Dice Flavor rallies for El Camino Real Derby victory

9-1 shot Dice Flavor rallied powerfully from off-the-pace to win the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields in decisive fashion.

With Jose Valdivia Jr. aboard, Dice Flavor settled back into the eighth position early on as the favorite Manando sprinted clear of the field while setting fractions of :23.10, :47.34, and 1:11.67 seconds. Wildcat Moon and Counting Days were racing in second and third, with Carving some eight lengths behind Manando in fourth place. Zeewat, Rush In, Nina's Dragon, Dice Flavor, and North Pacific trailed the field.

Turning for home, the field caught up with Manando, who quickly retreated to a last-place finish. Wildcat Moon and Counting Days were the first to take command, but they were soon passed by Dice Flavor, who overcame a bit of traffic at the top of the stretch and rallied to the front. He drew off powerfully from there, eventually hitting the wire 3 3/4 lengths in front while stopping the clock for nine furlongs in 1:51.45 seconds.

Nina's Dragon finished up well to edge Counting Days for second, while Carving rounded out the superfecta. Zeewat, Wildcat Moon, North Pacific, Rush In, and Manando completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Patrick Gallagher and owned by Oda Racing Stable and US Equine. A son of Scat Daddy out of the Afleet mare Afleet Summer, Dice Flavor has now compiled a record of 2-0-2 from 5 starts, with earnings of $160,500.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-16-13

Although there are three Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this weekend -- officially only two, since the San Vicente isn't worth any points -- this weekend is actually just an appetizer for what is to come. Next week, the second stage of the Kentucky Derby prep schedule begins, with the value of each prep race jumping from 10 points to the winner to a massive 50 points to the winner.

This week's Triple Crown Countdown shall be split into three separate posts, each one covering one of the three weekend prep races. The first one, which you are currently reading, will cover the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). The second, which shall be posted tomorrow, will cover the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II). The last, scheduled for Monday, will discuss the Southwest Stakes (gr. III).

So without further ado, let's get started!

El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)

Nine furlongs at Golden Gate Fields

To me, this race looks like a two-horse battle between Manando and Zeewat, who are -- not surprisingly -- the two favorites. The first-mentioned colt is one of two Bob Baffert-trainees entered in the race, and is coming off of a sharp third-place finish to Goldencents and Den's Legacy in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita. What was encouraging about his performance that day was that he set a very honest pace -- 1:10.06 for three-quarters of a mile -- and fought on tenaciously in the homestretch when challenged by Goldencents. Now, there are plenty of other speedy horses in this race, so the possibility exists that Manando could get caught up in a destructive pace duel. But on the other hand, it's also possible that Manando is simply the best horse in the race.

Zeewat has won three stakes races and is a perfect 2-for-2 since adding blinkers, but lacks the same flashy Beyer speed figures of Manando. However, what he does have is experience at Golden Gate Fields, and a proven ability to overcome traffic issues. Last time out, he was forced to check sharply at the start of the California Derby, but quickly settled into fourth position and rallied well in the stretch to win by a half-length. And don't forget that he is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and will be ridden by Russell Baze, the two kings of Northern California racing.

If anyone can upset the top two choices, it's probably Baffert's other runner, Carving. The colt broke his maiden first time out for a claiming price at Del Mar, then stepped up to win the C. B. Afflerbaugh at Fairplex Park over next-out stakes winner Monument. That effort was followed by a distant fourth in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), a victory in the Real Quiet Stakes, and a poor sixth in the CashCal Futurity (gr. I). Stepping down into grade III company today, Carving should have every chance at regaining his best form, and has the speed to be a presence from the start. I expect to see him settle just off of the early lead, perhaps in second or third, before attacking in the homestretch.

The remainder of the field would have to showcase major improvement to win. Wildcat Moon was beaten just a half-length by Zeewat in the California Derby, but that was after he ducked in sharply at the start and caused Zeewat to check. He's got decent speed, but stretching out to nine furlongs against this company will be a very difficult task. Rush In and Nina's Dragon finished just a half-length apart when second and third to the talented Greeley Awesome in a recent allowance race, and while both have flashed talent, Rush In was soundly beaten by Zeewat three starts back, and neither have run a Beyer speed figure over 77. Dice Flavor broke his maiden nicely at Betfair Hollywood Park two starts back, and was beaten just three-quarters of a length in an allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita last time out, but is trying synthetic for the first time, and has yet to earn a Beyer over 74. Nevertheless, his sire is Scat Daddy, whose son Daddy Nose Best won this race last year, and he's shown a nice turn-of-foot on the turf, so Dice Flavor could potentially be a very overlooked contender in this race. North Pacific began his career at Hastings Park, and comes into this race off a nice victory going six furlongs here at Golden Gate, but he's facing winners for the first time and seems better sprinting. Rounding out the field is Counting Days, who won a maiden claiming race at Keeneland last fall by 10 1/4 lengths before finishing seventh in the Generous Stakes and fifth in a six-furlong allowance sprint. The distance and surface seem right, but he'll need a major step forward to defeat this field.

Selections: Manando, Zeewat, Dice Flavor

Other Races of Note

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 4: Eight horses were originally entered in this nine-furlong maiden special weight, but the scratch of Quiros will leave seven in the starting gate. Todd Pletcher's Abraham is the morning line favorite off of a nose defeat in his debut sprinting. Being by Distorted Humor out of an El Prado mare, Abraham shouldn't have any trouble with the added distance. Successful Brother has finished second in two consecutive maiden special weights at Calder and Gulfstream, but failed to rally despite a favorable pace scenario on both occasions. Nick Zito's The Candidate turned in a nice rally from well off behind to finish fourth in a one-mile maiden race here at Gulfstream, and should appreciate the added distance. If Abraham gets leg-weary in his first start around two turns, expect The Candidate to be absolutely flying late.

Race 5: This nine-furlong maiden special weight was originally scheduled to be run on the turf, but the race was moved to the main track following heavy rains at Gulfstream, the result being eight scratches. That leaves a field of six to contest the race, led by Todd Pletcher's Unitarian. The colt has been soundly beaten in all three of his starts thus far, but with Pulpit and Dynaformer in his immediate pedigree, he should at least enjoy the distance of today's race -- although it didn't help him last month when he finished fourth in a similar race here at Gulfstream. Personally, I am intrigued by Pontiff, a Dale Romans-trained half-brother to Pulpit. Although he showed nothing when ninth in his debut last month, he has trained well enough since then, and I'm hopeful that he'll show improvement today. Conservationalist, also trained by Romans, could also improve off of a deceptively good sixth in a maiden special weight on the turf.

Race 9: To me, this 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race is one of the highlights of the weekend, for this race marks the return of Capo Bastone. The son of Street Boss ran third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year, despite trying to rally over speed-favoring tracks on both occasions. Subsequently transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher, Capo Bastone looks like a deserving favorite in this spot, but if he needs to get a race under his belt before returning to top form, there are plenty of other horses here that could pull off the upset. The most obvious are Sky Commander, runner-up to Dynamic Sky in the Pasco Stakes last month; Duke of the City, who finished second to Orb in a recent nine-furlong maiden special weight; and Edge of Reality, who absolutely romped in his debut at Parx Racing for trainer Anthony Dutrow. Given that Anthony Dutrow's horses rarely win first-time out, one has to think that Edge of Reality could be sitting on a very big performance today.

At Santa Anita Park . . .

Race 7: The two favorites in this seven-furlong maiden special weight are Del Mar Sunset and Okaad, a pair of Bob Baffert-trained colts with a lot of potential. Del Mar Sunset has run once before, finishing third by a half-length behind the highly-regarded pair Demonic and Tiz the Truth in a race identical to this one. Okaad has also run just once, finishing fourth behind romping winner Treasury Bill in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on January 27th. There are plenty of other promising horses in this race, including the first-time starter Mistaken Identity, but it's hard to envision Baffert losing this race.

-Keelerman

El Camino Real Derby entries: Zeewat goes for 3rd straight win

Three-time stakes winner Zeewat will attempt to stretch his running streak to three on Saturday when he heads to post as the likely favorite for the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields.

Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the son of Harlan's Holiday enters this race off of an eye-catching victory in the California Derby, in which he overcame a troubled start to win by a half-length. As a two-year-old, Zeewat won the Gold Rush Stakes and Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes, in addition to placing third in the Golden Nugget Stakes and fourth in the Tim Conway Stakes.

Lined up to face Zeewat are eight other promising three-year-olds, including two -- Manando and Carving -- from the barn of three-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert. Manando enters the El Camino off of a close third-place finish to Goldencents and Den's Legacy in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita, while Carving is making his three-year-old debut after completing a successful two-year-old campaign that included victories in the Real Quiet Stakes and C. B. Afflerbaugh Stakes.

Other prominent entrants include Rush In and Nina Dragon, the 2-3 finishers behind Greeley Awesome in a recent allowance optional claiming race; and Wildcat Moon, the runner-up to Zeewat in the California Derby.

Post Positions:
1 Wildcat Moon
2 Rush In
3 Counting Days
4 Manando
5 Zeewat
6 Nina's Dragon
7 North Pacific
8 Carving
9 Dice Flavor

-Keelerman

Zeewat overcomes trouble in California Derby

Heavily favored Zeewat overcame trouble at the start of the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields to win the 1 1/16th miles race with a strong late rally.

Ridden to victory by Russell Baze, Zeewat broke just a step slowly at the start of the race and was forced to check hard when Wildcat Moon drifted sharply inward immediately after the start. As a result, Zeewat -- who normally races close to the pace -- found himself back in fourth as Wildcat Moon led the way through fractions of :25.43, :50.60, and 1:15.25 seconds. Tree of Life and Will True Up were his closest pursuers, while My Best Bet, Butterfly Soul, and Condiment were the trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Baze guided Zeewat to the far outside, and the colt responded with a burst of speed that put him in contention at the top of the stretch. Wildcat Moon stayed on gamely in the final eighth of a mile, attempting to hold off the favorite's rally, but Zeewat was simply too good, getting up in time to win a length in 1:46.50 seconds.

Tree of Life finished third, followed by Butterfly Soul, Will True Up, Condiment, and My Best Bet.

Zeewat is a son of Harlan's Holiday out of Delizia, by Distant View. He is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and owned by George Todaro and Jerry Hollendorfer.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 1-13-13

Although there are no official Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this weekend, there are nevertheless a couple of intriguing three-year-old stakes races to be run at Golden Gate Fields and Tampa Bay Downs. And since you never know where the next Derby winner will come from -- Mine That Bird was, of course, in New Mexico at this time four years ago -- we had better take a look at who's running!

Pasco Stakes

Seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs

A field of ten had originally been entered, but the scratches of morning line favorite Purple Egg and 6-1 shot Falling Sky leave the race with eight runners.

Perhaps the most well-known horse in the race is Dynamic Sky, runner-up in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland last fall. Overall, his record is quite strong, but it's worth noting that all of his success has come on Polytrack, and that he was sixth in his only start on dirt. On the other hand, that effort came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) when he was attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track, so maybe his lack of success on dirt is a moot point.

One could also argue that the seven-furlong distance of the Pasco will be a bit short for Dynamic Sky, and that may be the case -- in the end, I think he'll be at his best around two turns. But he did win the Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs, and given the deep nature of Tampa's main track, Dynamic Sky's extra stamina could become a very useful asset in the final furlong.

His primary oppoisition is expected to come from Hard to Name, winner of two straight sprints at Parx Racing last autumn. His most recent effort, a poor ninth in the one-mile Dania Beach Stakes on the turf, can be forgiven. If he reverts to his Parx form, he has the speed to be a contender here.

Also intriguing -- perhaps even more so than Hard to Name -- is Mind Spell, who flashed good speed in winning a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Tampa on December 22nd. Given his proven affinity for the Tampa main track, one has to consider him a legitimate contender in this seemingly wide-open race.

Lightning Stone, a 20-1 shot, is difficult to interpret  All four of his starts have been at one-mile or longer, and three of them -- including his two victories -- have been on turf. His lone run on dirt resulted in a 9 3/4-length defeat in a one-mile maiden special weight at Belmont, his career debut. Given his record, it would be difficult to endorse him in a seven-furlong dirt sprint, yet his pedigree seems to suggest that the main track might not be out of the question, and -- cutting back in distance off of four straight route races -- I can envision him flying late to secure a substantial part of the purse.

Sky Commander, who will run as an entry with Dynamic Sky, broke his maiden in good fashion two starts back, but could manage no better than eighth in the Display Stakes, his most recent effort. On the surface, that doesn't look like a very good record, but please note that in his maiden score, he edged Display winner Avie's Quality by a head. Taking this into consideration, it's probably wise to forgive his dismal run in the Display and expect him to return to form this afternoon.

Also warranting a look is Silver Day, who broke his maiden going a mile at Calder by eight lengths before disappointing in his next two starts, an allowance on dirt in which he was checked in the stretch and a try on turf in the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes.

Rounding out the field are Divine Ambition, a speedy debut winner from Turfway Park that breezed a bullet on January 5th; and O T B Bob, who is still a maiden after five starts.

Personally, I think that Dynamic Sky's class will come through in the end, enabling him to rally in the final furlong to secure a narrow victory. But I also really like the chances of longshots Lightning Stone and Divine Ambition, the latter colt especially, and won't be surprised if one or the other pulls off an upset.

California Derby

1 1/16th miles at Golden Gate Fields

Unlike the Pasco Stakes, this race has a heavy, heavy favorite in Zeewat, and it is very, very difficult to envision him losing.

For one thing, his victory in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes last time out was exceptional. After contending for the lead between rivals for the first three-quarters of a mile, he accelerated sharply in the final quarter mile, running his seventh-eighth in a sharp :12.23 and his final eighth in a downright spectacular :11.56 seconds. As a result, no one was able to challenge him in the stretch, and Zeewat cruised to a 3 1/4-length triumph.

For another thing, two of the six rivals he'll be facing today -- Condiment and My Best Bet -- were soundly beaten in the Gold Rush, and are unlikely to improve enough to catch Zeewat.

So who can challenge Zeewat for victory? Well, the answer may be no one, but if there is any horse that can make a race of it, it's probably Tree of Life. His last two efforts, although bad on the surface, were actually pretty decent runs -- he was beaten just 4 3/4 lengths in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) and just three lengths in the Generous Stakes (gr. III). Furthermore, he won his only start on dirt, that being the 6-1/2 furlong Barretts Juvenile Stakes at Fairplex Park. In the end, he might be better sprinting, but he's flashed enough talent to suggest that victory is not out of the question.

Wildcat Moon, a consistent colt coming off of a two consecutive sprint victories; Avare, third in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita last month; and the filly Butterfly Soul, spectacular winner of the Phil D. Shephard Stakes on the dirt at Fairplex; round out the field.

My selection -- not surprisingly -- is Zeewat. The possibility exists that Wildcat Moon could force the favorite into too quick an early pace, thus setting the race up for a closer, but I think that Zeewat is probably good enough to hold off the late runners even if he does sprint hard early.

-Keelerman

California Derby entries: Zeewat goes for third stakes win

Two-time stakes winner Zeewat will attempt to add a third stakes to his record when he takes on six rivals in the $100,000 California Derby on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields.

Coming off of an impressive victory in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes on December 8th, in which he showed strong homestretch acceleration in to win by 3 1/4 lengths, Zeewat is expected to be heavily favored in Saturday's 1 1/16th miles race.

Condiment and My Best Bet, the second- and third-place finishers from the Gold Rush, are back to take on Zeewat again. Stakes winners Tree of Life and Butterfly Soul; Eddie Logan Stakes third-place finisher Will True Up; and the consistent two-time winner Wildcat Moon complete the lineup.

Post Positions:
1 Will True Up
2 Condiment
3 Zeewat
4 Wildcat Moon
5 Tree of Life
6 Butterfly Soul
7 My Best Bet

-Keelerman