Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) third-place finisher Upstart turned in an eye-catching performance in his three-year-old debut, drawing off to score an impressive victory in the $400,000 Lambholm South Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park.
Showing posts with label Holy Bull Stakes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Holy Bull Stakes. Show all posts
Saturday, January 24, 2015
January 24th Racing Schedule
Get ready, everyone! A terrific day of racing awaits! For convenience in keeping track of all the action, I have compiled a list of the day's best races, arranged in order of post time:
Monday, January 19, 2015
2015 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) Entries
Remsen Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Frosted and Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) third-place finisher Upstart are among ten three-year-olds that have been entered in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park. Here are the entries:
Wednesday, January 30, 2013
Itsmyluckyday upsets Shanghai Bobby in Holy Bull Stakes
Itsmyluckyday wore down champion Shanghai Bobby to win the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, handing the previously undefeated colt the first defeat of his six-race career.
Ridden to victory by Elvis Trujillo, Itsmyluckyday got off to an excellent start at the beginning of the mile and a sixteenth race, and soon settled into third place as Shanghai Bobby and Clearly Now set moderately quick fractions of :23.34, :46.68, and 1:10.69 seconds. Frac Daddy, Fredericksburg, Tulira Castle, and Bern Identity were also flashing speed, while Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Joshua's Comprise were the early trailers.
Rounding the far turn, Itsmyluckyday advanced on the outside to challenge Shanghai Bobby for the lead, and the two colts hooked up in a stretch battle that quickly put them many lengths clear of the rest of the field. For a time, it appeared as though Shanghai Bobby might have enough left in the tank to hold off Itsmyluckyday, but the latter colt drew clear in the final sixteenth of a mile to win by two lengths. The final time of 1:41.81 was a new track record by nearly three-fifths of a second.
Clearly Now finished third, 11 1/2 lengths behind Shanghai Bobby. Joshua's Comprise, a 132.60-1 shot, rallied late to complete the superfecta. Bern Identity, Frac Daddy, Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, Tulira Castle, and Fredericksburg completed the order of finish.
The winner is a son of Lawyer Ron out of the Doneraile Court mare Viva La Slew. He is trained by Edward Plesa Jr. and is owned by Trilogy Stable and Laurie Plesa.
-Keelerman
Ridden to victory by Elvis Trujillo, Itsmyluckyday got off to an excellent start at the beginning of the mile and a sixteenth race, and soon settled into third place as Shanghai Bobby and Clearly Now set moderately quick fractions of :23.34, :46.68, and 1:10.69 seconds. Frac Daddy, Fredericksburg, Tulira Castle, and Bern Identity were also flashing speed, while Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, and Joshua's Comprise were the early trailers.
Rounding the far turn, Itsmyluckyday advanced on the outside to challenge Shanghai Bobby for the lead, and the two colts hooked up in a stretch battle that quickly put them many lengths clear of the rest of the field. For a time, it appeared as though Shanghai Bobby might have enough left in the tank to hold off Itsmyluckyday, but the latter colt drew clear in the final sixteenth of a mile to win by two lengths. The final time of 1:41.81 was a new track record by nearly three-fifths of a second.
Clearly Now finished third, 11 1/2 lengths behind Shanghai Bobby. Joshua's Comprise, a 132.60-1 shot, rallied late to complete the superfecta. Bern Identity, Frac Daddy, Dewey Square, Sr. Quisqueyano, Tulira Castle, and Fredericksburg completed the order of finish.
The winner is a son of Lawyer Ron out of the Doneraile Court mare Viva La Slew. He is trained by Edward Plesa Jr. and is owned by Trilogy Stable and Laurie Plesa.
-Keelerman
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Holy Bull Stakes Entries: Shanghai Bobby draws rail in 3yo debut
Recently crowned Eclipse champion two-year-old colt Shanghai Bobby has drawn the rail in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), the first start of his sophomore campaign.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Shanghai Bobby was unbeaten in five starts as a juvenile, culminating with a tenacious victory in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), which secured him the honor as champion of the division. The Holy Bull, an 8.5-furlong race that will be held on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, is the first of two planned prep races that will ready Shanghai Bobby for a run in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) on the first Saturday in May.
Lined up to face Shanghai Bobby in this deep renewal of the Holy Bull include horses like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square, the second- and third-place finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II); Bern Identity, winner of the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and runner-up in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III); Itsmyluckyday, dominate winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby; and Tulira Castle, sharp winner of an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on December 8th.
Post Positions:
1 Shanghai Bobby
2 Frac Daddy
3 Clearly Now
4 Bern Identity
5 Sr. Quisqueyano
6 Dewey Square
7 Itsmyluckyday
8 Tulira Castle
9 Fredericksburg
10 Joshua's Comprise
-Keelerman
Trained by Todd Pletcher, Shanghai Bobby was unbeaten in five starts as a juvenile, culminating with a tenacious victory in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), which secured him the honor as champion of the division. The Holy Bull, an 8.5-furlong race that will be held on Saturday at Gulfstream Park, is the first of two planned prep races that will ready Shanghai Bobby for a run in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) on the first Saturday in May.
Lined up to face Shanghai Bobby in this deep renewal of the Holy Bull include horses like Frac Daddy and Dewey Square, the second- and third-place finishers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II); Bern Identity, winner of the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and runner-up in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III); Itsmyluckyday, dominate winner of the Gulfstream Park Derby; and Tulira Castle, sharp winner of an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on December 8th.
Post Positions:
1 Shanghai Bobby
2 Frac Daddy
3 Clearly Now
4 Bern Identity
5 Sr. Quisqueyano
6 Dewey Square
7 Itsmyluckyday
8 Tulira Castle
9 Fredericksburg
10 Joshua's Comprise
-Keelerman
Sunday, January 29, 2012
ALGORITHMS WINS THE HOLY BULL!
Algorithms charged past Hansen in early stretch and pulled away powerfully to win the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park by a dominating five lengths.
Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano -- who also paired up to win the $200,000 Forward Gal Stakes (gr. II) with Broadway's Alibi earlier on the card -- Algorithms got off to a good beginning and settled into second early on as race favorite and 2011 Eclipse champion two-year-old male Hansen set the pace. Making his first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) back in November, Hansen stumbled at the start but recovered quickly to pull away from the field early on to establish a three, even four length lead while running fractions of :23.64 and :45.67. Silver Max was sitting in third along the rail, followed by Fort Loudon, Consortium, and My Adonis, the latter trailing the field by a sizable margin early on.
Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Javier Castellano -- who also paired up to win the $200,000 Forward Gal Stakes (gr. II) with Broadway's Alibi earlier on the card -- Algorithms got off to a good beginning and settled into second early on as race favorite and 2011 Eclipse champion two-year-old male Hansen set the pace. Making his first start since winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) back in November, Hansen stumbled at the start but recovered quickly to pull away from the field early on to establish a three, even four length lead while running fractions of :23.64 and :45.67. Silver Max was sitting in third along the rail, followed by Fort Loudon, Consortium, and My Adonis, the latter trailing the field by a sizable margin early on.
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN -- January 29th, 2012
I don't think anyone will argue with me when I state that the biggest, most exciting Triple Crown prep race so far this year is being run this afternoon at Gulfstream Park.
Oh, some of the other prep races have had their credentials. The Sham Stakes (gr. III) yielded an exciting finish, and the victorious Out of Bounds looks like a serious Triple Crown contender. The LeComte Stakes (gr. III) could turn out a number of fine three-year-olds. The Count Fleet Stakes and Smarty Jones Stakes each had their share of promising runners as well.
But none of those races can match the caliber of horses that this afternoon's Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) has drawn, because the Holy Bull drew Hansen, the 2011 Eclipse champion two-year-old male.
Oh, some of the other prep races have had their credentials. The Sham Stakes (gr. III) yielded an exciting finish, and the victorious Out of Bounds looks like a serious Triple Crown contender. The LeComte Stakes (gr. III) could turn out a number of fine three-year-olds. The Count Fleet Stakes and Smarty Jones Stakes each had their share of promising runners as well.
But none of those races can match the caliber of horses that this afternoon's Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) has drawn, because the Holy Bull drew Hansen, the 2011 Eclipse champion two-year-old male.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
DIALED IN WINS THE HOLY BULL!
With a tremendous late run, Dialed In weaved his way through traffic to score a convincing victory in the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III).
Favored Mucho Macho Man, Black N Beauty, and Ribo Bobo raced away to set the early pace, running the opening quarter mile in :23.96 as they dueled for the lead. In the meantime, Dialed In, under Julien Leparoux, dropped back to last. At one point he was as many as fifteen lengths off the pace. But he gradually edged closer, sneaking through along the rail to reach contention as the field turned for home. He then moved to the outside and turned on the afterburners, blasting past longshot Sweet Ducky to win going away.
Sweet Ducky, who looked like a winner in the stretch, wound up second at 14-1. Gourmet Dinner rallied to finish third, while Mucho Macho Man, who held the narrowest of leads as the field entered the homestretch, ended up fourth.
The final time was 1:35.19. It was a truly remarkable performance. Dialed In looks like a colt with a future!
-Keelerman
Favored Mucho Macho Man, Black N Beauty, and Ribo Bobo raced away to set the early pace, running the opening quarter mile in :23.96 as they dueled for the lead. In the meantime, Dialed In, under Julien Leparoux, dropped back to last. At one point he was as many as fifteen lengths off the pace. But he gradually edged closer, sneaking through along the rail to reach contention as the field turned for home. He then moved to the outside and turned on the afterburners, blasting past longshot Sweet Ducky to win going away.
Sweet Ducky, who looked like a winner in the stretch, wound up second at 14-1. Gourmet Dinner rallied to finish third, while Mucho Macho Man, who held the narrowest of leads as the field entered the homestretch, ended up fourth.
The final time was 1:35.19. It was a truly remarkable performance. Dialed In looks like a colt with a future!
-Keelerman
Saturday, January 29, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 29th, 2011
This post was supposed to be up earlier today--my apologies for the delay in posting! -Keelerman
The biggest Triple Crown prep race of the year so far is scheduled to be run tomorrow. The $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes, a grade III one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park, has drawn an impressive field of nine promising sophomores. Although the race did lose the expected favorite when it was announced that Boys at Tosconova would not run, there is still plenty of talent in the field and one or more will without a doubt make it to the Kentucky Derby. That's why the Holy Bull is this week's feature race.
FEATURE RACE ---- HOLY BULL STAKES (gr. III)
Gulfstream Park, One Mile on dirt.
Here are the entries. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Gourmet Dinner 3-1
2 Major Gain 8-1
3 Printing Press 12-1
4 Black N Beauty 6-1
5 Ribo Bobo 15-1
6 Leave of Absence 10-1
7 Mucho Macho Man 5-2
8 Sweet Ducky 8-1
9 Dialed In 6-1
Now let me give you a sampling of what these horses have done in the past.
* Gourmet Dinner rallied at odds of 20-1 to upset the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III).
* Major Gain won the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III).
* Mucho Macho Man has twice run second behind To Honor and Serve, in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II).
* Sweet Ducky proved victorious in a pair of stakes race at Monmouth Park last fall.
* Ribo Bobo won the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder.
As if that isn't enough, impressive maiden and allowance winners Dialed In and Black N Beauty have also been entered. What a field!
This race also holds special meaning to me, for it was the first race that I handicapped on this blog over a year ago.
Anyway, the favorite here is Mucho Macho Man. As I mentioned above, the son of Macho Uno finished second in both the Nashua and the Remsen. Although he has never won a stakes race, he has been improving with every race and his workouts have been brilliant. He has recorded three consecutive five furlong breezes in less than a minute at Gulfstream Park. I expect a sharp performance from this very large colt. Trained by Katherine Ritvo, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Eibar Coa.
The second choice is Gourmet Dinner, a fine, stakes-proven colt who pulled off a stunning upset in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. He won his first three starts, all at Calder, before losing the In Reality Stakes to a 46-1 shot in Reprized Halo. That set him up for the Delta Jackpot, which he won with a sharp rally from sixth. A cross-country trip to Hollywood Park yielded a fourth-place finish, but that was actually pretty good considering that it was his first start over a synthetic track. Tomorrow's race will mark his 2011 debut. Trained by Steven Standbridge, the son of Trippi will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Sebastian Madrid.
Major Gain, a son of More Than Ready, could run well at a price. He has only won a single race during his four-start career, but it was a big one. After finishing second in a maiden special weight to future stakes winner Caleb's Posse, Major Gain turned the tables in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III), rallying strongly in the stretch to defeat Rough Sailing and Caleb's Posse, among others.
Favored in the grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity, he failed to rally whatsoever, finishing slightly more than ten lengths behind victorious J B's Thunder in fifth.
His final start of 2010 resulted in a better performance. Sent off as the second choice in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), he battled through the stretch with Santiva and Astrology, finishing third while beaten just a half-length. It was a game performance and I greatly anticipate watching him tomorrow. He is trained by Wayne Catalano and will be ridden by Javier Castellano. He will carry 120 pounds.
Black N Beauty and Dialed In, two lightly-raced colts, will be scrutinized closely tomorrow as they take on their stakes-winning counterparts. The latter has only made one start, but it was impressive. The son of Mineshaft rallied like a rocket in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, coming from 11 1/2 lengths back at the five-sixteenths pole to win by a half-length. Trained by Nick Zito, if he produces a similar rally tomorrow it should carry him to victory. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Black N Beauty also brings promising credentials into the Holy Bull. Although his first start yielded an unimpressive fourth-place finish, his second start got him noticed. Sent off as the third choice in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Belmont Park, he rallied gamely through the stretch to finish second to the highly-regarded Brethren, beaten just a half-length. The final time was a spectacular 1:08 4/5.
He finally left the maiden ranks in his third start, rallying from just off the pace to score by almost three lengths in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs. That set him up for an allowance race on January 7th at Gulfstream Park. The third choice, he broke slowly but was sent straight to the lead where he led all the way to the wire, proving best by 2 1/2 lengths over Printing Press. Trained by Dale Romans, the son of Devil His Due was purchased for just $2,500 as a yearling. Tomorrow, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. He will likely set the pace.
Sweet Ducky, a son of Pulpit, has had a very good career thus far. He raced five times last year and won three races. In his first start, he won a five furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth Park by five lengths. A less-than-ideal trip in the 5-1/2 furlong Tyro Stakes saw him finish a well-beaten fourth. However, he reaffirmed his status as a stakes-caliber colt by decisively defeating Curlinello in both the Garden State Stakes and the Seton Hall University Stakes. He then took a step up in class.
Sent off as the second choice in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, he stayed close to a fast pace before weakening to finish fourth, about ten lengths behind the winner. He has not raced since then. However, he has been firing off some excellent workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Trained by Kelly Breen, he will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Bravo.
Leave of Absence, Printing Press, and Ribo Bobo complete the field. Leave of Absence has recorded a win, a second, and a third from three starts. The son of Harlan’s Holiday broke his maiden second time out going six furlongs at Aqueduct, stopping the clock in 1:09 2/5 under a hand ride. The colt then finished a fast-closing second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 8th. He seems like a colt that would benefit from stretching out to a longer distance, which he will be doing here. Trained by Richard Violette Jr., he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.
Printing Press, as I briefly mentioned above, finished second to Black N Beauty in an allowance race. Prior to that effort, he had won a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park; finished a dismal seventh in the grade III Sapling Stakes; and twice ran third in minor stakes races. He would need to show some serious improvement to contend here. On the other hand, the son of Tapit has at times shown a potent late kick and could be coming fast in the end if the pace is quick enough. Trained by Teresa Pompay, he will be ridden by Elvis Trujillo and will carry 116 pounds.
Finally, we come to Ribo Bobo, the longest shot in the field. The stakes-winning son of Louis Quatorze has made seven starts, with his biggest win coming in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder Race Course. He also ran second in the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes to Manicero and second in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) to Astrology. However, his most recent start was far from impressive. In the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Calder, he ran a distant sixth behind Manicero. If he runs his best race, he could contend here. Trained by Manuel Azpurua, he will be ridden by Edgar Prado and will carry 120 pounds.
It’s without a doubt an amazing field of runners, but I know who I’m going to pick.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Dialed In
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Leave of Absence
5 Major Gain
6 Black N Beauty
7 Printing Press
8 Sweet Ducky
9 Ribo Bobo
As I said before, Mucho Macho Man has been turning in some incredible workouts and just keeps getting better. A versatile colt, I expect him to get a perfect trip and win with authority. Dialed In is a very nice colt, but may be better over a less speed-favoring track and at two-turns.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Two races prior to the Holy Bull, there is the grade II Forward Gal Stakes, a seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies. Like the Holy Bull, it has drawn a spectacular field of runners.
The morning line favorite in Dancinginherdreams, who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden by five lengths on October 10th going six furlongs at Keeneland. This earned her the status as the even-money favorite in the one-mile Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs, which she won by slightly more than five lengths. She seems to be a potential superstar; a filly who has an extremely bright future.
However, there are a couple of other potential superstars lined up to face her. R Heat Lightning is one of them. Winner of the grade I Spinaway Stakes, she finished a courageous second to Awesome Feather in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last time out. This will be her 2011 debut.
Another really nice filly in this race is Devilish Lady. She has won six of her ten starts, including her last four. As if that isn’t enough, she has won her last four starts by a combined 27 ½ lengths. As if that wasn’t enough, three of those four races were stakes races! She has shown a sharp turn of foot and the ability to simply crush her rivals with Rachel Alexandra-like pounces. I can’t wait to see how she does.
Another notable race is the fifth at Gulfstream on Saturday, a seven-furlong allowance race for three-year-old colts. The morning line favorite is Sovereign Default, who has won his only race. Way back on July 15th, he defeated the very nice colt Stay Thirsty in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. A setback apparently occurred after that, for he has not started since then.
Crossbow is a colt who could take advantage of Sovereign Default’s likely rustiness. He broke his maiden going six furlongs at Aqueduct on January 2nd by two lengths. He has shown great speed in his two starts and may prove impossible to catch here.
In the fifth race at Gulfstream on Sunday, a one-mile maiden special weight race, the colt I am watching is Sinorice. He has lost all of his four starts so far but has never yet finished worse than third. In his most recent start, on January 8th going one-mile at Gulfstream, he rallied to finish a strong third despite being bumped hard at the start. With a clearer trip, he should run well tomorrow.
Then there is the fifth race at Fair Grounds on Sunday, an allowance optional claiming event at one-mile and seventy yards. It has drawn five horses, led by the 3-5 favorite Machen. The son of Distorted Humor broke his maiden going six furlongs at Fair Grounds, winning by 5 ½ lengths in 1:10 2/5. I can’t see him losing tomorrow.
Finally, there is the seventh race at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race, the 9-5 morning line favorite is Commander, who finished a close third behind Alternation and Elite Alex in an allowance optional claiming race just two weeks ago.
On a side note, Sunshine Millions day is today! An exciting set of six races are to be run this afternoon at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. I will be posting the results as the races are run later this afternoon. Two of my favorite horses, the eight-year-olds Cost of Freedom and Presious Passion, will be running.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
The biggest Triple Crown prep race of the year so far is scheduled to be run tomorrow. The $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes, a grade III one-turn mile at Gulfstream Park, has drawn an impressive field of nine promising sophomores. Although the race did lose the expected favorite when it was announced that Boys at Tosconova would not run, there is still plenty of talent in the field and one or more will without a doubt make it to the Kentucky Derby. That's why the Holy Bull is this week's feature race.
FEATURE RACE ---- HOLY BULL STAKES (gr. III)
Gulfstream Park, One Mile on dirt.
Here are the entries. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Gourmet Dinner 3-1
2 Major Gain 8-1
3 Printing Press 12-1
4 Black N Beauty 6-1
5 Ribo Bobo 15-1
6 Leave of Absence 10-1
7 Mucho Macho Man 5-2
8 Sweet Ducky 8-1
9 Dialed In 6-1
Now let me give you a sampling of what these horses have done in the past.
* Gourmet Dinner rallied at odds of 20-1 to upset the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III).
* Major Gain won the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III).
* Mucho Macho Man has twice run second behind To Honor and Serve, in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II).
* Sweet Ducky proved victorious in a pair of stakes race at Monmouth Park last fall.
* Ribo Bobo won the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder.
As if that isn't enough, impressive maiden and allowance winners Dialed In and Black N Beauty have also been entered. What a field!
This race also holds special meaning to me, for it was the first race that I handicapped on this blog over a year ago.
Anyway, the favorite here is Mucho Macho Man. As I mentioned above, the son of Macho Uno finished second in both the Nashua and the Remsen. Although he has never won a stakes race, he has been improving with every race and his workouts have been brilliant. He has recorded three consecutive five furlong breezes in less than a minute at Gulfstream Park. I expect a sharp performance from this very large colt. Trained by Katherine Ritvo, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Eibar Coa.
The second choice is Gourmet Dinner, a fine, stakes-proven colt who pulled off a stunning upset in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes. He won his first three starts, all at Calder, before losing the In Reality Stakes to a 46-1 shot in Reprized Halo. That set him up for the Delta Jackpot, which he won with a sharp rally from sixth. A cross-country trip to Hollywood Park yielded a fourth-place finish, but that was actually pretty good considering that it was his first start over a synthetic track. Tomorrow's race will mark his 2011 debut. Trained by Steven Standbridge, the son of Trippi will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Sebastian Madrid.
Major Gain, a son of More Than Ready, could run well at a price. He has only won a single race during his four-start career, but it was a big one. After finishing second in a maiden special weight to future stakes winner Caleb's Posse, Major Gain turned the tables in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III), rallying strongly in the stretch to defeat Rough Sailing and Caleb's Posse, among others.
Favored in the grade I Dixiana Breeders' Futurity, he failed to rally whatsoever, finishing slightly more than ten lengths behind victorious J B's Thunder in fifth.
His final start of 2010 resulted in a better performance. Sent off as the second choice in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), he battled through the stretch with Santiva and Astrology, finishing third while beaten just a half-length. It was a game performance and I greatly anticipate watching him tomorrow. He is trained by Wayne Catalano and will be ridden by Javier Castellano. He will carry 120 pounds.
Black N Beauty and Dialed In, two lightly-raced colts, will be scrutinized closely tomorrow as they take on their stakes-winning counterparts. The latter has only made one start, but it was impressive. The son of Mineshaft rallied like a rocket in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, coming from 11 1/2 lengths back at the five-sixteenths pole to win by a half-length. Trained by Nick Zito, if he produces a similar rally tomorrow it should carry him to victory. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Black N Beauty also brings promising credentials into the Holy Bull. Although his first start yielded an unimpressive fourth-place finish, his second start got him noticed. Sent off as the third choice in a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Belmont Park, he rallied gamely through the stretch to finish second to the highly-regarded Brethren, beaten just a half-length. The final time was a spectacular 1:08 4/5.
He finally left the maiden ranks in his third start, rallying from just off the pace to score by almost three lengths in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden race at Churchill Downs. That set him up for an allowance race on January 7th at Gulfstream Park. The third choice, he broke slowly but was sent straight to the lead where he led all the way to the wire, proving best by 2 1/2 lengths over Printing Press. Trained by Dale Romans, the son of Devil His Due was purchased for just $2,500 as a yearling. Tomorrow, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. He will likely set the pace.
Sweet Ducky, a son of Pulpit, has had a very good career thus far. He raced five times last year and won three races. In his first start, he won a five furlong maiden special weight at Monmouth Park by five lengths. A less-than-ideal trip in the 5-1/2 furlong Tyro Stakes saw him finish a well-beaten fourth. However, he reaffirmed his status as a stakes-caliber colt by decisively defeating Curlinello in both the Garden State Stakes and the Seton Hall University Stakes. He then took a step up in class.
Sent off as the second choice in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, he stayed close to a fast pace before weakening to finish fourth, about ten lengths behind the winner. He has not raced since then. However, he has been firing off some excellent workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Trained by Kelly Breen, he will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Joe Bravo.
Leave of Absence, Printing Press, and Ribo Bobo complete the field. Leave of Absence has recorded a win, a second, and a third from three starts. The son of Harlan’s Holiday broke his maiden second time out going six furlongs at Aqueduct, stopping the clock in 1:09 2/5 under a hand ride. The colt then finished a fast-closing second in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 8th. He seems like a colt that would benefit from stretching out to a longer distance, which he will be doing here. Trained by Richard Violette Jr., he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.
Printing Press, as I briefly mentioned above, finished second to Black N Beauty in an allowance race. Prior to that effort, he had won a maiden special weight at Monmouth Park; finished a dismal seventh in the grade III Sapling Stakes; and twice ran third in minor stakes races. He would need to show some serious improvement to contend here. On the other hand, the son of Tapit has at times shown a potent late kick and could be coming fast in the end if the pace is quick enough. Trained by Teresa Pompay, he will be ridden by Elvis Trujillo and will carry 116 pounds.
Finally, we come to Ribo Bobo, the longest shot in the field. The stakes-winning son of Louis Quatorze has made seven starts, with his biggest win coming in the Foolish Pleasure Stakes at Calder Race Course. He also ran second in the Jack Price Juvenile Stakes to Manicero and second in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) to Astrology. However, his most recent start was far from impressive. In the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes at Calder, he ran a distant sixth behind Manicero. If he runs his best race, he could contend here. Trained by Manuel Azpurua, he will be ridden by Edgar Prado and will carry 120 pounds.
It’s without a doubt an amazing field of runners, but I know who I’m going to pick.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Dialed In
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Leave of Absence
5 Major Gain
6 Black N Beauty
7 Printing Press
8 Sweet Ducky
9 Ribo Bobo
As I said before, Mucho Macho Man has been turning in some incredible workouts and just keeps getting better. A versatile colt, I expect him to get a perfect trip and win with authority. Dialed In is a very nice colt, but may be better over a less speed-favoring track and at two-turns.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Two races prior to the Holy Bull, there is the grade II Forward Gal Stakes, a seven-furlong race for three-year-old fillies. Like the Holy Bull, it has drawn a spectacular field of runners.
The morning line favorite in Dancinginherdreams, who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden by five lengths on October 10th going six furlongs at Keeneland. This earned her the status as the even-money favorite in the one-mile Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs, which she won by slightly more than five lengths. She seems to be a potential superstar; a filly who has an extremely bright future.
However, there are a couple of other potential superstars lined up to face her. R Heat Lightning is one of them. Winner of the grade I Spinaway Stakes, she finished a courageous second to Awesome Feather in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last time out. This will be her 2011 debut.
Another really nice filly in this race is Devilish Lady. She has won six of her ten starts, including her last four. As if that isn’t enough, she has won her last four starts by a combined 27 ½ lengths. As if that wasn’t enough, three of those four races were stakes races! She has shown a sharp turn of foot and the ability to simply crush her rivals with Rachel Alexandra-like pounces. I can’t wait to see how she does.
Another notable race is the fifth at Gulfstream on Saturday, a seven-furlong allowance race for three-year-old colts. The morning line favorite is Sovereign Default, who has won his only race. Way back on July 15th, he defeated the very nice colt Stay Thirsty in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. A setback apparently occurred after that, for he has not started since then.
Crossbow is a colt who could take advantage of Sovereign Default’s likely rustiness. He broke his maiden going six furlongs at Aqueduct on January 2nd by two lengths. He has shown great speed in his two starts and may prove impossible to catch here.
In the fifth race at Gulfstream on Sunday, a one-mile maiden special weight race, the colt I am watching is Sinorice. He has lost all of his four starts so far but has never yet finished worse than third. In his most recent start, on January 8th going one-mile at Gulfstream, he rallied to finish a strong third despite being bumped hard at the start. With a clearer trip, he should run well tomorrow.
Then there is the fifth race at Fair Grounds on Sunday, an allowance optional claiming event at one-mile and seventy yards. It has drawn five horses, led by the 3-5 favorite Machen. The son of Distorted Humor broke his maiden going six furlongs at Fair Grounds, winning by 5 ½ lengths in 1:10 2/5. I can’t see him losing tomorrow.
Finally, there is the seventh race at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race, the 9-5 morning line favorite is Commander, who finished a close third behind Alternation and Elite Alex in an allowance optional claiming race just two weeks ago.
On a side note, Sunshine Millions day is today! An exciting set of six races are to be run this afternoon at Gulfstream and Santa Anita. I will be posting the results as the races are run later this afternoon. Two of my favorite horses, the eight-year-olds Cost of Freedom and Presious Passion, will be running.
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
Sunday, January 24, 2010
POST RACE ---- THE HOLY BULL STAKES (gr. III)
January 24th, 2010
Well, things didn't quite go the way I thought they would in the Holy Bull. First, I shall post a list of the actual results, followed by the order I believed they would finish. Then I will pour over the details and find out what happened and why.
Actual Results
1 Winslow Homer
2 Jackson Bend
3 William's Kitten
4 Thank U Philippe
5 Homeboykris
6 Aikenite
7 Wild Lime
8 Litigation Risk
9 Piscitelli
My Selections
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Piscitelli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
So as I compare the two lists, I see that I was very wrong about Thank U Philippe, who ran a much better race than I expected him to. The exact opposite happened with Piscitelli, who ran much poorer than I thought he would. Perhaps I paid a little too much attention to his fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But now I must go into the details of every horse in the race and find out exactly what happened.
1 Winslow Homer
I was very excited to see that he came through with the win, even if only by three-quarters of a length. Racing far back early, he gradually moved up as they approached the final turn, split Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, and just kept fighting off Jackson Bend, who had plenty of time to wear him down but just couldn't get to him. According to his trainer, Winslow Homer should be better in two turn races than in one turn races, and the longer he goes, the better. However, his pedigree does raise a question. He is by Unbridled's Song, a fine sire, but it seems like his foals aren't quite up to the classic distances. But this could very well mean nothing, as the same things were said about Bold Ruler back in the sixties. It seemed as though he just couldn't get a horse who could win at the classic distances, until he sired Secretariat. So I'm greatly looking forward to seeing Winslow Homer race again, hopefully in the nine furlong Fountain of Youth, where he will likely take on Buddy's Saint.
2 Jackson Bend
Just as I had worried, Jackson Bend raced towards the lead but was caught wide on the turn. He raced rather close to the rather quick fractions set by Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, made his move, but just couldn't get to the winner, even though he had the length of the stretch to cut him down. This does raise questions as to whether he can get the classic distances, but it was still a fine race. He should improve from here. Perhaps he will contest the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 20th. If Winslow Homer, Buddy's Saint, and Super Saver all come out for that race as well, it could very well be the most exciting Triple Crown prep race of the year.
3 William's Kitten
Ran the race I thought he would, laying back early and coming late, but his run just wasn't what it needed to be. He came into the homestretch something like five or six wide, so I'm still left wondering whether he can handle turns or not. He doesn't seem to be able to hug them real well. Still, the race was a good one, although it seems to say again that he is just below the best of his crop at this time. Of course, Summer Bird, winner of last year's Belmont Stakes and the Eclipse Award for Champion 3yo Male wasn't at the top of his crop this early either. In fact, I don't believe Summer Bird had even started at this point last year. So William's Kitten has a lot of time to make up the ground, and perhaps he could be a legitimate Triple Crown horse in just a few months.
4 Thank U Philippe
Actually ran a really nice race, much better than I expected. He set the pace with Homeboykris and just couldn't quite sustain it. Still, the pace he set was very fast, and he is a horse that I will look forward to seeing race again. If he was to ship down to Louisiana or Arkansas, I believe that he would have an excellent chance at one the big preps down there.
5 Homeboykris
He ran a very similar race to the one Thank U Philippe ran, but somehow I'm just not as impressed with his performance. His sire, Roman Ruler, appears to be an excellent sire so far, but never did get ten furlongs. He attempted to win the 2005 Travers Stakes, but could do no better than third behind Flower Alley and Bellamy Road. Homeboykris just seems to be one of those horses who upset a grade I stakes race and fail to do it again. Of course, seeing the he did run some pretty good fractions, he could definitely turn into a fine sprinter.
6 Aikenite
He ran like he wasn't ready for the race. He just hung around about mid pack and failed to fire. Although he showed lots of potential as a two year old, he just doesn't seem to be up to running against the best at this point in his career. He could very well turn into a fine stakes horse. He just doesn't strike me as a Triple Crown contender.
7 Wild Lime
Ah, the mystery horse, the one I knew nothing about. It seems as though I didn't need to know about him, as he ran only slightly better than I though he would, finishing seventh. I had him picked to finish eighth. If I recall, he ran a similar race to the one Aikenite ran, just hovering around in midpack and failing to put in a run.
8 Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, Alan Garcia was unable to pull off a Da'Tara ride. I don't believe Litigation Risk put in any run at all. He appears to be one of those horses who tried and failed along the Triple Crown trail.
9 Piscitelli
I was perhaps most wrong about this colt, as I had him pegged to run sixth, which he most certainly did not. I believe that I was influenced by his nice run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 50-1. Although on the surface it appears that he did not run the race he did in the Breeders' Cup, when I examined both races closer, I realized that perhaps he ran an even better race today than he did in the Juvenile. I say this mainly because I went and examined the fractions of both races. It appears that they went three-quarters of a mile just over three seconds faster in the Holy Bull than they did in the Juvenile. This supposedly equates to something like fifteen lengths. Therefore, Piscitelli ran at least ten lengths faster, maybe more than that, in the Holy Bull than in the Breeders' Cup, and as would be expected, was a bit weary by the time they got to the homestretch. So I am greatly looking forward to his next race. Perhaps he will get an easier pace next time around. Still, at this point in the year, Piscitelli does not seem like a Triple Crown horse. That may change, but it doesn't look likely.
And so altogether, the Holy Bull Stakes was a very fascinating race, and several questions were answered. However, it is only January, and there are still 96 days until the first of the Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby. Between now and then, there will be many more prep races, and many more horses will rise up to the challenge of a stakes race, just like Winslow Homer, and defeat many more highly regarded horses. So many things will change, but for now, it appears than Winslow Homer could be just a bit better than anybody though he was.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
Well, things didn't quite go the way I thought they would in the Holy Bull. First, I shall post a list of the actual results, followed by the order I believed they would finish. Then I will pour over the details and find out what happened and why.
Actual Results
1 Winslow Homer
2 Jackson Bend
3 William's Kitten
4 Thank U Philippe
5 Homeboykris
6 Aikenite
7 Wild Lime
8 Litigation Risk
9 Piscitelli
My Selections
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Piscitelli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
So as I compare the two lists, I see that I was very wrong about Thank U Philippe, who ran a much better race than I expected him to. The exact opposite happened with Piscitelli, who ran much poorer than I thought he would. Perhaps I paid a little too much attention to his fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But now I must go into the details of every horse in the race and find out exactly what happened.
1 Winslow Homer
I was very excited to see that he came through with the win, even if only by three-quarters of a length. Racing far back early, he gradually moved up as they approached the final turn, split Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, and just kept fighting off Jackson Bend, who had plenty of time to wear him down but just couldn't get to him. According to his trainer, Winslow Homer should be better in two turn races than in one turn races, and the longer he goes, the better. However, his pedigree does raise a question. He is by Unbridled's Song, a fine sire, but it seems like his foals aren't quite up to the classic distances. But this could very well mean nothing, as the same things were said about Bold Ruler back in the sixties. It seemed as though he just couldn't get a horse who could win at the classic distances, until he sired Secretariat. So I'm greatly looking forward to seeing Winslow Homer race again, hopefully in the nine furlong Fountain of Youth, where he will likely take on Buddy's Saint.
2 Jackson Bend
Just as I had worried, Jackson Bend raced towards the lead but was caught wide on the turn. He raced rather close to the rather quick fractions set by Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, made his move, but just couldn't get to the winner, even though he had the length of the stretch to cut him down. This does raise questions as to whether he can get the classic distances, but it was still a fine race. He should improve from here. Perhaps he will contest the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 20th. If Winslow Homer, Buddy's Saint, and Super Saver all come out for that race as well, it could very well be the most exciting Triple Crown prep race of the year.
3 William's Kitten
Ran the race I thought he would, laying back early and coming late, but his run just wasn't what it needed to be. He came into the homestretch something like five or six wide, so I'm still left wondering whether he can handle turns or not. He doesn't seem to be able to hug them real well. Still, the race was a good one, although it seems to say again that he is just below the best of his crop at this time. Of course, Summer Bird, winner of last year's Belmont Stakes and the Eclipse Award for Champion 3yo Male wasn't at the top of his crop this early either. In fact, I don't believe Summer Bird had even started at this point last year. So William's Kitten has a lot of time to make up the ground, and perhaps he could be a legitimate Triple Crown horse in just a few months.
4 Thank U Philippe
Actually ran a really nice race, much better than I expected. He set the pace with Homeboykris and just couldn't quite sustain it. Still, the pace he set was very fast, and he is a horse that I will look forward to seeing race again. If he was to ship down to Louisiana or Arkansas, I believe that he would have an excellent chance at one the big preps down there.
5 Homeboykris
He ran a very similar race to the one Thank U Philippe ran, but somehow I'm just not as impressed with his performance. His sire, Roman Ruler, appears to be an excellent sire so far, but never did get ten furlongs. He attempted to win the 2005 Travers Stakes, but could do no better than third behind Flower Alley and Bellamy Road. Homeboykris just seems to be one of those horses who upset a grade I stakes race and fail to do it again. Of course, seeing the he did run some pretty good fractions, he could definitely turn into a fine sprinter.
6 Aikenite
He ran like he wasn't ready for the race. He just hung around about mid pack and failed to fire. Although he showed lots of potential as a two year old, he just doesn't seem to be up to running against the best at this point in his career. He could very well turn into a fine stakes horse. He just doesn't strike me as a Triple Crown contender.
7 Wild Lime
Ah, the mystery horse, the one I knew nothing about. It seems as though I didn't need to know about him, as he ran only slightly better than I though he would, finishing seventh. I had him picked to finish eighth. If I recall, he ran a similar race to the one Aikenite ran, just hovering around in midpack and failing to put in a run.
8 Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, Alan Garcia was unable to pull off a Da'Tara ride. I don't believe Litigation Risk put in any run at all. He appears to be one of those horses who tried and failed along the Triple Crown trail.
9 Piscitelli
I was perhaps most wrong about this colt, as I had him pegged to run sixth, which he most certainly did not. I believe that I was influenced by his nice run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 50-1. Although on the surface it appears that he did not run the race he did in the Breeders' Cup, when I examined both races closer, I realized that perhaps he ran an even better race today than he did in the Juvenile. I say this mainly because I went and examined the fractions of both races. It appears that they went three-quarters of a mile just over three seconds faster in the Holy Bull than they did in the Juvenile. This supposedly equates to something like fifteen lengths. Therefore, Piscitelli ran at least ten lengths faster, maybe more than that, in the Holy Bull than in the Breeders' Cup, and as would be expected, was a bit weary by the time they got to the homestretch. So I am greatly looking forward to his next race. Perhaps he will get an easier pace next time around. Still, at this point in the year, Piscitelli does not seem like a Triple Crown horse. That may change, but it doesn't look likely.
And so altogether, the Holy Bull Stakes was a very fascinating race, and several questions were answered. However, it is only January, and there are still 96 days until the first of the Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby. Between now and then, there will be many more prep races, and many more horses will rise up to the challenge of a stakes race, just like Winslow Homer, and defeat many more highly regarded horses. So many things will change, but for now, it appears than Winslow Homer could be just a bit better than anybody though he was.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
Friday, January 22, 2010
RACE ANALYSIS: THE HOLY BULL STAKES (gr. III)
Tomorrow, January 23rd, is going to be a fun day. It's time for everyone to get their first look at newly turned three year old Jackson Bend, who put on a show last year down in Florida, sweeping five of his six starts, including the Florida Stallion Series. His last race was on October 17th, so he has been given a break of three months. Although he has never won a graded stakes race, he did succeed in nailing D'Funnybone by a half in the Frank Gomez Memorial Stakes over six furlongs at Calder Race Course. D'Funnybone is no slouch himself. He came back from that race to win the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) by 10 1/2 lengths, and then proceeded to dominate the Futurity Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park by 4 3/4 lengths. That said, I shall now dive deep into the details of every horse, evaluate their chances, and try to pick the winner.
1. Thank U Philippe
I know very little about this colt, except that he finished second to Buddy's Saint in the grade II Nashua Stakes, beaten twelve lengths. He also finished second to Jackson Bend in the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion Series, I believe. Beyond that, I know nothing. He could very well run a great race, and he could very well run last. He will be ridden by E. Castro.
2. Homeboykris
The upset winner of the Champagne Stakes failed to fire in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November, checking in fifth. Nearly two months later he's back, and threatens to knock off Jackson Bend in their first meeting. Ridden by Edgar Prado, Homeboykris will carry the high weight in the race, 122 pounds. Hopefully, it won't come down to those two extra pounds. I suspect that he will run a good race, but it will be hard to beat Jackson Bend. Just a note, Homeboykris is a gelding, so if he does turn out to be a really nice horse, we should be able to enjoy his races for many years to come.
3. Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, I have not been able to find out very much about this colt. It appears that his last race was in the grade III Boyd Gaming's Delta Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs, where he finished fourth behind Rule, beaten 4 3/4 lengths. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia, which is never a bad thing. Maybe Garcia can pull off a ride like the one he pulled off in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, getting Da'Tara to wire the field for a miracle 5 1/4 length win at odds of 38-1.
4. Pisciteli
His biggest question is whether or not he can handle the dirt. He has run his past three races on synthetics, but his lone win came in a maiden race on the dirt at Monmouth Park. This seems to say that he can handle it okay. Prior to that win, he was beaten a head by Interactif in another maiden race on dirt. Interactif has turned into a very fine colt, so this does say something for Pisciteli. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who rode him to his fourth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In that race, he set the pace for about seven furlongs before giving up the lead to Noble's Promise. However, he did manage to come back at the latter, finishing a head behind him and only a length behind victorious Vale of York. If he can race that well on dirt, he could very well win this race.
5. William's Kitten
This is one colt who could very well run better than his odds. In his first race, he ran poorly, finishing seventh in a five-furlong turf maiden race at Churchill Downs. However, he followed that up with a win in a one-mile turf maiden race at Ellis Park. That race was run on a track labeled good. He then ran in a $25,000 one-mile turf allowance race at Ruidoso Downs. He finished third. Following this, he stepped up to a stakes race, the $150,000 Sunday Silence Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, down at Louisiana Downs. This was perhaps his most fascinating race, to me that is, as the race was rained off the turf, and William's Kitten sat last for much of the race before coming on with a six wide run to win the race by 4 3/4 lengths. Tried on a synthetic track, he ran fifth in the grade II Grey Stakes up at Woodbine, beaten two lengths at a-mile-and-a-sixteenth, and then finished eighth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 78-1. However, he was wide on the final turn and was only beaten by six-and-a-half lengths. Then, three weeks later, he finished second to the nice colt Super Saver in the grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, beaten five lengths. Behind him was Thiskyhasnolimit, winner of the Iroquis Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. So what does this tell us? William's Kitten seems to be able to run impressively on real dirt. So we'll see what he does on Saturday.
6. Winslow Homer
His biggest win thus far has come in an allowance race on November 20th of last year. This would mean just about nothing, except that he won by 12 1/2 lengths. Any young horse who wins any race by that much should be watched. He also gets into the race with only 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez, who is certainly one of the best jockeys around. He has won two of three races, and worked a half mile in :50.30 at Palm Meadows on January 18th. He seems ready to run a big one.
7. Wild Lime
Another horse I was unable to locate any information on. All I know is that he will be ridden by J. Lezcano.
8. Aikenite
This colt has the possibility to run huge. His career so far has consisted of a maiden race at Saratoga, which he won, a nice third in the grade I Hopeful Stakes in only his second start, a second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland, a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, beaten 2 3/4 lengths, and as far as I know, nothing further. So he is still looking for his first stakes win, but he already has two grade I placings and a very nice fifth in the Breeders' Cup. It is safe to say that he has run well on dirt and synthetics, and I expect him to run a very nice race on Saturday.
9. Jackson Bend
So far, he appears to be the best horse in the race. However, he has drawn post position nine, which is certainly not the greatest post position for him. Considering that he likes to run fairly close to the pace, his jockey, Jeremy Rose, may have to send him early to keep him from being caught wide entering the turn. He worked a bullet five furlongs at Palm Meadows, turning in a :59.30. He appears to be ready to roll, but strange things can happen when a three year old makes his debut. He will be carrying 120 pounds, two less than highweight Homeboykris.
And so, now that I have thoroughly investigated the details of every horse in the race, (and in the cases of Wild Lime, Litigation Risk, and Thank U Philippe, everything I know) I can select my picks for the race. The following list is the order in which I believe they will finish. To date, I have never succeeded in doing this, that is, selecting the exact order of finish for a race, but I have come close a couple of times. Maybe Saturday will be the day.
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homeboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Pisciteli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
This race could go many different ways. It is very possible that Winslow Homer could be a much better horse than I think, just as it's very possible that he could finish last. Litigation Risk, whom I have selected to finish last, could very well turn into the next Secretariat. Nobody knows at this point. Homeboykris could run a huge race and win by twenty lengths, or he could finish last. Jackson Bend could very well be caught three or four wide. We'll find out tomorrow.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
1. Thank U Philippe
I know very little about this colt, except that he finished second to Buddy's Saint in the grade II Nashua Stakes, beaten twelve lengths. He also finished second to Jackson Bend in the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion Series, I believe. Beyond that, I know nothing. He could very well run a great race, and he could very well run last. He will be ridden by E. Castro.
2. Homeboykris
The upset winner of the Champagne Stakes failed to fire in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November, checking in fifth. Nearly two months later he's back, and threatens to knock off Jackson Bend in their first meeting. Ridden by Edgar Prado, Homeboykris will carry the high weight in the race, 122 pounds. Hopefully, it won't come down to those two extra pounds. I suspect that he will run a good race, but it will be hard to beat Jackson Bend. Just a note, Homeboykris is a gelding, so if he does turn out to be a really nice horse, we should be able to enjoy his races for many years to come.
3. Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, I have not been able to find out very much about this colt. It appears that his last race was in the grade III Boyd Gaming's Delta Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs, where he finished fourth behind Rule, beaten 4 3/4 lengths. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia, which is never a bad thing. Maybe Garcia can pull off a ride like the one he pulled off in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, getting Da'Tara to wire the field for a miracle 5 1/4 length win at odds of 38-1.
4. Pisciteli
His biggest question is whether or not he can handle the dirt. He has run his past three races on synthetics, but his lone win came in a maiden race on the dirt at Monmouth Park. This seems to say that he can handle it okay. Prior to that win, he was beaten a head by Interactif in another maiden race on dirt. Interactif has turned into a very fine colt, so this does say something for Pisciteli. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who rode him to his fourth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In that race, he set the pace for about seven furlongs before giving up the lead to Noble's Promise. However, he did manage to come back at the latter, finishing a head behind him and only a length behind victorious Vale of York. If he can race that well on dirt, he could very well win this race.
5. William's Kitten
This is one colt who could very well run better than his odds. In his first race, he ran poorly, finishing seventh in a five-furlong turf maiden race at Churchill Downs. However, he followed that up with a win in a one-mile turf maiden race at Ellis Park. That race was run on a track labeled good. He then ran in a $25,000 one-mile turf allowance race at Ruidoso Downs. He finished third. Following this, he stepped up to a stakes race, the $150,000 Sunday Silence Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, down at Louisiana Downs. This was perhaps his most fascinating race, to me that is, as the race was rained off the turf, and William's Kitten sat last for much of the race before coming on with a six wide run to win the race by 4 3/4 lengths. Tried on a synthetic track, he ran fifth in the grade II Grey Stakes up at Woodbine, beaten two lengths at a-mile-and-a-sixteenth, and then finished eighth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 78-1. However, he was wide on the final turn and was only beaten by six-and-a-half lengths. Then, three weeks later, he finished second to the nice colt Super Saver in the grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, beaten five lengths. Behind him was Thiskyhasnolimit, winner of the Iroquis Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. So what does this tell us? William's Kitten seems to be able to run impressively on real dirt. So we'll see what he does on Saturday.
6. Winslow Homer
His biggest win thus far has come in an allowance race on November 20th of last year. This would mean just about nothing, except that he won by 12 1/2 lengths. Any young horse who wins any race by that much should be watched. He also gets into the race with only 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez, who is certainly one of the best jockeys around. He has won two of three races, and worked a half mile in :50.30 at Palm Meadows on January 18th. He seems ready to run a big one.
7. Wild Lime
Another horse I was unable to locate any information on. All I know is that he will be ridden by J. Lezcano.
8. Aikenite
This colt has the possibility to run huge. His career so far has consisted of a maiden race at Saratoga, which he won, a nice third in the grade I Hopeful Stakes in only his second start, a second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland, a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, beaten 2 3/4 lengths, and as far as I know, nothing further. So he is still looking for his first stakes win, but he already has two grade I placings and a very nice fifth in the Breeders' Cup. It is safe to say that he has run well on dirt and synthetics, and I expect him to run a very nice race on Saturday.
9. Jackson Bend
So far, he appears to be the best horse in the race. However, he has drawn post position nine, which is certainly not the greatest post position for him. Considering that he likes to run fairly close to the pace, his jockey, Jeremy Rose, may have to send him early to keep him from being caught wide entering the turn. He worked a bullet five furlongs at Palm Meadows, turning in a :59.30. He appears to be ready to roll, but strange things can happen when a three year old makes his debut. He will be carrying 120 pounds, two less than highweight Homeboykris.
And so, now that I have thoroughly investigated the details of every horse in the race, (and in the cases of Wild Lime, Litigation Risk, and Thank U Philippe, everything I know) I can select my picks for the race. The following list is the order in which I believe they will finish. To date, I have never succeeded in doing this, that is, selecting the exact order of finish for a race, but I have come close a couple of times. Maybe Saturday will be the day.
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homeboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Pisciteli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
This race could go many different ways. It is very possible that Winslow Homer could be a much better horse than I think, just as it's very possible that he could finish last. Litigation Risk, whom I have selected to finish last, could very well turn into the next Secretariat. Nobody knows at this point. Homeboykris could run a huge race and win by twenty lengths, or he could finish last. Jackson Bend could very well be caught three or four wide. We'll find out tomorrow.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
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