The post parade has been completed. Norman Asbjornson struck me as being extremely calm, as did Mucho Macho Man. Astrology was on his toes, as was Concealed Identity. No one looked particularly upset.
Now it is post time. Who will win the 136th Preakness Stakes? We will know in just a few moments.
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Norman Asbjornson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Norman Asbjornson. Show all posts
Saturday, May 21, 2011
PREAKNESS STAKES ANALYSIS AND PICKS
Tomorrow, the historic second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), will be run at Pimlico Race Course in Maryland. A full field of twelve has turned out for the 1 3/16th mile event, which is frequently more of a champion-defining race than the more heralded Kentucky Derby. The last ten winners of the Preakness, beginning with Point Given in 2001, have gone on to be voted Eclipse champion three-year-old.
As I did when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, I shall divide all of the starters into three categories, based on how well I like their chances. From there, I shall make my picks.
Here we go!
Unlikely Contenders
NORMAN ASBJORNSON – Finished fourth in the Wood Memorial without any real excuse. He seems to run his best races when he is on or near the lead, but doesn’t seem to have the speed to be up front in a race like this. Perhaps if he gets a perfect trip, he could rally to crack the superfecta, but I don’t really think it will happen. He is game, though.
KING CONGIE – Although he’s proven to be a very good horse on turf and synthetics – he was beaten a head in the grade I Blue Grass Stakes – his two performances on dirt yielded fourth- and eighth-place finishes by a combined total of 31 ½ lengths. He has also shown a tendency to drift outward in the stretch. A fine colt, but I doubt that he’ll take to the dirt.
ISN’T HE PERFECT – His three attempts at stakes company have yielded a pair of fifths and a sixth-place finish. He does seem to be improving, and has been pointed toward this race, but I have the suspicion that he just isn’t fast enough to contend in a race of this caliber. He does have experience, though – he’s made twelve starts so far, including six just this year.
FLASHPOINT – One of only three horses in this race to have earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure – the other two being Animal Kingdom and Sway Away – Flashpoint earned his big figure in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). Although obviously extremely talented, his one try in a route race yielded a fourth-place finish behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby. If he can get to the lead and set a moderate pace, he could be around at the finish, but with his pedigree I can’t see him succeeding at a mile and three-sixteenths.
Contenders
ASTROLOGY – In seven starts, this fine colt has never finished worse than third. Winner of the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) last fall, Astrology had minor surgery during the winter to correct an entrapped epiglottis, which probably explains why he didn’t make his 2011 debut until March 27th, when he ran second in the rich Sunland Derby (gr. III). Last time out, he finished a late-running second to Adios Charlie in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II), a strong performance that become stronger when Adios Charlie came back to be beaten a head in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) last Saturday. Under Mike Smith, Astrology should be able to secure a decent, ground-saving trip from the rail and may very well be around at the finish.
CONCEALED IDENTITY - Concealed Identity may offer some value with morning line odds of 30-1. A Maryland-bred, all eight of his starts have come in Maryland, the last two being at Pimlico. Last time out, he defeated some fine horses in Ruler On Ice and J W Blue in the Federico Tesio Stakes. Trained by Edmund Gaudet -- who won the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in 1971 -- I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see Concealed Identity finish in the superfecta. Interestingly, he only has one eye.
SHACKLEFORD - Shackleford turned in the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby, setting the pace and leading by a length passing the eighth pole before tiring late to finish fourth. He is unlikely to secure as easy a lead this time around, not with the likes of Flashpoint and Dance City also in the race. But he has continued to train well since the Derby and should be able to work out an excellent trip from gate five, perhaps stalking Flashpoint early on.
SWAY AWAY - As mentioned above, this colt has earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure, that being the 101 he recorded when finishing a close second to The Factor in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park. But two attempts in route races since then have proven unsuccessful, as he had finished sixth in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). Although he had excuses in both races, I feel that he is most effective as a late-running sprinter, despite his pedigree. But if a quick pace sets up in front of him, expect to see him charging home strongly in the homestretch.
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - Winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Midnight Interlude showed absolutely nothing in the Kentucky Derby while finishing sixteenth. But a rider switch to Martin Garcia and a sharp workout signal that he may be ready to run an improved race. I would not be surprised if he is much closer to the lead tomorrow than usual -- perhaps even on the lead if he breaks well. Time will tell if he can stay the distance, but don't count him out entirely. After all, trainer Bob Baffert has won this race five times.
MR. COMMONS - Like Dance City, Mr. Commons has a lot to overcome. Trained by John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame, the colt turned in two promising efforts under vastly different circumstances earlier this year -- breaking his maiden sprinting on turf and winning an allowance race going a mile on dirt. Last time out, he finished a decent third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude. He doesn't have to improve a whole lot to be a contender here, but he has drawn gate fourteen. Seeing that his running style is to sit within a length or two of the early lead, I can't see him not getting caught wide on the first turn. Under the circumstances, I can't see him winning, although he has been training very well.
Top Contenders
DANCE CITY - This lightly raced colt has shown a great deal of talent and courage in his four starts. After finishing second to eventual Wood Memorial runner-up Arthur's Tale in a maiden special weight, Dance City broke his maiden by a length over a sloppy track at Gulfstream. He then defeated his highly-regarded stable mate Cal Nation in an allowance race by a desperate nose, then went on to finish a good third to Archarcharch and Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro in the Arkansas Derby after chasing a fast pace. Several questions still remain to be answered -- can his pedigree carry him a mile and three-sixteenths? Can he avoid getting sucked into an intense speed duel with Flashpoint and Shackleford? He'll have to run the race of his life to hit the board here, but he may just be capable of doing just that.
MUCHO MACHO MAN - Mucho Macho Man has been the epitome of consistency during his lengthy nine-race career. He has never finished worse than fourth, and has finished in the top three eight times. As a juvenile, he finished second twice to To Honor and Serve in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). This year, he has won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and finished third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). In the Kentucky Derby. he had no real excuse, finishing a late-running third after a trouble-free trip. But in my opinion, he is still improving and will run his best race tomorrow. A June foal, he doesn't actually turn three-years-old until after the Belmont Stakes, and has taken some time to grow into his enormous 17-hand frame. But if I am correct, and he is only now reaching his best, he can win the Preakness tomorrow.
DIALED IN - The beaten Kentucky Derby favorite never had a chance in Louisville. Chasing one of the slowest paces in many, many years, his late run was severely compromised. But he was closing -- he closed his final half-mile in about :47 seconds, a brilliant time indeed. With a much faster pace likely tomorrow, I expect to see him flying down the homestretch with ground-devouring strides. Interestingly, he is racing for much more money than any of the other starters in this race. Because he won the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby earlier this year, he has a chance at winning the Preakness 5.5 bonus, the $5,500,000 bonus that is to be awarded to any horse that can win either the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, El Camino Real Derby and Santa Anita Derby, or the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby -- as well as the Preakness.
ANIMAL KINGDOM - Upset winner of the Kentucky Derby when making his first start on dirt, Animal Kingdom powered away from his rival in the Derby when winning by 2 3/4 lengths. It was the best race of his life, and a repeat of that performance would give him every chance at winning this race. But will he repeat the performance? That is one of the main questions that is being asked when handicapping the Preakness. He has been training well since his Derby victory, and I would not be surprised to see him run a great race, but I'm worried that he will catch a wide trip from gate eleven. He really got a near-perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Now, before I post my picks, allow me to offer a disclaimer. No matter who I select to win the Preakness, I always cheer for the Kentucky Derby winner. No matter what. Even in 2009, when I was a huge fan of Rachel Alexandra and wanted her to become the first filly since 1924 to win the Preakness, I was still cheering for Mine That Bird to catch her in deep stretch, simply because I would love to see a Triple Crown winner. And if the Derby winner doesn't win the Preakness, then there's no shot, right?
So basically, what I'm saying is that although I'm not going to pick Animal Kingdom to win the Preakness, I will be cheering him on.
Okay. . . that said, let's get on to my selections!
First off, I shall make my traditional "Random Picks", where I randomly select names from a hat to see how good a handicapper my hat is.
My hat has selected:
1 Isn't He Perfect
2 Animal Kingdom
3 King Congie
4 Concealed Identity
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Dialed In
8 Mucho Macho Man
9 Sway Away
10 Dance City
11 Flashpoint
12 Astrology
13 Mr. Commons
14 Norman Asbjornson
As usual, the hat apparently knows something that I don't. :)
Here also are the usual "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" selections:
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Shackleford
4 Dance City
5 Astrology (Dead-heat with King Congie, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 King Congie (Dead-heat with Astrology, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 Sway Away (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Mr. Commons)
5 Mr. Commons (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Sway Away)
9 Dialed In
10 Norman Asbjornson
11 Concealed Identity
12 Isn't He Perfect (Dead-heat with Flashpoint)
13 Flashpoint (Dead-heat with Isn't He Perfect)
14 Midnight Interlude
As usual, there are numerous dead-heats on this list -- a dead-heat occurring whenever two horses earned equal Beyer speed figures in their previous starts.
Okay, now it's time for my true picks. I have given this matter a lot of thought, and finally settled on these selections:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Dance City
4 Dialed In
5 Shackleford
6 Mr. Commons
7 Midnight Interlude
8 Astrology
9 Concealed Identity
10 King Congie
11 Sway Away
12 Norman Asbjornson
13 Flashpoint
14 Isn't He Perfect
I have this feeling that we have not seen the best of Mucho Macho Man, and that tomorrow is the day that he steps up and becomes the leader of the three-year-old division with a decisive victory in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Despite the fact that Dance City, Flashpoint, and Shackleford have all shown a great deal of speed in the past, I don't think that the pace will be all that fast. As a matter of fact, I don't see any of those three on the lead tomorrow. I believe that Martin Garcia will ask Midnight Interlude to go as soon as the gates open, and Midnight Interlude will find himself on the front end clear by a length through moderate fractions -- perhaps a :47 flat half-mile. From gate nine, Mucho Macho Man should be able to work out a good stalking position in fourth or fifth, not too far off of the early lead. From there, I think he will pounce on the far turn and hold off a charging Animal Kingdom for the victory.
Dialed In should be much closer in the stretch tomorrow than he was in the Derby, but since I don't see the early pace as being all that fast, I also can't see him getting past my top three. Dance City may indeed have distance limitations, but of the front runners I like him best. The Arkansas Derby was a very solid race -- with runner-up Nehro coming back to run second in the Derby and fifth-place finish Alternation winning the Peter Pan Stakes last Saturday -- and I feel that he may be very tough to pass in the homestretch.
As for Shackleford, despite the fact that he has been training well, I believe that his Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby performances were due more to perfect trips and pace scenarios more than anything else. Perhaps I'm wrong -- I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he took the lead and held off everyone to win this race -- but I believe that the pace won't set up for him today.
J.R., as usual, sees everything differently.
He sees Dance City, Shackleford, Flashpoint, and Midnight Interlude all getting involved him a tremendous speed duel for the early lead, where they run a :45-and-change half mile fraction. He predicts a complete and total pace meltdown, where the above-mentioned front runners tire badly in the homestretch and the horses sitting in mid-pack flatten out late.
He sees Astrology grinding past everyone to win.
Yes, J.R. is confident that Astrology -- making his third start off of a lengthy layoff -- will receive a perfect, ground-saving trip under Mike Smith that will enable the colt to run the race of his life and pull off a shocking upset. For second, he likes Dialed In. Norman Asbjornson and Concealed Identity are his "Longshots to Crack the Superfecta."
His complete selections are:
1 Astrology
2 Dialed In
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Norman Asbjorson
5 Concealed Identity
6 Mucho Macho Man
7 King Congie
8 Shackleford
9 Sway Away
10 Midnight Interlude
11 Dance City
12 Mr. Commons
13 Isn't He Perfect
14 Flashpoint
One final note before I conclude this post -- I am very fond of Mr. Commons, and would love to see John Shirreffs win a Preakness. Mr. Commons may actually be talented enough to win this race. But I'm afraid that from gate fourteen, I can't see the colt getting a good enough trip.
I shall post live updates here on my blog as the major undercard races at Pimlico are run tomorrow afternoon. In the meantime, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
As I did when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, I shall divide all of the starters into three categories, based on how well I like their chances. From there, I shall make my picks.
Here we go!
Unlikely Contenders
NORMAN ASBJORNSON – Finished fourth in the Wood Memorial without any real excuse. He seems to run his best races when he is on or near the lead, but doesn’t seem to have the speed to be up front in a race like this. Perhaps if he gets a perfect trip, he could rally to crack the superfecta, but I don’t really think it will happen. He is game, though.
KING CONGIE – Although he’s proven to be a very good horse on turf and synthetics – he was beaten a head in the grade I Blue Grass Stakes – his two performances on dirt yielded fourth- and eighth-place finishes by a combined total of 31 ½ lengths. He has also shown a tendency to drift outward in the stretch. A fine colt, but I doubt that he’ll take to the dirt.
ISN’T HE PERFECT – His three attempts at stakes company have yielded a pair of fifths and a sixth-place finish. He does seem to be improving, and has been pointed toward this race, but I have the suspicion that he just isn’t fast enough to contend in a race of this caliber. He does have experience, though – he’s made twelve starts so far, including six just this year.
FLASHPOINT – One of only three horses in this race to have earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure – the other two being Animal Kingdom and Sway Away – Flashpoint earned his big figure in the seven-furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). Although obviously extremely talented, his one try in a route race yielded a fourth-place finish behind Dialed In in the Florida Derby. If he can get to the lead and set a moderate pace, he could be around at the finish, but with his pedigree I can’t see him succeeding at a mile and three-sixteenths.
Contenders
ASTROLOGY – In seven starts, this fine colt has never finished worse than third. Winner of the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) last fall, Astrology had minor surgery during the winter to correct an entrapped epiglottis, which probably explains why he didn’t make his 2011 debut until March 27th, when he ran second in the rich Sunland Derby (gr. III). Last time out, he finished a late-running second to Adios Charlie in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II), a strong performance that become stronger when Adios Charlie came back to be beaten a head in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) last Saturday. Under Mike Smith, Astrology should be able to secure a decent, ground-saving trip from the rail and may very well be around at the finish.
CONCEALED IDENTITY - Concealed Identity may offer some value with morning line odds of 30-1. A Maryland-bred, all eight of his starts have come in Maryland, the last two being at Pimlico. Last time out, he defeated some fine horses in Ruler On Ice and J W Blue in the Federico Tesio Stakes. Trained by Edmund Gaudet -- who won the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes in 1971 -- I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see Concealed Identity finish in the superfecta. Interestingly, he only has one eye.
SHACKLEFORD - Shackleford turned in the race of his life in the Kentucky Derby, setting the pace and leading by a length passing the eighth pole before tiring late to finish fourth. He is unlikely to secure as easy a lead this time around, not with the likes of Flashpoint and Dance City also in the race. But he has continued to train well since the Derby and should be able to work out an excellent trip from gate five, perhaps stalking Flashpoint early on.
SWAY AWAY - As mentioned above, this colt has earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure, that being the 101 he recorded when finishing a close second to The Factor in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park. But two attempts in route races since then have proven unsuccessful, as he had finished sixth in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. I). Although he had excuses in both races, I feel that he is most effective as a late-running sprinter, despite his pedigree. But if a quick pace sets up in front of him, expect to see him charging home strongly in the homestretch.
MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE - Winner of the Santa Anita Derby, Midnight Interlude showed absolutely nothing in the Kentucky Derby while finishing sixteenth. But a rider switch to Martin Garcia and a sharp workout signal that he may be ready to run an improved race. I would not be surprised if he is much closer to the lead tomorrow than usual -- perhaps even on the lead if he breaks well. Time will tell if he can stay the distance, but don't count him out entirely. After all, trainer Bob Baffert has won this race five times.
MR. COMMONS - Like Dance City, Mr. Commons has a lot to overcome. Trained by John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame, the colt turned in two promising efforts under vastly different circumstances earlier this year -- breaking his maiden sprinting on turf and winning an allowance race going a mile on dirt. Last time out, he finished a decent third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude. He doesn't have to improve a whole lot to be a contender here, but he has drawn gate fourteen. Seeing that his running style is to sit within a length or two of the early lead, I can't see him not getting caught wide on the first turn. Under the circumstances, I can't see him winning, although he has been training very well.
Top Contenders
DANCE CITY - This lightly raced colt has shown a great deal of talent and courage in his four starts. After finishing second to eventual Wood Memorial runner-up Arthur's Tale in a maiden special weight, Dance City broke his maiden by a length over a sloppy track at Gulfstream. He then defeated his highly-regarded stable mate Cal Nation in an allowance race by a desperate nose, then went on to finish a good third to Archarcharch and Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro in the Arkansas Derby after chasing a fast pace. Several questions still remain to be answered -- can his pedigree carry him a mile and three-sixteenths? Can he avoid getting sucked into an intense speed duel with Flashpoint and Shackleford? He'll have to run the race of his life to hit the board here, but he may just be capable of doing just that.
MUCHO MACHO MAN - Mucho Macho Man has been the epitome of consistency during his lengthy nine-race career. He has never finished worse than fourth, and has finished in the top three eight times. As a juvenile, he finished second twice to To Honor and Serve in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and the Remsen Stakes (gr. II). This year, he has won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and finished third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). In the Kentucky Derby. he had no real excuse, finishing a late-running third after a trouble-free trip. But in my opinion, he is still improving and will run his best race tomorrow. A June foal, he doesn't actually turn three-years-old until after the Belmont Stakes, and has taken some time to grow into his enormous 17-hand frame. But if I am correct, and he is only now reaching his best, he can win the Preakness tomorrow.
DIALED IN - The beaten Kentucky Derby favorite never had a chance in Louisville. Chasing one of the slowest paces in many, many years, his late run was severely compromised. But he was closing -- he closed his final half-mile in about :47 seconds, a brilliant time indeed. With a much faster pace likely tomorrow, I expect to see him flying down the homestretch with ground-devouring strides. Interestingly, he is racing for much more money than any of the other starters in this race. Because he won the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby earlier this year, he has a chance at winning the Preakness 5.5 bonus, the $5,500,000 bonus that is to be awarded to any horse that can win either the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, El Camino Real Derby and Santa Anita Derby, or the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby -- as well as the Preakness.
ANIMAL KINGDOM - Upset winner of the Kentucky Derby when making his first start on dirt, Animal Kingdom powered away from his rival in the Derby when winning by 2 3/4 lengths. It was the best race of his life, and a repeat of that performance would give him every chance at winning this race. But will he repeat the performance? That is one of the main questions that is being asked when handicapping the Preakness. He has been training well since his Derby victory, and I would not be surprised to see him run a great race, but I'm worried that he will catch a wide trip from gate eleven. He really got a near-perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby.
Now, before I post my picks, allow me to offer a disclaimer. No matter who I select to win the Preakness, I always cheer for the Kentucky Derby winner. No matter what. Even in 2009, when I was a huge fan of Rachel Alexandra and wanted her to become the first filly since 1924 to win the Preakness, I was still cheering for Mine That Bird to catch her in deep stretch, simply because I would love to see a Triple Crown winner. And if the Derby winner doesn't win the Preakness, then there's no shot, right?
So basically, what I'm saying is that although I'm not going to pick Animal Kingdom to win the Preakness, I will be cheering him on.
Okay. . . that said, let's get on to my selections!
First off, I shall make my traditional "Random Picks", where I randomly select names from a hat to see how good a handicapper my hat is.
My hat has selected:
1 Isn't He Perfect
2 Animal Kingdom
3 King Congie
4 Concealed Identity
5 Shackleford
6 Midnight Interlude
7 Dialed In
8 Mucho Macho Man
9 Sway Away
10 Dance City
11 Flashpoint
12 Astrology
13 Mr. Commons
14 Norman Asbjornson
As usual, the hat apparently knows something that I don't. :)
Here also are the usual "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" selections:
1 Animal Kingdom
2 Mucho Macho Man
3 Shackleford
4 Dance City
5 Astrology (Dead-heat with King Congie, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 King Congie (Dead-heat with Astrology, Sway Away, and Mr. Commons)
5 Sway Away (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Mr. Commons)
5 Mr. Commons (Dead-heat with Astrology, King Congie, and Sway Away)
9 Dialed In
10 Norman Asbjornson
11 Concealed Identity
12 Isn't He Perfect (Dead-heat with Flashpoint)
13 Flashpoint (Dead-heat with Isn't He Perfect)
14 Midnight Interlude
As usual, there are numerous dead-heats on this list -- a dead-heat occurring whenever two horses earned equal Beyer speed figures in their previous starts.
Okay, now it's time for my true picks. I have given this matter a lot of thought, and finally settled on these selections:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Dance City
4 Dialed In
5 Shackleford
6 Mr. Commons
7 Midnight Interlude
8 Astrology
9 Concealed Identity
10 King Congie
11 Sway Away
12 Norman Asbjornson
13 Flashpoint
14 Isn't He Perfect
I have this feeling that we have not seen the best of Mucho Macho Man, and that tomorrow is the day that he steps up and becomes the leader of the three-year-old division with a decisive victory in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Despite the fact that Dance City, Flashpoint, and Shackleford have all shown a great deal of speed in the past, I don't think that the pace will be all that fast. As a matter of fact, I don't see any of those three on the lead tomorrow. I believe that Martin Garcia will ask Midnight Interlude to go as soon as the gates open, and Midnight Interlude will find himself on the front end clear by a length through moderate fractions -- perhaps a :47 flat half-mile. From gate nine, Mucho Macho Man should be able to work out a good stalking position in fourth or fifth, not too far off of the early lead. From there, I think he will pounce on the far turn and hold off a charging Animal Kingdom for the victory.
Dialed In should be much closer in the stretch tomorrow than he was in the Derby, but since I don't see the early pace as being all that fast, I also can't see him getting past my top three. Dance City may indeed have distance limitations, but of the front runners I like him best. The Arkansas Derby was a very solid race -- with runner-up Nehro coming back to run second in the Derby and fifth-place finish Alternation winning the Peter Pan Stakes last Saturday -- and I feel that he may be very tough to pass in the homestretch.
As for Shackleford, despite the fact that he has been training well, I believe that his Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby performances were due more to perfect trips and pace scenarios more than anything else. Perhaps I'm wrong -- I wouldn't be entirely shocked if he took the lead and held off everyone to win this race -- but I believe that the pace won't set up for him today.
J.R., as usual, sees everything differently.
He sees Dance City, Shackleford, Flashpoint, and Midnight Interlude all getting involved him a tremendous speed duel for the early lead, where they run a :45-and-change half mile fraction. He predicts a complete and total pace meltdown, where the above-mentioned front runners tire badly in the homestretch and the horses sitting in mid-pack flatten out late.
He sees Astrology grinding past everyone to win.
Yes, J.R. is confident that Astrology -- making his third start off of a lengthy layoff -- will receive a perfect, ground-saving trip under Mike Smith that will enable the colt to run the race of his life and pull off a shocking upset. For second, he likes Dialed In. Norman Asbjornson and Concealed Identity are his "Longshots to Crack the Superfecta."
His complete selections are:
1 Astrology
2 Dialed In
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Norman Asbjorson
5 Concealed Identity
6 Mucho Macho Man
7 King Congie
8 Shackleford
9 Sway Away
10 Midnight Interlude
11 Dance City
12 Mr. Commons
13 Isn't He Perfect
14 Flashpoint
One final note before I conclude this post -- I am very fond of Mr. Commons, and would love to see John Shirreffs win a Preakness. Mr. Commons may actually be talented enough to win this race. But I'm afraid that from gate fourteen, I can't see the colt getting a good enough trip.
I shall post live updates here on my blog as the major undercard races at Pimlico are run tomorrow afternoon. In the meantime, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Saturday, April 09, 2011
TOBY'S CORNER WINS THE WOOD MEMORIAL!
In a tremendously shocking upset at Aqueduct this afternoon, Toby's Corner rallied furiously in between horses to defeat Arthur's Tale and Uncle Mo by a neck.
Ridden by Eddie Castro, Toby's Corner was well off of the early pace set by Uncle Mo, the 1-20 favorite who broke very quickly. Uncle Mo set easy fractions under John Velazquez, relaxing very well in the early going. Duca was pressing him mildly on the outside, but not much at all. The early fractions were :23.49 and :47.98.
Turning for home Uncle Mo appeared to be ready to kick away from the field and win the race by ten lengths, but when John Velazquez asked him for his run, Uncle Mo couldn't find enough. Instead, Arthur's Tale shot to the lead on the far outside at 20-1. He appeared to be on his way to victory, but Toby's Corner was rallying furiously in between horses to win the race in 1:49.93.
Arthur's Tale finished second, about a length clear of Uncle Mo. Norman Asbjornson finished fourth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Eddie Castro, Toby's Corner was well off of the early pace set by Uncle Mo, the 1-20 favorite who broke very quickly. Uncle Mo set easy fractions under John Velazquez, relaxing very well in the early going. Duca was pressing him mildly on the outside, but not much at all. The early fractions were :23.49 and :47.98.
Turning for home Uncle Mo appeared to be ready to kick away from the field and win the race by ten lengths, but when John Velazquez asked him for his run, Uncle Mo couldn't find enough. Instead, Arthur's Tale shot to the lead on the far outside at 20-1. He appeared to be on his way to victory, but Toby's Corner was rallying furiously in between horses to win the race in 1:49.93.
Arthur's Tale finished second, about a length clear of Uncle Mo. Norman Asbjornson finished fourth.
-Keelerman
WOOD MEMORIAL DAY ANALYSIS
It's a big day today at Aqueduct racetrack in New York, for today is the day of the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial (gr. I). It's a fabulous card, with four graded stakes races including the Carter Handicap (gr. I) for older horses. Here are my thoughts on the four races:
Comely Stakes (gr. III)
3yo Fillies, One Mile on the Main Track.
This race has drawn a fascinating field of seven sophomore fillies, led by the morning line favorite Ava K. The daughter of Dixie Union has won all three of her starts, the last being the one-mile and seventy yards Proud Puppy Stakes, which she won by three lengths. However, all of her victories have come in state-restricted races, and this is a major step up in class.
If Ava K. should falter, then expect Her Smile to be right there at the finish. The filly has made six start, winning three while placing twice. Last time out, she ran a close third in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs behind Wyomia and Devilish Lady. It was a very strong performance, and I believe that she is more than capable of winning this race.
R Holiday Mood is another logical contender based off of two consecutive victories. She is a stakes winner, having won the Out Ruled Stakes last time out, and has proven to be very gutsy indeed. Both of her wins have come by a neck. If she can secure a fairly easy lead, expect her to be tough to catch in the stretch.
My picks:
1 Her Smile
2 Ava K.
3 R Holiday Mood
Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III)
3yo, 7 Furlongs on the Main Track
I believe that this is J J's Lucky Train's race. The colt has proven to be very consistent, for he has finished worse than second only once. After finishing second in both the Count Fleet and Whirlaway Stakes, he defeated Bandbox by a neck in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. Bandbox came back to impressively win the Private Terms Stakes, and finishing third in the Count Fleet Stakes was Pants On Fire, who won the Louisiana Derby two starts later. So J J's Lucky Train has certainly been competing against some very good company!
Vengeful Wildcat and Buffum are two other obvious contenders. Vengeful Wildcat won the Tyro Stakes last year and finished second in the grade III Sapling Stakes on September 4th. He was given a lengthy break after that, returning to the races on March 5th to run a decent third in the Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes going six furlongs at Aqueduct.
Buffum broke his maiden in a sharp performance at Belmont Park in October last year, but has disappointed in two subsequent stakes tries. Seven furlongs may be his best distance, and I expect to see him perform better today.
Smoke It Right is undefeated in four starts, but all have come against lesser competition. Last time out, he won the six furlong Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He has a lot of talent, but I'm not sure if he's ready to compete at this level.
My picks:
1 J J's Lucky Train
2 Vengeful Wildcat
3 Smoke It Right
Carter Handicap (gr. I)
3yo+, 7 Furlongs on the Main Track
Four scratches, including the withdrawal of favored Calibrachoa, have left the field for the prestigious grade I sprint race with only eight runners. Apriority will likely be sent off as the favorite. Although he has never competed in a graded stakes race, he easily won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race last time out at Gulfstream Park, missing the track record by just .03 seconds. Although this is a major step up in class, I believe that he will be a factor in the stretch.
Morning Line is another strong contender. Winner of the Hal's Hope Stakes earlier this year, he ran second in the grade I Donn Handicap (gr. I) last time out and may appreciate the shorter distance of today's race.
I also really like Yawanna Twist's chances. The colt finished second in the Illinois Derby last year before running a huge fourth in the Preakness Stakes. An extremely length break followed, as he did not race again in February of this year, when he ran in a seven furlong allowance optional claiming race at Aqueduct. He won impressively by 1 1/2 lengths in a sharp 1:21.92. A strong second in the nine furlong Kings Point Stakes sets him up for today's race. I believe that he will rally late for a top three finish.
My picks:
1 Apriority
2 Morning Line
3 Yawanna Twist
Wood Memorial (gr. I)
3yo, Nine Furlongs on the Main Track
This is Uncle Mo's race to lose. The heavy favorite for the Kentucky Derby next month, he is undefeated in four starts. He's got tactical speed. He's the two-year-old champion. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. If he loses, it would be a simply tremendous upset.
None of the others contenders can match his raw talent. None of them have ever earned a Beyer speed figure as good as Uncle Mo's lowest figure. The morning line second choice is coming off of a third-place finish in a grade III stakes race. There are some quality horses lined up to face the champion, but to be perfectly honest, I would be surprised if Uncle Mo doesn't win in a hand ride by ten lengths.
For second? I like Toby's Corner, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes and third in the Gotham (gr. III). He will be wearing blinkers today and should be coming strongly late. Norman Asbjornson put up a game fight at huge odds in the Gotham, finishing second behind Stay Thirsty, but time will tell if he can repeat that performance.
Starship Caesar finished last in the Gotham, but his previous performances merit at least a brief glance by handicappers playing the superfecta. If he rebounds, he could earn a sizable piece of the purse.
My picks:
1 Uncle Mo
2 Toby's Corner
3 Norman Asbjornson
4 Starship Caesar
5 Arthur's Tale
6 Duca
7 Isn't He Perfect
8 Preachintothedevil
9 Son of Posse
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Uncle Mo
2 Starship Caesar
3 Toby's Corner
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Norman Asbjornson
6 Duca
7 Preachintothedevil
8 Isn't He Perfect
9 Son of Posse
J.R. picked Starship Caesar to win the Gotham Stakes last month, and isn't about to drop him after one poor performance. He is confident that the gelding will come on late to be "best of the rest", but feels that Uncle Mo is simply unbeatable here.
I will be posting the results of these race as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Comely Stakes (gr. III)
3yo Fillies, One Mile on the Main Track.
This race has drawn a fascinating field of seven sophomore fillies, led by the morning line favorite Ava K. The daughter of Dixie Union has won all three of her starts, the last being the one-mile and seventy yards Proud Puppy Stakes, which she won by three lengths. However, all of her victories have come in state-restricted races, and this is a major step up in class.
If Ava K. should falter, then expect Her Smile to be right there at the finish. The filly has made six start, winning three while placing twice. Last time out, she ran a close third in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs behind Wyomia and Devilish Lady. It was a very strong performance, and I believe that she is more than capable of winning this race.
R Holiday Mood is another logical contender based off of two consecutive victories. She is a stakes winner, having won the Out Ruled Stakes last time out, and has proven to be very gutsy indeed. Both of her wins have come by a neck. If she can secure a fairly easy lead, expect her to be tough to catch in the stretch.
My picks:
1 Her Smile
2 Ava K.
3 R Holiday Mood
Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III)
3yo, 7 Furlongs on the Main Track
I believe that this is J J's Lucky Train's race. The colt has proven to be very consistent, for he has finished worse than second only once. After finishing second in both the Count Fleet and Whirlaway Stakes, he defeated Bandbox by a neck in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. Bandbox came back to impressively win the Private Terms Stakes, and finishing third in the Count Fleet Stakes was Pants On Fire, who won the Louisiana Derby two starts later. So J J's Lucky Train has certainly been competing against some very good company!
Vengeful Wildcat and Buffum are two other obvious contenders. Vengeful Wildcat won the Tyro Stakes last year and finished second in the grade III Sapling Stakes on September 4th. He was given a lengthy break after that, returning to the races on March 5th to run a decent third in the Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes going six furlongs at Aqueduct.
Buffum broke his maiden in a sharp performance at Belmont Park in October last year, but has disappointed in two subsequent stakes tries. Seven furlongs may be his best distance, and I expect to see him perform better today.
Smoke It Right is undefeated in four starts, but all have come against lesser competition. Last time out, he won the six furlong Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He has a lot of talent, but I'm not sure if he's ready to compete at this level.
My picks:
1 J J's Lucky Train
2 Vengeful Wildcat
3 Smoke It Right
Carter Handicap (gr. I)
3yo+, 7 Furlongs on the Main Track
Four scratches, including the withdrawal of favored Calibrachoa, have left the field for the prestigious grade I sprint race with only eight runners. Apriority will likely be sent off as the favorite. Although he has never competed in a graded stakes race, he easily won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race last time out at Gulfstream Park, missing the track record by just .03 seconds. Although this is a major step up in class, I believe that he will be a factor in the stretch.
Morning Line is another strong contender. Winner of the Hal's Hope Stakes earlier this year, he ran second in the grade I Donn Handicap (gr. I) last time out and may appreciate the shorter distance of today's race.
I also really like Yawanna Twist's chances. The colt finished second in the Illinois Derby last year before running a huge fourth in the Preakness Stakes. An extremely length break followed, as he did not race again in February of this year, when he ran in a seven furlong allowance optional claiming race at Aqueduct. He won impressively by 1 1/2 lengths in a sharp 1:21.92. A strong second in the nine furlong Kings Point Stakes sets him up for today's race. I believe that he will rally late for a top three finish.
My picks:
1 Apriority
2 Morning Line
3 Yawanna Twist
Wood Memorial (gr. I)
3yo, Nine Furlongs on the Main Track
This is Uncle Mo's race to lose. The heavy favorite for the Kentucky Derby next month, he is undefeated in four starts. He's got tactical speed. He's the two-year-old champion. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. If he loses, it would be a simply tremendous upset.
None of the others contenders can match his raw talent. None of them have ever earned a Beyer speed figure as good as Uncle Mo's lowest figure. The morning line second choice is coming off of a third-place finish in a grade III stakes race. There are some quality horses lined up to face the champion, but to be perfectly honest, I would be surprised if Uncle Mo doesn't win in a hand ride by ten lengths.
For second? I like Toby's Corner, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes and third in the Gotham (gr. III). He will be wearing blinkers today and should be coming strongly late. Norman Asbjornson put up a game fight at huge odds in the Gotham, finishing second behind Stay Thirsty, but time will tell if he can repeat that performance.
Starship Caesar finished last in the Gotham, but his previous performances merit at least a brief glance by handicappers playing the superfecta. If he rebounds, he could earn a sizable piece of the purse.
My picks:
1 Uncle Mo
2 Toby's Corner
3 Norman Asbjornson
4 Starship Caesar
5 Arthur's Tale
6 Duca
7 Isn't He Perfect
8 Preachintothedevil
9 Son of Posse
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Uncle Mo
2 Starship Caesar
3 Toby's Corner
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Norman Asbjornson
6 Duca
7 Preachintothedevil
8 Isn't He Perfect
9 Son of Posse
J.R. picked Starship Caesar to win the Gotham Stakes last month, and isn't about to drop him after one poor performance. He is confident that the gelding will come on late to be "best of the rest", but feels that Uncle Mo is simply unbeatable here.
I will be posting the results of these race as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Saturday, March 05, 2011
STAY THIRSTY WINS THE GOTHAM STAKES!
It did not look good for Stay Thirsty. Heavily favored in the grade III Gotham Stakes, he had been caught wide on both turns and it looked like he was not going to be able to get past the leaders at the top of the stretch. But Stay Thirsty kept grinding away, and took off inside the final sixteenth of a mile under Ramon Dominguez to win the Gotham by three lengths.
The Fed Eased set the early pace, with 45-1 shot Norman Asbjornson tracking him in second. They were followed by Starship Caesar along the rail in third and Stay Thirsty on the far outside in fourth. Through fractions of :24.79 and :49.18 they continued in this order. Approaching the far turn Starship Caesar gave way along the rail and Stay Thirsty made his bid for the lead.
Turning for home, The Fed Eased and Norman Asbjornson were not giving way. For a brief moment it appeared as though they would be the top two finishers. But Stay Thirsty charged late in the stretch to win decisively.
Norman Asbjornson finished second, followed by Toby's Corner and Nacho Saint. The final time was 1:44.78. There was an objection lodged by the rider of Norman Asbjornson against Stay Thirsty for alleged interference in the stretch, but it was not allowed.
-Keelerman
The Fed Eased set the early pace, with 45-1 shot Norman Asbjornson tracking him in second. They were followed by Starship Caesar along the rail in third and Stay Thirsty on the far outside in fourth. Through fractions of :24.79 and :49.18 they continued in this order. Approaching the far turn Starship Caesar gave way along the rail and Stay Thirsty made his bid for the lead.
Turning for home, The Fed Eased and Norman Asbjornson were not giving way. For a brief moment it appeared as though they would be the top two finishers. But Stay Thirsty charged late in the stretch to win decisively.
Norman Asbjornson finished second, followed by Toby's Corner and Nacho Saint. The final time was 1:44.78. There was an objection lodged by the rider of Norman Asbjornson against Stay Thirsty for alleged interference in the stretch, but it was not allowed.
-Keelerman
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