Compared to the
last two Saturdays, this Saturday is a bit light in terms of major racing
action -- there's only one grade I race on the scheduled, as opposed to the ten
on September 29th and the seven on October 6th. Nevertheless, there are a
number of intriguing races to be run, and it's still possible that a couple of
today's entrants could come back and compete in the Breeders' Cup three weeks
from now. So let's start handicapping!
Queen Elizabeth II
Challenge Cup Stakes (gr. I)
There is a lot of
talent in this deep eight-horse field, and picking the winner will not be an
easy task. The morning line favorite is Stephanie's Kitten, a grade I
winner and Breeders' Cup champion that most recent won the Lake Placid Stakes
(gr. II) at Saratoga. Clearly, she is a very good filly that deserves a great
deal of respect, but making her first start in about two months, she may need
to get a race under her belt.
If that is the
case, than Samitar and Somali Lemonade, the 1-2 finishers in the
Garden City Stakes (gr. I) on September 15th. Samitar has accomplished more
during her career -- she is an Irish classic winner, don't forget -- but Somali
Lemonade was closing fast in the Garden City, and won the Jessamine Stakes (gr.
III) here at Keeneland as a juvenile. Don't overlook her just because she
wasn't won in a year -- some of her losses have been deceptively good, and
under the right conditions, she can win this race.
Tannery, an Irish-bred filly that rallied to be third in the
Garden City, could also contend in her second U.S. start. Off turf would
greatly help her chances.
Centre Court beat Stephanie's Kitten two starts back in the Lake
George Stakes (gr. II), then finished a half-length behind her in the Lake
Placid. Her biggest advantage over Stephanie's Kitten may be that she possesses
a bit more tactical speed, and in a race that lacks speed, that could enable
her to get the jump on her rival and potentially hand her another defeat.
Dayatthespa has won all four of her starts this year, including a
grade III here at Keeneland. Trained by Chad Brown, who has really been on a
roll recently, Dayattthespa is the only true speed horse in the race, and that
natural edge may give her an insurmountable advantage over her rivals.
Better Lucky won a grade II three starts back, but was soundly beaten
in the Lake Placid last time out. Treasured Up won an allowance race
here at Keeneland during the spring meet, but has yet to win a stakes race and
appears to be in a bit deep.
Like I said, this
is a tough race to handicap, but I am going to side with Dayattthespa and
hope that her speed will enable her to win the race in gate-to-wire fashion.
She soundly beat Somali Lemonade two starts back, and if she runs back to that
effort, I'm confident that she will be the one to beat in the homestretch.
Selection: Dayattthespa
Knickerbocker
Stakes (gr. II)
Even though Boisterous
is coming off of a ninth-place finish in the Arlington Million (gr. I), his
overall record makes him the one to beat as he attempts to win this race for
the second straight year. His main opposition may come from Sky Blazer,
who most recently finished third in the Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II),
rallying well into a slow pace after getting off to a very poor start.
Bombaguia could contend if he runs as well as he did last time out
in the Bowling Green Handicap (gr. II), in which he set a very slow pace before
losing by a head in the final strides. Shortening up in distance should help
his chances.
The Japanese-bred Barocci
is intriguing, for the Cristophe Clement-trainee has run quite well in a
quartet of allowance races during the summer, but nine furlongs may be a tad
bit too short for him.
Selection: Bombaguia
Spend a Buck
Handicap (gr. III)
Morning line
favorite Cash Rules has compiled an excellent record at Calder this
season, winning three stakes races and placing second in two others. However,
he will be giving away between 4 to 10 pounds to his six rivals, and I believe
that under those conditions he can be beat.
The colt I like is
the three-year-old Csaba, who is coming off of dull efforts in the
Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) and the Equalize Stakes. However, he had excuses in
both cases, and he is now returning to the track over which his best efforts
have come. Plus, he is receiving seven pounds from Cash Rules.
Selection: Csaba
Hawthorne Derby
(gr. III)
With so many horses
entered in this nine-furlong turf race, and with rain expected, and with no
clear-cut favorite entered, this race looks like a real mess to handicap. All
Squared Away, most recently seventh in the Del Mar Derby (gr. II), is the
morning line favorite at 4-1. He's good on turf, and possesses a good late
kick, but I think that Control Tower and Finale look better. The
first-mentioned colt has won three straight races against lesser company, and
showcased a terrific turn-of-foot last time out. Finale had good form as a
two-year-old last year, winning the Summer Stakes (gr. III) and running well in
the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), but went to the sidelines and did not
return to the races until August, when he ran tenth in the Equalizer Stakes at
Saratoga in August. On the surface, that looks like a terrible effort, but was
checked on the first turn and was only beaten 4 3/4 lengths in the end. Given
his subsequent sharp training, I think that he is sitting on a pretty big
effort today.
Selection: Control
Tower
Lava Man California
Cup Classic Stakes
John Scott is the morning line favorite based off of a solid
victory in the Harry F. Brubaker Stakes and a sharp second in the San Diego
Handicap (gr. II), and would loom as a very difficult horse to beat if this
race were on a synthetic track. But this is dirt, and whether or not he will
handle it is almost impossible to determine. His lone start on dirt yielded a
so-so fourth in an allowance race -- but that was his first start in 2 1/2
years, and it was a 6-1/2 furlong sprint. So I guess the wisest thing to do is
assume that John Scott's class will enable him to handle the dirt as well as the
synthetics, although until he actually proves he can do so, we can't be
positive.
Should John Scott
disappoint on the dirt, then Rousing Sermon or Holladay Road
could pull off an upset. The first-mentioned colt has not won in nine starts
since taking the California Cup Juvenile Stakes last fall, but has run quite
well in defeat numerous times and almost never fails to fire. Holladay Road was
beaten just a neck in this race last year and is quite good over the Santa
Anita dirt, so his less-than-stellar recent efforts over synthetic tracks can
be forgiven.
Thirtyfirststreet has also shown an affinity for dirt, and could be an
intriguing contender at odds of 8-1.
Selection: John
Scott, with utmost respect for Rousing Sermon
-Keelerman
