Super Ninety Nine romps in Southwest Stakes

Even-money favorite Super Ninety Nine lived up to expectations in the $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on February 18th at Oaklawn Park, drawing away powerfully to win the 1 1/16th miles race by a staggering 11 1/4 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Rafael Bejarano, Super Ninety Nine flashed speed from the start and quickly took command of the lead, setting fractions of :23.33, :47.49, and 1:12.29 over a sloppy track while being tracked by Heaven's Runway, Big Lute, and Always in a Tiz. Officer Alex and Texas Bling were next in line, followed by Brown Almighty, Channel Isle, Fear the Kitten, and Will Take Charge.

As the field moved around the far turn, Super Ninety Nine began to widen his advantage without any pressure from Bejarano, and by the time he entered the homestretch, Super Ninety Nine was well clear of his closest pursuers. The results of the race were never in doubt after that, with Super Ninety Nine extending his lead in breathtaking fashion to win the race in 1:44.84 seconds.

Fear the Kitten closed well on the outside to finish second, 2 1/4 lengths in front of Heaven's Runway. Channel Isle turned in a mild rally to complete the superfecta, while Always in a Tiz, Will Take Charge, Big Lute, Brown Almighty, Texas Bling, and Officer Alex completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Tanma Corporation. A son of Pulpit out of the Unbridled's Song mare Exogenetic, Super Ninety Nine has now compiled a record of 3-1-0 from 5 starts, with earnings of $266,480.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-18-13

Deciphering this afternoon's $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn Park basically comes down to one question: Will Bob Baffert's promising allowance winner Super Ninety Nine romp to another impressive victory?

If you answer "yes" to that question, that's fine. You're handicapping is done. But if you answer "no", then you had better be prepared for a couple more hours of work.

It's pretty much that simple. Bob Baffert has dominated Oaklawn's Derby preps in recent years, sweeping the 2012 Arkansas Derby, the 2012 Rebel Stakes, the 2011 Rebel Stakes, the 2010 Rebel Stakes, and both divisions of the 2012 Southwest Stakes. That's more than a little impressive. So, if you think that he's going to continue his streak, then there's no reason in the world why you wouldn't pick Super Ninety Nine. He's a nice colt, no doubt. He earned a Beyer speed figure of 100 for his allowance win, and he had previously placed second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) last November. He possesses a great deal of tactical speed, and should be prominent from the start of the Southwest.

On the other hand, it is worth noting that in 2012 -- when Baffert swept all three of the graded Derby preps -- the California-based colts were, in general, better than those from the rest of the country. Remember, California colts swept the Derby 1-2, the Preakness 1-2-3, the Haskell 1-2, and a variety of Derby preps across the nation as well. This year, the opposite appears to be true -- the California colts have been having trouble holding their own against their Eastern-based rivals. After all, Shanghai Bobby and Violence came east to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and CashCall Futurity (gr. I), and just yesterday, the well-regarded California-shipper Title Contender was beaten in an allowance race here at Oaklawn.

But if you think that the California colts aren't up to par this year, and wish to pass on Super Ninety Nine in favor of the locals, you're soon going to find that very little separates the locals in terms of talent. For example, five of the ten colts entered in the Southwest are exiting the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, where they ran 1-2-3-5-6. The top three finishers -- Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, and Always in a Tiz -- were separated by little more than a neck at the finish. Brown Almighty, who finished fourth, was ten lengths behind them, but came out of the race with a lung infection that surely compromised his performance. And Officer Alex (6th) raced wide throughout and made a nice middle move before retreating in the final quarter mile.

My point? Determining which of these five colts will emerge the best today will not be easy.

The remaining four entrants have equally cloudy form. Big Lute was brilliant winning a six-furlong maiden special weight earlier this month, but how will he fare around two turns? Fear the Kitten turned in a decent rally to be third in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), but was beaten thirteen lengths by the winner. Channel Isle showed determination to win a one-mile allowance race here at Oaklawn last month, but the third-place finisher was absolutely crushed in an allowance race yesterday afternoon, which doesn't bode well for Channel Isle's chances. Heaven's Runway won a stakes at Presque Isle Downs last year, but has been disappointing in every start beyond 6-1/2 furlongs and isn't really bred to go this far.

So what does it all mean? The way I interpret it, Super Ninety Nine holds a tactical advantage and should be able to steal this race in gate-to-wire fashion. Will Take Charge looks like the best of the Smarty Jones runners, as I was highly impressed by the way he won despite getting hung wide on both turns. And given how well the Midnight Lute’s offspring have been running lately, Big Lute should have every chance at carrying his form around two turns and making his presence felt to the wire.

-Keelerman

Southwest Stakes entries: Super Ninety Nine invades from California

Super Ninety Nine, who was highly impressive winning an allowance race last month for trainer Bob Baffert, will ship in from California to contest the $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on Monday at Oaklawn Park.

The 1 1/16th miles race has drawn nine other horses, including Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, and Always in a Tiz, the 1-2-3 finishers in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes here at Oaklawn last month. Impressive maiden winner Big Lute and LeComte Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Fear the Kitten are other prominent contenders.

Stakes winners Brown Almighty and Officer Alex will be looking to rebound from fifth- and sixth-place efforts in the Smarty Jones. Fitz Dixon Memorial Juvenile Stakes winner Heaven's Runway and recent allowance winner Channel Isle round out the field.

Post Positions
1 Officer Alex
2 Brown Almighty
3 Will Take Charge
4 Texas Bling
5 Always in a Tiz
6 Super Ninety Nine
7 Fear the Kitten
8 Heaven's Runway
9 Channel Isle
10 Big Lute

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-1-13

Tomorrow marks a very important day along the Triple Crown trail, with three official Kentucky Derby prep races on the schedule, as well as a multitude of other intriguing races. But before we delve into those races -- which we will be doing tomorrow -- here are a variety of thoughts that have been running through my head during the last week or so:

* Give Itsmyluckyday a ton of credit for his victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). He flashed enough early speed to avoid getting caught too wide on the first turn, then wore down the champion Shanghai Bobby to win in track record time. While he doesn't have the strongest of ten-furlong pedigrees, he's certainly not bred to be a sprinter either, and his recent performances give the impression that he'll run all day. Shanghai Bobby also ran very well -- the rail might not have been the place to be last Saturday, and those were very honest fractions he set. Given that it was his first start since the Breeders' Cup, I would think that a much-improved effort is possible next time out.

* Determining the exact reason why Dewey Square was beaten 28 1/2 lengths in the Holy Bull may be impossible -- it was probably a combination of things, including a dislike for getting dirt kicked in his face for the first time. But while it might be tempting to forget about him as a Derby contender, let us recall that his trainer, Dale Romans, was able to save the day with 2011 Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford after that colt was beaten 23 1/2 lengths in the Fountain of Youth.

* A quick look back at the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile reveals that only one runner, Dynamic Sky, has gone on to win a race. Dynamic Sky, of course, won the Pasco Stakes last month at Tampa Bay Downs and will look to continue his success at Tampa in Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III). However, it might be wise to keep an eye on Speak Logistics, who was beaten just a half-length by Dynamic Sky in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who sent out Itsmyluckyday to win the Holy Bull last week, Speak Logistics has been training sharply and will have Tampa's leading rider Angel Serpa aboard.

* It's beginning to sound as though Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) winner Uncaptured is playing catch-up along the Derby trail . . . a couple of foot issues have kept him out of serious training for many weeks, and while trainer Mark Casse does have the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) tentatively penciled in as Uncaptured's final Derby prep, his first race back remains undetermined. The Rushaway Stakes and the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) are options.

* Bob Baffert sent out a pair of good colts yesterday afternoon in Super Ninety Nine and Code West, who ran 1-2 in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita. After settling back in second and third, respectively, for the opening half-mile, Super Ninety Nine and Code West both made bids on the outside of front-running Appealing Tale, with Super Ninety Nine getting the jump on his stablemate and holding him off easily to win by 3 1/4 lengths in the very sharp time of 1:35.11. For Super Ninety Nine, it was a dramatically better performance than the one he turned in on December 28th, when he was a dull fourth behind Distinctiv Passion in a six-furlong allowance sprint. For Code West, it was a very encouraging effort for his first start since October, and he should only get better with additional distance.

* Not that this really means anything, but every horse entered in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) is guaranteed to earn a qualification point toward the Kentucky Derby. I'm surprised more didn't enter for that reason alone -- but then again, maybe running fourth and earning one point just isn't worth the trouble.

* That was quite a debut performance from Big Lute this afternoon at Oaklawn. The son of Midnight Lute settled into the three-path early on before taking command around the turn and drawing off powerfully to win by 4 3/4 lengths, stopping the clock for six furlongs in the quick time of 1:10.43 seconds. Trained by Steve Hobby, Big Lute looks bound for a stakes race.

* There hasn't been a lot of talk about him, but Tour Guide has been quietly compiling a very good record at tracks across the country. Feast your eyes on these statistics: He finished second in his debut at Monmouth Park, then broke his maiden there a few weeks later. Then he ran fifth in the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park. Then he shipped to Churchill Downs and won an allowance optional claiming race. Then he went down to Fair Grounds and took the Sugar Bowl Stakes. Most recently, he shipped to Sam Houston Race Park in Texas and won the seven-furlong Allen's Landing Stakes by a half-length. Hard to say if he wants to go any further than that, but he'll get a chance to stretch out in either the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) or Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) later this month.

* Treasury Bill stamped himself as a colt to watch on January 27th when he rallied from out of the clouds to win a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by 1 1/4 lengths. Trailing by eleven lengths after the opening quarter, and by 7 1/2 with just five-sixteenths of a mile to go, Treasury Bill gobbled up ground in the homestretch like he'd joined the race at the quarter pole and finished up under a long hold late. Given his pedigree, additional distance should not be an issue.

* Another promising Santa Anita maiden winner was Saticoy, who flashed breathtaking speed to win a six-furlong maiden special weight by 4 1/4 lengths last Saturday. With Julien Leparoux aboard, the Gary Mandella-trainee blazed through fractions of :21.50 and :44.16 en route to a final clocking of 1:08.55 seconds. Storm Fighter, from the barn of Bruce Headley, tracked the pace throughout and wound up clearly second best in a performance that suggests he'll be ready to break his own maiden next time out.

* I was highly disappointed by Mountain Eagle's performance in a recent allowance race at Gulfstream Park. Coming off of a sharp maiden victory, I was expecting a breakthrough performance that would launch him en route to a major Derby prep. Unfortunately, he never really fired, giving way readily to be beaten 7 1/2 lengths after tracking a slow early pace. In the meantime, Orb overcame a slightly troubled trip to rally for victory, but he was clearly tiring at the finish and ran the final eighth in a slow :13.36 seconds. However, it's hard to say what to make of that, since he had just run the previous quarter mile in a strong :24 flat.

* Cerro's victory in the other division of Orb's allowance race says a lot about the quality of Bradester and Gunderman, both of whom beat him soundly in different allowance race on January 1st. But in my opinion Cerro may be better than both of them, for he was running against a track bias when beaten on New Year's Day. On a different note, it was encouraging to see Cerro flash more early speed last Saturday, as the ability to go to the lead or take back and wait will be a useful asset further down the road.

-Keelerman