr. III) and a fourth in the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II), but this looks like an easy spot to get back on track, and she should have every chance at finding the winner's circle this time around.
Her main competition will likely come from Dancing Solo, a talented daughter of Giant's Causeway from the barn of Todd Pletcher. She enters this race off of an impressive victory in the Little Silver Stakes at Monmouth Park, in which she closed strongly to win by a length and a half. Time will tell if she is in the same class as Somali Lemonade, but I think she looks like a major contender.
Other major contenders include Zultanite, who finished five lengths in front of Somali Lemonade in the Sands Point Stakes; Glamour N Glory, the runner-up to Dancing Solo in the Little Silver Stakes; and Destiny's Child, a German-bred filly owned by Team Valor International that will be making her first start in the United States.
At Parx Racing . . .
A field of six, reduced from eight by two scratches, is set to start in the $150,000 Donald LeVine Memorial Handicap this afternoon. The morning line favorite is Golddigger's Boy, who has won five of his seven starts here at Parx, including last year's Donald LeVine. He's been in good form this year, and looks to have an excellent chance at adding another stakes victory to his record.
Toby's Corner may very well end up going off as the second choice, despite the fact that he has yet to win a race this year. Winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) in 2011, he went to the sidelines with an injury shortly thereafter, returning to the races earlier this year to finish third in both the General George Handicap (gr. II) and New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) before finishing seventh of nine in the Pimlico Special Stakes (gr. III). If he can regain his 2011 form, he could be a serious threat from off the pace.
Another obvious contender is Sloane Ranger, who won an allowance optional claiming race last time out while defeating Golddigger's Boy. A repeat of that performance could be sufficient to secure him the victory. Also intriguing is Ponzi Scheme, winner of the Decathlon Stakes at Monmouth Park last time out. True, he didn't beat much that day after many of the runners were involved in an accident, but he's got class, and he should appreciate the seven-furlong distance of this race.
-Keelerman
Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I)
1 1/16th miles on the Belmont Park dirt track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | Believe You Can | Rosie Napravnik |
| 2 | Contested | Javier Castellano |
| 3 | Disposablepleasure | Ramon Dominguez |
| 4 | Wildcat's Smile | Jose Lezcano |
| 5 | Zo Impressive | Rajiv Maragh |
The field size for this prestigious grade I event may be on the small side, but the race is definitely not small on talent. All told, the five runners have won eight stakes, six graded stakes, and a pair of grade Is -- in addition to placing in seven other stakes races.
The narrow morning line favorite at 7-5 is Contested, from the barn of Bob Baffert. A lightly raced but super-talented daughter of Ghostzapper, she brings a four-race win streak into the Mother Goose, culminating with a five-length victory in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) here at Belmont last time out. She certainly isn't a lock here -- after all, her superb Acorn effort may have been partly due to the fact that she set an uncontested pace over a speed-favoring track -- but she may simply be the fastest horse in the race, and shouldn't really have any trouble getting to the front.
The other top contender, at odds of 8-5 on the morning line, is Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) victory Believe You Can, who will be making her first start since claiming the Lilies on the day before the Kentucky Derby. Like Contested, Belive You Can possesses a great deal of natural speed, perhaps even enough to beat Contested to the early lead. However, she seems to be at her best rating just behind the early leader, a strategy she used with success in the Oaks, so I wouldn't be surprised to see her settle back and allow Contested to grab the early lead before moving up on the backstretch to apply some pressure. She's turned in a pair of :59 3/5 five-furlong breezes during the last couple of weeks, so it's clear that she's fit. She also has a victory over the Belmont Park main track, having won the Tempted Stakes (gr. III) here last fall. The only question is whether she is good enough to catch Contested in this one-turn race.
Of the other three fillies, the one with the best chance of pulling an upset is probably Zo Impressive. She's actually even less experienced than Contested, with only four starts under belt, but those four starts have yielded a pair of wins, as well as a pair of seconds in graded stakes company. Last time out, she finished five lengths behind Contested in the Acorn Stakes, but I thought she ran very well while attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track. Assuming no bias emerges at Belmont today, and assuming Believe You Can doesn't let Contested escape with an easy lead, I would expect to see Zo Impressive putting in a good rally at the finish.
Disposablepleasure, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, enters this race off of a second-place finish in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) at Pimlico. She was one of the early Kentucky Oaks favorites after winning the Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct despite stumbling badly at the start, but she disappointed in her first two starts of the year, finishing fourth in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II) and a distant third in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II). However, she showed significant improvement in her third start of the year -- the above mentioned Black-Eyed Susan Stakes -- and rallied well to finish second despite a tough trip. Seeing that Pletcher won the Mother Goose last year with a filly coming off of a runner-up effort in the Black-Eyed Susan, I wouldn't be surprised if he can produce a similar result this year, especially with top jockey Ramon Dominguez in the saddle.
The last filly to discuss is the longshot Wildcat's Smile, a New York-bred filly that finished second to Disposablepleasure in the Demoiselle Stakes last year. She began 2012 at Aqueduct by winning a seven-furlong allowance race for state-breds before finishing a tiring third in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. She has trained well enough since then, and should appreciate the cutback to one-turn, but the distance of the Mother Goose may simply be a bit beyond her range.
My selections are:
1 Contested
2 Zo Impressive
3 Believe You Can
4 Disposablepleasure
These are admittedly uncreative selections, but I think that Believe You Can could find herself in the unenviable task of trying to put enough pressure on Contested while trying to save something for the homestretch. In her first start since that tough effort in the Kentucky Oaks, it wouldn't surprise me if she tires just a bit in the homestretch, allowing Zo Impressive to rally for the runner-up spot. But I am fairly confident that Contested will prove best yet again, seizing command of the division with another gate-to-wire victory.
Other Races of Note
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
The highlight of the card is the $150,000 Hollywood Oaks (gr. II), where grade I winners Killer Graces, Eden's Moon, and Willa B Awesome will square off at a mile and a sixteenth. Each has virtues. Killer Graces won her grade I -- the Hollywood Starlet Stakes -- over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track, whereas Willa B Awesome and Eden's Moon have both done their best running on the Santa Anita dirt. Willa B Awesome has beaten both Eden's Moon and Killer Graces in the past, and is in good form, but her best races have come over the Santa Anita dirt track. Eden's Moon is probably the quickest filly in the race, and is trained by the masterful Bob Baffert, but is coming off of a last-place finish in the Kentucky Oaks. Who you select is a matter of preference, but I won't be surprised to see Killer Graces in the winners circle following a return to her favorite racetrack. And if you like up-and-comers, don't count out Potesta, who broke her maiden by 11 1/2 lengths here at Hollywood last time out.
At Churchill Downs . . .
A pair of stakes races highlight the Saturday card, including the Debutante Stakes (gr. III) for two-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Blueeyesintherein, who broke her maiden in dominating fashion on May 31st, winning a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight by 3 3/4 lengths. The runner-up, Shesakitty, is also entered in this spot even though she has yet to win a race, probably because she overcame a poor start to rally strongly in the homestretch. The additional distance in the Debutante, coupled with a hopefully cleaner start, could help her chances. Other logical contenders are Richie'slilcowgirl, a first-time out winner from Arlington Park; Quiet Sucess, who broke her maiden at Churchill on May 2nd; and debut winner Floral Sky.
The other stakes race on the card is the seven-furlong Kelly's Landing Stakes, won two years ago by eventual grade I winner Here Comes Ben. This year's edition has drawn a field of nine, in which Golden Frontier and Cal Nation are the two favorites. The first-mentioned colt is very lightly raced, having only four starts on his record, but he could not have looked better winning a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race here at Churchill on May 24th by 11 1/2 lengths. His final time of 1:15.68 was highly impressive, and he looks like a future graded stakes winner. As for Cal Nation, he made headlines in the winter of 2011 when he broke his maiden by 7 3/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park, but he subsequently failed to live up to expectations, and only found the winner's circle once during the remainder of the year. However, he did look good in his 2012 debut last month, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth by a neck, and he is eligible to improve in his second start of the year.
One other horse worth mentioning is Noble's Promise, who won the grade I Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) back in 2009. Since then, he has become a capable sprinter, winning the Aristides Stakes (gr. III) here at Churchill last year and performing moderately well in a number of other stakes. However, his form this year has not been very good at all, for he has not managed to finish better than third in four starts, and failed to hit the board in two stakes attempts. Perhaps he can reach back into his past and pull out another high-class effort later this afternoon, but it seems that age is beginning to catch up to him.
At Monmouth Park . . .
Sophomore fillies on the turf comprise the feature race of the card, the $100,000 Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) at a mile and a sixteenth. Nine entered, but two scratches have reduced the field size to seven. The morning line favorite is Somali Lemonade, winner of the J P Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland last fall. She's had a bit of trouble returning to form this year, as she could only manage a second in the Appalachian Stakes (gr. III) and a fourth in the Sands Point Stakes (gr. II), but this looks like an easy spot to get back on track, and she should have every chance at finding the winner's circle this time around.
Her main competition will likely come from Dancing Solo, a talented daughter of Giant's Causeway from the barn of Todd Pletcher. She enters this race off of an impressive victory in the Little Silver Stakes at Monmouth Park, in which she closed strongly to win by a length and a half. Time will tell if she is in the same class as Somali Lemonade, but I think she looks like a major contender.
Other major contenders include Zultanite, who finished five lengths in front of Somali Lemonade in the Sands Point Stakes; Glamour N Glory, the runner-up to Dancing Solo in the Little Silver Stakes; and Destiny's Child, a German-bred filly owned by Team Valor International that will be making her first start in the United States.
At Parx Racing . . .
A field of six, reduced from eight by two scratches, is set to start in the $150,000 Donald LeVine Memorial Handicap this afternoon. The morning line favorite is Golddigger's Boy, who has won five of his seven starts here at Parx, including last year's Donald LeVine. He's been in good form this year, and looks to have an excellent chance at adding another stakes victory to his record.
Toby's Corner may very well end up going off as the second choice, despite the fact that he has yet to win a race this year. Winner of the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) in 2011, he went to the sidelines with an injury shortly thereafter, returning to the races earlier this year to finish third in both the General George Handicap (gr. II) and New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) before finishing seventh of nine in the Pimlico Special Stakes (gr. III). If he can regain his 2011 form, he could be a serious threat from off the pace.
Another obvious contender is Sloane Ranger, who won an allowance optional claiming race last time out while defeating Golddigger's Boy. A repeat of that performance could be sufficient to secure him the victory. Also intriguing is Ponzi Scheme, winner of the Decathlon Stakes at Monmouth Park last time out. True, he didn't beat much that day after many of the runners were involved in an accident, but he's got class, and he should appreciate the seven-furlong distance of this race.
-Keelerman
Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Mother Goose Stakes Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $300,000 Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I), to be run at Belmont Park on Saturday. The 1 1/16th miles race for three-year-old fillies has drawn the two leaders of the division, Believe You Can and Contested, as well as the promising Zo Impressive and graded stakes winner Disposablepleasure.
1 Believe You Can
2 Contested
3 Disposablepleasure
4 Wildcat's Smile
5 Zo Impressive
-Keelerman
1 Believe You Can
2 Contested
3 Disposablepleasure
4 Wildcat's Smile
5 Zo Impressive
-Keelerman
Friday, May 04, 2012
BELIEVE YOU CAN WINS THE KENTUCKY OAKS!
Believe You Can wore down Broadway's Alibi in the Churchill Downs homestretch to win the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) by about three-quarters of a length.
Ridden to victory by Rosie Napravnik, who became the first female rider to win the Oaks, Believe You Can got off to an alert start and settled into the second position early on, just behind Broadway's Alibi. The two rattled off fractions of :23.12 and :47.47 while leading the rest of the field by about a length. On Fire Baby was racing in third toward the inside, followed closely by Colonial Empress, Eden's Moon, and Grace Hall. Summer Applause was racing in midpack, while Jemima's Pearl, Yara, and Sacristy were toward the rear of the field.
The positions remained relatively unchanged down the backstretch and into the far turn, with Broadway's Alibi and Believe You Can continuing to lead the way. In fact, those two remained together into the homestretch, where the put away challlenges from Grace Hall and On Fire Baby to open up a commanding lead.
In the vicinity of the eighth pole, it appeared as though Broadway's Alibi might have enough left in the tank to hold off her rival. But Believe You Can just kept on running, eventually taking over the lead and pulling away late to score a game victory, stopping the clock for nine furlongs in 1:49.50. Grace Hall stayed on well for third, while Summer Applause edged out a tiring On Fire Baby for fourth.
The winner is trained by Larry Jones and owned by Brereton C. Jones. She has now won three graded stakes races, the other two being the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) and Tempted Stakes (gr. III). She also won the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds to start off 2012.
-Keelerman
2012 KENTUCKY OAKS DAY ANALYSIS
When you can smell the lilies in the air, it's a sure sign that the Kentucky Derby is rapidly approaching. Today's feature race at Churchill Downs is, of course, the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) -- also known as the "Run for the Lilies." As usual, the prestigious filly race has drawn a large and talented field of runners, and as usual, the race is supported by a strong undercard of graded stakes races. Before we delve into our analysis of the Oaks, let's take a look at some of these intriguing pre-Oaks appetizers:
Race 6: La Troinne Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
1 Afleeting Lady
2 St. John's River
3 Love Theway Youare
4 Plum Pretty
5 Juanita
6 Absinthe Minded
7 Maristar
The heavy favorite will undoubtedly be Plum Pretty, a fine filly from the barn of Bob Baffert that won last year's Kentucky Oaks. Her form was iffy for the rest of the year, but she did manage to score a convincing victory in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes (gr. II) and finish second in the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I). This year, she won the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in impressive fashion off of a five-month layoff. She should be even sharper today, and I can't really see her getting beat.
Of course, one must respect St. John's River, who was beaten just a neck by Plum Pretty in the 2011 Kentucky Oaks. She came back after that to win the Delaware Oaks (gr. II), but subsequently finished fifth in the TVG Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and went to the sidelines. She underwent surgery to correct a breathing issue, and has trained well since then, but she probably won't be ready to turn in her best effort off such a long layoff, so second is probably the best she can manage today.
For third, I like Afleeting Lady, who has not raced since finishing second in the Falls City Handicap (gr. II) here at Churchill last November. Like St. John's River, she may need to get a race under her belt before returning to her sharpest form, but she has turned in a pair of bullet works here at Churchill for her return, and I think that she could be sitting on a big effort.
Race 7: Eight Belles Stakes (gr. III)
Seven furlongs on the main track
Entries:
1 Always Here Too
2 Small Kitchen
3 Good Deed
4 Zunlei
5 Volcat
6 Livi Makenzie
7 Contested
8 My Due Process
This looks like a pretty evenly-matched race, with a number of fillies looking capable of winning, but the one I like is Contested. The Bob Baffert-trainee looked terrific last year when she broke her maiden by 6 1/2 lengths in a Santa Anita maiden special weight, and looked just as good when returning off of a six-month layoff to win a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race at that same track by about five lengths. She should only be sharper today, and figures to work out an excellent trip from gate seven.
As for the rest, Xunlei won the Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies Stakes going this same distance at Calder last month, and should be coming strongly late if the pace is quick enough to set up her late run. Good Deed won Oaklawn's six-furlong Prima Donna Stakes last month in the sharp time of 1:09.66, and may simply be capable of running her rivals off their feet. Small Kitchen was beaten 14 1/4 lengths last time out in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II), but that was a two-turn route race, and she is undefeated in sprints. Like Contested and Good Deed, she'll likely be part of the early pace, so if those three were to duel themselves into defeat, then don't be surprised if Xunlei picks up the pieces.
Race 8: Edgewood Stakes
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
I won't go into great detail here, but Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) winner Stephanie's Kitten looks best in this spot. Although she could only manage a third-place finish in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) last time out, that was her first start in five months, and she should be much sharper today.
If Stephanie's Kitten is to be beat, then More Than Love and Welcome Dance could be capable of playing spoiler. More Than Love's turf races have been exceptional, and although she could only managed a badly beaten seventh in the Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III) last time out, that was over Turfway's Polytrack. As for Welcome Dance, she has not raced since finishing a narrowly beaten fourth in Gulfstream's Ginger Brew Stakes last December, but in that race, she received a simply awful trip. She has trained so sharply since then for trainer Michael Matz that I suspect she may be sitting on the best race of her career. I won't be surprised at all if she were to win.
Race 9: Alysheba Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
1 Nates Mineshaft
2 Successful Dan
3 Fort Larned
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Golden Yank
6 Boxeur des Rues (Scratched)
7 Apart
8 Plutonium
9 Our Dark Knight (Scratched)
10 Colizeo
To me, this race is between Mucho Macho Man and Successful Dan. The first-mentioned colt finished third over this track in last year's Kentucky Derby and is riding a three-race winning streak that includes victories in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II) and the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes. Among the horses he beat in those two races were Ron the Greek, subsequent winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I); and Jackson Bend, winner of the Carter Handicap (gr. I) last time out.
As for Successful Dan, he finished first in the 2010 Clark Handicap (gr. I) before being disqualified to third. Injuries kept him sidelined for the next sixteen months, but he showed no signs of rust in his return race last month at Keeneland, in which he won an "about seven furlongs" allowance race by a length over fellow Alysheba contender Golden Yank. This is admittedly a major step up in class, but I think he could prove up to the challenge.
Fort Larned and Nates Mineshaft will also be well bet, for they are coming off of highly impressive victories in graded stakes, but I'm a bit concerned that they may not repeat those performances. Fort Larned's victory in Gulfstream Skip Away Stakes (gr. III) -- in which he broke the track record a 1 3/16th miles -- was much, much better than any effort he had ever turned in previously. Nates Mineshaft brings a four-race winning streak into this race, which includes victories in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) and Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III), but all four of those victories came at Fair Grounds, and I'm not sure that he isn't just a spectacular Fair Grounds specialist.
Apart and Colizeo will likely receive some betting support as well, but neither have raced in many months and probably need to get this race under them before returning to peak form. Golden Yank, however, could very well be up to turning in a decent performance if the early pace is sufficiently fast.
Race 10: American Turf Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
I won't go into great detail here either, simply because there are so many horses to discuss, but I think that this race may be ripe for an upset. After all, two of the favorites -- Silver Max and Howe Great, both of whom have shown a great deal of early speed in the past -- will be breaking from far outside post positons.
The colt I like is Todd Pletcher's Star Channel, who has won three straight races since last December, culminating with a victory in the Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf Stakes. I'll be the first to admit that he is taking a pretty big step up in class, but he's got the early speed to be a contender from the start and a strong enough finishing kick to suggest that he could hold off the closers.
Gung Ho and Blueskiesnrainbows have both proven themselves in grade I company, finishing third in major Kentucky Derby preps, but it's hard to say if they are best on turf or not.
Race 11: Kentucky Oaks (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the main track
Entries:
For this race, I shall break down the fourteen runners into three groups: Unlikely Contenders, Superfecta Contenders, and Win Contenders
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
AND WHY NOT - This grade 1-placed filly finished second in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill in October to fellow Oaks contender On Fire Baby, but her only start since then yielded a dismal seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II). While it's not unreasonable to think she could rebound to her Pocahontas form, she would really have to step up even beyond that to be a contender in this tough race.
COLONIAL EMPRESS - While she did finish third to On Fire Baby and Amie's Dini in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) two starts back, this filly is still a maiden from three starts and has never finished closer than 6 1/4 lengths from the winner. Coupled with the fact that she has drawn gate twelve, it's hard to picture her securing any more than a minor piece of the purse.
KARLOVY VARY - It's difficult to toss a grade I winner, but this filly's lone start on dirt -- at Churchill last fall in the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) -- resulted in a badly beaten seventh-place finish behind On Fire Baby. Granted, she didn't get the best of trips at all that day, and she seems to have gotten considerably better with age, but this filly simply seems to be better on turf and synthetic, and her pedigree seems to agree with that.
SACRISTY - She did break her maiden here at Churchill last November, but this talented sprinter has never been beyond seven furlongs and has been beaten pretty soundly in her last two starts. There's no denying that she has talent, and she will have Mike Smith aboard, but I can't really see her being a major contender here.
YARA - Two starts back, she defeated Oaks favorite Grace Hall in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), but Grace Hall was by no means at her best that day, coming off of a lengthy layoff, and the tables were turned next time out in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II) where Grace Hall won impressively as Yara finished fifth, beaten ten lengths. Perhaps Yara will rebound to her Davona Dale form, but even if she does, she still has to overcome the fact that she is a front-runner breaking from gate fourteen.
SUPERFECTA CONTENDERS
AMIE'S DINI - Yet another front-running filly to have drawn a far outside post position (gate 13), Amie's Dini has had a productive year, winning the Martha Washington Stakes and finishing second in a trio of stakes -- the Dixie Belle Stakes to the once-beaten, but now retired, Now I Know; the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) to On Fire Baby; and the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II) to Mamma Kimbo. If she can work out a good trip, she can be right there at the finish, but between the number of speedsters in this race and her far outside post position, it's difficult to envision her pulling off an upset..
BELIEVE YOU CAN - Karlovy Vary, Yara, and Amie's Dini may be speedy fillies, but they're going to have to be quick to beat Believe You Can to the lead. This Larry Jones-trainee won the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) and Silverbulletday Stakes this year at Fair Grounds, sandwiching those victories around a poor defeat in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III). She has been training beautifully here at Churchill for this race, but once again, this is a front-runner if a field full of front-runners. And nine furlongs may be just a tad bit beyond her range.
BROADWAY'S ALIBI - It's hard to believe, but this filly is a front-runner, too! From the barn of Todd Pletcher, this talented daughter of Vindication has won four straight races, including the seven-furlong Forward Gal Stakes (gr. II) by 16 3/4 lengths. Last time out, she took Aqueduct's Comely Stakes (gr. III) by 3 1/2 lengths while stretching out to a mile for the first time, but she still strikes me as a filly that may have difficulties traversing nine furlongs. Especially with all of the other speed in this race.
EDEN'S MOON - As incomprehensible as this might be, Eden's Moon is (let's guess!), a front-runner! Yes, this Bob Baffert-trained filly won the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita this spring in wire-to-wire fashion, then returned to finish a close third in the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I) after being denied the early lead. Chances are, she'll do her best running if she gets a clear early lead and is allowed to settle -- but isn't that impossible in this spot? :)
ON FIRE BABY - There's a lot to like about this filly. She's 2-for-2 here at Churchill, both victories coming in graded stakes, and she enters this race off of a two-length victory in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) over Amie's Dini. But I am a little concerned about the fact that she has drawn gate one, and the fact that she has never been too far off of the early lead. With all the speed in this race, she'll probably be forced to sit a bit further back than usual, and likely along the rail. Perhaps she is good enough to overcome this, but I just don't know.
WIN CONTENDERS
GRACE HALL - This filly is going to be the deserving favorite, based off of the fact that she is coming off of a dominating victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II) and has never finished worse than second. Chances are, she is prepared to turn in the best performance of her career, but I am just a bit concerned about her post-position draw. She seems to be a much better filly when racing on the outside, and the possibility certainly exists that she could get trapped down along the rail. Furthermore, if you believe in Beyer speed figures, she just isn't fast enough to win this race. Nevertheless, I like her chances, and she is one filly who won't mind the nine furlong distance.
HARD NOT TO LIKE - At last, a closer! This talented filly has never raced on dirt, but has shown plenty of promise in her six starts to date. Last year, she finished a close fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), then returned five months later to finish a close second to Karlovy Vary in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I). Obviously, the switch to dirt is a concern, but being a daughter of Hard Spun, she shouldn't mind the switch, and with all of the speed in front of her setting up her late run, she could be a major, major contender in the homestretch.
JEMIMA'S PEARL - The more highly-regarded of Baffert's two entrants, Jemima's Pearl is coming off of a third-place finish in the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II), where she was beaten two lengths. However, she looked so impressive in that start, finishing up strongly from off the pace. She's got a nice pedigree backing her up, and there's more than enough speed here to set up her late run. Furthermore, she has drawn post position eight, which should allow her to secure a perfect trip, and she was more than holding her own while training with Derby favorite Bodemeister during the last couple of weeks. All in all, I think this filly has as good a chance at winning as anyone else, and with Baffert behind her, she may very well emerge victorious.
SUMMER APPLAUSE - I have been fond of this filly since she won an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds last December, and she has more than lived up to expectations. After finishing a close second to Believe You Can in a paceless Silverbulletday Stakes, this late-running filly turned the tables on her rival to win the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) by one length. Last time out, she was beaten a head by Believe You Can in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) after appearing hopelessly beaten at the eighth pole. She's got the speed figures to contend with anyone, a running style that fits the race, a top jockey in the saddle -- I think that could be a winning combination.
My selections are:
1 Jemima's Pearl
2 Summer Applause
3 Grace Hall
4 On Fire Baby
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Hard Not to Like
2 On Fire Baby
3 Grace Hall
4 Believe You Can
Surprisingly, we both decided to pick against Grace Hall. So I guess we'll both feel pretty silly if the big favorite wins by five, but we are both fairly confident in our selections and are looking forward to watching one of the most exciting races of the year!
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
Race 6: La Troinne Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
1 Afleeting Lady
2 St. John's River
3 Love Theway Youare
4 Plum Pretty
5 Juanita
6 Absinthe Minded
7 Maristar
The heavy favorite will undoubtedly be Plum Pretty, a fine filly from the barn of Bob Baffert that won last year's Kentucky Oaks. Her form was iffy for the rest of the year, but she did manage to score a convincing victory in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes (gr. II) and finish second in the TVG Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I). This year, she won the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) in impressive fashion off of a five-month layoff. She should be even sharper today, and I can't really see her getting beat.
Of course, one must respect St. John's River, who was beaten just a neck by Plum Pretty in the 2011 Kentucky Oaks. She came back after that to win the Delaware Oaks (gr. II), but subsequently finished fifth in the TVG Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and went to the sidelines. She underwent surgery to correct a breathing issue, and has trained well since then, but she probably won't be ready to turn in her best effort off such a long layoff, so second is probably the best she can manage today.
For third, I like Afleeting Lady, who has not raced since finishing second in the Falls City Handicap (gr. II) here at Churchill last November. Like St. John's River, she may need to get a race under her belt before returning to her sharpest form, but she has turned in a pair of bullet works here at Churchill for her return, and I think that she could be sitting on a big effort.
Race 7: Eight Belles Stakes (gr. III)
Seven furlongs on the main track
Entries:
1 Always Here Too
2 Small Kitchen
3 Good Deed
4 Zunlei
5 Volcat
6 Livi Makenzie
7 Contested
8 My Due Process
This looks like a pretty evenly-matched race, with a number of fillies looking capable of winning, but the one I like is Contested. The Bob Baffert-trainee looked terrific last year when she broke her maiden by 6 1/2 lengths in a Santa Anita maiden special weight, and looked just as good when returning off of a six-month layoff to win a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race at that same track by about five lengths. She should only be sharper today, and figures to work out an excellent trip from gate seven.
As for the rest, Xunlei won the Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies Stakes going this same distance at Calder last month, and should be coming strongly late if the pace is quick enough to set up her late run. Good Deed won Oaklawn's six-furlong Prima Donna Stakes last month in the sharp time of 1:09.66, and may simply be capable of running her rivals off their feet. Small Kitchen was beaten 14 1/4 lengths last time out in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II), but that was a two-turn route race, and she is undefeated in sprints. Like Contested and Good Deed, she'll likely be part of the early pace, so if those three were to duel themselves into defeat, then don't be surprised if Xunlei picks up the pieces.
Race 8: Edgewood Stakes
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
I won't go into great detail here, but Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) winner Stephanie's Kitten looks best in this spot. Although she could only manage a third-place finish in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) last time out, that was her first start in five months, and she should be much sharper today.
If Stephanie's Kitten is to be beat, then More Than Love and Welcome Dance could be capable of playing spoiler. More Than Love's turf races have been exceptional, and although she could only managed a badly beaten seventh in the Bourbonette Stakes (gr. III) last time out, that was over Turfway's Polytrack. As for Welcome Dance, she has not raced since finishing a narrowly beaten fourth in Gulfstream's Ginger Brew Stakes last December, but in that race, she received a simply awful trip. She has trained so sharply since then for trainer Michael Matz that I suspect she may be sitting on the best race of her career. I won't be surprised at all if she were to win.
Race 9: Alysheba Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the main track
Entries:
1 Nates Mineshaft
2 Successful Dan
3 Fort Larned
4 Mucho Macho Man
5 Golden Yank
6 Boxeur des Rues (Scratched)
7 Apart
8 Plutonium
9 Our Dark Knight (Scratched)
10 Colizeo
To me, this race is between Mucho Macho Man and Successful Dan. The first-mentioned colt finished third over this track in last year's Kentucky Derby and is riding a three-race winning streak that includes victories in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II) and the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes. Among the horses he beat in those two races were Ron the Greek, subsequent winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I); and Jackson Bend, winner of the Carter Handicap (gr. I) last time out.
As for Successful Dan, he finished first in the 2010 Clark Handicap (gr. I) before being disqualified to third. Injuries kept him sidelined for the next sixteen months, but he showed no signs of rust in his return race last month at Keeneland, in which he won an "about seven furlongs" allowance race by a length over fellow Alysheba contender Golden Yank. This is admittedly a major step up in class, but I think he could prove up to the challenge.
Fort Larned and Nates Mineshaft will also be well bet, for they are coming off of highly impressive victories in graded stakes, but I'm a bit concerned that they may not repeat those performances. Fort Larned's victory in Gulfstream Skip Away Stakes (gr. III) -- in which he broke the track record a 1 3/16th miles -- was much, much better than any effort he had ever turned in previously. Nates Mineshaft brings a four-race winning streak into this race, which includes victories in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) and Mineshaft Handicap (gr. III), but all four of those victories came at Fair Grounds, and I'm not sure that he isn't just a spectacular Fair Grounds specialist.
Apart and Colizeo will likely receive some betting support as well, but neither have raced in many months and probably need to get this race under them before returning to peak form. Golden Yank, however, could very well be up to turning in a decent performance if the early pace is sufficiently fast.
Race 10: American Turf Stakes (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the turf course
I won't go into great detail here either, simply because there are so many horses to discuss, but I think that this race may be ripe for an upset. After all, two of the favorites -- Silver Max and Howe Great, both of whom have shown a great deal of early speed in the past -- will be breaking from far outside post positons.
The colt I like is Todd Pletcher's Star Channel, who has won three straight races since last December, culminating with a victory in the Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf Stakes. I'll be the first to admit that he is taking a pretty big step up in class, but he's got the early speed to be a contender from the start and a strong enough finishing kick to suggest that he could hold off the closers.
Gung Ho and Blueskiesnrainbows have both proven themselves in grade I company, finishing third in major Kentucky Derby preps, but it's hard to say if they are best on turf or not.
Race 11: Kentucky Oaks (gr. I)
Nine furlongs on the main track
Entries:
| PP | Horse | Jockey |
| 1 | On Fire Baby | Joe Johnson |
| 2 | Grace Hall | Javier Castellano |
| 3 | Summer Applause | Garrett Gomez |
| 4 | Eden's Moon | Martin Garcia |
| 5 | Hard Not to Like | Rafael Bejarano |
| 6 | Broadway's Alibi | John Velazquez |
| 7 | Sacristy | Mike Smith |
| 8 | Jemima's Pearl | Joe Talamo |
| 9 | Believe You Can | Rosie Napravnik |
| 10 | And Why Not | Julien Leparoux |
| 11 | Karlovy Vary | James Graham |
| 12 | Colonial Empress | Corey Nakatani |
| 13 | Amie's Dini | Jon Court |
| 14 | Yara | Jesus Castanon |
For this race, I shall break down the fourteen runners into three groups: Unlikely Contenders, Superfecta Contenders, and Win Contenders
UNLIKELY CONTENDERS
AND WHY NOT - This grade 1-placed filly finished second in the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) here at Churchill in October to fellow Oaks contender On Fire Baby, but her only start since then yielded a dismal seventh-place finish in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II). While it's not unreasonable to think she could rebound to her Pocahontas form, she would really have to step up even beyond that to be a contender in this tough race.
COLONIAL EMPRESS - While she did finish third to On Fire Baby and Amie's Dini in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) two starts back, this filly is still a maiden from three starts and has never finished closer than 6 1/4 lengths from the winner. Coupled with the fact that she has drawn gate twelve, it's hard to picture her securing any more than a minor piece of the purse.
KARLOVY VARY - It's difficult to toss a grade I winner, but this filly's lone start on dirt -- at Churchill last fall in the Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) -- resulted in a badly beaten seventh-place finish behind On Fire Baby. Granted, she didn't get the best of trips at all that day, and she seems to have gotten considerably better with age, but this filly simply seems to be better on turf and synthetic, and her pedigree seems to agree with that.
SACRISTY - She did break her maiden here at Churchill last November, but this talented sprinter has never been beyond seven furlongs and has been beaten pretty soundly in her last two starts. There's no denying that she has talent, and she will have Mike Smith aboard, but I can't really see her being a major contender here.
YARA - Two starts back, she defeated Oaks favorite Grace Hall in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), but Grace Hall was by no means at her best that day, coming off of a lengthy layoff, and the tables were turned next time out in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II) where Grace Hall won impressively as Yara finished fifth, beaten ten lengths. Perhaps Yara will rebound to her Davona Dale form, but even if she does, she still has to overcome the fact that she is a front-runner breaking from gate fourteen.
SUPERFECTA CONTENDERS
AMIE'S DINI - Yet another front-running filly to have drawn a far outside post position (gate 13), Amie's Dini has had a productive year, winning the Martha Washington Stakes and finishing second in a trio of stakes -- the Dixie Belle Stakes to the once-beaten, but now retired, Now I Know; the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) to On Fire Baby; and the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II) to Mamma Kimbo. If she can work out a good trip, she can be right there at the finish, but between the number of speedsters in this race and her far outside post position, it's difficult to envision her pulling off an upset..
BELIEVE YOU CAN - Karlovy Vary, Yara, and Amie's Dini may be speedy fillies, but they're going to have to be quick to beat Believe You Can to the lead. This Larry Jones-trainee won the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) and Silverbulletday Stakes this year at Fair Grounds, sandwiching those victories around a poor defeat in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III). She has been training beautifully here at Churchill for this race, but once again, this is a front-runner if a field full of front-runners. And nine furlongs may be just a tad bit beyond her range.
BROADWAY'S ALIBI - It's hard to believe, but this filly is a front-runner, too! From the barn of Todd Pletcher, this talented daughter of Vindication has won four straight races, including the seven-furlong Forward Gal Stakes (gr. II) by 16 3/4 lengths. Last time out, she took Aqueduct's Comely Stakes (gr. III) by 3 1/2 lengths while stretching out to a mile for the first time, but she still strikes me as a filly that may have difficulties traversing nine furlongs. Especially with all of the other speed in this race.
EDEN'S MOON - As incomprehensible as this might be, Eden's Moon is (let's guess!), a front-runner! Yes, this Bob Baffert-trained filly won the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita this spring in wire-to-wire fashion, then returned to finish a close third in the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I) after being denied the early lead. Chances are, she'll do her best running if she gets a clear early lead and is allowed to settle -- but isn't that impossible in this spot? :)
ON FIRE BABY - There's a lot to like about this filly. She's 2-for-2 here at Churchill, both victories coming in graded stakes, and she enters this race off of a two-length victory in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) over Amie's Dini. But I am a little concerned about the fact that she has drawn gate one, and the fact that she has never been too far off of the early lead. With all the speed in this race, she'll probably be forced to sit a bit further back than usual, and likely along the rail. Perhaps she is good enough to overcome this, but I just don't know.
WIN CONTENDERS
GRACE HALL - This filly is going to be the deserving favorite, based off of the fact that she is coming off of a dominating victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks (gr. II) and has never finished worse than second. Chances are, she is prepared to turn in the best performance of her career, but I am just a bit concerned about her post-position draw. She seems to be a much better filly when racing on the outside, and the possibility certainly exists that she could get trapped down along the rail. Furthermore, if you believe in Beyer speed figures, she just isn't fast enough to win this race. Nevertheless, I like her chances, and she is one filly who won't mind the nine furlong distance.
HARD NOT TO LIKE - At last, a closer! This talented filly has never raced on dirt, but has shown plenty of promise in her six starts to date. Last year, she finished a close fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), then returned five months later to finish a close second to Karlovy Vary in the Ashland Stakes (gr. I). Obviously, the switch to dirt is a concern, but being a daughter of Hard Spun, she shouldn't mind the switch, and with all of the speed in front of her setting up her late run, she could be a major, major contender in the homestretch.
JEMIMA'S PEARL - The more highly-regarded of Baffert's two entrants, Jemima's Pearl is coming off of a third-place finish in the Fantasy Stakes (gr. II), where she was beaten two lengths. However, she looked so impressive in that start, finishing up strongly from off the pace. She's got a nice pedigree backing her up, and there's more than enough speed here to set up her late run. Furthermore, she has drawn post position eight, which should allow her to secure a perfect trip, and she was more than holding her own while training with Derby favorite Bodemeister during the last couple of weeks. All in all, I think this filly has as good a chance at winning as anyone else, and with Baffert behind her, she may very well emerge victorious.
SUMMER APPLAUSE - I have been fond of this filly since she won an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds last December, and she has more than lived up to expectations. After finishing a close second to Believe You Can in a paceless Silverbulletday Stakes, this late-running filly turned the tables on her rival to win the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) by one length. Last time out, she was beaten a head by Believe You Can in the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) after appearing hopelessly beaten at the eighth pole. She's got the speed figures to contend with anyone, a running style that fits the race, a top jockey in the saddle -- I think that could be a winning combination.
My selections are:
1 Jemima's Pearl
2 Summer Applause
3 Grace Hall
4 On Fire Baby
J.R.'s selections are:
1 Hard Not to Like
2 On Fire Baby
3 Grace Hall
4 Believe You Can
Surprisingly, we both decided to pick against Grace Hall. So I guess we'll both feel pretty silly if the big favorite wins by five, but we are both fairly confident in our selections and are looking forward to watching one of the most exciting races of the year!
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
Tuesday, May 01, 2012
Kentucky Oaks Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the 138th running of the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), to be run on Friday at Churchill Downs. The nine-furlong race is among the most prestigious races for three-year-old fillies in the country. The 2012 edition has drawn fifteen entries, of which fourteen will be allowed to start. The favorite is expected to be Grace Hall, winner of the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) and Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II). Other major contenders are On Fire Baby, Summer Applause, and Believe You Can.
1 On Fire Baby
2 Grace Hall
3 Summer Applause
4 Eden's Moon
5 Hard Not to Like
6 Broadway's Alibi
7 Sacristy
8 Jemima's Pearl
9 Believe You Can
10 And Why Not
11 Karlovy Vary
12 Colonial Empress
13 Amie's Dini
14 Yara
Also eligible: Oaks Lily
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
1 On Fire Baby
2 Grace Hall
3 Summer Applause
4 Eden's Moon
5 Hard Not to Like
6 Broadway's Alibi
7 Sacristy
8 Jemima's Pearl
9 Believe You Can
10 And Why Not
11 Karlovy Vary
12 Colonial Empress
13 Amie's Dini
14 Yara
Also eligible: Oaks Lily
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
Sunday, April 29, 2012
KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- April 29th, 2012
Six days until the Derby . . .
ON THE WORK TAB
Churchill Downs
* Bodemeister was extremely sharp in his final pre-Derby workout, going five furlongs in :59 3/5 while working in company with Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender Jemima's Pearl. The track was muddy following a large hailstorm the night before, but Bodemeister seemed to handle the track very well and shouldn't mind if the track were to be muddy again on Derby day. It's worth remembering that Bodemeister's sire, Empire Maker, won the 2003 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in a sea of slop.
* Although he isn't in the race yet, Optimizer -- who currently sits 21st on the graded earnings list -- continues to train as though he will make the race. This morning, he went five furlongs in the good time of 1:00 2/5, closing his final eighth in :12 2/5 and his final quarter in :24 2/5. Should he make the Derby field, it is expected that Jon Court -- who rode the colt in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) -- would have the mount.
Palm Meadows Training Center
* It seems that trainer Todd Pletcher is pretty much alone at Palm Meadows right now, for seven of the eight horses that breezed there this morning are Pletcher trainees. That group of seven included his two Derby hopefuls, El Padrino and Gemologist, who each went a half-mile over a track labeled muddy. From the standpoint of final time, Gemologist's breeze was much more impressive, for his time of :50.39 -- while slow -- was the fastest work of the day, and nearly three seconds faster than El Padrino's :53.34. Both colts worked in company, with Gemologist breezing alongside 2011 Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) winner Disposablepleasure and El Padrino going in company with the talented maiden winner Windsurfer. Without knowing the details of either workout, it's difficult to for sure whether El Padrino's slow time was due to a disdain for the mud or just a slow opening pace, but it would have been nice to see something a bit quicker from a colt that has already proven himself to be rather fond of mud.
Kentucky Oaks Workouts
A trio of Kentucky Oaks contenders breezed this morning at a pair of racetracks, led by the tentative Oaks favorite Grace Hall, who went a half-mile in a slow :52.10 at Palm Meadows over a track labeled sloppy. At Churchill Downs, Jemima's Pearl -- as mentioned above -- breezed in company with Bodemeister, and was credited with a five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5, the fourth-fastest breeze of the day.
But by far the most impressive work was turned in by Believe You Can, who worked a bullet five furlongs at Churchill in :58 2/5, the fastest breeze of the day by 1 1/5 seconds. It was actually the second bullet breeze turned in by Believe You Can since arriving at Churchill, the other being a :59 flat work turned in on April 23rd. It appears as though the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) winner is sitting on another big race heading into the Kentucky Oaks, where she will likely be among the favorites.
IN OTHER DERBY NEWS . . .
* Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Rousing Sermon arrived at Churchill yesterday afternoon in good order, and visited the racetrack this morning. Creative Cause is scheduled to breeze tomorrow. Also expected for tomorrow's work tab are Derby contenders Daddy Nose Best, Liaison, Mark Valeski, Sabercat, and Trinniberg, the latter expected to go an easy three-eighths of a mile.
* The questions of which jockeys will ride Alpha and Rousing Sermon remain open to debate, although it does sound as though Rajiv Maragh has pretty much secured the mount on Alpha. The Rousing Sermon mystery remains very much in question. I doubt it will happen, but how about Patrick Valenzuela, who returned to racing on April 26th?
* The first card of the spring meet at Churchill Downs was held last night, with the The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) the highlight of the day. The dominating rider was Julien Leparoux, who won four of the eleven races of the card. Miguel Mena won a pair of races, while Calvin Borel, Shaun Bridgmohan, Leandro Goncalves, Brian Hernandez, Jr., and John McKee each won one apiece. Gregory Foley was the leading trainer of the day, as his two starters each won, giving him a one-win lead over nine other trainers.
After briefly glancing at the results of the day's races, a couple of things stood out. For the first four races on the card, there didn't seem to be a distinct track bias. Every race was won by horses racing on or close to the lead, but those four winners included three favorites and a second choice. After the fourth race, a sudden hailstone left the racetrack sloppy and sealed. The next two races were won by horses making bold runs on the outside, but the seventh race went to Calvin Borel with a rail-skimming ride.
The next race was the Derby Trial, which was won in impressive fashion by Hierro, who made a strong bid on the outside to defeat Paynter by a length and a half. Paynter himself had made a strong run on the outside, but just couldn't keep up in the stretch. Third-place finisher Stealcase came into the stretch four wide, while Bourbon Courage rounded out the superfecta after a wide trip. The only colt that even remotely ran well along the fence was The Black, who led into the stretch before flattening out and finishing fifth.
The ninth race was won by Speedacious, who -- according to the Equibase chart -- "set the pace off the rail". The runner-up "pressed the pace three wide." I Knot, who finished third, raced "within striking distance off the rail, moved out for wide leaving the turn . . ." Miss Dora, who finished fourth, raced "within reach off the inside". Bella Diamante and Cascadilla Falls, both raced along the rail and tired badly.
In race ten, the top five finishers in the seven horse field raced on the outside, while the two trailers tired badly after shifting to the rail for racing room.
The final race of the day continued the trend, as outside horses swept the top five positions while horses making inside bids tired badly.
In conclusion, it would appear as though an outside bias dominated the final races of the card, getting progressively stronger as the night advanced. It is doubtful that this bias will continue once the track dries out, but it's something to watch out for during the next couple of Churchill race cards.
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
ON THE WORK TAB
Churchill Downs
* Bodemeister was extremely sharp in his final pre-Derby workout, going five furlongs in :59 3/5 while working in company with Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender Jemima's Pearl. The track was muddy following a large hailstorm the night before, but Bodemeister seemed to handle the track very well and shouldn't mind if the track were to be muddy again on Derby day. It's worth remembering that Bodemeister's sire, Empire Maker, won the 2003 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in a sea of slop.
* Although he isn't in the race yet, Optimizer -- who currently sits 21st on the graded earnings list -- continues to train as though he will make the race. This morning, he went five furlongs in the good time of 1:00 2/5, closing his final eighth in :12 2/5 and his final quarter in :24 2/5. Should he make the Derby field, it is expected that Jon Court -- who rode the colt in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) -- would have the mount.
Palm Meadows Training Center
* It seems that trainer Todd Pletcher is pretty much alone at Palm Meadows right now, for seven of the eight horses that breezed there this morning are Pletcher trainees. That group of seven included his two Derby hopefuls, El Padrino and Gemologist, who each went a half-mile over a track labeled muddy. From the standpoint of final time, Gemologist's breeze was much more impressive, for his time of :50.39 -- while slow -- was the fastest work of the day, and nearly three seconds faster than El Padrino's :53.34. Both colts worked in company, with Gemologist breezing alongside 2011 Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) winner Disposablepleasure and El Padrino going in company with the talented maiden winner Windsurfer. Without knowing the details of either workout, it's difficult to for sure whether El Padrino's slow time was due to a disdain for the mud or just a slow opening pace, but it would have been nice to see something a bit quicker from a colt that has already proven himself to be rather fond of mud.
Kentucky Oaks Workouts
A trio of Kentucky Oaks contenders breezed this morning at a pair of racetracks, led by the tentative Oaks favorite Grace Hall, who went a half-mile in a slow :52.10 at Palm Meadows over a track labeled sloppy. At Churchill Downs, Jemima's Pearl -- as mentioned above -- breezed in company with Bodemeister, and was credited with a five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5, the fourth-fastest breeze of the day.
But by far the most impressive work was turned in by Believe You Can, who worked a bullet five furlongs at Churchill in :58 2/5, the fastest breeze of the day by 1 1/5 seconds. It was actually the second bullet breeze turned in by Believe You Can since arriving at Churchill, the other being a :59 flat work turned in on April 23rd. It appears as though the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) winner is sitting on another big race heading into the Kentucky Oaks, where she will likely be among the favorites.
IN OTHER DERBY NEWS . . .
* Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Rousing Sermon arrived at Churchill yesterday afternoon in good order, and visited the racetrack this morning. Creative Cause is scheduled to breeze tomorrow. Also expected for tomorrow's work tab are Derby contenders Daddy Nose Best, Liaison, Mark Valeski, Sabercat, and Trinniberg, the latter expected to go an easy three-eighths of a mile.
* The questions of which jockeys will ride Alpha and Rousing Sermon remain open to debate, although it does sound as though Rajiv Maragh has pretty much secured the mount on Alpha. The Rousing Sermon mystery remains very much in question. I doubt it will happen, but how about Patrick Valenzuela, who returned to racing on April 26th?
* The first card of the spring meet at Churchill Downs was held last night, with the The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) the highlight of the day. The dominating rider was Julien Leparoux, who won four of the eleven races of the card. Miguel Mena won a pair of races, while Calvin Borel, Shaun Bridgmohan, Leandro Goncalves, Brian Hernandez, Jr., and John McKee each won one apiece. Gregory Foley was the leading trainer of the day, as his two starters each won, giving him a one-win lead over nine other trainers.
After briefly glancing at the results of the day's races, a couple of things stood out. For the first four races on the card, there didn't seem to be a distinct track bias. Every race was won by horses racing on or close to the lead, but those four winners included three favorites and a second choice. After the fourth race, a sudden hailstone left the racetrack sloppy and sealed. The next two races were won by horses making bold runs on the outside, but the seventh race went to Calvin Borel with a rail-skimming ride.
The next race was the Derby Trial, which was won in impressive fashion by Hierro, who made a strong bid on the outside to defeat Paynter by a length and a half. Paynter himself had made a strong run on the outside, but just couldn't keep up in the stretch. Third-place finisher Stealcase came into the stretch four wide, while Bourbon Courage rounded out the superfecta after a wide trip. The only colt that even remotely ran well along the fence was The Black, who led into the stretch before flattening out and finishing fifth.
The ninth race was won by Speedacious, who -- according to the Equibase chart -- "set the pace off the rail". The runner-up "pressed the pace three wide." I Knot, who finished third, raced "within striking distance off the rail, moved out for wide leaving the turn . . ." Miss Dora, who finished fourth, raced "within reach off the inside". Bella Diamante and Cascadilla Falls, both raced along the rail and tired badly.
In race ten, the top five finishers in the seven horse field raced on the outside, while the two trailers tired badly after shifting to the rail for racing room.
The final race of the day continued the trend, as outside horses swept the top five positions while horses making inside bids tired badly.
In conclusion, it would appear as though an outside bias dominated the final races of the card, getting progressively stronger as the night advanced. It is doubtful that this bias will continue once the track dries out, but it's something to watch out for during the next couple of Churchill race cards.
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)
-Keelerman
Friday, April 06, 2012
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- April 6th, 2012
Here are my extensive recaps of last week's major racing action, including the surprising upsets in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Louisiana Derby (gr. II), in which a trio of well-regarded Derby contenders were defeated by longshots that few had expected to win. Enjoy!
Stakes Recaps
Florida Derby (gr. I)
Thoughts: In the days following the running of the Florida Derby, I have given a great deal of thought to the stunning defeats of Union Rags and El Padrino. Here's my take:
Calvin Borel won the race on the far turn.
Basically, while Javier Castellano and El Padrino were keeping Union Rags pinned in behind horses, Calvin Borel and Take Charge Indy were busy slowing the pace down over a speed-favoring track. But even still, I don't think that's what did it.
It was the fourth quarter mile fraction -- from the three-eighths pole to the eighth pole -- that won the race. During that time, Take Charge Indy ran a quarter mile in a quick :23.87. During this same period of time, Union Rags went from three lengths behind Take Charge Indy to 3 1/2 lengths behind -- meaning that Union Rags ran his own fourth quarter is roughly :23.97.
So my take on the race is that Take Charge Indy's quick fourth quarter sapped the late run from Union Rags. Although it appeared as though Union Rags was buried along the fence in traffic, he was in fact running very fast indeed -- but getting nowhere. Had Take Charge Indy instead run his fourth quarter in, say, :24 4/5, Union Rags' :23.97 fraction would have been more than enough to catch him and blow right by. But because Take Charge Indy had such a quick quarter left in the tank, Union Rags' own quick quarter was rendered completely meaningless.
From there, the race was over. Passing the eighth pole, Take Charge Indy held a 3 1/2 length lead over Union Rags and wasn't really tiring. His final furlong in :12.83 was more than enough to hold off Union Rags, who closed strongly late but was still beaten 1 1/4 lengths while finishing third.
Now, don't get me wrong. I thought Union Rags actually ran very well. His final eighth of approximately :12.38 was an excellent fraction, and his final three-eighths in around :36 2/5 was also quite good, especially when one considers that he did have to wait for room entering the stretch. It should do wonders for his fitness and set him up well for a peak effort on Derby day.
As for El Padrino, who wound up being beaten three lengths while finishing fourth, he was caught very wide around both turns and just didn't level out late. But seeing that he did lose ground on both turns, I'm leaning toward drawing a line through this performance and hoping his runs back to his previous form in subsequent races.
Finally, let me say that Reveron also ran well, running roughly the same race as Take Charge Indy. However, while Take Charge Indy appeared to have something left in the tank at the end of the race, Reveron seemed to be at the end of his distance capablities. Nevertheless, it was a very good effort, and he could turn out to be a nice colt in the future.
Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
Now, let me say it right now, I did like Hero of Order fairly well going into the Louisiana Derby. Not to win, but to crack the superfecta. And I thought that his odds of 109-1 were much, much too high.
But never did I expect him to win -- at least, not until the Louisiana Derby field turned for home.
At that point, Hero of Order had managed to escape through very moderate fractions of :47.27 and 1:11.55 -- and this coming on the same day that the nine-furlong track record was broken. So when the field turned for home, I suspected that Mark Valeski and Cigar Street -- the two favorites, both making bold runs for the lead -- would not be catching Hero of Order easily.
But even still, I figured that both colts, especially Mark Valeski, would be able to reel in the runaway longshot and secure victory. But in the vicinity of the eighth pole, those assumptions faded away, replaced by the budding suspicion that Hero of Order would not be stopping.
Without taking my eyes away from the race, I muttered four words to Dan J, a fellow horse racing enthusiast who was watching the race with me.
"Ninety. Nine. To one."
99-1 or 109-1, it didn't matter. We both watched in awe as Hero of Order held off Mark Valeski to win by a half-length, with Rousing Sermon charging late for third.
***
Of course, as typically happens in major horse races, a few surprising facts emerged following the upset victory. First off, Hero of Order is not nominated to the Triple Crown. Secondly, it would cost his connections $200,000 to nominate him at this late stage. Thirdly, it still wouldn't guarantee him a spot in the starting gate -- early nominees are given preference over late nominees in the Derby field, and if twenty early nominees were to be entered in the Kentucky Derby, then Hero of Order would be excluded from the field, regardless of his status as the Louisiana Derby winner.
Then, it was revealed that Mark Valeski emerged from the race with some cuts and a missing shoe. This clearly had something to do with his dull performance, and would explain why he couldn't catch a longshot that was closing his final eighth in a slow :13.47. Assuming Mark Valeski continues to train well, it shouldn't affect his chances in the Kentucky Derby. After all, last year's Derby third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man was coming into the race off of a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, in which he too had lost a shoe.
Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II)
While heavily favored Summer Applause ran very well in the Fair Grounds Oaks, the star of the show was Believe You Can, who rebounded sharply from a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) to win the biggest filly race at Fair Grounds by a head. Despite being in the tough position of having to press a fast pace while down along the rail, Believe You Can was nevertheless able to burst clear of the field at the top of the stretch and hold off an impressive late run from Summer Applause to win in narrow fashion. Both fillies look like they could be major contenders in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) next month.
Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II)
Like Believe You Can, Grace Hall rebounded from a defeat to win a major Kentucky Oaks prep race, taking the Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II) in highly impressive fashion. Coming off of a defeat in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), Grace Hall did have some questions to answer, but those question evaporated when she left her rivals in the dust en route to a 6 1/2 length triumph. The fact that Zo Impressive -- a good filly in her own right -- wasn't able to get anywhere near the winner, despite making an eye-catching bid around the turn, says wonders about Grace Hall's talent. She could end up being the Kentucky Oaks favorite.
Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I)
Going into the Santa Anita Oaks, the race was being billed as a thrilling match race between Eden's Moon, winner of the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I), and Reneesgotzip, runner-up in that same race despite blowing the first turn. In the end, Reneesgotzip was able to turn the tables on her rival while taking both turns in excellent fashion, but her apparant stamina limitations caught up to her in the stretch and it ended up being Willa B Awesome who charged late to win by a nose. While all three fillies ran well, and were seperated by just 1 1/2 lengths at the finish, it would appear as though Willa B Awesome has perhaps the best chance at stretching out to win a race like the Kentucky Oaks. On the other hand, Reneesgotzip did set a very fast pace (three-quarters in 1:09.95) and probably deserves one more chance to try and stretch out.
UAE Derby (UAE-II)
Thoughts: Daddy Long Legs was much the best in this spot, tracking the early leader and taking over turning for home to score a convincing victory in this $2,000,000 event. What I really liked about his performance was the way he burst clear of the field at the top of the stretch and stayed on strongly to never let anyone even get close.
Also turning in an interesting performance was Wrote, who ran well to finish third in his first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) last year over the Churchill Downs turf. It sounds like both Daddy Long Legs and Wrote will be coming for the Derby, so that should add some fascinating international interest to the race.
Other Races of Note
There is only one non-stakes race that I shall mention today, that being a seven-furlong maiden special weight that was run at Gulfstream Park last Saturday. The winner was Ez Effort, a Todd Pletcher-trainee that tracked the early pace before drawing away to win by eight lengths in the sharp time of 1:22.06. It's definitely a bit late for Triple Crown contenders to be breaking their maidens, but perhaps this colt will make some noise further down the road.
-Keelerman
Stakes Recaps
Florida Derby (gr. I)
Thoughts: In the days following the running of the Florida Derby, I have given a great deal of thought to the stunning defeats of Union Rags and El Padrino. Here's my take:
Calvin Borel won the race on the far turn.
Basically, while Javier Castellano and El Padrino were keeping Union Rags pinned in behind horses, Calvin Borel and Take Charge Indy were busy slowing the pace down over a speed-favoring track. But even still, I don't think that's what did it.
It was the fourth quarter mile fraction -- from the three-eighths pole to the eighth pole -- that won the race. During that time, Take Charge Indy ran a quarter mile in a quick :23.87. During this same period of time, Union Rags went from three lengths behind Take Charge Indy to 3 1/2 lengths behind -- meaning that Union Rags ran his own fourth quarter is roughly :23.97.
So my take on the race is that Take Charge Indy's quick fourth quarter sapped the late run from Union Rags. Although it appeared as though Union Rags was buried along the fence in traffic, he was in fact running very fast indeed -- but getting nowhere. Had Take Charge Indy instead run his fourth quarter in, say, :24 4/5, Union Rags' :23.97 fraction would have been more than enough to catch him and blow right by. But because Take Charge Indy had such a quick quarter left in the tank, Union Rags' own quick quarter was rendered completely meaningless.
From there, the race was over. Passing the eighth pole, Take Charge Indy held a 3 1/2 length lead over Union Rags and wasn't really tiring. His final furlong in :12.83 was more than enough to hold off Union Rags, who closed strongly late but was still beaten 1 1/4 lengths while finishing third.
Now, don't get me wrong. I thought Union Rags actually ran very well. His final eighth of approximately :12.38 was an excellent fraction, and his final three-eighths in around :36 2/5 was also quite good, especially when one considers that he did have to wait for room entering the stretch. It should do wonders for his fitness and set him up well for a peak effort on Derby day.
As for El Padrino, who wound up being beaten three lengths while finishing fourth, he was caught very wide around both turns and just didn't level out late. But seeing that he did lose ground on both turns, I'm leaning toward drawing a line through this performance and hoping his runs back to his previous form in subsequent races.
Finally, let me say that Reveron also ran well, running roughly the same race as Take Charge Indy. However, while Take Charge Indy appeared to have something left in the tank at the end of the race, Reveron seemed to be at the end of his distance capablities. Nevertheless, it was a very good effort, and he could turn out to be a nice colt in the future.
Louisiana Derby (gr. II)
Now, let me say it right now, I did like Hero of Order fairly well going into the Louisiana Derby. Not to win, but to crack the superfecta. And I thought that his odds of 109-1 were much, much too high.
But never did I expect him to win -- at least, not until the Louisiana Derby field turned for home.
At that point, Hero of Order had managed to escape through very moderate fractions of :47.27 and 1:11.55 -- and this coming on the same day that the nine-furlong track record was broken. So when the field turned for home, I suspected that Mark Valeski and Cigar Street -- the two favorites, both making bold runs for the lead -- would not be catching Hero of Order easily.
But even still, I figured that both colts, especially Mark Valeski, would be able to reel in the runaway longshot and secure victory. But in the vicinity of the eighth pole, those assumptions faded away, replaced by the budding suspicion that Hero of Order would not be stopping.
Without taking my eyes away from the race, I muttered four words to Dan J, a fellow horse racing enthusiast who was watching the race with me.
"Ninety. Nine. To one."
99-1 or 109-1, it didn't matter. We both watched in awe as Hero of Order held off Mark Valeski to win by a half-length, with Rousing Sermon charging late for third.
***
Of course, as typically happens in major horse races, a few surprising facts emerged following the upset victory. First off, Hero of Order is not nominated to the Triple Crown. Secondly, it would cost his connections $200,000 to nominate him at this late stage. Thirdly, it still wouldn't guarantee him a spot in the starting gate -- early nominees are given preference over late nominees in the Derby field, and if twenty early nominees were to be entered in the Kentucky Derby, then Hero of Order would be excluded from the field, regardless of his status as the Louisiana Derby winner.
Then, it was revealed that Mark Valeski emerged from the race with some cuts and a missing shoe. This clearly had something to do with his dull performance, and would explain why he couldn't catch a longshot that was closing his final eighth in a slow :13.47. Assuming Mark Valeski continues to train well, it shouldn't affect his chances in the Kentucky Derby. After all, last year's Derby third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man was coming into the race off of a third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby, in which he too had lost a shoe.
Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II)
While heavily favored Summer Applause ran very well in the Fair Grounds Oaks, the star of the show was Believe You Can, who rebounded sharply from a fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) to win the biggest filly race at Fair Grounds by a head. Despite being in the tough position of having to press a fast pace while down along the rail, Believe You Can was nevertheless able to burst clear of the field at the top of the stretch and hold off an impressive late run from Summer Applause to win in narrow fashion. Both fillies look like they could be major contenders in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) next month.
Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II)
Like Believe You Can, Grace Hall rebounded from a defeat to win a major Kentucky Oaks prep race, taking the Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II) in highly impressive fashion. Coming off of a defeat in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), Grace Hall did have some questions to answer, but those question evaporated when she left her rivals in the dust en route to a 6 1/2 length triumph. The fact that Zo Impressive -- a good filly in her own right -- wasn't able to get anywhere near the winner, despite making an eye-catching bid around the turn, says wonders about Grace Hall's talent. She could end up being the Kentucky Oaks favorite.
Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I)
Going into the Santa Anita Oaks, the race was being billed as a thrilling match race between Eden's Moon, winner of the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I), and Reneesgotzip, runner-up in that same race despite blowing the first turn. In the end, Reneesgotzip was able to turn the tables on her rival while taking both turns in excellent fashion, but her apparant stamina limitations caught up to her in the stretch and it ended up being Willa B Awesome who charged late to win by a nose. While all three fillies ran well, and were seperated by just 1 1/2 lengths at the finish, it would appear as though Willa B Awesome has perhaps the best chance at stretching out to win a race like the Kentucky Oaks. On the other hand, Reneesgotzip did set a very fast pace (three-quarters in 1:09.95) and probably deserves one more chance to try and stretch out.
UAE Derby (UAE-II)
Thoughts: Daddy Long Legs was much the best in this spot, tracking the early leader and taking over turning for home to score a convincing victory in this $2,000,000 event. What I really liked about his performance was the way he burst clear of the field at the top of the stretch and stayed on strongly to never let anyone even get close.
Also turning in an interesting performance was Wrote, who ran well to finish third in his first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) last year over the Churchill Downs turf. It sounds like both Daddy Long Legs and Wrote will be coming for the Derby, so that should add some fascinating international interest to the race.
Other Races of Note
There is only one non-stakes race that I shall mention today, that being a seven-furlong maiden special weight that was run at Gulfstream Park last Saturday. The winner was Ez Effort, a Todd Pletcher-trainee that tracked the early pace before drawing away to win by eight lengths in the sharp time of 1:22.06. It's definitely a bit late for Triple Crown contenders to be breaking their maidens, but perhaps this colt will make some noise further down the road.
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 31, 2012
BELIEVE YOU CAN WINS THE FAIR GROUNDS OAKS!
Believe You Can rebounded from a poor fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) last month to win the $500,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) by a head.
Ridden to victory by Rosie Napravnik, Believe You Can got off to a good start and settled into the second position along the rail as the maiden Colonial Empress set a quick pace of :22.88 and :46.47 while leading by three-quarters of a length. Heavily favored Summer Applause, winner of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, was back in third, followed by Small Kitchen and Disposablepleasure.
Ridden to victory by Rosie Napravnik, Believe You Can got off to a good start and settled into the second position along the rail as the maiden Colonial Empress set a quick pace of :22.88 and :46.47 while leading by three-quarters of a length. Heavily favored Summer Applause, winner of the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, was back in third, followed by Small Kitchen and Disposablepleasure.
Monday, March 26, 2012
Fair Grounds Oaks Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $500,000 Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II), to be run on Saturday, March 31st, at Fair Grounds. The prestigious prep race for the $1,000,000 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) has drawn a small but talented field of six, led by Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) winner Summer Applause, Silverbulletday Stakes winner Believe You Can, and the promising maiden winner Small Kitchen.
1 Believe You Can
2 Inny Minnie
3 Colonial Empress
1 Believe You Can
2 Inny Minnie
3 Colonial Empress
Saturday, February 25, 2012
SUMMER APPLAUSE WINS THE RACHEL ALEXANDRA STAKES!
Summer Applause couldn't quite catch Believe You Can in last month's Silverbulletday Stakes, but proved much better than her rival in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes (gr. III) this afternoon at Fair Grounds, leaving Believe You Can far behind in the stretch to win the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) prep race by a length.
Ridden to victory by Robby Albarado, Summer Applause settled into the fourth position early on as Avie's Sense set a moderate pace of :24.16 and :47.54 while leading by three lengths. Inny Minnie was racing on the outside in second, followed on the rail by Believe You Can. Table Three Ten and Annaclone were the early trailers.
Ridden to victory by Robby Albarado, Summer Applause settled into the fourth position early on as Avie's Sense set a moderate pace of :24.16 and :47.54 while leading by three lengths. Inny Minnie was racing on the outside in second, followed on the rail by Believe You Can. Table Three Ten and Annaclone were the early trailers.
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- February 25th, 2012
A pair of major graded prep races for the Kentucky Derby are scheduled to be run over the course of this weekend, and when the racing is over we should have a clear-cut Derby favorite heading to Louisville. At Gulfstream Park on Sunday, Derby favorite Union Rags takes on Algorithms and Discreet Dancer in what should prove to be the most exciting prep race so far. And at Fair Grounds on Saturday, the highly-regarded El Padrino is set to take on ten others in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), where he should -- barring an unexpected change in the weather -- get a chance to prove himself over a fast track.
Today's post shall cover Saturday's major racing action, including the Risen Star and the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). Tomorrow's post will include my analysis of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) and the Baffle Stakes at Santa Anita. Enjoy!
Today's post shall cover Saturday's major racing action, including the Risen Star and the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II). Tomorrow's post will include my analysis of the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) and the Baffle Stakes at Santa Anita. Enjoy!
Friday, January 27, 2012
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- January 26th, 2012
Here are my recaps of last week's major racing action along the Triple Crown Trail. Remember, you can click on the names of some of the stakes races to read a more detailed recap. Enjoy!
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