Kentucky Derby Contender Profile: FALLING SKY

Owner: Newton Anner Stud, James Covello, and Joseph Bulger
Trainer: John P. Terranova, II
Breeder: Copper Penny Stables LLC
Jockey: Unknown

RACE RECORD

Age 3

4th Arkansas Derby (gr. I)
3rd Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II)
1st Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)

Age 2

1st Allowance Optional Claiming
4th Inaugural Stakes
1st Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		Tale of the Cat
	Lion Heart
		Satin Sunrise
Falling Sky
		Sea Hero
	Sea Dragoness
		Slew the Dragoness

Kentucky Derby point standings: Who will make the cut?

When Churchill Downs first made the announcement that they had created a point system that would qualify horses to the Kentucky Derby, it was believed that it would take about 40 points to assure a horse their spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate. Now, with just over two weeks remaining before the race, and with just two prep races remaining on the calendar, it appears as though that guess was wrong -- very wrong.

In fact, according to my calculations, you may not need even 20 points to make the race -- and maybe not even 10.

At this time, the top twenty colts on the Kentucky Derby point standings list are as follows:

1	Orb	150	$840,000
2	Verrazano	150	$810,000
3	Goldencents	129	$1,208,000
4	Java's War	122	$651,772
5	Overanalyze	110	$908,381
6	Revolutionary	110	$720,000
7	Lines of Battle	100	$1,261,089
8	Vyjack	70	$505,000
9	Will Take Charge	60	$512,971
10	Itsmyluckyday	50	$593,600
11	Govenor Charlie	50	$400,000
12	Black Onyx	50	$317,130
13	Palace Malice	50	$200,000
14	Normandy Invasion	44	$258,000
15	Frac Daddy	44	$240,596
16	Mylute	42	$363,365
17	Oxbow	36	$346,000
18	Super Ninety Nine	30	$308,000
19	Falling Sky	30	$207,500
20	Den's Legacy	20	$329,000

Now, barring injury, the top seventeen names on this list are considered definite for the Derby. But the next three horses -- Super Ninety Nine, Falling Sky, and Den's Legacy -- were all soundly beaten in their final Derby preps, leaving their connections to ponder whether to accept their virtually assured Derby berth or regroup in a smaller race, or perhaps wait for the Preakness.

Let us suppose for a moment that the connections of all three colts choose to skip the Derby. Now let's take a look at the horses ranked 21-25:

21	Charming Kitten	20	$206,000
22	Code West	20	$90,000
23	Tiz a Minister	20	$81,000
24	Golden Soul	14	$84,000
25	Power Broker	10	$225,000

From this list, we have two that would run in the Derby if given the opportunity -- Charming Kitten and Golden Soul. Code West is a possibility for the Derby, but is currently targeting the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) one week later at Belmont Park. Likewise, Tiz a Minister's connections had penciled in the Snow Chief Stakes at Betfair Hollywood Park following their colt's disappointing fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, but with Tiz a Minister now on the verge of entering the top twenty, they are rethinking their decision. And how about Power Broker? A grade I winner last year, he was never involved in the Santa Anita Derby -- his first start since November -- but if he were to slip into the top twenty, might he be entered in the Derby?

Once again, let's suppose that the maybes -- Code West, Tiz a Minister, and Power Broker -- all chose to bypass the Derby in favor of other races. Thus, we now have a top twenty comprised of . . .

1	Orb	150	$840,000
2	Verrazano	150	$810,000
3	Goldencents	129	$1,208,000
4	Java's War	122	$651,772
5	Overanalyze	110	$908,381
6	Revolutionary	110	$720,000
7	Lines of Battle	100	$1,261,089
8	Vyjack	70	$505,000
9	Will Take Charge	60	$512,971
10	Itsmyluckyday	50	$593,600
11	Govenor Charlie	50	$400,000
12	Black Onyx	50	$317,130
13	Palace Malice	50	$200,000
14	Normandy Invasion	44	$258,000
15	Frac Daddy	44	$240,596
16	Mylute	42	$363,365
17	Oxbow	36	$346,000
18	Charming Kitten	20	$206,000
19	Golden Soul	14	$84,000
20	???	??	$??

That's right -- we have dipped all the way down to Golden Soul and still haven't got twenty horses! Who might fill that final spot? Let's take a look at the horses currently ranked 26-30 and see who we find . . .

26	Mr Palmer	10	$110,000
27	Abraham	10	$80,000
28	Elnaawi	10	$70,000
29	Narvaez	10	$50,000
30	Texas Bling	9	$245,200

This is where things get especially intriguing. There are actually a few horses in this point range -- such as Merit Man (20), Departing (20), West Hills Giant (20), Dynamic Sky (13), and Speak Logistics (11) -- but they are all definitely pointing toward other races, and are considered off the Derby trail. As for the five that I do list, Abraham and Narvaez are both entered in Saturday's Illinois Derby (gr. III) at Hawthorne, and it's unlikely -- although certainly not impossible -- that they could wheel back in the Derby if given the opportunity. As for the others, it's difficult to say. Mr Palmer and Elnaawi were both soundly beaten in the Wood Memorial, and Texas Bling finished next-to-last in the Arkansas Derby.

I could go further, but you get the idea. Should the connections of Super Ninety Nine, Falling Sky, Den's Legacy, Code West, Tiz a Minister, and Power Broker all choose to pass on the Derby -- a longshot, perhaps, but not out of the question -- then we could see a horse with just 10 qualification points wind up in the Derby!

Now, there are two other possibilities that I'd like to mention before concluding this post. One has to do with horses that haven't been nominated to the Triple Crown. Consider this -- Sunland Derby (gr. III) runner-up Show Some Magic and Arkansas Derby (gr. I) third-place finisher Carve have both earned 20 Derby qualfication points, and should their connections decide to put up the late nomination money -- which isn't inexpensive -- their colts would virtually assured of Derby berths. Secondly, there are two Derby prep races remaining on the schedule, those being the Lexington Stakes (gr. III) this Saturday at Keeneland and the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) one week before the Derby. Both races offer twenty points to the winner -- the magic number, by my caculations. To the best of my knowledge, Cerro and Sunbean in the Lexington Stakes could potentially end up in the Derby following a win -- although Cerro is more likely for the Preakness -- and in the Derby Trial, Titletown Five could wind up in the Run for the Roses if he garners the victory. So stay tuned -- the 2013 Kentucky Derby field isn't anywhere near finalized, and there may be plenty of changes still to come during the next two weeks!

-Keelerman

Arkansas Derby entries: Oxbow draws post 10

Oxbow, runner-up in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and romping winner of the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), has drawn post position ten in the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Oaklawn Park.

The nine-furlong Kentucky Derby prep race has had a great deal of success in recent years, producing such stars as 2004 Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner Smarty Jones, 2005 Preakness/Belmont winner Afleet Alex, 2007 Eclipse champion older male Lawyer Ron, two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, 2011 Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro, and 2012 Kentucky Derby/Preakness runner-up Bodemeister. With such an unprecedented success rate, it is entirely possible that the 2013 renewal of the race could produce yet another budding superstar.

Oxbow may just be that horse. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the son of Awesome Again has not been able to overcome poor trips in his recent starts, but possesses a great deal of speed and strong acceleration. Gary Stevens, who won the Kentucky Derby with Lukas in 1988 and 1995, has the mount.

Trainer Bob Baffert, who won the Arkansas Derby last year with Bodemeister, has entered two colts, led by the lightly-raced War Academy. The son of Giant's Causeway has only run three times, but was simply spectacular in winning an 8.5-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park last month. A repeat of that performance could make him very tough to beat on Saturday.

The other Baffert representative is Den's Legacy, who has finished second or third in four major stakes since winning the Generous Stakes (gr. III) on turf last year. A true veteran with eleven starts under his belt, Den's Legacy enters the Arkansas Derby off of a good third-place effort in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II).

Trainer Todd Pletcher, who already has Wood Memorial winner Verrazano and Louisiana Derby winner Revolutionary assured of spots in the Kentucky Derby, will try to add a third colt to his Louisville roster by sending out Overanalyze. Winner of the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) and Futurity Stakes (gr. II) as a two-year-old, Overanalyze finished a dull fifth last month in the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) -- his only start of the year thus far -- but has trained nicely since then and could be sitting on a big performance.

Rounding out the field are Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) winner Falling Sky, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Frac Daddy, Rebel Stakes fourth- and sixth-place finishers Texas Bling and Carve, Team Valor Rushaway Stakes runner-up Divine Ambition, and Southwest Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Heaven's Runway.

Post Positions:
1 Carve
2 War Academy
3 Divine Ambition
4 Falling Sky
5 Den's Legacy
6 Heaven's Runway
7 Texas Bling
8 Frac Daddy
9 Overanalyze
10 Oxbow

-Keelerman

Verrazano romps in Tampa Bay Derby

Odds-on favorite Verrazano overcame a bobble at the start to win the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) in impressive fashion on March 9th, stamping himself as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) in the process.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Verrazano got off to a slightly awkward start at the beginning of the 1 1/16th miles race, but quickly recovered to race in second place as Falling Sky led the way through an opening quarter mile in :23.50 seconds. Purple Egg and Dynamic Sky were also close to the pace, followed then by Honorable Dillon, Park City, Offlee Fast, Eton Blue, and Java's War.

Entering the backstretch, Verrazano moved up to take the lead from Falling Sky, and led by a length following a half-mile in :47.69 and six furlongs in 1:12.36. Thereafter, Verrazano began to distance himself from his rivals, opening up a commanding advantage while under a hand ride to eventually reach the finish line  three lengths in front, seemingly with something left in the tank. The final time was a sharp 1:43.96 seconds.

Java's War finished strongly on the far outside to secure second place, 4 1/4 lengths clear of Falling Sky. Dynamic Sky rounded out the superfecta, while Eton Blue, Park City, Honorable Dillon, Offlee Fast, and Purple Egg trailed the field.

The winner, a son of More Than Ready out of the Giant's Causeway mare Enchanted Rock, is trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Let's Go Stable, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier, and Derrick Smith.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 3/9/13

Welcome back to Triple Crown Countdown! Before we delve into this weekend's major Derby preps, allow me to apologize for the lack of blog updates during the last two weeks. A very busy schedule has been the culprit. As a result, today's post shall be a bit shorter than usual, but I shall attempt to cover all of the action as best I can.

We will begin with the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) at Tampa Bay Downs, where Todd Pletcher’s unbeaten allowance winner Verrazano will attempt to pick up his first Kentucky Derby qualification points. Never mind the 16 1/4-length margin of victory last time out -- what was really impressive was the way he finished after being involved in a very quick pace. Anything close to a repeat of that effort should bring about a dominant win in the Tampa Bay Derby.

The only real concern is that the Tampa Bay Downs main track is known for being very different from Gulfstream Park, and it's possible that Verrazano may not care for it -- plenty of horses don't. If that turns out to be the case, than perhaps he can be upset by a runner with experience over the track. There are three such horses in the race -- Dynamic Sky, Falling Sky, and Purple Egg. Dynamic Sky won the Pasco Stakes two starts back before finishing second to Falling Sky in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) after going very wide on both turns and drifting in the homestretch. The jockey switch to Joel Rosario is expected to bring about an improved performance, and so long as Dynamic Sky is within shouting range of Verrazano turning for home, he should have every opportunity to run the favorite down.

Falling Sky won the above-mentioned Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) in gate-to-wire fashion, digging in gamely to hold off Dynamic Sky's late charge. However, a mile and a sixteenth appears to be at the upper limit of his distance capabilities, and it is doubtful that he will get an easy lead today -- not with Verrazano and Offlee Fast right on his heels. Furthermore, he has drawn gate nine, which will make his task of clearing the field and seizing the lead all the more difficult.

Purple Egg is unbeaten in three starts sprinting, including a victory in the Inaugural Stakes here at Tampa in December. However, an illness has kept him from racing since then, and this is a tough spot to stretch out around two turns for the first time. Nevertheless, he's flashed a lot of potential, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him in the mix at the finish.

Honorable Dillon and Java's War merit respect as well. The first-mentioned runner caught my eye when he defeated the well-regarded Delhomme in a maiden special weight at Saratoga last summer, but he disappeared from the work tab shortly thereafter and did not return to the races until January, when he finished a fast-closing second in an allowance sprint at Gulfstream. That effort set him up well for a run in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II), which he won by a determined half-length. This will be his first start in a route race, but being a son of Tapit, one has to think that a mile and a sixteenth will be within his range. I expect to see him settle off-the-pace, then try his best to wear down the leaders in the stretch.

Java's War won the Sunday Silence Stakes on turf last year, then finished just three-quarters of a length behind Dynamic Sky when third in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). He concluded his juvenile season with a sixth-place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), which remains his only start on dirt. He has trained well for his return and possesses a fairly good finishing kick, but he stills has to prove that he can handle the dirt.

Rounding out the field are Eton Blue and Offlee Wild. (Park City is also entered, but is expected to scratch in favor of the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park next week.) Eton Blue ran second behind Verrazano in that one's dominant victory, and while he has shown some talent, it's hard to envision him making up those 16 1/4 lengths this afternoon. Offlee Wild broke his maiden two starts back going nine furlongs on the Gulfstream turf, then switched to dirt and was beaten just a head by the grade I-placed Capo Bastone in an allowance race. Once again, there's no denying that he has talent, but the task of outrunning Verrazano and Falling Sky for the early lead will not be easy.

Selections: Verrazano, Dynamic Sky, Honorable Dillon

Now, let’s briefly examine the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park. The 1 1/16th miles event has drawn a field of eight, led by graded stakes winners Flashback and Goldencents. The first colt, trained by Bob Baffert, romped to victory in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) last month, and obviously possesses a great deal of talent and speed. This will be only the third start of his career, which is a bit of a concern, but I'm confident that Julien Leparoux will put him in a good position and let him run his race. I expect a big performance.

Goldencents has won three of his four starts; his only defeat came at the hands of juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last fall. Since that loss, he has been in great form, winning the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) -- with Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) winner Itsmyluckyday finishing sixth -- and the Sham Stakes (gr. III) here at Santa Anita. But it is worth noting that Sham runner-up Den's Legacy, who was beaten just 1 1/2 lengths, returned to be beaten a massive seven lengths by Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis. Furthermore, Manando -- beaten just three lengths in the Sham -- came back to run last in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields. If you want to take these efforts at face value, than Flashback looms the horse to beat, regardless of his inexperience.

We won't take a look at every other horse entered in the San Felipe, but allow me to briefly mention Tiz a Minister and Omega Star, the 1-2 finishers from the California Breeders Stakes last month. Both ran quite well, with Tiz a Minister rallying from out of the clouds over a sloppy track to win by 1 1/4 lengths over Omega Star, who seized the lead at the top of the stretch, only to shorten stride in the final furlong and wind up second. Of the two, I prefer Omega Star today, given that a fast track is likely and that John Shirreffs isn't one to run a lightly-raced three-year-old in a major Derby prep unless he thinks he has a shot at winning. But Tiz a Minister should not be disregarded -- his late rally in the California Breeders Stakes was not an illusion. I personally hand-timed his last half-mile in about :47 2/5 seconds, with fractions of :11 2/5, :23 1/5, and :35 1/5. That is blazing fast.

Selections: Flashback, Omega Star, Goldencents

Other Races of Note

At Aqueduct . . .

Race 9: Jimmy Winkfield Stakes winner Clawback will be attempting to win his third straight race in the $100,000 Fred "Freddy" Capossela Stakes going six furlongs on the main track. A very talented colt with a great deal of speed, he should be able to win this race without any trouble. Whiskey Romeo is unbeaten in three starts, including a pair of stakes at Maryland, and looms the most likely upsetter while making his three-year-old debut. Personally, I am highly intrigued by Maleeh, who broke his maiden in eye-catching fashion at Aqueduct in January and appears to be a very promising colt indeed.

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 3: Nick Zito's promising colt Declan's Warrior returns in this 7-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race on the main track. Most recently beaten a neck by Todd Pletcher's Park City in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race -- his first start in about four months -- Declan's Warrior should be much sharper today, and looms very hard to beat. Acclaim, second to Verrazano in a January maiden special weight a winner of a similar race in January, is the second choice on the morning line.

Race 8: Apex, runner-up in a pair of maiden special weights at Saratoga last fall, will make his first start since then in this seven-furlong maiden special weight. His primary opposition will likely come from Red Rifle, a promising first-time starter from the barn of Todd Pletcher.

At Tampa Bay Downs . . .

Race 5: Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) runner-up Noble Tune is scheduled to make his first start since that race in this one-mile turf allowance race. Trained by Chad Brown, Noble Tune -- with his powerful finishing kick and strong training schedule -- should be ready to get back in the winner's circle today. Pataky Kid, who has shown talent on Polytrack, will try to transfer his form to turf for the first time. Are You Kidding Me, runner-up in the Summer Stakes (gr. II) on the Woodbine turf last fall, but unraced since finishing fifth in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), should also be right in contention.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-23-13

Get ready. The semi-final round has started. From here on out, mistakes cannot be made. The stakes have been increased to five times higher than they were before.

This is the second stage of Road to the Kentucky Derby. All previous Derby prep races mean little to nothing. No longer are the Derby candidates competing for a mere ten points to the winner. They are now competing for fifty points, which should be more than enough to secure them a berth in the Run for the Roses.

Two such fifty-point races are scheduled to be conducted today, and perhaps as a result of their increased value, both events have drawn huge, competitive fields.

A victory in either of these races will assure you a spot in the Derby. A runner-up effort will put you right in contention. A third-place finish will keep you on the trail. A fourth-place finish will garner a few token points. Anything worse may end up keeping you out of the Derby.

The second stage has begun. Let's start handicapping.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, Sky Captain had already been scratched from the Fountain of Youth, but Falling Sky, a later scratch, was still in the race.)

In ways, this race will be the most anticipated of the weekend, having drawn the unbeaten CashCall Futurity (gr. I) stakes winner Violence. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Medaglia d'Oro also has a victory in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) on his record, stamping him as a colt of exceptional quality. His Futurity win was especially impressive, as he gave a very good impression in the homestretch and finished up strongly despite tracking a fairly strong early pace. Furthermore, he's drawn gate three for today's race, a perfect post draw considering the short run to the first turn. Add in his bullet five-furlong work last week, and you have yourself a very deserving favorite.

However, from a Beyer speed figure perspective, Violence holds no real edge. He earned a 92 for his CashCall victory, a figure that has been matched, nearly matched, or exceeded by four of his rivals. Furthermore, this will be his first start since December, and there's always the possibility that he'll need to get a race under his belt before returning to top form.

If that is the case, there are plenty of other colts to choose from. Personally, I find Speak Logistics very intriguing. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who upset Eclipse champion Shanghai Bobby last month with Itsmyluckyday, Speak Logistics showed great talent as a two-year-old, romping to victory in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at Calder while earning a Beyer of 90. A run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) yielded less-than-stellar results -- he finished seventh -- but he was only beaten 5 3/4 lengths after tracking a quick pace. His most recent run came in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, where he finished fourth after getting cut off while making what appeared to be a winning move along the rail. He's drawn a bit wide in post eight, but if he can avoid getting hung wide on the first turn, I think Speak Logistics will turn in a good effort.

Cerro and He's Had Enough also deserve considerable respect. The first-mentioned colt won a nine-furlong allowance race in front-running fashion here at Gulfstream last month, giving a generally good impression while earning a respectable speed figure. Trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor International, Cerro seems to be improving in leaps and bounds, and if he can continue his upward trajectory later this afternoon, he may be poised to launch himself into the Derby picture in a big way.

As for He's Had Enough, you've got to give respect to any colt that is beaten a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but his most recent efforts have caused the son of Tapit to lose some of his luster. A nine-length defeat to Violence in the CashCall Futurity was followed by a nearly seven-length loss to Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). Now, He's Had Enough had a legitimate excuse in the Lewis, as the slow pace and small field forced him to try tracking the early pace rather than closing from beyond, which has been his most successful style. Nevertheless, he would need a career-best effort to defeat Violence, and that may be difficult to do while starting from post nine.

As deep as this field is, it comes as somewhat of a surprise that Falling Sky is the only other graded stakes winner, aside from Violence, entered in the race. Winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) last month, Falling Sky possesses a great deal of tactical speed, which he used to steal the Davis in gate-to-wire fashion. However, he was tiring noticeably at the finish of the Davis, lending to the belief that a mile and a sixteenth may be a bit beyond his best distance. Drawing gate ten will make his task even more difficult.

Orb and Majestic Hussar were both impressive winning allowance races here at Gulfstream last month, with Orb closing from last to win a nine-furlong event and Majestic Hussar sprinting to a clear victory over Palace Malice in a seven-furlong affair. In both cases, however, they have things to prove. Orb, after unleashing a strong fourth-quarter run to take the lead, slowed down drastically in the final furlong of his allowance victory, traversing the distance in :13.36 seconds while allowing runner-up Duke of the City to regain some lost ground. Majestic Hussar will be running beyond seven furlongs for the first time, and must prove that he can be as good on a fast track as he is on off track -- both of his victories have come over sloppy, sealed tracks.

Rounding out the field are Joshua's Comprise, fourth in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III); Elmutahid, a dominating maiden winner in the slop here at Gulfstream last month; and Sr. Quisqueyano, runner-up in the Gulfstream Park Derby and a distant eighth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). All have shown flashes of talent, the latter colt especially, but all three would need to show great improvement to upset the favorites.

Selections: Violence, Speak Logistics, Cerro

Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, He's Had Enough, Departing, and Sunbean have been scratched.)

Personally, I am looking forward to this race even more than the Fountain of Youth, for while the Risen Star lacks a big-name star like Violence, the overall depth of the Risen Star makes it a very appealing race with many possible outcomes.

The favorite will almost undoubtedly be Normandy Invasion, who turned in a simply spectacular rally around the far turn of last year's Remsen Stakes (gr. II), making up seven lengths in a mere quarter-mile before eventually finishing second by a nose. The Chad Brown-trainee has been training sharply for his return, and seems to be sitting on another huge race. The lone concern is that the long Fair Grounds homestretch may reveal a potential stamina deficit, as Normandy Invasion's pedigree is not really geared toward route races, but going a mile and a sixteenth, I really don't think it will prove to be an issue.

One of the more interesting horses in the race is Code West, who ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert. A strongly-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid, Code West enters off of a runner-up effort to Super Ninety Nine in a one-mile allowance race -- and as we all know, Super Ninety Nine returned to demolish the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn last Monday. Furthermore, Code West is bred to relish off-tracks, something which is highly likely at Fair Grounds today. With Martin Garcia flying in to ride the colt, I believe that Code West has an excellent shot at upsetting Normandy Invasion, assuming he gets a decent trip from post two.

Another major contender is Oxbow, who turned in one of the most impressive performances of the Derby prep season when winning the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) here at Fair Grounds by 11 1/2 lengths. In the homestretch -- while all the other runners were weaving and exhausted -- Oxbow was still running straight as an arrow, pouring on speed to win in simply spectacular fashion. Some have pointed to the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte, and feel he will lose when forced to set faster fractions. Perhaps that will be the case, further down the road. But with no other true speed horses entered in the Risen Star, who’s to say Oxbow won't get the same slow pace today?

Palace Malice, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, probably has the speed to match strides with Oxbow early -- he tracked a strong pace in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream last month en route to a runner-up finish -- but he seems to prefer rallying from a few lengths off the lead, which is where I expect him to be today. While this race will mark his first start around two turns, the fact that he is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin suggests that the added distance will not pose a problem. And with Fair Grounds master Rosie Napravnik in the saddle, he should get a good trip as well.

No Derby prep would be complete without a highly promising up-and-coming maiden winner, which is exactly what Proud Strike is. After finishing third and second in his first two starts, Proud Strike came through with a dominating 7 1/2-length triumph last time out, for which he earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 91. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Gary Stevens, the recently unretired Hall of Fame jockey, has flown in from California to ride him. Winning from the rail won't be the easiest of tasks, but at least we know he'll save some ground around the first turn!

Rounding out the projected main contenders is Mylute, who placed in a trio of stakes last year, including the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), in which he made an eye-catching five-wide rally around the far turn before flattening out a bit in the homestretch. He rebounded from that defeat to win a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race here at Fair Grounds by a massive 10 3/4 lengths, thus stamping him as one of the favorites for this race. However, it's worth noting that Rosie Napravnik -- who rode Mylute in that allowance win -- has chosen to ride Palace Malice instead.

The rest of the entrants would have to step up sharply to contend for the top spot. Golden Soul finished second to Oxbow in the LeComte, but was, of course, beaten over eleven lengths. Agent has won two of his three starts, including a one-mile allowance race at Sam Houston, but lacks the speed figures to really be competitive. Likewise, Ive Struck a Nerve has turned in some nice efforts, including a runner-up finish in the Sugar Bowl Stakes two starts back, but was fourth in the LeComte and has never run a Beyer over 74. Bethel broke his maiden in a claiming race two starts back, then was fourth in a starter allowance race just six days ago. Hardrock Eleven fired a big one when beaten a half-length in the Allen's Landing Stakes last time out, but the distance could be just a bit challenging for him, and like others, his speed figures aren't very high. Circle Unbroken won the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) as a two-year-old, stamping himself as a quality colt, and while he was beaten 16 1/4 lengths when sixth in the LeComte, that was also his first start since August, and his trainer stated beforehand that the colt wasn't fully fit. I expect that Circle Unbroken will show an improved performance today, although whether or not it will be enough to contend for the top prize is open to question.

Selection: Oxbow, Code West, Normandy Invasion

-Keelerman

Fountain of Youth Stakes entries: Violence headlines large field of 11

The unbeaten Violence, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Nashua Stakes (gr. II) last year, will face ten rivals when making his three-year-old debut in the $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Violence has drawn gate three of eleven, and excellent post position given the short run to the first turn. Javier Castellano has the mount on the son of Medaglia d'Oro, who is owned by Black Rock Thoroughbreds.

Also entered in this very deep race are Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III); He's Had Enough, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and most recently third in the Sham Stakes (gr. III); Cerro and Sky Captain, the 1-2 finishers in a recent nine-furlong allowance race; Majestic Hussar, who beat the highly-regarded Palace Malice in a recent seven-furlong allowance race; Orb, who overcame a troubled start to win a nine-furlong allowance race last month; and Speak Logistics, winner of the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes last year and most recently fourth to Falling Sky in the Sam F. Davis Stakes despite a troubled trip.

Post Positions:
1 Orb
2 Joshua's Compromise
3 Violence
4 Majestic Hussar
5 Elmutahid
6 Cerro
7 Sky Captain
8 Speak Logistics
9 He's Had Enough
10 Falling Sky
11 Sr. Quisqueyano

-Keelerman

Falling Sky goes gate-to-wire in Sam F. Davis Stakes

Despite obviously tiring in the homestretch, Falling Sky succeeded in stretching his speed around two turns and won the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs by a neck.

With Jose Espinoza aboard, Falling Sky went straight to the front while setting a moderate pace of :23.49, :47.68, and 1:12.61 seconds. Divine Ambition was tracking him in second, followed by Balino, Dynamic Sky, Silver Day, and Speak Logistics. Lightning Stone, My Name Is Michael, and Midnite Poppa were the trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Dynamic Sky moved up to challenge Falling Sky for the lead, but the front-runner had plenty left in the tank and spurted clear to a two-length lead passing the eighth pole. Dynamic Sky refused to give in, closing fast in the final sixteenth of a mile to cut the margin to just a neck, but Falling Sky held on gamely to win the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:44.79 seconds, a respectable time over the generally slow Tampa Bay Downs main track.

My Name Is Michael rallied belatedly for third, three lengths behind Dynamic Sky. Speak Logistics, Midnite Poppa, Divine Ambition, Silver Day, Lightning Stone, and Balino completed the order of finish.

The winner, a son of Lion Heart out of the Sea Hero mare Sea Dragoness, is trained by John Terranova II and owned by Newton Anner Stud, James Covello, and Joseph Bulger.

-Keelerman

Sam F. Davis Stakes Entries: Dynamic Sky looks for an encore

Dynamic Sky, whose eye-catching Pasco Stakes victory stamped him as a serious Kentucky Derby contend, will look to continue on the road to Louisville when he faces nine rivals in the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, the sight of his Pasco triumph.

Trained by Mark Casse, the son of Sky Mesa flashed a great deal of potential as a two-year-old, debuting with a third-place finish in the Vandal Stakes before winning the Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine and finishing second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland. He concluded his campaign with a troubled sixth-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), in which was beaten just 5 1/4 lengths despite trying to rally over a speed-favoring track. Regular rider Luis Contreras will be aboard in the Sam F. Davis.

Divine Ambition, Silver Day, and Lightning Stone -- the respective 3rd-, 6th-, and 7th-place finishers in the Pasco -- are back to challenge Dynamic Sky again. Display Stakes runner-up My Name is Michael; Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes winner Speak Logistics; allowance winners Falling Sky and Balino; and recent maiden winners Midnite Poppa and Northern Lion round out the field.

Post Positions:
1 Silver Day
2 Divine Ambition
3 My Name Is Michael
4 Speak Logistics
5 Lightning Stone
6 Northern Lion
7 Balino
8 Falling Sky
9 Dynamic Sky
10 Midnite Poppa

-Keelerman

Purple Egg, Falling Sky scratch from Pasco Stakes

Purple Egg and Falling Sky, among the favorites in the $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs, have been scratched from the race due to as-of-yet unknown reasons.

For Purple Egg, who was unbeaten in three starts as a two-year-old, this marks the second time in two weeks that he has been scratched from his expected seasonal debut. On January 1st, he was scratched from the Gulfstream Park Derby after coming down with a mild illness.

Falling Sky, a 6-1 shot on the morning line, was entering the race off of a sharp victory in an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream in December.

The scratch of Purple Egg leaves the coupled entry of Dynamic Sky and Sky Commander as the likely favorites.

-Keelerman

Pasco Stakes entries: Purple Egg makes belated 3yo debut

Purple Egg, who scratched from the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day after coming down with a mild illness, will make his three-year-old debut in Saturday's $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Trained by Jane Cibelli, Purple Egg is unbeaten in three starts, including the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa on December 1st. A son of Lion Heart out of the Prized mare Luminous Prize, Purple Egg is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and will be ridden by Joseph Rocco, Jr.

His primary opposition is expected to come from Dynamic Sky and Sky Commander, a pair of well-regarded runners from the barn of Mark Casse. Dynamic Sky is perhaps the more well-known of the pair, having won the Simcoe Stakes and placed second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), but Sky Commander also deserves respect thanks to his sharp maiden victory two starts back, in which he beat subsequent Display Stakes winner Avie's Quality by a head.

Other prominent contenders include Falling Sky, fourth in the Inaugural but sharp winner of a recent allowance optional claiming race; Hard to Name, who won two in a row on dirt at Parx before finishing ninth in the Dania Beach Stakes on turf; and Falling Sky, winner of an allowance optional claiming race at Tampa on December 22nd.

Post Positions:
1 Mind Spell
2 Falling Sky
3 Dynamic Sky
4 Lightning Stone
5 Purple Egg
6 Silver Day
7 O T B Bob
8 Divine Ambition
9 Hard to Name
10 Sky Commander

-Keelerman