(Sorry I didn't get this interview posted before the Kentucky Oaks, I got delayed. But better late than never!)
"Hey, can you smell the roses?"
"Vaguely . . . but the smell of lilies is stronger."
Of course, this is just a generic conversation, but it is true. The Run for the Lilies, also known as the Kentucky Oaks, is being run tomorrow. I will be discussing it very thoroughly later today, but for now, I thought I would get some final opinions from Dan J, Rosie Sedgwick, and our new follower Ellen F on the Kentucky Oaks, the Kentucky Derby, the La Troienne, the American Turf Stakes, and a few other little things. So let's get started!
(The following are my questions, followed by Dan, Rosie, and Ellen’s answers.)
Q: Welcome back Dan, Rosie, and Ellen! I've got a lot of questions for you to answer, but to start, how do you feel overall about the Kentucky Derby and Oaks?
DJ: I'm excited. These should be an excellent set of races.
RS: There are so many truly wonderful horses that are currently scheduled to run; such as Stately Victor, Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado, and Mission Impazible---and that's to name only a few! As for the Kentucky Oaks, my personal favorite is Amen Hallelujah, followed closely by Blind Luck and Champagne d'Oro. These are some beautiful fillies!
EF: I'm intensely interested. For the Oaks, I suppose I'll go along with the favorite, Blind Luck. To tell you the truth, I haven't been following the Oaks that thoroughly, I'm more of a Derby fan myself. . . as for the Derby, I can't wait to see how the post positions are going to affect the field! And I hope Todd Pletcher finally gets a Derby winner.
Q: Now let's take a look at the field for the Oaks. A full field of fourteen has been entered, and Blind Luck is the very heavy favorite. Do you think that she will be upset?
DJ: No, I think she can do it. The Oaks seems to favor favorites. With Devil May Care headed for the Derby, Blind Luck's job just got that much easier.
RS: As Amen Hallelujah is my own favorite, I think she might be. Blind Luck is totally fabulous, but Amen Hallelujah may be able to pull off an upset. Blind Luck, however (from Post 5) has a better post position, so it's going to be interesting to see how this race comes out.
EF: It's highly possible, I mean, just because she's the favorite doesn't mean she's a sure thing. But I feel pretty confident in her.
Q: Who do you think has the best chance at upsetting her?
DJ: Hmmm...I don't think she will be. But if I must pick, let's go with Calvin Borel and take Tidal Pool.
RS: Amen Hallelujah! :)
EF: Well, Champagne d'Oro has an incredible sister out there. . . and Tidal Pool definitely deserves recognition. . .
Q: Do you think that we will see another Oaks/Derby jockey double, where the same jockey wins both races?
DJ: Well, that would be interesting (especially if it were Tidal Pool/Super Saver!) but I doubt it, it seems unlikely.
RS: Possibly, due to the fact that both Tidal Pool (in the Kentucky Oaks) and Super Saver (in the Kentucky Derby) are ridden by Calvin Borel, my thoughts are that there is a chance that this will happen.
EF: Well, it's a possibility. Anything can happen in the Two Kentuckies (as has been proven over and over again), so I'm not going to give a steadfast opinion either way. It might happen, but then again it might not. Does that make me wishy-washy? ;- )
Q: On the far outside is the 30-1 shot Joanie's Catch. She isn't very well liked, but somehow manages to keep hitting the board against pretty good competition. What do you think of her?
DJ: I like horses who just keep getting better, slowly, behind the radar, and then break out. Perhaps the Oaks will be her day.
RS: I think that she is a fairly strong horse, and therefore she might just have a shot at doing well.
EF: Consistency is good, but I like to see horses win consistently. 30-1 odds don't exactly boost my confidence in her. . . her record is admirable, and if she gets a miracle trip I think she could make it.
Q: In gate eight is the 8-1 co-second choice Tidal Pool. She finished second to Blind Luck in the Fantasy Stakes. She also has Calvin Borel in the saddle. What do you think of her chances?
DJ: I like her, but not as much as Blind Luck.
RS: Tidal Pool is definitely going to be finishing higher up in the Oaks race. It's interesting the way she finished second to Blind Luck in that race, and it might be the way things will end up in the Oaks. But longshots can sometimes pull off miracles . . . it's hard to say.
EF: Watch out, Oaks ladies, you've got a threat there!
Q: Would any of you care to reveal your Oaks trifectas?
DJ: Blind Luck, Tidal Pool, and Amen Hallelujah.
RS: Yes; I have thought quite a bit about this race and I would put my trifecta in this order: 1; Amen Hallelujah; 2; Blind Luck; 3; Tidal Pool.
EF: 1; Blind Luck, 2; Tidal Pool, 3; Champagne d'Oro (in passing, that's a very pretty name. . . 'Champagne of Gold'.)
Q: Now let's take a look at the Kentucky Derby. As usual, a huge field of twenty horses have entered. Lookin at Lucky, the 3-1 morning line favorite, has drawn the rail. Sidney's Candy, the 5-1 second choice, drew gate twenty. What do you think of that?
DJ: I think it's pretty wild. Lookin at Lucky is going to have to fight hard for a position and Sidney's Candy will probably be quite wide going into that first turn. But it may not matter.
RS: It's odd that both favorites of the Derby ended up with outside post positions. Lookin at Lucky is most certainly a powerful colt, as is Sidney's Candy. It's probable that they are going to do well in the race, but perhaps, due to their positions, something might happen . . . but look at Big Brown, the winner of the Kentucky Derby of 2008. He broke from Post 20, which is considered not so good, but think of what he came away with! The credentials of being the winner of one of the most prestigious races in the history of horse racing!
EF: I'm a bit worried about that. The #1 slot isn't the best place to be, and neither is #20. Lookin at Lucky can probably pull something off, but I don't have my sights set too high for Sidney's Candy. I'm not very impressed with him, though he did wire the Santa Anita.
Q: What do you think of Dublin drawing gate seventeen? Do you think it hurts his chances?
DJ: I don't think so. Think of Closing Argument, Big Brown, Smarty Jones. . .all of these horses had outside posts and performed well.
RS: If Dublin has really spectacular stamina, he'll have to show it on Derby day, because I doubt his post position will do him any good.
EF: I believe it will hurt him, but how much has yet to be determined. He's a strong colt, and D. Wayne Lukas is a terrific trainer. I'm confident.
Q: Stately Victor, the Blue Grass winner, has drawn gate six. He is 30-1 on the morning line. However, he has been training very well at Churchill Downs and many people think that his Blue Grass was no fluke. What do you think?
DJ: The Blue Grass has produced some inconsistent results in the past, so it's hard to say. But I'm going to stick with my opinion that Stately Victor will perform well in the Derby. I think he'll hit the board.
RS: I love Stately Victor; and since his training at Churchill Downs has been going well, I think he has a shot at victory.
EF: We-ell. . . flukes do happen. However, #6 is a good position, and his training has, indeed, been encouraging, so he might be able to surprise me.
Q: In gate ten is the Blue Grass runner up Paddy O'Prado. He has been looking very, very good at Churchill Downs and many feel he is sitting on a big race. He also has three-time Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. What do you think of him?
DJ: I like Stately Victor better.
RS: Paddy O'Prado is definitely looking interesting. I would say that he is one of the best colts running right now.
EF: He bears watching. Kent has been known to do amazing things, not to mention he has a good gate position.
Q: The filly Devil May Care, who was entered in only the Kentucky Derby, drew gate eleven. What do you think of her chances?
DJ: I think she's probably a good filly, but this is a tough field. My gut feeling is that she's going to tire in the stretch.
RS: It would be great seeing a filly win, but the colts will be pretty stiff competition.
EF: I'm all for the fillies! I was one of those who cheered Eight Belles on in 2008, and Rags to Riches was my pick for the 2007 Belmont. If she wins, I won't be crying!
Q: Super Saver, at 15-1, drew gate four. He will be ridden by two time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel. What do you think of his chances?
DJ: I think Super Saver should be watched carefully. I like him a lot.
RS: I've been a fan of Super Saver for awhile now. Super Saver's great!
EF: Calvin Borel has my utmost respect, and Super Saver looks terrific to me. The odds don't worry me, and the #4 gate is a coveted position. So, I think his chances are good.
Q: What about the twelve horse, Conveyance? He doesn't seem to be a mile and a quarter horse, but many feel this front running son of Indian Charlie could get the job done. What do you think?
DJ: I think Conveyance can do it. If Lookin at Lucky doesn't get the job done, perhaps Conveyance can get another Derby win for Bob Baffert.
RS: Conveyance has been one of the horses that is down the list of my Derby picks; although I must admit, he's may do well.
EF: A front runner, hmmm. . . I have the niggling suspicion that he'll start out strong and then fade off as the race progresses.
Q: Make Music for Me is another interesting colt. His morning line odds are 50-1, but he has finished second and third behind Lookin at Lucky multiple times. What do you think of him?
DJ: I don't know too much about this colt, but I do like Santa Anita horses in the Derby. And if he's been racing behind Lookin at Lucky, and Lookin at Lucky get's trapped behind horses because of his #1 post position. . . hmm . . .
RS: I love Make Music for Me! He was one of my original Derby picks (I had him second for awhile there) and I was so disappointed when I found out he wouldn't be running . . . but then he got in! I think he has a wonderful chance of doing well.
EF: He isn’t my favorite. But neither esd Mine That Bird, and how could anyone forget how that little gelding?
Q: What about the thirteen horse Jackson Bend? Despite the fact that his pedigree doesn't scream a mile and a quarter, this colt never gives up and always fights to the finish. What do you think of his chances?
DJ: Well, I wasn't expecting him to get in the Derby, so now I've got to rethink things. I think he could be sitting on an impressive run. Part of what makes the Derby so exciting is that we don't really know if any of the horses can go a mile and a quarter---none of them ever have! Who knows? I like Jackson Bend.
RS: From what I've heard, Jackson Bend is a determined and tough horse, so I would say yes, I think he'll be able to pull off something.
EF: He's definitely got drive, and determination, but I'm not sure if he has enough to really be a factor towards the end of the race. His broodmare sire, however, is Tabasco Cat. . . the 1994 Preakness and Belmont winner. . . he could do something.
Q: Mission Impazible, the Louisiana Derby winner, seems to be coming into the race the right way. He has been improving in every start and has really taken to Churchill Downs. He also seems to like wet tracks. What do you think of his chances?
DJ: This Derby track probably will be wet, so that's something in his favor.
RS: Very good. I have been quite impressed with this guy.
EF: Very, very good. I like what I see. He's a strong runner and if he keeps improving the way he has, I think he should peak at the Derby.
Q: I find it interesting that three of the last four Derby winners have made their final starts five weeks before the big day. This year, that pattern favors Dean's Kitten, Mission Impazible, Conveyance, and Discreetly Mine. Do you think that those magical five week layoffs will provide a Derby winner yet again?
DJ: This is an interesting trend, but I'm going to skip over these horses and look one week further back, to Ice Box. I liked his run in the Florida Derby.
RS: Personally, I haven't been giving Dean's Kitten, Conveyance, or Discreetly Mine much thought as for a Kentucky Derby win, but as I said before, Mission Impazible is really an excellent horse.
EF: A layoff is good, and as I have said before, I like Mission Impazible's looks. Discreetly Mine, Conveyance, Dean's Kitten --- well, I'm not too excited. I doubt they'll hit the board.
Q: What about Homeboykris? He hasn't raced in nine weeks, and hasn't done anything of note since last October when he won the Champagne. But in that race, he defeated Discreetly Mine, Super Saver, and Dublin, all of whom made it to this year's Kentucky Derby. What do you think of his chances?
DJ: I think he could be another Giacomo or Mind That Bird. This horse should definitely be considered, and I always watch the Champagne winner very closely.
RS: Homeboykris should definitely be watched.
EF: October was a long time ago, but the Champagne is nothing to be sneezed at. He might make the board.
Q: Then there is Awesome Act. The Wood Memorial was a nightmare but he still finished third, beaten only a head for second. What do you think of his chances here?
DJ: I'm less impressed with this horse. I believe the Wood was run very slowly, and the horses behind Eskendreya were way up the track.
RS: Because of Awesome Act's trouble in the Wood Memorial, I am not too thrilled with him. But you can't just forget about him; he might just pull off something.
EF: Awesome Act has had a nightmare in the Wood Memorial; hopefully he'll get a dream trip in the Derby.
Q: Now let's briefly discuss the grade II American Turf Stakes, which will be run right before the Kentucky Oaks this afternoon. Eleven horses entered, but the ten horse, Make Music for Me will be scratching because he managed to sneak into the Kentucky Derby. But the big name in the race is Setsuko, who many feel is the best three year old in the country right now. Unfortunately, he did not make it into the Derby. But the Belmont is still a possibility. What do you think of him in general and in this race?
DJ: I think he could run well here, and he could be something to watch out for in the Belmont.
RS: He's a lovely horse, and the Turf Stakes' runners should be on the lookout for this amazingly incredible colt.
EF: He is undeniably one of the better horses this year, despite his insufficient graded earnings. I firmly believe he will hit the board.
Q: Who do you think will win the American Turf Stakes? Setsuko, the morning line favorite Lost Aptitude, or one of the longer shots like Doubles Partner or Guys Reward?
DJ: I'm taking Lost Aptitude and Kent Desormeaux.
RS: I would go with Saint Eligius, ridden by Alan Garcia.
EF: Give me Doubles Partner. He's got a great jockey, a great trainer, and a fair gate position.
Q: Now let's take a look at the grade II La Troienne Stakes, also on the Oaks undercard. The grade II race for fillies and mares three year old and upward drew a small field of six, but includes reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Zardana, who upset her in the New Orleans Ladies last March, is also here. What do you think of the race?
DJ: Rachel Alexandra will win it, easy.
RS: Rachel Alexandra is really a quite terrific horse, and she's most definitely my choice.
EF: Be fair to Be Fair. Though I would like to see her a little further out from the rail, and with slightly lower odds, she looks good to me, and I think that second place is hers.
Q: Do you think that Rachel Alexandra will be upset? She does have to carry four to six pounds more than any other entry.
DJ: No, I think Rachel has got this one. She just wasn't quite ready in that last race.
RS: It's hard to say . . . My pick is Rachel Alexandra, but you never know.
EF: No. Enough said. : )
Q: Care to reveal your top two picks?
DJ: Rachel Alexandra and Unrivaled Belle
RS: Rachel Alexandra and Unrivaled Belle!!
EF: Rachel Alexandra and Be Fair, followed very closely by Zardana.
Q: Let's take a quick glance at the grade III Kentucky Juvenile Stakes for two year old colts or fillies, four races before the Kentucky Oaks. If you can believe it, the three favorites are fillies. The morning line favorite at 5-2 is the seven horse Nina Fever, who will be ridden by Robby Albarado. Do you think that she will win?
DJ: She looks good to me.
RS: Nina Fever looks spectacular in this race, but Boys at Tosconova also looks pretty good.
Q: Among the six colts, Wetzel is the co-favorite with Lou Brissie. Do you think that they can upset the fillies?
DJ: Well, it's certainly possible, but I like the favorite here.
RS: Possibly, possibly . . . I like Wetzel myself, but I'm doubting an upset here, for different reasons.
EF: Wetzel and Lou Brissie are obviously good horses, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either of them be an upset.
Q: I'm down to the final few questions. The Alysheba Stakes, two races before the Kentucky Oaks, drew an impressive field of older males. The morning line favorite is Arson Squad, just narrowly favored over last year's Kentucky Derby favorite Friesan Fire. Cool Coal Man, Chocolate Candy, Macho Again, Bullsbay, and Flying Private make this a truly memorable field. Who do you think will win?
DJ: Wow, what a field! Hard to pick, but I'm going with Cool Coal Man.
RS: Chocolate Candy, although Arson Squad seems like he's ready for anything.
EF: Friesan Fire was one of my favorites in the Derby last year, but his finish was disappointing. Nevertheless, he's my pick.
Q: What about the grade III Eight Belles Stakes on Derby Day? Do you think that there is any chance of Hot Dixie Chick being upset?
DJ: No, she looks good to me.
RS: I personally like Bell's Shoes---and I must say, I'm so excited that Eight Belles got her own stakes! She was a remarkable little filly who is greatly missed.
EF: Uhhhh, not really. . . she's an impressive filly.
Q: Now, this is final race that we are going to discuss. The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes, run right before the Kentucky Derby. Two of the runners, Court Vision and General Quarters, both also-rans from their crops Kentucky Derby. Court Vision finished off the board behind Big Brown in 2008, while General Quarters ran tenth behind Mine That Bird last year. What do you think of their chances here?
DJ: I'm taking General Quarters here. I liked him last year, so maybe he can do better this time.
RS: Court Vision! I don't exactly know why, but I've always been very fond of him.
EF: I think the top three will be; Court Vision, Battle of Hastings, General Quarters.
Q: Final question. Would anyof you care to reveal your Derby super high fives?
DJ: Okay here it goes: #1, Dublin. #2, Lookin at Lucky, #3, Ice Box, #4, Stately Victor, #5, Super Saver.
RS: Stately Victor is first for me . . . then Dublin, then Homeboykris, then Ice Box, and then Super Saver.
EF: Line of David is calling loudly to me. I can't stop thinking how he blasted out of the gate in the Arkansas. . . so, even though I'm doubtful about his ability to go a mile and a quarter, I'm putting him at #1, followed closely by Devil May Care, Dublin, Mission Impazible, and Paddy O'Prado.
Thanks for the interviews, you three!
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Line of David. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Line of David. Show all posts
Thursday, May 06, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 16th, 2010
It is now just two weeks until the Kentucky Derby. The field is taking shape, and only two more preps remain. One of them is this Saturday.
Last week, several important things happened, including Odysseus, Uh Oh Bango, Interactif, and Aikenite dropping out of the Kentucky Derby. Odysseus and Uh Oh Bango won't be running in any of the Triple Crown races due to injuries. Interactif might still run in the Derby, but it is highly doubted. Aikenite is skipping the Derby, but might show up for the Belmont. Noble's Promise may or may not run in the Derby due to a variety of problems, and Lookin at Lucky is going to shed his blinkers.
Confused yet? I'll explain.
But first, let's take a look at the Coolmore Lexington Stakes.
COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES (gr. II) ---- Keeneland, Race 9, April 17th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
So, this is the Lexington Stakes. I'm afraid that it is a bit of a disappointment. Now, don't get me wrong, the field is great and it's going to be a great race to watch, but because it's going to take over $200,000 to get into the Kentucky Derby this year, it looks as though the winner of this race will not make the Kentucky Derby. Of all the runners, it appears that only Connemara has the graded earnings to possibly get in with a win here, and he isn't aiming for the Kentucky Derby at this time. Disappointing, but it's still going to be a good race. Let's take a look at who's running.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten has only two wins in two starts, but does have a win over the Keeneland Polytrack. Trained by K. McLaughlin, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. His morning line odds are 6-1, but I think that he has a better chance than his odds say.
Then there is the number two horse Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse is the slight morning line favorite at 4-1. He is also the heavy sentimental favorite, for his trainer, Alan Seewald, passed away on April 12th. Uptowncharlybrown is now being trained by Seewald's assistant Linda White. According to Bob Hutt, one of the many owners of the colt, Seewald did not intend to start Uptowncharlybrown in the Kentucky Derby, but it was his dream to win the Haskell Invitational. Hopefully, the colt will be able to do it for him. He will be ridden today by Garrett Gomez and will carry 117 pounds.
Moving on, we come to the number three horse Distorted Dave. The son of Distorted Humor comes into the Lexington off of an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Santa Anita Park. This will be his first start outside of California, and his first start at a track other than Santa Anita for that matter. He may just have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza.
This brings us to the number four horse Bushwhacked. The son of Posse comes into the Lexington off of a win in a maiden race at Keeneland two weeks ago. It was his third attempt to break his maiden, but his first start at Keeneland. He may be coming back a little quick, but I wouldn't count him out. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by R. Maragh.
Now we come to the number five horse Call Shot. The son of Tale of the Cat has been competing with some very good company, including Radiohead, Homeboykris, Dublin, and Thiskihasnolimit. He was actually entered to run in the Transylvania Stakes on April 2nd, but scratched. Although he only has two wins from six starts, he has finished in the top three five out of six times. He most recently finished third to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a Gulfstream Park allowance race. He does have a win over the Keeneland surface, in an allowance race last October, and I would not be surprised at all if this colt wins. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Alvarado.
This brings us to the number six horse Prince Will I Am. The son of Victory Gallop has not raced since finishing way behind in the Fountain of Youth Stakes eight weeks ago. Prior to that, he had run second to the highly regarded Drosselmeyer in a nine furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. This will be his first start on a synthetic track. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel.
Then there is the number seven horse Lonesome Street. The son of Broken Vow was a late running second to Exhi in the eight and a half furlong Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park three weeks ago. His morning line odds are 12-1, which seem fair, but he may have a shot at stealing the race. He will be carrying only 117 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Now we come to the number eight horse Exhi. The son of Maria's Mon, as I mentioned earlier, won the mile and a sixteenth Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. He will have to carry co-top weight of 121 pounds, but I think that he is up to the challenge. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, and will likely be on or near the lead. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, which seems to be a good thing right now.
This brings to the number nine horse Heavenville. The son of Oflee Wild has already started twelve times, winning three, finishing second four times, and third twice. He has been consistent, although this will be a big step up in class for him. Carrying 117 pounds, he will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. He might just be in the mix, as he is proven on this track. He broke his maiden here last April.
Now we move on to the other Todd Pletcher colt, the number ten horse Connemara. The son of Giant's Causeway has never finished worse than third in five starts, but comes into the Lexington Stakes off of a third place finish, beaten nearly six lengths, in the Lane's End Stakes behind Dean's Kitten and Northern Giant. According to Todd Pletcher, Connemara is unlikely for the Kentucky Derby, although a win here would give him the necessary earnings. Actually, it appears as though Connemara is the only colt in the race who can make the Derby with a win here. But anyway, he will be ridden by Russel Baze, and will carry co-top weight of 121 pounds. He should run well here, although it will be his first start on Keeneland's Polytrack.
Then there is the number eleven horse Kettle River. The son of Congaree has only raced four times, breakings his maiden on the second try last November, winning an allowance race in early January, and finishing off the board in the Sham Stakes in early March. He is the morning line second choice, along with Connemara, and should be able to run a good race. This will be his first start at Keeneland, although he has been training there for a while. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Castellano.
Finally, we come to the number twelve horse Chief Counsel. The son of Officer has started six times, finishing in the top three five times and fourth one other time. He comes into the Lexington off of a fourth place finish behind Dean's Kitten, Northern Giant, and Connemara in the Lane's End Stakes. I can't really see this colt winning, especially from gate twelve, but he did overcome a bad trip in the Lane's End to come running late, so he may have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux.
So I have finally gotten through all of the entries. Here are my selections. . .
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
Now, I must admit that the field is very tough field and I am probably wrong about the order of finish, but I am pretty confident. I realize that Kettle River, Krypton, and others that I have low on my list have excellent shots at winning, but I like Call Shot and Uptowncharlybrown, with Connemara to rally for third. My final thought is this: Prince Will I Am has the potential to improve greatly on the Keeneland surface and I would not even blink if he was to roar from behind and blast to a fifty length victory. (Okay, I would be blinking if he won by fifty, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if he won.)
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, the Lexington is the only really Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks prep going on this weekend, but I will mention that the first two stakes races for two year olds are being run this Saturday. Both are at Sunland Park, and both are four and a half furlongs in distance. One is for colts and geldings, the other for fillies. They are both called the Copper Top Futurity.
The first one (for fillies) has drawn a field of ten, but the number nine horse Shug's Midnight has scratched, leaving only nine runners. The morning line favorite at 8-5 is the number five horse Shamrock Girl. Tin Can Kitty should also receive some money at 3-1. Of the lot, I like Shamrock Girl. Her workouts have been nice and she is currently undefeated in two starts. Diamond Charm might also have a shot.
The second one (for colts) also drew a field of ten, but after three scratches, the field has been reduced to seven. The slight morning line favorite is Dodson at 5-2, with Ting at 7-2 and Verny at 4-1. The three of them are undefeated, each of them having raced once.
Of course, the odds of any of these horses becoming a Kentucky Derby winner a fairly small, but you never know where the next great one will come from.
Now I believe that I will move on to recapping what happened last week.
RACE RECAPS
To begin with, I'll discuss the Blue Grass Stakes. The grade I prep for the Kentucky Derby drew a tough field of nine, and as I said last week, I could see eight of those nine horse winning easily. The only colt I couldn't see winning was Stately Victor.
Here are the results.
1 Stately Victor
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 First Dude
4 Interactif
5 Codoy
6 Make Music for Me
7 Pleasant Prince
8 Aikenite
9 Odysseus
. . . versus my selections.
1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor
Wow.
Didn't see that coming.
I would have been closer if I had reversed my list.
Stately Victor? 40-1? If anybody had told me before the race that he would win, I would have said "No way." And then he won by four and a quarter lengths, with Paddy O'Prado second!
I was completely wrong about this race, as I usually am when it comes to Keeneland's Polytrack. My pick, Aikenite, just didn't fire. Nor did Pleasant Prince, who desperately needed earnings to get into the Derby. Unfortunately, due to his seventh place finish, he is forced to run back in the Derby Trial next week. As for Odysseus, he came out of the race with a bone chip, and is now off the Derby trail.
The race set up exactly how I expected it to. Odysseus went right to the front, followed closely by Paddy O'Prado. Unfortunately, Odysseus did not hang around as long as I thought he would. Paddy O'Prado took the lead after about three quarters of a mile. Aikenite raced evenly just behind them, with First Dude also close. Moving around the final turn, Odysseus gave way and faded to last. Paddy O'Prado looked like a sure winner, but Stately Victor came roaring from sixth after three quarters of a mile to grab a four and a quarter length victory. Paddy O'Prado hung on for Second, with First Dude coming on for third. Aikenite, despite looking very good as they rounded the final turn, faded to finish eighth. Pleasant Prince had no excuses while finishing seventh. I guess that he just didn't care for the surface. He apparently emerged from the race okay, for he is going to run back in the Derby Trial next week to try and get the earnings to make the Kentucky Derby.
That said, it's time to move on to the Arkansas Derby.
Of the two big Derby preps last week, this was the one I was anticipating the most, for my Kentucky Derby pick Dublin was running. I knew that he would have his work cut out for him, as a solid field had turned out to face him. After carefully examining the pace set up, I deduced that Noble's Promise was the one to beat. I figured that Dublin would finish second and Super Saver third.
However, while looking over the entries, I noticed the number eight horse Line of David. He seemed to be a nice enough horse, and I knew that he would be the one to beat if he got a clear lead, but of course, that couldn't possibly happen with Super Saver running, right?
Wrong.
Much to my surprise, Line of David blasted away from the gate and had a commanding two and a half length lead after a quarter of a mile had been run. Super Saver was content to sit in second, ignoring the runaway leader!
After three eighths of a mile, I knew that Line of David was not going to be caught. As they turned for home, I thought that Dublin was going to catch him, and I cheered my favorite for the length of the stretch, but he fell a half length short while finishing third. Super Saver was second, with Line of David the winner by a head.
I suppose you’re wondering what happened to Noble's Promise. Well, he broke last and got squeezed at the start, forcing him to change his running style. The favorite did manage to get as close as fourth, but ended up finishing fifth. However, he came out of the race with several cuts on his legs and a slight lung infection, so his effort really wasn't that bad. It is unknown whether or not he will be able to make the Kentucky Derby, but I hope that he will recover in time. As for Dublin, he is still my top pick for the Kentucky Derby.
So here are the results . . .
1 Line of David
2 Super Saver
3 Dublin
4 Uh Oh Bango
5 Noble's Promise
6 New Madrid
7 Berberis
8 Pulsion
9 Northern Giant
. . . versus my selections.
1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid
So I was wrong once again. Like I said, I figured that there was no way for Line of David to get a clear lead, and I figured that he would fold as they turned for home. But it's possible that he wouldn't have folded even if Super Saver had pushed him, for he ran fractions of 22 3/5 and 46 1/5. A brilliant run, an excellent ride, and he's on his way to the Derby. As for Uh Oh Bango, who came flying late to finish fourth, he came out of the race with a fractured leg and will not be racing again for at least four months, if not more. It was very sad, for I liked him a lot for the Derby and Belmont, but he will be back.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Although I am running out of time, I will take a moment to mention a few other races that might affect the outcome of the Triple Crown. (I don't know how many times I have repeated that line, but I like it, and it says exactly what I want to say.)
The first race was the one mile Premiere Stakes for three year olds and up at Lone Star Park. Not exactly the prime spot to prep a Triple Crown horse, but you never know. The winner, and my pick, was Coyote Legend, who I believe was the only three year old running. He got a very good trip, and just managed to outfight Huntersrunaway to the wire. It was another half length back to Poltergeist, who actually made an attempt to make the Kentucky Derby last year. He ran in the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes, and Arkansas Derby, and I think he even hit the board in one of them, but I don't really remember. Anyway, congratulations to Coyote Legend for defeating older horses, and may you continue to win for a long, long time.
The second race was a six and a half furlong allowance race for three year olds at Santa Anita Park. The slightest favorite was Lions Story, but I liked Concord Point. It was a very good race, and Lions Story did run well, but it was all Concord Point, who went wire-to-wire at odds of 2-1. It was a length and a half back to the 12-1 shot Royce, who just hold off Lions Story for the place. It's possible that we might just see Concord Point in one of the Triple Crown races . . .
This brings us to the one mile Instant Racing Stakes for three year old fillies at Oaklawn Park. Run on the same day as the Arkansas Derby, the heavy favorite was Decelerator, and she proved that she deserved it, winning by a neck over Vertical Vision. Bell's Shoes finished third. It's possible that we might see both Decelerator and Vertical Vision in Kentucky for the Kentucky Oaks, but they may not have the graded earnings necessary.
And finally, we come to the one mile on the turf Appalachian Stakes for three year old fillies at Keeneland. The heavy favorite was Rose Catherine, but my pick was Check the Label. With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, Check the Label came from just off the pace to grab a three quarter length victory over Bay to Bay. Rose Catherine finished third.
And that is all. I'm looking forward to a great day of racing, as the Kentucky Derby comes closer and closer. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Last week, several important things happened, including Odysseus, Uh Oh Bango, Interactif, and Aikenite dropping out of the Kentucky Derby. Odysseus and Uh Oh Bango won't be running in any of the Triple Crown races due to injuries. Interactif might still run in the Derby, but it is highly doubted. Aikenite is skipping the Derby, but might show up for the Belmont. Noble's Promise may or may not run in the Derby due to a variety of problems, and Lookin at Lucky is going to shed his blinkers.
Confused yet? I'll explain.
But first, let's take a look at the Coolmore Lexington Stakes.
COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES (gr. II) ---- Keeneland, Race 9, April 17th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)
So, this is the Lexington Stakes. I'm afraid that it is a bit of a disappointment. Now, don't get me wrong, the field is great and it's going to be a great race to watch, but because it's going to take over $200,000 to get into the Kentucky Derby this year, it looks as though the winner of this race will not make the Kentucky Derby. Of all the runners, it appears that only Connemara has the graded earnings to possibly get in with a win here, and he isn't aiming for the Kentucky Derby at this time. Disappointing, but it's still going to be a good race. Let's take a look at who's running.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten has only two wins in two starts, but does have a win over the Keeneland Polytrack. Trained by K. McLaughlin, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. His morning line odds are 6-1, but I think that he has a better chance than his odds say.
Then there is the number two horse Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse is the slight morning line favorite at 4-1. He is also the heavy sentimental favorite, for his trainer, Alan Seewald, passed away on April 12th. Uptowncharlybrown is now being trained by Seewald's assistant Linda White. According to Bob Hutt, one of the many owners of the colt, Seewald did not intend to start Uptowncharlybrown in the Kentucky Derby, but it was his dream to win the Haskell Invitational. Hopefully, the colt will be able to do it for him. He will be ridden today by Garrett Gomez and will carry 117 pounds.
Moving on, we come to the number three horse Distorted Dave. The son of Distorted Humor comes into the Lexington off of an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Santa Anita Park. This will be his first start outside of California, and his first start at a track other than Santa Anita for that matter. He may just have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza.
This brings us to the number four horse Bushwhacked. The son of Posse comes into the Lexington off of a win in a maiden race at Keeneland two weeks ago. It was his third attempt to break his maiden, but his first start at Keeneland. He may be coming back a little quick, but I wouldn't count him out. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by R. Maragh.
Now we come to the number five horse Call Shot. The son of Tale of the Cat has been competing with some very good company, including Radiohead, Homeboykris, Dublin, and Thiskihasnolimit. He was actually entered to run in the Transylvania Stakes on April 2nd, but scratched. Although he only has two wins from six starts, he has finished in the top three five out of six times. He most recently finished third to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a Gulfstream Park allowance race. He does have a win over the Keeneland surface, in an allowance race last October, and I would not be surprised at all if this colt wins. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Alvarado.
This brings us to the number six horse Prince Will I Am. The son of Victory Gallop has not raced since finishing way behind in the Fountain of Youth Stakes eight weeks ago. Prior to that, he had run second to the highly regarded Drosselmeyer in a nine furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. This will be his first start on a synthetic track. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel.
Then there is the number seven horse Lonesome Street. The son of Broken Vow was a late running second to Exhi in the eight and a half furlong Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park three weeks ago. His morning line odds are 12-1, which seem fair, but he may have a shot at stealing the race. He will be carrying only 117 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Now we come to the number eight horse Exhi. The son of Maria's Mon, as I mentioned earlier, won the mile and a sixteenth Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. He will have to carry co-top weight of 121 pounds, but I think that he is up to the challenge. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, and will likely be on or near the lead. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, which seems to be a good thing right now.
This brings to the number nine horse Heavenville. The son of Oflee Wild has already started twelve times, winning three, finishing second four times, and third twice. He has been consistent, although this will be a big step up in class for him. Carrying 117 pounds, he will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. He might just be in the mix, as he is proven on this track. He broke his maiden here last April.
Now we move on to the other Todd Pletcher colt, the number ten horse Connemara. The son of Giant's Causeway has never finished worse than third in five starts, but comes into the Lexington Stakes off of a third place finish, beaten nearly six lengths, in the Lane's End Stakes behind Dean's Kitten and Northern Giant. According to Todd Pletcher, Connemara is unlikely for the Kentucky Derby, although a win here would give him the necessary earnings. Actually, it appears as though Connemara is the only colt in the race who can make the Derby with a win here. But anyway, he will be ridden by Russel Baze, and will carry co-top weight of 121 pounds. He should run well here, although it will be his first start on Keeneland's Polytrack.
Then there is the number eleven horse Kettle River. The son of Congaree has only raced four times, breakings his maiden on the second try last November, winning an allowance race in early January, and finishing off the board in the Sham Stakes in early March. He is the morning line second choice, along with Connemara, and should be able to run a good race. This will be his first start at Keeneland, although he has been training there for a while. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Castellano.
Finally, we come to the number twelve horse Chief Counsel. The son of Officer has started six times, finishing in the top three five times and fourth one other time. He comes into the Lexington off of a fourth place finish behind Dean's Kitten, Northern Giant, and Connemara in the Lane's End Stakes. I can't really see this colt winning, especially from gate twelve, but he did overcome a bad trip in the Lane's End to come running late, so he may have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux.
So I have finally gotten through all of the entries. Here are my selections. . .
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
Now, I must admit that the field is very tough field and I am probably wrong about the order of finish, but I am pretty confident. I realize that Kettle River, Krypton, and others that I have low on my list have excellent shots at winning, but I like Call Shot and Uptowncharlybrown, with Connemara to rally for third. My final thought is this: Prince Will I Am has the potential to improve greatly on the Keeneland surface and I would not even blink if he was to roar from behind and blast to a fifty length victory. (Okay, I would be blinking if he won by fifty, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if he won.)
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, the Lexington is the only really Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks prep going on this weekend, but I will mention that the first two stakes races for two year olds are being run this Saturday. Both are at Sunland Park, and both are four and a half furlongs in distance. One is for colts and geldings, the other for fillies. They are both called the Copper Top Futurity.
The first one (for fillies) has drawn a field of ten, but the number nine horse Shug's Midnight has scratched, leaving only nine runners. The morning line favorite at 8-5 is the number five horse Shamrock Girl. Tin Can Kitty should also receive some money at 3-1. Of the lot, I like Shamrock Girl. Her workouts have been nice and she is currently undefeated in two starts. Diamond Charm might also have a shot.
The second one (for colts) also drew a field of ten, but after three scratches, the field has been reduced to seven. The slight morning line favorite is Dodson at 5-2, with Ting at 7-2 and Verny at 4-1. The three of them are undefeated, each of them having raced once.
Of course, the odds of any of these horses becoming a Kentucky Derby winner a fairly small, but you never know where the next great one will come from.
Now I believe that I will move on to recapping what happened last week.
RACE RECAPS
To begin with, I'll discuss the Blue Grass Stakes. The grade I prep for the Kentucky Derby drew a tough field of nine, and as I said last week, I could see eight of those nine horse winning easily. The only colt I couldn't see winning was Stately Victor.
Here are the results.
1 Stately Victor
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 First Dude
4 Interactif
5 Codoy
6 Make Music for Me
7 Pleasant Prince
8 Aikenite
9 Odysseus
. . . versus my selections.
1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor
Wow.
Didn't see that coming.
I would have been closer if I had reversed my list.
Stately Victor? 40-1? If anybody had told me before the race that he would win, I would have said "No way." And then he won by four and a quarter lengths, with Paddy O'Prado second!
I was completely wrong about this race, as I usually am when it comes to Keeneland's Polytrack. My pick, Aikenite, just didn't fire. Nor did Pleasant Prince, who desperately needed earnings to get into the Derby. Unfortunately, due to his seventh place finish, he is forced to run back in the Derby Trial next week. As for Odysseus, he came out of the race with a bone chip, and is now off the Derby trail.
The race set up exactly how I expected it to. Odysseus went right to the front, followed closely by Paddy O'Prado. Unfortunately, Odysseus did not hang around as long as I thought he would. Paddy O'Prado took the lead after about three quarters of a mile. Aikenite raced evenly just behind them, with First Dude also close. Moving around the final turn, Odysseus gave way and faded to last. Paddy O'Prado looked like a sure winner, but Stately Victor came roaring from sixth after three quarters of a mile to grab a four and a quarter length victory. Paddy O'Prado hung on for Second, with First Dude coming on for third. Aikenite, despite looking very good as they rounded the final turn, faded to finish eighth. Pleasant Prince had no excuses while finishing seventh. I guess that he just didn't care for the surface. He apparently emerged from the race okay, for he is going to run back in the Derby Trial next week to try and get the earnings to make the Kentucky Derby.
That said, it's time to move on to the Arkansas Derby.
Of the two big Derby preps last week, this was the one I was anticipating the most, for my Kentucky Derby pick Dublin was running. I knew that he would have his work cut out for him, as a solid field had turned out to face him. After carefully examining the pace set up, I deduced that Noble's Promise was the one to beat. I figured that Dublin would finish second and Super Saver third.
However, while looking over the entries, I noticed the number eight horse Line of David. He seemed to be a nice enough horse, and I knew that he would be the one to beat if he got a clear lead, but of course, that couldn't possibly happen with Super Saver running, right?
Wrong.
Much to my surprise, Line of David blasted away from the gate and had a commanding two and a half length lead after a quarter of a mile had been run. Super Saver was content to sit in second, ignoring the runaway leader!
After three eighths of a mile, I knew that Line of David was not going to be caught. As they turned for home, I thought that Dublin was going to catch him, and I cheered my favorite for the length of the stretch, but he fell a half length short while finishing third. Super Saver was second, with Line of David the winner by a head.
I suppose you’re wondering what happened to Noble's Promise. Well, he broke last and got squeezed at the start, forcing him to change his running style. The favorite did manage to get as close as fourth, but ended up finishing fifth. However, he came out of the race with several cuts on his legs and a slight lung infection, so his effort really wasn't that bad. It is unknown whether or not he will be able to make the Kentucky Derby, but I hope that he will recover in time. As for Dublin, he is still my top pick for the Kentucky Derby.
So here are the results . . .
1 Line of David
2 Super Saver
3 Dublin
4 Uh Oh Bango
5 Noble's Promise
6 New Madrid
7 Berberis
8 Pulsion
9 Northern Giant
. . . versus my selections.
1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid
So I was wrong once again. Like I said, I figured that there was no way for Line of David to get a clear lead, and I figured that he would fold as they turned for home. But it's possible that he wouldn't have folded even if Super Saver had pushed him, for he ran fractions of 22 3/5 and 46 1/5. A brilliant run, an excellent ride, and he's on his way to the Derby. As for Uh Oh Bango, who came flying late to finish fourth, he came out of the race with a fractured leg and will not be racing again for at least four months, if not more. It was very sad, for I liked him a lot for the Derby and Belmont, but he will be back.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
Although I am running out of time, I will take a moment to mention a few other races that might affect the outcome of the Triple Crown. (I don't know how many times I have repeated that line, but I like it, and it says exactly what I want to say.)
The first race was the one mile Premiere Stakes for three year olds and up at Lone Star Park. Not exactly the prime spot to prep a Triple Crown horse, but you never know. The winner, and my pick, was Coyote Legend, who I believe was the only three year old running. He got a very good trip, and just managed to outfight Huntersrunaway to the wire. It was another half length back to Poltergeist, who actually made an attempt to make the Kentucky Derby last year. He ran in the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes, and Arkansas Derby, and I think he even hit the board in one of them, but I don't really remember. Anyway, congratulations to Coyote Legend for defeating older horses, and may you continue to win for a long, long time.
The second race was a six and a half furlong allowance race for three year olds at Santa Anita Park. The slightest favorite was Lions Story, but I liked Concord Point. It was a very good race, and Lions Story did run well, but it was all Concord Point, who went wire-to-wire at odds of 2-1. It was a length and a half back to the 12-1 shot Royce, who just hold off Lions Story for the place. It's possible that we might just see Concord Point in one of the Triple Crown races . . .
This brings us to the one mile Instant Racing Stakes for three year old fillies at Oaklawn Park. Run on the same day as the Arkansas Derby, the heavy favorite was Decelerator, and she proved that she deserved it, winning by a neck over Vertical Vision. Bell's Shoes finished third. It's possible that we might see both Decelerator and Vertical Vision in Kentucky for the Kentucky Oaks, but they may not have the graded earnings necessary.
And finally, we come to the one mile on the turf Appalachian Stakes for three year old fillies at Keeneland. The heavy favorite was Rose Catherine, but my pick was Check the Label. With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, Check the Label came from just off the pace to grab a three quarter length victory over Bay to Bay. Rose Catherine finished third.
And that is all. I'm looking forward to a great day of racing, as the Kentucky Derby comes closer and closer. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Saturday, April 10, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 9th, 2010
I can hardly believe that it is just three weeks until the Kentucky Derby. The final major prep races are being run tomorrow, and some tough fields have turned out to compete for their spot in the Kentucky Derby. I suspect that we will see some great performances by top horses tomorrow, as well as some surprises. It's going to be a great set of races. Let's begin by looking over the Blue Grass Stakes.
BLUE GRASS STAKES (gr. I) ---- Keeneland, Race 10, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
You have to give credit to this group, they are going to provide us with a spectacular race tomorrow. The field of nine is very evenly matched, and I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone here win. (Okay, I would be surprised if Stately Victor won, but you get the idea.)
The nine furlong race is run at Keeneland, which has always had an interesting surface. Like most synthetic tracks, Keeneland's Polytrack seems to favor turf horses, but Keeneland's surface is just plain unusual. In 2009, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was General Quarters. He ended up tenth in the Derby. In 2008, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was Monba. He finished last. In 2007, it was Dominican who won the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished eleventh in the Derby. In 2006, the Blue Grass winner was Sinister Minister. He ended up sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby.
Of course, the track was odd even when it was dirt. In 2005, Bandini won the Blue Grass by six lengths and was well bet in the Kentucky Derby. He ended up nineteenth.
There seems to be a pattern here. It looks to me like the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes never fires in the Kentucky Derby. But let's take a look at the horses who were beaten in the Blue Grass Stakes. . .
In 2009, Hold Me Back finished second in the Blue Grass. Although he ran twelfth in the Derby, he did return to finish second behind Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird in the Travers Stakes. Finishing fifth in the 2009 Blue Grass was Join in the Dance, who set the pace in that year's Derby before finishing seventh. Finishing seventh in the Blue Grass was Charitable Man, who went on to win the Peter Pan Stakes and finish fourth in the Belmont Stakes.
But wait, it gets better! In 2008, Cowboy Cal finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes. Although he finished well back in Kentucky, he went on to become an excellent grade I winning turf miler. Finishing tenth in that year's Blue Grass was Pyro, who failed to fire in the Kentucky Derby but went on to become a grade I winner.
In 2007, Street Sense lost the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose, but rebounded to win the Kentucky Derby. He then finished second by a nose in the Preakness and went on to win the Jim Dandy and the Travers.
And finally, in 2005, Closing Argument finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes, but returned to run second in the Kentucky Derby, beaten only a half a length at odds of 71-1.
So that's why I'm going to be watching the colts who are beaten tomorrow, as well as the winner. Now that my big statistic analysis is over, let's take a look at the entries.
The number one horse is Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon comes into the Blue Grass off of a desperate nose win in last month's Tampa Bay Derby. Originally, Odysseus was here strictly to prep for the Triple Crown, but now it looks like he is going to need some additional earnings if he is going to make the Kentucky Derby. A top three finish, or perhaps even a top four finish, would be sufficient, but it is possible that he could be kept out of the Derby. The 7-2 morning line second choice will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh and will carry 123 pounds, the same as everybody else.
Then there is the number two horse First Dude. The son of Stephen Got Even ran fifth in last month's Florida Derby, and is returning only three weeks later for one last shot at getting the graded earnings necessary to make the Kentucky Derby. He was beaten by six and a quarter lengths in that race, but has a good shot at running better tomorrow. Four of his five career starts have been on dirt, but it is interesting to note that he has raced at Keeneland before, finishing second in his first start to Chief Counsel, who just finished fourth in the Lane's End Stakes two weeks ago, despite going seven wide turning for home. I believe that First Dude may be a serious sleeper. He will be ridden tomorrow by Ramon Dominguez, who has not ridden him since October last year.
This brings us to the number three horse Stately Victor. The son of Ghostzapper’s morning line odds are 30-1, but he does have Alan Garcia in the saddle. He has been racing in allowance races lately, and not very well. It would be a huge surprise if he was to win, but you never know what might happen. Perhaps he can go wire-to-wire.
Now we come to the number four horse Make Music for Me. I have liked this colt for many months now, and am looking forward to seeing him race tomorrow. The son of Bernstein comes in to the Blue Grass off of a win in the Pasadena Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. It was the colt’s first victory, although he had been running in, and running well, in more than one grade I stakes last year. He will be ridden by Mike Smith.
Then there is the number five horse Codoy. The son of Bernstein finished first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last February before being disqualified for extensive interference. He is the 30-1 morning line longshot, along with Stately Victor. Codoy will be ridden by John Velazquez.
This brings us to the number six horse Pleasant Prince. The son of Indy King is the morning line favorite, and actually didn't intend to run in this race. In his last start, he lost the Florida Derby by a nose. Had he won, he would have been trained up to the Kentucky Derby. But because he has only $162,500 in graded earnings, it looks as though he will be kept out of the Derby unless he picks up some money here tomorrow. It's not going to be great, running three times in six weeks, but it's not as bad as it could be. He has been training very sharply, and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Now we come to the number seven horse Paddy O'Prado. The son of El Prado has not raced since winning the grade III Palm Beach Stakes on March 6th. His run in that race was very impressive, as he raced very close to the lead through excellent fractions before drawing off to win by two and a half, running the mile and an eighth in 1:45 2/5, a very, very good time. Finishing second in that race was Dean's Kitten, who has gone on to win the Lane's End Stakes. Despite the fact that Paddy O'Prado has 10-1 morning line odds, I think that he is one of the major contenders and will definitely be in the mix. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who has won three Kentucky Derbies.
Then there is the number eight horse Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True has not raced since finishing third to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but that is certainly not an effort to be ashamed of. The seven week layoff coming to this race is a bit of a concern, but he should be ready to fire a big one. He has shown that he likes this track, as he fell only a half length short last year of catching Noble's Promise in the grade I Breeders Futurity. With morning line odds of 4-1, he has a big chance at upsetting Pleasant Prince, especially with Garrett Gomez in the saddle.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Interactif. The son of Broken Vow has been very consistent, but has not won a race since the Bourbon Stakes last October. Since then, he has finished a close third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, second in the Hallandale Beach Stakes, and second in the San Felipe Stakes. The latter was his first race on a synthetic track, and he fell only a half length short of catching top Kentucky Derby hopeful Sidney's Candy. Interactif certainly has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, and he has a pedigree that reads dirt, but I think that he is at his best on turf. Anyway, he will be ridden tomorrow by Rafael Bejarano.
So, who do I like? It's tough to pick a favorite. I would love to see every runner win. I will be personally rooting for Odysseus, because I would love to see him in the Kentucky Derby, but here are my selections. . .
1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor
Man, that was tough. The field for this race is incredible. But as much as I like Odysseus, and as much as I like him for the Kentucky Derby, I don't think that he is going to take to the synthetics. I feel the same way about First Dude, even though he has run here before. I can see Paddy O'Prado winning tomorrow, but I just have the suspicion that he isn't going to repeat his Palm Beach Stakes run here tomorrow. I think that this is going to be a Todd Pletcher sweep, with his two colts running one-two, just like Monba and Cowboy Cal did in 2008. I love Make Music for Me, and I have been following his career since last December, but I just don't know if he is good enough to handle this group. So my actual selections: Aikenite and Interactif. Sentimental selections: Odysseus and Make Music for Me.
Now lets move on to the Arkansas Derby.
ARKANSAS DERBY (gr. I) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 9, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
No matter which way you look at it, the Arkansas Derby is going to be one of the best in many years. Not only is the field top class, but it is evenly matched. Nine fabulous colts have turned out for at shot at the $1,000,000 purse. Nine of those colts are winners. Six of them are stakes placed. Four of them are stakes winners. Three of them are graded stakes winners. Two of them are grade I winners. One of them is an Eclipse award finalist. One great field. I would not be surprised at all to see the Kentucky Derby winner emerge from this race. Let's take a closer look at who's running. . .
The number one horse is Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon is the morning line favorite, and has been extremely consistent so far, never finishing worse than fourth in five races. As a matter of fact, he has only finished fourth once, when he was beaten two lengths for all the money in the grade I Champagne Stakes. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a third place finish, beaten only a half a length, in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams. He will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who rode him to his best victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year. He will likely set the pace tomorrow, and will definitely be in the mix. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as Dublin, Noble's Promise, and Uh Oh Bango will carry. All of the other entries will carry 118 pounds.
This brings us to the number two horse Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex won the Hopeful Stakes last year before running poorly in the Champagne Stakes and the Iroquis Stakes. However, it was discovered that he had a breathing problem, which explained his poor showings. It was corrected a few months ago, and since then he has been racing very well, running second to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes and third in the Rebel Stakes behind Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has won thirteen Triple Crown races, and I would love to see him add one more. A win tomorrow would certainly make Dublin one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who has been riding quite well at Oaklawn lately. It is also interesting to note that Dublin was born in April, so he will just be turning three this month. I think we will see a great run from him tomorrow.
Now we come to the morning line second choice, who I believe will be the favorite by the time they get to the gate. The colt is Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been even more consistent than Super Saver, never finishing worse than third in third in seven races. He has won three of those races, and finished second in another three. He would have been the champion two year old male last year had Lookin at Lucky not been around. Noble's Promise has run behind Lookin at Lucky in each of their three meetings. But now he has a chance to emerge from the champion's shadow and prove himself to be Kentucky Derby caliber. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, who I'm sure will get a good run out of him, but Noble's Promise does have stamina issues. He is not bred to get a mile and a quarter and it's possible that a mile and an eighth is out of his range. We'll see what he does tomorrow.
Then there is the number four horse Northern Giant. The son of Giant's Causeway looks bred to go a mile and a quarter, but graded earnings are a concern. Currently sitting with $127,000, he would need to finish first, second, or possibly third to get into the Kentucky Derby. He enters the Arkansas Derby off of a runner up performance to Dean's Kitten in the Lane's End Stakes just two weeks ago. He may be coming back a little quick, but perhaps he can handle it. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, which make him Dublin's stablemate. He will be ridden tomorrow, for the first time, by Victor Espinoza. If the track turns up sloppy tomorrow, (it doesn't look like it will) I don't think anyone can beat him.
This brings us to the number five horse Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit may be just a bit below the top three year old form but has been very consistent, like many of the other horses in this race. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a fourth place finish behind Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, and Dublin in the Rebel Stakes, beaten six and three quarter lengths. However, he has the potential to improve off of that effort, as it was his first start in over three months. He might just surprise everyone and throw in a winning run. He will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan.
Now we come to the number six horse New Madrid. The son of Rock Hard Ten has a very nice pedigree, and has been racing rather well lately. He has only raced three times. In his debut last November at Churchill Downs, he was knocked off stride and failed to threaten while finishing sixth. In his next race, however, he ran quite well, coming four wide to finish second in a maiden race at Oaklawn Park behind Endorsement, who went on to win the Sunland Derby. In his last start, he succeeded in breaking his maiden, winning a one mile and a sixteenth maiden race by a length and a quarter over Tiz Dangerous. He does appear to be several notches below top three year old form, but he is trained by Tim Ice, who won the Belmont Stakes last year with Summer Bird. Anyway, New Madrid will be ridden by A. Castellano Jr.
Then there is the number seven horse Berberis. The son of Southern Image did not race at two, but began his career on January 3rd in a six furlong maiden race at Fair Grounds. He raced far back for much of the race, but rallied to take second, two lengths behind the winner What's New. In his second start, at a mile and a sixteenth, he stayed closer to the pace, but was caught three wide on both turns and ended up third behind Fast Alex and Elkhorn Creek. However, he was only beaten a length and a quarter for the win, and it came as no surprise when he did break his maiden in his next race. Running a mile and forty yards on a slow track at Fair Grounds, he once again came from far back to win by just under two lengths, defeating Capote Ruler and Elkhorn Creek. Like New Madrid, he would really have to step up to be in the mix tomorrow, but it's possible that he might. He will be ridden for the first time by A. Gryder, and is trained by Steven Asmussen, who trained 2007 Preakness winner Curlin and 2009 Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra.
This brings us to the number eight horse Line of David. The son of Lion Heart has been rather impressive lately, although his only two wins have come on turf. He seems to be improving, and will likely challenge Super Saver for the early lead. His last two races, both wins, have come in wire-to-wire fashion, and he has been keeping some pretty decent company. It is possible that he could contend tomorrow. He will be ridden for the first time by J. Court.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Pulsion. The son of Include had always been a deep closer, that is, until his last race. In the Florida Derby, he broke sharply a set the pace for three quarters of a mile before giving in to Rule, and eventually fading to sixth. However, the pace he set that day was very fast, and he will likely get a slower on today. If he sticks with his new running style, he might just be able to hold off everybody. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani, who rode him for the first time in the Florida Derby.
Those are all of the entries. Now I've just got to put them in the order I think they will finish, which is easier said than done.
After much thought, here are my selections. . .
1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid
It was tough to put them in order, but I'm confident that I got it right. I can't see anybody beating Noble's Promise at this distance, although I will be cheering for Dublin to catch him. As I have said on prior posts, Dublin is my Kentucky Derby pick, but I just don't see him catching Noble's Promise. Super Saver has obvious talent, but like Noble's Promise, has a few stamina questions. I think that Northern Giant is coming back a little fast, and that he may not be quite as good as the others. So my actual pick is Noble's Promise, but I will be cheering for Dublin and Northern Giant.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although I am running out of time, I'll take a minute to mention a few other interesting races that are being run today.
An interesting field has turned out for the Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. The one mile grade III race for three year old fillies drew the undefeated She'll Be Doggone, as well as stakes placed C C's Pal and Indian Burn. It should be an interesting race, and may affect the outcome of the Kentucky Oaks. She'll Be Doggone looks tough to beat, but I believe that Volare Cantare can give her a run for her money.
Then there is the Instant Racing Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The one mile race for three year old fillies drew an eight horse field, but Tiz Miz Sue has scratched, leaving only seven running. The heavy morning line favorite at even money is Decelerator, who I think deserves to be the favorite. Bell's Shoes and Washington Bridge are expected to be her biggest threats, but I wouldn't ignore Best Reward either.
Finally, there is the nine furlong La Puente Stakes at Santa Anita. On turf for three year olds, the race drew a field of nine horses before Coloursoftheglen scratched, reducing the field to eight. The morning line favorite in this tight race is Fantastic Pick at 7-2. Then there's Ace of Aces at 4-1, Lucky Race at 9-2, and Dream Nettie at 5-1. Personally, I like Runaway Bandido, with his 6-1 morning line odds. I just have this feeling that he is sitting on a big race. Also, at 15-1, El Mirage King is worth a shot. He might just be in the mix.
And that is all. Now I shall quickly recap the races that were run last week, beginning with the Wood Memorial.
RACE RESULTS
The Wood Memorial was supposed to be a close race. Four of the six entries appeared to be very evenly matched. I figured the top four finishers would be separated by about three or four lengths.
Boy was I wrong.
As it turned out, it was all about Eskendereya, who destroyed the field with amazing ease, winning by nine and three quarter lengths. In his dust, Jackson Bend outfought Awesome Act for second, with Schoolyard Dreams, my personal pick, fourth.
So here are the results. . .
1 Eskendereya
2 Jackson Bend
3 Awesome Act
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella
. . . versus my selections.
1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella
As it turns out, Jackson Bend proved to me once again that he is tougher than I thought. He just wouldn't let Awesome Act pass him for the place. Schoolyard Dreams, I'm afraid, just failed to fire the way I thought he would. But congratulations to Eskendereya, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, etc. They now how the probable Kentucky Derby favorite. However, I still don't think that Eskendereya is going to win the Kentucky Derby. I know that I am part of the minority, but I am just not convinced that he is a super horse. We'll see what happens this May.
Now I turn my attention to the Santa Anita Derby, and the disaster that happened there.
The race was anything but free of traffic. The winner was Sidney's Candy, who definitely ran a winning race. He won by four and a half lengths, with Setsuko and Lookin at Lucky in second and third. But the latter had a nightmare trip which was quite possibly the worst I have ever seen.
First, he had trouble at the start. He was squeezed coming down the homestretch for the first time, squeezed one or two times after that, but the real disaster was on the final turn. Who's Up, under Victor Espinoza, came in on Lookin at Lucky and caused Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky's jockey, to pull the colt up sharply. For most horses, it would have been a disaster, and it might have caused a fall. But despite dropping back considerably and losing all of his momentum, Lookin at Lucky still re-rallied in between horses and got up in time to save third. Caracortado, who was directly behind Lookin at Lucky when the latter stumbled, was forced to back up and circle the entire field. While doing so, Setsuko took his path, forcing Caracortado to alter course once again. Still, he managed to rally for fourth. There was a steward's inquiry about the incident on the final turn, but no changes were made to the final order of finish.
So here are the final results. . .
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Setsuko
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Caracortado
5 Skipshot
6 Alphie's Bet
7 Thomas Baines
8 Posse Power
9 Who's Up
10 Cardiff Giant
. . . versus my selections.
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines
So, I was wrong about just about everything. It's hard to say if I would have been closer had the race been run cleanly, but the fact is, it wasn't. After the race, it was announced that Garrett Gomez had punched Victor Espinoza, possibly more than once, for causing the incident on the far turn. One thing led to another and Victor Espinoza was suspended for three days and Garrett Gomez received a $750 fine. I won't type out everything that happened, but it sounded wild.
Now I shall quickly discuss the Illinois Derby.
The five hundred thousand dollar race, grade III this year rather than grade II, had drawn what I thought was a very evenly matched field, but at the wire only two mattered. They were American Lion amd Yawanna Twist. They were eleven and one quarter lengths in front of the other six runners, obviously the best.
The winner was American Lion. The son of Tiznow had been running rather poorly out in California on the synthetic tracks, but came east to try dirt for the first time. He responded with a wire-to-wire victory. Yawanna Twist, who was never worse than third through out, made a run at him turning for him and as the hit the top of the stretch it looked like he was going to go right by. But American Lion proved tough and turned him away before drawing off to a two and three quarter length victory. Backtalk finished third, a neck in front of Turf Melody.
So here are the final results. . .
1 American Lion
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Backtalk
4 Turf Melody
5 Dave in Dixie
6 Boulder Creek
7 Stephen's Got Hope
8 Game Ball
. . . versus my selections.
1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek
I was close, but not quite on. It is obvious to me that Backtalk's workout did him in, for he ran like a tired horse. I expect him to rebound nicely in his next race, which might just be the Kentucky Derby. As for American Lion, congratulations. Some have made note of his poor final time (1:51 1/5 for a mile and an eighth) but I heard that they were running into a stiff wind, which undoubtedly slowed them down a bit.
So, it was a good race. Now let's take a look at some of the smaller races that were run over the last week.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin, there was the Bay Shore Stakes. The seven furlong race for three year olds at Aqueduct drew Eightyfiveinafifty, who was last seen going through the outer rail at the same track while attempting to run in the Whirlaway Stakes. He came back in a big way on the undercard of the Wood Memorial, starting just a bit slowly but racing up to take the lead and never look back. He won by two and a half lengths as the heavy favorite, running his seven furlongs in an excellent 1:21 4/5. His next race will be the Derby Trial Stakes, and should he win there, the Kentucky Derby. Very, very interesting.
Then there was the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. The favorite for the mile and a sixteenth three year old filly race was She Be Wild, champion two year old filly last year, but in the end, she was upset by Evening Jewel and It's Tea Time. The former won in wire-to-wire fashion, just holding off the latter by a neck. It was another three quarters of a length back to She Be Wild. Second choice Negligee, who was making her three year old debut, finished a dull seventh.
I should also mention the Beaumont Stakes, run at Keeneland on the seventh. The about seven furlong race for three year old fillies was won by Franny Freud, who was sent off as the heavy favorite. She won by nearly five lengths, defeating Chantilly Nayla and Diva Delite. All three of them may head to the Kentucky Oaks.
Then there was the nine furlong Providencia Stakes at Santa Anita Park. For three year old fillies, the favorite was In the Slips, but as it turned out, she was upset by City to City and Andina. The formed won the race in off-the-pace fashion, steadily moving up from eighth to defeat Andina by a half length. It was another length back to In the Slips. Cozi Rosie, the slight second choice, finished seventh. City to City may be one to watch in the Kentucky, should she go.
Now I come to a race which may eventually affect the Triple Crown Trail, but if so, not for many months. The race was a four and a half furlong maiden race for two year old fillies at Keeneland, and the winner was Nina Fever, who broke poorly but raced up to take the early lead a never look back. At the top of the stretch, she led by five, and by the time she hit the finish line she was in front by eight. Keeping My Focus rallied for second at 28-1, with Tristanme coming home third. Who knows? Perhaps Nina Fever will become a great filly, and will one day be compared to Zenyatta! But for now, she is the first winner for her sire Borrego. Good job Borrego!
Then there was the seven furlong Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for three year old colts. The winner was Thank U Philippe, a fine colt who I have always been fond of. He won the race in come from behind fashion by a neck, with My Charming Clyde coming in second and Good Lord third. No Shenanigans finished fourth, only a length and a half away from Thank U Philippe. It was another fourteen and a quarter lengths back to the fifth place finisher, Black Diamond Cat. El Wildcat and Bad Medicine trailed.
I should also mention the mile and a sixteenth Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf Stakes for three year old colts. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Thunder Brew, who just held off Gator Tiger for a three quarter length victory. Saint Jude finished another half length back in third, while only a neck in front of Family Foundation. The race was so close that Battle Music, who finished seventh, was only three and three quarter lengths away from the winner! Although I highly doubt that this will affect the outcome of the Triple Crown, you never know where a good horse could come from, so I mention it anyway.
Now we come to the seven furlong Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies Stakes for three year old fillies. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Dash With Ashley, the co-second choice. With a strong bid on the outside, she came from sixth to score a four length victory. Favored Island Time finished second, a head in front of Joanie's Catch. None of the others ever really threatened.
Now I come down to a set of two allowance races, one at Woodbine and one at Keeneland. The first one, at Woodbine, was a five furlong race for three year old colts. The slight favorite was Western Smoke, with Wildcat Frankie the second choice. Wildcat Frankie set the pace for much of the race, and had a length and a half lead as they turned for home, but he was unable to hold off Fastin Bear, who came from last at the after three eighths of a mile to score a three quarter length victory. Wildcat Frankie came home second, with Teton Pass in third. Legal Review finished fourth, and Western Smoke was last of five.
The second allowance race, this one at Keeneland, was a mile and a sixteenth race for three year old colts. A great big field of eleven turned out, with Our Douglas the favorite and Raging Wit the second choice. The race was very unusual, as Raging Wit opened up a twenty length lead after a half mile, which rapidly shrunk to nothing. He ended up seventh. As for Our Douglas, he made a bold move while four wide, but fell a neck short of upset winner Harken Up. Beau Choix, at 10-1, finished third. Worldly, who had been racing in graded stakes races, finished fourth. Becky's Kitten was fifth.
And finally, FINALLY, I come to the last race. That race was the Apple Blossom Handicap. I won't discuss it thoroughly right now, (I intend to write an entire post about it) but for now I will say that the great mare Zenyatta is 16-for-16 and she ran her most impressive race ever today. Wow.
So, that's all I have to say. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
BLUE GRASS STAKES (gr. I) ---- Keeneland, Race 10, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
You have to give credit to this group, they are going to provide us with a spectacular race tomorrow. The field of nine is very evenly matched, and I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone here win. (Okay, I would be surprised if Stately Victor won, but you get the idea.)
The nine furlong race is run at Keeneland, which has always had an interesting surface. Like most synthetic tracks, Keeneland's Polytrack seems to favor turf horses, but Keeneland's surface is just plain unusual. In 2009, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was General Quarters. He ended up tenth in the Derby. In 2008, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was Monba. He finished last. In 2007, it was Dominican who won the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished eleventh in the Derby. In 2006, the Blue Grass winner was Sinister Minister. He ended up sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby.
Of course, the track was odd even when it was dirt. In 2005, Bandini won the Blue Grass by six lengths and was well bet in the Kentucky Derby. He ended up nineteenth.
There seems to be a pattern here. It looks to me like the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes never fires in the Kentucky Derby. But let's take a look at the horses who were beaten in the Blue Grass Stakes. . .
In 2009, Hold Me Back finished second in the Blue Grass. Although he ran twelfth in the Derby, he did return to finish second behind Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird in the Travers Stakes. Finishing fifth in the 2009 Blue Grass was Join in the Dance, who set the pace in that year's Derby before finishing seventh. Finishing seventh in the Blue Grass was Charitable Man, who went on to win the Peter Pan Stakes and finish fourth in the Belmont Stakes.
But wait, it gets better! In 2008, Cowboy Cal finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes. Although he finished well back in Kentucky, he went on to become an excellent grade I winning turf miler. Finishing tenth in that year's Blue Grass was Pyro, who failed to fire in the Kentucky Derby but went on to become a grade I winner.
In 2007, Street Sense lost the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose, but rebounded to win the Kentucky Derby. He then finished second by a nose in the Preakness and went on to win the Jim Dandy and the Travers.
And finally, in 2005, Closing Argument finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes, but returned to run second in the Kentucky Derby, beaten only a half a length at odds of 71-1.
So that's why I'm going to be watching the colts who are beaten tomorrow, as well as the winner. Now that my big statistic analysis is over, let's take a look at the entries.
The number one horse is Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon comes into the Blue Grass off of a desperate nose win in last month's Tampa Bay Derby. Originally, Odysseus was here strictly to prep for the Triple Crown, but now it looks like he is going to need some additional earnings if he is going to make the Kentucky Derby. A top three finish, or perhaps even a top four finish, would be sufficient, but it is possible that he could be kept out of the Derby. The 7-2 morning line second choice will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh and will carry 123 pounds, the same as everybody else.
Then there is the number two horse First Dude. The son of Stephen Got Even ran fifth in last month's Florida Derby, and is returning only three weeks later for one last shot at getting the graded earnings necessary to make the Kentucky Derby. He was beaten by six and a quarter lengths in that race, but has a good shot at running better tomorrow. Four of his five career starts have been on dirt, but it is interesting to note that he has raced at Keeneland before, finishing second in his first start to Chief Counsel, who just finished fourth in the Lane's End Stakes two weeks ago, despite going seven wide turning for home. I believe that First Dude may be a serious sleeper. He will be ridden tomorrow by Ramon Dominguez, who has not ridden him since October last year.
This brings us to the number three horse Stately Victor. The son of Ghostzapper’s morning line odds are 30-1, but he does have Alan Garcia in the saddle. He has been racing in allowance races lately, and not very well. It would be a huge surprise if he was to win, but you never know what might happen. Perhaps he can go wire-to-wire.
Now we come to the number four horse Make Music for Me. I have liked this colt for many months now, and am looking forward to seeing him race tomorrow. The son of Bernstein comes in to the Blue Grass off of a win in the Pasadena Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. It was the colt’s first victory, although he had been running in, and running well, in more than one grade I stakes last year. He will be ridden by Mike Smith.
Then there is the number five horse Codoy. The son of Bernstein finished first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last February before being disqualified for extensive interference. He is the 30-1 morning line longshot, along with Stately Victor. Codoy will be ridden by John Velazquez.
This brings us to the number six horse Pleasant Prince. The son of Indy King is the morning line favorite, and actually didn't intend to run in this race. In his last start, he lost the Florida Derby by a nose. Had he won, he would have been trained up to the Kentucky Derby. But because he has only $162,500 in graded earnings, it looks as though he will be kept out of the Derby unless he picks up some money here tomorrow. It's not going to be great, running three times in six weeks, but it's not as bad as it could be. He has been training very sharply, and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Now we come to the number seven horse Paddy O'Prado. The son of El Prado has not raced since winning the grade III Palm Beach Stakes on March 6th. His run in that race was very impressive, as he raced very close to the lead through excellent fractions before drawing off to win by two and a half, running the mile and an eighth in 1:45 2/5, a very, very good time. Finishing second in that race was Dean's Kitten, who has gone on to win the Lane's End Stakes. Despite the fact that Paddy O'Prado has 10-1 morning line odds, I think that he is one of the major contenders and will definitely be in the mix. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who has won three Kentucky Derbies.
Then there is the number eight horse Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True has not raced since finishing third to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but that is certainly not an effort to be ashamed of. The seven week layoff coming to this race is a bit of a concern, but he should be ready to fire a big one. He has shown that he likes this track, as he fell only a half length short last year of catching Noble's Promise in the grade I Breeders Futurity. With morning line odds of 4-1, he has a big chance at upsetting Pleasant Prince, especially with Garrett Gomez in the saddle.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Interactif. The son of Broken Vow has been very consistent, but has not won a race since the Bourbon Stakes last October. Since then, he has finished a close third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, second in the Hallandale Beach Stakes, and second in the San Felipe Stakes. The latter was his first race on a synthetic track, and he fell only a half length short of catching top Kentucky Derby hopeful Sidney's Candy. Interactif certainly has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, and he has a pedigree that reads dirt, but I think that he is at his best on turf. Anyway, he will be ridden tomorrow by Rafael Bejarano.
So, who do I like? It's tough to pick a favorite. I would love to see every runner win. I will be personally rooting for Odysseus, because I would love to see him in the Kentucky Derby, but here are my selections. . .
1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor
Man, that was tough. The field for this race is incredible. But as much as I like Odysseus, and as much as I like him for the Kentucky Derby, I don't think that he is going to take to the synthetics. I feel the same way about First Dude, even though he has run here before. I can see Paddy O'Prado winning tomorrow, but I just have the suspicion that he isn't going to repeat his Palm Beach Stakes run here tomorrow. I think that this is going to be a Todd Pletcher sweep, with his two colts running one-two, just like Monba and Cowboy Cal did in 2008. I love Make Music for Me, and I have been following his career since last December, but I just don't know if he is good enough to handle this group. So my actual selections: Aikenite and Interactif. Sentimental selections: Odysseus and Make Music for Me.
Now lets move on to the Arkansas Derby.
ARKANSAS DERBY (gr. I) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 9, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
No matter which way you look at it, the Arkansas Derby is going to be one of the best in many years. Not only is the field top class, but it is evenly matched. Nine fabulous colts have turned out for at shot at the $1,000,000 purse. Nine of those colts are winners. Six of them are stakes placed. Four of them are stakes winners. Three of them are graded stakes winners. Two of them are grade I winners. One of them is an Eclipse award finalist. One great field. I would not be surprised at all to see the Kentucky Derby winner emerge from this race. Let's take a closer look at who's running. . .
The number one horse is Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon is the morning line favorite, and has been extremely consistent so far, never finishing worse than fourth in five races. As a matter of fact, he has only finished fourth once, when he was beaten two lengths for all the money in the grade I Champagne Stakes. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a third place finish, beaten only a half a length, in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams. He will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who rode him to his best victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year. He will likely set the pace tomorrow, and will definitely be in the mix. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as Dublin, Noble's Promise, and Uh Oh Bango will carry. All of the other entries will carry 118 pounds.
This brings us to the number two horse Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex won the Hopeful Stakes last year before running poorly in the Champagne Stakes and the Iroquis Stakes. However, it was discovered that he had a breathing problem, which explained his poor showings. It was corrected a few months ago, and since then he has been racing very well, running second to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes and third in the Rebel Stakes behind Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has won thirteen Triple Crown races, and I would love to see him add one more. A win tomorrow would certainly make Dublin one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who has been riding quite well at Oaklawn lately. It is also interesting to note that Dublin was born in April, so he will just be turning three this month. I think we will see a great run from him tomorrow.
Now we come to the morning line second choice, who I believe will be the favorite by the time they get to the gate. The colt is Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been even more consistent than Super Saver, never finishing worse than third in third in seven races. He has won three of those races, and finished second in another three. He would have been the champion two year old male last year had Lookin at Lucky not been around. Noble's Promise has run behind Lookin at Lucky in each of their three meetings. But now he has a chance to emerge from the champion's shadow and prove himself to be Kentucky Derby caliber. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, who I'm sure will get a good run out of him, but Noble's Promise does have stamina issues. He is not bred to get a mile and a quarter and it's possible that a mile and an eighth is out of his range. We'll see what he does tomorrow.
Then there is the number four horse Northern Giant. The son of Giant's Causeway looks bred to go a mile and a quarter, but graded earnings are a concern. Currently sitting with $127,000, he would need to finish first, second, or possibly third to get into the Kentucky Derby. He enters the Arkansas Derby off of a runner up performance to Dean's Kitten in the Lane's End Stakes just two weeks ago. He may be coming back a little quick, but perhaps he can handle it. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, which make him Dublin's stablemate. He will be ridden tomorrow, for the first time, by Victor Espinoza. If the track turns up sloppy tomorrow, (it doesn't look like it will) I don't think anyone can beat him.
This brings us to the number five horse Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit may be just a bit below the top three year old form but has been very consistent, like many of the other horses in this race. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a fourth place finish behind Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, and Dublin in the Rebel Stakes, beaten six and three quarter lengths. However, he has the potential to improve off of that effort, as it was his first start in over three months. He might just surprise everyone and throw in a winning run. He will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan.
Now we come to the number six horse New Madrid. The son of Rock Hard Ten has a very nice pedigree, and has been racing rather well lately. He has only raced three times. In his debut last November at Churchill Downs, he was knocked off stride and failed to threaten while finishing sixth. In his next race, however, he ran quite well, coming four wide to finish second in a maiden race at Oaklawn Park behind Endorsement, who went on to win the Sunland Derby. In his last start, he succeeded in breaking his maiden, winning a one mile and a sixteenth maiden race by a length and a quarter over Tiz Dangerous. He does appear to be several notches below top three year old form, but he is trained by Tim Ice, who won the Belmont Stakes last year with Summer Bird. Anyway, New Madrid will be ridden by A. Castellano Jr.
Then there is the number seven horse Berberis. The son of Southern Image did not race at two, but began his career on January 3rd in a six furlong maiden race at Fair Grounds. He raced far back for much of the race, but rallied to take second, two lengths behind the winner What's New. In his second start, at a mile and a sixteenth, he stayed closer to the pace, but was caught three wide on both turns and ended up third behind Fast Alex and Elkhorn Creek. However, he was only beaten a length and a quarter for the win, and it came as no surprise when he did break his maiden in his next race. Running a mile and forty yards on a slow track at Fair Grounds, he once again came from far back to win by just under two lengths, defeating Capote Ruler and Elkhorn Creek. Like New Madrid, he would really have to step up to be in the mix tomorrow, but it's possible that he might. He will be ridden for the first time by A. Gryder, and is trained by Steven Asmussen, who trained 2007 Preakness winner Curlin and 2009 Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra.
This brings us to the number eight horse Line of David. The son of Lion Heart has been rather impressive lately, although his only two wins have come on turf. He seems to be improving, and will likely challenge Super Saver for the early lead. His last two races, both wins, have come in wire-to-wire fashion, and he has been keeping some pretty decent company. It is possible that he could contend tomorrow. He will be ridden for the first time by J. Court.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Pulsion. The son of Include had always been a deep closer, that is, until his last race. In the Florida Derby, he broke sharply a set the pace for three quarters of a mile before giving in to Rule, and eventually fading to sixth. However, the pace he set that day was very fast, and he will likely get a slower on today. If he sticks with his new running style, he might just be able to hold off everybody. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani, who rode him for the first time in the Florida Derby.
Those are all of the entries. Now I've just got to put them in the order I think they will finish, which is easier said than done.
After much thought, here are my selections. . .
1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid
It was tough to put them in order, but I'm confident that I got it right. I can't see anybody beating Noble's Promise at this distance, although I will be cheering for Dublin to catch him. As I have said on prior posts, Dublin is my Kentucky Derby pick, but I just don't see him catching Noble's Promise. Super Saver has obvious talent, but like Noble's Promise, has a few stamina questions. I think that Northern Giant is coming back a little fast, and that he may not be quite as good as the others. So my actual pick is Noble's Promise, but I will be cheering for Dublin and Northern Giant.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although I am running out of time, I'll take a minute to mention a few other interesting races that are being run today.
An interesting field has turned out for the Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. The one mile grade III race for three year old fillies drew the undefeated She'll Be Doggone, as well as stakes placed C C's Pal and Indian Burn. It should be an interesting race, and may affect the outcome of the Kentucky Oaks. She'll Be Doggone looks tough to beat, but I believe that Volare Cantare can give her a run for her money.
Then there is the Instant Racing Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The one mile race for three year old fillies drew an eight horse field, but Tiz Miz Sue has scratched, leaving only seven running. The heavy morning line favorite at even money is Decelerator, who I think deserves to be the favorite. Bell's Shoes and Washington Bridge are expected to be her biggest threats, but I wouldn't ignore Best Reward either.
Finally, there is the nine furlong La Puente Stakes at Santa Anita. On turf for three year olds, the race drew a field of nine horses before Coloursoftheglen scratched, reducing the field to eight. The morning line favorite in this tight race is Fantastic Pick at 7-2. Then there's Ace of Aces at 4-1, Lucky Race at 9-2, and Dream Nettie at 5-1. Personally, I like Runaway Bandido, with his 6-1 morning line odds. I just have this feeling that he is sitting on a big race. Also, at 15-1, El Mirage King is worth a shot. He might just be in the mix.
And that is all. Now I shall quickly recap the races that were run last week, beginning with the Wood Memorial.
RACE RESULTS
The Wood Memorial was supposed to be a close race. Four of the six entries appeared to be very evenly matched. I figured the top four finishers would be separated by about three or four lengths.
Boy was I wrong.
As it turned out, it was all about Eskendereya, who destroyed the field with amazing ease, winning by nine and three quarter lengths. In his dust, Jackson Bend outfought Awesome Act for second, with Schoolyard Dreams, my personal pick, fourth.
So here are the results. . .
1 Eskendereya
2 Jackson Bend
3 Awesome Act
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella
. . . versus my selections.
1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella
As it turns out, Jackson Bend proved to me once again that he is tougher than I thought. He just wouldn't let Awesome Act pass him for the place. Schoolyard Dreams, I'm afraid, just failed to fire the way I thought he would. But congratulations to Eskendereya, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, etc. They now how the probable Kentucky Derby favorite. However, I still don't think that Eskendereya is going to win the Kentucky Derby. I know that I am part of the minority, but I am just not convinced that he is a super horse. We'll see what happens this May.
Now I turn my attention to the Santa Anita Derby, and the disaster that happened there.
The race was anything but free of traffic. The winner was Sidney's Candy, who definitely ran a winning race. He won by four and a half lengths, with Setsuko and Lookin at Lucky in second and third. But the latter had a nightmare trip which was quite possibly the worst I have ever seen.
First, he had trouble at the start. He was squeezed coming down the homestretch for the first time, squeezed one or two times after that, but the real disaster was on the final turn. Who's Up, under Victor Espinoza, came in on Lookin at Lucky and caused Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky's jockey, to pull the colt up sharply. For most horses, it would have been a disaster, and it might have caused a fall. But despite dropping back considerably and losing all of his momentum, Lookin at Lucky still re-rallied in between horses and got up in time to save third. Caracortado, who was directly behind Lookin at Lucky when the latter stumbled, was forced to back up and circle the entire field. While doing so, Setsuko took his path, forcing Caracortado to alter course once again. Still, he managed to rally for fourth. There was a steward's inquiry about the incident on the final turn, but no changes were made to the final order of finish.
So here are the final results. . .
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Setsuko
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Caracortado
5 Skipshot
6 Alphie's Bet
7 Thomas Baines
8 Posse Power
9 Who's Up
10 Cardiff Giant
. . . versus my selections.
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines
So, I was wrong about just about everything. It's hard to say if I would have been closer had the race been run cleanly, but the fact is, it wasn't. After the race, it was announced that Garrett Gomez had punched Victor Espinoza, possibly more than once, for causing the incident on the far turn. One thing led to another and Victor Espinoza was suspended for three days and Garrett Gomez received a $750 fine. I won't type out everything that happened, but it sounded wild.
Now I shall quickly discuss the Illinois Derby.
The five hundred thousand dollar race, grade III this year rather than grade II, had drawn what I thought was a very evenly matched field, but at the wire only two mattered. They were American Lion amd Yawanna Twist. They were eleven and one quarter lengths in front of the other six runners, obviously the best.
The winner was American Lion. The son of Tiznow had been running rather poorly out in California on the synthetic tracks, but came east to try dirt for the first time. He responded with a wire-to-wire victory. Yawanna Twist, who was never worse than third through out, made a run at him turning for him and as the hit the top of the stretch it looked like he was going to go right by. But American Lion proved tough and turned him away before drawing off to a two and three quarter length victory. Backtalk finished third, a neck in front of Turf Melody.
So here are the final results. . .
1 American Lion
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Backtalk
4 Turf Melody
5 Dave in Dixie
6 Boulder Creek
7 Stephen's Got Hope
8 Game Ball
. . . versus my selections.
1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek
I was close, but not quite on. It is obvious to me that Backtalk's workout did him in, for he ran like a tired horse. I expect him to rebound nicely in his next race, which might just be the Kentucky Derby. As for American Lion, congratulations. Some have made note of his poor final time (1:51 1/5 for a mile and an eighth) but I heard that they were running into a stiff wind, which undoubtedly slowed them down a bit.
So, it was a good race. Now let's take a look at some of the smaller races that were run over the last week.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin, there was the Bay Shore Stakes. The seven furlong race for three year olds at Aqueduct drew Eightyfiveinafifty, who was last seen going through the outer rail at the same track while attempting to run in the Whirlaway Stakes. He came back in a big way on the undercard of the Wood Memorial, starting just a bit slowly but racing up to take the lead and never look back. He won by two and a half lengths as the heavy favorite, running his seven furlongs in an excellent 1:21 4/5. His next race will be the Derby Trial Stakes, and should he win there, the Kentucky Derby. Very, very interesting.
Then there was the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. The favorite for the mile and a sixteenth three year old filly race was She Be Wild, champion two year old filly last year, but in the end, she was upset by Evening Jewel and It's Tea Time. The former won in wire-to-wire fashion, just holding off the latter by a neck. It was another three quarters of a length back to She Be Wild. Second choice Negligee, who was making her three year old debut, finished a dull seventh.
I should also mention the Beaumont Stakes, run at Keeneland on the seventh. The about seven furlong race for three year old fillies was won by Franny Freud, who was sent off as the heavy favorite. She won by nearly five lengths, defeating Chantilly Nayla and Diva Delite. All three of them may head to the Kentucky Oaks.
Then there was the nine furlong Providencia Stakes at Santa Anita Park. For three year old fillies, the favorite was In the Slips, but as it turned out, she was upset by City to City and Andina. The formed won the race in off-the-pace fashion, steadily moving up from eighth to defeat Andina by a half length. It was another length back to In the Slips. Cozi Rosie, the slight second choice, finished seventh. City to City may be one to watch in the Kentucky, should she go.
Now I come to a race which may eventually affect the Triple Crown Trail, but if so, not for many months. The race was a four and a half furlong maiden race for two year old fillies at Keeneland, and the winner was Nina Fever, who broke poorly but raced up to take the early lead a never look back. At the top of the stretch, she led by five, and by the time she hit the finish line she was in front by eight. Keeping My Focus rallied for second at 28-1, with Tristanme coming home third. Who knows? Perhaps Nina Fever will become a great filly, and will one day be compared to Zenyatta! But for now, she is the first winner for her sire Borrego. Good job Borrego!
Then there was the seven furlong Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for three year old colts. The winner was Thank U Philippe, a fine colt who I have always been fond of. He won the race in come from behind fashion by a neck, with My Charming Clyde coming in second and Good Lord third. No Shenanigans finished fourth, only a length and a half away from Thank U Philippe. It was another fourteen and a quarter lengths back to the fifth place finisher, Black Diamond Cat. El Wildcat and Bad Medicine trailed.
I should also mention the mile and a sixteenth Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf Stakes for three year old colts. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Thunder Brew, who just held off Gator Tiger for a three quarter length victory. Saint Jude finished another half length back in third, while only a neck in front of Family Foundation. The race was so close that Battle Music, who finished seventh, was only three and three quarter lengths away from the winner! Although I highly doubt that this will affect the outcome of the Triple Crown, you never know where a good horse could come from, so I mention it anyway.
Now we come to the seven furlong Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies Stakes for three year old fillies. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Dash With Ashley, the co-second choice. With a strong bid on the outside, she came from sixth to score a four length victory. Favored Island Time finished second, a head in front of Joanie's Catch. None of the others ever really threatened.
Now I come down to a set of two allowance races, one at Woodbine and one at Keeneland. The first one, at Woodbine, was a five furlong race for three year old colts. The slight favorite was Western Smoke, with Wildcat Frankie the second choice. Wildcat Frankie set the pace for much of the race, and had a length and a half lead as they turned for home, but he was unable to hold off Fastin Bear, who came from last at the after three eighths of a mile to score a three quarter length victory. Wildcat Frankie came home second, with Teton Pass in third. Legal Review finished fourth, and Western Smoke was last of five.
The second allowance race, this one at Keeneland, was a mile and a sixteenth race for three year old colts. A great big field of eleven turned out, with Our Douglas the favorite and Raging Wit the second choice. The race was very unusual, as Raging Wit opened up a twenty length lead after a half mile, which rapidly shrunk to nothing. He ended up seventh. As for Our Douglas, he made a bold move while four wide, but fell a neck short of upset winner Harken Up. Beau Choix, at 10-1, finished third. Worldly, who had been racing in graded stakes races, finished fourth. Becky's Kitten was fifth.
And finally, FINALLY, I come to the last race. That race was the Apple Blossom Handicap. I won't discuss it thoroughly right now, (I intend to write an entire post about it) but for now I will say that the great mare Zenyatta is 16-for-16 and she ran her most impressive race ever today. Wow.
So, that's all I have to say. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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