Triple Crown Countdown 2-16-13

Although there are three Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this weekend -- officially only two, since the San Vicente isn't worth any points -- this weekend is actually just an appetizer for what is to come. Next week, the second stage of the Kentucky Derby prep schedule begins, with the value of each prep race jumping from 10 points to the winner to a massive 50 points to the winner.

This week's Triple Crown Countdown shall be split into three separate posts, each one covering one of the three weekend prep races. The first one, which you are currently reading, will cover the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). The second, which shall be posted tomorrow, will cover the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II). The last, scheduled for Monday, will discuss the Southwest Stakes (gr. III).

So without further ado, let's get started!

El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)

Nine furlongs at Golden Gate Fields

To me, this race looks like a two-horse battle between Manando and Zeewat, who are -- not surprisingly -- the two favorites. The first-mentioned colt is one of two Bob Baffert-trainees entered in the race, and is coming off of a sharp third-place finish to Goldencents and Den's Legacy in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita. What was encouraging about his performance that day was that he set a very honest pace -- 1:10.06 for three-quarters of a mile -- and fought on tenaciously in the homestretch when challenged by Goldencents. Now, there are plenty of other speedy horses in this race, so the possibility exists that Manando could get caught up in a destructive pace duel. But on the other hand, it's also possible that Manando is simply the best horse in the race.

Zeewat has won three stakes races and is a perfect 2-for-2 since adding blinkers, but lacks the same flashy Beyer speed figures of Manando. However, what he does have is experience at Golden Gate Fields, and a proven ability to overcome traffic issues. Last time out, he was forced to check sharply at the start of the California Derby, but quickly settled into fourth position and rallied well in the stretch to win by a half-length. And don't forget that he is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and will be ridden by Russell Baze, the two kings of Northern California racing.

If anyone can upset the top two choices, it's probably Baffert's other runner, Carving. The colt broke his maiden first time out for a claiming price at Del Mar, then stepped up to win the C. B. Afflerbaugh at Fairplex Park over next-out stakes winner Monument. That effort was followed by a distant fourth in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), a victory in the Real Quiet Stakes, and a poor sixth in the CashCal Futurity (gr. I). Stepping down into grade III company today, Carving should have every chance at regaining his best form, and has the speed to be a presence from the start. I expect to see him settle just off of the early lead, perhaps in second or third, before attacking in the homestretch.

The remainder of the field would have to showcase major improvement to win. Wildcat Moon was beaten just a half-length by Zeewat in the California Derby, but that was after he ducked in sharply at the start and caused Zeewat to check. He's got decent speed, but stretching out to nine furlongs against this company will be a very difficult task. Rush In and Nina's Dragon finished just a half-length apart when second and third to the talented Greeley Awesome in a recent allowance race, and while both have flashed talent, Rush In was soundly beaten by Zeewat three starts back, and neither have run a Beyer speed figure over 77. Dice Flavor broke his maiden nicely at Betfair Hollywood Park two starts back, and was beaten just three-quarters of a length in an allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita last time out, but is trying synthetic for the first time, and has yet to earn a Beyer over 74. Nevertheless, his sire is Scat Daddy, whose son Daddy Nose Best won this race last year, and he's shown a nice turn-of-foot on the turf, so Dice Flavor could potentially be a very overlooked contender in this race. North Pacific began his career at Hastings Park, and comes into this race off a nice victory going six furlongs here at Golden Gate, but he's facing winners for the first time and seems better sprinting. Rounding out the field is Counting Days, who won a maiden claiming race at Keeneland last fall by 10 1/4 lengths before finishing seventh in the Generous Stakes and fifth in a six-furlong allowance sprint. The distance and surface seem right, but he'll need a major step forward to defeat this field.

Selections: Manando, Zeewat, Dice Flavor

Other Races of Note

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 4: Eight horses were originally entered in this nine-furlong maiden special weight, but the scratch of Quiros will leave seven in the starting gate. Todd Pletcher's Abraham is the morning line favorite off of a nose defeat in his debut sprinting. Being by Distorted Humor out of an El Prado mare, Abraham shouldn't have any trouble with the added distance. Successful Brother has finished second in two consecutive maiden special weights at Calder and Gulfstream, but failed to rally despite a favorable pace scenario on both occasions. Nick Zito's The Candidate turned in a nice rally from well off behind to finish fourth in a one-mile maiden race here at Gulfstream, and should appreciate the added distance. If Abraham gets leg-weary in his first start around two turns, expect The Candidate to be absolutely flying late.

Race 5: This nine-furlong maiden special weight was originally scheduled to be run on the turf, but the race was moved to the main track following heavy rains at Gulfstream, the result being eight scratches. That leaves a field of six to contest the race, led by Todd Pletcher's Unitarian. The colt has been soundly beaten in all three of his starts thus far, but with Pulpit and Dynaformer in his immediate pedigree, he should at least enjoy the distance of today's race -- although it didn't help him last month when he finished fourth in a similar race here at Gulfstream. Personally, I am intrigued by Pontiff, a Dale Romans-trained half-brother to Pulpit. Although he showed nothing when ninth in his debut last month, he has trained well enough since then, and I'm hopeful that he'll show improvement today. Conservationalist, also trained by Romans, could also improve off of a deceptively good sixth in a maiden special weight on the turf.

Race 9: To me, this 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race is one of the highlights of the weekend, for this race marks the return of Capo Bastone. The son of Street Boss ran third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year, despite trying to rally over speed-favoring tracks on both occasions. Subsequently transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher, Capo Bastone looks like a deserving favorite in this spot, but if he needs to get a race under his belt before returning to top form, there are plenty of other horses here that could pull off the upset. The most obvious are Sky Commander, runner-up to Dynamic Sky in the Pasco Stakes last month; Duke of the City, who finished second to Orb in a recent nine-furlong maiden special weight; and Edge of Reality, who absolutely romped in his debut at Parx Racing for trainer Anthony Dutrow. Given that Anthony Dutrow's horses rarely win first-time out, one has to think that Edge of Reality could be sitting on a very big performance today.

At Santa Anita Park . . .

Race 7: The two favorites in this seven-furlong maiden special weight are Del Mar Sunset and Okaad, a pair of Bob Baffert-trained colts with a lot of potential. Del Mar Sunset has run once before, finishing third by a half-length behind the highly-regarded pair Demonic and Tiz the Truth in a race identical to this one. Okaad has also run just once, finishing fourth behind romping winner Treasury Bill in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on January 27th. There are plenty of other promising horses in this race, including the first-time starter Mistaken Identity, but it's hard to envision Baffert losing this race.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 1-5-13

Excitement is in the air! The first "official" Kentucky Derby prep race of the year -- "official" meaning a race that offers Kentucky Derby qualification points -- is scheduled to be held later this afternoon at Santa Anita Park.

That race is, of course, the $100,000 Sham Stakes (gr. III), which features Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) winner Goldencents and the promising Bob Baffert-trained pair Den's Legacy and Manando.

Also on today's schedule is the $200,000 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct, where promising maiden winners Long River and Mudflats take on the proven stakes-caliber colts Vegas No Show and Vyjack. While it does not offer Kentucky Derby points, it is still a prominent stop on the road to Louisville, and I'm excited to see what happens.

Let's begin!

Sham Stakes (gr. III)

8 furlongs (two-turn mile)

The first of Santa Anita's four official Kentucky Derby preps drew a field of six. You may view the entries here.

The morning line favorite at 4-5 is -- not surprisingly -- Goldencents. The Doug O'Neill-trained son of Into Mischief has done nothing wrong during his brief career, sandwiching victories in a maiden special weight and the million-dollar Delta Jackpot around a runner-up effort to Shanghai Bobby in the prestigious Champagne Stakes (gr. I). On paper, the speedy front-runner looks virtually unbeatable.

However, I think he could be somewhat vulnerable. I felt that his effort in the Champagne was aided to some degree by a track bias, and in the Delta Jackpot, he was all-out to contain the late charge of favored Bern Identity, who was last with five-sixteenths of a mile to go following a very difficult trip.

Of course, regardless of these opinions, Goldencents should be tough to beat, and I will certainly not be surprised if he wins impressively. But I think that Manando could give him a run for the money. The son of Bluegrass Cat began his career with a trio of third-place finishes, including one on November 25th in which he was beaten by the good colts Distinctiv Passion and Belvin, with Appealing Tale further back in fourth. Last time out, he finally broke through with a victory, striding impressively to a gate-to-wire, 5 1/4-length triumph.

Making this race even more interesting is the fact that while Goldencents and Manando have both scored impressive front-running victories, Goldencents does appear to have considerably more early speed. Manando accomplished his maiden victory by running the opening half mile in :48.90 and the second half-mile in :48.77, followed by a final sixteenth in :06.38 seconds. Goldencents, on the other hand, won the Delta Jackpot by blazing the opening half-mile in :46.22, the second half in :51.81, and the final sixteenth in 1:44.89.

Thus, it seems that Goldencents has a strong tactical advantage in this spot, while Manando has a much stronger finishing kick. Perhaps I'm crazy, but I'm going to side with Manando for the victory, in hopes that his strong stretch kick will enable him to reel in Goldencents late in the race, much like Out of Bounds did in this race last year against the speedy Secret Circle.

The remaining Sham entrants have major questions to answer. Den's Legacy rallied strongly to be third in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), but finished an unimpressive fifth in his lone start on dirt. The same goes for Dry Summer, a stakes winner on turf but eighth in his only effort on dirt. Greely Awesome broke his maiden by 9 1/4 lengths last time out, but that was in a maiden claiming race -- he has finished no better than fourth in maiden special weight company, and trainer Doug O'Neill told DRF.com that the only reason Greely Awesome has been entered is because there were no other suitable races available. Dirty Swagg has proven himself talented enough to be beaten a length in the Real Quiet Stakes, but was most recently seventh in the CashCall Futurity and appears to be in a bit deep here.

Jerome Stakes (gr. II)

1 mile and 70 yards

(You may view the entries here.)

While the Sham Stakes may be the more important prep race, I am actually more excited about watching the Jerome, for one of my top-ranked Derby contenders is entered. The colt in question is Long River, a beautifully-bred son of A.P. Indy out of 2006 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. I) winner Round Pond. Owned and bred by Darley, Long River began his career with a pair of decent efforts at Belmont Park, including a runner-up finish to the highly-regarded Delhomme in what could be considered a key race. Most recently, Long River broke through with a three-quarter length triumph over the promising colt Mr. Palmer in a one-mile, 70-yard maiden special weight here at Aqueduct. I feel that there is a lot of improvement still to come from Long River, and while he might not win today, I'm very excited to see how he progresses further down the road.

Long River aside, the morning line favorite at 2-1 is the unbeaten Vyjack, winner of the seven-furlong Traskwood Stakes at Aqueduct last month. While he has been very impressive in both of his victories, he has never run farther than seven furlongs, and has never run around two turns before. These facts, coupled with his sprinter-oriented pedigree, make me suspect that the distance of the Jerome may prove to be just a bit too far for Vyjack.

Mudflats, a son of Tapit, broke his maiden last time out by 3 1/4 lengths for trainer Eddie Keneally, but has since been transferred to the care of Doug O'Neill. There's no denying that Mudflats has talent, but it is worth noting that he was soundly beaten by Long River two starts back, and this will be his first start around two turns.

To me, Vegas No Show is an intriguing contender. Winner of the Dover Stakes three starts back at the same distance as the Jerome, he subsequently finished second to CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Violence in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) before finishing a dismal ninth in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) without any apparent excuse. He has trained well since then, and a return to his previous form could earn him the victory today.

Notacatbutallama, a two-time stakes winner trained by Todd Pletcher, makes his second start on dirt following a runner-up effort in the Damon Runyon Stakes over a sloppy track. With Ramon Dominguez accepting the mount, I doubt he'll go off at his 12-1 morning line odds.

Rounding out the field are Amerigo Vespucci, twice runner-up to the good colt Whiskey Romeo in stakes races at Laurel; Siete de Oros, third in the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes last time out; and James Jingle, who has finished behind Notacatbutallama in three consecutive stakes events, including the Damon Runyon.

It's not easy making a selection in a wide-open race like this one, but I'll go ahead and side with Long River for the victory, with respect to Vegas No Show and Notacatbutallama.

Other Races of Note

While Gulfstream Park is not offering any stakes action for three-year-olds this weekend, there are nevertheless a trio of interesting maiden and allowance events on the Saturday card that merit watching.

First and foremost to me is the ninth race of the day, a one-mile maiden special weight on the main track. The colt I have my eye on is Pontiff, an unraced half-brother to the recently deceased stallion Pulpit. He is owned by Donegal Racing . . . he is trained by Dale Romans . . . he will be ridden by Joel Rosario . . . sounds like a good combination to me!

There is another one-mile maiden special weight on the card as well -- apparently, there were enough entries to split the race into two divisions. In this race, I am excited to watch the debut of Todd Pletcher's Doherty, a son of Giant's Causeway, as well as The Candidate, a second-time starter from the barn of Nick Zito.

The third race is a one-mile allowance race on the turf, in which the morning line favorite -- following three scratches -- is the stakes-placed colt Thunder Calls, who was most recently seventh in the Dania Beach Stakes.

Out at Santa Anita Park, a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight is to be held one race prior to the Sham Stakes. The event has drawn a field of nine, including three colts trained by Bob Baffert -- Chasintheaces, Secretsatmidnight, and Spirited Touch. You can make a case for any of them, as well as Steve Asmussen's promising colt Cabello Del Cielo and John Sadler's Bench Press.

-Keelerman