Dynamic Sky overcomes rough trip in Pasco Stakes

Dynamic Sky overcame a rough trip to win the $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs on January 12th, the second stakes victory of his career and his first win on dirt.

Ridden to victory by Luis Contreras, Dynamic Sky got off to a good start at the beginning of the seven-furlong sprint, but soon found himself trapped behind horses as Mind Spell and Divine Ambition set quick fractions of :22.70 and :45.35. Sky Commander was racing about a length behind them in third, followed to his inside by Dynamic Sky and Lightning Stone. Hard to Name, O T B Bob, and Silver Day were the trailers.

Moving round the final turn, Dynamic Sky still lacked racing room, for the three leaders continued to race in a line that kept the colt pinned in toward the rail. However, as the field straightened out for home, Dynamic Sky was guided sharply to the outside by Contreras. He lost a bit of momentum in the process, but was finally clear of traffic and had an opportunity to win the race -- if he was good enough.

He was most certainly good enough.

Unleashing a strong turn-of-foot in the final eighth of a mile, Dynamic Sky blew right past his rivals terrific fashion, edging stablemate Sky Commander to win the race going away by three-quarters of a length. He stopped the clock in a quick 1:22.79 seconds, just 0.66 seconds off the track record of 1:22.13 set in 2011 by Manicero.

Divine Ambition stayed on well to finish third, 1 1/2 lengths behind Sky Commander, while O T B Bob, Mind Spell, Silver Day, Lightning Stone, and Hard to Name completed the order of finish.

The winner was bred in Ontario by Arosa Farms and is a son of Sky Mesa out of the Distorted Humor mare Murani. He is trained by Mark Casse and owned by John Oxley.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 1-13-13

Although there are no official Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this weekend, there are nevertheless a couple of intriguing three-year-old stakes races to be run at Golden Gate Fields and Tampa Bay Downs. And since you never know where the next Derby winner will come from -- Mine That Bird was, of course, in New Mexico at this time four years ago -- we had better take a look at who's running!

Pasco Stakes

Seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs

A field of ten had originally been entered, but the scratches of morning line favorite Purple Egg and 6-1 shot Falling Sky leave the race with eight runners.

Perhaps the most well-known horse in the race is Dynamic Sky, runner-up in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland last fall. Overall, his record is quite strong, but it's worth noting that all of his success has come on Polytrack, and that he was sixth in his only start on dirt. On the other hand, that effort came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) when he was attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track, so maybe his lack of success on dirt is a moot point.

One could also argue that the seven-furlong distance of the Pasco will be a bit short for Dynamic Sky, and that may be the case -- in the end, I think he'll be at his best around two turns. But he did win the Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs, and given the deep nature of Tampa's main track, Dynamic Sky's extra stamina could become a very useful asset in the final furlong.

His primary oppoisition is expected to come from Hard to Name, winner of two straight sprints at Parx Racing last autumn. His most recent effort, a poor ninth in the one-mile Dania Beach Stakes on the turf, can be forgiven. If he reverts to his Parx form, he has the speed to be a contender here.

Also intriguing -- perhaps even more so than Hard to Name -- is Mind Spell, who flashed good speed in winning a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Tampa on December 22nd. Given his proven affinity for the Tampa main track, one has to consider him a legitimate contender in this seemingly wide-open race.

Lightning Stone, a 20-1 shot, is difficult to interpret  All four of his starts have been at one-mile or longer, and three of them -- including his two victories -- have been on turf. His lone run on dirt resulted in a 9 3/4-length defeat in a one-mile maiden special weight at Belmont, his career debut. Given his record, it would be difficult to endorse him in a seven-furlong dirt sprint, yet his pedigree seems to suggest that the main track might not be out of the question, and -- cutting back in distance off of four straight route races -- I can envision him flying late to secure a substantial part of the purse.

Sky Commander, who will run as an entry with Dynamic Sky, broke his maiden in good fashion two starts back, but could manage no better than eighth in the Display Stakes, his most recent effort. On the surface, that doesn't look like a very good record, but please note that in his maiden score, he edged Display winner Avie's Quality by a head. Taking this into consideration, it's probably wise to forgive his dismal run in the Display and expect him to return to form this afternoon.

Also warranting a look is Silver Day, who broke his maiden going a mile at Calder by eight lengths before disappointing in his next two starts, an allowance on dirt in which he was checked in the stretch and a try on turf in the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes.

Rounding out the field are Divine Ambition, a speedy debut winner from Turfway Park that breezed a bullet on January 5th; and O T B Bob, who is still a maiden after five starts.

Personally, I think that Dynamic Sky's class will come through in the end, enabling him to rally in the final furlong to secure a narrow victory. But I also really like the chances of longshots Lightning Stone and Divine Ambition, the latter colt especially, and won't be surprised if one or the other pulls off an upset.

California Derby

1 1/16th miles at Golden Gate Fields

Unlike the Pasco Stakes, this race has a heavy, heavy favorite in Zeewat, and it is very, very difficult to envision him losing.

For one thing, his victory in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes last time out was exceptional. After contending for the lead between rivals for the first three-quarters of a mile, he accelerated sharply in the final quarter mile, running his seventh-eighth in a sharp :12.23 and his final eighth in a downright spectacular :11.56 seconds. As a result, no one was able to challenge him in the stretch, and Zeewat cruised to a 3 1/4-length triumph.

For another thing, two of the six rivals he'll be facing today -- Condiment and My Best Bet -- were soundly beaten in the Gold Rush, and are unlikely to improve enough to catch Zeewat.

So who can challenge Zeewat for victory? Well, the answer may be no one, but if there is any horse that can make a race of it, it's probably Tree of Life. His last two efforts, although bad on the surface, were actually pretty decent runs -- he was beaten just 4 3/4 lengths in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) and just three lengths in the Generous Stakes (gr. III). Furthermore, he won his only start on dirt, that being the 6-1/2 furlong Barretts Juvenile Stakes at Fairplex Park. In the end, he might be better sprinting, but he's flashed enough talent to suggest that victory is not out of the question.

Wildcat Moon, a consistent colt coming off of a two consecutive sprint victories; Avare, third in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita last month; and the filly Butterfly Soul, spectacular winner of the Phil D. Shephard Stakes on the dirt at Fairplex; round out the field.

My selection -- not surprisingly -- is Zeewat. The possibility exists that Wildcat Moon could force the favorite into too quick an early pace, thus setting the race up for a closer, but I think that Zeewat is probably good enough to hold off the late runners even if he does sprint hard early.

-Keelerman

Pasco Stakes entries: Purple Egg makes belated 3yo debut

Purple Egg, who scratched from the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year's Day after coming down with a mild illness, will make his three-year-old debut in Saturday's $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.

Trained by Jane Cibelli, Purple Egg is unbeaten in three starts, including the Inaugural Stakes at Tampa on December 1st. A son of Lion Heart out of the Prized mare Luminous Prize, Purple Egg is the morning line favorite at 2-1 and will be ridden by Joseph Rocco, Jr.

His primary opposition is expected to come from Dynamic Sky and Sky Commander, a pair of well-regarded runners from the barn of Mark Casse. Dynamic Sky is perhaps the more well-known of the pair, having won the Simcoe Stakes and placed second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I), but Sky Commander also deserves respect thanks to his sharp maiden victory two starts back, in which he beat subsequent Display Stakes winner Avie's Quality by a head.

Other prominent contenders include Falling Sky, fourth in the Inaugural but sharp winner of a recent allowance optional claiming race; Hard to Name, who won two in a row on dirt at Parx before finishing ninth in the Dania Beach Stakes on turf; and Falling Sky, winner of an allowance optional claiming race at Tampa on December 22nd.

Post Positions:
1 Mind Spell
2 Falling Sky
3 Dynamic Sky
4 Lightning Stone
5 Purple Egg
6 Silver Day
7 O T B Bob
8 Divine Ambition
9 Hard to Name
10 Sky Commander

-Keelerman