Boisterous finishes fast to win Knickerbocker Stakes

Favored Boisterous showcased a terrific turn-of-foot in the Belmont Park homestretch to win the $150,000 Knickerbocker Stakes (gr. III) for the second consecutive year.

Ridden to victory by Jose Lezcano, Boisterous was content to settle back along the rail in fourth place early on, three to four lengths behind pace-setting Stormy Lord, who led the way through fractions of :24.72 and :49.37 while being tracked along the rail by Bombaguia and on the outside by Tune Me In. Barocci, Sky Blazer, and See Tobe were at the rear of the field.

Stormy Lord continued to lead through three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.98 seconds, and entered the homestretch still in front. But Boisterous was putting in a tremendous rally on the far outside, sweeping into contention at the eighth pole before going clear to win by two lengths in 1:50.26 seconds over a course labeled good.

See Tobe rallied from last at the eighth pole to secure second by a nose over Tune Me In, while Stormy Lord rounded out the superfecta. Bombaguia, Sky Blazer, and Barocci completed the order of finish.

The winner is a five-year-old son of Distorted Humor out of the Cox's Ridge mare Emanating. Trained by Shug McGaughey and owned by Phipps Stable, Boisterous has now compiled a record of 8-1-2 from 20 starts, with earnings of $646,390.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- October 13th, 2012

Compared to the last two Saturdays, this Saturday is a bit light in terms of major racing action -- there's only one grade I race on the scheduled, as opposed to the ten on September 29th and the seven on October 6th. Nevertheless, there are a number of intriguing races to be run, and it's still possible that a couple of today's entrants could come back and compete in the Breeders' Cup three weeks from now. So let's start handicapping!

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (gr. I)

There is a lot of talent in this deep eight-horse field, and picking the winner will not be an easy task. The morning line favorite is Stephanie's Kitten, a grade I winner and Breeders' Cup champion that most recent won the Lake Placid Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga. Clearly, she is a very good filly that deserves a great deal of respect, but making her first start in about two months, she may need to get a race under her belt.

If that is the case, than Samitar and Somali Lemonade, the 1-2 finishers in the Garden City Stakes (gr. I) on September 15th. Samitar has accomplished more during her career -- she is an Irish classic winner, don't forget -- but Somali Lemonade was closing fast in the Garden City, and won the Jessamine Stakes (gr. III) here at Keeneland as a juvenile. Don't overlook her just because she wasn't won in a year -- some of her losses have been deceptively good, and under the right conditions, she can win this race.

Tannery, an Irish-bred filly that rallied to be third in the Garden City, could also contend in her second U.S. start. Off turf would greatly help her chances.

Centre Court beat Stephanie's Kitten two starts back in the Lake George Stakes (gr. II), then finished a half-length behind her in the Lake Placid. Her biggest advantage over Stephanie's Kitten may be that she possesses a bit more tactical speed, and in a race that lacks speed, that could enable her to get the jump on her rival and potentially hand her another defeat.

Dayatthespa has won all four of her starts this year, including a grade III here at Keeneland. Trained by Chad Brown, who has really been on a roll recently, Dayattthespa is the only true speed horse in the race, and that natural edge may give her an insurmountable advantage over her rivals.

Better Lucky won a grade II three starts back, but was soundly beaten in the Lake Placid last time out. Treasured Up won an allowance race here at Keeneland during the spring meet, but has yet to win a stakes race and appears to be in a bit deep.

Like I said, this is a tough race to handicap, but I am going to side with Dayattthespa and hope that her speed will enable her to win the race in gate-to-wire fashion. She soundly beat Somali Lemonade two starts back, and if she runs back to that effort, I'm confident that she will be the one to beat in the homestretch.

Selection: Dayattthespa

Knickerbocker Stakes (gr. II)

Even though Boisterous is coming off of a ninth-place finish in the Arlington Million (gr. I), his overall record makes him the one to beat as he attempts to win this race for the second straight year. His main opposition may come from Sky Blazer, who most recently finished third in the Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II), rallying well into a slow pace after getting off to a very poor start.

Bombaguia could contend if he runs as well as he did last time out in the Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II), in which he set a very slow pace before losing by a head in the final strides. Shortening up in distance should help his chances.

The Japanese-bred Barocci is intriguing, for the Cristophe Clement-trainee has run quite well in a quartet of allowance races during the summer, but nine furlongs may be a tad bit too short for him.

Selection: Bombaguia

Spend a Buck Handicap (gr. III)

Morning line favorite Cash Rules has compiled an excellent record at Calder this season, winning three stakes races and placing second in two others. However, he will be giving away between 4 to 10 pounds to his six rivals, and I believe that under those conditions he can be beat.

The colt I like is the three-year-old Csaba, who is coming off of dull efforts in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) and the Equalize Stakes. However, he had excuses in both cases, and he is now returning to the track over which his best efforts have come. Plus, he is receiving seven pounds from Cash Rules.

Selection: Csaba

Hawthorne Derby (gr. III)

With so many horses entered in this nine-furlong turf race, and with rain expected, and with no clear-cut favorite entered, this race looks like a real mess to handicap. All Squared Away, most recently seventh in the Del Mar Derby (gr. II), is the morning line favorite at 4-1. He's good on turf, and possesses a good late kick, but I think that Control Tower and Finale look better. The first-mentioned colt has won three straight races against lesser company, and showcased a terrific turn-of-foot last time out. Finale had good form as a two-year-old last year, winning the Summer Stakes (gr. III) and running well in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), but went to the sidelines and did not return to the races until August, when he ran tenth in the Equalizer Stakes at Saratoga in August. On the surface, that looks like a terrible effort, but was checked on the first turn and was only beaten 4 3/4 lengths in the end. Given his subsequent sharp training, I think that he is sitting on a pretty big effort today.

Selection: Control Tower

Lava Man California Cup Classic Stakes

John Scott is the morning line favorite based off of a solid victory in the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes and a sharp second in the San Diego Handicap (gr. II), and would loom as a very difficult horse to beat if this race were on a synthetic track. But this is dirt, and whether or not he will handle it is almost impossible to determine. His lone start on dirt yielded a so-so fourth in an allowance race -- but that was his first start in 2 1/2 years, and it was a 6-1/2 furlong sprint. So I guess the wisest thing to do is assume that John Scott's class will enable him to handle the dirt as well as the synthetics, although until he actually proves he can do so, we can't be positive.

Should John Scott disappoint on the dirt, then Rousing Sermon or Holladay Road could pull off an upset. The first-mentioned colt has not won in nine starts since taking the California Cup Juvenile Stakes last fall, but has run quite well in defeat numerous times and almost never fails to fire. Holladay Road was beaten just a neck in this race last year and is quite good over the Santa Anita dirt, so his less-than-stellar recent efforts over synthetic tracks can be forgiven.

Thirtyfirststreet has also shown an affinity for dirt, and could be an intriguing contender at odds of 8-1.

Selection: John Scott, with utmost respect for Rousing Sermon

-Keelerman

AIR SUPPORT WINS THE BOWLING GREEN STAKES!

Air Support rallied brilliantly inside the final quarter mile to secure a narrow victory in the $200,000 Bowling Green Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon at Belmont Park, his first victory since taking the 2010 Virginia Derby (gr. II) over a year ago.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Air Support got off to a good start in the ten-furlong turf race and soon settled into fourth place while racing along the rail, a couple of lengths behind pace-setting Bombaguia. Brujo de Olleros was racing in second going into the first turn, but was soon passed by Newsdad, who made a bold early run from last after a slow start to settle into second as the field moved down the backstretch. Brilliant Speed was the early trailer.

Bombaguia continued to lead the way through slow fractions of :26.06, :50.55, and 1:14.90, saving as much energy as possible for the stretch run. Rounding the far turn, Brilliant Speed and Air Support made simultaneous bids for the lead, and both looked ready to blow past the early leader, but Bombaguia turned them back easily at the top of the stretch and appeared to be on his way to victory. However, Air Support was able to find another gear inside the final eighth of a mile, slowly wearing down the leader to win the race by a head in 2:06.12 seconds.

Brilliant Speed finished a distant third, while Brujo de Olleros and Newsdad completed the order of finish. The winner is trained by Shug McGaughey and owned by Stuart Janney III.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- September 8th, 2012

With the Saratoga and Del Mar meets finally concluded, racing action in the United States is going to be a bit weak during the next couple of weeks, with only one grade I race scheduled to be run in this county between today and September 22nd. Nevertheless, there will be some intriguing grade II and III events in the meantime, and several such races are to be run later this afternoon at tracks across the country.

We shall begin our analysis with the $200,000 Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II), the first graded stakes race of the Belmont Park fall meet.

Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II)
Ten furlongs on the Belmont Park inner turf course

Entries:

PP	Horse	Jockey
1	Air Support	John Velazquez
2	Brilliant Speed	Javier Castellano
3	Newsdad	Junior Alvarado
4	Bombaguia	Edgar Prado
5	Brujo de Olleros	Julien Leparoux
6	Redeemed	No rider

Note: Redeemed has been entered for the main-track only, and is expected to scratch.

While the field may be on the small side, there is no denying that there is a lot of talent in the race. The morning line favorite, excluding Redeemed, is Air Support, from the barn of Shug McGaughey. The four-year-old son of Smart Strike had an exceptional season last year, winning the Virginia Derby (gr. II) and Transylvania Stakes (gr. III) with impressive late runs. But this year, yielding turf and slow paces have kept him from finding the winner's circle in five starts, although he has turned in some excellent efforts. Three starts back, he rallied well after a poor start to finish second in the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup Stakes behind Turbo Compressor, then finished second to that rival again in the $750,000 United Nations Stakes (gr. I) while running his final eighth in about :11.14 seconds. His most recent effort was less-than-stellar, as he finished a weakening third in an allowance race at Saratoga, but a slow pace, yielding turf, and a short distance were probably responsible. Stretching back out to ten furlongs today, he should have every chance at finally returning to the winner's circle, although there doesn't appear to be a lot of pace in this spot.

Brilliant Speed was also very good last year, winning the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) and Saranac Stakes (gr. III) in addition to placing in the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), Belmont Stakes (gr. I), and Jamaica Handicap (gr. I), but has finished no better than third in five starts this year. However, he has actually been in sneakily good form, turning in a particularly good effort two starts back when sixth in the United Nation Stakes (gr. I). That day, he was reserved too far off of a slow pace, and when the winner turned in a final eighth of about :11 1/5 seconds, Brilliant Speed had no shot at rallying for the victory, but still closed his final eighth in less than eleven seconds to make up some ground. Last time out, he finished third in the Sword Dancer Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga behind the exceptional Point of Entry, but showed more speed than usual and could find himself right near the lead today while taking a small drop in class. From there, he should be able to out-kick his rivals with a little bit of luck.

Newsdad looked like a potential star early this year when he won the Pan American Stakes (gr. II) by an impressive two lengths, but seems to have gone off-form since then, finishing fifth in the Elkhorn Stakes (gr. II), fourth in the Man o' War Stakes (gr. I), and fourth in the Sword Dancer Handicap (gr. I). He could certainly benefit from the expected lack of pace in today's event, as he has shown enough speed in the past to be on the lead; a return to form would make him quite dangerous, but it's hard to say for certain if even his best could defeat Air Support and Brilliant Speed.

The lightly-raced Brujo de Olleros has only made six starts, with the first five of those coming in Uruagay, where he was a group I winner. However, in his American debut, he finished an unimpressive fourth in the Majestic Light Stakes at Monmouth Park, and he is now stretching out farther than he has ever raced before and trying turf for the first time. The obstacles against him seem formidable, but he does have Julien Leparoux in the saddle, and in this five-horse field, hitting the board is certainly a possibility, and who knows? Perhaps he'll relish the turf and dominate!

Bombaguia has only won three times in sixteen starts, but is coming off of a solid victory in a 1 3/16th miles turf allowance race at Saratoga and seems to be in good form. Plus, he could potentially be the early leader if no one else is sent early, which is a distinct possibility. But this is a big step up in class, and he'll have to be good to hold off Brilliant Speed and Air Support.

My selection is Brilliant Speed, with all due respect to Air Support. I've thought all year that Brilliant Speed has been in better form than he appears to be, and this looks like the spot for him to get back in the winner's circle. I envision him tracking the early pace before accelerating strongly in the homestretch to hold off a late run from Air Support.

Other Race of Note

At Arlington Park . . .

Race 7: The Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III) is lead by the undefeated Muppet Man, winner of the Meadowlake Stakes here at Arlington in his last start. He is running a furlong farther today than he has even run in the past, but the way he won the Meadowlake, I doubt that it will be much of an issue. Mylute, who broke his maiden going six furlongs last time out, and Pataky Kid, with Garrett Gomez aboard, are also expected to contend in this wide-open race.

Race 8: The Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes (gr. III), the fillies equivalent of the Futurity, has drawn a practically indecipherable field of fourteen lightly-raced juveniles. The morning line favorite is Gold Edge, winner of the Lisa M. Stakes last time out, but there are at least a half-dozen other obvious win contenders, which is reflected by the fact that the co-longest shot on the board, American Sugar, is a stakes winner!

At Belmont Park . . .

Race 4: The $80,000 Affiliate Stakes may not appear to be a very prestigious event on the surface, but the six-furlong overnight stakes marks the return of Sean Avery, unraced since winning the 2011 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I). On talent alone, he can contend, but if he isn't quite ready to win in his first start back, then nine-time stakes winner Royal Currier or the talented Crossbow could certainly pull off a mild upset.

At Louisiana Downs . . .

Race 3: The $50,000 Temperence Hill Stakes is another minor stakes that has drawn a major name, the name in question here being Gantry. The five-year-old gelding won the Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II) earlier this year to guarantee himself a berth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), and his connections have chosen this spot as his prep race. He looks like a deserving odds-on favorite, with Kelly's Landing Stakes winner Delaunay and the graded stakes-placed Jake Mo looking like logical upset contenders if the favorite were to disappoint.

Race 10: An evenly-matched field of nine three-year-olds have been entered in the $500,000 Super Derby (gr. II), with Swaps Stakes (gr. II) winner Blueskiesnrainbows the favorite at 3-2. While it is true that his biggest win came over a synthetic track, the Bob Baffert-trainee did finish a terrific third in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) back in April, and should have no trouble handling the dirt today. Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Hero of Order, two-time group I winner Fly Lexis Fly, grade I-placed Rousing Sermon, and West Virginia Derby (gr. II) runner-up Bourbon Courage also loom as intriguing contenders.

At Presque Isle Downs . . .

Race 6: The star of the $400,000 Presque Isle Downs Masters Stakes (gr. II) is Groupie Doll, who is making her first start since suffering a minor injury earlier this year. Obviously, the main question is simply whether or not she's ready to win in her first start back, but if she is anywhere near the form that brought her victories in the Madison Stakes (gr. I) and Humana Distaff (gr. I) earlier this year, she should win this race. The speedy It's Me Mom could make things interesting if she fires her best shot, but she is somewhat inconsistent, and you never know when she's going to falter badly. Salty Strike has won three straight, but was badly beaten by Groupie Doll in the Humana Distaff and has drawn a poor post.

-Keelerman

Bowling Green Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $200,000 Bowling Green Stakes (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The 1 3/8th miles turf race has drawn a small but talented field of six, including 2011 Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) winner Brilliant Speed, 2011 Virginia Derby (gr. II) winner Air Support, and the Brazilian-bred group I winner Brujo de Olleros.

1 Air Support
2 Brilliant Speed
3 Newsdad
4 Bombaguia
5 Brujo de Olleros
6 Redeemed

Note: Redeemed has been entered for the main-track only.

-Keelerman