Numerous influential races that have affected the Triple Crown Trail were run last weekend. Stay Thirsty, Norman Asbjornson, and others turned in remarkable performances which earned them great accolades. Others, such as Dialed In, lost a little luster through disappointing defeats.
Here are some brief recaps of last week’s racing action.
FEATURE RACE RECAP: The Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I)
The Santa Anita Oaks winner typically ends up as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks. Not this year.
The heavy favorite was Turbulent Descent, winner of the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes last December. Although she had lost her 2011 debut to Zazu in the Las Virgenes Stakes, she was expected to rebound in a big way in the Oaks.
However, Zazu would be back to try and beat her again. The late-running filly had proven to be no match for Turbulent Descent in 2010, losing to that filly on two different occasions. However, since being switched to dirt she has proven to be a magnificent filly, and defeated Turbulent Descent in the Las Virgenes as mentioned above.
The finish of the Santa Anita Oaks would come down to those two, and no others would matter.
Quickest out of the gate was May Day Rose, who went straight to the lead under Martin Garcia. She was being tracked by A Z Warrior in second, with Kilograeme racing right behind them in third. Turbulent Descent had settled into fourth under David Flores, and Zazu was last of all.
The opening fractions were moderate, at least for Santa Anita Park, with May Day Rose leading the way through an opening quarter mile in :23.31 and a half-mile in :46.67. The positions remained unchanged during this time, with only the margins between runners fluctuating.
However, things began to change after that. Turbulent Descent began to inch closer while three wide. Zazu was following her. Kilograeme was forced to steady and drop back to last. May Day Rose still led the way through three-quarters of a mile in 1:10.67, but she was about to be confronted on all sides.
Turning for home, Turbulent Descent passed the leaders and began to draw away. Passing the eighth pole, she was two lengths in front of the field. But Zazu was closing like a rocket on the outside. With every stride the gray filly drew closer. But Turbulent Descent proved game to the finish, desperately hanging on to win by a neck. The final time was a quick 1:41.05.
A Z Warrior finished third, 5 ½ lengths behind Zazu. It was another 5 ¼ lengths back to Kilograeme, with May Day Rose coming home last.
After the race, Turbulent Descent’s trainer, Mike Puype, announced that his star filly will not be running in the Kentucky Oaks. He explained that the distance is too far for her. I reluctantly agree, for as strong a performance Turbulent Descent’s Santa Anita Oaks victory was, it does appear as though she would be more effective at slightly shorter distances, such as seven furlongs. The Acorn Stakes and Test Stakes this summer have been mentioned as potential goals.
And thus here are the results:
1 Turbulent Descent
2 Zazu
3 A Z Warrior
4 Kilograeme
5 May Day Rose
Here were my picks:
1 Turbulent Descent
2 Zazu
3 Kilograeme
4 A Z Warrior
5 May Day Rose
And here were J.R.’s picks:
1 Zazu
2 Turbulent Descent
3 May Day Rose
4 A Z Warrior
5 Kilograeme
This was one of the races which enabled me to take a narrow lead over J.R. our in Handicapping Contest. Had Zazu beaten Turbulent Descent to the wire, he would lead me now by nine points. As it is, I hold the lead by a single point. We’ll see if I can maintain the lead during this coming week!
OTHER RACE RESULTS
February 26th
• I completely forgot to mention the Turf Paradise Derby on my last race recaps post. This was unfortunate, for it was a race worth mentioning. Still, better late than never! The heavy favorite was Indian Winter, but it was a 40-1 shot who won. Beer Meister, twenty-two lengths behind in the early going, rallied furiously to win by two lengths. Indian Winter ran a disappointing third.
March 5th
• The Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct was won by the favorite, yet was nearly upset by a huge longshot. Stay Thirsty, sent off as the odds-on favorite, rallied strongly in the stretch despite being wide on both turns to win the event by 3 ¼ lengths. However, 47.50-1 shot Norman Asbjornson nearly pulled off a shocking victory, fighting on in the stretch to finish a game second. Toby’s Corner, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes, ran third. The Florida Derby is next for the winner.
• The Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes on the Gotham undercard ended with somewhat surprising results. Sensational Slam, sent off as the third choice, rallied with a huge run in deep stretch to win the six furlong event by three-quarters of a length in 1:10.61. Diski Dance, the fourth choice in the field of five, held on for second. Favored Rift finished a disappointing fourth.
• Positive Response has stamped himself as a serious contender for the Spiral Stakes later this month. Sent off as the narrow favorite in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes, he went straight to the lead and turned back all challengers en route to a decisive seven length victory. The final time for the mile and a sixteenth was 1:45.13. Taptowne ran second, with Son of Posse third and Twinspired fourth.
• The fifth race at Gulfstream Park, a maiden special weight, yielded interesting results. Break Up the Game, a colt that I’ve had my eye on for some time, closed with an incredible rush to win the race by three-quarters of a length. He closed his final eighth of a mile in about twelve seconds, and appears to be a potential contender for the Belmont Stakes.
• Wilburn looked like a future star in a maiden special weight at Santa Anita Park, rallying from just off the pace to win the 6-1/2 furlong race by 3 ¼ lengths. The final time was 1:13.95. Chico d’Oro, the heavy favorite, ran a disappointing third.
• Another maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park warrants attention. Casino Host rallied from off the pace to win the nine furlong event by 1 ¼ lengths in 1:48.75. He looked good doing it and could end up being a serious contender in top races later this year. It was a very close race, for the second through eighth place finishers were separated by only 1 ¾ lengths!
• Smoke It Right brought his undefeated record to four straight wins in the Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park. Sent off as the favorite, he went straight to the lead and never looked back, drawing away in deep stretch to win by 1 ¼ lengths. The final time was a moderate 1:11.26, but he looks like a colt with a bright future!
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label May Day Rose. Show all posts
Showing posts with label May Day Rose. Show all posts
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Saturday, February 05, 2011
ZAZU WINS THE LAS VIRGENES!
Zazu won the second race of her career today, turning back the run of 2-5 favorite Turbulent Descent to win the Las Virgenes Stakes by a length.
The early pace was set by May Day Rose and California Nectar, who opened up a seven-length early lead while running the opening quarter mile in :21 2/5. In the meantime, Zazu and Turbulent Descent were racing far back, some eleven or twelve lengths off the lead.
Moving toward the far turn Zazu began to advance along the inside while Turbulent Descent traveled three wide. They quickly passed a tiring California Nectar and set their sites on May Day Rose.
As the field turned for home, Zazu and Turbulent Descent both blew past May Day Rose and hooked up in a stretch duel. It looked for a moment like Turbulent Descent was going to draw off and win, but Zazu turned her back under strong urging from rider Joel Rosario and won by a length, stopping the clock in 1:34 4/5.
The winner is trained by John Sadler and owned by Mr. and Mrs. Jerome Moss.
-Keelerman
The early pace was set by May Day Rose and California Nectar, who opened up a seven-length early lead while running the opening quarter mile in :21 2/5. In the meantime, Zazu and Turbulent Descent were racing far back, some eleven or twelve lengths off the lead.
Moving toward the far turn Zazu began to advance along the inside while Turbulent Descent traveled three wide. They quickly passed a tiring California Nectar and set their sites on May Day Rose.
As the field turned for home, Zazu and Turbulent Descent both blew past May Day Rose and hooked up in a stretch duel. It looked for a moment like Turbulent Descent was going to draw off and win, but Zazu turned her back under strong urging from rider Joel Rosario and won by a length, stopping the clock in 1:34 4/5.
The winner is trained by John Sadler and owned by Mr. and Mrs. Jerome Moss.
-Keelerman
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 11th, 2011 ---- Race Recaps
The Kentucky Derby is almost here! . . . Okay, that's a stretch. It's only January. I'll have to wait until February before I can say that it is almost here. :-)
Getting serious, there were several fascinating races run last weekend, with the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes being most important due to its graded status. However, the race that may end up having the most influence on the Triple Crown was an allowance race last Friday at Gulfstream Park. But before I get to it, I must recap the feature race from last week, the aforementioned Santa Ysabel.
FEATURE RACE RECAP ---- The Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III)
The field for this graded stakes race was short to begin with, as only five fillies had entered. It became even shorter when two of them scratched, leaving only three runners in the race.
The heavy favorite, at 1-20, was May Day Rose. She was coming off of a good fourth behind Turbulent Descent in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes and was making a drop in class. Although she did not win like a 1-20 shot should, she still coasted home in a fairly easy performance.
Scarlet Starlet, the longshot at nearly 25-1, broke fastest but May Day Rose was quickly sent to the lead by Rafael Bejarano. Scarlet Starlet was content to sit back in second, a length in front of Bluegrass Chatter.
They continued in this order for much of the remainder of the race. Through fractions of :23 2/5, :47 2/5, and 1:11 2/5 the only thing that changed was the distance between the three horses. With five-sixteenths of a mile to run, May Day Rose held a half-length advantage over Scarlet Starlet. Bluegrass Chatter was another 1 1/2 lengths behind her.
May Day Rose then accelerated away from Scarlet Starlet and drew off to a 2 1/2 length lead at the eighth pole. She appeared to be on her way to an easy victory, but Bluegrass Chatter was beginning to rally. Although the latter closed fairly well, she never threatened May Day Rose, who hung on for a 1 1/4 length victory. Scarlet Starlet finished third, beaten just a neck for second and a 1 1/4 lengths for everything.
So the results were. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Scarlet Starlet
. . . and here were my picks.
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty (scratched)
4 Zazu (scratched)
5 Scarlet Starlet
Therefore, I managed to pick the exact order of finish. Of course, just about everybody else did too, but still. . .
OTHER RACE RECAPS
As I mentioned above, there was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Friday that may yield a serious Triple Crown contender or two.
The race was one-mile in distance over the main track. A field of nine was entered, with Shadow Warrior the mild favorite at 2.10-1. El Grayling was also well liked at 2.70-1 and Black N Beauty was respected at 2.90-1.
Fastest out of the gate was El Grayling, but he wanted no part in the lead, taking back to seventh in the early going. It ended up being Black N Beauty who set the pace despite breaking eighth. He was followed by Dr. Tom G and Hammock Beach, the fifth and sixth choices respectively. Printing Press, at 4.70-1, was biding his time in fourth while Shadow Warrior raced sixth.
The pace was quite honest, with Black N Beauty playing a game of catch-me-if-you-can while carving fractions of :24 1/5 and :46 4/5. Under Kent Desormeaux, he continued to lead the way by a length until the quarter pole. Having run three quarters of a mile in 1:12 flat, it would have been no surprise to see him fade. After all, Printing Press, Shadow Warrior, and El Grayling were all lined up behind him making their bids and it would be very difficult to stem them off.
However, it is obvious that Black N Beauty is a nice horse, for not only did he stem off all of their runs but actually drew away throughout the stretch. He hit the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front of Printing Press, who finished a decisive 2 3/4 lengths clear of Shadow Warrior. A neck behind the latter was El Grayling, who just missed third by a neck. No other runner was within six lengths of the leading quartet.
Understandably, Black N Beauty did finish the race rather slowly, completing his last quarter mile in :25.46 and his last half-mile in :50.57. However, his :46 4/5 opening half mile was very good indeed. The performance likely earned him a spot in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next month, where we will likely learn just how talented he is.
The final race that must be mentioned is the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which was run on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. A six-furlong main track event, it drew eight runners with the favorite being Gangsterontherun. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were also well bet. However, none of them would win.
Cane Garden Bay broke fastest, but it was Gangsterontherun who raced away to take the early lead. He rattled off a testing :21 3/5 opening quarter mile while clearing the field by over a length. His closest pursuer was Determinato, a 14-1 shot. Cane Garden Bay and Leave of Absence were racing in fifth and sixth respectively.
Gangsteronthrun continued to lead the way through a half-mile in :44 3/5. However, he was then tackled by Determinato, who wrestled the lead away from the formed passing the eighth pole. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were rallying, but they both appeared to be soundly beaten.
Inside the eighth pole Gangsterontherun gave way, leaving Determinato on the lead. Leave of Absence charged relentlessly in the stretch, but fell 1 1/4 lengths short. Leave of Absence managed to rally for third, just nosing out Gangsterontherun for that spot. War For Gus, a 19-1 shot, finished fifth after staying fairly close to the pace.
Next Saturday the first really important Triple Crown prep race will be run, as Tapizar and Anthony's Cross take on each other in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). There will be several other strong prep races as well, including the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes for fillies and the Pasco Stakes for colts at Tampa Bay Downs. It's going to be the best weekend of 2011 so far!
-Keelerman
Getting serious, there were several fascinating races run last weekend, with the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes being most important due to its graded status. However, the race that may end up having the most influence on the Triple Crown was an allowance race last Friday at Gulfstream Park. But before I get to it, I must recap the feature race from last week, the aforementioned Santa Ysabel.
FEATURE RACE RECAP ---- The Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III)
The field for this graded stakes race was short to begin with, as only five fillies had entered. It became even shorter when two of them scratched, leaving only three runners in the race.
The heavy favorite, at 1-20, was May Day Rose. She was coming off of a good fourth behind Turbulent Descent in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes and was making a drop in class. Although she did not win like a 1-20 shot should, she still coasted home in a fairly easy performance.
Scarlet Starlet, the longshot at nearly 25-1, broke fastest but May Day Rose was quickly sent to the lead by Rafael Bejarano. Scarlet Starlet was content to sit back in second, a length in front of Bluegrass Chatter.
They continued in this order for much of the remainder of the race. Through fractions of :23 2/5, :47 2/5, and 1:11 2/5 the only thing that changed was the distance between the three horses. With five-sixteenths of a mile to run, May Day Rose held a half-length advantage over Scarlet Starlet. Bluegrass Chatter was another 1 1/2 lengths behind her.
May Day Rose then accelerated away from Scarlet Starlet and drew off to a 2 1/2 length lead at the eighth pole. She appeared to be on her way to an easy victory, but Bluegrass Chatter was beginning to rally. Although the latter closed fairly well, she never threatened May Day Rose, who hung on for a 1 1/4 length victory. Scarlet Starlet finished third, beaten just a neck for second and a 1 1/4 lengths for everything.
So the results were. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Scarlet Starlet
. . . and here were my picks.
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty (scratched)
4 Zazu (scratched)
5 Scarlet Starlet
Therefore, I managed to pick the exact order of finish. Of course, just about everybody else did too, but still. . .
OTHER RACE RECAPS
As I mentioned above, there was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Friday that may yield a serious Triple Crown contender or two.
The race was one-mile in distance over the main track. A field of nine was entered, with Shadow Warrior the mild favorite at 2.10-1. El Grayling was also well liked at 2.70-1 and Black N Beauty was respected at 2.90-1.
Fastest out of the gate was El Grayling, but he wanted no part in the lead, taking back to seventh in the early going. It ended up being Black N Beauty who set the pace despite breaking eighth. He was followed by Dr. Tom G and Hammock Beach, the fifth and sixth choices respectively. Printing Press, at 4.70-1, was biding his time in fourth while Shadow Warrior raced sixth.
The pace was quite honest, with Black N Beauty playing a game of catch-me-if-you-can while carving fractions of :24 1/5 and :46 4/5. Under Kent Desormeaux, he continued to lead the way by a length until the quarter pole. Having run three quarters of a mile in 1:12 flat, it would have been no surprise to see him fade. After all, Printing Press, Shadow Warrior, and El Grayling were all lined up behind him making their bids and it would be very difficult to stem them off.
However, it is obvious that Black N Beauty is a nice horse, for not only did he stem off all of their runs but actually drew away throughout the stretch. He hit the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front of Printing Press, who finished a decisive 2 3/4 lengths clear of Shadow Warrior. A neck behind the latter was El Grayling, who just missed third by a neck. No other runner was within six lengths of the leading quartet.
Understandably, Black N Beauty did finish the race rather slowly, completing his last quarter mile in :25.46 and his last half-mile in :50.57. However, his :46 4/5 opening half mile was very good indeed. The performance likely earned him a spot in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next month, where we will likely learn just how talented he is.
The final race that must be mentioned is the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which was run on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. A six-furlong main track event, it drew eight runners with the favorite being Gangsterontherun. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were also well bet. However, none of them would win.
Cane Garden Bay broke fastest, but it was Gangsterontherun who raced away to take the early lead. He rattled off a testing :21 3/5 opening quarter mile while clearing the field by over a length. His closest pursuer was Determinato, a 14-1 shot. Cane Garden Bay and Leave of Absence were racing in fifth and sixth respectively.
Gangsteronthrun continued to lead the way through a half-mile in :44 3/5. However, he was then tackled by Determinato, who wrestled the lead away from the formed passing the eighth pole. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were rallying, but they both appeared to be soundly beaten.
Inside the eighth pole Gangsterontherun gave way, leaving Determinato on the lead. Leave of Absence charged relentlessly in the stretch, but fell 1 1/4 lengths short. Leave of Absence managed to rally for third, just nosing out Gangsterontherun for that spot. War For Gus, a 19-1 shot, finished fifth after staying fairly close to the pace.
Next Saturday the first really important Triple Crown prep race will be run, as Tapizar and Anthony's Cross take on each other in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). There will be several other strong prep races as well, including the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes for fillies and the Pasco Stakes for colts at Tampa Bay Downs. It's going to be the best weekend of 2011 so far!
-Keelerman
Friday, January 07, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 7th, 2011
I hope you are ready. There are a couple of really fascinating stakes races for three-year-olds coming up this weekend. They are the Spectacular Bid Stakes, a six-furlong sprint at Gulfstream Park, and the grade III Santa Ysable Stakes, a mile and a sixteenth race at Santa Anita for fillies. Both races have drawn strong fields, with the Santa Ysable being this week’s feature race.
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III)
8.5 furlongs on dirt, for three-year-old fillies
Although the race only drew five runners, the Santa Ysable Stakes promises to have an impact on the remainder of the year. Last year’s running of the race also drew only five horses, but the runner-up that year was Evening Jewel, who turned into a multiple grade I winner by the end of the year.
So you might say that this field has the potential to turn out a star.
The favorite will likely be May Day Rose, a daughter of Rockport Harbor out of May Day Bluff. A front-running filly trained by Bob Baffert, she was very impressive when winning the Sharp Cat Stakes on November 7th by over four lengths. She ran an excellent race in the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes last time out, battling for the early lead before tiring very late in the stretch to finish fourth, beaten just over three lengths by the highly promising Turbulent Descent. She has recorded one workout since then, going a half-mile in :47 2/5. To be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, she will carry 118 pounds, the same as all of the other fillies. She drew gate four.
Plum Pretty, also trained by Bob Baffert, could be a contender too. Although she has only made one start, it was a very impressive one. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of Liszy, she broke slowly but raced up to take the lead and held it all the way to the wire, scoring by a head while completing the six furlongs in 1:10 3/5. However, that was on October 27th over the Hollywood Park main track, and it is hard to say how she will perform of a traditional dirt surface. On the other hand, she has recorded three works over the Santa Anita main track, the last one being five furlongs in :59 3/5. She will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and has drawn gate five.
Zazu, a daughter of Tapit out of Rhumb Line, broke her maiden with a sharp tally in a 6-1/2 furlong race at the Oak Tree meet on October 15th. She then ran a strong second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes, finishing over three lengths clear of the third-place finisher. However, in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, she failed to menace whatsoever, finishing a disappointing fifth. I can’t see her catching May Day Rose here, but she should be in with a chance in the stretch. Trained by John Sadler, she will be ridden by Joe Talamo and drew gate three
Scarlet Starlet, who drew gate two, will likely be one of the longshots. A daughter of Congrats out of Red Hot Star, she broke her maiden first asking in a wire-to-wire performance, scoring by a half-length at odds of nearly 30-1 in a six-furlong turf event. However, when tried in a one-mile main track stakes race in the Corte Madera Stakes, she ran sixth at odds of 11-1, beaten slightly more than three lengths by Cathy’s Crunches. I can’t see her winning this race based off of that performance. She will be ridden by Martin Pedroza and is trained by Doug O’Neill.
Bluegrass Chatter will likely be the other longshot. A daughter of Bluegrass Cat out of Chatter Chatter, it took her three tries to break her maiden, finally breaking through with a nose victory last time out going a mile and a sixteenth over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. The performance was actually very good, as she rallied from far back while chasing a slow pace to win. With enough pace in front of her tomorrow, she might be able to rally strongly enough to make her presence felt. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and drew the rail.
It’s a fun race to handicap, and this is what I come with. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty
4 Zazu
5 Scarlet Starlet
I do believe that May Day Rose is the best horse in the race and will get an ideal trip. However, there should be enough pace for Bluegrass Chatter to rally in the stretch. Plum Pretty looks like a promising filly, but she may be in over her head at this point in her career.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park could potentially have a major influence on the Triple Crown Trail. After all, last year’s field was won by A Little Warm, who finished second in the Louisiana Derby and won the Jim Dandy Stakes. Fourth that day was Discreetly Mine, who ended up in the Kentucky Derby where he ran poorly before becoming one of the nation’s top three-year-old sprinters.
This year’s edition, although it failed to draw a stakes winner, could end up having that same influence. The morning line favorite, Leave of Absence, looks like a potential monster. Although he could only manage a third place finish in his first start, he came through strongly in his second start, a six-furlong maiden special weight race on November 7th. Rated just off the pace by jockey Rajiv Maragh, he took the lead just past the sixteenth pole and was hand urged to 1 ¼ length victory. He stopped the clock in a brilliant 1:09 2/5. If he repeats that effort tomorrow, he should win with ease.
The other horse that is expected to run well is Gangstersontherun. Like Leave of Absence, he lost his first start, finishing second, but turned in a brilliant performance second time out. Sent off as the favorite in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Parx Racing, he broke quickly and was sent straight to the lead. He never looked back en route to a nine length victory in :57 flat.
Cane Garden Bay, 8-1 on the morning line, is a colt that I will be watching. I picked him to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) on November 27th, but he ran a disappointing fifth that day. If the pace is rapid tomorrow, it could set up his late run very well.
Be sure to come back next week for my analysis of the Sham Stakes (gr. III), Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II), California Derby, and other great races. It’s the first really big weekend for three-year-olds of 2011 and it’s going to be an exciting two days!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III)
8.5 furlongs on dirt, for three-year-old fillies
Although the race only drew five runners, the Santa Ysable Stakes promises to have an impact on the remainder of the year. Last year’s running of the race also drew only five horses, but the runner-up that year was Evening Jewel, who turned into a multiple grade I winner by the end of the year.
So you might say that this field has the potential to turn out a star.
The favorite will likely be May Day Rose, a daughter of Rockport Harbor out of May Day Bluff. A front-running filly trained by Bob Baffert, she was very impressive when winning the Sharp Cat Stakes on November 7th by over four lengths. She ran an excellent race in the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes last time out, battling for the early lead before tiring very late in the stretch to finish fourth, beaten just over three lengths by the highly promising Turbulent Descent. She has recorded one workout since then, going a half-mile in :47 2/5. To be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, she will carry 118 pounds, the same as all of the other fillies. She drew gate four.
Plum Pretty, also trained by Bob Baffert, could be a contender too. Although she has only made one start, it was a very impressive one. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of Liszy, she broke slowly but raced up to take the lead and held it all the way to the wire, scoring by a head while completing the six furlongs in 1:10 3/5. However, that was on October 27th over the Hollywood Park main track, and it is hard to say how she will perform of a traditional dirt surface. On the other hand, she has recorded three works over the Santa Anita main track, the last one being five furlongs in :59 3/5. She will be ridden by Garrett Gomez and has drawn gate five.
Zazu, a daughter of Tapit out of Rhumb Line, broke her maiden with a sharp tally in a 6-1/2 furlong race at the Oak Tree meet on October 15th. She then ran a strong second to Turbulent Descent in the Moccasin Stakes, finishing over three lengths clear of the third-place finisher. However, in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, she failed to menace whatsoever, finishing a disappointing fifth. I can’t see her catching May Day Rose here, but she should be in with a chance in the stretch. Trained by John Sadler, she will be ridden by Joe Talamo and drew gate three
Scarlet Starlet, who drew gate two, will likely be one of the longshots. A daughter of Congrats out of Red Hot Star, she broke her maiden first asking in a wire-to-wire performance, scoring by a half-length at odds of nearly 30-1 in a six-furlong turf event. However, when tried in a one-mile main track stakes race in the Corte Madera Stakes, she ran sixth at odds of 11-1, beaten slightly more than three lengths by Cathy’s Crunches. I can’t see her winning this race based off of that performance. She will be ridden by Martin Pedroza and is trained by Doug O’Neill.
Bluegrass Chatter will likely be the other longshot. A daughter of Bluegrass Cat out of Chatter Chatter, it took her three tries to break her maiden, finally breaking through with a nose victory last time out going a mile and a sixteenth over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track. The performance was actually very good, as she rallied from far back while chasing a slow pace to win. With enough pace in front of her tomorrow, she might be able to rally strongly enough to make her presence felt. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, she is to be ridden by Joel Rosario and drew the rail.
It’s a fun race to handicap, and this is what I come with. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty
4 Zazu
5 Scarlet Starlet
I do believe that May Day Rose is the best horse in the race and will get an ideal trip. However, there should be enough pace for Bluegrass Chatter to rally in the stretch. Plum Pretty looks like a promising filly, but she may be in over her head at this point in her career.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park could potentially have a major influence on the Triple Crown Trail. After all, last year’s field was won by A Little Warm, who finished second in the Louisiana Derby and won the Jim Dandy Stakes. Fourth that day was Discreetly Mine, who ended up in the Kentucky Derby where he ran poorly before becoming one of the nation’s top three-year-old sprinters.
This year’s edition, although it failed to draw a stakes winner, could end up having that same influence. The morning line favorite, Leave of Absence, looks like a potential monster. Although he could only manage a third place finish in his first start, he came through strongly in his second start, a six-furlong maiden special weight race on November 7th. Rated just off the pace by jockey Rajiv Maragh, he took the lead just past the sixteenth pole and was hand urged to 1 ¼ length victory. He stopped the clock in a brilliant 1:09 2/5. If he repeats that effort tomorrow, he should win with ease.
The other horse that is expected to run well is Gangstersontherun. Like Leave of Absence, he lost his first start, finishing second, but turned in a brilliant performance second time out. Sent off as the favorite in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Parx Racing, he broke quickly and was sent straight to the lead. He never looked back en route to a nine length victory in :57 flat.
Cane Garden Bay, 8-1 on the morning line, is a colt that I will be watching. I picked him to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) on November 27th, but he ran a disappointing fifth that day. If the pace is rapid tomorrow, it could set up his late run very well.
Be sure to come back next week for my analysis of the Sham Stakes (gr. III), Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II), California Derby, and other great races. It’s the first really big weekend for three-year-olds of 2011 and it’s going to be an exciting two days!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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