This post was supposed to be up earlier today--my apologies for the delay in posting! -Keelerman
The biggest Triple Crown prep race of the year so far is scheduled to be run tomorrow. The $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes, a grade III one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park, has drawn an impressive field of nine promising sophomores. Although the race did lose the expected favorite when it was announced that Boys at Tosconova would not run, there is still plenty of talent in the field and one or more will without a doubt make it to the Kentucky Derby. That's why the Holy Bull is this week's feature race.
FEATURE RACE ---- HOLY BULL STAKES (gr. III)
Gulfstream Park, One Mile on dirt.
Here are the entries. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Gourmet Dinner 3-1
2 Major Gain 8-1
3 Printing Press 12-1
4 Black N Beauty 6-1
5 Ribo Bobo 15-1
6 Leave of Absence 10-1
7 Mucho Macho Man 5-2
8 Sweet Ducky 8-1
9 Dialed In 6-1
Now let me give you a sampling of what these horses have done in the past.
* Gourmet Dinner rallied at odds of 20-1 to upset the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III).
* Major Gain won the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III).
* Mucho Macho Man has twice run second behind To Honor and Serve, in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II).
* Sweet Ducky proved victorious in a pair of stakes race at Monmouth Park last fall.
* Ribo Bobo won the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder.
As if that isn't enough, impressive maiden and allowance winners Dialed In and Black N Beauty have also been entered. What a field!
This race also holds special meaning to me, for it was the first race that I handicapped on this blog over a year ago.
Anyway, the favorite here is Mucho Macho Man. As I mentioned above, the son of Macho Uno finished second in both the Nashua and the Remsen. Although he has never won a stakes race, he has been improving with every race and his workouts have been brilliant. He has recorded three consecutive five furlong breezes in less than a minute at Gulfstream Park. I expect a sharp performance from this very large colt. Trained by Katherine Ritvo, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Eibar Coa.
The second choice is Gourmet Dinner, a fine, stakes-proven colt who pulled off a stunning upset in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. He won his first three starts, all at Calder, before losing the In Reality Stakes to a 46-1 shot in Reprized Halo. That set him up for the Delta Jackpot, which he won with a sharp rally from sixth. A cross-country trip to Hollywood Park yielded a fourth-place finish, but that was actually pretty good considering that it was his first start over a synthetic track. Tomorrow's race will mark his 2011 debut. Trained by Steven Standbridge, the son of Trippi will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Sebastian Madrid.
Major Gain, a son of More Than Ready, could run well at a price. He has only won a single race during his four-start career, but it was a big one. After finishing second in a maiden special weight to future stakes winner Caleb's Posse, Major Gain turned the tables in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III), rallying strongly in the stretch to defeat Rough Sailing and Caleb's Posse, among others.
Favored in the grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity, he failed to rally whatsoever, finishing slightly more than ten lengths behind victorious J B's Thunder in fifth.
His final start of 2010 resulted in a better performance. Sent off as the second choice in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), he battled through the stretch with Santiva and Astrology, finishing third while beaten just a half-length. It was a game performance and I greatly anticipate watching him tomorrow. He is trained by Wayne Catalano and will be ridden by Javier Castellano. He will carry 120 pounds.
Black N Beauty and Dialed In, two lightly-raced colts, will be scrutinized closely tomorrow as they take on their stakes-winning counterparts. The latter has only made one start, but it was impressive. The son of Mineshaft rallied like a rocket in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, coming from 11 1/2 lengths back at the five-sixteenths pole to win by a half-length. Trained by Nick Zito, if he produces a similar rally tomorrow it should carry him to victory. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Black N Beauty also brings promising credentials into the Holy Bull. Although his first start yielded an unimpressive fourth-place finish, his second start got him noticed. Sent off as the third choice in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Belmont Park, he rallied gamely through the stretch to finish second to the highly-regarded Brethren, beaten just a half-length. The final time was a spectacular 1:08 4/5.
He finally left the maiden ranks in his third start, rallying from just off the pace to score by almost three lengths in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs. That set him up for an allowance race on January 7th at Gulfstream Park. The third choice, he broke slowly but was sent straight to the lead where he led all the way to the wire, proving best by 2 1/2 lengths over Printing Press. Trained by Dale Romans, the son of Devil His Due was purchased for just $2,500 as a yearling. Tomorrow, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. He will likely set the pace.
Sweet Ducky, a son of Pulpit, has had a very good career thus far. He raced five times last year and won three races. In his first start, he won a five furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth Park by five lengths. A less-than-ideal trip in the 5-1/2 furlong Tyro Stakes saw him finish a well-beaten fourth. However, he reaffirmed his status as a stakes-caliber colt by decisively defeating Curlinello in both the Garden State Stakes and the Seton Hall University Stakes. He then took a step up in class.
Sent off as the second choice in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, he stayed close to a fast pace before weakening to finish fourth, about ten lengths behind the winner. He has not raced since then. However, he has been firing off some excellent workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Trained by Kelly Breen, he will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Bravo.
Leave of Absence, Printing Press, and Ribo Bobo complete the field. Leave of Absence has recorded a win, a second, and a third from three starts. The son of Harlan’s Holiday broke his maiden second time out going six furlongs at Aqueduct, stopping the clock in 1:09 2/5 under a hand ride. The colt then finished a fast-closing second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 8th. He seems like a colt that would benefit from stretching out to a longer distance, which he will be doing here. Trained by Richard Violette Jr., he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.
Printing Press, as I briefly mentioned above, finished second to Black N Beauty in an allowance race. Prior to that effort, he had won a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park; finished a dismal seventh in the grade III Sapling Stakes; and twice ran third in minor stakes races. He would need to show some serious improvement to contend here. On the other hand, the son of Tapit has at times shown a potent late kick and could be coming fast in the end if the pace is quick enough. Trained by Teresa Pompay, he will be ridden by Elvis Trujillo and will carry 116 pounds.
Finally, we come to Ribo Bobo, the longest shot in the field. The stakes-winning son of Louis Quatorze has made seven starts, with his biggest win coming in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder Race Course. He also ran second in the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes to Manicero and second in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) to Astrology. However, his most recent start was far from impressive. In the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Calder, he ran a distant sixth behind Manicero. If he runs his best race, he could contend here. Trained by Manuel Azpurua, he will be ridden by Edgar Prado and will carry 120 pounds.
It’s without a doubt an amazing field of runners, but I know who I’m going to pick.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Dialed In
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Leave of Absence
5 Major Gain
6 Black N Beauty
7 Printing Press
8 Sweet Ducky
9 Ribo Bobo
As I said before, Mucho Macho Man has been turning in some incredible workouts and just keeps getting better. A versatile colt, I expect him to get a perfect trip and win with authority. Dialed In is a very nice colt, but may be better over a less speed-favoring track and at two-turns.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Two races prior to the Holy Bull, there is the grade II Forward Gal Stakes, a seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies. Like the Holy Bull, it has drawn a spectacular field of runners.
The morning line favorite in Dancinginherdreams, who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden by five lengths on October 10th going six furlongs at Keeneland. This earned her the status as the even-money favorite in the one-mile Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs, which she won by slightly more than five lengths. She seems to be a potential superstar; a filly who has an extremely bright future.
However, there are a couple of other potential superstars lined up to face her. R Heat Lightning is one of them. Winner of the grade I Spinaway Stakes, she finished a courageous second to Awesome Feather in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last time out. This will be her 2011 debut.
Another really nice filly in this race is Devilish Lady. She has won six of her ten starts, including her last four. As if that isn’t enough, she has won her last four starts by a combined 27 ½ lengths. As if that wasn’t enough, three of those four races were stakes races! She has shown a sharp turn of foot and the ability to simply crush her rivals with Rachel Alexandra-like pounces. I can’t wait to see how she does.
Another notable race is the fifth at Gulfstream on Saturday, a seven-furlong allowance race for three-year-old colts. The morning line favorite is Sovereign Default, who has won his only race. Way back on July 15th, he defeated the very nice colt Stay Thirsty in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. A setback apparently occurred after that, for he has not started since then.
Crossbow is a colt who could take advantage of Sovereign Default’s likely rustiness. He broke his maiden going six furlongs at Aqueduct on January 2nd by two lengths. He has shown great speed in his two starts and may prove impossible to catch here.
In the fifth race at Gulfstream on Sunday, a one-mile maiden special weight race, the colt I am watching is Sinorice. He has lost all of his four starts so far but has never yet finished worse than third. In his most recent start, on January 8th going one-mile at Gulfstream, he rallied to finish a strong third despite being bumped hard at the start. With a clearer trip, he should run well tomorrow.
Then there is the fifth race at Fair Grounds on Sunday, an allowance optional claiming event at one-mile and seventy yards. It has drawn five horses, led by the 3-5 favorite Machen. The son of Distorted Humor broke his maiden going six furlongs at Fair Grounds, winning by 5 ½ lengths in 1:10 2/5. I can’t see him losing tomorrow.
Finally, there is the seventh race at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race, the 9-5 morning line favorite is Commander, who finished a close third behind Alternation and Elite Alex in an allowance optional claiming race just two weeks ago.
On a side note, Sunshine Millions day is today! An exciting set of six races are to be run this afternoon at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. I will be posting the results as the races are run later this afternoon. Two of my favorite horses, the eight-year-olds Cost of Freedom and Presious Passion, will be running.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Black N Beauty. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Black N Beauty. Show all posts
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Thursday, January 27, 2011
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- January 26th, 2011
1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott Breezed a half-mile in :51 flat on January 24th at Payson Park. It will be close, but I do believe that he will be able to make the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His first workout since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile should come any day now. Still wondering how far he has progressed since the Breeders’ Cup.
3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Worked six furlongs in 1:10 2/5 handily at Hollywood Park yesterday. I’m worried that his pedigree won’t carry him a mile and a quarter, but I shall wait until he runs on dirt before judging his stamina.
4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Breezed an easy half-mile in :49 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center on the 20th. I still can’t get over the way that he held off both Astrology and Major Gain while racing between them in the stretch of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. It was brilliant.
5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His workouts have been steadily improving, although his most recent breeze, five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 at Palm Meadows, shows that he is not yet ready for a race. I expect to see him run again in early February.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
I am a bit confused. This colt has been breezing once every seven or eight days since December. On January 23rd, he breezed five furlongs in :59 flat at Gulfstream Park. Then he breezed a half-mile this morning in :49 flat at. . . Parx Racing? I simply cannot figure out what is going on.
7. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Got right back on the work tab, breezing a half-mile in :50 2/5 at Santa Anita Park just nine days after his brilliant Sham victory. It’s nice to see Steve Amsussen with a Santa Anita Derby contender.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Turned in a very sharp five-furlong drill on January 24th at Santa Anita, getting the distance in :59 2/5. It is apparent that he will be ready for the Robert B. Lewis in February.
9. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
Worked a brilliant five furlongs this morning, blazing the distance in a sharp :58 4/5.
10. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
I am nearly as confused over this colt as I am over Mucho Macho Man. He has not recorded a workout since January 13th. I can’t see how this is going to get him ready for the Holy Bull in just four days.
Note: After writing this, it was announced that Boys at Tosconova will miss the Holy Bull Stakes. http://www.drf.com/news/boys-tosconova-miss-holy-bull
11. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
The Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds in February has been mentioned as this colt’s next start. He will likely be favored there, considering that in his last race he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
12. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
The Las Virgenes Stakes is now less than two weeks away. Accordingly, this fine filly breezed seven furlongs in a brilliant 1:23 2/5 at Hollywood Park on January 24th. That workout is part of the reason why she has moved up to the 12th spot on this list.
13. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Everything I said about Uncle Mo goes for Stay Thirsty too. Although he wasn’t nearly as good as his stable mate last year, Stay Thirsty is a colt who should improve with distance.
14. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
Still hasn’t recorded a workout since his Hollywood Prevue score. I’m still wondering whether or not he can carry his speed, but I will admit that his pedigree says that he should be able to.
15. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I really like this colt’s pedigree. It is a pedigree which should carry this colt all distances.
16. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
This colt was off my radar—that is, until January 21st, when he destroyed a fine field of horses in an allowance optional claiming race which included Cool Blue Red Hot and Beamer. His ten-length victory did come over a sloppy track, so we still don't know how well he can run on dirt, but he looks like a legitimate Triple Crown Colt.
17. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
Scheduled to run in the Holy Bull Stakes on Sunday. He worked five furlongs in :58 2/5 on January 20th.
18. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Was entered in an allowance optional claiming race on January 21st, but scratched due to a sloppy track. He will instead run in the Holy Bull Stakes on Sunday.
19. Black N Beauty - Trained by Dale Romans
Scheduled to run in the Holy Bull against Mucho Macho Man, Gourmet Dinner, and Dialed In. He will likely set the pace. Time will tell if he can win against such a quality field, but if he does he will certainly be moving up my list.
20. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
There are two major questions remaining with this colt. He has shown that he is classy. He has shown he is game. But he still has to show that he can run successfully going a mile and a quarter on dirt.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Top Notables:
Alternation - The Southwest Stakes could be his next start.
Awesome Patriot - Perhaps the Robert B. Lewis is next.
Beamer - Finished third behind Soldat and Cool Blue Red Hot in an allowance optional claiming race.
Bert B Don - The Fountain of Youth would be a major step up in class, but it seems like a good place for his next start.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Finished a distant second to Soldat in an allowance optional claiming race.
Crossbow - Can he carry he speed?
Decisive Moment - The Risen Star seems like a logical next start.
Elite Alex - He'd be 21st on my list if I included more the 20.
Justin Phillip - Extremely disappointing in the LeComte Stakes.
Kathmanblu - Strong victory in the Sweetest Chant Stakes shows that she is back and ready to advance toward the Kentucky Oaks.
Major Gain - Not sure where this colt will turn up next.
Monzon - The Whirlaway Stakes seems like the most logical goal.
Mountain Town - Just wondering where he will show up next.
Positive Response - El Camino Real Derby is next.
R Heat Lightning - The Forward Gal Stakes should be next.
Sway Away - Where will he start next?
The Factor - How far can he run?
Travelin Man - Impressive maiden winner.
Wine Police - Where will he start next?
Secondary Notables:
Anthony’s Cross - Disappointing in the Sham Stakes.
Bandbox - Still wondering where his next start will be.
Buffum - Has not worked out since the Remsen. Is there something wrong with him?
Commander - Finished third behind Alternation and Elite Alex in an allowance race.
Grant Jack - Very disappointing in the Smarty Jones Stakes.
Manicero - Victory in Pasco Stakes was nice, but he showed serious stamina limitations.
Read the Contract - Disappointing in the Pasco Stakes.
Riveting Reason - Does not seem to be Triple Crown caliber.
Sweet Ducky - The Holy Bull may be his next start.
Uncle Sam - Disappointing in the Sham Stakes.
Zayda - Very disappointing in the California Derby.
-Keelerman
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His first workout since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile should come any day now. Still wondering how far he has progressed since the Breeders’ Cup.
3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Worked six furlongs in 1:10 2/5 handily at Hollywood Park yesterday. I’m worried that his pedigree won’t carry him a mile and a quarter, but I shall wait until he runs on dirt before judging his stamina.
4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
Breezed an easy half-mile in :49 3/5 at Palm Meadows Training Center on the 20th. I still can’t get over the way that he held off both Astrology and Major Gain while racing between them in the stretch of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. It was brilliant.
5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His workouts have been steadily improving, although his most recent breeze, five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 at Palm Meadows, shows that he is not yet ready for a race. I expect to see him run again in early February.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
I am a bit confused. This colt has been breezing once every seven or eight days since December. On January 23rd, he breezed five furlongs in :59 flat at Gulfstream Park. Then he breezed a half-mile this morning in :49 flat at. . . Parx Racing? I simply cannot figure out what is going on.
7. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Got right back on the work tab, breezing a half-mile in :50 2/5 at Santa Anita Park just nine days after his brilliant Sham victory. It’s nice to see Steve Amsussen with a Santa Anita Derby contender.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Turned in a very sharp five-furlong drill on January 24th at Santa Anita, getting the distance in :59 2/5. It is apparent that he will be ready for the Robert B. Lewis in February.
9. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
Worked a brilliant five furlongs this morning, blazing the distance in a sharp :58 4/5.
10. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
I am nearly as confused over this colt as I am over Mucho Macho Man. He has not recorded a workout since January 13th. I can’t see how this is going to get him ready for the Holy Bull in just four days.
Note: After writing this, it was announced that Boys at Tosconova will miss the Holy Bull Stakes. http://www.drf.com/news/boys-tosconova-miss-holy-bull
11. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
The Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds in February has been mentioned as this colt’s next start. He will likely be favored there, considering that in his last race he finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
12. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
The Las Virgenes Stakes is now less than two weeks away. Accordingly, this fine filly breezed seven furlongs in a brilliant 1:23 2/5 at Hollywood Park on January 24th. That workout is part of the reason why she has moved up to the 12th spot on this list.
13. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Everything I said about Uncle Mo goes for Stay Thirsty too. Although he wasn’t nearly as good as his stable mate last year, Stay Thirsty is a colt who should improve with distance.
14. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
Still hasn’t recorded a workout since his Hollywood Prevue score. I’m still wondering whether or not he can carry his speed, but I will admit that his pedigree says that he should be able to.
15. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I really like this colt’s pedigree. It is a pedigree which should carry this colt all distances.
16. Soldat - Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
This colt was off my radar—that is, until January 21st, when he destroyed a fine field of horses in an allowance optional claiming race which included Cool Blue Red Hot and Beamer. His ten-length victory did come over a sloppy track, so we still don't know how well he can run on dirt, but he looks like a legitimate Triple Crown Colt.
17. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
Scheduled to run in the Holy Bull Stakes on Sunday. He worked five furlongs in :58 2/5 on January 20th.
18. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Was entered in an allowance optional claiming race on January 21st, but scratched due to a sloppy track. He will instead run in the Holy Bull Stakes on Sunday.
19. Black N Beauty - Trained by Dale Romans
Scheduled to run in the Holy Bull against Mucho Macho Man, Gourmet Dinner, and Dialed In. He will likely set the pace. Time will tell if he can win against such a quality field, but if he does he will certainly be moving up my list.
20. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
There are two major questions remaining with this colt. He has shown that he is classy. He has shown he is game. But he still has to show that he can run successfully going a mile and a quarter on dirt.
OTHER NOTABLE HORSES
Top Notables:
Alternation - The Southwest Stakes could be his next start.
Awesome Patriot - Perhaps the Robert B. Lewis is next.
Beamer - Finished third behind Soldat and Cool Blue Red Hot in an allowance optional claiming race.
Bert B Don - The Fountain of Youth would be a major step up in class, but it seems like a good place for his next start.
Cool Blue Red Hot - Finished a distant second to Soldat in an allowance optional claiming race.
Crossbow - Can he carry he speed?
Decisive Moment - The Risen Star seems like a logical next start.
Elite Alex - He'd be 21st on my list if I included more the 20.
Justin Phillip - Extremely disappointing in the LeComte Stakes.
Kathmanblu - Strong victory in the Sweetest Chant Stakes shows that she is back and ready to advance toward the Kentucky Oaks.
Major Gain - Not sure where this colt will turn up next.
Monzon - The Whirlaway Stakes seems like the most logical goal.
Mountain Town - Just wondering where he will show up next.
Positive Response - El Camino Real Derby is next.
R Heat Lightning - The Forward Gal Stakes should be next.
Sway Away - Where will he start next?
The Factor - How far can he run?
Travelin Man - Impressive maiden winner.
Wine Police - Where will he start next?
Secondary Notables:
Anthony’s Cross - Disappointing in the Sham Stakes.
Bandbox - Still wondering where his next start will be.
Buffum - Has not worked out since the Remsen. Is there something wrong with him?
Commander - Finished third behind Alternation and Elite Alex in an allowance race.
Grant Jack - Very disappointing in the Smarty Jones Stakes.
Manicero - Victory in Pasco Stakes was nice, but he showed serious stamina limitations.
Read the Contract - Disappointing in the Pasco Stakes.
Riveting Reason - Does not seem to be Triple Crown caliber.
Sweet Ducky - The Holy Bull may be his next start.
Uncle Sam - Disappointing in the Sham Stakes.
Zayda - Very disappointing in the California Derby.
-Keelerman
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 11th, 2011 ---- Race Recaps
The Kentucky Derby is almost here! . . . Okay, that's a stretch. It's only January. I'll have to wait until February before I can say that it is almost here. :-)
Getting serious, there were several fascinating races run last weekend, with the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes being most important due to its graded status. However, the race that may end up having the most influence on the Triple Crown was an allowance race last Friday at Gulfstream Park. But before I get to it, I must recap the feature race from last week, the aforementioned Santa Ysabel.
FEATURE RACE RECAP ---- The Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III)
The field for this graded stakes race was short to begin with, as only five fillies had entered. It became even shorter when two of them scratched, leaving only three runners in the race.
The heavy favorite, at 1-20, was May Day Rose. She was coming off of a good fourth behind Turbulent Descent in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes and was making a drop in class. Although she did not win like a 1-20 shot should, she still coasted home in a fairly easy performance.
Scarlet Starlet, the longshot at nearly 25-1, broke fastest but May Day Rose was quickly sent to the lead by Rafael Bejarano. Scarlet Starlet was content to sit back in second, a length in front of Bluegrass Chatter.
They continued in this order for much of the remainder of the race. Through fractions of :23 2/5, :47 2/5, and 1:11 2/5 the only thing that changed was the distance between the three horses. With five-sixteenths of a mile to run, May Day Rose held a half-length advantage over Scarlet Starlet. Bluegrass Chatter was another 1 1/2 lengths behind her.
May Day Rose then accelerated away from Scarlet Starlet and drew off to a 2 1/2 length lead at the eighth pole. She appeared to be on her way to an easy victory, but Bluegrass Chatter was beginning to rally. Although the latter closed fairly well, she never threatened May Day Rose, who hung on for a 1 1/4 length victory. Scarlet Starlet finished third, beaten just a neck for second and a 1 1/4 lengths for everything.
So the results were. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Scarlet Starlet
. . . and here were my picks.
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty (scratched)
4 Zazu (scratched)
5 Scarlet Starlet
Therefore, I managed to pick the exact order of finish. Of course, just about everybody else did too, but still. . .
OTHER RACE RECAPS
As I mentioned above, there was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Friday that may yield a serious Triple Crown contender or two.
The race was one-mile in distance over the main track. A field of nine was entered, with Shadow Warrior the mild favorite at 2.10-1. El Grayling was also well liked at 2.70-1 and Black N Beauty was respected at 2.90-1.
Fastest out of the gate was El Grayling, but he wanted no part in the lead, taking back to seventh in the early going. It ended up being Black N Beauty who set the pace despite breaking eighth. He was followed by Dr. Tom G and Hammock Beach, the fifth and sixth choices respectively. Printing Press, at 4.70-1, was biding his time in fourth while Shadow Warrior raced sixth.
The pace was quite honest, with Black N Beauty playing a game of catch-me-if-you-can while carving fractions of :24 1/5 and :46 4/5. Under Kent Desormeaux, he continued to lead the way by a length until the quarter pole. Having run three quarters of a mile in 1:12 flat, it would have been no surprise to see him fade. After all, Printing Press, Shadow Warrior, and El Grayling were all lined up behind him making their bids and it would be very difficult to stem them off.
However, it is obvious that Black N Beauty is a nice horse, for not only did he stem off all of their runs but actually drew away throughout the stretch. He hit the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front of Printing Press, who finished a decisive 2 3/4 lengths clear of Shadow Warrior. A neck behind the latter was El Grayling, who just missed third by a neck. No other runner was within six lengths of the leading quartet.
Understandably, Black N Beauty did finish the race rather slowly, completing his last quarter mile in :25.46 and his last half-mile in :50.57. However, his :46 4/5 opening half mile was very good indeed. The performance likely earned him a spot in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next month, where we will likely learn just how talented he is.
The final race that must be mentioned is the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which was run on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. A six-furlong main track event, it drew eight runners with the favorite being Gangsterontherun. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were also well bet. However, none of them would win.
Cane Garden Bay broke fastest, but it was Gangsterontherun who raced away to take the early lead. He rattled off a testing :21 3/5 opening quarter mile while clearing the field by over a length. His closest pursuer was Determinato, a 14-1 shot. Cane Garden Bay and Leave of Absence were racing in fifth and sixth respectively.
Gangsteronthrun continued to lead the way through a half-mile in :44 3/5. However, he was then tackled by Determinato, who wrestled the lead away from the formed passing the eighth pole. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were rallying, but they both appeared to be soundly beaten.
Inside the eighth pole Gangsterontherun gave way, leaving Determinato on the lead. Leave of Absence charged relentlessly in the stretch, but fell 1 1/4 lengths short. Leave of Absence managed to rally for third, just nosing out Gangsterontherun for that spot. War For Gus, a 19-1 shot, finished fifth after staying fairly close to the pace.
Next Saturday the first really important Triple Crown prep race will be run, as Tapizar and Anthony's Cross take on each other in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). There will be several other strong prep races as well, including the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes for fillies and the Pasco Stakes for colts at Tampa Bay Downs. It's going to be the best weekend of 2011 so far!
-Keelerman
Getting serious, there were several fascinating races run last weekend, with the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes being most important due to its graded status. However, the race that may end up having the most influence on the Triple Crown was an allowance race last Friday at Gulfstream Park. But before I get to it, I must recap the feature race from last week, the aforementioned Santa Ysabel.
FEATURE RACE RECAP ---- The Santa Ysabel Stakes (gr. III)
The field for this graded stakes race was short to begin with, as only five fillies had entered. It became even shorter when two of them scratched, leaving only three runners in the race.
The heavy favorite, at 1-20, was May Day Rose. She was coming off of a good fourth behind Turbulent Descent in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes and was making a drop in class. Although she did not win like a 1-20 shot should, she still coasted home in a fairly easy performance.
Scarlet Starlet, the longshot at nearly 25-1, broke fastest but May Day Rose was quickly sent to the lead by Rafael Bejarano. Scarlet Starlet was content to sit back in second, a length in front of Bluegrass Chatter.
They continued in this order for much of the remainder of the race. Through fractions of :23 2/5, :47 2/5, and 1:11 2/5 the only thing that changed was the distance between the three horses. With five-sixteenths of a mile to run, May Day Rose held a half-length advantage over Scarlet Starlet. Bluegrass Chatter was another 1 1/2 lengths behind her.
May Day Rose then accelerated away from Scarlet Starlet and drew off to a 2 1/2 length lead at the eighth pole. She appeared to be on her way to an easy victory, but Bluegrass Chatter was beginning to rally. Although the latter closed fairly well, she never threatened May Day Rose, who hung on for a 1 1/4 length victory. Scarlet Starlet finished third, beaten just a neck for second and a 1 1/4 lengths for everything.
So the results were. . .
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Scarlet Starlet
. . . and here were my picks.
1 May Day Rose
2 Bluegrass Chatter
3 Plum Pretty (scratched)
4 Zazu (scratched)
5 Scarlet Starlet
Therefore, I managed to pick the exact order of finish. Of course, just about everybody else did too, but still. . .
OTHER RACE RECAPS
As I mentioned above, there was an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on Friday that may yield a serious Triple Crown contender or two.
The race was one-mile in distance over the main track. A field of nine was entered, with Shadow Warrior the mild favorite at 2.10-1. El Grayling was also well liked at 2.70-1 and Black N Beauty was respected at 2.90-1.
Fastest out of the gate was El Grayling, but he wanted no part in the lead, taking back to seventh in the early going. It ended up being Black N Beauty who set the pace despite breaking eighth. He was followed by Dr. Tom G and Hammock Beach, the fifth and sixth choices respectively. Printing Press, at 4.70-1, was biding his time in fourth while Shadow Warrior raced sixth.
The pace was quite honest, with Black N Beauty playing a game of catch-me-if-you-can while carving fractions of :24 1/5 and :46 4/5. Under Kent Desormeaux, he continued to lead the way by a length until the quarter pole. Having run three quarters of a mile in 1:12 flat, it would have been no surprise to see him fade. After all, Printing Press, Shadow Warrior, and El Grayling were all lined up behind him making their bids and it would be very difficult to stem them off.
However, it is obvious that Black N Beauty is a nice horse, for not only did he stem off all of their runs but actually drew away throughout the stretch. He hit the wire 2 1/2 lengths in front of Printing Press, who finished a decisive 2 3/4 lengths clear of Shadow Warrior. A neck behind the latter was El Grayling, who just missed third by a neck. No other runner was within six lengths of the leading quartet.
Understandably, Black N Beauty did finish the race rather slowly, completing his last quarter mile in :25.46 and his last half-mile in :50.57. However, his :46 4/5 opening half mile was very good indeed. The performance likely earned him a spot in the Fountain of Youth Stakes next month, where we will likely learn just how talented he is.
The final race that must be mentioned is the Spectacular Bid Stakes, which was run on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. A six-furlong main track event, it drew eight runners with the favorite being Gangsterontherun. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were also well bet. However, none of them would win.
Cane Garden Bay broke fastest, but it was Gangsterontherun who raced away to take the early lead. He rattled off a testing :21 3/5 opening quarter mile while clearing the field by over a length. His closest pursuer was Determinato, a 14-1 shot. Cane Garden Bay and Leave of Absence were racing in fifth and sixth respectively.
Gangsteronthrun continued to lead the way through a half-mile in :44 3/5. However, he was then tackled by Determinato, who wrestled the lead away from the formed passing the eighth pole. Leave of Absence and Cane Garden Bay were rallying, but they both appeared to be soundly beaten.
Inside the eighth pole Gangsterontherun gave way, leaving Determinato on the lead. Leave of Absence charged relentlessly in the stretch, but fell 1 1/4 lengths short. Leave of Absence managed to rally for third, just nosing out Gangsterontherun for that spot. War For Gus, a 19-1 shot, finished fifth after staying fairly close to the pace.
Next Saturday the first really important Triple Crown prep race will be run, as Tapizar and Anthony's Cross take on each other in the Sham Stakes (gr. III). There will be several other strong prep races as well, including the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes for fillies and the Pasco Stakes for colts at Tampa Bay Downs. It's going to be the best weekend of 2011 so far!
-Keelerman
KEELERMAN'S TOP TWENTY ---- January 10th, 2011
1. To Honor and Serve - Trained by William Mott
As of right now, the possibility exists that he could make the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February. If he is to start there, then I would not be surprised to see him return to the work tab shortly.
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His 2011 debut will not be until at least mid-February, perhaps March. Until then, it will be difficult to gauge how well he has progressed since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Breezed a half-mile in :48 2/5 at Hollywood Park on January 7th. The current plan is to run him in three prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby, with the first one being in February.
4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
The Fountain of Youth Stakes is the current goal for the Kentucky Jockey Club winner. As is the case with To Honor and Serve, he has not recorded a workout since November.
5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Worked a half-mile in :49 2/5 this morning. He was flattered a few days ago by Black N Beauty, impressive winner of an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. Black N Beauty had previously finished second to Brethren in a maiden special weight race.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Worked a brilliant five furlongs in :59 flat on January 8th in preparation for the Holy Bull Stakes. It's going to be interesting to see if he can stay with Boys at Tosconova.
7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. I'm still not convinced that his pedigree can carry him a mile and a quarter, but how well he runs in the Holy Bull Stakes later this month should tell us more.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Although he ran poorly in his only start on dirt, I am still convinced that this colt is something special. He seems to be able to run all day. The Belmont Stakes should be within his reach.
9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Recorded his first work since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by breezing three furlongs in :37 2/5 at Gulfstream Park. He is obviously several weeks away from his next start, but I suppose that the Fountain of Youth is a possibility.
10. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Uncle Mo, I'm left wondering how far along he is. How much has he matured over the last few months? Until he returns to the work tab, and even more importantly the races, it is impossible to say how he is doing.
11. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
The Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 12th or the San Vincente Stakes on February 20th seem like logical places for this colt's 2011 debut, considering that he hasn't worked out since winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes in November.
12. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Worked out for the first time since her Hollywood Starlet victory by breezing a half-mile in :48 4/5 on January 6th at Hollywood Park. I do believe that this filly is something unusual; something special. The Triple Crown races might not be out of her reach.
13. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I’m still puzzling over this fine colt. Although his pedigree should carry him a mile and a quarter or further, I didn’t like the way that he was unable to catch Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes despite every opportunity.
14. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
On December 31st, this promising colt worked a half-mile at Santa Anita ---- in :45 3/5. This colt seems to be on the rise; a colt who is getting better and better. I greatly anticipate his next start.
15. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
I am dropping this colt down several spots after giving his pedigree some serious thought. I'm simply not convinced that he can go a mile and a quarter. Time will tell, but for now I can't keep him in the top ten.
16. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown
I must admit that I am fascinated by her pedigree. She is bred to run a considerable distance, and I do believe that she could be capable of staying with the colts at classic distances.
17. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed a half-mile in :47 4/5 at Palm Meadows in preparation for his next start, which is currently unknown. I would not be surprised to see him in the Holy Bull, which would make that race a truly remarkable prep for the Kentucky Derby if all of the other expected starters run.
18. Black N Beauty - Trained by Dale Romans
This son of Devil His Due set all the pace in a one-mile main track allowance race at Gulfstream Park on the seventh and never looked back en route to a 2 1/2 length victory. He seems to possess a lot of natural speed and likely stamped his ticket to the Fountain of Youth.
19. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
Recorded a sharp four-furlong work on January 5th, going :48 4/5 at Santa Anita Park. Although this colt seems to be a sprinter, he was running strong at the end of the CashCall Futurity, and with the right trip he might be able to run farther than I think he can.
20. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Worked an exceptional six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 on January 6th at Santa Anita in preperation fort the Sham Stakes on January 15th. This is a colt whose potential is unlimited; the epitome of an untapped Derby contender. I await the Sham Stakes eagerly.
Other Notable Horses:
Anthony’s Cross
Awesome Patriot
Bandbox
Buffum
Cool Blue Red Hot
Crossbow
Decisive Moment
Elite Alex
Grant Jack
Justin Phillip
Kathmanblu
Major Gain
Manicaro
Monzon
Mountain Town
Positive Response
Read the Contract
R Heat Lightning
Riveting Reason
Sway Away -
Sweet Ducky
The Factor
Travelin Man
Uncle Sam
Wine Police
Zayda
-Keelerman
As of right now, the possibility exists that he could make the Fountain of Youth Stakes in February. If he is to start there, then I would not be surprised to see him return to the work tab shortly.
2. Uncle Mo - Trained by Todd Pletcher
His 2011 debut will not be until at least mid-February, perhaps March. Until then, it will be difficult to gauge how well he has progressed since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
3. Comma to the Top - Trained by Peter Miller
Breezed a half-mile in :48 2/5 at Hollywood Park on January 7th. The current plan is to run him in three prep races prior to the Kentucky Derby, with the first one being in February.
4. Santiva - Trained by Eddie Kennealy
The Fountain of Youth Stakes is the current goal for the Kentucky Jockey Club winner. As is the case with To Honor and Serve, he has not recorded a workout since November.
5. Brethren - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Worked a half-mile in :49 2/5 this morning. He was flattered a few days ago by Black N Beauty, impressive winner of an allowance race at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. Black N Beauty had previously finished second to Brethren in a maiden special weight race.
6. Mucho Macho Man - Trained by Katherine Ritvo
Worked a brilliant five furlongs in :59 flat on January 8th in preparation for the Holy Bull Stakes. It's going to be interesting to see if he can stay with Boys at Tosconova.
7. Boys at Tosconova - Trained by Rick Dutrow
Breezed a sharp five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. I'm still not convinced that his pedigree can carry him a mile and a quarter, but how well he runs in the Holy Bull Stakes later this month should tell us more.
8. Jaycito - Trained by Bob Baffert
Although he ran poorly in his only start on dirt, I am still convinced that this colt is something special. He seems to be able to run all day. The Belmont Stakes should be within his reach.
9. Rogue Romance - Trained by Kenneth McPeek
Recorded his first work since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by breezing three furlongs in :37 2/5 at Gulfstream Park. He is obviously several weeks away from his next start, but I suppose that the Fountain of Youth is a possibility.
10. Stay Thirsty - Trained by Todd Pletcher
Like Uncle Mo, I'm left wondering how far along he is. How much has he matured over the last few months? Until he returns to the work tab, and even more importantly the races, it is impossible to say how he is doing.
11. Premier Pegasus - Trained by Myung Cho
The Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February 12th or the San Vincente Stakes on February 20th seem like logical places for this colt's 2011 debut, considering that he hasn't worked out since winning the Hollywood Prevue Stakes in November.
12. Turbulent Descent - Trained by Mike Puype
Worked out for the first time since her Hollywood Starlet victory by breezing a half-mile in :48 4/5 on January 6th at Hollywood Park. I do believe that this filly is something unusual; something special. The Triple Crown races might not be out of her reach.
13. Astrology - Trained by Steven Asmussen
I’m still puzzling over this fine colt. Although his pedigree should carry him a mile and a quarter or further, I didn’t like the way that he was unable to catch Santiva in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes despite every opportunity.
14. Clubhouse Ride - Trained by Craig Lewis
On December 31st, this promising colt worked a half-mile at Santa Anita ---- in :45 3/5. This colt seems to be on the rise; a colt who is getting better and better. I greatly anticipate his next start.
15. Gourmet Dinner - Trained by Steven Standridge
I am dropping this colt down several spots after giving his pedigree some serious thought. I'm simply not convinced that he can go a mile and a quarter. Time will tell, but for now I can't keep him in the top ten.
16. Awesome Feather - Trained by Chad Brown
I must admit that I am fascinated by her pedigree. She is bred to run a considerable distance, and I do believe that she could be capable of staying with the colts at classic distances.
17. Dialed In - Trained by Nick Zito
Breezed a half-mile in :47 4/5 at Palm Meadows in preparation for his next start, which is currently unknown. I would not be surprised to see him in the Holy Bull, which would make that race a truly remarkable prep for the Kentucky Derby if all of the other expected starters run.
18. Black N Beauty - Trained by Dale Romans
This son of Devil His Due set all the pace in a one-mile main track allowance race at Gulfstream Park on the seventh and never looked back en route to a 2 1/2 length victory. He seems to possess a lot of natural speed and likely stamped his ticket to the Fountain of Youth.
19. J P's Gusto - Trained by David Hofmans
Recorded a sharp four-furlong work on January 5th, going :48 4/5 at Santa Anita Park. Although this colt seems to be a sprinter, he was running strong at the end of the CashCall Futurity, and with the right trip he might be able to run farther than I think he can.
20. Tapizar - Trained by Steve Asmussen
Worked an exceptional six furlongs in 1:12 2/5 on January 6th at Santa Anita in preperation fort the Sham Stakes on January 15th. This is a colt whose potential is unlimited; the epitome of an untapped Derby contender. I await the Sham Stakes eagerly.
Other Notable Horses:
Anthony’s Cross
Awesome Patriot
Bandbox
Buffum
Cool Blue Red Hot
Crossbow
Decisive Moment
Elite Alex
Grant Jack
Justin Phillip
Kathmanblu
Major Gain
Manicaro
Monzon
Mountain Town
Positive Response
Read the Contract
R Heat Lightning
Riveting Reason
Sway Away -
Sweet Ducky
The Factor
Travelin Man
Uncle Sam
Wine Police
Zayda
-Keelerman
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)