Breeders' Cup Turf: The Americans may have the edge

In recent years, the Breeders' Cup Turf has been dominated by European shippers. Foreign-trained horses have won four of the last five runnings of the race, and swept the top two positions in both 2008 and 2010. Last year, it took a near world-record performance for American representatives Little Mike and Point of Entry to deny the Irish-trained St. Nicholas Abbey a victory in the Turf, thus ending the three-year European domination of the race.

As of a couple weeks ago, it seemed very possible that 2012 would wind up as an aberration. Potential European participation in the 2013 Breeders' Cup Turf appeared to be strong, with three-time European classic winner Camelot, Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-I) winner Flintshire, and even the powerful four-time Group I winner Novellist under consideration for the race.

Then things kind of fell apart. Camelot was injured during a morning gallop on October 14th and retired. Novellist missed the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) due to illness, then had his schedule changed to target the Japan Cup (Jpn-I) in late November. Flintshire was simply removed from consideration.

All of a sudden, the European force was decimated. Not so on the other side of the Atlantic. With Little Mike back in form after his victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. I), Point of Entry back in serious training following an early-summer injury, and a host of new American contenders in the mix, it seems likely that the Americans will have a very good chance at defeating the Europeans once again.

That said, what remains of the European brigade is a very potent pair of runners that could definitely make their presence felt under the right circumstances. The top contender would appear to be The Fugue, an Irish mare coming off of an excellent win in the Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes (Ire-I), in which she defeated the powerful three-time group I winner Al Kazeem in decisive fashion, with Irish Derby (Ire-I) winner Trading Leather finishing a well-beaten third. The Fugue already has experience in the Breeders' Cup, having finished third in last year's Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I) despite a very troubled trip.

The other European known to be under serious consideration is Grandeur, who shipped to the United States late last year for a three-race campaign that saw him win the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (gr. II) and Twilight Derby (gr. II), in addition to placing second in the Hollywood Derby (gr. I) with a tremendous late rally. His best performance this year was a runner-up effort in the Sky Bet York Stakes (Eng-II) in July, in which he defeated two-time Northern Dancer Stakes (gr. I) winner Wigmore Hall, as well as The Apache, who finished first in the Arlington Million Stakes (gr. I) this summer before being disqualified and placed second for interference. Interestingly, Grandeur placed seventh in that same race, beaten 4 1/2 lengths after getting agitated in the paddock.

It is possible that additional European runners could enter the fray; with Camelot out, trainer Aiden O'Brien could quite possibly come up with another contender from his deep arsenal of talented racehorses. But at the present time, it appears that the American hopefuls will outnumber their European counterparts on at least a 6-1 basis, and unless The Fugue or Grandeur can come up with their best efforts on November 2nd, I would be tempted -- for the first time in many years! -- to side with the Americans in this year's Breeders' Cup Turf.

-Keelerman

Solemia rallies to stunning upset in Arc de Triomphe

40-1 shot Solemia, a four-year-old filly that had never previously won a group I race, rallied past Orfevre in the final strides to win the $5,167,600 Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) at Longchamp on Sunday by a neck.

Ridden to victory by Olivier Peslier, Solemia was forwardly placed during the early stages of the twelve-furlong turf race, but several lengths behind pace-setting Ernest Hemingway. Fellow pacesetter Robin Hood was also right near the front early, as were Mikhail Glinka and Haya Landa. Camelot was tucked in toward the inside in fifth or sixth place, while Orfevre, St. Nicholas Abbey, and Great Heavens were toward the rear of the eighteen-horse field.

Entering the false straight, Ernest Hemingway was asked for everything he had, briefly opening up a substantial lead before retreating. Robin Hood also tired badly, leaving Haya Landa on the lead. Then Solemia made her challenge, moving up to take over the advantage.

Then things began to get interesting. On the far outside, Orfevre roared into the picture with a terrific turn-of-foot, bursting clear of Solemia and opening up a two-length lead. He appeared to be on his way to a runaway victory, but the four-year-old colt began to stall inside the final hundred yards. At the same time, Peslier guided Solemia to the outside, and the filly -- who had looked hopelessly beaten just momens before -- gathered herself and responded with a renewed rally that carried her past Orfevre to win the Arc in terrific fashion. The final time over the heavy going was 2:37.68 seconds.

Masterstroke, a three-year-old colt from the Godolphin barn, rallied mildly to secure third place, seven lengths behind Orfevre. Haya Landa stayed on well to finish a remarkable fourth at odds of 130-1, while Yellow and Green rounded out the top five. Great Heavens, Camelot, Sea Moon, Shareta, Bayrir, St. Nicholas Abbey, Meandre, Kesampour, Mikhail Glinka, Saonis, Ernest Hemingway, Aventino, and Robin Hood completed the order of finish.

The winner is a daughter of Poliglote out of Brooklyn's Dancer, by Shirley Heights. Bred and owned by Wertheimer and Frere, Solemia is trained by Carlos Laffon-Parias. Earlier in the day, they teamed up to win the group I Prix Marcel Boussac with Silasol, who was ridden by -- guess who? -- Olivier Peslier.

Solemia has now compiled a record of 5-3-2 from 13 starts. Her biggest previous victory came in the Prix de Pomone Haras d'Etreham (Fr-II) on August 11th. She entered the Arc off of a third-place effort in the prestigious Qatar Prix Vermeille (Fr-I) on September 16th, in which she was beaten by Arc also-ran Shareta.

-Keelerman

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Entries: Camelot looks to rebound

Camelot, winner of the English 2,000 Guineas (Eng-I), Epsom Derby (Eng-I), and Irish Derby (Ire-I) earlier this year, will look to rebound from a runner-up effort in the Ladbrokes St. Leger Stakes (Eng-I) last time out when he faces seventeen rivals in the 91st running of the $5.1 million Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) at Longchamp on Sunday.

Trained by Aidan O'Brien, the son of Montjeu will be making his debut against older horses in the Arc, but is expected to be favored due in part to the fact that three-time Arc winning jockey, Frankie Dettori, will be aboard.

The Japanese-bred Orfevre, who won the Japanese Triple Crown last year, is projected to have the best shot at pulling off an upset. He prepped for the Arc with a solid victory in the Prix Foy (Fr-II) on September 16th, and will be ridden by top French jockey Christophe Soumillon.

Other prominent entrants include St. Nicholas Abbey, winner of the 2011 Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I); Great Heavens, winner of the Irish Oaks (gr. I); Shareta, runner-up in the 2011 Arc and winner of the Qatar Prix Vermeille (Fr-I) most recently; Saonois, winner of the Prix du Jockey Club (Fr- I); and Sea Moon, runner-up in the 20121 Breeders' Cup Turf.

Post Positions:

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer
1	Haya Landa	Franck Blondel	Loic Audon
2	Saonois	Antoine Hamelin	Jean-Pierre Gauvin
3	Yellow and Green	Thierry Thulliez	Nicholas Clement
4	Ernest Hemingway	Colm O'Donoghue	Aidan O'Brien
5	Camelot	Frankie Dettori	Aidan O'Brien
6	Solemia	Olivier Peslier	Carlos Laffon-Parias
7	Great Heavens	William Buick	John Gosden
8	Aventino	Anthony Crastus	Yasutoshi Ikee
9	Mikhail Glinka	Mirco Demuro	Arslangirey Shavuyev
10	St. Nicholas Abbey	Joseph O'Brien	Aidan O'Brien
11	Shareta	Christophe Lemaire	Alain de Royer-Dupre
12	Robin Hood	James Heffernan	Aidan O'Brien
13	Meandre	Maxime Guyon	Andre Fabre
14	Bayrir	Gerald Mosse	Alain de Royer-Dupre
15	Kesampour	Gregory Benoist	Mikel Delzangles
16	Sea Moon	Ryan Moore	Sir Michael Stoute
17	Masterstroke	Mickael Barzalona	Andre Fabre
18	Orfevre	Christophe Soumillon	Yasutoshi Ikee

-Keelerman

ENCKE WINS THE LADBROKES ST. LEGER STAKES!

Encke posted a surprising upset in the $852,500 Ladbrokes St. Leger Stakes (Eng-I) on Saturday at Doncaster Racecourse, holding off the previously unbeaten Camelot to deny that one from completing a sweep of the English Triple Crown.

Ridden to victory by Mickael Barzalona, Encke was content to settle into fifth place early on in the 1 13/16ths miles race while Dartford and Thought Worthy set a good pace on the front end. Ursa Major and Thomas Chippendale were also up close to the pace, with Michelangelo back in sixth and just ahead of Camelot, who saved ground along the inside while leading only Guarantee and the slow-starting Main Sequence.

The positions remained relatively unchanged around the second bend and during the preliminary stages of the homestretch, but coming inside the final three-eighths of a mile or so, Encke shifted to the outside and made a bold run to seize command of the lead. In the meantime, Camelot was in behind horses searching for racing room, and had to briefly check off the heels of Dartford, who was tiring after his early exertions. In the vicinity of the three-sixteenths pole, Camelot found racing room and moved to the outside for a clear run at Encke, but Encke had already opened up an insurmountable four-length advantage. Camelot gave it his best try, rallying strongly inside the final eighth of a mile, but fell three-quarters of a length short at the finish. The final time was a good 3:03.81 seconds.

Michelangelo put in a decent run to finish third, three lengths behind Camelot, while Ursa Major rounded out the top four. Main Sequence, Thought Worthy, Guarantee, Thomas Chippendale, and Dartford completed the order of finish. The winner is owned by Godolphin Racing and trained by Mahmood Al Zarooni.

-Keelerman

Ladbrokes St. Leger Stakes Contender Profile: CAMELOT

Owner: Mr. D. Smith, Mrs. J. Magnier, and Mr. M. Tab
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien
Breeder: Sheikh Abdulla Bin Isa Al-Khalifa
Jockey: Joseph O'Brien

RACE RECORD

Age 3

1st Irish Derby (Ire-I)
1st Investec Derby (Eng-I)
1st QIPCO 2,000 Guineas Stakes (Eng-I)

Age 2

1st Racing Post Trophy (Eng-I)
1st Maiden Race

PEDIGREE

		Sadler's Wells
	Montjeu
		Floripedes
Camelot
		Kimgmambo
	Tarfah
		Fickle

Ladbrokes St. Leger Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the 1 mile, 6 furlong, 132-yard Ladbrokes St. Leger Stakes (Eng-I), to be run on Saturday at Doncaster Racecourse in England. The historic race is the third and final leg of the English Triple Crown, and this year's edition promises to be especially exciting thanks to the presence of the undefeated Camelot, who is bidding to become the first English Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970.

His primary opposition is expected to come from Thought Worthy and Main Sequence, the 1-2 finishers in the Neptune Investment Great Voltigeur Stakes (Eng-II) at York last month. Trainer John Gosden, who has won three of the last five renewals of the race, trains Thought Worthy, as well as Michelangelo and Dartford.

PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer
1	Camelot	Joseph O'Brien	Aidan O'Brien
2	Dartford	R. Havlin	John Gosden
3	Encke	M. Barzalona	M. Al Zarooni
4	Guarantee	P. Makin	W. Haggas
5	Main Sequence	T. Durcan	D. Lanigan
6	Michelangelo	Frankie Dettori	John Gosden
7	Thomas Chippendale	Tom Queally	Henry Cecil
8	Thought Worthy	William Buick	John Gosden
9	Ursa Major	John Murtagh	T. Carmody

-Keelerman

2012 Kentucky Derby Update #2

Jockey Julien Leparoux and trainer Kenny McPeek took the opener with the even-money favorite Atigun, who -- despite stumbling a bit at the start -- rallied from last with a four-wide bid to win the 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race by a length over Politicallycorrect, stopping the clock in 1:43.05. Looking strictly at the results of this race, I would say that there is an outside bias -- in a six-horse field, the two horses that raced along the rail finished fifth and sixth -- but it's really too early to say for sure. After all, the two rail-runners were 6-1 and 16-1. Maybe they were just beaten because they weren't good enough.

The next race on the card is a six-furlong maiden special weight for three-year-olds and up. Ten were entered, but three scratches have reduced the field to only seven runners. Vasten, who finished second last time out in a similar race at Keeneland, looks like a pretty solid favorite. But the early wagering has the first-time starter Master Cip as the 4-5 favorite, down from 8-1 on the morning line.

Jockey Julien Leparoux -- who won the opener, as mentioned above -- will be aboard Big Ring, who finished second last time out in a maiden special weight at Turfway Park.

Also note that the main track has been upgraded to "muddy".

For those who are interested in European racing, favored Camelot got up in the final strides to win the English 2,000 Guineas by a neck over French Fifteen. Trained by Aiden O'Brien and ridden by Joseph O'Brien, I would expect that he will head to the Epsom Derby in June as one of the favorites.

-Keelerman