Orb edges Violence in thrilling Fountain of Youth

The promising allowance winner Orb became a graded stakes winner on Saturday when he rallied past the previously undefeated Violence to win the $400,000 Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park by a half-length.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Orb got off to a clean start from post one but quickly settled back in seventh place as Majestic Hussar led the way through quick fractions of :23.11 and :45.45 seconds. Violence, Cerro, and Sr. Quisqueyano were racing as a group in second, followed closely by Elmutahid. Speak Logistics was another four lengths back in sixth, followed by Orb, He's Had Enough, and Joshua's Comprise.

Moving round the final turn, Violence made a strong move to challenge Majestic Hussar for the lead, but the move may have come a bit soon, for it resulted in a six-furlong fraction of 1:08.85 seconds, and truly blazing time. Turning for home, Violence drew clear of Majestic Hussar, but Orb was rallying strongly in the center of racetrack, and stuck his head in front about a sixteenth of a mile from home. Violence dug in gamely and tried to repel the challenge, but Orb maintained his advantage to the wire, which he reached in a quick 1:42.24 seconds for a mile and a sixteenth. The time was only 0.43 seconds off the track record set by Itsmyluckyday earlier this year.

Speak Logistics rallied for third, many lengths behind the top pair. Majestic Hussar, He's Had Enough, Cerro, Sr. Quisqueyano, Joshua's Comprise, and Elmutahid completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Shug McGaughey and owned by Stuart Janney III and Phipps Stable. A son of Malibu Moon out of Lady Liberty, by Unbridled, Orb has now compiled a record of 3-0-1 from 6 starts, with earnings of $321,050.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-23-13

Get ready. The semi-final round has started. From here on out, mistakes cannot be made. The stakes have been increased to five times higher than they were before.

This is the second stage of Road to the Kentucky Derby. All previous Derby prep races mean little to nothing. No longer are the Derby candidates competing for a mere ten points to the winner. They are now competing for fifty points, which should be more than enough to secure them a berth in the Run for the Roses.

Two such fifty-point races are scheduled to be conducted today, and perhaps as a result of their increased value, both events have drawn huge, competitive fields.

A victory in either of these races will assure you a spot in the Derby. A runner-up effort will put you right in contention. A third-place finish will keep you on the trail. A fourth-place finish will garner a few token points. Anything worse may end up keeping you out of the Derby.

The second stage has begun. Let's start handicapping.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, Sky Captain had already been scratched from the Fountain of Youth, but Falling Sky, a later scratch, was still in the race.)

In ways, this race will be the most anticipated of the weekend, having drawn the unbeaten CashCall Futurity (gr. I) stakes winner Violence. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Medaglia d'Oro also has a victory in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) on his record, stamping him as a colt of exceptional quality. His Futurity win was especially impressive, as he gave a very good impression in the homestretch and finished up strongly despite tracking a fairly strong early pace. Furthermore, he's drawn gate three for today's race, a perfect post draw considering the short run to the first turn. Add in his bullet five-furlong work last week, and you have yourself a very deserving favorite.

However, from a Beyer speed figure perspective, Violence holds no real edge. He earned a 92 for his CashCall victory, a figure that has been matched, nearly matched, or exceeded by four of his rivals. Furthermore, this will be his first start since December, and there's always the possibility that he'll need to get a race under his belt before returning to top form.

If that is the case, there are plenty of other colts to choose from. Personally, I find Speak Logistics very intriguing. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who upset Eclipse champion Shanghai Bobby last month with Itsmyluckyday, Speak Logistics showed great talent as a two-year-old, romping to victory in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at Calder while earning a Beyer of 90. A run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) yielded less-than-stellar results -- he finished seventh -- but he was only beaten 5 3/4 lengths after tracking a quick pace. His most recent run came in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, where he finished fourth after getting cut off while making what appeared to be a winning move along the rail. He's drawn a bit wide in post eight, but if he can avoid getting hung wide on the first turn, I think Speak Logistics will turn in a good effort.

Cerro and He's Had Enough also deserve considerable respect. The first-mentioned colt won a nine-furlong allowance race in front-running fashion here at Gulfstream last month, giving a generally good impression while earning a respectable speed figure. Trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor International, Cerro seems to be improving in leaps and bounds, and if he can continue his upward trajectory later this afternoon, he may be poised to launch himself into the Derby picture in a big way.

As for He's Had Enough, you've got to give respect to any colt that is beaten a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but his most recent efforts have caused the son of Tapit to lose some of his luster. A nine-length defeat to Violence in the CashCall Futurity was followed by a nearly seven-length loss to Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). Now, He's Had Enough had a legitimate excuse in the Lewis, as the slow pace and small field forced him to try tracking the early pace rather than closing from beyond, which has been his most successful style. Nevertheless, he would need a career-best effort to defeat Violence, and that may be difficult to do while starting from post nine.

As deep as this field is, it comes as somewhat of a surprise that Falling Sky is the only other graded stakes winner, aside from Violence, entered in the race. Winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) last month, Falling Sky possesses a great deal of tactical speed, which he used to steal the Davis in gate-to-wire fashion. However, he was tiring noticeably at the finish of the Davis, lending to the belief that a mile and a sixteenth may be a bit beyond his best distance. Drawing gate ten will make his task even more difficult.

Orb and Majestic Hussar were both impressive winning allowance races here at Gulfstream last month, with Orb closing from last to win a nine-furlong event and Majestic Hussar sprinting to a clear victory over Palace Malice in a seven-furlong affair. In both cases, however, they have things to prove. Orb, after unleashing a strong fourth-quarter run to take the lead, slowed down drastically in the final furlong of his allowance victory, traversing the distance in :13.36 seconds while allowing runner-up Duke of the City to regain some lost ground. Majestic Hussar will be running beyond seven furlongs for the first time, and must prove that he can be as good on a fast track as he is on off track -- both of his victories have come over sloppy, sealed tracks.

Rounding out the field are Joshua's Comprise, fourth in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III); Elmutahid, a dominating maiden winner in the slop here at Gulfstream last month; and Sr. Quisqueyano, runner-up in the Gulfstream Park Derby and a distant eighth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). All have shown flashes of talent, the latter colt especially, but all three would need to show great improvement to upset the favorites.

Selections: Violence, Speak Logistics, Cerro

Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, He's Had Enough, Departing, and Sunbean have been scratched.)

Personally, I am looking forward to this race even more than the Fountain of Youth, for while the Risen Star lacks a big-name star like Violence, the overall depth of the Risen Star makes it a very appealing race with many possible outcomes.

The favorite will almost undoubtedly be Normandy Invasion, who turned in a simply spectacular rally around the far turn of last year's Remsen Stakes (gr. II), making up seven lengths in a mere quarter-mile before eventually finishing second by a nose. The Chad Brown-trainee has been training sharply for his return, and seems to be sitting on another huge race. The lone concern is that the long Fair Grounds homestretch may reveal a potential stamina deficit, as Normandy Invasion's pedigree is not really geared toward route races, but going a mile and a sixteenth, I really don't think it will prove to be an issue.

One of the more interesting horses in the race is Code West, who ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert. A strongly-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid, Code West enters off of a runner-up effort to Super Ninety Nine in a one-mile allowance race -- and as we all know, Super Ninety Nine returned to demolish the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn last Monday. Furthermore, Code West is bred to relish off-tracks, something which is highly likely at Fair Grounds today. With Martin Garcia flying in to ride the colt, I believe that Code West has an excellent shot at upsetting Normandy Invasion, assuming he gets a decent trip from post two.

Another major contender is Oxbow, who turned in one of the most impressive performances of the Derby prep season when winning the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) here at Fair Grounds by 11 1/2 lengths. In the homestretch -- while all the other runners were weaving and exhausted -- Oxbow was still running straight as an arrow, pouring on speed to win in simply spectacular fashion. Some have pointed to the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte, and feel he will lose when forced to set faster fractions. Perhaps that will be the case, further down the road. But with no other true speed horses entered in the Risen Star, who’s to say Oxbow won't get the same slow pace today?

Palace Malice, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, probably has the speed to match strides with Oxbow early -- he tracked a strong pace in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream last month en route to a runner-up finish -- but he seems to prefer rallying from a few lengths off the lead, which is where I expect him to be today. While this race will mark his first start around two turns, the fact that he is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin suggests that the added distance will not pose a problem. And with Fair Grounds master Rosie Napravnik in the saddle, he should get a good trip as well.

No Derby prep would be complete without a highly promising up-and-coming maiden winner, which is exactly what Proud Strike is. After finishing third and second in his first two starts, Proud Strike came through with a dominating 7 1/2-length triumph last time out, for which he earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 91. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Gary Stevens, the recently unretired Hall of Fame jockey, has flown in from California to ride him. Winning from the rail won't be the easiest of tasks, but at least we know he'll save some ground around the first turn!

Rounding out the projected main contenders is Mylute, who placed in a trio of stakes last year, including the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), in which he made an eye-catching five-wide rally around the far turn before flattening out a bit in the homestretch. He rebounded from that defeat to win a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race here at Fair Grounds by a massive 10 3/4 lengths, thus stamping him as one of the favorites for this race. However, it's worth noting that Rosie Napravnik -- who rode Mylute in that allowance win -- has chosen to ride Palace Malice instead.

The rest of the entrants would have to step up sharply to contend for the top spot. Golden Soul finished second to Oxbow in the LeComte, but was, of course, beaten over eleven lengths. Agent has won two of his three starts, including a one-mile allowance race at Sam Houston, but lacks the speed figures to really be competitive. Likewise, Ive Struck a Nerve has turned in some nice efforts, including a runner-up finish in the Sugar Bowl Stakes two starts back, but was fourth in the LeComte and has never run a Beyer over 74. Bethel broke his maiden in a claiming race two starts back, then was fourth in a starter allowance race just six days ago. Hardrock Eleven fired a big one when beaten a half-length in the Allen's Landing Stakes last time out, but the distance could be just a bit challenging for him, and like others, his speed figures aren't very high. Circle Unbroken won the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) as a two-year-old, stamping himself as a quality colt, and while he was beaten 16 1/4 lengths when sixth in the LeComte, that was also his first start since August, and his trainer stated beforehand that the colt wasn't fully fit. I expect that Circle Unbroken will show an improved performance today, although whether or not it will be enough to contend for the top prize is open to question.

Selection: Oxbow, Code West, Normandy Invasion

-Keelerman

Fountain of Youth Stakes entries: Violence headlines large field of 11

The unbeaten Violence, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Nashua Stakes (gr. II) last year, will face ten rivals when making his three-year-old debut in the $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Violence has drawn gate three of eleven, and excellent post position given the short run to the first turn. Javier Castellano has the mount on the son of Medaglia d'Oro, who is owned by Black Rock Thoroughbreds.

Also entered in this very deep race are Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III); He's Had Enough, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and most recently third in the Sham Stakes (gr. III); Cerro and Sky Captain, the 1-2 finishers in a recent nine-furlong allowance race; Majestic Hussar, who beat the highly-regarded Palace Malice in a recent seven-furlong allowance race; Orb, who overcame a troubled start to win a nine-furlong allowance race last month; and Speak Logistics, winner of the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes last year and most recently fourth to Falling Sky in the Sam F. Davis Stakes despite a troubled trip.

Post Positions:
1 Orb
2 Joshua's Compromise
3 Violence
4 Majestic Hussar
5 Elmutahid
6 Cerro
7 Sky Captain
8 Speak Logistics
9 He's Had Enough
10 Falling Sky
11 Sr. Quisqueyano

-Keelerman

Falling Sky goes gate-to-wire in Sam F. Davis Stakes

Despite obviously tiring in the homestretch, Falling Sky succeeded in stretching his speed around two turns and won the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs by a neck.

With Jose Espinoza aboard, Falling Sky went straight to the front while setting a moderate pace of :23.49, :47.68, and 1:12.61 seconds. Divine Ambition was tracking him in second, followed by Balino, Dynamic Sky, Silver Day, and Speak Logistics. Lightning Stone, My Name Is Michael, and Midnite Poppa were the trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Dynamic Sky moved up to challenge Falling Sky for the lead, but the front-runner had plenty left in the tank and spurted clear to a two-length lead passing the eighth pole. Dynamic Sky refused to give in, closing fast in the final sixteenth of a mile to cut the margin to just a neck, but Falling Sky held on gamely to win the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:44.79 seconds, a respectable time over the generally slow Tampa Bay Downs main track.

My Name Is Michael rallied belatedly for third, three lengths behind Dynamic Sky. Speak Logistics, Midnite Poppa, Divine Ambition, Silver Day, Lightning Stone, and Balino completed the order of finish.

The winner, a son of Lion Heart out of the Sea Hero mare Sea Dragoness, is trained by John Terranova II and owned by Newton Anner Stud, James Covello, and Joseph Bulger.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-2-13

With three official Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this afternoon, as well as a host of other fascinating races, this weekend promises to be one of the most exciting thus far along the Triple Crown trail. As there is a lot to discuss, we won't waste time with an extensive introduction. Let's just start handicapping!

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)

1 1/16th miles on the Santa Anita main track

Only four horses have been entered in the second leg of California's Derby prep race schedule, meaning that every entrant is guaranteed to earn at least one Kentucky Derby qualification point.

The morning line favorite at 3-5 is Flashback, a highly promising Bob Baffert-trained son of Tapit. The colt has only run once, breaking his maiden in sharp fashion going seven furlongs on December 8th. Being that this will be both his first start on dirt and his first around two turns, one could question whether his 3-5 odds are two low. However, given that he is also the lone front-runner on a track that is kind to speed, the stretch-out and step up in class shouldn't prove much of an issue.

Baffert also trains the second choice on the morning line, 5-2 shot Den's Legacy. Winner of the Generous Stakes (gr. III) on turf last fall, he enters the Lewis off of a third-place finish in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and a runner-up effort in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). Give him some credit -- this horse is extremely versatile, and has decent tactical speed and a decent finishing kick. But he probably lacks the speed to contend with Flashback early, and may not have quite the same late run as He's Had Enough. If he is to win this race, he's going to have to time his challenge just right.

One of the more intriguing horses in the race is He's Had Enough, who races for the same connections as I'll Have Another, who won this race last year en route to victory in the Kentucky Derby. He is a rather inconsistent colt, finishing well back in three of his four stakes races, but the one time he ran on dirt, he was beaten just a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) -- a stellar performance indeed! Apparently, he's pretty lazy in the mornings, and it's difficult to get good works into him, but he went six furlongs in 1:10 4/5 on January 25th, which seems to say that he's coming into this race in good form.

Rounding out the field is Little Jerry, a son of Candy Ride trained by Richard Baltas. In his first start, he rallied from last to win a one-mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park by a neck, defeating subsequent winners Curly Top and Persuasive Paul. In his only start since then, he finished eighth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) while failing to mount a challenge of any kind. It's hard to say exactly why he performed so poorly, but I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt and assume that he will rebound today.

Now, as much as I like Flashback, and as good as I think he'll be further down the road, I'm going to side with He's Had Enough, in hopes that he will relish the return to dirt and return to his Breeders' Cup Juvenile form. That said, I can see any one of these four horses winning, and this is definitely one of those races that is best enjoyed for the sport of it, rather than as a handicapping challenge.

Selections: He's Had Enough, Flashback, Little Jerry

Withers Stakes (gr. III)

1 1/16th miles on the Aqueduct main track

This race marks the stakes debut of Revolutionary, Todd Pletcher's highly promising maiden winner that earned a Beyer speed figure of 102 in late December at Aqueduct. A well-bred son of War Pass, anything near a repeat of his maiden score should put Revolutionary in the winner's circle this afternoon.

However, should Revolutionary bounce a bit off of that huge effort, there are plenty of other colts that could steal the victory. First and foremost in my mind is Long River, a son of A.P. Indy out of the 2006 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) winner Round Pond. Owned by Darley Stable and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the colt broke his maiden third-time out in sharp fashion, then finished an even fourth in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) here at Aqueduct last month. However, he bled just a bit that day, so the additional of Lasix for today's race should greatly help his chances. And don't forget that his jockey, Irad Ortiz Jr., has been on a real hot streak as of late.

Siete de Oros, beaten just a head in the Jerome, has proven to be a fairly consistent colt, and deserves respect for that reason alone. Amerigo Vespucci, third in the Jerome, made a nice middle move in that race before flattening out. It was a good effort for his first time around two turns, and improvement is definitely possible today for the son of Henrythenavigator. Escapefromreality has shown a great deal of talent sprinting, but is stretching out beyond six furlongs for the first time and doesn't have the strongest of route pedigree. Smooth Bert won the Damon Runyon Stakes last time out, but his recent workouts have been a bit on the slow side, and it's worth noting that both of his victories have come over wet, sealed tracks. Valid, a sharp maiden winner last time out, will run as a coupled entry with Long River and possesses a good finishing kick. Champion Boy has only run once, finishing third in a six-furlong maiden special weight on January 20th, and while he may improve with additional distance, it's hard to back a maiden in a race like this.

Selections: Revolutionary, Long River, Siete de Oros

Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)

1 1/16th miles on the Tampa Bay Downs main track

(Note: At the time of writing, Northern Lion has been scratched.)

This is a fairly deep and evenly-matched field, but Dynamic Sky looks like a very deserving favorite. Last month, he rallied for a convincing victory in the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes, despite encountering a great deal of traffic at the top of the stretch. Trained by Mark Casse, he should only improve with the added distance, and should be even sharper than he was for the Pasco. I find it difficult to envision him not finishing in the exacta.

Speak Logistics also looks like a nice colt, and if anyone can beat Dynamic Sky, it's probably him. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr. -- who won the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) last week with Itsmyluckyday -- Speak Logistics won the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes with a Beyer speed figure of 90 last October, then finished just a half-length behind Dynamic Sky when seventh in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). He hasn't raced since then, but he's training very sharply and appears ready to turn in a good effort.

My Name is Michael finished second in the Display Stakes at Woodbine last fall, stamping himself as a colt of fine quality, and has since been transferred to the barn of Bill Mott. He's training nicely for his dirt debut, and will have top jockey Joel Rosario in the saddle, so all signs seem to indicate that he's sitting on a good effort.

Divine Ambition finished third to Dynamic Sky in the Pasco after setting the pace, and while on the surface he doesn't appear to be the type that would appreciate the additional distance, the possibility exists that he could use his great speed to set a slow pace and hang on late.

On the other hand, that is probably the strategy that Falling Sky will attempt to employ. The winner of a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on December 15th, Falling Sky also has a great deal of early speed, and will likely use it to try and wire the race. Should he and Divine Ambition hook up in a speed duel, it will likely compromise the chances of both. On the other hand, if they both settle down and set a slow pace together, they could both have a great deal left in the tank for the stretch run -- perhaps even enough to hold off the favorites.

We won't go into detail on every horse in this race, for this post is getting long already, but let's take a moment to briefly mention Midnite Poppa. Trained by Nick Zito, the son of Unbridled's Song broke his maiden nicely here at Tampa on December 26th, and while he will have to overcome breaking from the far outside post position today, he seems to be a talented enough runner, and he will have top jockey Jose Lezcano in the saddle.

Selection: Dynamic Sky, Speak Logistics, Falling Sky

Other Races of Note

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 5: Hugely impressive debut winner Verrazano will attempt to stretch his speed to a mile in this allowance optional claiming race. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of More Than Ready looks poised to join the Derby trail with another good performance. Gunderman, runner-up to Bradester in a 1 1/16th miles allowance race on New Year's Day, and Eton Blue, a narrow maiden winner trained by Nick Zito, look like the next-best horses in the race, but it's difficult to envision Verrazano losing this afternoon.

Race 8: Air Squadron, who finished a troubled third to Eton Blue in a recent one-mile maiden special weight, looks like the one to beat in today's nearly identical race. Todd Pletcher's Doherty deserves respect off of a runner-up effort to Looking Cool in a race similar to this one, but doesn't look quite as good as Air Squadron.

Race 10: The nearly unbeaten Merit Man is the morning line favorite in the $150,000 Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II), but I am intrigued by 8-1 shot Honorable Dillon, who rallied fast to finish second in a recent 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race here at Gulfstream. Forty Tales, sharp winner of an allowance at Parx Racing, should also be right in contention.

At Santa Anita Park . . .

Race 1: This one-mile maiden special weight has drawn a field of five, led by Bob Baffert's Tiz the Truth, who was beaten just a head by the highly-regarded Demonic last month. Colburn, late-running fourth to the good colts Curly Top and Footbridge in a recent maiden special weight, should be coming on fast at the finish.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-1-13

Tomorrow marks a very important day along the Triple Crown trail, with three official Kentucky Derby prep races on the schedule, as well as a multitude of other intriguing races. But before we delve into those races -- which we will be doing tomorrow -- here are a variety of thoughts that have been running through my head during the last week or so:

* Give Itsmyluckyday a ton of credit for his victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). He flashed enough early speed to avoid getting caught too wide on the first turn, then wore down the champion Shanghai Bobby to win in track record time. While he doesn't have the strongest of ten-furlong pedigrees, he's certainly not bred to be a sprinter either, and his recent performances give the impression that he'll run all day. Shanghai Bobby also ran very well -- the rail might not have been the place to be last Saturday, and those were very honest fractions he set. Given that it was his first start since the Breeders' Cup, I would think that a much-improved effort is possible next time out.

* Determining the exact reason why Dewey Square was beaten 28 1/2 lengths in the Holy Bull may be impossible -- it was probably a combination of things, including a dislike for getting dirt kicked in his face for the first time. But while it might be tempting to forget about him as a Derby contender, let us recall that his trainer, Dale Romans, was able to save the day with 2011 Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford after that colt was beaten 23 1/2 lengths in the Fountain of Youth.

* A quick look back at the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile reveals that only one runner, Dynamic Sky, has gone on to win a race. Dynamic Sky, of course, won the Pasco Stakes last month at Tampa Bay Downs and will look to continue his success at Tampa in Saturday's Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III). However, it might be wise to keep an eye on Speak Logistics, who was beaten just a half-length by Dynamic Sky in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who sent out Itsmyluckyday to win the Holy Bull last week, Speak Logistics has been training sharply and will have Tampa's leading rider Angel Serpa aboard.

* It's beginning to sound as though Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) winner Uncaptured is playing catch-up along the Derby trail . . . a couple of foot issues have kept him out of serious training for many weeks, and while trainer Mark Casse does have the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) tentatively penciled in as Uncaptured's final Derby prep, his first race back remains undetermined. The Rushaway Stakes and the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) are options.

* Bob Baffert sent out a pair of good colts yesterday afternoon in Super Ninety Nine and Code West, who ran 1-2 in a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita. After settling back in second and third, respectively, for the opening half-mile, Super Ninety Nine and Code West both made bids on the outside of front-running Appealing Tale, with Super Ninety Nine getting the jump on his stablemate and holding him off easily to win by 3 1/4 lengths in the very sharp time of 1:35.11. For Super Ninety Nine, it was a dramatically better performance than the one he turned in on December 28th, when he was a dull fourth behind Distinctiv Passion in a six-furlong allowance sprint. For Code West, it was a very encouraging effort for his first start since October, and he should only get better with additional distance.

* Not that this really means anything, but every horse entered in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) is guaranteed to earn a qualification point toward the Kentucky Derby. I'm surprised more didn't enter for that reason alone -- but then again, maybe running fourth and earning one point just isn't worth the trouble.

* That was quite a debut performance from Big Lute this afternoon at Oaklawn. The son of Midnight Lute settled into the three-path early on before taking command around the turn and drawing off powerfully to win by 4 3/4 lengths, stopping the clock for six furlongs in the quick time of 1:10.43 seconds. Trained by Steve Hobby, Big Lute looks bound for a stakes race.

* There hasn't been a lot of talk about him, but Tour Guide has been quietly compiling a very good record at tracks across the country. Feast your eyes on these statistics: He finished second in his debut at Monmouth Park, then broke his maiden there a few weeks later. Then he ran fifth in the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park. Then he shipped to Churchill Downs and won an allowance optional claiming race. Then he went down to Fair Grounds and took the Sugar Bowl Stakes. Most recently, he shipped to Sam Houston Race Park in Texas and won the seven-furlong Allen's Landing Stakes by a half-length. Hard to say if he wants to go any further than that, but he'll get a chance to stretch out in either the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) or Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) later this month.

* Treasury Bill stamped himself as a colt to watch on January 27th when he rallied from out of the clouds to win a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita by 1 1/4 lengths. Trailing by eleven lengths after the opening quarter, and by 7 1/2 with just five-sixteenths of a mile to go, Treasury Bill gobbled up ground in the homestretch like he'd joined the race at the quarter pole and finished up under a long hold late. Given his pedigree, additional distance should not be an issue.

* Another promising Santa Anita maiden winner was Saticoy, who flashed breathtaking speed to win a six-furlong maiden special weight by 4 1/4 lengths last Saturday. With Julien Leparoux aboard, the Gary Mandella-trainee blazed through fractions of :21.50 and :44.16 en route to a final clocking of 1:08.55 seconds. Storm Fighter, from the barn of Bruce Headley, tracked the pace throughout and wound up clearly second best in a performance that suggests he'll be ready to break his own maiden next time out.

* I was highly disappointed by Mountain Eagle's performance in a recent allowance race at Gulfstream Park. Coming off of a sharp maiden victory, I was expecting a breakthrough performance that would launch him en route to a major Derby prep. Unfortunately, he never really fired, giving way readily to be beaten 7 1/2 lengths after tracking a slow early pace. In the meantime, Orb overcame a slightly troubled trip to rally for victory, but he was clearly tiring at the finish and ran the final eighth in a slow :13.36 seconds. However, it's hard to say what to make of that, since he had just run the previous quarter mile in a strong :24 flat.

* Cerro's victory in the other division of Orb's allowance race says a lot about the quality of Bradester and Gunderman, both of whom beat him soundly in different allowance race on January 1st. But in my opinion Cerro may be better than both of them, for he was running against a track bias when beaten on New Year's Day. On a different note, it was encouraging to see Cerro flash more early speed last Saturday, as the ability to go to the lead or take back and wait will be a useful asset further down the road.

-Keelerman

Sam F. Davis Stakes Entries: Dynamic Sky looks for an encore

Dynamic Sky, whose eye-catching Pasco Stakes victory stamped him as a serious Kentucky Derby contend, will look to continue on the road to Louisville when he faces nine rivals in the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, the sight of his Pasco triumph.

Trained by Mark Casse, the son of Sky Mesa flashed a great deal of potential as a two-year-old, debuting with a third-place finish in the Vandal Stakes before winning the Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine and finishing second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland. He concluded his campaign with a troubled sixth-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), in which was beaten just 5 1/4 lengths despite trying to rally over a speed-favoring track. Regular rider Luis Contreras will be aboard in the Sam F. Davis.

Divine Ambition, Silver Day, and Lightning Stone -- the respective 3rd-, 6th-, and 7th-place finishers in the Pasco -- are back to challenge Dynamic Sky again. Display Stakes runner-up My Name is Michael; Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes winner Speak Logistics; allowance winners Falling Sky and Balino; and recent maiden winners Midnite Poppa and Northern Lion round out the field.

Post Positions:
1 Silver Day
2 Divine Ambition
3 My Name Is Michael
4 Speak Logistics
5 Lightning Stone
6 Northern Lion
7 Balino
8 Falling Sky
9 Dynamic Sky
10 Midnite Poppa

-Keelerman

Breeders' Cup Workout Report -- October 23rd, 2012

It was a rather sleepy morning in regard to Breeders' Cup training, as only seven such horses were to be found across the country. But sleepy doesn't necessarily mean boring, for there were several prominent names among those seven that could make their presence felt in their respective Breeders' Cup races, so let's take a look at what happened!

At Belmont Park . . .

Over the last several years, Jersey Town's career has been hindered by the fact that his feet have kept him from training consistently. But during the last couple of months, trainer Barclay Tagg has gotten the six-year-old horse back into good shape, and Jersey Town's recent breezes have reflected his new-found soundness. Earlier this morning at Belmont Park, he went six furlongs in a blazing :58.62 seconds -- the fastest work of the morning by more than three seconds. Clearly, the Kelso Handicap winner is sitting on another huge effort come Breeders' Cup day, and a victory in the Dirt Mile would certainly not be surprising.

At Calder . . .

The only Breeders' Cup contender on the work tab was the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes winner Speak Logistics. Pointing toward a start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the Edward Plesa Jr.-trainee went six furlongs in 1:13.40, the only work of the day at that distance.

At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .

Trainer Ron Ellis had a very busy morning, sending out a trio of Breeders' Cup candidates. The most prominent was two-time grade I winner Include Me Out, most recently third in the Zenyatta Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita Park. The four-year-old filly went six furlongs in 1:12.40 and looms as a very intriguing contender in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic, where she will have a home-track advantage over the likes of Royal Delta and Awesome Feather.

Also breezing six furlongs was San Diego Handicap (gr. II) winner Rail Trip, who is pointing toward the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Coincidentally, he recorded the same time -- 1:12.40 -- as Include Me Out, even though they did not work in company.

The last of the Ellis trio was Teddy's Promise, winner of the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) late last year but very disappointing in her last three starts. She worked a bullet half-mile in :47 flat, a solid prep for a start in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.

Also on the Hollywood work tab were Trailblazer, a Japanese-bred Breeders' Cup Turf candidate that went five-eighths in 1:02 flat, and Miss Empire, who went a half-mile in :49.60 in preparation for a start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

-Keelerman

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Contender Profile: SPEAK LOGISTICS

Owner: Ralph Nabavi

Trainer: Edward Plesa, Jr.

Breeder: Centaur Farms, Inc.

Most Recent Jockey: Angel Serpa

RACE RECORD

Age 2

1st Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes

1st Maiden Special Weight

4th Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Dixie Union
	High Cotton
		Happy Tune
Speak Logistics
		Summer Squall
	Miss Sabrina
		Miswila