Super Ninety Nine romps in Southwest Stakes

Even-money favorite Super Ninety Nine lived up to expectations in the $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on February 18th at Oaklawn Park, drawing away powerfully to win the 1 1/16th miles race by a staggering 11 1/4 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Rafael Bejarano, Super Ninety Nine flashed speed from the start and quickly took command of the lead, setting fractions of :23.33, :47.49, and 1:12.29 over a sloppy track while being tracked by Heaven's Runway, Big Lute, and Always in a Tiz. Officer Alex and Texas Bling were next in line, followed by Brown Almighty, Channel Isle, Fear the Kitten, and Will Take Charge.

As the field moved around the far turn, Super Ninety Nine began to widen his advantage without any pressure from Bejarano, and by the time he entered the homestretch, Super Ninety Nine was well clear of his closest pursuers. The results of the race were never in doubt after that, with Super Ninety Nine extending his lead in breathtaking fashion to win the race in 1:44.84 seconds.

Fear the Kitten closed well on the outside to finish second, 2 1/4 lengths in front of Heaven's Runway. Channel Isle turned in a mild rally to complete the superfecta, while Always in a Tiz, Will Take Charge, Big Lute, Brown Almighty, Texas Bling, and Officer Alex completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Tanma Corporation. A son of Pulpit out of the Unbridled's Song mare Exogenetic, Super Ninety Nine has now compiled a record of 3-1-0 from 5 starts, with earnings of $266,480.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-18-13

Deciphering this afternoon's $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn Park basically comes down to one question: Will Bob Baffert's promising allowance winner Super Ninety Nine romp to another impressive victory?

If you answer "yes" to that question, that's fine. You're handicapping is done. But if you answer "no", then you had better be prepared for a couple more hours of work.

It's pretty much that simple. Bob Baffert has dominated Oaklawn's Derby preps in recent years, sweeping the 2012 Arkansas Derby, the 2012 Rebel Stakes, the 2011 Rebel Stakes, the 2010 Rebel Stakes, and both divisions of the 2012 Southwest Stakes. That's more than a little impressive. So, if you think that he's going to continue his streak, then there's no reason in the world why you wouldn't pick Super Ninety Nine. He's a nice colt, no doubt. He earned a Beyer speed figure of 100 for his allowance win, and he had previously placed second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) last November. He possesses a great deal of tactical speed, and should be prominent from the start of the Southwest.

On the other hand, it is worth noting that in 2012 -- when Baffert swept all three of the graded Derby preps -- the California-based colts were, in general, better than those from the rest of the country. Remember, California colts swept the Derby 1-2, the Preakness 1-2-3, the Haskell 1-2, and a variety of Derby preps across the nation as well. This year, the opposite appears to be true -- the California colts have been having trouble holding their own against their Eastern-based rivals. After all, Shanghai Bobby and Violence came east to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and CashCall Futurity (gr. I), and just yesterday, the well-regarded California-shipper Title Contender was beaten in an allowance race here at Oaklawn.

But if you think that the California colts aren't up to par this year, and wish to pass on Super Ninety Nine in favor of the locals, you're soon going to find that very little separates the locals in terms of talent. For example, five of the ten colts entered in the Southwest are exiting the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, where they ran 1-2-3-5-6. The top three finishers -- Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, and Always in a Tiz -- were separated by little more than a neck at the finish. Brown Almighty, who finished fourth, was ten lengths behind them, but came out of the race with a lung infection that surely compromised his performance. And Officer Alex (6th) raced wide throughout and made a nice middle move before retreating in the final quarter mile.

My point? Determining which of these five colts will emerge the best today will not be easy.

The remaining four entrants have equally cloudy form. Big Lute was brilliant winning a six-furlong maiden special weight earlier this month, but how will he fare around two turns? Fear the Kitten turned in a decent rally to be third in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), but was beaten thirteen lengths by the winner. Channel Isle showed determination to win a one-mile allowance race here at Oaklawn last month, but the third-place finisher was absolutely crushed in an allowance race yesterday afternoon, which doesn't bode well for Channel Isle's chances. Heaven's Runway won a stakes at Presque Isle Downs last year, but has been disappointing in every start beyond 6-1/2 furlongs and isn't really bred to go this far.

So what does it all mean? The way I interpret it, Super Ninety Nine holds a tactical advantage and should be able to steal this race in gate-to-wire fashion. Will Take Charge looks like the best of the Smarty Jones runners, as I was highly impressed by the way he won despite getting hung wide on both turns. And given how well the Midnight Lute’s offspring have been running lately, Big Lute should have every chance at carrying his form around two turns and making his presence felt to the wire.

-Keelerman

Southwest Stakes entries: Super Ninety Nine invades from California

Super Ninety Nine, who was highly impressive winning an allowance race last month for trainer Bob Baffert, will ship in from California to contest the $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on Monday at Oaklawn Park.

The 1 1/16th miles race has drawn nine other horses, including Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, and Always in a Tiz, the 1-2-3 finishers in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes here at Oaklawn last month. Impressive maiden winner Big Lute and LeComte Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Fear the Kitten are other prominent contenders.

Stakes winners Brown Almighty and Officer Alex will be looking to rebound from fifth- and sixth-place efforts in the Smarty Jones. Fitz Dixon Memorial Juvenile Stakes winner Heaven's Runway and recent allowance winner Channel Isle round out the field.

Post Positions
1 Officer Alex
2 Brown Almighty
3 Will Take Charge
4 Texas Bling
5 Always in a Tiz
6 Super Ninety Nine
7 Fear the Kitten
8 Heaven's Runway
9 Channel Isle
10 Big Lute

-Keelerman

Will Take Charge hangs on in Smarty Jones Stakes

12-1 shot Will Take Charge gave trainer D. Wayne Lukas his second win in a Kentucky Derby prep race this weekend when he out-fought Texas Bling and held off Always in a Tiz to win the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes by a neck.

Ridden to victory by Jon Court, Will Take Charge got off to a decent start at the beginning of the one-mile race, but was caught six-wide entering the first turn and was still four-wide by the time the field entered the backstretch. Despite this difficult trip, Will Take Charge was able to recover well enough to settle into fourth-place as Avare and Texas Bling led the way through fractions of :23.11 and :46.65 seconds. King Henny, Always in a Tiz, Brown Almighty, and Officer Alex were are within a few lengths of the lead, while Best of Birdstone and Stormy Holiday were the trailers.

Moving around the final turn, Will Take Charge began to advance on the far outside, drawing to within a head of Texas Bling following three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.89. He appeared capable of going right on by, but Texas Bling dug in tenaciously, and the two young colts put on a thrilling show from the top of the stretch all the way to the wire. It was unfortunate that one had to lose, but eventually, Texas Bling yielded just a bit, and Will Take Charge won by a neck in 1:38.64 seconds.

Always in a Tiz rallied fast in the final strides to finish third, and surely would have won had the race been just a few strides longer. Stormy Holiday finished fourth, 4 3/4 lengths behind the top trio. Brown Almighty, Officer Alex, Avare, Best of Birdstone, and King Henny completed the order of finish.

The winner, a son of Unbridled's Song out of Dehere mare Take Charge Lady, is owned by Willis D. Horton.

-Keelerman

Smarty Jones Stakes Entries: Avare ships in for O'Neill

California-shipper Avare, winner of the Eddie Logan Stakes for trainer Doug O'Neill, will attempt to add another stakes victory to his record when he heads to post as the likely favorite in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes on Monday at Oaklawn Park.

Lined up to face Avare in this deep race include Brown Almighty, winner of the Sunny's Halo Stakes and runner-up in two other stakes events; Always in a Tiz, runner-up to Jerome Stakes (gr. II) winner Vyjack in the Traskwood Stakes; Officer Alex, winner of the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes; King Henny, a two-time stakes winner coming off a win in the Big Drama Stakes on January 5th; Texas Bling and Will Take Charge, the 1-2 finishers in the $300,000 Springboard Mile Stakes last month; Best of Birdstone, winner of the Razorback Futurity; and Stormy Holiday, a two-time winner that was most recently fourth in the Bellamy Road Stakes. All told, six of the nine entrants have won stakes races, a very impressive statistic indeed!

The Smarty Jones Stakes is one-mile in distance and is the first of Oaklawn's official Kentucky Derby prep races. The Smarty Jones will award ten Kentucky Derby qualification points to the winner, as well as four points to the runner-up, two to the third-place finisher, and one to the fourth horse across the wire.

Post Positions
1 Stormy Holiday
2 Always in a Tiz
3 Avare
4 Texas Bling
5 Best of Birdstone
6 Officer Alex
7 King Henny
8 Brown Almighty
9 Will Take Charge

-Keelerman

Balance the Books wins again in Bourbon Stakes

Balance the Books picked up his second consecutive graded stakes victory when he rallied from last to win the $150,000 Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) at Keeneland by a nose.

Under a patient ride from Julien Leparoux, Balance the Books hopped just a bit at the start and was away last, content to trail the field by about ten lengths as Road Agent led the way through fractions of :23.13 and :47.57. Really Sharp was racing in second, followed by Strike the Note, Ruler of Love, and Slamarama. Summit County, Roman's Avenue, and Sonofasamurai were next in line, while Fredericksburg, Brown Almighty, Army Hero, and Balance the Books trailed the field.

Road Agent continued to show the way through three-quarters of a mile in 1:13.40, but turning for home he began to tire, allowing Really Sharp to take command of the lead. But passing the eighth pole, Really Sharp drifted out badly, impeding Strike the Note, Summit County, and Sonofasamurai. However, one colt that was not seriously impeded was Balance the Books, who managed to rally far enough outside to avoid the traffic and get up for a narrow victory over Really Sharp, stopping the clock for 1 1/16th miles on turf in 1:45.15.

Really Sharp finished 1 1/2 lengths clear of third-place finisher Brown Almighty, but was disqualified and placed sixth for interfering with Strike the Note. Thus, the official order of finish was Balance the Books, Brown Almighty, Sonofasamurai, Summit County, Strike the Note, Really Sharp, Fredericksburg, Roman's Avenue, Ruler of Love, Slamarama, Army Hero, and Road Agent.

The winner, a son of Lemon Drop Kid out of the Seeking the Gold mare Kreisleriana, is trained by Chad Brown and owned by Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence. He had previously won the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga over Joha, who came back to win the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) here at Keeneland on Saturday.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- October 7th, 2012

While today might not be quite as busy as yesterday in terms of racing action, there are still a number of intriguing races to be run, including the grade I Spinster Stakes at Keeneland. Let's start handicapping!

Bourbon Stakes (gr. III)

Let's see here . . . in the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga last month, a colt named Balance the Books rallied past Joha to win in good fashion . . . yesterday, Joha came back and won the grade I Breeders' Futurity . . . today, Balance the Books goes for a win in the Bourbon Stakes . . .

Clearly, Balance the Books beat a good horse in the With Anticipation, and the colt looks like a solid favorite in this afternoon's Bourbon. Trained by Chad Brown, the colt showcased a terrific turn-of-foot in the With Anticipation, and a repeat of that effort would make him very difficult to beat.

Perhaps the colt most likely to pull an upset is Sonofasamurai, who broke his maiden second time out at Saratoga by three lengths, in which he closed his final sixteenth in :5.89 seconds. From the barn of Kenny McPeek, he will likely be toward the rear of the pack early on, along with Balance the Books, but it's very possible that he possesses the ability to out-kick the favorite and win the race.

Brown Almighty is also intriguing. The son of Big Brown won his first two starts in good fashion, including the Sunny's Halo Stakes, before losing the Sunday Silence Stakes by a neck to Java's War. Seeing how that colt came back to finish a close third in the Breeders' Futurity, it appears as though Brown Almighty is a very capable colt that could more than hold his own against these runners.

Fredericksburg and Slamarama both possess decent tactical speed, and should be prominently placed early, but they haven't showcased the kind of late kick that will likely be needed to win this race.

Selection: Sonofasamurai

Spinster Stakes (gr. I)

This intriguing nine-furlong race has drawn a combination of dirt and turf horses hoping to find success on Polytrack. Last year's winner Aruna is back to try and win it again, but although she has run well this year, she may have been in slightly better form last fall.

So, if you think she can be beat as the favorite, there are plenty of other fillies to choose from. In Lingerie has proven herself to be a very capable three-year-old filly, winning the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) and Bourbonette Oaks (gr. III), in addition to placing in the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I). Perhaps the best thing about her is that she is 2-for-2 over synthetic tracks, but she will be facing some good mares today, and it's difficult to say how she'll fare against her elders.

Tiz Miz Sue has proven herself to be a capable competitor on dirt, winning the Azeri Stakes (gr. III) and placing in races like the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I), Delaware Handicap (gr. II), and Obeah Stakes (gr. III) during this year alone, but she hasn't run on a synthetic track since 2009, when she compiled a record of 1-2-0 in three starts over the Arlington Polytrack. Chances are, she will be able to handle the Keeneland Polytrack just fine, and assuming she does, she may be the most likely winner of this race.

Mystical Star won the New York Stakes (gr. II) in speedy fashion during the Belmont Park spring meet, defeating Aruna by a length, and is 2-for-2 over the Keeneland Polytrack. She is versatile enough to be near the front or well behind, depending upon the pace scenario, and looks like a legitimate win contender.

Karlovy Vary won the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) during the Keeneland spring meet, but was badly beaten last time out in the Garden City Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park. At her best, she would be intriguing, but until she returns to her spring form, it's difficult to pick her in a race like this.

Selection: Mystical Star

Grey Stakes (gr. III)

Uncaptured has won all four of his starts, including three stakes, by a combined 9 3/4 lengths. He's stretching out beyond seven furlongs for the first time, but being a son of Lion Heart out of an Arch mare, he should handle the additional distance without any trouble. He is actually the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby, which says something about his talent.

One colt that has proven himself over a route of ground is Tesseron, a son of Tapit that rallied for an eye-catching victory in a one-mile, seventy-yard maiden special weight at Woodbine last month. He appears to be a talented colt, but time will tell if he is in the same class as the favorite.

River Seven finished third to Uncaptured in the Clarendon Stakes, second to him in the Vandal Stakes, and second to Tesseron in that one's maiden victory. Stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth, the son of Johannesburg should be rallying hard at the finish, and the added distance may allow him to catch Uncaptured.

Selection: River Seven

L.A. Woman Stakes

It's hard to look past Winding Way in this four-horse field, as the three-year-old filly is undefeated in three starts, including an eye-catching victory in the Rancho Bernardo Handicap (gr. III) at Del Mar. There are only two concerns: First, she has never run on dirt. Second, she missed a considerable amount of training with a foot issue following the Rancho Bernardo. She has trained well since then, but she may need to get a race under her belt before returning to peak form.

Thus, I'm am going to take a shot with Rumor, who most recently finished third to Winding Way in the Rancho Bernardo. Winner of the Kalookan Queen Handicap at Santa Anita back in January, her decent tactical speed may enable her to grab the early lead, slow down the pace, and hold off Winding Way's late challenge to win the race.

Selection: Rumor

-Keelerman