KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- May 3rd, 2012

Two days until the Derby . . .

***

Once again, there were no Derby-related workouts, for it is much too close to the race for the horses to be doing any serious training. Nevertheless, there were a few intriguing gallops that had me fascinated.

By far the most interesting to me was the gallop turned in by Hansen, who is expected to be one of the front-runners. According to Mike Welsch of DRF.com, Hansen was "overly aggressive . . . rank to the point he needed the outrider's assistance to be pulled up." Here is the link to the complete article, which also contains a number of intriguing details on all of the other Derby contenders: http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-hansen-appears-rank-during-final-appearance-derby

Getting back to Hansen, the fact that he was rank got me to thinking. Suppose, with over 150,000 people in attendance, Hansen were to be rank in the Kentucky Derby. And suppose he got off to such a quick beginning that he outran Trinniberg into the first turn. Everyone, including myself, has been assuming that Trinniberg would be the Derby pacesetter, but what if Hansen beat him to the lead? What then? Would Hansen settle down and just keep on rolling? Or would he set a blazing pace that would fry everyone within six or seven lengths of him? It's certainly something to consider when handicapping the Derby.

***

So with the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby entries having been announced, we really ought to take a look at which jockeys have a shot at sweeping the elusive Oaks/Derby double -- that is, winning both races in the same year. The last jockey to accomplish the feat was (who else?) Calvin Borel in 2009. I believe, however, that it has only happened five or six other times.

Here is the list of jockeys that will be riding in both races, followed by the names of their respective mounts.

Jockey	Oaks mount	Derby mount
Javier Castellano	Grace Hall	Gemologist
Garrett Gomez	Summer Applause	Daddy Nose Best
Martin Garcia	Eden's Moon	Liaison
John Velazquez	Broadway's Alibi	Went the Day Well
Mike Smith	Sacristy	Bodemeister
Julien Leparoux	And Why Not	Union Rags
Corey Nakatani	Colonial Empress	Sabercat
Jon Court	Amie's Dini	Optimizer

In addition, if the Oaks also-eligible Oaks Lily were to draw into the race, then jockey Rafael Bejarano would have a chance to complete the double with her and El Padrino.
Among trainers, Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, Michael Matz, and D. Wayne Lukas each have a chance at winning both races. Baffert has Eden's Moon and Jemima's Pearl in the Oaks, in addition to Bodemeister and Liaison in the Derby. Pletcher has Broadway's Alibi in the Oaks and the duo of Gemologist and El Padrino in the Derby. Michael Matz trained And Why Not and Union Rags, while D. Wayne Lukas has Colonial Empress and Optimizer.

***

If there was a track bias at Churchill during this afternoon's racing, then it didn't show itself in any manner identifiable to myself. Horses were winning the main track races from on the lead or off the pace, from the inside and on the outside. Sometimes they dueled for the lead on the outside and held off the closers. Other times they set the pace along the rail and drew away to score convincingly. Still other time, they rallied furiously from far behind. I would say that the track was playing fairly.

As for jockeys, Calvin Borel won yet another race, meaning that he has won at least one race on every day of the meet thus far. Brian Hernandez, Jr. and Julien Leparoux each won a pair, while John Velazquez, Robby Albarado, Leandro Goncalves, Mike Smith, Javier Castellano, and Shaun Bridgmohan each won a single race.

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN --May 2nd, 2012

Three days until the Derby . . .

* Not surprisingly, there were no Derby- or Oak-related workouts turned in this morning, for the race is now only a few days away and all major training has been completed. However, there were a few interesting gallops, with Union Rags and Take Charge Indy looking excellent. The latter colt was visiting the track for the first time after arriving yesterday, and galloped a mile and five-eighths under three-time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel.
As for Union Rags, a fascinating article was written on the subject of his gallop by DRF's Mike Welsch. You can read it on DRF.com: http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-workouts-union-rags-relaxes-without-tongue-tie

* The mystery of who will ride Alpha was resolved once and for all today when entries were taken. Rajiv Maragh has the mount on the Wood Memorial (gr. I) runner-up, who has drawn gate eleven.

* Speaking of the post position draw: While I intend to write up a full analysis on the subject tomorrow, let me just say for the moment that I feel Take Charge Indy (post 3) and Creative Cause (post 8) drew extremely good post positions that compliment their running styles. Calvin Borel aboard Take Charge Indy should be able to drop his colt right on to the fence in the fourth, fifth, or perhaps sixth position early on, getting a dream trip while saving ground. Creative Cause, who seems to run best when racing on the outside, should be able to get into excellent position from gate eight. Hansen (post 14) should also perform well from his gate, but Union Rags (post 4) and I'll Have Another (post 19) may have their work cut out for them.

* The last two Derby contenders arrived at Churchill today, with Hansen shipping in from the nearby Churchill Downs training track and Daddy Long Legs arriving from Ballydoyle in Ireland. I expect that both will visit the track tomorrow morning.

* Another day of racing at Churchill was completed this afternoon, with Calvin Borel claiming another victory. Robby Albarado won two races, while Manoel Cruz, Leandro Goncalves, Gabriel Saez, Joel Rosario, Corey Nakatani, James Graham, and Corey Lanerie each won one.

As for potential track biases, the track did seem to be playing in favor of speed for the second straight day, as every one of the eight main track races were won by horses racing on or near the early lead. However, the bias certainly didn't seem to be overpowering, for there were numerous occasions in which a front-runner tired badly in the homestretch to finish off the board. But in general, the closers appeared to be having trouble rallying while the front runners were lasting longer than they should have. It will be interesting to see how the track plays tomorrow, and on Oaks day.
(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- May 1st, 2012

Four days until the Derby . . .
ON THE WORK TAB

* The only Derby- or Oaks-related workout of the day was turned in by Rousing Sermon, who went five furlongs in 1:00 2/5. The workout was highly impressive, as Rousing Sermon started off at a fairly quick pace and finished up even stronger. The gallop out wasn't anything notable, but it didn't really need to be. Jose Lezcano rode the colt during the workout, and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer subsequently confirmed that Lezcano would have the mount in the Derby, ending the weeks of \mystery as to who would ride him.
OTHER DERBY NEWS AND TIDBITS

* Take Charge Indy, El Padrino, and Gemologist all arrived at Churchill Downs today from Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida. Daddy Long Legs is expected to arrive sometime tomorrow morning from Ballydoyle in Ireland.

* Trainer Larry Jones has officially confirmed that the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) runner-up Mark Valeski will not start in the Kentucky Derby, mainly because he doesn't feel the colt belongs in the race. The decision will allow Optimizer, who had been in the 21st position on the graded earnings list, to enter the Derby. Also, My Adonis -- who is for all practical purposes the new number 21 -- is shipping from Monmouth Park to Churchill Downs in case one more horse is to scratch.

* It has been announced that Hero of Order, the upset winner of the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) that is not nominated to the Kentucky Derby, will not be supplemented to the race. The possibility still exists that he could run in the Preakness, but he would have to be supplemented there as well.

* Even still, no one knows for sure who will ride Alpha in the Kentucky Derby. Rajiv Maragh remains under consideration, but the possibility now exists that Rosie Napravnik -- who was scheduled to ride Mark Valeski -- might pick up the mount.

* Speaking of Alpha, he arrived at Churchill Downs yesterday and visited the track for the first time this morning, galloping a mile and three-eighths in excellent fashion. He seems to be completed over his injury and could be set for a big race on Derby day.

* The second card of the Churchill Downs spring meet was held today, and Calvin Borel did very well, winning two races from four mounts. Migual Mena, Leandro Goncalves, and Julien Leparoux also won two races apiece, while John McKee and Gabriel Saez each claimed one. Julien Leparoux remains the leading rider of the young meet with six victories. If there was a track bias, it was for early speed, for eight of the nine main track races were won by horses racing within 2 1/2 lengths of the lead. The only race won by a horse coming from farther back was the seventh, where Knownforstone was able to rally from fifth after a very fast pace left the front-runners exhausted. Even still, the two pacesetters managed to finish second and fourth.
* While I don't believe that Trinniberg's presence in the Derby is going to lead to a ridiculously fast early pace, I do acknowledge that this year's Derby is loaded with front-runners/pace pressers and that the possibility does exist for a distructive pace to ensue.
For the record, the fastest opening quarter mile in Derby history was the :21 4/5 turned in by Top Avenger in 1981. The fastest half-mile (:44.86) was run by Songandaprayer in 2001, who also holds the record for the fastest opening three-quarters (1:09.25).

* With all the final workou's completed, I thought it would be interesting to take a look at last year's Derby field and the final workouts turned in by each contender. Here we go:

Animal Kingdom: 6f in 1:13 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Archarcharch: 4f in :52 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Brilliant Speed: 5f in 1:01 1/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Comma to the Top: 5f in 1:00 2/5 at Hollywood Park (Fast track)
Decisive Moment: 5f in 1:01 2/5 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Derby Kitten: 4f in :52 2/5 at the Churchill Downs Training Track (Fast track)
Dialed In: 4f in :48 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center (Fast track)
Master of Hounds: N/A (Trained at Ballydoyle in Ireland)
Midnight Interlude: 5f in 1:00 4/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Mucho Macho Man: 5f in 1:00 2/5 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Nehro: 4f in :51 1/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Pants on Fire: 4f in :47 4/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Santiva: 4f in :50 1/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Shackleford: 5f in :58 4/5 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Soldat: 5f in 1:01 2/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center (Fast track)
Stay Thirsty: 5f in 1:01 4/5 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)
Twice the Appeal: 6f in 1:15 3/5 at Churchill Downs (Fast track)
Twinspired: 5f in 1:01 1/5 at the Churchill Downs Training Track (Fast track)
Watch Me Go: 5f in 1:02 at Churchill Downs (Sloppy track)

I would say that, in general, this year's workouts have been more impressive than last year's. But then again, I would say that this year's Derby horses have been more impressive than last year's.

(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- April 30th, 2012

Five days until the Derby . . .

ON THE WORK TAB

Churchill Downs

* Daddy Nose Best looked good this morning while breezing an easy-half mile in :49 2/5, beginning slowly before finishing up strongly in what was his fourth and final pre-Derby workout here at Churchill Downs. Perhaps his works haven't been as flashier as the ones turned in by, say, Union Rags or Bodemeister, but he is giving me the impression of being a legitimate contender that really likes Churchill Downs. Don't be surprised if he's finishing up strongly again on Saturday.

* Sabercat, stablemate of Daddy Nose Best, also looked good in his final pre-Derby work. Like Daddy Nose Best, Sabercat breezed a half-mile, but unlike his companion, Sabercat's work was completed in the quick time of :48 2/5. It was nice to see the colt get in a really serious piece of work, as his last breeze was nothing more than a maintenance work turned in just nine days after his third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. Making his third start off of a lengthy layoff, Sabercat is certainly eligible to improve in the Kentucky Derby, and today's workout should help him accomplish that goal.

* As impressive as Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat's half-mile workouts were, I would have to say that Creative Cause appeared to go even better when breezing that distance a little later in the morning. According to DRF.com, he began the work with an opening quarter in :24.22 second before finishing up his final quarter in an excellent :23.21 while under some pressure to complete the work in :47.43. The officially recognized time was :47 4/5. All in all, it was an excellent workout that should keep him fit and ready for another good effort on Saturday.

* Liaison, breezing just five days after his last workout, went five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 this morning while going in company with the highly talented maiden winner Mile High Magic, who was credited with an identical time. Liaison began his workout slowly but finished up strongly, getting his final two eighths in :11 3/5 and :12 seconds. His gallop out was also very impressive. He is clearly training better here at Churchill than he did all winter at Santa Anita, so all signs seem to say that he is ready to return to form on May 5th.

* An interesting situation surrounded Mark Valeski as he headed on to the main track to breeze five furlongs this morning. Trainer Larry Jones had stated the day before that his colt was still not 100% for the Derby, and whether or not he would run depended on how well he breezed today. Well, Mark Valeski went very well early on, getting the opening three-eighths in around :35 seconds flat, but seemed to tire in the final quarter mile and didn't gallop out all that impressively. The five-furlong work was timed in 1:00 1/5. After the work, Jones still wasn't sure whether to run him or not. Here is an interesting article on the subject: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69358/jones-non-committal-on-mark-valeski-for-derby

* Two-time graded stakes winning sprinter Trinniberg was scheduled to breeze three-eighths of a mile this morning, but a change in plans had him instead going about two furlongs in a fashion that wasn't really meant to be a workout. A truly fascinating article discussing the workout and the reasons for entering the Kentucky Derby can be found at Bloodhorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/69370/derby-hopeful-trinniberg-full-of-surprises After reading it, do you not think that Trinniberg might just have a chance?

OTHER DERBY NEWS AND TIDBITS . . .

* Racing returns to Churchill on Tuesday following a two-day break. There are ten races on the card, with all but one scheduled to be run on the main track. Jockey Calvin Borel has four mounts, including a 5-2 shot in the fourth race, while Julien Leparoux will ride five horses. Keep an eye out for track biases. There seemed to be an outside bias during the last seven races on the opening day of the meet, but that may have been due to the extremely sloppy nature of the track.

* Daddy Long Legs, winner of the UAE Derby (gr. II), is scheduled to fly to Churchill Downs on Tuesday from his home base at Ballydoyle in Ireland. As he will turn in no workouts over the Churchill main track, it will be difficult to get a feel for how he will take to the surface on Derby day. All we can do is watch his gallops and hope for the best.

* Speaking of Daddy Long Legs, many people are a bit concerned about the fact that he completely did not handle the Churchill main track last fall during the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), where he finished a twelfth. Another colt that performed poorly that day without any apparent excuse was Prospective, who finished last of thirteen. But let's take a moment to recall that the Churchill main track of the fall is not quite the same as the Churchill main track of the spring. In addition, let's recall that the Churchill main track was described as "peanut butter" during last year's Breeders' Cup, and apparently a number of horses weren't handling it particularly well. It might be best to forgot about those poor performances and pretend they never happened; instead judging Daddy Long Legs and Prospective on their previous and subsequent races.

* Not that this fact means anything, but it is interesting to note that Dullahan's winning time of 1:47.94 in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) is among the fastest renewals of the historic race. In fact, the only colts to have ever won the race in a faster time are Skip Away (1:47.29), Chief's Crown (1:47 3/5), Arts and Letters (1:47 4/5), Forward Pass (1:47 4/5), Ridan (1:47 3/5), and Round Table (1:47 2/5). That's pretty good company!

* Does anybody remember the old "within ten pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap" Derby handicapping technique? The old system advised a Derby handicapper to select a colt that had been rated, as the name implies, within ten pounds of the highweight on the Experimental Free Handicap. In recent years, this method has become all but useless -- Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird, and Big Brown weren't even given a ranking -- nowhere near ten pounds of the Experimental highweight -- but who knows, it might actually be a worthwhile technique this year.

Hansen and Union Rags were the co-highweights on the 2011 Experimental Free Handicap, each recieving a rating of 126 pounds. Of the horses rated within ten pounds of them, Creative Cause (124), Liaison (120), Dullahan (119), Rousing Sermon (119), Gemologist (118), Sabercat (116), and Trinniberg (116) are all running in the Derby. Other Derby contenders that received ranking on the 2011 Experimental include Alpha (114), El Padrino (114), Take Charge Indy (113), Done Talking (112), and I'll Have Another (111). Bodemeister, Daddy Long Legs, Daddy Nose Best, Mark Valeski, Prospective, and Went the Day Well were not rated.

(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman

KENTUCKY DERBY COUNTDOWN -- April 29th, 2012

Six days until the Derby . . .

ON THE WORK TAB


Churchill Downs

* Bodemeister was extremely sharp in his final pre-Derby workout, going five furlongs in :59 3/5 while working in company with Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) contender Jemima's Pearl. The track was muddy following a large hailstorm the night before, but Bodemeister seemed to handle the track very well and shouldn't mind if the track were to be muddy again on Derby day. It's worth remembering that Bodemeister's sire, Empire Maker, won the 2003 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in a sea of slop.

* Although he isn't in the race yet, Optimizer -- who currently sits 21st on the graded earnings list -- continues to train as though he will make the race. This morning, he went five furlongs in the good time of 1:00 2/5, closing his final eighth in :12 2/5 and his final quarter in :24 2/5. Should he make the Derby field, it is expected that Jon Court -- who rode the colt in both the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) -- would have the mount.

Palm Meadows Training Center

* It seems that trainer Todd Pletcher is pretty much alone at Palm Meadows right now, for seven of the eight horses that breezed there this morning are Pletcher trainees. That group of seven included his two Derby hopefuls, El Padrino and Gemologist, who each went a half-mile over a track labeled muddy. From the standpoint of final time, Gemologist's breeze was much more impressive, for his time of :50.39 -- while slow -- was the fastest work of the day, and nearly three seconds faster than El Padrino's :53.34. Both colts worked in company, with Gemologist breezing alongside 2011 Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) winner Disposablepleasure and El Padrino going in company with the talented maiden winner Windsurfer. Without knowing the details of either workout, it's difficult to for sure whether El Padrino's slow time was due to a disdain for the mud or just a slow opening pace, but it would have been nice to see something a bit quicker from a colt that has already proven himself to be rather fond of mud.

Kentucky Oaks Workouts

A trio of Kentucky Oaks contenders breezed this morning at a pair of racetracks, led by the tentative Oaks favorite Grace Hall, who went a half-mile in a slow :52.10 at Palm Meadows over a track labeled sloppy. At Churchill Downs, Jemima's Pearl -- as mentioned above -- breezed in company with Bodemeister, and was credited with a five-furlong work in 1:00 2/5, the fourth-fastest breeze of the day.

But by far the most impressive work was turned in by Believe You Can, who worked a bullet five furlongs at Churchill in :58 2/5, the fastest breeze of the day by 1 1/5 seconds. It was actually the second bullet breeze turned in by Believe You Can since arriving at Churchill, the other being a :59 flat work turned in on April 23rd. It appears as though the Fair Grounds Oaks (gr. II) winner is sitting on another big race heading into the Kentucky Oaks, where she will likely be among the favorites.

IN OTHER DERBY NEWS . . .

* Creative Cause, I'll Have Another, and Rousing Sermon arrived at Churchill yesterday afternoon in good order, and visited the racetrack this morning. Creative Cause is scheduled to breeze tomorrow. Also expected for tomorrow's work tab are Derby contenders Daddy Nose Best, Liaison, Mark Valeski, Sabercat, and Trinniberg, the latter expected to go an easy three-eighths of a mile.

* The questions of which jockeys will ride Alpha and Rousing Sermon remain open to debate, although it does sound as though Rajiv Maragh has pretty much secured the mount on Alpha. The Rousing Sermon mystery remains very much in question. I doubt it will happen, but how about Patrick Valenzuela, who returned to racing on April 26th?

* The first card of the spring meet at Churchill Downs was held last night, with the The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) the highlight of the day. The dominating rider was Julien Leparoux, who won four of the eleven races of the card. Miguel Mena won a pair of races, while Calvin Borel, Shaun Bridgmohan, Leandro Goncalves, Brian Hernandez, Jr., and John McKee each won one apiece. Gregory Foley was the leading trainer of the day, as his two starters each won, giving him a one-win lead over nine other trainers.

After briefly glancing at the results of the day's races, a couple of things stood out. For the first four races on the card, there didn't seem to be a distinct track bias. Every race was won by horses racing on or close to the lead, but those four winners included three favorites and a second choice. After the fourth race, a sudden hailstone left the racetrack sloppy and sealed. The next two races were won by horses making bold runs on the outside, but the seventh race went to Calvin Borel with a rail-skimming ride.

The next race was the Derby Trial, which was won in impressive fashion by Hierro, who made a strong bid on the outside to defeat Paynter by a length and a half. Paynter himself had made a strong run on the outside, but just couldn't keep up in the stretch. Third-place finisher Stealcase came into the stretch four wide, while Bourbon Courage rounded out the superfecta after a wide trip. The only colt that even remotely ran well along the fence was The Black, who led into the stretch before flattening out and finishing fifth.

The ninth race was won by Speedacious, who -- according to the Equibase chart -- "set the pace off the rail". The runner-up "pressed the pace three wide." I Knot, who finished third, raced "within striking distance off the rail, moved out for wide leaving the turn . . ." Miss Dora, who finished fourth, raced "within reach off the inside". Bella Diamante and Cascadilla Falls, both raced along the rail and tired badly.

In race ten, the top five finishers in the seven horse field raced on the outside, while the two trailers tired badly after shifting to the rail for racing room.

The final race of the day continued the trend, as outside horses swept the top five positions while horses making inside bids tired badly.

In conclusion, it would appear as though an outside bias dominated the final races of the card, getting progressively stronger as the night advanced. It is doubtful that this bias will continue once the track dries out, but it's something to watch out for during the next couple of Churchill race cards.

(Note: Be sure to check out our Kentucky Derby Handicapping Contest, in which one lucky handicapper will win a free copy of "The 10 Best Kentucky Derbies," published by Eclipse Press. Read the details here!)

-Keelerman