Breeders' Cup Workout Report -- October 28th, 2012

With just four days remaining until the Breeders' Cup begins, final workouts were being turned in left and right across the country, with the majority coming at Santa Anita and Belmont Park. But it's possible that no horse was more impressive than Breeders' Cup Classic favorite Game On Dude, who looked spectacular breezing seven furlongs in 1:25 flat.

At Belmont Park . . .

With Hurricane Sandy approaching, the morning's Breeders' Cup candidates were out early in the morning to try and wrap up their training the impending rain struck. The busy morning included . . .

Awesome Feather - The unbeaten Ladies' Classic contender worked a moderate half-mile in :48.50, which was really nothing more than a maintenance breeze following her sharp six-furlong work one week ago.
Balance the Books - Chad Brown-trainee breezed in company with stablemate and fellow Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf contender Noble Tune, with both colts stopping the timer in 1:13.99 for six furlongs on turf. Both seem to be training well, so determining which one will beat the other in the Breeders' Cup looms as a nearly impossible task.
Corporate Jungle - Breezing in company with Hyper, this Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint contender went five-eighths in 1:01.20 over the turf course, which was actually the fastest such breeze of the morning by close to four-fifths of a second.
Flat Out - Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) winner kept all of his shoes on today -- he lost one during last week's breeze -- and clocked a half-mile in :48.01 seconds.
Jersey Town - Coming off of a spectacular :58.62 breeze on October 23rd, it came as no surprise that Jersey Town's final piece of pre-Breeders' Cup work was a much more moderate five furlongs in 1:04.08.
Point of Entry - Likely Breeders' Cup Turf favorite breezed in company with grade II stakes winner Boisterous and could not have been more impressive, going a half-mile in a bullet :47.64.
Ron the Greek - Two-time grade I winner blazed a half-mile over the training track in :47.83 seconds, the fastest of eighty-eight such morning works. It was a beautiful way to conclude his pre-Breeders' Cup training, and the five-year-old colt looms as one of the horses to beat in the Classic.
Royal Delta - Last year's Eclipse champion three-year-old filly went a half-mile in :48.96, which was all she really needed to do following her bullet five-eighths work last week. Pre-entered in both the Classic and the Ladies' Classic, no decision has been made yet regarding which race she will run in.
To Honor and Serve - Could not have gone much better, as his time of :47.72 for a half-mile was the second-fastest of fifty-two such morning works. Coming off of a dismal performance in the Kelso Handicap (gr. II), it's nice to see that he's training so well.
Watsdachances - Miss Grillo Stakes (gr. III) winner went a half-mile in company with grade I winner and fellow Breeders' Cup contender Zagora, getting the better of her older rival by a narrow margin at the finish -- her time of :49.76 seconds was one-hundredth of a second faster than Zagora's :49.77. Trained by Chad Brown, she is clearly coming up to the race in good form and looms as one of the fillies to beat.
Zagora - As outlined above, she went a half-mile in company with Watsdachances and was outworked by a narrow margin. Nevertheless, she seems to have maintained her form well since finishing second in the Flower Bowl Stakes (gr. I) and appears to be sitting on another good effort.

At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .

A trio of Breeders' Cup contenders were out for morning training, the most impressive being Breeders' Cup Mile contender Mr. Commons. Trained by John Shirreffs, the two-time grade II winner traversed six furlongs in a quick 1:12.60, his third consecutive bullet work since finishing third in the Arroyo Seco Mile Stakes (gr. II). Fifth in last year's Breeders Cup Mile, he appears ready to improve on that performance this time around.

Another Mile contender wrapping up his serious training was Jeranimo, winner of the Shoemaker Mile Stakes (gr. I) two starts back. Unraced since a third-place finish in the Del Mar Mile Handicap (gr. III) in late August, the Michael Pender-trainee breezed a half-mile in the sharp time of :47.20, the second-fastest of sixty-three such morning works.

Rounding out the trio was Marathon contender Balladry, most recently ninth and last in the Awesome Again Stakes (gr. I). His time of 1:03 flat for five furlongs was nothing more than a maintenance breeze following his strong one-mile work last week.

At Churchill Downs . . .

The only Breeders' Cup candidate on the work tab was Fort Larned, winner of the Whitney Handicap (gr. I) and a contender for the Breeders' Cup Classic. The Ian Wilkes-trainee breezed five furlongs in company with Indiana Derby (gr. II) winner Neck 'n Neck, getting the distance in a bullet 1:00.40. Overall, I would say that he is training better now than he was prior to his third-place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I), meaning that he could be ready for a rebound in the Classic.

At Santa Anita Park . . .

It was another super-busy morning, with another nineteen contenders wrapping up their serious training. They were, in alphabetical order . . .

Almudena - Had the shortest work of the morning, blowing out three-eighths of a mile in a good :35.20 seconds. The South American-based mare is one of the more intriguing contenders in the Breeders' Cup Marathon, although it's quite difficult to say how she'll fare against the tough competition.
Bridgetown - Went a half-mile on the turf in company with stablemate Doubles Partner; both horses recording identical times of :46.80. For Bridgetown, it was a nice final prep for the Turf Sprint, where he will have to try and stretch his speed over 6-1/2 blazing furlongs.
California Flag - 2009 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner is now eight years old, but you wouldn't know it based on his recent training. The Brian Koriner-trained gelding breezed a half-mile on the turf course in a spectacular :46.20, this following five furlongs in :59.60 last week. He's facing a tough task, trying to win the Turf Sprint off of no starts since April, but he has run well off layoffs in the past, and he truly relishes the downhill turf course over which the Turf Sprint will be run.
Capital Account - The first of Bob Baffert's three Sprint contenders worked a half-mile in company with stablemate and fellow Sprint contender Coil, getting the distance in an easy :48.60. Coming off of a :46.80 work one week ago, today's breezed was nothing more than a maintenance work for the Pat O'Brien Stakes (gr. II) winner.
Class Included - Went a half-mile in :47 seconds flat and really couldn't have gone any better. The eight-time stakes-winning filly had been pre-entered in both the Ladies' Classic and the Filly and Mare Sprint, but following this impressive work, her connections announced that the Ladies' Classic would be her goal.
Coil - As describe above, he worked in company with Capital Account, recording the slightly faster time of 48.20 seconds. Coming off of an upset victory in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes (gr. I), he stands to earn himself an Eclipse award as the nation's finest male sprinter if he can add the Breeders' Cup Sprint to his record.
Contested - Baffert's two-time grade I winning filly traversed six furlongs in an exceptional 1:11.40, the fastest work of the morning at that distance by three-fifths of a second. Being unraced since late August, it's nice to see how sharply she is training, as she will need to be 100% in order to defeat the spectacular Groupie Doll in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Doubles Partner - As outlined above, he breezed in company with stablemate Bridgetown and clocked a half-mile on turf in :46.80. He is facing the unenviable task of trying to beat Wise Dan, Excelebration, and Obviously in the Breeders' Cup Mile, but has shown enough talent in the past to suggest that he can be in the mix with the right kind of trip.
Fast Bullet - Baffert's third and final Breeders' Cup Sprint candidate clocked a half-mile in :48.20, but according to DRF.com, was very impressive doing it. The four-year-old colt has only raced twice, and has not run since last November, but the way he has trained over the last couple of weeks suggest that he could be a serious sleeper in the Sprint.
Fed Biz - Dirt Mile candidate went a half-mile in an easy :48 flat, but the clockers described the work as "breezing" -- which, in California, means that he was under practically no urging at all.
Game On Dude - Breeders' Cup Classic favorite could not have turned in a better work. Breezing in company with grade II stakes winner Blueskiesnrainbows, Game On Dude easily got the better of his workmate, clocking seven-eighths in a spectacular 1:25 while going quite easily. And, according to DRF.com, he galloped out a mile in 1:39-and-change.
Gantry - Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II) winner breezed a very easy half-mile in :51.40. His training pattern has been a bit unusual -- this was only his third breeze since finishing second in the Temperence Hill Stakes on September 8th -- but perhaps this unorthodox approach is simply Gantry's style.
Juniper Pass - Marathon contender worked five-eighths in the good time of 1:00.60, a rather strong final breeze indeed. Seeing that he is proven at the fourteen-furlong distance of the Marathon, I find him a very intriguing contender in a wide-open race.
Monument - California Cup Juvenile Stakes winner went six furlongs in the good time of 1:13.20, one of the faster works of the morning. John Sadler-trainee is pointing toward a start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, where his experience over the track may give him a bit of an edge over East coast-based contenders like Shanghai Bobby and Fortify.
My Miss Aurelia - Rolled through an easy half-mile in :48 flat, which was nothing more than a maintenance work following her impressive six-furlong breeze last week. Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) winner is facing a tough task in the Ladies' Classic, having to try and defeat the likes of Royal Delta, Awesome Feather, and Questing, but she seems to have taken her training to a whole new level during the last couple of weeks, and I think she's ready to turn in a really big performance.
Power Broker - Baffert's main contender for the Juvenile breezed in company with stablemate and fellow Juvenile entrant Title Contender, with both colts stopping the clock for five furlongs in the bullet time of :59 flat. This was a truly exceptional breeze, and seeing that it was his third straight spectacular work since winning the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), one has to think that this colt is sitting on another huge performance in the Breeders' Cup.
Slim Shadey - Breeders' Cup Turf contender breezed on the dirt, going five-eighths in 1:01.20. His connections have stated that they would like to send him to the lead in the Turf, but the presence of speedy front-runner Little Mike could make that more difficult.
Tale of a Champion - Kristin Mulhall-trainee galloped through a half-mile in :47 flat, and fine piece of work that should set him up well for the Turf Sprint.
Title Contender - As described above, he went in company with Power Broker and could not have been more impressive while clocking five-eighths in :59 flat. He's only got two starts under his belt, and he's never faced winners before, but he looms an intriguing contender in the Juvenile based off of his recent training.

-Keelerman

Breeders' Cup Workout Report -- October 22nd, 2012

Although Monday wasn't quite as busy as Saturday and Sunday in terms of Breeders' Cup contenders turning in workouts, the morning nevertheless saw numerous major contenders hit the racetrack for morning training, including a formidable trio of Classic contenders at Belmont Park.

At Belmont Park . . .

The morning was dominated by prominent names from the barns of Bill Mott and Chad Brown, who between them sent out eight major Breeders' Cup contenders. Mott's quartet was comprised of Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (gr. I) favorite Royal Delta, who went five-eighths in a bullet :59.16; Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out, who went that same distance in 1:00.10; Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) winner Ron the Greek, who went five-eighths in company to stop the clock in 1:00.10; and Woodward Stakes (gr. I) winner To Honor and Serve, who breezed the distance in 1:00.53. All are candidates for the Breeders' Cup Classic, although Royal Delta is much more likely to run in the Ladies Classic.

From Brown's barn came Balance the Books and Noble Tune, two of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. Breezing a half-mile together over the yielding turf course, they both recorded times of :49.11, the fastest clocking of the morning.

Brown also sent out Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf contender Watsdachances, who went a half-mile over the turf in :50.29, and Zagora, who went five furlongs in 1:04.50 over the sodden course in preparation for the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic.

Also breezing on the turf was three-time grade I winner Point of Entry, the likely favorite for the Breeders' Cup Turf. Trained by Shug McGaughey, the four-year-old colt wasn't really asked for urging while breezing five furlongs in 1:02.72 over the turf course and seems to be maintaining his form quite well.

Other prominent horses that breezed included Archwarrior (Juvenile, 4f in :47.67), Beau Choice (Turf Sprint, 4f in :50.55), and Darwin (Juvenile Sprint, 4f in :49.07).

At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .

The highlight of the morning was Breeders' Cup Mile candidate Mr. Commons, coming off of a close third-place effort in the Arroyo Seco Mile (gr. II). Trained by John Shirreffs, the colt went six furlongs in a bullet 1:13 flat, the fastest of the morning by a full second. He seems to be coming into the Mile in excellent form, and has the potential to improve upon his fifth-place finish in that race last year.

At Churchill Downs . . .

The biggest name of the morning was Fort Larned, winner of the Whitney Invitational (gr. I) and third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I). Trained by Ian Wilkes, the Breeders' Cup Classic candidate went five furlongs in 1:01 flat, the fourth fastest breeze of the morning at that distance.

Wilkes also sent out Indiana Derby (gr. II) winner Neck 'n Neck, who candidate for either the Classic or the Dirt Mile. The son of Flower Alley went five-eighths in 1:02, which was really nothing more than a maintenance work.

From the barn of Tom Amoss came Delaunay, winner of the Temperance Hill Stakes in impressive fashion last time out. The five-year-old gelding is pointing toward a potential start in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, but while his :49.40 half-mile breeze was fairly good, he may need to turn in something a bit quicker next week in  order to sharpen his speed sufficiently to take on Amazombie, Coil, and Capital Account.

Another Sprint candidate to breeze was Hamazing Destiny, runner-up in the 2010 edition of the race and fifth last year. Coming off of a decent second in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, the D. Wayne Lukas-trainee breezed a bullet half-mile in :47.80 and seems to be coming up to the Breeders' Cup in good form.

At Monmouth Park . . .

While the work tab was fairly busy, there appeared to be only one Breeders' Cup candidate out for morning training, that being Royal Currier. The talented seven-time stakes winner breezed a bullet five-eighths in :59.80, which should have him in good shape the the Breeders' Cup Sprint should his connections choose to run him there.

At Santa Anita Park . . .

Another busy morning at Santa Anita saw at least a dozen contenders turn in workouts, including six from the powerful barn of Bob Baffert. The most impressive was probably Contested, winner of the Test Stakes (gr. I) and Acorn Stakes (gr. I) this year. Pointing toward a start in the Filly and Mare Sprint, the three-year-old filly breezed five-eighths in :59 flat, the second-fastest of 53 such morning works. Also impressive were FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) winner Power Broker and maiden special weight winner Title Contender, who breezed six furlongs in company with each other, getting the distance in 1:12.80. Both are pointing toward the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Fed Biz, most recently third in the Indiana Derby (gr. II), breezed a half-mile in :48 flat. He is being aimed at the Dirt Mile, where he will be ridden by Joe Talamo.

Baffert also sent out Zuma Beach Stakes runner-up Den's Legacy and FrontRunner fourth-place finisher Carving to breeze a half-mile in :47.60 and five-furlongs in 1:01.80, respectively. Both could wind up in Breeders' Cup races -- the Juvenile Turf for Den's Legacy and the Juvenile Sprint for Carving -- but nothing has been confirmed yet.

Trainer Steve Asmussen also had a big morning, sending out a quartet of contenders. Perhaps the most impressive was Tapizar, most recently sixth in the Kelso Handicap. A possibility for the Dirt Mile, he went six furlongs in 1:12.80, which was the third fastest work of the morning. Unbridled's Note, winner of the Eddie D Stakes an one of the favorites for the Turf Sprint, looked sharp breezing five furlongs in 1:00.20. Fellow Turf Sprint candidate Great Mills went the distance in 1:02.80, a fairly unremarkable work, but a good prep nevertheless. Justin Phillip, runner-up in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) two starts back, breezed five-eighths in 1:00.20.

Other workers included L.A. Woman Stakes winner Rumor (Filly and Mare Sprint, 4f in :47.80) and the group II-placed colt Cogito (Turf, 3f in :36.80).

-Keelerman

Breeders' Cup Classic Contender Profile: TO HONOR AND SERVE

Owner: Live Oak Plantation

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm, Larry Byer, and Rancho San Miguel

Most Recent Jockey: John Velazquez

RACE RECORD

Age 4

4th Kelso Handicap (gr. II)

1st Woodward Stakes (gr. I)

4th Suburban Handicap (gr. II)

3rd Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I)

1st Westchester Handicap (gr. III)

Age 3

1st Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I)

7th Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I)

1st Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II)

1st Allowance Optional Claiming

6th Amsterdam Stakes (gr. III)

3rd Florida Derby (gr. I)

3rd Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

1st Remsen Stakes (gr. II)

1st Nashua Stakes (gr. II)

1st Maiden Special Weight

2nd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		A.P. Indy
	Bernardini
		Cara Rafaela
To Honor and Serve
		Deputy Minister
	Pilfer
		Misty Hour

To read what I have written about To Honor and Serve in the past, click here.

Jersey Town upsets Kelso Handicap

Lightly regarded Jersey Town, sent off at 8-1, took the lead from Shackleford entering the homestretch and drew off strongly to win the $400,000 Kelso Handicap (gr. II) this afternoon at Belmont Park by about five lengths.

Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, Jersey Town received a perfect trip in the Kelso, sitting a couple of lengths behind Shackleford as that colt set quick fractions of :22.54 and :45.02 seconds over a track labeled "good." Trickmeister was on the outside racing in second, followed by Tapizar and Jersey Town. Golddigger's Boy and To Honor and Serve were the early trailers.

Rounding the turn, Shackleford continued to lead the way, but Jersey Town was moving strongly and split horses turning for home to seize command of the lead. Shackleford gamely tried to stay with him for about a sixteenth of a mile, but Jersey Town simply had more left in the tank, gradually drawing away throughout the homestretch to win convincingly in the good time of 1:35.24 seconds.

Shackleford held on to finish second over Trickmeister, while To Honor and Serve never fired and finished fourth.

The winner, a six-year-old son of Speightstown, is trained by Barclay Tagg and owned by Charles Fipke.

-Keelerman

SUPER STATURDAY STAKES ANALYSIS

With just five weeks remaining until the 29th running of the Breeders' Cup, the racing action is really starting to get exciting. On Saturday, a massive ten grade I races are scheduled to be run at Belmont Park and Santa Anita, with dozens upon dozens of potential Breeders' Cup contenders getting in their final prep races. Let's start handicapping!

Beldame Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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This appears to be pretty much a match race between Royal Delta and It's Tricky, with the other five entrants vying for the minor awards. Royal Delta has flashier credentials, having won last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (gr. I) and Alabama Stakes (gr. I) -- defeating It's Tricky on both occasions -- but the latter filly may be able to turn the tables today.

I have three reasons for thinking It's Tricky shall win: A -- She is undefeated in one-turn races like the Beldame. B -- She has proven herself over sloppy tracks, like the one expected tomorrow, and C -- She ran incredibly well in defeat last time out, overcoming a horrific stumble at the start of the Personal Ensign Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga to finish third, just a neck behind runner-up Royal Delta.

Now, don't get me wrong, Royal Delta deserves plenty of respect, and can most certainly win this race. In fact, I expect her to rebound from her so-so Personal Ensign form. However, the fact that this race is only one turn does concern me, and she was soundly beaten in this race last year over a sloppy track. She may be a better bet five weeks from now in the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, where the combination of the expected faster track and return to two-turns should help her chances immensely.

Kelso Handicap (gr. II)

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To Honor and Serve is the logical favorite, as he is coming off of a gritty victory in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga and should handle the one-mile distance of this race just fine. But he's got some strong competition up against him, including Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I) winner Shackleford. Now, Shackleford's summer campaign did not go very well. He performed dismally over a wet track in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) and missed an expected start in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) after coming down with a cough. He's over his issues now, and returns to the site of his Met Mile triumph, but is he sharp enough to defeat To Honor and Serve over a track condition that he really doesn't care for?

I think that Jersey Town is an intriguing contender. Soundness issues have plagued throughout his career, but when he is right, he can run with the best. And I think that his strong effort in the Forego Stakes (gr. I) earlier this month signals he is ready for a big performance tomorrow. In the Forego, he made a premature run along the rail to grab the lead before understandably tiring in the final furlong. With that race under his belt, he should be much sharper, and while he may not be up to handling To Honor and Serve, don't be surprised if he outruns his 12-1 morning line odds.

Vosburgh Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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This is undoubtedly one of the most wide-open races on the card, with every one of the ten entrants having a decent shot at cracking the trifecta. Justin Phillip is the favorite off of a runner-up effort in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I), in which he was just edged out by fellow Vosburgh starter Poseidon's Warrior.

Sean Avery is intriguing off of a victory in an overnight stakes earlier this month, in which he defeated Zero Rate Policy and Royal Currier. He has drawn a good post position for his running style, and I envision him biding his time just off the pace before rallying into the lead at the three-sixteenths pole and holding off the closers for a convincing victory.

Caixa Eletronica can turn in a powerful rally if the early pace is sufficient enough, and it wouldn't be

Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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This is another race with top-to-bottom talent in which every contender deserves at least a look. Dream Peace is the favorite off of a runner-up finish to Winter Memories in the nine-furlong Diana Stakes (gr. I), and the Irish-bred filly looks to improve on that performance tomorrow while making her first start for trainer Chad Brown. And given her record at ten furlongs, there is no doubt that she can handle the added distance of today's event.

Chad Brown's other entrant, Zagora, also looks like a solid contender. True, she was third behind Dream Peace in the Diana, but she subsequently rebounded to break the Saratoga track record in the Ballston Spa Handicap (gr. II) last month, and is clearly coming into this race in good form. However, she does seem to prefer firm turf, and she may find the ground tomorrow a bit soft for her taste. And ten furlongs might be a bit beyond her best distance as well.

One mare that should like the soft turf is I'm A Dreamer, who on the Beverly D. Stakes (gr. I) last time out over yielding turf. She should also enjoy the distance, making her a legitimate contender in this spot.

Nahrain, runner-up in last year's Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf (gr. I), would be a major contender if in peak form, but she has not finished better than third in three starts this year and appears to be off-form.

There are plenty of other contenders as well, but I think Dream Peace looks like a solid favorite.

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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Point of Entry is 4-5 on the morning line for a reason -- he is riding a four-raced winning streak that includes two straight grade I wins. He has terrific stamina and tremendous turn-of-foot. He has enough tactical speed to be involved early if the pace is slow. In my opinion, he is the most likely winner on the card.

Little Mike is an admirable colt with exceptional credentials, and he deserves respect based off of his front-running victory in the Arlington Million (gr. I) last month over a yielding turf course. He has enough speed to take this field a long way on the front end, but he'll be running two furlongs farther than he ever has before, and over that route of ground, I have to side with Point of Entry for the win.

Also intriguing is Finnegans Wake, a three-year-old colt from the barn of Dale Romans. Coming off of a runner-up effort in the Secretariat Stakes (gr. I) over a yielding turf course, he has the pedigree to be in the mix and should be coming fast late.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Invitational Stakes (gr. I)

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The 94th running of this prestigious race has drawn a very deep field of ten, with Ron the Greek the mild favorite on the morning line at 5-2. Winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) and Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) this season, he enters to Gold Cup off of a sharp runner-up effort to Fort Larned in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I), a race in which the Bill Mott-trainee was forced to circle the field on the far outside before falling just 1 1/4 lengths short. Running a furlong farther today, all reasoning says that Ron the Greek should easily catch his Whitney conqueror today.

However, Fort Larned has credentials of his own, and catching him over this ten-furlong distance may not be as easy as it seems. Take another look at his Whitney victory -- he was three-wide around both turns while chasing a fast pace, yet drew off to a powerful victory nonetheless. And remember, he was only be hand-urged in the stretch.

In addition, let us recall that Belmont Park is a rather speed-favoring track, and that its speed-favoring nature becomes only more pronounced over wet tracks. If the track comes up sloppy tomorrow, it is very possible that Fort Larned could go straight to the lead, set a moderate pace, and accelerate away in the homestretch to win the race in easy fashion -- much like Haynesfield did two years ago.

So having made my case for Fort Larned, I might as well pick him to win. Of course, if I don't detect a strong speed bias during the early races on the Belmont card, I may switch to the Ron the Greek camp.

Other contenders worth mentioning include Flat Out and Hymn Book. The first-mentioned colt has not won a race since taking the 2011 Jockey Club Gold Cup in the slop. But there are plenty of reasons to like him this year too -- not only has he proven himself thoroughly over the Belmont main track, and in the slop as well, he enters off of a strong third-place effort in the Whitney, in which he was beaten just a head by Ron the Greek.

As for Hymn Book, he is 4-for-5 on wet tracks and 0-for-6 on fast tracks, making it clear that he would relish a sloppy track tomorrow. In addition, he has never finished worse than second in four starts here at Belmont,

There are only two concerns -- one, the pace may be a bit slow for his late run, and two, he may be just a half-notch below the top contenders in this race. But there's no denying that he can be a top-class horse on his best day, and his bullet half-mile breeze on September 23rd signals that he is ready for a big effort.

Atigun and Fast Falcon are a pair of three-year-olds that ran well in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) despite encountering traffic issues. Both seem suited to the ten-furlong distance of this race, but are unproven against older horses. On the other hand, they have run speed figures that would make them at least mildly competitive in this spot, and should either of them improve just a bit, they could surprise everyone by cracking the trifecta.

Chandelier Stakes (gr. I)

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Executiveprivilege is the heavy favorite here for a reason. Trained by Bob Baffert, she is undefeated in four starts, and that includes a trio of stakes victories. Most recently, she won the prestigious Del Mar Debutante (gr. I) in late-running fashion, and she appears to be the kind of filly that will relish two-turns and dirt -- which are the conditions she will find today.

Perhaps the filly most likely to pull off an upset is Beholder, who broke her maiden impressively second time out for trainer Richard Mandella before finishing just a nose behind Executiveprivilege in the Del Mar Debutante. She possesses a great deal of tactical speed, and could potentially steal the race on the front end if the Santa Anita main track is it's usual speed-favoring self.

Salamera is also intriguing off of her runner-up effort in Saratoga's Adirondack Stakes (gr. II), but is now shipping across the country and stretching out two furlongs in distance.

For the record, I'll side with Executiveprivilege, assuming that the track is playing more-or-less fair on Saturday. But if I feel there is a strong enough speed bias, I may switch to Beholder.

FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I)

(Click here for entries and post positions)

With Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) winner Rolling Fog out with a minor injury, it appears as though Futurity runner-up Know More is the horse to beat. The son of Lion Heart was able to accomplish in his first start what few horses ever do -- that is, win a graded stakes race without any previous racing experience. His subsequent runner-up effort in the Futurity was by no means a disappointment, as he overcame a great deal of traffic to lose by just 1 1/4 lengths.

Trainer Bob Baffert has entered a trio of colts in Carving, Den's Legacy, and Power Broker. The first-mentioned colt has the best credentials, as he is undefeated in two starts, including a victory in the C.B. Afflerbaugh Stakes on the dirt at Fairplex. But Den's Legacy warrants respect off of a sharp victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar, and being a son of Medaglia d'Oro, one has to think he could stretch out around two turns. And while Power Broker is still a maiden after three starts, he was beaten just a neck in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf Stakes last time out going a mile at Del Mar, despite setting a very quick pace. All three warrant consideration, but it's difficult to say for certain which one is best.

Dry Summer, winner of the Oak Tree Juvenile Stakes, switches from the grass to the dirt for this race, and judging by his pedigree, he should love the change.

Capo Bastone and Gabriel Charles, who finished fourth and sixth in the Del Mar Futurity despite tough trips, are both eligible to improve with cleaner trips, but two turns and dirt are unknowns for them.

It's a tough race to handicap, unlike last year, when Creative Cause and Drill were the clear-cit favorites. I almost convinced myself to go with Gabriel Charles for the win, but Know More has struck me as a horse of very high quality, and I feel good about his chances of success.

Zenyatta Stakes (gr. I)

(Click here for entries and post positions)

This deep field includes six grade I winners, and determining who will emerge victorious will not be an easy task. However, in the end, I think that it will come down to Include Me Out and Amani.

Include Me Out has compiled a stellar record this year, including victories in the Santa Margarita Stakes (gr. I) and Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. I), in addition to placing second in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I). Plus, her favorite track seems to be Santa Anita, and she's very good at this 1 1/16th miles distance.

However, it's possible that Amani is capable of taking her down. A nearly undefeated champion in her native Chile, Amani has recorded a pair of starts here in the United States, finishing a close third to Include Me Out in the Clement L. Hirsch before coming home sixth in the Pacific Classic (gr. I) against males. Returning to dirt, upon which all of her success came in Chile, the possibility exists that Amani could rally from off-the-pace to catch Include Me Out in the final sixteenth of a mile.

But as I have discussed above, how the track is playing could greatly affect the results of the races, and if the track is speed-favoring, I probably wouldn't go with Amani. But as long as the track is more-or-less fair, I'll likely select the Chilean champion.

Other contenders include Love and Pride, winner of the Personal Ensign Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga last time out; Switch, a multiple grade I winner trying to regain past form; Star Billing, close runner-up in the Clement L. Hirsch; and Love Theway Youare, upset winner of the Vanity Handicap two starts back.

Rodeo Drive Stakes (gr. I)

(Click here for entries and post positions)

Thirteen fillies and mares are entered in this wide-open ten-furlong turf race, and you can make a case for just about all of them.

The favorite will probably be Marketing Mix, who was beaten a nose by I'm A Dreamer in last month's Beverly D Stakes (gr. I) over a yielding turf course. Returning to firm turf, which she may slightly prefer, one has to think that she'll be tough to beat.

However, there are many other strong contenders in the race, and I like City to City. She has been finishing strongly at distances much shorter than ten furlongs, and I feel that will finish off her late run in powerful fashion this afternoon.

Let's Go Cheyenne is also interesting off of a front-running score in the CTT and Thoroughbred Owners of California Handicap, but she's facing much tougher today and may not get such an easy lead this time around.

Awesome Again Stakes (gr. I)

(Click here for entries and post positions)

The main question here is what kind of trip Game On Dude will receive. He's almost undoubtedly the fastest horse in the race, and possibly the country, and this is his favorite racetrack. But the front-running colt has been known to break slowly in the past, and has drawn the rail today. Suppose he breaks slowly and gets trapped off of the pace?

Well, perhaps that will happen, but even if he does, I think he's good enough to overcome it. And perhaps he'll break perfectly!

Nonios, runner up in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) two starts back, is an intriguing contender at a price. Richard's Kid deserves respect as well, but he hasn't run on dirt in several years and may be better on synthetics. Rail Trip is in a similar boat -- he has the talent, but is probably best over Hollywood Park's Cushion Track.

-Keelerman

Kelso Handicap Entries: To Honor and Serve preps for BC

Whitney Invitational Stakes (gr. I) winner To Honor and Serve will prep for a start in the Breeders' Cup on Saturday when he heads to post as the likely favorite for the $400,000 Kelso Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont Park.

But while To Honor and Serve may have the classiest credentials in the nine-horse field, there are a number of other legitimate contenders that could possibly upset the one-mile race. The most obvious is Shackleford,  winner of the 2011 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) and 2012 Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I). He is coming of of a dull effort in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) at Saratoga last month, but the Dale Romans-trainee has been training well and should run a much better race while returning to the sight of his Met Mile triumph.

Two-time graded stakes winner Tapizar and 2010 Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) winner Jersey Town are other major contenders.

Post Positions:

PP	Horse	Weight	Jockey	Trainer
1	Isn't He Perfect	114	Michael J. Luzzi	Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
2	Golddigger's Boy	115	Jose Lezcano	Ramon Preciado
3	Jersey Town	116	Javier Castellano	Barclay Tagg
4	Tapizar	117	Corey Nakatani	Steve Asmussen
5	To Honor and Serve	121	John Velazquez	Bill Mott
6	Shackleford	121	Ramon Dominguez	Dale Romans
7	Gallant Fields	114	Joel Rosario	Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
8	Pacific Ocean	116	Wilmer Garcia	Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
9	Trickmeister	116	Cornelio Velasquez	Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.

-Keelerman

TO HONOR AND SERVE WINS THE WOODWARD STAKES!

To Honor and Serve picked up the second grade I win of his career this afternoon when he held off a late bid from Mucho Macho Man to win the prestigious $750,000 Woodward Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga by a neck.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, To Honor and Serve got off to a good start at the beginning of the nine-furlong race and soon settled into the third position, just a length or two behind Rule and Trickmeister, who battled through fractions of :23 3/5 and :47 2/5. Favored Mucho Macho Man was racing in fourth along the rail after getting off to a less-than-stellar start, while Stay Thirsty, Gourmet Dinner, and Cease were the early trailers.

As the field made their way around the final turn, To Honor and Serve effortlessly moved up alongside the front-runners to take over the lead. In the meantime, Mucho Macho Man was desperately searching for racing room, finding it about a furlong from home and bursting into the clear on the far outside. He loomed as the winner a sixteenth of a mile from the finish, but To Honor and Serve dug in gamely and turned back the challeng to win by a neck in 1:48.56 seconds.

Cease rallied well to finish third, while Trickmeister, Stay Thirsty, Rule, and Gourmet Dinner completed the order of finish. The winner is owned by Live Oak Plantation and trained by Bill Mott.

-Keelerman

SARATOGA STAKES ANALYSIS -- September 1st, 2012

The final three days of the 2012 Saratoga meet have finally arrived, and while it is certainly a bittersweet occasion, the quality of the racing over these final few days is truly stunning, with multiple grade I races to be run, as well as the prestigious Hopeful Stakes (gr. II), which -- for reasons somewhat debatable -- is not a grade I this year.

Today's card features a pair of grade I races -- the $750,000 Woodward Stakes (gr. I) and the $500,000 Forego Stakes (gr. I). Both have drawn deep and impressive fields with evenly-matched contenders, and while I personally am looking forward to the Forego perhaps even more than the Woodward, it is the Woodward that has had an almost unimaginable streak of good fortune in producing Eclipse award winners, with three of the last four Horses of the Year having won this prestigious prize. Thus, it is here that we shall begin our analysis of the day's major stakes.

The morning line favorite at 8-5 is Mucho Macho Man, who showed enough talent last year as a three-year-old to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and place third in both the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and the Louisiana Derby (gr. II). But given his massive size and late birth date -- he stands 17.2 hands and is a June foal -- he was given some time off to mature following the Triple Crown, and he responded in terrific fashion. After winning a comeback allowance race by nearly six lengths, Mucho Macho Man proceeded to knock off Ron the Greek and Turbo Compressor -- both subsequent grade I winners -- in the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic, then backed that up with a victory over Tackleberry and Jackson Bend in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II).

Following those efforts, he shipped to Churchill Downs to contest the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. Sent off as the favorite, he loomed a contender around the far turn before weakening in the homestretch to finish third, beaten seven lengths by victorious Successful Dan -- a very, very good horse -- and six lengths by Fort Larned, who, of course, came back to take the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (gr. III) and the Whitney Handicap (gr. I). So although Mucho Macho Man's effort was indeed sub-par, it was certainly not a disgrace to be beaten by such exceptional runners.

And what Mucho Macho Man did in his next start was certainly not a disgrace either -- in fact, it was his next performance that stamped him as a colt of truly exceptional caliber. Sent off at nearly 6-1 in the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont Park, Mucho Macho Man tracked a strong pace set by Trickmeister before drawing off impressively to win the race by a dominating 2 1/2 lengths, and under a hand ride to boot. His final time of 1:46.58 seconds earned him a massive Beyer speed figure of 108.

Even more impressive was the list of horses he beat. Trailing him home in the Suburban were horses like Hymn Book, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I); To Honor and Serve, winner of the Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I); Stay Thirsty, winner of the Travers Stakes (gr. I); and Endorsement, winner of the Sunland Derby (gr. III). So clearly, the Mucho Macho Man of 2012 is vastly superior to the unfinished version we saw in 2011, and anything near a repeat of his Suburban effort could get him a victory in today's race.

His rivals would have to show improvement in order to top him. To Honor and Serve has the credentials, for he is a grade I winner and has recorded triple-digit Beyer speed figures of six occasions. And he was beaten just 3 1/2 lengths in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). But it's hard to overlook the fact that he was beaten a sound 7 1/2 lengths by Mucho Macho Man in the Suburban, and without any obvious excuse. Even if he rebounds to his best form, he may need a slight regression from Mucho Macho Man in order to win this race. His main hope is that Mucho Macho Man, being a large, heavy colt, may not be able to turn in as strong a performance racing around a one-mile oval as he did traversing the spacious 1 1/2 circumference of Belmont Park.

Another colt looking to rebound from an awful Suburban effort is Stay Thirsty, who was beaten 13 1/2 lengths that day while finishing fifth. But unlike To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty may have had a legitimate excuse that day -- the heat. Stay Thirsty has shown in the past that he can't handle extreme temperatures, and the weather conditions on Suburban day were truly oppressive. If one tosses out his Suburban effort, and takes note of the fact that he is 3-for-4 here at Saratoga with victories in the Travers (gr. I) and Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), one sees that Stay Thirsty is entering this race in good fashion and could be sitting on a much-improved effort.

Things get a little less clear beyond the three favorites. Trickmeister has won six of his nine starts, and defeated Stay Thirsty earlier this year in the Vanlandingham Stakes, but could only manage to finish third in the Suburban and fifth in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I) last time out. He does possess a great deal of early speed, and is likely to control the early pace here today, but nine furlongs seems to be just a bit too far for him, especially against horses of this caliber.

In addition, he may find himself challenged for the early lead by Rule, a talented and speedy Todd Pletcher-trainee that finished third in this race last year. While it is true that the colt is coming off of a dismal last-place finish in the Whitney Handicap, that may have been because he was unable to get to the lead -- and whenever he doesn't get to the lead, he tends to falter badly. And since he has drawn the rail today, that pretty much forces him to bid hard for the early advantage, which may seriously affect Trickmeister's chances later this afternoon.

Then there is Cease. The well-bred colt has won just four races in his entire career. He has never won a stakes. And yet, he may be capable of winning this race simply because he is a freak here at Saratoga, where he is a perfect 3-for-3. Also note that all four of his victories were in nine-furlong dirt races, just like this one. Should Rule and Trickmeister set a blazing pace that softens up Mucho Macho Man and To Honor and Serve, Cease could be the one to take advantage of the situation and rally for victory. Don't ignore the fact that his trainer, Albert Stall Jr., is winning at a 32% rate at this Saratoga meet.

The final horse to discuss is Gourmet Dinner, who won the rich Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) as a juvenile in 2010. Since then, he has found the winner's circle only once, taking the Majestic Light Stakes at Monmouth Park two starts back. While he is in arguably the best form of his career, he was beaten soundly in the Philip H. Iselin Stakes (gr. III) last time out, and it's difficult to conceive him improving enough to win a race of this caliber, although rallying for a spot in the superfecta is certainly not out of the question if the pace is hot.

Races like these are typically tough to handicap, and this one is no exception. But since I have to make a pick, I'll side with Mucho Macho Man for the repeat. I certainly can't deny that To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty both appear to be sitting on big efforts, but I think the former may be better around one-turn at this stage of his career, and the latter doesn't seem to be as quick as Mucho Macho Man from a speed figure perspective. I do find Cease to be an intriguing contender, and feel confident that he could crack the exacta, but I'm not sure that even a career-best performance would be enough to defeat Mucho Macho Man if the latter runs back to his Suburban effort.

Moving onward, the Forego Stakes (gr. I) originally drew a field of eight, but the scratch of morning line favorite Shackleford earlier this morning has left a field of seven to contest the seven-furlong sprint. Jackson Bend won this race last year, and is back for a repeat, but was involved in a frightening training accident about two weeks ago that left his status for this race in doubt. Fortunately, he was uninjured and will get a chance to defend his title, but his recent form has not been stellar, and he would need to be at his very best to take down this prize.

Should Jackson Bend fail to bring his best form, Emcee and Pacific Ocean could pull off an upset. The first-mentioned colt has shown a lot of promise in six career starts, and most recently finished a good third in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I) here at Saratoga off of a three-month layoff. He should be much sharper today while returning to his favorite distance, and a win would certainly surprise no one. Pacific Ocean parlayed an easy trip into victory in the James Marvin Stakes (gr. III) here at Saratoga on opening day, easily defeating Jackson Bend, but he will surely face a more difficult task today with fellow front-runner Emcee also in the race.

Jersey Town finished second in this race last year, but he has not won since 2010 and has been dealing with soundness issues for some time. Caixa Eletronica won the True North Handicap (gr. II) three starts back, but finished fifth in the James Marvin and would need a very fast pace to set up his late run. Hamazing Destiny won the Maryland Sprint Handicap (gr. III) three starts back, and most recently closed late to finish fourth in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (gr. I). Last of all, Isn't He Perfect had finished first or second in seven of his eight starts this year, but has been soundly beaten in every one of his graded stakes attempts and may be better with slightly more distance.

I'm going to pick Emcee for the win, as I have always believed this colt to be a very good one, but I have a lot of respect for Hamazing Destiny and feel he could be sitting on a big effort. Jackson Bend merits consideration on his record alone, but it would be one of the greatest feats in the history of the sport if he were to win this race just two weeks after his accident -- I'll be cheering him on, but he's facing a very difficult task.

The last race that warrants discussion is the $250,000 Bernard Baruch Handicap (gr. II) at 1 1/16th miles on the turf. Two scratches have reduced the field to six runners, with Data Link the heavy morning line favorite at 7-5. Winner of the Maker's 46 Mile Stakes (gr. I) earlier this year, Data Link is truly exceptional performer in races like this one, and enters off of a convincing victory in the Monmouth Stakes (gr. II) over multiple grade I winner Get Stormy. The lone concern is that there might not be enough early pace to set up his run today, but he should prove versatile enough to overcome any pace deficiencies and add another major victory to his record.

Other contenders are Dominus, winner of the 2011 Dwyer Stakes (gr. II) who is trying turf for the first time after compiling an excellent record on dirt; Guys Reward, winner of the Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) two starts back; and Prince Will I Am, unraced for nearly fifteen months but a grade I winner in 2010.

My fairly un-creative selection is Data Link, my feeling being that he is simply the best of the field over this distance and surface. But keep an eye on Prince Will I Am. This race is most likely too short for him, but a good effort today would help get him back on track for a race like the Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. III), or even the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I).

-Keelerman

Woodward Stakes Contender Profile: TO HONOR AND SERVE

Owner: Live Oak Plantation
Trainer: Bill Mott
Breeder: Twin Creeks Farm, Larry Byer, and Rancho San Miguel
Jockey: John Velazquez

RACE RECORD

Age 4

4th Suburban Handicap (gr. II)
3rd Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I)
1st Westchester Handicap (gr. III)

Age 3

1st Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I)
7th Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I)
1st Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II)
1st Allowance Optional Claiming
6th Amsterdam Stakes (gr. III)
3rd Florida Derby (gr. I)
3rd Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)

Age 2

1st Remsen Stakes (gr. II)
1st Nashua Stakes (gr. II)
1st Maiden Special Weight
2nd Maiden Special Weight

PEDIGREE

		A.P. Indy
	Bernardini
		Cara Rafaela
To Honor and Serve
		Deputy Minister
	Pilfer
		Misty Hour

To read what I have written about To Honor and Serve in the past, click here.

Woodward Stakes Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $750,000 Woodward Stakes (gr. I), to be run on Saturday at Saratoga. The prestigious nine-furlong race has been won in recent years by such champions as Curlin, Rachel Alexandra, and Havre de Grace, stamping itself as one of the key races in the country for settling Eclipse awards. This year's renewal has drawn a small but talented field of seven, led by grade I winners To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty, as well as Suburban Handicap (gr. II) winner Mucho Macho Man and multiple graded stakes winner Rule.

1 Rule
2 Gourmet Dinner
3 Mucho Macho Man
4 Trickmeister
5 Stay Thirsty
6 To Honor and Serve
7 Cease

-Keelerman

Preliminary Invitees for Whitney Invitational Announced

The preliminary list of invitees for the upcoming $750,000 Whitney Invitational Handicap (gr. I) have been announced, and from the looks of things, the prestigious nine-furlong "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) is going to be one terrific race.

The complete list of fourteen invitees is as follows:

Caixa Eletronica
Endorsement
Flat Out
Fort Larned
Hunters Bay
Hymn Book
Mucho Macho Man
Ron the Greek
Rule
Stay Thirsty
Successful Dan
To Honor and Serve
Wise Dan

Of this group, Stay Thirsty, Wise Dan, Mucho Macho Man, and possibly Caixa Eletronica are expected to skip the race in favor of other races. However, the remaining eleven horses all have the Whitney on their schedules, and barring unforeseen circumstances, all are tentatively pointing toward the race.

The Whitney Invitational is to be run on August 4th at Saratoga. Should any of the original fourteen invitees choose to skip the race, alternate invitees could be entered. Any alternate invitees, as well as weight assignments, will be announced on July 29th.

-Keelerman

MUCHO MACHO MAN WINS THE SUBURBAN HANDICAP!

Mucho Macho Man seized command of the lead turning into the homestretch and held off a late bid from Hymn Book to win the $350,000 Suburban Handicap (gr. II) this afternoon at Belmont Park.

Ridden for the first time by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, Mucho Macho Man got off to an excellent start and quickly settled into the second position early on, just off of the early pace set by Trickmeister. Endorsement, Buffum, and To Honor and Serve were right behind them in the second tier of runners, while Stay Thirsty and Hymn Book were content to trail the field early on.

The early fractions were quite testing, with Trickmeister showing the way through an opening quarter in :23.06 and a half-mile in :45.68. As the field made their way around the turn, Endorsement and Buffum gave way, as did To Honor and Serve about a sixteenth of a mile later. This left Mucho Macho Man and Trickmeister alone on the front end, with Mucho Macho Man moving much the strongest of the pair. With powerful strides, Mucho Macho Man burst clear of the field, running the mile in a brilliant 1:33.82.

Hymn Book rallied strongly on the far outside to finish second, but was unable to seriously challenge the winner, who coasted home a decisive winner while stopping the clock for nine furlongs in 1:46.58.

Trickmeister held on to finish third, while To Honor and Serve rounded out the superfecta.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- July 7th, 2012

Talk about a huge Saturday of racing! Three Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" spots are up for grabs, three grade I races are to be run, and names like Game On Dude, Richard's Kid, To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty, Hymn Book, Mucho Macho Man, Love Theway Youare, Agave Kiss, Musical Romance, All Star Heart, Flat Out, Rule, Chamberlain Bridge, Regally Ready, Trinniberg, Field Commision, Turbo Compressor, Brilliant Speed, Slim Shady, Air Support, and Eldaafer are among the names entered in the vast multitude of graded stakes races being held across the country. Let's start handicapping!

Hollywood Gold Cup Handicap (gr. I)
Ten furlongs on the Hollywood Park Cushion Track

Entries:

PP	Horse	Weight	Jockey	Trainer
1	Love Theway Youare	112	Alonso Quinonez	Myung Kwon Cho
2	Richard's Kid	120	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert
3	Kettle Corn	117	Garrett Gomez	John Sadler
4	Spud Spivens	114	Victor Espinoza	Henry Moreno
5	Anthony's Cross	115	Kerwin John	Eoin Harty
6	Game On Dude	124	Chantal Sutherland	Bob Baffert
7	Thirtyfirststreet	112	Eswan Flores	Doug O'Neill

The heavy morning line favorite at 4-5 is Game On Dude, who finished second in this race last
year. Trained by Bob Baffert, this five-year-old gelding seems to get better with every passing year, and enters this race with a chance to stamp himself as the clear-cut leader of the division. Given how impressively he won the Californian Stakes (gr. II) here at Hollywood last time out -- while making his first start since a trip to Dubai -- I would expect him to be even sharper today, and the quality of his recent workouts seems to support that assumption. He should be difficult, if not nearly impossible, to defeat.

The status of second choice will likely go to Richard's Kid, who is also from the barn of Bob Baffert -- giving Baffert a chance to secure a 1-2 sweep of the Hollywood Gold Cup for the second consecutive year, if such a fact is even imaginable. A couple years back, Richard's Kid was among the best older males in the country, winning back-to-back runnings of the Pacific Classic (gr. I), as well as single editions of the Goodwood Stakes (gr. I), San Antonio Handicap (gr. II), and Cougar II Handicap (gr. II). However, a 1 1/2-year excursion to Dubai failed to secure any victories, and the now seven-year-old veteran was returned to Baffert's barn in California for another run at the summer handicaps. Judging by his 7 1/4-length victory in the Prove It Stakes here at Hollywood last time out, he seems to be back to his best, and should be a force to reckon with here today, and especially further down the road.

Beyond the two favorites, it's difficult to say who will step up and run a good race. Kettle Corn won the Native Diver Handicap (gr. III) here last fall, but was decisively beaten by Game On Dude when finishing second in the Californian. Love Theway Youare, the lone filly in the race, pulled off a surprising upset in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I) last time out, and should appreciate the distance of today's event, but her form prior to the Vanity was not very good, and even a repeat of her Vanity effort probably won't be enough to win this race. Thirtyfirststreet has been disappointing in his last two starts, but three starts back, in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I), he was making what looked like a potentially race-winning move along the fence when he hit the rail and retreated to finish eighth. From the barn of Doug O'Neill, this colt's best efforts could put him in the mix for a large piece of the purse. Spud Spivens won an allowance race in nice fashion last time out, but has never won a stakes race and may be in a bit deep. Anthony's Cross won the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) last year, but went to the sidelines following a fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and has been disappointing in three starts since then.

All told, it's a tough race to decipher aside from the two favorites, and we could end up seeing some intriguing results by the end of the day!

My selections are:

1 Game On Dude
2 Kettle Corn
3 Richard's Kid
4 Thirtyfirststreet

Other Races of Note

At Arlington Park . . .

Race 6: A field of six is scheduled to start in the $100,000 Arlington Sprint Stakes, a 5-1/2 furlong turf sprint that has drawn the last two winners of the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (gr. III), Chamberlain Bridge (2010) and Regally Ready (2011). While they are the stand-out favorites, both have major questions to answer. Regally Ready is winless in three starts this year, those efforts including a pair of dismal defeats in Dubai. And while Chamberlain Bridge can still be a force on his best day, his top efforts have been fewer and farther between as of late. One longshot that could pull an upset if the top two fail is Longhunter, who I feel is in deceivingly good form right now.

At Belmont Park . . .

Race 8: The undefeated Agave Kiss is scheduled to put her perfect 6-for-6 record on the line this afternoon in the six-furlong Victory Ride Stakes (gr. III) for three-year-old fillies, where she is the 2-5 favorite on the morning line. Coming off of an authoritative victory in the Miss Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, in which she earned a large Beyer speed figure of 106, Agave Kiss is definitely the one to beat in this spot, and looks ready to add another victory to her record. Perhaps the only thing that could get her beat is the fact that she drew gate one, and may have to be sent hard for the lead. But in a field of six, it probably won't be much of an issue.

Gypsy Robin, who is riding a three-race winning streak, and Jamaican Smoke, a promising allowance winner, are given the best chance at pulling off an upset, but both would need improved performances to take down Agave Kiss. And if the pace is hot, longshots Sea Island and Emma's Encore could certainly be charging late.

Race 9: It may only be a grade II, but the nine-furlong Suburban Handicap for three-year-olds and upward has certainly drawn a grade I-caliber field, in which six of the eight runners are graded stakes winners, and three of them grade I winners. To Honor and Serve is the morning line favorite off of a third-place finish in the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), in which a less-than-perfect trip surely contributed to his defeat. A versatile colt, he stamped himself as a classy horse right away with victories in the Remsen (gr. II) and Nashua Stakes (gr. II) as a juvenile, then added the Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) and Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) as a three-year-old. This year, prior to his Met Mile run, he swept to an overwhelmingly easy victory in the Westchester Handicap (gr. III) over a good colt in Boys at Tosconova. Nine furlongs could end up being just behind his best range, but he certainly has the talent to make up for any potential stamina limitations that he may or may not have.

Another logical contender is Stay Thirsty, winner of the Travers Stakes (gr. I), Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), and Gotham Stakes (gr. III) last year, in addition to placing in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I). He has only made one start this year, finishing a strong second in the Vanlandingham Stakes despite a tought trip. We know he likes it here at Belmont, and he should only be sharper in his second start of the year. Look for him to sit just off of the early lead and finish up with a strong run.

Mucho Macho Man won three straight races earlier last winter, culminating with a victory in the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II) over a strong field that included next-out grade I winner Jackson Bend, but was less than stellar last time out when finishing third beaten seven lengths in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs. It's difficult to pinpoint exactly why he was beaten so soundly that day -- perhaps it was a combination of things -- but his subsequent sharp workouts, coupled with a rider switch to veteran Mike Smith, could be the combination that leads to an improved performance.

Other contenders in this deep field include Hymn Book, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I) three starts back; Trickmeister, who defeated Stay Thirsty last time out in the Vanlandingham Stakes; Buffum, a lightly raced Goldolphin runner coming off of an eight-length allowance victory; Endorsement, winner of the Texas Mile (gr. III) two starts back; and Caixa Eletronica, a versatile sprinter/router that won the Charles Town Classic (gr. II) earlier this year.

At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .

The Hollywood Gold Cup is not the only graded stakes race on the Saturday card. Fillies and mares on the turf are the stars of the $150,000 Royal Heroine Mile Stakes (gr. II), named for the French mare that won the inaugural running of the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I) here at Hollywood Park. The morning line favorite in this race is All Star Heart, a super-talented mare with an incredible turn of foot. Trained by Ron McAnally, she enters this race off of three straight victories, and has won five of her last six starts over all. Last time out, she showcased her turn of foot to win the Redondo Beach Handicap here at Hollywood by a half length while closing brilliantly into a quickly run final furlong. If she can repeat that effort, and there's no reason to think that she shouldn't, then she should prove extremely tough to beat today. Of the rest, grade I-placed Quiet Oasis figures to have the best chance of pulling off an upset, but she would likely need an improved effort in order to do so. Nereid, Briecat, and Up In Time are other well-respected contenders.

At Calder Race Course . . .

Race 8: The main question in the six-furlong Carry Back Stakes (gr. III) is whether or not the morning line favorite, Trinniberg, will run here or in the Smile Sprint Stakes (gr. II) later on the card. As I am writing this, he hasn't scratched from either, so for the moment, let's assume that he runs in the Smile Sprint. If that were to be the case, than favoritism in this spot would likely go to Fort Loudon, a five-time Calder stakes winner that is 6-for-8 overall at this track. In his last two starts, he has soundly defeated fellow Carry Back contenders Hello Prince and Angelofdistinction, which makes him a logical selection for another victory today. Argentine Tango could potentially give him a run for the money, but he lost to Fort Loudon three times last year, and is coming off of a badly-beaten third in an allowance race last time out.

Race 10: It's hard to make a selection in the $400,000 Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II), given the depth and quality of the field, but the race favorite could end up being Trinniberg should he run here rather than in the above-discussed Carry Back Stakes. Given that he has won three graded sprint stakes this year, he would be a deserving favorite, but a couple of factors could make him beatable in his debut against older horses. For one thing, he seems to be best at seven furlongs, and he could find the increased pace pressure of six furlongs a bit much for him. And he'll be facing older horses for the first time, which is never a super easy task. On talent alone, he can win this race, but there are plenty of other runners capable of taking him down under the right circumstances.

One of those is Gantry, who won a trio of stakes races during the Fair Grounds meet before finishing a game third in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) behind a pair of terrific colts in Shackleford and Amazombie. He needs a strong pace in front of him to set up his stretch kick, but there does seem to be enough speed in here to do just that, so expect to see him finishing strongly in the homestretch.

Another obvious contender is Field Commision, who is actually the morning line favorite off of a decisive victory in the Ponche Handicap here at Calder on June 9th -- which just happened to be his first start in about 1 1/2 years. Given how impressive he was in his first start back, one has to think that he'll be even better today. If that is the case, then good luck beating him.

Apriority, a tough old sprinter looking for his first victory of the year, and Indiano, a perfect 3-for-3 at Calder, are other major contenders.

Race 11: Last year's Eclipse champion female sprinter, Musical Romance, headlines the field for the $400,000 Princess Rooney Handicap (gr. I). Coming off of a runner-up effort in the Humana Distaff (gr. I) behind runaway winner Groupie Doll, she is based here at Calder and is clearly coming into this race in good fashion -- after all, any horse that can breeze a half-mile in :46 1/5 here at Calder, like Musical Romance did on June 29th, is bound to be in good form. This, coupled with the fact that she ran second in this race last year -- makes her definitely the one to beat.

Nicole H, second in the Vagrancy Handicap (gr. II) last time out, and Bouquet Booth, decisive winner of a Churchill allowance race on May 24th, are other obvious contenders.

At Monmouth Park . . .

Race 10: The $200,000 Monmouth Cup Stakes (gr. II) marks the return of last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) winner Flat Out, who in unraced since finishing fifth in the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February. He's been training well for his new conditioner, Bill Mott, and while the one-mile distance of today's race may be a bit on the short side for him, it does look like a good spot to get him back to the races. Rule, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, will be making his first start since finishing seventh in the Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (gr. II), and while he may need to get a race under his belt before returning to his best form, he should appreciate the distance of this race. And if the two favorites fail, look for San Pablo, Sloane Ranger, or even Ponzi Scheme to pull off an upset.

Race 11: This year's running of the United Nations Stakes (gr. I) hasn't drawn the best of fields, nor the largest, but the seven horses entered in this eleven-furlong turf marathon should put on an interesting show. The morning line favorite is Turbo Compressor, looking to give trainer Todd Pletcher his fourth victory in this race. While there's no denying he's in good form -- he won the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup Stakes three weeks ago -- eleven furlongs may be a bit beyond his range. If that is the case, then Air Support, who finished a strong second in the Colonial Turf Cup, should be able to take advantage of the situation. Brilliant Speed, who finished third in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), and Slim Shadey, a graded stakes winner that has finished second in a pair of grade I turf events this year -- are also among the favorites. Also entered is Eldaafer, winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. III). While it's true that he has not been in very good form lately, you can't knock his soundness, and you never know when he's going to step up and run his best race.

-Keelerman

Suburban Handicap Entries and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $350,000 Suburban Handicap (gr. II), to be run on Saturday at Belmont Park. The nine-furlong race for three-year-olds and upward has drawn a spectacular field of nine, including grade I winners To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty, and Hymn Book, in addition to the speedy Trickmeister, the versatile Caixa Eletronica, and two-time graded stakes winner Mucho Macho Man.

1 Endorsement
2 Stay Thirsty
3 Caixa Eletronica
4 Buffum
5 Hymn Book
6 Trickmeister
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 To Honor and Serve

Stay Thirsty and Caixa Eletronica will run as a coupled entry, as both are owned by Repole Stable and trained by Todd Pletcher.

-Keelerman

SHACKLEFORD WINS THE METROPOLITAN HANDICAP!

Shackleford added a second grade I stakes victory to his record this afternoon when he held off a late-charging Caleb's Posse to win the $750,000 Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I) by a nose.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Shackleford got off to an excellent start in the one-mile race and quickly raced away to set the early pace while being pressured by Jackson Bend. Favored To Honor and Serve was racing in third along the rail, followed closely by Saginaw and Caixa Eletronica. Those five were separated by only about two lengths, with a gap of five back to stretch-running Caleb's Posse.

Through stiff fractions of :22.77, :44.73, and 1:08.52, Shackleford continued to lead the way gamely, with Jackson Bend still pushing him hard on the outside. Rounding the turn, Caixa Eletronica made a sweeping bid to reach contention as well, and To Honor and Serve shifted to the outside for a run at the leader. Entering the homestretch, it appeared as though Shackleford would be passed by numerous horses in the stretch.

However, the gritty colt gamely turned back the challenges and continued to lead into deep stretch. Suddenly, on the far outside, Caleb's Posse surged into contention, closing the gap with every stride. It looked as though Caleb's Posse would secure the victory, but Shackleford tenaciously held him off to win by a nose in the quick time of 1:33.30.

To Honor and Serve finished third, followed by Caixa Eletronica, Jackson Bend, and Saginaw. The winner is trained by Dale Romans and has now won three graded stakes races, the others being the 2011 Preakness Stakes (gr. I) and the 2012 Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II).

-Keelerman

Metropolitan Handicap Entreis and Post Positions

Here are the entries and post positions for the $750,000 Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I), to be run on Monday at Belmont Park. The one-mile race is one of the most prestigious in the country, and while the 2012 edition may not have drawn a large field, there's no denying that the horses entered are among the most talented in the country.

1 To Honor and Serve
2 Shackleford
3 Caleb's Posse
4 Saginaw
5 Caixa Eletronica
6 Jackson Bend

-Keelerman

TO HONOR AND SERVE WINS THE WESTCHESTER HANDICAP!

To Honor and Serve announced loudly and clearly that he is going to be a force in the handicap division this year, as he won the Westchester Handicap (gr. III) at Belmont Park this afternoon in a fashion that suggests he will be just about impossible to beat in the future.

Making his first start since winning the Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) last fall, To Honor and Serve got off to an excellent start against only three rivals and settled into the second position early on, rating comfortably while the speedy Bold Deed set a quick pace of :22.95 and :45.05. At one point, Bold Deed's lead was as large as seven lengths. Goombada Guska was racing in third, followed by Boys at Tosconova.

TO HONOR AND SERVE WINS THE CIGAR MILE!

To Honor and Serve secured his first grade I win this afternoon at Aqueduct, passing Calibrachoa in the stretch and holding off a late run from Hymn Book to win the $250,000 Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) by two lengths.

Under a patient ride from Jose Lezcano, To Honor and Serve settled into second as Calibrachoa set the pace. Together, the two ran the opening quarter mile in :23.05 and the half in :45.61. Sangaree was on the far outside in third, followed by Haynesfield in fourth toward the rail and Caixa Eletronica in between them. It was a long way back to Hymn Book, who trailed the field by as many as ten lengths at one stage.

Turning for home Calibrachoa still held the lead, but To Honor and Serve was still under a hand ride and easily took over the lead in early stretch. Hymn Book was putting in a good run on the far outside, but To Honor and Serve was never really threatened en route to a decisive victory in a very quick 1:33.89. Calibrachoa held third, with Haynesfield coming home fourth.

The race added another grade I win to the resume of trainer Bill Mott, who is having a fantastic month following the victories of Drosselmeyer in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) and Royal Delta in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I).

DROSSELMEYER WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC!

Drosselmeyer flew home under Mike Smith late tonight at Churchill Downs to score an authorative victory in the $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I).

Game On Dude and Uncle Mo set the early pace, with So You Think in behind them and To Honor and Serve also up close. Havre de Grace and Flat Out were further off the pace in about mid-pack, with Drosselmeyer toward the rear of the field and Rattlesnake Bridge the early trailer.

Around the far turn Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve moved up to challenge Game On Dude for the lead, but as the field turned for home neither could sustain their bids and left Game On Dude the clear leader. Under Chantal Sutherland, the colt stayed on gamely through the stretch but was passed late by Drosselmeyer, who rocketed home on the far outside to win the race decisively in 2:04 flat.

Game On Dude held second over Ruler On Ice, with Havre de Grace finishing third and favored Flat Out fourth. Uncle Mo eventually tired to finish tenth.

Weekend Stakes Thoughts

It’s always interesting to see how nine months can change a crop of three-year-olds.

The results of Saturday’s racing action yielded several surprises and dominating performances. To begin with, there was the $1,000,000 Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) at Parx Racing.

When analyzing the past performances of the race, if one had merely looked at To Honor and Serve’s three-year-old season, you could not make a case for him being the favorite. After finishing a distant third in both the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. I) and Florida Derby (gr. I), he showed no races until August, when he ran a dismal sixth in the Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II). Sure, he had rebounded well to win an allowance race, but in the Pennsylvania Derby he would be facing the winner of the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and the 2-3 finishers in the Travers Stakes (gr. I).

But past performances do not tell the whole story. To Honor and Serve was one of the finest two-year-olds of 2010, winning both the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). An injury early in his three-year-old season was responsible for the spring layoff, and the only reason he ran in the Amsterdam was because his trainer couldn’t find any other spots. His allowance win was a true measure of his ability, and he proved it by drawing away powerfully at the top of the stretch to win the Pennsylvania Derby in sharp fashion. He broke the stakes record, set in 1989, and stamped himself as a contender for the upcoming Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I).

In the Gallant Bloom Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont Park for fillies and mares, the favorite was the top older sprinter Tar Heel Mom, coming off of a runner-up effort in the Ballerina Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. The second choice was a three-year-old filly named Pomeroys Pistol. As it turned out, Tar Heel Mom failed to threaten while Pomeroy’s Pistol drew away impressively in the stretch to score by four lengths in what was her second graded stakes victory.

Her win was by no means a surprise. After all, she was coming off of a pair of seconds in the Test Stakes (gr. I) and Prioress Stakes (gr. I) at seven and six furlongs, respectively. The 6-1/2 furlong distance of the Gallant Bloom seemed just about perfect, and there was no questioning the fact that she was in good form. But nine months ago, she was an unknown filly competing in Gulfstream Park’s Old Hat Stakes (gr. III). Here is what I wrote about her at the time:

“The longshots are Pomeroys Pistol (10-1) and Mis Vizcaya (15-1). The former has but one win from three starts, that coming in a maiden special weight race. Her two starts since then have yielded a fifth in the Sorority Stakes and a third in an allowance race tired in the final eighth of a mile after nearly taking the lead.”

Sent off at 34-1, Pomeroys Pistol tracked the pace and held on well to finish second, beaten 1 ¾ lengths by Final Mesa. It turned out to be a harbinger of things to come, for Pomeroys Pistol has continued to improve and has now turned into one of the finest female sprinters in the country.

The last race I shall mention here was the Gallant Bob Stakes, also at Parx. The favorite in the six-furlong sprint for three-year-olds was Poseidon’s Warrior, but the eventual winner was a 19-1 shot named Royal Currier. The colt was making his tenth start of the year, and was entering off of an attempted start in the Gilded Time Stakes, where he reared at the start and was pulled off. His two performances prior to that had yielded a distant third in the Select Stakes and a dismal last-of-eight effort in the Quick Call Stakes on turf. But as a juvenile, he had made six starts, winning four and finishing second in the other two. He made his three-year-old debut in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, where he finished a distant second behind Fort Hughes, who won the six furlong event in 1:08.33.

In the Gallant Bob, Royal Currier bounded away from post position five to set blazing fractions of :21.59 and :43.43. Amazingly, he did not stop, cruising away to a four length lead passing the eighth pole – running five furlongs in :54.96 – before hitting the wire on top by 3 ¾ lengths in track-record time of 1:07.51. The performance may have earned himself a start in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) in November.


Funny how much nine months can change things.

-Keelerman