Breeders' Cup Saturday 2013 Selections

Five Breeders' Cup races down, and nine to go! Can Wise Dan repeat in the Breeders' Cup Mile? Can Game On Dude win the Classic in his third attempt? Can She's a Tiger give Gary Stevens the second Breeders' Cup victory of his comeback? These questions and more will be answered on the second day of Breeders' Cup 2013. Let's make some selections!

Juvenile Fillies: You can make a solid case that Sweet Reason was the best filly in the Frizette, given that she was beaten little more than a length after a poor start, but after her unusual training pattern leading into this race, I'm leaning toward Frizette winner Artemis Agrotera. But at the same time, the sheer brilliance of She's a Tiger worries me, and it's possible that she could end the race on the far turn. Concave could be an interesting longshot, even though she's never run farther than seven furlongs, as her pedigree suggests that two-turns in a possibility, and she was rallying pretty well at the end of the Del Mar Debutante.SELECTIONS: She's a Tiger, Artemis Agrotera, Concave, Sweet Reason

Filly and Mare Turf: The European invaders Dank and Romantica look like solid favorites, but they've drawn the two innermost post positions, and I am a bit worried about traffic issues. That's why I am leaning toward Laughing, who should be able to accelerate her final quarter mile in at least :22.50 seconds over the rock-hard Santa Anita turf course. The question is, can anyone else run that last quarter faster? Tiz Flirtatious and Marketing Mix, the 1-2 finishers in the Rodeo Drive Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita, should also be in the mix.
SELECTIONS: Laughing, Dank, Romantica, Marketing Mix

Filly and Mare Sprint: I believe that the surface and distance of this race are just what the doctor ordered for Groupie Doll, and I view her as a very, very solid favorite under these circumstances. Dance to Bristol and Dance Card both intrigue me off of their performances in the Gallant Bloom, but perhaps even more interesting is Summer Applause, who shortens up in distance off of twelve consecutive route races. This reminds me quite a bit of Switch, who placed in three consecutive editions of the Filly and Mare Sprint while twice prepping in route races. I also like Ismene, who was quite impressive on the dirt here at Santa Anita two years ago. She looks like the quickest filly over the first quarter mile, and she has the advantage of starting outside fellow front-runner Teddy's Promise.
SELECTIONS: Groupie Doll, Ismene, Summer Applause, Dance to Bristol

Turf Sprint: In my opinion, experience on the downhill turf course is a must, but that doesn't narrow down the field a whole lot, does it? :) Last year's 1-2-3 finishers Mizdirection, Unbridled's Note, and Reneesgotzip all look solid here once again, as do Eddie D Stakes 1-2 finishers, Chips All In and Boat Trip, but I very intrigued Rock Me Baby, who was beaten just 2 1/2 lengths when seventh in the Eddie D. He looked ready to make a bit of a run in the stretch, but got boxed in and lacked room throughout the final 150 yards or so. Overall, he has decent form on the downhill turf, and will be ridden by Joe Talamo, who won this race in 2009 aboard California Flag.
SELECTIONS: Rock Me Baby, Mizdirection, Boat Trip, Unbridled's Note

Juvenile: I was very confident in the chances of Strong Mandate up until the post position draw, but starting from gate fourteen is by no means appealing. Havana's post draw doesn't bother me nearly as much, as I feel he has the speed to clear most of the field, but in my opinion, his real problem is Diamond Bachelor. This colt is headstrong, very fast, and almost out-of-control at times -- remember, he ran the opening quarter mile of the one-mile Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes in :21.97 seconds. I expect him to go to the lead on Saturday, with Havana chasing him through what may very well be a ridiculous pace. Determining who will take advantage of it is not easy, but perhaps Dance With Fate might have a shot if he takes back further than he did in the FrontRunner Stakes? Tap It Rich took advantage of a fast pace in his maiden win, perhaps he can do so again? We Miss Artie's Beyer speed figures may not be flashy, but he did finish up nicely in the Breeders' Futurity, and has a lot of experience training on dirt. Really, this race looks completely wide-open, and I can't really be confident in any selection. Havana comes into this race is much the same way that 2010 Juvenile champion Uncle Mo did, right down the almost identical Beyers. Perhaps he is just the best horse in this race. Update from Saturday: After what appeared to be a severe speed bias presented itself during Friday's Breeders' Cup card, I am beginning to like the chances of Diamond Bachelor and Havana more and more with each passing hour. Perhaps the bias can carry them 1-2 around the track . . .
SELECTIONS: Diamond Bachelor, Havana, Strong Mandate, Dance With Fate

Turf: The Fugue should have won the Filly and Mare Turf last year, and I believe she is quite a bit better this year than last, which makes her a solid favorite to win this race. The rest of the contenders look pretty evenly matched, with seemingly little separating Little Mike, Big Blue Kitten, and Real Solution. Indy Point's victory in the John Henry Turf Championship was among the most visually impressive performances I have seen all year, and the final time was spectacular. With that in mind, I'll take him as my second choice behind The Fugue, with utmost respect to the Big Blue Kitten, Real Solution, and Little Mike.
SELECTIONS: The Fugue, Indy Point, Real Solution

Sprint: Private Zone was as game as could be in winning the Vosburgh Invitational, but he may have been aided by the track, and he wasn't challenged during the early stages of the race. I was leaning toward Justin Phillip to turn the tables on Saturday, but then he had to go and draw the rail. Fast Bullet can be brilliant at times, but exactly the opposite at others. If you believe there was a speed bias at Santa Anita during last year's Breeders' Cup, it's worth noting that Fast Bullet was the only speed horse that failed to take advantage of it. So I guess my selection is Gentlemen's Bet, who I believe had legitimate excuses in his last two starts. If he can work out a stalking trip from gate three -- which could be challenging, I admit -- I believe he has what it takes to find the winner's circle at a decent price. Update from Saturday: Once again, the presence of the speed bias has caused me to re-think my selections. All of a sudden, Private Zone's chances are looking much, much better than before. However, I'll take a wild chance with Sum of the Parts, who finished fourth in last year's Breeders' Cup Sprint in a strong front-running performance.
SELECTIONS: Sum of the Parts, Private Zone, Gentlemen's Bet, Justin Phillip

Mile: After drawing post eight, Wise Dan looks almost unbeatable in this race. I envision him stalking Obviously and Silver Max in the early stages, taking over in the stretch, and breaking his own track record in the process. :) I respect the chances of Silver Max, but I don't believe he will be able to handle the pace pressure of Obviously, who I feel is ready to rebound in a big way on Saturday. Olympic Glory has great form in Europe, but I seem to remember hearing a mention of him blowing a turn in a European race this year . . . probably not a good sign, and after Excelebration's disappointment last year off a two-week rest, I guess I can't see Olympic Glory winning this race. As in interesting longshot, I like Bright Thought, who is unbeaten and virtually untested on the Santa Anita turf. Having no races since March is a concern, but perhaps he can get a piece of it from mid-pack.
SELECTIONS: Wise Dan, Obviously, Bright Though, No Jet Lag

Classic: I do believe that Game On Dude is the best he's ever been coming into this race, and assuming he gets off to a good start, I believe he can take this field all the way on the front end, no matter how fast the pace. Mucho Macho Man and Palace Malice look like the best of the mid-pack runners, and I can envision either one of them getting up to win under the right circumstances. The only other horse I really like is Paynter, who ran such an odd race in the Awesome Again Stakes. He seems to be training as well as ever, and perhaps he can end his fairytale comeback with a victory in the Classic.
SELECTIONS: Game On Dude, Mucho Macho Man, Palace Malice, Paynter

-Keelerman

2013 Breeders' Cup Turf Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the $3,000,000 Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), to be run on November 2nd at Santa Anita Park:

1 Vagabound Shoes/Victor Espinoza

2 Teaks North/Martin Garcia

3 Twilight Eclipse/Julien Leparoux

4 Little Mike/Mike Smith

5 Skyring/Luis Saez

6 Tale of a Champion/Joe Talamo

7 The Fugue/William Buick

8 Point of Entry/John Velazquez

9 Indy Point/Gary Stevens

10 Big Blue Kitten/Joe Bravo

11 Magician/Ryan Moore

12 Real Solution/Javier Castellano

-Keelerman

2013 Breeders' Cup Turf Pre-Entries

Here are the pre-entries for the $3,000,000 Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), to be run on November 2nd at Santa Anita Park:

Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I)
Distance: 1 1/2 miles on turf
Post Time: 3:22 PM PDT

Big Blue Kitten
Grandeur
Indy Point
Little Mike
Magician
Point of Entry
Real Solution
Skyring
Tale of a Champion
Teaks North
The Fugue
Twilight Eclipse
Vagabond Shoes

Notes:
Magician has second preference in the Breeders' Cup Mile.
The Fugue has second preference in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

2013 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf Pre-Entries

Here are the pre-entries for the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I), to be run on November 2nd at Santa Anita Park:

Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I)
Distance: 1 1/4 miles on turf
Post Time: 12:43 PM PDT

Alterite
Dank
Emollient
Kitten's Dumplings
Lady of Shamrock
Laughing
Marketing Mix
Qushchi
Romantica
The Fugue
Tiz Flirtatious
Vionnet

Notes:
The Fugue has first preference in the Breeders' Cup Turf.

Breeders' Cup Turf: The Americans may have the edge

In recent years, the Breeders' Cup Turf has been dominated by European shippers. Foreign-trained horses have won four of the last five runnings of the race, and swept the top two positions in both 2008 and 2010. Last year, it took a near world-record performance for American representatives Little Mike and Point of Entry to deny the Irish-trained St. Nicholas Abbey a victory in the Turf, thus ending the three-year European domination of the race.

As of a couple weeks ago, it seemed very possible that 2012 would wind up as an aberration. Potential European participation in the 2013 Breeders' Cup Turf appeared to be strong, with three-time European classic winner Camelot, Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-I) winner Flintshire, and even the powerful four-time Group I winner Novellist under consideration for the race.

Then things kind of fell apart. Camelot was injured during a morning gallop on October 14th and retired. Novellist missed the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) due to illness, then had his schedule changed to target the Japan Cup (Jpn-I) in late November. Flintshire was simply removed from consideration.

All of a sudden, the European force was decimated. Not so on the other side of the Atlantic. With Little Mike back in form after his victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. I), Point of Entry back in serious training following an early-summer injury, and a host of new American contenders in the mix, it seems likely that the Americans will have a very good chance at defeating the Europeans once again.

That said, what remains of the European brigade is a very potent pair of runners that could definitely make their presence felt under the right circumstances. The top contender would appear to be The Fugue, an Irish mare coming off of an excellent win in the Red Mills Irish Champion Stakes (Ire-I), in which she defeated the powerful three-time group I winner Al Kazeem in decisive fashion, with Irish Derby (Ire-I) winner Trading Leather finishing a well-beaten third. The Fugue already has experience in the Breeders' Cup, having finished third in last year's Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I) despite a very troubled trip.

The other European known to be under serious consideration is Grandeur, who shipped to the United States late last year for a three-race campaign that saw him win the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (gr. II) and Twilight Derby (gr. II), in addition to placing second in the Hollywood Derby (gr. I) with a tremendous late rally. His best performance this year was a runner-up effort in the Sky Bet York Stakes (Eng-II) in July, in which he defeated two-time Northern Dancer Stakes (gr. I) winner Wigmore Hall, as well as The Apache, who finished first in the Arlington Million Stakes (gr. I) this summer before being disqualified and placed second for interference. Interestingly, Grandeur placed seventh in that same race, beaten 4 1/2 lengths after getting agitated in the paddock.

It is possible that additional European runners could enter the fray; with Camelot out, trainer Aiden O'Brien could quite possibly come up with another contender from his deep arsenal of talented racehorses. But at the present time, it appears that the American hopefuls will outnumber their European counterparts on at least a 6-1 basis, and unless The Fugue or Grandeur can come up with their best efforts on November 2nd, I would be tempted -- for the first time in many years! -- to side with the Americans in this year's Breeders' Cup Turf.

-Keelerman

Zagora bursts clear in Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

9-1 shot Zagora kept the streak of Breeders' Cup upsets alive on Friday afternoon when she out-kicked Marketing Mix in the final furlong of the $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I) to win by about three-quarters of a length.

Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Zagora secured a perfect position early on, down along the rail in the fourth position as Star Billing and Marketing Mix led the way through fractions of :24.70 and :48.72. In Lingerie was poised three-wide on the outside in third, while Stormy Lucy, The Fugue, Up, and Nahrain were in mid-pack. I'm A Dreamer, Ridasiyna, and Lady of Shamrock were the early trailers.

The positions remained relatively unchanged down the backstretch, but rounding the final turn, Marketing Mix moved up to take the lead from Star Billing and appeared to be on her way to victory. The Fugue was full of run, but lacked racing room and had no time to extract herself.

But then, Zagora dived to the outside and unleashed a powerful stretch kick. With swift acceleration, she surpassed Marketing Mix and drove clear for victory. The final time for ten furlongs was 1:59.70.

The Fugue finished third without ever getting a clear path, while Ridasiyna rallied well late to be fourth.

Breeders' Cup Friday 2012

1:19 Central Time: Happy Breeders' Cup Friday 2012, everyone! We've got six terrific Breeders' Cup races to be run later this afternoon, including the $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), which feature seven grade I winners.

It could not be a more beautiful day at Santa Anita Park. Although it was a bit hazy this morning, it has cleared up well and the sun is out. There have been five scratches from Breeders' Cup races -- Super Ninety Nine from the Juvenile Sprint, Worth Repeating from the Marathon, Sustained and Moulin de Mougin (the latter an also-eligible) from the Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Nereid from the Filly and Mare Turf.

The first race of the day, a nine-furlong allowance race on the turf, has just been run. The winner was the Carla Gaines-trained Big Bane Theory, a three-year-old colt that rallied from sixth with an explosive turn-of-foot to win going away in a sharp 1:47.08. Clearly, the turf is as quick as it could possibly be.

The winning rider was Joe Talamo, who is the leading rider of the meet by a substantial margin. Later today, he will be aboard Jaycito in the Marathon, Flashy Ways in the Juvenile Fillies Turf, and Include Me Out in the Ladies' Classic.

1:56 CT: Joe Talamo is having a very good day.

Make that a very good day.

The jockey just swept the early double when he guided Big Tiz to a determined victory in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race on the main track. Big Tiz did not get an easy trip at all, dueling in between D'princess and Magical Band through blazing fractions of :21.88 and :44.34 before opening up in the stretch and holding off a late run from Miss Oops to win by about a half-length in 1:17.12. Mark Glatt trains the four-year-old daughter of Tiznow, who ran second in the 2010 Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I).

Hard to draw conclusions on the possibility of a track bias based off of just one race, but it is worth noting that the top three finishers all showed speed, and to be perfectly honest, I would have expected to see Big Tiz tire just a bit more than she did after such a quick pace . . .

Next race on the card is a seven-furlong main track allowance race for three-year-olds and upward. Macho Dorado has opened as the 5-2 favorite. Joe Talamo does not have a mount.

2:28 CT: Yes, I would say the track is speed-favoring.

The third race of the day is in the history books, and the winner was 7-1 shot Basmati, with Mario Gutierrez aboard for trainer Doug O'Neill and owner Paul Reddam. The three-year-old colt received a trip similar to the one Big Tiz got one race earlier, dueling with Macho Dorado and Got Even through blazing fractions of :22.08 and :44.08 before hanging on gamely to win the seven-furlong allowance in a quick 1:22.75.

Macho Dorado finished about three-quarters of a length back in second, followed along the rail by Got Even. Hmm . . .

3:07 CT: South Floyd is a late scratch from the Juvenile Sprint. Merit Man is now the favorite at 1-2, and with no other speed horses left in this race, he looks like a very deserving favorite.

3:38 CT: Thanks to a pair of scratches, this year's Juvenile Sprint went off with the smallest field (5 horses) in Breeders' Cup history, so it seemed fitting that a huge longshot should win. Hightail, who had not won a single race from eight previous starts, rallied along the fence to upset heavily favored Merit Man by a nose at odds of 15-1. The D. Wayne Lukas-trainee was not a complete surprise -- he had run well in stakes company -- but it's hard to believe that the colt managed to break his maiden in a $500,000 stakes. I'm pretty certain that's some sort of a record.

I was surprised by Merit Man's defeat, not just because he towered over the field in terms of credentials and speed figures, but because of the slow pace. The colt was able to get away with fractions of :22.41 and :45.94 -- compared to :22.08 and :44.08 in a seven-furlong allowance one race earlier -- yet still allowed Hightail to come and get him in the stretch.

Next up is the Marathon.

4:39 CT: Calidoscopio's victory in the Marathon will be remembered by I as one of the most spectacular moments in Breeders' Cup history.

Dead last early on -- some twenty lengths off the pace -- it looked as though the nine-year-old Argentinean-bred shipper was not going to fire. But turning on to the backstretch, he began to pick off tiring horses with sudden acceleration. He sustained this incredible move throughout the final turn, splitting horses gamely before shifting to the outside for racing room. And then -- just when he should have been tiring from his big run -- he simply exploded, swallowing up rivals left and right before romping to a spectacular victory.

What a performance.

Now, having watched the first two Breeders' Cup races, I no longer think that there is a strong speed bias. There might be a minor one, but if it were overwhelming, Merit Man would have romped in the Juvenile Sprint -- and Calidoscopio would not have rallied from last like he did.

Next up is the Juvenile Fillies Turf, where Sky Lantern is currently the 5-2 favorite over 3-1 shot Spring Venture. Summer of Fun at 40-1 looks intriguing.

5:08 CT: Three Breeders' Cup races, three double-digit upsets. Following the 15-1 and 17-1 victories by Hightail and Calidoscopio, French raider Flotilla showcased a brilliant turn-of-foot in the final eighth of a mile to win the $1 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) at odds of 11-1.

A couple of horses affected by traffic were Waterway Run, who lacked racing room throughout the stretch, and Infanta Branca, who had to check along the rail while in the process of making a run.

The Juvenile Fillies is up next . . .

5:45 CT: As I mentioned on my selections post this morning, making the decision between Executiveprivilege and Beholder in the Juvenile Fillies is not easy. Originally, I had settled on Executiveprivilege, but after watching the first four dirt races on the card, I decided that just enough of a speed bias was evident to warrant switching to Beholder. Fortunately, I made the right decision, as Beholder held off Executiveprivilege's late run to win by about 1 1/4 lengths.

Executiveprivilege looked like a winner at the top of the stretch, but drifted out badly under pressure in the final furlong. Hard to say if it cost her the race, but it is worth noting that she has done that before -- in the Del Mar Debutante, when she closed fast despite drifting to nab Beholder right at the wire.

6:30 CT: The Fugue had a very difficult trip, and never got a clear run in the stretch, but let's give credit to Zagora. Earlier this summer, many were writing her off as past-her-prime, but the Chad Brown-trainee rallied strongly in the final furlong of the Filly and Mare Turf to win in decisive fashion over a very game Marketing Mix.

Next up is the Ladies' Classic, where seven grade I winners and an eight-time stakes winner will square off over nine furlongs. I expect to see Royal Delta near the front early on, challenging Questing and/or Awesome Feather for the early lead -- much like she did against It's Tricky in the Beldame.

Whatever happens, it should be a terrific race.

8:56 CT: When I said I expected Royal Delta to show speed, I meant the pace-pressing kind of speed that she showed in the Beldame -- not the sprinter-like speed that she showcased in winning the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic for the second straight year.

The complexion of the race changed drastically when Questing broke poorly and failed to get involved, trailing the field under the wire for the first time before being eased around the first turn. Apparently, she was uninjured -- she simply didn't feel like running.

But with the expected leader out of the race, jockey Mike Smith seized the initiative aboard Royal Delta and took command of the lead, setting blazing fractions of ::45.81 and 1:09.80. My Miss Aurelia and Include Me Out both loomed menacingly around the turn, but in the final furlong, Royal Delta simply had too much left, and held on for a classy 1 1/2 length victory.

All told, it was another wonderful day of racing. Tomorrow's action is even better, with nine Breeders' Cup races on the schedule, including the much-anticipated Breeders' Cup Classic. Enjoy the racing!

-Keelerman

Breeders' Cup Friday 2012 Selections

It's hard to believe that the Breeders' Cup is finally here. It always seems as though it kind of sneaks up on you arrives before you've even finalized your selections . . .

That was the case this year as well -- when it comes to the Breeders' Cup, I'm pretty much still making picks just minutes before post time for a given race -- but here are my selections for Friday's races, which will be run later this afternoon. For added fun, J.R.'s selections will accompany mine and we can see who does better. Enjoy!

Juvenile Sprint

Keelerman: 1. Super Ninety Nine 2. Merit Man 3. Sweet Shirley Mae

J.R.: 1. Merit Man 2. Sweet Shirley Mae 3. Super Ninety Nine

Trained Bob Baffert won this race last year with the speedy Secret Circle, and now sends out the intriguing Super Ninety Nine. The son of Pulpit doesn't really have a early-maturing speed pedigree, but looked great breaking his maiden going seven furlongs by 1 1/4 lengths. Cutting back in distance a bit, expect him to settle just off the pace early on before finishing up well in the homestretch. Merit Man showed fine form breaking his maiden first time out and backed that up with a dominating 5 1/2-length victory in the Tim Conway Stakes. He does hold a tactical advantage over Super Ninety Nine in terms of early speed, but will surely face early pace pressure from South Floyd and possibly Hazardous, which could make things slightly difficult for him. For third, I like the Wesley Ward filly Sweet Shirley Mae, who rallied from well back to get second in the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. The daughter of Broken Vow has also show a great deal of early speed, and should be coming late for a major piece of the purse.
Update -- with Super Ninety Nine having scratched from the race, my new selection is Merit Man.

Marathon (gr. III)

Keelerman: 1. Calidoscopio 2. Juniper Pass 3. Eldaafer

J.R.: 1. Jaycito 2. Eldaafer 3. Grassy

To be perfectly honest, there are at least a half-dozen horses that I could have picked to win and been confident in my chances. Fame and Glory has been a top-notch horse in Europe for years, but hasn't been in great form recently and will have to prove he can handle the dirt. Atigun has established himself as a good three-year-old stayer by finishing third in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and fourth in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I), but will have to prove himself against older horses. Commander has a great deal of speed and could potentially steal the race in gate-to-wire fashion if the pace is slow enough. Eldaafer won this race in 2010 and seems to be coming into this race in terrific form. Grassy is a nice graded stakes competitor on grass that will be trying dirt for the first time. Jaycito hails from the barn of Bob Baffert and seems to be rounding back into form following a so-so summer campaign. Juniper Pass won the San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap (gr. II) at this obscure fourteen-furlong distance in 2011 and is proven over the Santa Anita main track. Not Abroad looked terrific winning the Maryland Millions Classic and has run well at twelve furlongs, but the distance may be a bit far for him. But the horse I find most intriguing is Calidoscopio, a nine-year-old group I winner that most recently won the group II General Belgrano in Argentina. Trained by Guillermo Frenkel, the veteran of thirty-nine starts has been training quite well at Santa Anita -- without a saddle on most occasions -- and while South American form can be questionable in America, there's no doubt that this guy can run all day, and traversing a mile and three-quarters, that should be a huge asset in his favor.

Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I)

Keelerman: 1. Spring Venture 2. Sky Lantern 3. Oscar Party

J.R.: 1. Sky Lantern 2. Flashy Ways 3. Spring Venture

This is one of the deepest races of the entire Breeders' Cup, but in the end, I believe there are a couple of standouts. The filly I am most confident in is Spring Venture, who absolutely blew the doors off her rivals in the Natalma Stakes (gr. II) two starts back and is unchallenged in three starts. Her turn-of-foot is simply breathtaking, and while the competition will be tougher today, I feel she's up to the challenge. Remember, Natalma runner-up Spring in the Air came back to win the Darly Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) at Keeneland. Sky Lantern, shipping from Europe for trainer Richard Hannon, has never finished worse than second in five starts and looked terrific winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes (gr. I) last time out. Also, three starts back, she finished a good second to Europe's top two-year-old filly Certify in a group III at Newmarket, further establishing her credentials. The only reason I'm not picking her on top is because I just like Spring Venture's chances slightly better. For third place, Flashy Ways, Flotilla, Watsdachances, and Waterway Run are obvious possibilities, but I think Oscar Party can rally for a piece. Beaten a neck in the Jessmine Stakes (gr. III) after a tough trip, she certainly appears eligible to improve on that effort and is trained by Wayne Catalano, who won this race last year with Stephanie's Kitten. Also, you might want to take a look at 30-1 shot Nancy O, who finished a troubed third in the Natalma before being distanced in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I) over dirt.

Juvenile Fillies (gr. I)

Keelerman: 1. Executiveprivilege 2. Beholder 3. Spring in the Air

J.R.: 1. Kauai Katie 2. Beholder 3. Dreaming of Julia

To me, this is a rather tricky race to decipher. It's hard not to like the chances of Dreaming of Julia and Kauai Katie, but both face the difficult task of shipping from the East coast to win a Breeders' Cup Juvenile race -- a feat that can be quite difficult. Of the pair, I actually prefer Kauai Katie, despite her lesser credentials, as I feel her victory in the Matron Stakes (gr. II) over a track somewhat unkind to speed was exceptional. But for the top spots, I like Beholder and Executiveprivilege -- but in which order is difficult to say. Executiveprivilege has terrific credentials, being unbeaten in five starts, but the Bob Baffert-trainee took advantage of a slow pace and a speed-favoring track to romp in the Chandelier Stakes (gr. I), and really doesn't have an edge over he rivals in terms of Beyer speed figures. Beholder was beaten a nose by Executiveprivilege in the seven-furlong Del Mar Debutante (gr. I), and returned to win a six-furlong allowance race by eleven lengths with a Beyer of 108, but is unproven at this distance and will be breaking from post one. My final selection may be influenced by how the track is playing, but I'm going to side with Executiveprivilege for the time being.

Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I)

Keelerman: 1. The Fugue 2. Marketing Mix 3. Ridasiyna

J.R.: 1. Marketing Mix 2. Lady of Shamrock 3. The Fugue

This race has come up very deep, but I think The Fugue is close to being a standout. The John Gosden-trained three-year-old filly romped in the Nassau Stakes (Eng-I) two starts back under conditions similar to these, and was beaten just a beck last time out by the talented Shareta in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks (Eng-I). A versatile filly, she should be able to adapt to just about any given pace scenario and finish up with a powerful three-eighths of a mile run. Marketing Mix is the top North American hopeful, as the Canadian-bred mare is coming off of a powerful victory in the Rodeo Drive Stakes (gr. I) here at Santa Anita, but received a pretty much perfect setup that day and is now facing much tougher. Ridasiyna has won four of her five starts, including the Prix de l'Opera (Fr-I) last time out, but one could argue that she is a bit better over softer ground. In Lingerie has never run on turf before, but the daughter of Empire Maker is 3-for-3 on synthetic tracks, which includes a strong victory in the Spinster Stakes (gr. I) last time out. If she can transfer her form to turf, she'll most likely get first run at the leaders, and from there, they'll have to catch her to beat her. Nahrain, I'm A Dreamer, and Lady of Shamrock certainly warrant respect too, as both have one grade I races this year, but you can't pick them all!

Ladies' Classic (gr. I)

Keelerman: 1. Royal Delta 2. Awesome Feather 3. Questing

J.R.: 1. Awesome Feather 2. Royal Delta 3. Love and Pride

Of all the races on either day of the Breeders' Cup, this is the one I am looking forward to most. The deep eight-horse field contains three Eclipse champions, seven grade I winners, and one eight-time stakes winner. But as strong as this field is, I can't really see past picking Royal Delta. Winner of this race last year, the Bill Mott-trained filly is coming off of a terrific victory in the Beldame Invitational Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park, in which she pressured three-time grade I winner It's Tricky through quick fractions before pulling away powerfully in the homestretch. Her subsequent training has been excellent, and I think she's sitting on another huge effort. Awesome Feather looked terrific in her most recent start, an 11 1/4 length victory in the Nasty Storm Stakes at Belmont Park, and should get a terrific trip just off the leaders. The only question is how she'll handle the rise is class while making only her second start since January. Questing won a pair of grade Is this summer in terrific fashion, including the ten-furlong Alabama Stakes, and had legitimate excuses for her head defeat in the Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) last time out. If the track is kind to speed -- which it usually is -- the daughter of Questing could take this field a long way on the front end. Love and Pride is a bit overlooked, but the two-time grade I winner has been at Santa Anita for weeks preparing for this race and has been training very well. Expect to see her Grace Hall fits with these on her best day, but is a bit inconsistent and had her travel schedule goofed up by Hurricane Sandy. Include Me Out is a two-time grade I winner and has run quite well here at Santa Anita, but a mile and a sixteenth may be her best distance, and this is a really deep field. My Miss Aurelia is unbeaten in six starts, including the Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) last time out over Questing, but faces a much tougher pace scenario today and will have to receive some racing luck to overcome breaking from post two. Class Included has never finished worse than second in sixteen starts, and turned in a good workout last week, but is taking a huge step up in class and may be in a bit deep.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS -- October 18th, 2012

CLASSIC

1 Game On Dude
2 Ron the Greek
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Flat Out
5 Brilliant Speed

TURF

1 St. Nicholas Abbey
2 Point of Entry
3 Trailblazer
4 Shareta
5 Sea Moon

MILE

1 Wise Dan
2 Moonlight Cloud
3 Excelebration
4 Obviously
5 Mr. Commons

SPRINT

1 Amazombie
2 Coil
3 Capital Account
4 Emcee
5 The Lumber Guy

LADIES' CLASSIC

1 Royal Delta
2 Awesome Feather
3 Questing
4 My Miss Aurelia
5 Love and Pride

FILLY AND MARE TURF

1 The Fugue
2 Marketing Mix
3 Nahrain
4 Zagora
5 Lady of Shamrock

DIRT MILE

1 Shackleford
2 Emcee
3 Jersey Town
4 Nonios
5 Fed Biz

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

1 Groupie Doll
2 It's Tricky
3 Musical Romance
4 Turbulent Descent
5 Contested

TURF SPRINT

1 California Flag
2 Unbridled's Note
3 Next Question
4 Bridgetown
5 Starspangledbanner

MARATHON

1 Worth Repeating
2 Eldaafer
3 Atigun
3 Commander
4 Calidoscopio

JUVENILE

1 Power Broker
2 Shanghai Bobby
3 Capo Bastone
4 Know More
5 Title Contender

JUVENILE TURF

1 Noble Tune
2 Balance the Books
3 Dundonnell
4 Gervinho
5 Fantastic Moon

JUVENILE FILLIES

1 Executiveprivilege
2 Scarlet Strike
3 Dreaming of Julia
4 Beholder
5 My Happy Face

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

1 Spring Venture
2 Sky Lantern
3 Watsdachances
4 Waterway Run
5 Flashy Ways

JUVENILE SPRINT

1 Beholder
2 Merit Man
3 Kauai Katie
4 Carried Interest
5 Darwin

-Keelerman