Zeewat overcomes trouble in California Derby

Heavily favored Zeewat overcame trouble at the start of the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields to win the 1 1/16th miles race with a strong late rally.

Ridden to victory by Russell Baze, Zeewat broke just a step slowly at the start of the race and was forced to check hard when Wildcat Moon drifted sharply inward immediately after the start. As a result, Zeewat -- who normally races close to the pace -- found himself back in fourth as Wildcat Moon led the way through fractions of :25.43, :50.60, and 1:15.25 seconds. Tree of Life and Will True Up were his closest pursuers, while My Best Bet, Butterfly Soul, and Condiment were the trailers.

Rounding the final turn, Baze guided Zeewat to the far outside, and the colt responded with a burst of speed that put him in contention at the top of the stretch. Wildcat Moon stayed on gamely in the final eighth of a mile, attempting to hold off the favorite's rally, but Zeewat was simply too good, getting up in time to win a length in 1:46.50 seconds.

Tree of Life finished third, followed by Butterfly Soul, Will True Up, Condiment, and My Best Bet.

Zeewat is a son of Harlan's Holiday out of Delizia, by Distant View. He is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and owned by George Todaro and Jerry Hollendorfer.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 1-13-13

Although there are no official Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this weekend, there are nevertheless a couple of intriguing three-year-old stakes races to be run at Golden Gate Fields and Tampa Bay Downs. And since you never know where the next Derby winner will come from -- Mine That Bird was, of course, in New Mexico at this time four years ago -- we had better take a look at who's running!

Pasco Stakes

Seven furlongs at Tampa Bay Downs

A field of ten had originally been entered, but the scratches of morning line favorite Purple Egg and 6-1 shot Falling Sky leave the race with eight runners.

Perhaps the most well-known horse in the race is Dynamic Sky, runner-up in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland last fall. Overall, his record is quite strong, but it's worth noting that all of his success has come on Polytrack, and that he was sixth in his only start on dirt. On the other hand, that effort came in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) when he was attempting to rally over a speed-favoring track, so maybe his lack of success on dirt is a moot point.

One could also argue that the seven-furlong distance of the Pasco will be a bit short for Dynamic Sky, and that may be the case -- in the end, I think he'll be at his best around two turns. But he did win the Simcoe Stakes at Woodbine sprinting 6-1/2 furlongs, and given the deep nature of Tampa's main track, Dynamic Sky's extra stamina could become a very useful asset in the final furlong.

His primary oppoisition is expected to come from Hard to Name, winner of two straight sprints at Parx Racing last autumn. His most recent effort, a poor ninth in the one-mile Dania Beach Stakes on the turf, can be forgiven. If he reverts to his Parx form, he has the speed to be a contender here.

Also intriguing -- perhaps even more so than Hard to Name -- is Mind Spell, who flashed good speed in winning a six-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Tampa on December 22nd. Given his proven affinity for the Tampa main track, one has to consider him a legitimate contender in this seemingly wide-open race.

Lightning Stone, a 20-1 shot, is difficult to interpret  All four of his starts have been at one-mile or longer, and three of them -- including his two victories -- have been on turf. His lone run on dirt resulted in a 9 3/4-length defeat in a one-mile maiden special weight at Belmont, his career debut. Given his record, it would be difficult to endorse him in a seven-furlong dirt sprint, yet his pedigree seems to suggest that the main track might not be out of the question, and -- cutting back in distance off of four straight route races -- I can envision him flying late to secure a substantial part of the purse.

Sky Commander, who will run as an entry with Dynamic Sky, broke his maiden in good fashion two starts back, but could manage no better than eighth in the Display Stakes, his most recent effort. On the surface, that doesn't look like a very good record, but please note that in his maiden score, he edged Display winner Avie's Quality by a head. Taking this into consideration, it's probably wise to forgive his dismal run in the Display and expect him to return to form this afternoon.

Also warranting a look is Silver Day, who broke his maiden going a mile at Calder by eight lengths before disappointing in his next two starts, an allowance on dirt in which he was checked in the stretch and a try on turf in the Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf Stakes.

Rounding out the field are Divine Ambition, a speedy debut winner from Turfway Park that breezed a bullet on January 5th; and O T B Bob, who is still a maiden after five starts.

Personally, I think that Dynamic Sky's class will come through in the end, enabling him to rally in the final furlong to secure a narrow victory. But I also really like the chances of longshots Lightning Stone and Divine Ambition, the latter colt especially, and won't be surprised if one or the other pulls off an upset.

California Derby

1 1/16th miles at Golden Gate Fields

Unlike the Pasco Stakes, this race has a heavy, heavy favorite in Zeewat, and it is very, very difficult to envision him losing.

For one thing, his victory in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes last time out was exceptional. After contending for the lead between rivals for the first three-quarters of a mile, he accelerated sharply in the final quarter mile, running his seventh-eighth in a sharp :12.23 and his final eighth in a downright spectacular :11.56 seconds. As a result, no one was able to challenge him in the stretch, and Zeewat cruised to a 3 1/4-length triumph.

For another thing, two of the six rivals he'll be facing today -- Condiment and My Best Bet -- were soundly beaten in the Gold Rush, and are unlikely to improve enough to catch Zeewat.

So who can challenge Zeewat for victory? Well, the answer may be no one, but if there is any horse that can make a race of it, it's probably Tree of Life. His last two efforts, although bad on the surface, were actually pretty decent runs -- he was beaten just 4 3/4 lengths in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) and just three lengths in the Generous Stakes (gr. III). Furthermore, he won his only start on dirt, that being the 6-1/2 furlong Barretts Juvenile Stakes at Fairplex Park. In the end, he might be better sprinting, but he's flashed enough talent to suggest that victory is not out of the question.

Wildcat Moon, a consistent colt coming off of a two consecutive sprint victories; Avare, third in the Eddie Logan Stakes at Santa Anita last month; and the filly Butterfly Soul, spectacular winner of the Phil D. Shephard Stakes on the dirt at Fairplex; round out the field.

My selection -- not surprisingly -- is Zeewat. The possibility exists that Wildcat Moon could force the favorite into too quick an early pace, thus setting the race up for a closer, but I think that Zeewat is probably good enough to hold off the late runners even if he does sprint hard early.

-Keelerman

California Derby entries: Zeewat goes for third stakes win

Two-time stakes winner Zeewat will attempt to add a third stakes to his record when he takes on six rivals in the $100,000 California Derby on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields.

Coming off of an impressive victory in the one-mile Gold Rush Stakes on December 8th, in which he showed strong homestretch acceleration in to win by 3 1/4 lengths, Zeewat is expected to be heavily favored in Saturday's 1 1/16th miles race.

Condiment and My Best Bet, the second- and third-place finishers from the Gold Rush, are back to take on Zeewat again. Stakes winners Tree of Life and Butterfly Soul; Eddie Logan Stakes third-place finisher Will True Up; and the consistent two-time winner Wildcat Moon complete the lineup.

Post Positions:
1 Will True Up
2 Condiment
3 Zeewat
4 Wildcat Moon
5 Tree of Life
6 Butterfly Soul
7 My Best Bet

-Keelerman