I'll Have Another stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) four weeks from today when he defeated heavily favored Creative Cause by a nose in the 76th running of the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) this afternoon at Santa Anita Park.
Ridden to victory by Mario Gutierrez, I'll Have Another settled into the second position early on as 40-1 shot Blueskiesnrainbows set a good pace of :23.11 and :47.11. Senor Rain was racing in third on the outside, followed along the rail by Longview Drive. Paynter and Creative Cause were next, while Liaison, Midnight Transfer, and Brother Francis were the earlier trailers.
Showing posts with label Santa Anita Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Santa Anita Derby. Show all posts
Saturday, April 07, 2012
Wednesday, April 04, 2012
Santa Anita Derby Entries and Post Positions
Here are the entries and post positions for the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Santa Anita Park. One of the biggest and most prestigious prep races for the $2,000,000 Kentucky Derby (gr. I), the nine-furlong Santa Anita Derby has drawn a large and talented field of ten, including San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) stakes winner Creative Cause, Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) winner I'll Have Another, and CashCall Futurity Stakes (gr. I) winner Liaison.
1 Creative Cause
2 Liaison
3 Holy Candy
1 Creative Cause
2 Liaison
3 Holy Candy
Saturday, April 09, 2011
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE WINS THE SANTA ANITA DERBY!
Midnight Interlude pulled off a 13-1 upset in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) tonight at Santa Anita Park, rallying strongly in deep stretch to catch Comma to the Top in the final strides.
Ridden by Victor Espinoza, Midnight Interlude was parked very wide throughout the race as Comma to the Top set a reasonable pace up front. Offlee Wild Boys was second along the rail, with Silver Medallion sitting third. Midnight Interlude was fourth, followed by Indian Winter, Mr. Commons, Quail Hill, Anthony's Cross, and Bench Points trailing the field.
Turning for home, Comma to the Top kicked clear from the field and looked like a winner at the top of the stretch. But Midnight Interlude, at 13-1, was rallying on the far outside. Despite having to check just a bit behind Comma to the Top as that one drifted outward in the stretch, Midnight Interlude came home gamely to win the race by a head in 1:48.66.
Mr. Commons came on well to finish third, with Silver Medallion finishing fourth.
The winner is trained by Bob Baffert, who was winning his sixth Santa Anita Derby.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Victor Espinoza, Midnight Interlude was parked very wide throughout the race as Comma to the Top set a reasonable pace up front. Offlee Wild Boys was second along the rail, with Silver Medallion sitting third. Midnight Interlude was fourth, followed by Indian Winter, Mr. Commons, Quail Hill, Anthony's Cross, and Bench Points trailing the field.
Turning for home, Comma to the Top kicked clear from the field and looked like a winner at the top of the stretch. But Midnight Interlude, at 13-1, was rallying on the far outside. Despite having to check just a bit behind Comma to the Top as that one drifted outward in the stretch, Midnight Interlude came home gamely to win the race by a head in 1:48.66.
Mr. Commons came on well to finish third, with Silver Medallion finishing fourth.
The winner is trained by Bob Baffert, who was winning his sixth Santa Anita Derby.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- April 9th, 2011
There is an unbelievable amount of racing action for three-year-olds this weekend. The Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Wood Memorial (gr. I), Ashland Stakes (gr. I), Fantasy Stakes (gr. II), and Illinois Derby (gr. III) are among the races which will have a major influence on the Triple Crown and Kentucky Oaks. Picking a feature race is next to impossible, but I finally settled on the Santa Anita Derby.
FEATURE RACE: The Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
Santa Anita Park/Main Track/Nine Furlongs/$1,000,000 Purse
The 74th running of the grade I Santa Anita Derby has lost some luster over the last few days after it was announced that both Premier Pegasus and Jaycito would not be running. Premier Pegasus, one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders, is off the trail due to a hairline fracture of a cannon bone. Jaycito is suffering from a minor foot bruise which will cause him to miss the race. These scratches have left the field with only nine runners.
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse
1 Offlee Wild Boys
2 Indian Winter
3 Mr. Commons
4 Silver Medallion
5 Comma to the Top
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Quail Hill
8 Premier Pegasus
9 Anthony’s Cross
10 Bench Points
11 Jaycito
All will carry 122 pounds.
Drawing the rail is Offlee Wild Boys. One of the more heavily-raced horses in the field, the son of Offlee Wild has made twelve starts in a career that has spanned five different race tracks, four different surfaces, and distances from 4-1/2 furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth. Trained by Steven Miyadi, the gelding has won four times thus far, and enters the Santa Anita Derby off of two consecutive victories in route races at Golden Gate Fields. He has shown some decent early speed in the past, and is going to have to use it if he doesn’t want to be trapped along the inside. Joseph Talamo has the mount.
In gate two is Indian Winter, a grade I-placed son of Indian Charlie. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the colt broke his maiden going six furlongs at Del Mar last August. He then finished in a dead-heat for third in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) behind J P’s Gusto and Jaycito. Given a bit of a break, he returned to the races in the San Pedro Stakes on January 17th at Santa Anita, where he closed desperately to win the 6-1/2 furlong race by a half-length. However, in the Turf Paradise Derby, his two-turn debut, he finished third beaten four lengths by Beer Meister. However, due to a disqualification of the second-place finisher, Indian Winter was placed second. Interestingly, that second-place finisher was Twice the Appeal, who came back to win the Sunland Derby (gr. III) in impressive fashion. Time will tell if Indian Winter can be successful around two turns, but I think that he is a live longshot here. Patrick Valenzuela will ride.
Mr. Commons is the next horse. A son of Artie Schiller, the promising colt is trained by John Shirreffs and will be ridden by Mike Smith, the same pair that teamed up to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacamo, the 2007 Santa Anita Derby with Tiago, and sixteen prestigious stakes’ races with the incredible Zenyatta. Mr. Commons finished sixth in his debut over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. His next start came on the 6-1/2 furlong downhill turf course at Santa Anita, where at 6-1 he drew clear of his rivals to win the race by 5 ½ lengths. His third start proved that he could succeed around two turns, for in a one-mile allowance race over the main track at Santa Anita, the colt defeated Hollywood Heist and Chiloquin in a three-way photo finish. The final time was a sharp 1:34 4/5. Time will tell if he has the talent to defeat a field of this caliber, but I believe that he is capable of doing it.
Silver Medallion is the fourth horse in the field. A son of Badge of Silver, he had been competing with mild success on turf, performing well enough to win the one-mile Eddie Logan Stakes over that surface at Santa Anita by a half-length. However, he ran the best race of his life in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) over Golden Gate’s Tapeta surface, wearing down Comma to the Top and Jakesam to win the mile and an eighth race by 1 ¼ lengths. Although this will be his first start on dirt, he certainly looks capable of succeeding over the surface based on his recent superb workouts at Santa Anita. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the colt will be ridden by Garrett Gomez.
This brings us to Comma to the Top, the only grade I winner that remains in the field. He is one of the veterans in the field, with twelve starts under his belt already. Trained by Peter Miller, the gelded son of Bwana Charlie got very good late last year, sweeping to five consecutive victories from October to December, culminating with a stunning triumph in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) over J P’s Gusto, Clubhouse Ride, and Gourmet Dinner. However, his two starts in 2011 have yielded a pair of fourth place finishes in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) and the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II). However, in the San Felipe, he helped set a blazing pace of :21 3/5 and :44 2/5. Understandably, he tired in the stretch to finish fourth, but he was beaten only 1 ¾ lengths for second. With less early speed in today’s race, he could get a much better trip and rebound with a sharp win. Corey Nakatani has the mount.
Midnight Interlude is the next horse. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of War Chant has never competed in anything other than maiden special weight races, but will attempt to become Baffert’s sixth Santa Anita Derby winner. The colt ran third in his debut at Santa Anita going six furlongs, then ran second in a one-mile event. He broke his maiden last time out, drawing away under Joel Rosario to win a one-mile event by 8 ½ lengths. Like Mr. Commons, he must still prove that he can compete at this level of competition, but he looks very talented. Victor Espinoza will ride.
Quail Hill has drawn gate seven. One of the longer shots in the field, the son of Candy Ride required four starts to break his maiden, finally doing so while going six furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita. His next start came in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, where he was sent off at 68.60-1. Despite these extremely long odds, he rallied well to finish third, beaten 4 ¼ lengths. I would have thought that this performance would drop his odds in his next start, but in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) he was sent off at 76.10-1. In a ten horse field, he finished a distant fifth but was not too far out of second. I believe that he could potentially hit the board at a huge price.
Skipping over Premier Pegasus, we come to Anthony’s Cross. A son of Indian Charlie, the colt lost his first three races at a variety of distances and surfaces before winning a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 2 ½ lengths. His next start came in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), where he finished a distant third behind Tapizar and Clubhouse Ride. In his next start, the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes, the addition of blinkers enabled Anthony’s Cross to turn in a vastly superior performance to his previous efforts, holding off Riveting Reason to win the race by a nose in 1:48 3/5. He has been working brilliantly for this race, with his most recent breeze being five furlongs in :59 1/5. If he is not fit and ready to run his best race, I don’t know why not. Trained by Eoin Harty, leading rider of the meet Joel Rosario has the mount.
Finally, we come to Bench Points, a horse that I think is a bit overlooked here. A gelded son of Benchmark, he is trained by the little-known trainer Tim Yakteen. He won his first four starts sprinting, including a pair of state-restricted stakes races at Del Mar last summer. In his 2011 debut, he rallied furiously to defeat heavy favorite Da Ruler in a six furlong allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park. Tried in a route race for the first time, he rallied late in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) to finish third, beaten just 1 ¼ lengths for second. With top rider Rafael Bejarano in the saddle, I believe that this colt is capable of winning impressively.
After a great deal of thought, my picks for this race are:
1 Silver Medallion
2 Bench Points
3 Mr. Commons
4 Comma to the Top
5 Anthony’s Cross
6 Indian Winter
7 Quail Hill
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Offlee Wild Boys
This race is very difficult to handicap indeed, and I really hate to place Anthony’s Cross and Indian Winter as low as I did. But I’m confident that Silver Medallion is capable of winning this race and launching himself to the top of the Kentucky Derby picture.
J.R.’s picks are a bit different. He feels that Comma to the Top will get an easy lead and kick away at the top of the stretch to win the race by several lengths. He does not like Bench Point’s chances, as he considers him to be nothing more than a sprinter.
His picks are:
1 Comma to the Top
2 Anthony’s Cross
3 Silver Medallion
4 Quail Hill
5 Mr. Commons
6 Indian Winter
7 Bench Points
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Offlee Wild Boys
J.R. is going to have to do some serious handicapping this weekend in order to make up some ground in the standings of our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, in which I have a large lead. We’ll see what happens!
You can watch the Santa Anita Derby at www.drf.com. Here’s the link:
http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-derby-day?utm_source=DRF.com&utm_medium=Special%2BCoverage&utm_campaign=Santa%2BAnita%2BDerby
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Unlike in past posts, I will not be posting my thoughts on the other great races here in this short section of an already lengthy post. They deserve better than that! Instead, I shall be posting my thoughts and picks throughout the day, as well as posting the results of the races as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE: The Santa Anita Derby (gr. I)
Santa Anita Park/Main Track/Nine Furlongs/$1,000,000 Purse
The 74th running of the grade I Santa Anita Derby has lost some luster over the last few days after it was announced that both Premier Pegasus and Jaycito would not be running. Premier Pegasus, one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders, is off the trail due to a hairline fracture of a cannon bone. Jaycito is suffering from a minor foot bruise which will cause him to miss the race. These scratches have left the field with only nine runners.
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse
1 Offlee Wild Boys
2 Indian Winter
3 Mr. Commons
4 Silver Medallion
5 Comma to the Top
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Quail Hill
8 Premier Pegasus
9 Anthony’s Cross
10 Bench Points
11 Jaycito
All will carry 122 pounds.
Drawing the rail is Offlee Wild Boys. One of the more heavily-raced horses in the field, the son of Offlee Wild has made twelve starts in a career that has spanned five different race tracks, four different surfaces, and distances from 4-1/2 furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth. Trained by Steven Miyadi, the gelding has won four times thus far, and enters the Santa Anita Derby off of two consecutive victories in route races at Golden Gate Fields. He has shown some decent early speed in the past, and is going to have to use it if he doesn’t want to be trapped along the inside. Joseph Talamo has the mount.
In gate two is Indian Winter, a grade I-placed son of Indian Charlie. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, the colt broke his maiden going six furlongs at Del Mar last August. He then finished in a dead-heat for third in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) behind J P’s Gusto and Jaycito. Given a bit of a break, he returned to the races in the San Pedro Stakes on January 17th at Santa Anita, where he closed desperately to win the 6-1/2 furlong race by a half-length. However, in the Turf Paradise Derby, his two-turn debut, he finished third beaten four lengths by Beer Meister. However, due to a disqualification of the second-place finisher, Indian Winter was placed second. Interestingly, that second-place finisher was Twice the Appeal, who came back to win the Sunland Derby (gr. III) in impressive fashion. Time will tell if Indian Winter can be successful around two turns, but I think that he is a live longshot here. Patrick Valenzuela will ride.
Mr. Commons is the next horse. A son of Artie Schiller, the promising colt is trained by John Shirreffs and will be ridden by Mike Smith, the same pair that teamed up to win the 2005 Kentucky Derby with Giacamo, the 2007 Santa Anita Derby with Tiago, and sixteen prestigious stakes’ races with the incredible Zenyatta. Mr. Commons finished sixth in his debut over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. His next start came on the 6-1/2 furlong downhill turf course at Santa Anita, where at 6-1 he drew clear of his rivals to win the race by 5 ½ lengths. His third start proved that he could succeed around two turns, for in a one-mile allowance race over the main track at Santa Anita, the colt defeated Hollywood Heist and Chiloquin in a three-way photo finish. The final time was a sharp 1:34 4/5. Time will tell if he has the talent to defeat a field of this caliber, but I believe that he is capable of doing it.
Silver Medallion is the fourth horse in the field. A son of Badge of Silver, he had been competing with mild success on turf, performing well enough to win the one-mile Eddie Logan Stakes over that surface at Santa Anita by a half-length. However, he ran the best race of his life in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) over Golden Gate’s Tapeta surface, wearing down Comma to the Top and Jakesam to win the mile and an eighth race by 1 ¼ lengths. Although this will be his first start on dirt, he certainly looks capable of succeeding over the surface based on his recent superb workouts at Santa Anita. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the colt will be ridden by Garrett Gomez.
This brings us to Comma to the Top, the only grade I winner that remains in the field. He is one of the veterans in the field, with twelve starts under his belt already. Trained by Peter Miller, the gelded son of Bwana Charlie got very good late last year, sweeping to five consecutive victories from October to December, culminating with a stunning triumph in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) over J P’s Gusto, Clubhouse Ride, and Gourmet Dinner. However, his two starts in 2011 have yielded a pair of fourth place finishes in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) and the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II). However, in the San Felipe, he helped set a blazing pace of :21 3/5 and :44 2/5. Understandably, he tired in the stretch to finish fourth, but he was beaten only 1 ¾ lengths for second. With less early speed in today’s race, he could get a much better trip and rebound with a sharp win. Corey Nakatani has the mount.
Midnight Interlude is the next horse. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of War Chant has never competed in anything other than maiden special weight races, but will attempt to become Baffert’s sixth Santa Anita Derby winner. The colt ran third in his debut at Santa Anita going six furlongs, then ran second in a one-mile event. He broke his maiden last time out, drawing away under Joel Rosario to win a one-mile event by 8 ½ lengths. Like Mr. Commons, he must still prove that he can compete at this level of competition, but he looks very talented. Victor Espinoza will ride.
Quail Hill has drawn gate seven. One of the longer shots in the field, the son of Candy Ride required four starts to break his maiden, finally doing so while going six furlongs on the turf at Santa Anita. His next start came in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, where he was sent off at 68.60-1. Despite these extremely long odds, he rallied well to finish third, beaten 4 ¼ lengths. I would have thought that this performance would drop his odds in his next start, but in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) he was sent off at 76.10-1. In a ten horse field, he finished a distant fifth but was not too far out of second. I believe that he could potentially hit the board at a huge price.
Skipping over Premier Pegasus, we come to Anthony’s Cross. A son of Indian Charlie, the colt lost his first three races at a variety of distances and surfaces before winning a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by 2 ½ lengths. His next start came in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), where he finished a distant third behind Tapizar and Clubhouse Ride. In his next start, the grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes, the addition of blinkers enabled Anthony’s Cross to turn in a vastly superior performance to his previous efforts, holding off Riveting Reason to win the race by a nose in 1:48 3/5. He has been working brilliantly for this race, with his most recent breeze being five furlongs in :59 1/5. If he is not fit and ready to run his best race, I don’t know why not. Trained by Eoin Harty, leading rider of the meet Joel Rosario has the mount.
Finally, we come to Bench Points, a horse that I think is a bit overlooked here. A gelded son of Benchmark, he is trained by the little-known trainer Tim Yakteen. He won his first four starts sprinting, including a pair of state-restricted stakes races at Del Mar last summer. In his 2011 debut, he rallied furiously to defeat heavy favorite Da Ruler in a six furlong allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita Park. Tried in a route race for the first time, he rallied late in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) to finish third, beaten just 1 ¼ lengths for second. With top rider Rafael Bejarano in the saddle, I believe that this colt is capable of winning impressively.
After a great deal of thought, my picks for this race are:
1 Silver Medallion
2 Bench Points
3 Mr. Commons
4 Comma to the Top
5 Anthony’s Cross
6 Indian Winter
7 Quail Hill
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Offlee Wild Boys
This race is very difficult to handicap indeed, and I really hate to place Anthony’s Cross and Indian Winter as low as I did. But I’m confident that Silver Medallion is capable of winning this race and launching himself to the top of the Kentucky Derby picture.
J.R.’s picks are a bit different. He feels that Comma to the Top will get an easy lead and kick away at the top of the stretch to win the race by several lengths. He does not like Bench Point’s chances, as he considers him to be nothing more than a sprinter.
His picks are:
1 Comma to the Top
2 Anthony’s Cross
3 Silver Medallion
4 Quail Hill
5 Mr. Commons
6 Indian Winter
7 Bench Points
8 Midnight Interlude
9 Offlee Wild Boys
J.R. is going to have to do some serious handicapping this weekend in order to make up some ground in the standings of our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest, in which I have a large lead. We’ll see what happens!
You can watch the Santa Anita Derby at www.drf.com. Here’s the link:
http://www.drf.com/news/santa-anita-derby-day?utm_source=DRF.com&utm_medium=Special%2BCoverage&utm_campaign=Santa%2BAnita%2BDerby
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Unlike in past posts, I will not be posting my thoughts on the other great races here in this short section of an already lengthy post. They deserve better than that! Instead, I shall be posting my thoughts and picks throughout the day, as well as posting the results of the races as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Saturday, April 10, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 9th, 2010
I can hardly believe that it is just three weeks until the Kentucky Derby. The final major prep races are being run tomorrow, and some tough fields have turned out to compete for their spot in the Kentucky Derby. I suspect that we will see some great performances by top horses tomorrow, as well as some surprises. It's going to be a great set of races. Let's begin by looking over the Blue Grass Stakes.
BLUE GRASS STAKES (gr. I) ---- Keeneland, Race 10, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
You have to give credit to this group, they are going to provide us with a spectacular race tomorrow. The field of nine is very evenly matched, and I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone here win. (Okay, I would be surprised if Stately Victor won, but you get the idea.)
The nine furlong race is run at Keeneland, which has always had an interesting surface. Like most synthetic tracks, Keeneland's Polytrack seems to favor turf horses, but Keeneland's surface is just plain unusual. In 2009, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was General Quarters. He ended up tenth in the Derby. In 2008, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was Monba. He finished last. In 2007, it was Dominican who won the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished eleventh in the Derby. In 2006, the Blue Grass winner was Sinister Minister. He ended up sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby.
Of course, the track was odd even when it was dirt. In 2005, Bandini won the Blue Grass by six lengths and was well bet in the Kentucky Derby. He ended up nineteenth.
There seems to be a pattern here. It looks to me like the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes never fires in the Kentucky Derby. But let's take a look at the horses who were beaten in the Blue Grass Stakes. . .
In 2009, Hold Me Back finished second in the Blue Grass. Although he ran twelfth in the Derby, he did return to finish second behind Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird in the Travers Stakes. Finishing fifth in the 2009 Blue Grass was Join in the Dance, who set the pace in that year's Derby before finishing seventh. Finishing seventh in the Blue Grass was Charitable Man, who went on to win the Peter Pan Stakes and finish fourth in the Belmont Stakes.
But wait, it gets better! In 2008, Cowboy Cal finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes. Although he finished well back in Kentucky, he went on to become an excellent grade I winning turf miler. Finishing tenth in that year's Blue Grass was Pyro, who failed to fire in the Kentucky Derby but went on to become a grade I winner.
In 2007, Street Sense lost the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose, but rebounded to win the Kentucky Derby. He then finished second by a nose in the Preakness and went on to win the Jim Dandy and the Travers.
And finally, in 2005, Closing Argument finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes, but returned to run second in the Kentucky Derby, beaten only a half a length at odds of 71-1.
So that's why I'm going to be watching the colts who are beaten tomorrow, as well as the winner. Now that my big statistic analysis is over, let's take a look at the entries.
The number one horse is Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon comes into the Blue Grass off of a desperate nose win in last month's Tampa Bay Derby. Originally, Odysseus was here strictly to prep for the Triple Crown, but now it looks like he is going to need some additional earnings if he is going to make the Kentucky Derby. A top three finish, or perhaps even a top four finish, would be sufficient, but it is possible that he could be kept out of the Derby. The 7-2 morning line second choice will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh and will carry 123 pounds, the same as everybody else.
Then there is the number two horse First Dude. The son of Stephen Got Even ran fifth in last month's Florida Derby, and is returning only three weeks later for one last shot at getting the graded earnings necessary to make the Kentucky Derby. He was beaten by six and a quarter lengths in that race, but has a good shot at running better tomorrow. Four of his five career starts have been on dirt, but it is interesting to note that he has raced at Keeneland before, finishing second in his first start to Chief Counsel, who just finished fourth in the Lane's End Stakes two weeks ago, despite going seven wide turning for home. I believe that First Dude may be a serious sleeper. He will be ridden tomorrow by Ramon Dominguez, who has not ridden him since October last year.
This brings us to the number three horse Stately Victor. The son of Ghostzapper’s morning line odds are 30-1, but he does have Alan Garcia in the saddle. He has been racing in allowance races lately, and not very well. It would be a huge surprise if he was to win, but you never know what might happen. Perhaps he can go wire-to-wire.
Now we come to the number four horse Make Music for Me. I have liked this colt for many months now, and am looking forward to seeing him race tomorrow. The son of Bernstein comes in to the Blue Grass off of a win in the Pasadena Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. It was the colt’s first victory, although he had been running in, and running well, in more than one grade I stakes last year. He will be ridden by Mike Smith.
Then there is the number five horse Codoy. The son of Bernstein finished first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last February before being disqualified for extensive interference. He is the 30-1 morning line longshot, along with Stately Victor. Codoy will be ridden by John Velazquez.
This brings us to the number six horse Pleasant Prince. The son of Indy King is the morning line favorite, and actually didn't intend to run in this race. In his last start, he lost the Florida Derby by a nose. Had he won, he would have been trained up to the Kentucky Derby. But because he has only $162,500 in graded earnings, it looks as though he will be kept out of the Derby unless he picks up some money here tomorrow. It's not going to be great, running three times in six weeks, but it's not as bad as it could be. He has been training very sharply, and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Now we come to the number seven horse Paddy O'Prado. The son of El Prado has not raced since winning the grade III Palm Beach Stakes on March 6th. His run in that race was very impressive, as he raced very close to the lead through excellent fractions before drawing off to win by two and a half, running the mile and an eighth in 1:45 2/5, a very, very good time. Finishing second in that race was Dean's Kitten, who has gone on to win the Lane's End Stakes. Despite the fact that Paddy O'Prado has 10-1 morning line odds, I think that he is one of the major contenders and will definitely be in the mix. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who has won three Kentucky Derbies.
Then there is the number eight horse Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True has not raced since finishing third to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but that is certainly not an effort to be ashamed of. The seven week layoff coming to this race is a bit of a concern, but he should be ready to fire a big one. He has shown that he likes this track, as he fell only a half length short last year of catching Noble's Promise in the grade I Breeders Futurity. With morning line odds of 4-1, he has a big chance at upsetting Pleasant Prince, especially with Garrett Gomez in the saddle.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Interactif. The son of Broken Vow has been very consistent, but has not won a race since the Bourbon Stakes last October. Since then, he has finished a close third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, second in the Hallandale Beach Stakes, and second in the San Felipe Stakes. The latter was his first race on a synthetic track, and he fell only a half length short of catching top Kentucky Derby hopeful Sidney's Candy. Interactif certainly has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, and he has a pedigree that reads dirt, but I think that he is at his best on turf. Anyway, he will be ridden tomorrow by Rafael Bejarano.
So, who do I like? It's tough to pick a favorite. I would love to see every runner win. I will be personally rooting for Odysseus, because I would love to see him in the Kentucky Derby, but here are my selections. . .
1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor
Man, that was tough. The field for this race is incredible. But as much as I like Odysseus, and as much as I like him for the Kentucky Derby, I don't think that he is going to take to the synthetics. I feel the same way about First Dude, even though he has run here before. I can see Paddy O'Prado winning tomorrow, but I just have the suspicion that he isn't going to repeat his Palm Beach Stakes run here tomorrow. I think that this is going to be a Todd Pletcher sweep, with his two colts running one-two, just like Monba and Cowboy Cal did in 2008. I love Make Music for Me, and I have been following his career since last December, but I just don't know if he is good enough to handle this group. So my actual selections: Aikenite and Interactif. Sentimental selections: Odysseus and Make Music for Me.
Now lets move on to the Arkansas Derby.
ARKANSAS DERBY (gr. I) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 9, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
No matter which way you look at it, the Arkansas Derby is going to be one of the best in many years. Not only is the field top class, but it is evenly matched. Nine fabulous colts have turned out for at shot at the $1,000,000 purse. Nine of those colts are winners. Six of them are stakes placed. Four of them are stakes winners. Three of them are graded stakes winners. Two of them are grade I winners. One of them is an Eclipse award finalist. One great field. I would not be surprised at all to see the Kentucky Derby winner emerge from this race. Let's take a closer look at who's running. . .
The number one horse is Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon is the morning line favorite, and has been extremely consistent so far, never finishing worse than fourth in five races. As a matter of fact, he has only finished fourth once, when he was beaten two lengths for all the money in the grade I Champagne Stakes. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a third place finish, beaten only a half a length, in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams. He will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who rode him to his best victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year. He will likely set the pace tomorrow, and will definitely be in the mix. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as Dublin, Noble's Promise, and Uh Oh Bango will carry. All of the other entries will carry 118 pounds.
This brings us to the number two horse Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex won the Hopeful Stakes last year before running poorly in the Champagne Stakes and the Iroquis Stakes. However, it was discovered that he had a breathing problem, which explained his poor showings. It was corrected a few months ago, and since then he has been racing very well, running second to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes and third in the Rebel Stakes behind Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has won thirteen Triple Crown races, and I would love to see him add one more. A win tomorrow would certainly make Dublin one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who has been riding quite well at Oaklawn lately. It is also interesting to note that Dublin was born in April, so he will just be turning three this month. I think we will see a great run from him tomorrow.
Now we come to the morning line second choice, who I believe will be the favorite by the time they get to the gate. The colt is Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been even more consistent than Super Saver, never finishing worse than third in third in seven races. He has won three of those races, and finished second in another three. He would have been the champion two year old male last year had Lookin at Lucky not been around. Noble's Promise has run behind Lookin at Lucky in each of their three meetings. But now he has a chance to emerge from the champion's shadow and prove himself to be Kentucky Derby caliber. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, who I'm sure will get a good run out of him, but Noble's Promise does have stamina issues. He is not bred to get a mile and a quarter and it's possible that a mile and an eighth is out of his range. We'll see what he does tomorrow.
Then there is the number four horse Northern Giant. The son of Giant's Causeway looks bred to go a mile and a quarter, but graded earnings are a concern. Currently sitting with $127,000, he would need to finish first, second, or possibly third to get into the Kentucky Derby. He enters the Arkansas Derby off of a runner up performance to Dean's Kitten in the Lane's End Stakes just two weeks ago. He may be coming back a little quick, but perhaps he can handle it. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, which make him Dublin's stablemate. He will be ridden tomorrow, for the first time, by Victor Espinoza. If the track turns up sloppy tomorrow, (it doesn't look like it will) I don't think anyone can beat him.
This brings us to the number five horse Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit may be just a bit below the top three year old form but has been very consistent, like many of the other horses in this race. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a fourth place finish behind Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, and Dublin in the Rebel Stakes, beaten six and three quarter lengths. However, he has the potential to improve off of that effort, as it was his first start in over three months. He might just surprise everyone and throw in a winning run. He will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan.
Now we come to the number six horse New Madrid. The son of Rock Hard Ten has a very nice pedigree, and has been racing rather well lately. He has only raced three times. In his debut last November at Churchill Downs, he was knocked off stride and failed to threaten while finishing sixth. In his next race, however, he ran quite well, coming four wide to finish second in a maiden race at Oaklawn Park behind Endorsement, who went on to win the Sunland Derby. In his last start, he succeeded in breaking his maiden, winning a one mile and a sixteenth maiden race by a length and a quarter over Tiz Dangerous. He does appear to be several notches below top three year old form, but he is trained by Tim Ice, who won the Belmont Stakes last year with Summer Bird. Anyway, New Madrid will be ridden by A. Castellano Jr.
Then there is the number seven horse Berberis. The son of Southern Image did not race at two, but began his career on January 3rd in a six furlong maiden race at Fair Grounds. He raced far back for much of the race, but rallied to take second, two lengths behind the winner What's New. In his second start, at a mile and a sixteenth, he stayed closer to the pace, but was caught three wide on both turns and ended up third behind Fast Alex and Elkhorn Creek. However, he was only beaten a length and a quarter for the win, and it came as no surprise when he did break his maiden in his next race. Running a mile and forty yards on a slow track at Fair Grounds, he once again came from far back to win by just under two lengths, defeating Capote Ruler and Elkhorn Creek. Like New Madrid, he would really have to step up to be in the mix tomorrow, but it's possible that he might. He will be ridden for the first time by A. Gryder, and is trained by Steven Asmussen, who trained 2007 Preakness winner Curlin and 2009 Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra.
This brings us to the number eight horse Line of David. The son of Lion Heart has been rather impressive lately, although his only two wins have come on turf. He seems to be improving, and will likely challenge Super Saver for the early lead. His last two races, both wins, have come in wire-to-wire fashion, and he has been keeping some pretty decent company. It is possible that he could contend tomorrow. He will be ridden for the first time by J. Court.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Pulsion. The son of Include had always been a deep closer, that is, until his last race. In the Florida Derby, he broke sharply a set the pace for three quarters of a mile before giving in to Rule, and eventually fading to sixth. However, the pace he set that day was very fast, and he will likely get a slower on today. If he sticks with his new running style, he might just be able to hold off everybody. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani, who rode him for the first time in the Florida Derby.
Those are all of the entries. Now I've just got to put them in the order I think they will finish, which is easier said than done.
After much thought, here are my selections. . .
1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid
It was tough to put them in order, but I'm confident that I got it right. I can't see anybody beating Noble's Promise at this distance, although I will be cheering for Dublin to catch him. As I have said on prior posts, Dublin is my Kentucky Derby pick, but I just don't see him catching Noble's Promise. Super Saver has obvious talent, but like Noble's Promise, has a few stamina questions. I think that Northern Giant is coming back a little fast, and that he may not be quite as good as the others. So my actual pick is Noble's Promise, but I will be cheering for Dublin and Northern Giant.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although I am running out of time, I'll take a minute to mention a few other interesting races that are being run today.
An interesting field has turned out for the Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. The one mile grade III race for three year old fillies drew the undefeated She'll Be Doggone, as well as stakes placed C C's Pal and Indian Burn. It should be an interesting race, and may affect the outcome of the Kentucky Oaks. She'll Be Doggone looks tough to beat, but I believe that Volare Cantare can give her a run for her money.
Then there is the Instant Racing Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The one mile race for three year old fillies drew an eight horse field, but Tiz Miz Sue has scratched, leaving only seven running. The heavy morning line favorite at even money is Decelerator, who I think deserves to be the favorite. Bell's Shoes and Washington Bridge are expected to be her biggest threats, but I wouldn't ignore Best Reward either.
Finally, there is the nine furlong La Puente Stakes at Santa Anita. On turf for three year olds, the race drew a field of nine horses before Coloursoftheglen scratched, reducing the field to eight. The morning line favorite in this tight race is Fantastic Pick at 7-2. Then there's Ace of Aces at 4-1, Lucky Race at 9-2, and Dream Nettie at 5-1. Personally, I like Runaway Bandido, with his 6-1 morning line odds. I just have this feeling that he is sitting on a big race. Also, at 15-1, El Mirage King is worth a shot. He might just be in the mix.
And that is all. Now I shall quickly recap the races that were run last week, beginning with the Wood Memorial.
RACE RESULTS
The Wood Memorial was supposed to be a close race. Four of the six entries appeared to be very evenly matched. I figured the top four finishers would be separated by about three or four lengths.
Boy was I wrong.
As it turned out, it was all about Eskendereya, who destroyed the field with amazing ease, winning by nine and three quarter lengths. In his dust, Jackson Bend outfought Awesome Act for second, with Schoolyard Dreams, my personal pick, fourth.
So here are the results. . .
1 Eskendereya
2 Jackson Bend
3 Awesome Act
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella
. . . versus my selections.
1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella
As it turns out, Jackson Bend proved to me once again that he is tougher than I thought. He just wouldn't let Awesome Act pass him for the place. Schoolyard Dreams, I'm afraid, just failed to fire the way I thought he would. But congratulations to Eskendereya, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, etc. They now how the probable Kentucky Derby favorite. However, I still don't think that Eskendereya is going to win the Kentucky Derby. I know that I am part of the minority, but I am just not convinced that he is a super horse. We'll see what happens this May.
Now I turn my attention to the Santa Anita Derby, and the disaster that happened there.
The race was anything but free of traffic. The winner was Sidney's Candy, who definitely ran a winning race. He won by four and a half lengths, with Setsuko and Lookin at Lucky in second and third. But the latter had a nightmare trip which was quite possibly the worst I have ever seen.
First, he had trouble at the start. He was squeezed coming down the homestretch for the first time, squeezed one or two times after that, but the real disaster was on the final turn. Who's Up, under Victor Espinoza, came in on Lookin at Lucky and caused Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky's jockey, to pull the colt up sharply. For most horses, it would have been a disaster, and it might have caused a fall. But despite dropping back considerably and losing all of his momentum, Lookin at Lucky still re-rallied in between horses and got up in time to save third. Caracortado, who was directly behind Lookin at Lucky when the latter stumbled, was forced to back up and circle the entire field. While doing so, Setsuko took his path, forcing Caracortado to alter course once again. Still, he managed to rally for fourth. There was a steward's inquiry about the incident on the final turn, but no changes were made to the final order of finish.
So here are the final results. . .
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Setsuko
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Caracortado
5 Skipshot
6 Alphie's Bet
7 Thomas Baines
8 Posse Power
9 Who's Up
10 Cardiff Giant
. . . versus my selections.
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines
So, I was wrong about just about everything. It's hard to say if I would have been closer had the race been run cleanly, but the fact is, it wasn't. After the race, it was announced that Garrett Gomez had punched Victor Espinoza, possibly more than once, for causing the incident on the far turn. One thing led to another and Victor Espinoza was suspended for three days and Garrett Gomez received a $750 fine. I won't type out everything that happened, but it sounded wild.
Now I shall quickly discuss the Illinois Derby.
The five hundred thousand dollar race, grade III this year rather than grade II, had drawn what I thought was a very evenly matched field, but at the wire only two mattered. They were American Lion amd Yawanna Twist. They were eleven and one quarter lengths in front of the other six runners, obviously the best.
The winner was American Lion. The son of Tiznow had been running rather poorly out in California on the synthetic tracks, but came east to try dirt for the first time. He responded with a wire-to-wire victory. Yawanna Twist, who was never worse than third through out, made a run at him turning for him and as the hit the top of the stretch it looked like he was going to go right by. But American Lion proved tough and turned him away before drawing off to a two and three quarter length victory. Backtalk finished third, a neck in front of Turf Melody.
So here are the final results. . .
1 American Lion
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Backtalk
4 Turf Melody
5 Dave in Dixie
6 Boulder Creek
7 Stephen's Got Hope
8 Game Ball
. . . versus my selections.
1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek
I was close, but not quite on. It is obvious to me that Backtalk's workout did him in, for he ran like a tired horse. I expect him to rebound nicely in his next race, which might just be the Kentucky Derby. As for American Lion, congratulations. Some have made note of his poor final time (1:51 1/5 for a mile and an eighth) but I heard that they were running into a stiff wind, which undoubtedly slowed them down a bit.
So, it was a good race. Now let's take a look at some of the smaller races that were run over the last week.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin, there was the Bay Shore Stakes. The seven furlong race for three year olds at Aqueduct drew Eightyfiveinafifty, who was last seen going through the outer rail at the same track while attempting to run in the Whirlaway Stakes. He came back in a big way on the undercard of the Wood Memorial, starting just a bit slowly but racing up to take the lead and never look back. He won by two and a half lengths as the heavy favorite, running his seven furlongs in an excellent 1:21 4/5. His next race will be the Derby Trial Stakes, and should he win there, the Kentucky Derby. Very, very interesting.
Then there was the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. The favorite for the mile and a sixteenth three year old filly race was She Be Wild, champion two year old filly last year, but in the end, she was upset by Evening Jewel and It's Tea Time. The former won in wire-to-wire fashion, just holding off the latter by a neck. It was another three quarters of a length back to She Be Wild. Second choice Negligee, who was making her three year old debut, finished a dull seventh.
I should also mention the Beaumont Stakes, run at Keeneland on the seventh. The about seven furlong race for three year old fillies was won by Franny Freud, who was sent off as the heavy favorite. She won by nearly five lengths, defeating Chantilly Nayla and Diva Delite. All three of them may head to the Kentucky Oaks.
Then there was the nine furlong Providencia Stakes at Santa Anita Park. For three year old fillies, the favorite was In the Slips, but as it turned out, she was upset by City to City and Andina. The formed won the race in off-the-pace fashion, steadily moving up from eighth to defeat Andina by a half length. It was another length back to In the Slips. Cozi Rosie, the slight second choice, finished seventh. City to City may be one to watch in the Kentucky, should she go.
Now I come to a race which may eventually affect the Triple Crown Trail, but if so, not for many months. The race was a four and a half furlong maiden race for two year old fillies at Keeneland, and the winner was Nina Fever, who broke poorly but raced up to take the early lead a never look back. At the top of the stretch, she led by five, and by the time she hit the finish line she was in front by eight. Keeping My Focus rallied for second at 28-1, with Tristanme coming home third. Who knows? Perhaps Nina Fever will become a great filly, and will one day be compared to Zenyatta! But for now, she is the first winner for her sire Borrego. Good job Borrego!
Then there was the seven furlong Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for three year old colts. The winner was Thank U Philippe, a fine colt who I have always been fond of. He won the race in come from behind fashion by a neck, with My Charming Clyde coming in second and Good Lord third. No Shenanigans finished fourth, only a length and a half away from Thank U Philippe. It was another fourteen and a quarter lengths back to the fifth place finisher, Black Diamond Cat. El Wildcat and Bad Medicine trailed.
I should also mention the mile and a sixteenth Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf Stakes for three year old colts. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Thunder Brew, who just held off Gator Tiger for a three quarter length victory. Saint Jude finished another half length back in third, while only a neck in front of Family Foundation. The race was so close that Battle Music, who finished seventh, was only three and three quarter lengths away from the winner! Although I highly doubt that this will affect the outcome of the Triple Crown, you never know where a good horse could come from, so I mention it anyway.
Now we come to the seven furlong Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies Stakes for three year old fillies. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Dash With Ashley, the co-second choice. With a strong bid on the outside, she came from sixth to score a four length victory. Favored Island Time finished second, a head in front of Joanie's Catch. None of the others ever really threatened.
Now I come down to a set of two allowance races, one at Woodbine and one at Keeneland. The first one, at Woodbine, was a five furlong race for three year old colts. The slight favorite was Western Smoke, with Wildcat Frankie the second choice. Wildcat Frankie set the pace for much of the race, and had a length and a half lead as they turned for home, but he was unable to hold off Fastin Bear, who came from last at the after three eighths of a mile to score a three quarter length victory. Wildcat Frankie came home second, with Teton Pass in third. Legal Review finished fourth, and Western Smoke was last of five.
The second allowance race, this one at Keeneland, was a mile and a sixteenth race for three year old colts. A great big field of eleven turned out, with Our Douglas the favorite and Raging Wit the second choice. The race was very unusual, as Raging Wit opened up a twenty length lead after a half mile, which rapidly shrunk to nothing. He ended up seventh. As for Our Douglas, he made a bold move while four wide, but fell a neck short of upset winner Harken Up. Beau Choix, at 10-1, finished third. Worldly, who had been racing in graded stakes races, finished fourth. Becky's Kitten was fifth.
And finally, FINALLY, I come to the last race. That race was the Apple Blossom Handicap. I won't discuss it thoroughly right now, (I intend to write an entire post about it) but for now I will say that the great mare Zenyatta is 16-for-16 and she ran her most impressive race ever today. Wow.
So, that's all I have to say. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
BLUE GRASS STAKES (gr. I) ---- Keeneland, Race 10, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
You have to give credit to this group, they are going to provide us with a spectacular race tomorrow. The field of nine is very evenly matched, and I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone here win. (Okay, I would be surprised if Stately Victor won, but you get the idea.)
The nine furlong race is run at Keeneland, which has always had an interesting surface. Like most synthetic tracks, Keeneland's Polytrack seems to favor turf horses, but Keeneland's surface is just plain unusual. In 2009, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was General Quarters. He ended up tenth in the Derby. In 2008, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was Monba. He finished last. In 2007, it was Dominican who won the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished eleventh in the Derby. In 2006, the Blue Grass winner was Sinister Minister. He ended up sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby.
Of course, the track was odd even when it was dirt. In 2005, Bandini won the Blue Grass by six lengths and was well bet in the Kentucky Derby. He ended up nineteenth.
There seems to be a pattern here. It looks to me like the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes never fires in the Kentucky Derby. But let's take a look at the horses who were beaten in the Blue Grass Stakes. . .
In 2009, Hold Me Back finished second in the Blue Grass. Although he ran twelfth in the Derby, he did return to finish second behind Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird in the Travers Stakes. Finishing fifth in the 2009 Blue Grass was Join in the Dance, who set the pace in that year's Derby before finishing seventh. Finishing seventh in the Blue Grass was Charitable Man, who went on to win the Peter Pan Stakes and finish fourth in the Belmont Stakes.
But wait, it gets better! In 2008, Cowboy Cal finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes. Although he finished well back in Kentucky, he went on to become an excellent grade I winning turf miler. Finishing tenth in that year's Blue Grass was Pyro, who failed to fire in the Kentucky Derby but went on to become a grade I winner.
In 2007, Street Sense lost the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose, but rebounded to win the Kentucky Derby. He then finished second by a nose in the Preakness and went on to win the Jim Dandy and the Travers.
And finally, in 2005, Closing Argument finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes, but returned to run second in the Kentucky Derby, beaten only a half a length at odds of 71-1.
So that's why I'm going to be watching the colts who are beaten tomorrow, as well as the winner. Now that my big statistic analysis is over, let's take a look at the entries.
The number one horse is Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon comes into the Blue Grass off of a desperate nose win in last month's Tampa Bay Derby. Originally, Odysseus was here strictly to prep for the Triple Crown, but now it looks like he is going to need some additional earnings if he is going to make the Kentucky Derby. A top three finish, or perhaps even a top four finish, would be sufficient, but it is possible that he could be kept out of the Derby. The 7-2 morning line second choice will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh and will carry 123 pounds, the same as everybody else.
Then there is the number two horse First Dude. The son of Stephen Got Even ran fifth in last month's Florida Derby, and is returning only three weeks later for one last shot at getting the graded earnings necessary to make the Kentucky Derby. He was beaten by six and a quarter lengths in that race, but has a good shot at running better tomorrow. Four of his five career starts have been on dirt, but it is interesting to note that he has raced at Keeneland before, finishing second in his first start to Chief Counsel, who just finished fourth in the Lane's End Stakes two weeks ago, despite going seven wide turning for home. I believe that First Dude may be a serious sleeper. He will be ridden tomorrow by Ramon Dominguez, who has not ridden him since October last year.
This brings us to the number three horse Stately Victor. The son of Ghostzapper’s morning line odds are 30-1, but he does have Alan Garcia in the saddle. He has been racing in allowance races lately, and not very well. It would be a huge surprise if he was to win, but you never know what might happen. Perhaps he can go wire-to-wire.
Now we come to the number four horse Make Music for Me. I have liked this colt for many months now, and am looking forward to seeing him race tomorrow. The son of Bernstein comes in to the Blue Grass off of a win in the Pasadena Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. It was the colt’s first victory, although he had been running in, and running well, in more than one grade I stakes last year. He will be ridden by Mike Smith.
Then there is the number five horse Codoy. The son of Bernstein finished first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last February before being disqualified for extensive interference. He is the 30-1 morning line longshot, along with Stately Victor. Codoy will be ridden by John Velazquez.
This brings us to the number six horse Pleasant Prince. The son of Indy King is the morning line favorite, and actually didn't intend to run in this race. In his last start, he lost the Florida Derby by a nose. Had he won, he would have been trained up to the Kentucky Derby. But because he has only $162,500 in graded earnings, it looks as though he will be kept out of the Derby unless he picks up some money here tomorrow. It's not going to be great, running three times in six weeks, but it's not as bad as it could be. He has been training very sharply, and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Now we come to the number seven horse Paddy O'Prado. The son of El Prado has not raced since winning the grade III Palm Beach Stakes on March 6th. His run in that race was very impressive, as he raced very close to the lead through excellent fractions before drawing off to win by two and a half, running the mile and an eighth in 1:45 2/5, a very, very good time. Finishing second in that race was Dean's Kitten, who has gone on to win the Lane's End Stakes. Despite the fact that Paddy O'Prado has 10-1 morning line odds, I think that he is one of the major contenders and will definitely be in the mix. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who has won three Kentucky Derbies.
Then there is the number eight horse Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True has not raced since finishing third to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but that is certainly not an effort to be ashamed of. The seven week layoff coming to this race is a bit of a concern, but he should be ready to fire a big one. He has shown that he likes this track, as he fell only a half length short last year of catching Noble's Promise in the grade I Breeders Futurity. With morning line odds of 4-1, he has a big chance at upsetting Pleasant Prince, especially with Garrett Gomez in the saddle.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Interactif. The son of Broken Vow has been very consistent, but has not won a race since the Bourbon Stakes last October. Since then, he has finished a close third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, second in the Hallandale Beach Stakes, and second in the San Felipe Stakes. The latter was his first race on a synthetic track, and he fell only a half length short of catching top Kentucky Derby hopeful Sidney's Candy. Interactif certainly has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, and he has a pedigree that reads dirt, but I think that he is at his best on turf. Anyway, he will be ridden tomorrow by Rafael Bejarano.
So, who do I like? It's tough to pick a favorite. I would love to see every runner win. I will be personally rooting for Odysseus, because I would love to see him in the Kentucky Derby, but here are my selections. . .
1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor
Man, that was tough. The field for this race is incredible. But as much as I like Odysseus, and as much as I like him for the Kentucky Derby, I don't think that he is going to take to the synthetics. I feel the same way about First Dude, even though he has run here before. I can see Paddy O'Prado winning tomorrow, but I just have the suspicion that he isn't going to repeat his Palm Beach Stakes run here tomorrow. I think that this is going to be a Todd Pletcher sweep, with his two colts running one-two, just like Monba and Cowboy Cal did in 2008. I love Make Music for Me, and I have been following his career since last December, but I just don't know if he is good enough to handle this group. So my actual selections: Aikenite and Interactif. Sentimental selections: Odysseus and Make Music for Me.
Now lets move on to the Arkansas Derby.
ARKANSAS DERBY (gr. I) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 9, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
No matter which way you look at it, the Arkansas Derby is going to be one of the best in many years. Not only is the field top class, but it is evenly matched. Nine fabulous colts have turned out for at shot at the $1,000,000 purse. Nine of those colts are winners. Six of them are stakes placed. Four of them are stakes winners. Three of them are graded stakes winners. Two of them are grade I winners. One of them is an Eclipse award finalist. One great field. I would not be surprised at all to see the Kentucky Derby winner emerge from this race. Let's take a closer look at who's running. . .
The number one horse is Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon is the morning line favorite, and has been extremely consistent so far, never finishing worse than fourth in five races. As a matter of fact, he has only finished fourth once, when he was beaten two lengths for all the money in the grade I Champagne Stakes. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a third place finish, beaten only a half a length, in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams. He will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who rode him to his best victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year. He will likely set the pace tomorrow, and will definitely be in the mix. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as Dublin, Noble's Promise, and Uh Oh Bango will carry. All of the other entries will carry 118 pounds.
This brings us to the number two horse Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex won the Hopeful Stakes last year before running poorly in the Champagne Stakes and the Iroquis Stakes. However, it was discovered that he had a breathing problem, which explained his poor showings. It was corrected a few months ago, and since then he has been racing very well, running second to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes and third in the Rebel Stakes behind Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has won thirteen Triple Crown races, and I would love to see him add one more. A win tomorrow would certainly make Dublin one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who has been riding quite well at Oaklawn lately. It is also interesting to note that Dublin was born in April, so he will just be turning three this month. I think we will see a great run from him tomorrow.
Now we come to the morning line second choice, who I believe will be the favorite by the time they get to the gate. The colt is Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been even more consistent than Super Saver, never finishing worse than third in third in seven races. He has won three of those races, and finished second in another three. He would have been the champion two year old male last year had Lookin at Lucky not been around. Noble's Promise has run behind Lookin at Lucky in each of their three meetings. But now he has a chance to emerge from the champion's shadow and prove himself to be Kentucky Derby caliber. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, who I'm sure will get a good run out of him, but Noble's Promise does have stamina issues. He is not bred to get a mile and a quarter and it's possible that a mile and an eighth is out of his range. We'll see what he does tomorrow.
Then there is the number four horse Northern Giant. The son of Giant's Causeway looks bred to go a mile and a quarter, but graded earnings are a concern. Currently sitting with $127,000, he would need to finish first, second, or possibly third to get into the Kentucky Derby. He enters the Arkansas Derby off of a runner up performance to Dean's Kitten in the Lane's End Stakes just two weeks ago. He may be coming back a little quick, but perhaps he can handle it. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, which make him Dublin's stablemate. He will be ridden tomorrow, for the first time, by Victor Espinoza. If the track turns up sloppy tomorrow, (it doesn't look like it will) I don't think anyone can beat him.
This brings us to the number five horse Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit may be just a bit below the top three year old form but has been very consistent, like many of the other horses in this race. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a fourth place finish behind Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, and Dublin in the Rebel Stakes, beaten six and three quarter lengths. However, he has the potential to improve off of that effort, as it was his first start in over three months. He might just surprise everyone and throw in a winning run. He will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan.
Now we come to the number six horse New Madrid. The son of Rock Hard Ten has a very nice pedigree, and has been racing rather well lately. He has only raced three times. In his debut last November at Churchill Downs, he was knocked off stride and failed to threaten while finishing sixth. In his next race, however, he ran quite well, coming four wide to finish second in a maiden race at Oaklawn Park behind Endorsement, who went on to win the Sunland Derby. In his last start, he succeeded in breaking his maiden, winning a one mile and a sixteenth maiden race by a length and a quarter over Tiz Dangerous. He does appear to be several notches below top three year old form, but he is trained by Tim Ice, who won the Belmont Stakes last year with Summer Bird. Anyway, New Madrid will be ridden by A. Castellano Jr.
Then there is the number seven horse Berberis. The son of Southern Image did not race at two, but began his career on January 3rd in a six furlong maiden race at Fair Grounds. He raced far back for much of the race, but rallied to take second, two lengths behind the winner What's New. In his second start, at a mile and a sixteenth, he stayed closer to the pace, but was caught three wide on both turns and ended up third behind Fast Alex and Elkhorn Creek. However, he was only beaten a length and a quarter for the win, and it came as no surprise when he did break his maiden in his next race. Running a mile and forty yards on a slow track at Fair Grounds, he once again came from far back to win by just under two lengths, defeating Capote Ruler and Elkhorn Creek. Like New Madrid, he would really have to step up to be in the mix tomorrow, but it's possible that he might. He will be ridden for the first time by A. Gryder, and is trained by Steven Asmussen, who trained 2007 Preakness winner Curlin and 2009 Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra.
This brings us to the number eight horse Line of David. The son of Lion Heart has been rather impressive lately, although his only two wins have come on turf. He seems to be improving, and will likely challenge Super Saver for the early lead. His last two races, both wins, have come in wire-to-wire fashion, and he has been keeping some pretty decent company. It is possible that he could contend tomorrow. He will be ridden for the first time by J. Court.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Pulsion. The son of Include had always been a deep closer, that is, until his last race. In the Florida Derby, he broke sharply a set the pace for three quarters of a mile before giving in to Rule, and eventually fading to sixth. However, the pace he set that day was very fast, and he will likely get a slower on today. If he sticks with his new running style, he might just be able to hold off everybody. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani, who rode him for the first time in the Florida Derby.
Those are all of the entries. Now I've just got to put them in the order I think they will finish, which is easier said than done.
After much thought, here are my selections. . .
1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid
It was tough to put them in order, but I'm confident that I got it right. I can't see anybody beating Noble's Promise at this distance, although I will be cheering for Dublin to catch him. As I have said on prior posts, Dublin is my Kentucky Derby pick, but I just don't see him catching Noble's Promise. Super Saver has obvious talent, but like Noble's Promise, has a few stamina questions. I think that Northern Giant is coming back a little fast, and that he may not be quite as good as the others. So my actual pick is Noble's Promise, but I will be cheering for Dublin and Northern Giant.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Although I am running out of time, I'll take a minute to mention a few other interesting races that are being run today.
An interesting field has turned out for the Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. The one mile grade III race for three year old fillies drew the undefeated She'll Be Doggone, as well as stakes placed C C's Pal and Indian Burn. It should be an interesting race, and may affect the outcome of the Kentucky Oaks. She'll Be Doggone looks tough to beat, but I believe that Volare Cantare can give her a run for her money.
Then there is the Instant Racing Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The one mile race for three year old fillies drew an eight horse field, but Tiz Miz Sue has scratched, leaving only seven running. The heavy morning line favorite at even money is Decelerator, who I think deserves to be the favorite. Bell's Shoes and Washington Bridge are expected to be her biggest threats, but I wouldn't ignore Best Reward either.
Finally, there is the nine furlong La Puente Stakes at Santa Anita. On turf for three year olds, the race drew a field of nine horses before Coloursoftheglen scratched, reducing the field to eight. The morning line favorite in this tight race is Fantastic Pick at 7-2. Then there's Ace of Aces at 4-1, Lucky Race at 9-2, and Dream Nettie at 5-1. Personally, I like Runaway Bandido, with his 6-1 morning line odds. I just have this feeling that he is sitting on a big race. Also, at 15-1, El Mirage King is worth a shot. He might just be in the mix.
And that is all. Now I shall quickly recap the races that were run last week, beginning with the Wood Memorial.
RACE RESULTS
The Wood Memorial was supposed to be a close race. Four of the six entries appeared to be very evenly matched. I figured the top four finishers would be separated by about three or four lengths.
Boy was I wrong.
As it turned out, it was all about Eskendereya, who destroyed the field with amazing ease, winning by nine and three quarter lengths. In his dust, Jackson Bend outfought Awesome Act for second, with Schoolyard Dreams, my personal pick, fourth.
So here are the results. . .
1 Eskendereya
2 Jackson Bend
3 Awesome Act
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella
. . . versus my selections.
1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella
As it turns out, Jackson Bend proved to me once again that he is tougher than I thought. He just wouldn't let Awesome Act pass him for the place. Schoolyard Dreams, I'm afraid, just failed to fire the way I thought he would. But congratulations to Eskendereya, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, etc. They now how the probable Kentucky Derby favorite. However, I still don't think that Eskendereya is going to win the Kentucky Derby. I know that I am part of the minority, but I am just not convinced that he is a super horse. We'll see what happens this May.
Now I turn my attention to the Santa Anita Derby, and the disaster that happened there.
The race was anything but free of traffic. The winner was Sidney's Candy, who definitely ran a winning race. He won by four and a half lengths, with Setsuko and Lookin at Lucky in second and third. But the latter had a nightmare trip which was quite possibly the worst I have ever seen.
First, he had trouble at the start. He was squeezed coming down the homestretch for the first time, squeezed one or two times after that, but the real disaster was on the final turn. Who's Up, under Victor Espinoza, came in on Lookin at Lucky and caused Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky's jockey, to pull the colt up sharply. For most horses, it would have been a disaster, and it might have caused a fall. But despite dropping back considerably and losing all of his momentum, Lookin at Lucky still re-rallied in between horses and got up in time to save third. Caracortado, who was directly behind Lookin at Lucky when the latter stumbled, was forced to back up and circle the entire field. While doing so, Setsuko took his path, forcing Caracortado to alter course once again. Still, he managed to rally for fourth. There was a steward's inquiry about the incident on the final turn, but no changes were made to the final order of finish.
So here are the final results. . .
1 Sidney's Candy
2 Setsuko
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Caracortado
5 Skipshot
6 Alphie's Bet
7 Thomas Baines
8 Posse Power
9 Who's Up
10 Cardiff Giant
. . . versus my selections.
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines
So, I was wrong about just about everything. It's hard to say if I would have been closer had the race been run cleanly, but the fact is, it wasn't. After the race, it was announced that Garrett Gomez had punched Victor Espinoza, possibly more than once, for causing the incident on the far turn. One thing led to another and Victor Espinoza was suspended for three days and Garrett Gomez received a $750 fine. I won't type out everything that happened, but it sounded wild.
Now I shall quickly discuss the Illinois Derby.
The five hundred thousand dollar race, grade III this year rather than grade II, had drawn what I thought was a very evenly matched field, but at the wire only two mattered. They were American Lion amd Yawanna Twist. They were eleven and one quarter lengths in front of the other six runners, obviously the best.
The winner was American Lion. The son of Tiznow had been running rather poorly out in California on the synthetic tracks, but came east to try dirt for the first time. He responded with a wire-to-wire victory. Yawanna Twist, who was never worse than third through out, made a run at him turning for him and as the hit the top of the stretch it looked like he was going to go right by. But American Lion proved tough and turned him away before drawing off to a two and three quarter length victory. Backtalk finished third, a neck in front of Turf Melody.
So here are the final results. . .
1 American Lion
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Backtalk
4 Turf Melody
5 Dave in Dixie
6 Boulder Creek
7 Stephen's Got Hope
8 Game Ball
. . . versus my selections.
1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek
I was close, but not quite on. It is obvious to me that Backtalk's workout did him in, for he ran like a tired horse. I expect him to rebound nicely in his next race, which might just be the Kentucky Derby. As for American Lion, congratulations. Some have made note of his poor final time (1:51 1/5 for a mile and an eighth) but I heard that they were running into a stiff wind, which undoubtedly slowed them down a bit.
So, it was a good race. Now let's take a look at some of the smaller races that were run over the last week.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin, there was the Bay Shore Stakes. The seven furlong race for three year olds at Aqueduct drew Eightyfiveinafifty, who was last seen going through the outer rail at the same track while attempting to run in the Whirlaway Stakes. He came back in a big way on the undercard of the Wood Memorial, starting just a bit slowly but racing up to take the lead and never look back. He won by two and a half lengths as the heavy favorite, running his seven furlongs in an excellent 1:21 4/5. His next race will be the Derby Trial Stakes, and should he win there, the Kentucky Derby. Very, very interesting.
Then there was the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. The favorite for the mile and a sixteenth three year old filly race was She Be Wild, champion two year old filly last year, but in the end, she was upset by Evening Jewel and It's Tea Time. The former won in wire-to-wire fashion, just holding off the latter by a neck. It was another three quarters of a length back to She Be Wild. Second choice Negligee, who was making her three year old debut, finished a dull seventh.
I should also mention the Beaumont Stakes, run at Keeneland on the seventh. The about seven furlong race for three year old fillies was won by Franny Freud, who was sent off as the heavy favorite. She won by nearly five lengths, defeating Chantilly Nayla and Diva Delite. All three of them may head to the Kentucky Oaks.
Then there was the nine furlong Providencia Stakes at Santa Anita Park. For three year old fillies, the favorite was In the Slips, but as it turned out, she was upset by City to City and Andina. The formed won the race in off-the-pace fashion, steadily moving up from eighth to defeat Andina by a half length. It was another length back to In the Slips. Cozi Rosie, the slight second choice, finished seventh. City to City may be one to watch in the Kentucky, should she go.
Now I come to a race which may eventually affect the Triple Crown Trail, but if so, not for many months. The race was a four and a half furlong maiden race for two year old fillies at Keeneland, and the winner was Nina Fever, who broke poorly but raced up to take the early lead a never look back. At the top of the stretch, she led by five, and by the time she hit the finish line she was in front by eight. Keeping My Focus rallied for second at 28-1, with Tristanme coming home third. Who knows? Perhaps Nina Fever will become a great filly, and will one day be compared to Zenyatta! But for now, she is the first winner for her sire Borrego. Good job Borrego!
Then there was the seven furlong Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for three year old colts. The winner was Thank U Philippe, a fine colt who I have always been fond of. He won the race in come from behind fashion by a neck, with My Charming Clyde coming in second and Good Lord third. No Shenanigans finished fourth, only a length and a half away from Thank U Philippe. It was another fourteen and a quarter lengths back to the fifth place finisher, Black Diamond Cat. El Wildcat and Bad Medicine trailed.
I should also mention the mile and a sixteenth Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf Stakes for three year old colts. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Thunder Brew, who just held off Gator Tiger for a three quarter length victory. Saint Jude finished another half length back in third, while only a neck in front of Family Foundation. The race was so close that Battle Music, who finished seventh, was only three and three quarter lengths away from the winner! Although I highly doubt that this will affect the outcome of the Triple Crown, you never know where a good horse could come from, so I mention it anyway.
Now we come to the seven furlong Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies Stakes for three year old fillies. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Dash With Ashley, the co-second choice. With a strong bid on the outside, she came from sixth to score a four length victory. Favored Island Time finished second, a head in front of Joanie's Catch. None of the others ever really threatened.
Now I come down to a set of two allowance races, one at Woodbine and one at Keeneland. The first one, at Woodbine, was a five furlong race for three year old colts. The slight favorite was Western Smoke, with Wildcat Frankie the second choice. Wildcat Frankie set the pace for much of the race, and had a length and a half lead as they turned for home, but he was unable to hold off Fastin Bear, who came from last at the after three eighths of a mile to score a three quarter length victory. Wildcat Frankie came home second, with Teton Pass in third. Legal Review finished fourth, and Western Smoke was last of five.
The second allowance race, this one at Keeneland, was a mile and a sixteenth race for three year old colts. A great big field of eleven turned out, with Our Douglas the favorite and Raging Wit the second choice. The race was very unusual, as Raging Wit opened up a twenty length lead after a half mile, which rapidly shrunk to nothing. He ended up seventh. As for Our Douglas, he made a bold move while four wide, but fell a neck short of upset winner Harken Up. Beau Choix, at 10-1, finished third. Worldly, who had been racing in graded stakes races, finished fourth. Becky's Kitten was fifth.
And finally, FINALLY, I come to the last race. That race was the Apple Blossom Handicap. I won't discuss it thoroughly right now, (I intend to write an entire post about it) but for now I will say that the great mare Zenyatta is 16-for-16 and she ran her most impressive race ever today. Wow.
So, that's all I have to say. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Saturday, April 03, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- April 2nd, 2010
Four weeks until the Kentucky Derby. Just twenty eight days. Last week, several pretenders were eliminated. Many more will be thrown out during the next two weeks. Expect another contender or two to emerge as well. It's bound to happen. Many fascinating things happened last week, but before I recap them, I must discuss what's happening this week. What a great week it's going to be.
WOOD MEMORIAL (gr. I) ---- Aqueduct, Race 9, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
Of all the Triple Crown prep races this week, this one is probably the most solid. Four major players on the Trail turned out to do battle, along with two longshots who have the potential to hit the board, or maybe even win.
To begin with, there is the number one horse, Most Happy Fella. The son of Ecton Park has been improving ever so slightly in each start, but would need to really step up tomorrow to be in the mix. He has never started in a stakes race, but has raced at Aqueduct five times already. He will likely set the pace tomorrow. He will carry 123 pounds, the same as all of the other entries, and will be ridden by A. Napravnik.
Then there is the number two horse, Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again was very impressive in the Gotham Stakes, and he is expected to provide most of the competition for Eskendereya. However, it is possible that he could regress off of his last race, which could leave the door open for a longshot to steal his place. We'll see what he can do. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
This brings us to the number three horse Eskendereya. The son of Giant's Causeway is one of the current favorites for the Kentucky Derby and comes off of a tremendous run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes six weeks ago, where he destroyed Jackson Bend by eight and a half lengths. Like Awesome Act, it is possible that he could bounce off of his last race. If so, it's possible for a longshot to steal the race. He is the morning line favorite at odds of 4-5 and will be ridden by John Velazquez.
Then there is the number four horse, Schoolyard Dreams. The son of Stephen Got Even comes into tomorrow's race off of a nose loss to top Triple Crown candidate Odysseus, while finishing a half length in front of Super Saver. With a blazing :46 4/5 workout last Saturday, I think that he is ready to run the race of his life tomorrow. If anyone is going to upset the big two, I think that it will be him. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
Now we come to the number five horse, Jackson Bend. The son of Hear No Evil was running incredibly well at Calder last year, but has been unable to win in two starts this year, finishing second both times. I think he is ready to run his best race tomorrow, and with Calvin Borel in the saddle, I think that he is capable of upsetting the big two.
Finally, there is the number six horse Canivore. The son of Giant's Causeway comes into the Wood Memorial off of a seven length win in a $27,000 maiden race at Laurel Park. He has been improving in leaps and bounds and might have a shot at hitting the board if something drastic happens. He will be ridden by J. Shepherd.
So, here are my selections for the Wood Memorial. . .
1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Canivore
6 Most Happy Fella
I don't know. . . this is a tough race to figure out. Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, Eskendereya, and Jackson Bend are all pretty evenly matched, and if one of them doesn't fire, Carivore and Most Happy Fella are right there, waiting to pick up the pieces. I know that Eskendereya is a very good colt, but I don't think that he is going to duplicate his Fountain of Youth run. I think that Awesome Act is going to regress, but I think that Schoolyard Dreams is going to run his best race to date. I know that Jackson Bend has great talent, and I know that Calvin Borel is going to get a great race out of him, but I just don't think that he is going to get the distance. Canivore and Most Happy Fella are about equal, and both of them have a shot at hitting the board. It's going to be a great race. And it's going to be very influential.
SANTA ANITA DERBY (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 6, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Here it is --- the Santa Anita Derby. For many, this is the final chance for fine colts to prove that they are Triple Crown caliber. A tough field of ten has been drawn for this $750,000 prep race. Many of the colts here need to finish first or second to have any shot at making the Kentucky Derby. Those who don't finish in the top two will have to wait until the Preakness or the Belmont. Let's take a look at who's running.
First off, there is the number one horse Posse Power. The son of Posse most recently finished third behind Connemara in the El Camino Real Derby six weeks ago. He would have to really step up to contend here tomorrow, but who knows? He will carry 122 pounds, the same as everybody else, and will be ridden by L. Mawing.
Then there is the number two horse, Thomas Baines. The son of Johannesburg comes into the Santa Anita Derby off of a win in a one mile optional claiming race at this track just over a month ago. Prior to that, he finished sixth in the El Camino Real and third in the California Derby. Like Posse Power, he would need to show a lot of improvement to be in the mix. He will be ridden by J. Rosario.
Now we come to the number three horse, Who's Up. The son of Graeme Hall has not raced since winning the Generous Stakes on turf last November. He is perhaps the mystery colt in the race, for it is hard to say how well he will run.
This brings us to the number four horse Sidney's Candy. The son of Candy Ride has been very impressive so far, easily winning the grade II San Vicente on February 15th and fighting to the wire for victory in the grade II San Felipe Stakes three weeks ago. Both wins were in wire-to-wire fashion, which is going to be tough to do tomorrow. He's going to have to show another gear in the stretch if he wants to hold off Lookin at Lucky. He will be ridden by Joseph Talamo.
Then there is the number five horse, Setsuko. The son of Pleasantly Perfect most recently finished second to fellow Santa Anita Derby runner Alphie's Bet in the March 6th Sham Stakes. He is a very interesting colt, and may have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, and is actually trained by Richard Mandella, who won four Breeders' Cup races at this track in 2003.
Now we come to the number six horse Caracortado. The son of Cat Dreams was undefeated in five starts, which included an easy win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, before finishing third behind Sidney's Candy and Interactif in the San Felipe. However, in that race, he had very little pace to chase, which should not be a problem here tomorrow. He will be ridden by Paul Atkinson, who has ridden him in every one of his races so far.
This brings us to the morning line favorite, the colt everybody is talking about, the colt who is the current Kentucky Derby favorite. Lookin at Lucky. The son of Smart Strike has won six of seven races, his only loss coming by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after a nightmare trip, where he was carried six wide on the first turn and never got anywhere near the rail. He rebounded later that year to score in the CashCall Futurity last December, and then won the Rebel Stakes by a nose last March in his season debut. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez, he is going to be tough to beat. Should he win, he will become the first two year old champion to win the Santa Anita Derby the following year since Affirmed. It would also provide Garrett Gomez with his third consecutive win in this race. . .
Then there is the number eight horse Cardiff Giant. The son of Yankee Gentleman has already started twelve times, and has been rather consistent this year, hitting the board in two graded stakes races before running fifth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes. He would need to show something extra to hit the board here, but you never know what might happen.
Now we come to the number nine horse Skipshot. The son of Skip Away comes into the Santa Anita Derby off of a nose win in a one mile allowance race at Golden Gate Fields about three weeks ago. His final workout for this race was very good, and he may be overlooked by many. I think that he has a shot at getting a piece of it. He will be ridden by F. Alvarado.
Finally, there is the number ten horse Alphie's Bet. The son of Tribal Rule was very impressive while winning the Sham Stakes four weeks ago, and is one of the main contenders here tomorrow. With Alex Solis in the saddle, I will be watching him very closely.
So here are my selections for Santa Anita Derby. . .
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines
It was tough figuring out who would finish fifth through tenth, but I never paused for the top four. I believe that Lookin at Lucky is going to win rather easily tomorrow, with Caracortado redeeming himself with a good run. Alphie's Bet obviously has talent, but breaking from post ten isn't the greatest thing, and I'm just not hooked on him yet. I don't think the Sidney's Candy is going to hold on today, but I do think that Who's Up is overlooked and will run a big one at huge odds. Finally, I may have Setsuko a bit low, but I'm just not convinced that the Sham Stakes was that strong. We'll see what happens. No matter who wins, it's going to be a great race.
ILLINOIS DERBY (gr. II) ---- Hawthorne, Race 7, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
Of all the grand three year old races being run this week, I believe that this one I am most looking forward to. It has drawn a very nice eight horse field, of which every entry has a shot at winning. Not only is the purse a very large $500,000, but the winner will receive $300,000, which is more than enough to make it to the Kentucky Derby. I believe that a major Triple Crown contender is going to come from this race, just like Musket Man last year. Let's take a look at who's running. . .
I'll begin with the number one horse, American Lion. The son of Tiznow showed great potential last year after winning the grade III Hollywood Prevue Stakes at Hollywood Park, but has been rather disappointing this year, finishing third behind Caracortado and Dave in Dixie in the Robert B. Lewis and fourth behind Sidney's Candy, Interactif, and Caracortado in the San Felipe. However, he is bred to be a dirt horse, and is expected to run a better race tomorrow. He will be ridden by David Flores and may have a shot if the pace is slow. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as all of the other entries.
Then there is the number two horse, Stephen's Got Hope. The son of Stephen Got Even finished fifth, beaten fine lengths, in the San Felipe Stakes, but has a shot at turning in a better effort in his first start on dirt. He will be ridden by J. Garcia. I will be watching this one closely.
Now we come to the number three horse, Boulder Creek. Like Stephen's Got Hope, he was very disappointing in his last race, finishing fifth, beaten four and three quarter lengths, in the nine furlong Sham Stakes. However, he does have a chance to improve in his first start on dirt. He will be ridden by C. Emigh.
This brings us to the number four horse, Yawanna Twist. The son of Yonaguska comes into the Illinois Derby off of a runner up performance to top Kentucky Derby contender Awesome Act in the Gotham Stakes four weeks ago. He is the 4-1 morning line third choice, but I think he is one of the top contenders. He will be ridden by Edgar Prado, who rode Barbaro to victory in the 2006 Kentucky Derby.
But we mustn’t forget Turf Melody. The son of Maria’s Mon will be making his tenth start. Hawthorne will be the tenth race track at which he has raced. Ridden tomorrow by Jeremy Rose, he comes into the Illinois Derby off of a fourth place finish to Awesome Act in the Gotham. His morning line odds are 6-1, but I think that he is one of the major contenders.
This brings us to the number six horse, Dave in Dixie. The son of Dixie Union finished second to Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes before ending up sixth, beaten by nearly six lengths, in the San Felipe. However, that poor showing can be explained by the lack of pace in that race, which I thoroughly discussed in one of my other posts. I'm willing to give him a shot at redeeming himself tomorrow. He will be ridden by J. Valdivia, Jr.
Now we come to the number seven horse, the morning line favorite. He is Backtalk, who I believe is the most successful son of Smarty Jones to date. With $170,000 in graded earnings, all of it coming from his fine summer 2009 form, he is probably going to make the Kentucky Derby no matter what he does today. But a good effort tomorrow could make him one of the favorites. In 2009, he won the Bashford Manor Stakes and the Sanford Stakes before running fourth in the Champagne and eighth in the Breeders' Futurity. Given some time off, he rebounded with a fine win in the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes on February 26th despite some traffic issues. His final workout for the Illinois Derby was six furlongs in 1:09 3/5, which has raised some concern to how well he will run tomorrow, but I think that he is ready to go. He will be ridden by M. Mena.
Finally, we come to the number eight horse Game Ball. The son of Sky Mesa is two-for-two in 2010, his most recent win coming in an optional claiming race on March 5th down in Florida. He is probably out classed here, but he may be able to throw in a good run. He will be ridden by W. Martinez.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek
It was a tough race to figure out, but I believe that Backtalk can win despite the fast workout. American Lion has obvious talent, but has run into some trouble in his last two starts. I think he will improve on dirt and the pace should be slow enough for him to hang on to second. I have liked Yawanna Twist since the Gotham, but I'm not sure if he is ready for this race. He needs to finish second to have any shot at making the Kentucky Derby, so we'll see what happens. As for Dave in Dixie, I have always liked this colt, but I don't think that he is going to get there tomorrow. To make the Kentucky Derby, he would have to win, so a lot hangs on the wire at Hawthorne. As for Turf Melody, he is obviously a very tough colt, and he is one of my personal favorites here, but I just can't see him winning against this field. As for the other three, they all have a shot at hitting the board, but I can't really see any of them winning. But perhaps Stephen's Got Hope could surprise everyone. We'll see.
Those are my final thoughts on the big three.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As usual, there are other great races this Saturday that I should mention, and this lot deserves a lot of attention for it is a very good set of "undercard" races.
To begin with, there is the seven furlong grade III Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct for three year olds. The big name is Eightfiveinafifty, who has not raced since blowing the turn in the Whirlaway Stakes early last February. He has been training very well since the incident, and is back to a one turn race, trying to prove once again that he is a top class colt who deserves attention. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. His main competition may come from El Rocco, who will carry co-top weight of 120 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Personally, I like the name Noah's Dream, and believe that Casaneda will be in the mix. It should be a good race. Perhaps the world record is in danger. . . (ha ha)
Next up is the grade I Ashland Stakes at Keeneland for three year old fillies. The race has drawn the Eclipse Champion for two year old filly She Be Wild, as well as the very tough Negligee, who beat She Be Wild in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes.
Of course, She Be Wild should be able to present herself well, but she comes into the Ashland off of a very poor effort in the Forward Gal Stakes last January, finishing fifth, ten lengths behind runaway winner Bickersons. That was her first start on dirt, but she returns to synthetics tomorrow.
As for Negligee, I believe that she will do a lot more than run well. I believe she is ready to run a tremendous race and probably beat She Be Wild. Other contenders are Protesting Beautician, Evening Jewel, and Upperline. It's going to be a great race, but I do think that Negligee is going to be the winner, with Evening Jewel running a fine race as well. Apple Charlotte could also be in the mix.
Finally, it's worth mentioning that the seven furlong grade I Carter Handicap is to be run right after the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The race is for three year olds and up, but of course, it drew no three year olds. I'm mentioning it because last year's Illinois Derby winner Musket Man is back for another shot at winning a grade I. His main competition is expected to be Munnings, who is actually the morning line favorite at 4-5. Both colts battled with Rachel Alexandra at one point in their lifetime, with Musket Man finishing third to her in the Preakness and Munnings finishing third behind the Horse of the Year in the Haskell Invitational. It should be a great race.
With all that said, I shall now recap what happened last week, beginning with the Louisiana Derby.
RACE RECAPS
The Lousiana Derby did not go as I thought it would. I have been a Ron the Greek fan since he won the Lecomte, and I thought that today would be his day. It wasn't, as he finished sixth behind Mission Impazible, who scored a three quarter length win over a very stubborn A Little Warm. Drosselmeyer ended up third, with Risen Start winner Discreetly Mine in fourth.
So here are the results. . .
1 Mission Impazible
2 A Little Warm
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Discreetly Mine
5 Stay Put
6 Ron the Greek
7 The Program
8 Mister Marti Gras
9 Fly Down
10 Wow Wow Wow
11 Hotep
12 Island Soul
13 Backtrack
. . . versus my selections.
1 Ron the Greek
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 Stay Put
6 The Program
7 A Little Warm
8 Backtrack
9 Mission Impazible
10 Mister Marti Gras
11 Wow Wow Wow
12 Island Soul
13 Hotep
Now, it was a very close race, with only about twelve lengths separating the twelve finishers. (Backtrack was eased.) From first to ninth was only 6 3/4 lengths, and the top four finishers were only one and a quarter lengths apart. That said, I was completely wrong about Mission Impazible, who made Dublin, Conveyance, and Cardiff Giant look that much better, as those three beat him soundly in the Southwest Stakes last February. I was right about Discreetly Mine not getting the distance, and that Drosselmeyer would finish third, but Ron the Greek just didn't put in his final rally. However, he was beaten by only three and a half lengths, and I would still like him in the Kentucky Derby if he had the earnings to go there, which he doesn't. But perhaps he is still a Belmont Stakes horse.
As for other race results, Dean's Kitten won the Lane's End Stakes, stamping his ticket to the Kentucky Derby as he destroyed Northern Giant and Connemara fairly easily. Double's Partner, who has beaten Lentenor in a nine furlong turf allowance race, finished eighth. I don't think that Dean's Kitten is Triple Crown caliber, but it's hard to say for sure.
Then there was the rich Sunland Derby in New Mexico. Conveyance was the heavy favorite, and rightfully so, but he ended up finishing second, three lengths behind the 12-1 upset winner Endorsement. The latter finished the nine furlongs in 1:48 2/5, which was only a fifth of a second off of the forty-nine year old track record. Tempted to Tapit was another three lengths back in third. So Endorsement moves on to everyone's list of top Kentucky Derby contenders, while Conveyance drops a few notches.
But that's not all. In the Fantasy Stakes, which happened only a few hours ago, Blind Luck proved that she may be even better on dirt, winning rather easily by three lengths in the four horse field. Just remember that Rachel Alexandra and Eight Belles won the Fantasy Stakes on their way to stardom.
Then there were a bunch of little races all over the country. The seven and a half furlong on the turf Grindstone Stakes was snatched up by Working for Hops, the one mile and a sixteenth Rushaway Stakes was claimed by Exhi in nearly wire-to-wire fashion, the six furlong Hansel Stakes was won easily by Cool Bullet, who defeated a solid field which included Strapping Groom, Kera's Kitten, and Lucky Chuck. The final time was 1:08 4/5, which was quite good.
Out at Hawthorne, Windy City Cat proved best in a six furlong allowance race, winning by two lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. The final time of 1:11 2/5 was very slow, more than four seconds off of the track record, but you never know where the stakes winners might come from.
Then there was the mile and a sixteenth Transylvania Stakes on the turf at Keeneland. Sent off as the favorite, undefeated Nordic Truce got up for a neck win, with morning line favorite Macias finishing up next to last.
For the fillies, there was the one mile and a sixteenth Fair Grounds Oaks, which was won by Quiet Temper, who just got up to claim a half length victory from Champagne d'Oro, who led for much of the race. It was a dead heat for third between Sheer Beauty and Seeking the Title, and Jody Slew finished eighth. The latter's poor performance can be excused, as she was forced to miss training after getting cast in her stall.
Then there was the one mile Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. The winner was Orchestrator, who battled gamely with Age of Humor down the stretch to secure a neck win. Favored Helen Belen finished sixth, while second choice Cascading ended up last.
Out at Santa Anita, there was the six and a half furlong Santa Paula Stakes. The favorite was Sister Dawn, but I believe that La Nez could beat her. La Nez did beat her by a neck, but both were soundly defeating by runaway winner Tanda, the longshot in the five horse field at 6-1.
And last but not least, there was a maiden special weight race for TWO YEAR OLDS at Keeneland! I have been anticipating such a thing for over a month now, and I ended up picking the winner. I believed that Wetzel was going to win, and he did, securing an hard fought nose victory. The heavy favorite, Sweet William, ended up fourth after challenging for the lead.
So, it's going to be a great day of racing tomorrow. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
WOOD MEMORIAL (gr. I) ---- Aqueduct, Race 9, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
Of all the Triple Crown prep races this week, this one is probably the most solid. Four major players on the Trail turned out to do battle, along with two longshots who have the potential to hit the board, or maybe even win.
To begin with, there is the number one horse, Most Happy Fella. The son of Ecton Park has been improving ever so slightly in each start, but would need to really step up tomorrow to be in the mix. He has never started in a stakes race, but has raced at Aqueduct five times already. He will likely set the pace tomorrow. He will carry 123 pounds, the same as all of the other entries, and will be ridden by A. Napravnik.
Then there is the number two horse, Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again was very impressive in the Gotham Stakes, and he is expected to provide most of the competition for Eskendereya. However, it is possible that he could regress off of his last race, which could leave the door open for a longshot to steal his place. We'll see what he can do. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
This brings us to the number three horse Eskendereya. The son of Giant's Causeway is one of the current favorites for the Kentucky Derby and comes off of a tremendous run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes six weeks ago, where he destroyed Jackson Bend by eight and a half lengths. Like Awesome Act, it is possible that he could bounce off of his last race. If so, it's possible for a longshot to steal the race. He is the morning line favorite at odds of 4-5 and will be ridden by John Velazquez.
Then there is the number four horse, Schoolyard Dreams. The son of Stephen Got Even comes into tomorrow's race off of a nose loss to top Triple Crown candidate Odysseus, while finishing a half length in front of Super Saver. With a blazing :46 4/5 workout last Saturday, I think that he is ready to run the race of his life tomorrow. If anyone is going to upset the big two, I think that it will be him. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
Now we come to the number five horse, Jackson Bend. The son of Hear No Evil was running incredibly well at Calder last year, but has been unable to win in two starts this year, finishing second both times. I think he is ready to run his best race tomorrow, and with Calvin Borel in the saddle, I think that he is capable of upsetting the big two.
Finally, there is the number six horse Canivore. The son of Giant's Causeway comes into the Wood Memorial off of a seven length win in a $27,000 maiden race at Laurel Park. He has been improving in leaps and bounds and might have a shot at hitting the board if something drastic happens. He will be ridden by J. Shepherd.
So, here are my selections for the Wood Memorial. . .
1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Canivore
6 Most Happy Fella
I don't know. . . this is a tough race to figure out. Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, Eskendereya, and Jackson Bend are all pretty evenly matched, and if one of them doesn't fire, Carivore and Most Happy Fella are right there, waiting to pick up the pieces. I know that Eskendereya is a very good colt, but I don't think that he is going to duplicate his Fountain of Youth run. I think that Awesome Act is going to regress, but I think that Schoolyard Dreams is going to run his best race to date. I know that Jackson Bend has great talent, and I know that Calvin Borel is going to get a great race out of him, but I just don't think that he is going to get the distance. Canivore and Most Happy Fella are about equal, and both of them have a shot at hitting the board. It's going to be a great race. And it's going to be very influential.
SANTA ANITA DERBY (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 6, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)
Here it is --- the Santa Anita Derby. For many, this is the final chance for fine colts to prove that they are Triple Crown caliber. A tough field of ten has been drawn for this $750,000 prep race. Many of the colts here need to finish first or second to have any shot at making the Kentucky Derby. Those who don't finish in the top two will have to wait until the Preakness or the Belmont. Let's take a look at who's running.
First off, there is the number one horse Posse Power. The son of Posse most recently finished third behind Connemara in the El Camino Real Derby six weeks ago. He would have to really step up to contend here tomorrow, but who knows? He will carry 122 pounds, the same as everybody else, and will be ridden by L. Mawing.
Then there is the number two horse, Thomas Baines. The son of Johannesburg comes into the Santa Anita Derby off of a win in a one mile optional claiming race at this track just over a month ago. Prior to that, he finished sixth in the El Camino Real and third in the California Derby. Like Posse Power, he would need to show a lot of improvement to be in the mix. He will be ridden by J. Rosario.
Now we come to the number three horse, Who's Up. The son of Graeme Hall has not raced since winning the Generous Stakes on turf last November. He is perhaps the mystery colt in the race, for it is hard to say how well he will run.
This brings us to the number four horse Sidney's Candy. The son of Candy Ride has been very impressive so far, easily winning the grade II San Vicente on February 15th and fighting to the wire for victory in the grade II San Felipe Stakes three weeks ago. Both wins were in wire-to-wire fashion, which is going to be tough to do tomorrow. He's going to have to show another gear in the stretch if he wants to hold off Lookin at Lucky. He will be ridden by Joseph Talamo.
Then there is the number five horse, Setsuko. The son of Pleasantly Perfect most recently finished second to fellow Santa Anita Derby runner Alphie's Bet in the March 6th Sham Stakes. He is a very interesting colt, and may have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, and is actually trained by Richard Mandella, who won four Breeders' Cup races at this track in 2003.
Now we come to the number six horse Caracortado. The son of Cat Dreams was undefeated in five starts, which included an easy win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, before finishing third behind Sidney's Candy and Interactif in the San Felipe. However, in that race, he had very little pace to chase, which should not be a problem here tomorrow. He will be ridden by Paul Atkinson, who has ridden him in every one of his races so far.
This brings us to the morning line favorite, the colt everybody is talking about, the colt who is the current Kentucky Derby favorite. Lookin at Lucky. The son of Smart Strike has won six of seven races, his only loss coming by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after a nightmare trip, where he was carried six wide on the first turn and never got anywhere near the rail. He rebounded later that year to score in the CashCall Futurity last December, and then won the Rebel Stakes by a nose last March in his season debut. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez, he is going to be tough to beat. Should he win, he will become the first two year old champion to win the Santa Anita Derby the following year since Affirmed. It would also provide Garrett Gomez with his third consecutive win in this race. . .
Then there is the number eight horse Cardiff Giant. The son of Yankee Gentleman has already started twelve times, and has been rather consistent this year, hitting the board in two graded stakes races before running fifth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes. He would need to show something extra to hit the board here, but you never know what might happen.
Now we come to the number nine horse Skipshot. The son of Skip Away comes into the Santa Anita Derby off of a nose win in a one mile allowance race at Golden Gate Fields about three weeks ago. His final workout for this race was very good, and he may be overlooked by many. I think that he has a shot at getting a piece of it. He will be ridden by F. Alvarado.
Finally, there is the number ten horse Alphie's Bet. The son of Tribal Rule was very impressive while winning the Sham Stakes four weeks ago, and is one of the main contenders here tomorrow. With Alex Solis in the saddle, I will be watching him very closely.
So here are my selections for Santa Anita Derby. . .
1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines
It was tough figuring out who would finish fifth through tenth, but I never paused for the top four. I believe that Lookin at Lucky is going to win rather easily tomorrow, with Caracortado redeeming himself with a good run. Alphie's Bet obviously has talent, but breaking from post ten isn't the greatest thing, and I'm just not hooked on him yet. I don't think the Sidney's Candy is going to hold on today, but I do think that Who's Up is overlooked and will run a big one at huge odds. Finally, I may have Setsuko a bit low, but I'm just not convinced that the Sham Stakes was that strong. We'll see what happens. No matter who wins, it's going to be a great race.
ILLINOIS DERBY (gr. II) ---- Hawthorne, Race 7, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Dirt)
Of all the grand three year old races being run this week, I believe that this one I am most looking forward to. It has drawn a very nice eight horse field, of which every entry has a shot at winning. Not only is the purse a very large $500,000, but the winner will receive $300,000, which is more than enough to make it to the Kentucky Derby. I believe that a major Triple Crown contender is going to come from this race, just like Musket Man last year. Let's take a look at who's running. . .
I'll begin with the number one horse, American Lion. The son of Tiznow showed great potential last year after winning the grade III Hollywood Prevue Stakes at Hollywood Park, but has been rather disappointing this year, finishing third behind Caracortado and Dave in Dixie in the Robert B. Lewis and fourth behind Sidney's Candy, Interactif, and Caracortado in the San Felipe. However, he is bred to be a dirt horse, and is expected to run a better race tomorrow. He will be ridden by David Flores and may have a shot if the pace is slow. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as all of the other entries.
Then there is the number two horse, Stephen's Got Hope. The son of Stephen Got Even finished fifth, beaten fine lengths, in the San Felipe Stakes, but has a shot at turning in a better effort in his first start on dirt. He will be ridden by J. Garcia. I will be watching this one closely.
Now we come to the number three horse, Boulder Creek. Like Stephen's Got Hope, he was very disappointing in his last race, finishing fifth, beaten four and three quarter lengths, in the nine furlong Sham Stakes. However, he does have a chance to improve in his first start on dirt. He will be ridden by C. Emigh.
This brings us to the number four horse, Yawanna Twist. The son of Yonaguska comes into the Illinois Derby off of a runner up performance to top Kentucky Derby contender Awesome Act in the Gotham Stakes four weeks ago. He is the 4-1 morning line third choice, but I think he is one of the top contenders. He will be ridden by Edgar Prado, who rode Barbaro to victory in the 2006 Kentucky Derby.
But we mustn’t forget Turf Melody. The son of Maria’s Mon will be making his tenth start. Hawthorne will be the tenth race track at which he has raced. Ridden tomorrow by Jeremy Rose, he comes into the Illinois Derby off of a fourth place finish to Awesome Act in the Gotham. His morning line odds are 6-1, but I think that he is one of the major contenders.
This brings us to the number six horse, Dave in Dixie. The son of Dixie Union finished second to Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes before ending up sixth, beaten by nearly six lengths, in the San Felipe. However, that poor showing can be explained by the lack of pace in that race, which I thoroughly discussed in one of my other posts. I'm willing to give him a shot at redeeming himself tomorrow. He will be ridden by J. Valdivia, Jr.
Now we come to the number seven horse, the morning line favorite. He is Backtalk, who I believe is the most successful son of Smarty Jones to date. With $170,000 in graded earnings, all of it coming from his fine summer 2009 form, he is probably going to make the Kentucky Derby no matter what he does today. But a good effort tomorrow could make him one of the favorites. In 2009, he won the Bashford Manor Stakes and the Sanford Stakes before running fourth in the Champagne and eighth in the Breeders' Futurity. Given some time off, he rebounded with a fine win in the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes on February 26th despite some traffic issues. His final workout for the Illinois Derby was six furlongs in 1:09 3/5, which has raised some concern to how well he will run tomorrow, but I think that he is ready to go. He will be ridden by M. Mena.
Finally, we come to the number eight horse Game Ball. The son of Sky Mesa is two-for-two in 2010, his most recent win coming in an optional claiming race on March 5th down in Florida. He is probably out classed here, but he may be able to throw in a good run. He will be ridden by W. Martinez.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek
It was a tough race to figure out, but I believe that Backtalk can win despite the fast workout. American Lion has obvious talent, but has run into some trouble in his last two starts. I think he will improve on dirt and the pace should be slow enough for him to hang on to second. I have liked Yawanna Twist since the Gotham, but I'm not sure if he is ready for this race. He needs to finish second to have any shot at making the Kentucky Derby, so we'll see what happens. As for Dave in Dixie, I have always liked this colt, but I don't think that he is going to get there tomorrow. To make the Kentucky Derby, he would have to win, so a lot hangs on the wire at Hawthorne. As for Turf Melody, he is obviously a very tough colt, and he is one of my personal favorites here, but I just can't see him winning against this field. As for the other three, they all have a shot at hitting the board, but I can't really see any of them winning. But perhaps Stephen's Got Hope could surprise everyone. We'll see.
Those are my final thoughts on the big three.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
As usual, there are other great races this Saturday that I should mention, and this lot deserves a lot of attention for it is a very good set of "undercard" races.
To begin with, there is the seven furlong grade III Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct for three year olds. The big name is Eightfiveinafifty, who has not raced since blowing the turn in the Whirlaway Stakes early last February. He has been training very well since the incident, and is back to a one turn race, trying to prove once again that he is a top class colt who deserves attention. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. His main competition may come from El Rocco, who will carry co-top weight of 120 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Personally, I like the name Noah's Dream, and believe that Casaneda will be in the mix. It should be a good race. Perhaps the world record is in danger. . . (ha ha)
Next up is the grade I Ashland Stakes at Keeneland for three year old fillies. The race has drawn the Eclipse Champion for two year old filly She Be Wild, as well as the very tough Negligee, who beat She Be Wild in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes.
Of course, She Be Wild should be able to present herself well, but she comes into the Ashland off of a very poor effort in the Forward Gal Stakes last January, finishing fifth, ten lengths behind runaway winner Bickersons. That was her first start on dirt, but she returns to synthetics tomorrow.
As for Negligee, I believe that she will do a lot more than run well. I believe she is ready to run a tremendous race and probably beat She Be Wild. Other contenders are Protesting Beautician, Evening Jewel, and Upperline. It's going to be a great race, but I do think that Negligee is going to be the winner, with Evening Jewel running a fine race as well. Apple Charlotte could also be in the mix.
Finally, it's worth mentioning that the seven furlong grade I Carter Handicap is to be run right after the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The race is for three year olds and up, but of course, it drew no three year olds. I'm mentioning it because last year's Illinois Derby winner Musket Man is back for another shot at winning a grade I. His main competition is expected to be Munnings, who is actually the morning line favorite at 4-5. Both colts battled with Rachel Alexandra at one point in their lifetime, with Musket Man finishing third to her in the Preakness and Munnings finishing third behind the Horse of the Year in the Haskell Invitational. It should be a great race.
With all that said, I shall now recap what happened last week, beginning with the Louisiana Derby.
RACE RECAPS
The Lousiana Derby did not go as I thought it would. I have been a Ron the Greek fan since he won the Lecomte, and I thought that today would be his day. It wasn't, as he finished sixth behind Mission Impazible, who scored a three quarter length win over a very stubborn A Little Warm. Drosselmeyer ended up third, with Risen Start winner Discreetly Mine in fourth.
So here are the results. . .
1 Mission Impazible
2 A Little Warm
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Discreetly Mine
5 Stay Put
6 Ron the Greek
7 The Program
8 Mister Marti Gras
9 Fly Down
10 Wow Wow Wow
11 Hotep
12 Island Soul
13 Backtrack
. . . versus my selections.
1 Ron the Greek
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 Stay Put
6 The Program
7 A Little Warm
8 Backtrack
9 Mission Impazible
10 Mister Marti Gras
11 Wow Wow Wow
12 Island Soul
13 Hotep
Now, it was a very close race, with only about twelve lengths separating the twelve finishers. (Backtrack was eased.) From first to ninth was only 6 3/4 lengths, and the top four finishers were only one and a quarter lengths apart. That said, I was completely wrong about Mission Impazible, who made Dublin, Conveyance, and Cardiff Giant look that much better, as those three beat him soundly in the Southwest Stakes last February. I was right about Discreetly Mine not getting the distance, and that Drosselmeyer would finish third, but Ron the Greek just didn't put in his final rally. However, he was beaten by only three and a half lengths, and I would still like him in the Kentucky Derby if he had the earnings to go there, which he doesn't. But perhaps he is still a Belmont Stakes horse.
As for other race results, Dean's Kitten won the Lane's End Stakes, stamping his ticket to the Kentucky Derby as he destroyed Northern Giant and Connemara fairly easily. Double's Partner, who has beaten Lentenor in a nine furlong turf allowance race, finished eighth. I don't think that Dean's Kitten is Triple Crown caliber, but it's hard to say for sure.
Then there was the rich Sunland Derby in New Mexico. Conveyance was the heavy favorite, and rightfully so, but he ended up finishing second, three lengths behind the 12-1 upset winner Endorsement. The latter finished the nine furlongs in 1:48 2/5, which was only a fifth of a second off of the forty-nine year old track record. Tempted to Tapit was another three lengths back in third. So Endorsement moves on to everyone's list of top Kentucky Derby contenders, while Conveyance drops a few notches.
But that's not all. In the Fantasy Stakes, which happened only a few hours ago, Blind Luck proved that she may be even better on dirt, winning rather easily by three lengths in the four horse field. Just remember that Rachel Alexandra and Eight Belles won the Fantasy Stakes on their way to stardom.
Then there were a bunch of little races all over the country. The seven and a half furlong on the turf Grindstone Stakes was snatched up by Working for Hops, the one mile and a sixteenth Rushaway Stakes was claimed by Exhi in nearly wire-to-wire fashion, the six furlong Hansel Stakes was won easily by Cool Bullet, who defeated a solid field which included Strapping Groom, Kera's Kitten, and Lucky Chuck. The final time was 1:08 4/5, which was quite good.
Out at Hawthorne, Windy City Cat proved best in a six furlong allowance race, winning by two lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. The final time of 1:11 2/5 was very slow, more than four seconds off of the track record, but you never know where the stakes winners might come from.
Then there was the mile and a sixteenth Transylvania Stakes on the turf at Keeneland. Sent off as the favorite, undefeated Nordic Truce got up for a neck win, with morning line favorite Macias finishing up next to last.
For the fillies, there was the one mile and a sixteenth Fair Grounds Oaks, which was won by Quiet Temper, who just got up to claim a half length victory from Champagne d'Oro, who led for much of the race. It was a dead heat for third between Sheer Beauty and Seeking the Title, and Jody Slew finished eighth. The latter's poor performance can be excused, as she was forced to miss training after getting cast in her stall.
Then there was the one mile Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. The winner was Orchestrator, who battled gamely with Age of Humor down the stretch to secure a neck win. Favored Helen Belen finished sixth, while second choice Cascading ended up last.
Out at Santa Anita, there was the six and a half furlong Santa Paula Stakes. The favorite was Sister Dawn, but I believe that La Nez could beat her. La Nez did beat her by a neck, but both were soundly defeating by runaway winner Tanda, the longshot in the five horse field at 6-1.
And last but not least, there was a maiden special weight race for TWO YEAR OLDS at Keeneland! I have been anticipating such a thing for over a month now, and I ended up picking the winner. I believed that Wetzel was going to win, and he did, securing an hard fought nose victory. The heavy favorite, Sweet William, ended up fourth after challenging for the lead.
So, it's going to be a great day of racing tomorrow. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
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