It's a big day today at Aqueduct racetrack in New York, for today is the day of the $1,000,000 Wood Memorial (gr. I). It's a fabulous card, with four graded stakes races including the Carter Handicap (gr. I) for older horses. Here are my thoughts on the four races:
Comely Stakes (gr. III)
3yo Fillies, One Mile on the Main Track.
This race has drawn a fascinating field of seven sophomore fillies, led by the morning line favorite Ava K. The daughter of Dixie Union has won all three of her starts, the last being the one-mile and seventy yards Proud Puppy Stakes, which she won by three lengths. However, all of her victories have come in state-restricted races, and this is a major step up in class.
If Ava K. should falter, then expect Her Smile to be right there at the finish. The filly has made six start, winning three while placing twice. Last time out, she ran a close third in the Suncoast Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs behind Wyomia and Devilish Lady. It was a very strong performance, and I believe that she is more than capable of winning this race.
R Holiday Mood is another logical contender based off of two consecutive victories. She is a stakes winner, having won the Out Ruled Stakes last time out, and has proven to be very gutsy indeed. Both of her wins have come by a neck. If she can secure a fairly easy lead, expect her to be tough to catch in the stretch.
My picks:
1 Her Smile
2 Ava K.
3 R Holiday Mood
Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III)
3yo, 7 Furlongs on the Main Track
I believe that this is J J's Lucky Train's race. The colt has proven to be very consistent, for he has finished worse than second only once. After finishing second in both the Count Fleet and Whirlaway Stakes, he defeated Bandbox by a neck in the Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park. Bandbox came back to impressively win the Private Terms Stakes, and finishing third in the Count Fleet Stakes was Pants On Fire, who won the Louisiana Derby two starts later. So J J's Lucky Train has certainly been competing against some very good company!
Vengeful Wildcat and Buffum are two other obvious contenders. Vengeful Wildcat won the Tyro Stakes last year and finished second in the grade III Sapling Stakes on September 4th. He was given a lengthy break after that, returning to the races on March 5th to run a decent third in the Fred "Cappy" Capossela Stakes going six furlongs at Aqueduct.
Buffum broke his maiden in a sharp performance at Belmont Park in October last year, but has disappointed in two subsequent stakes tries. Seven furlongs may be his best distance, and I expect to see him perform better today.
Smoke It Right is undefeated in four starts, but all have come against lesser competition. Last time out, he won the six furlong Mountain Valley Stakes at Oaklawn Park. He has a lot of talent, but I'm not sure if he's ready to compete at this level.
My picks:
1 J J's Lucky Train
2 Vengeful Wildcat
3 Smoke It Right
Carter Handicap (gr. I)
3yo+, 7 Furlongs on the Main Track
Four scratches, including the withdrawal of favored Calibrachoa, have left the field for the prestigious grade I sprint race with only eight runners. Apriority will likely be sent off as the favorite. Although he has never competed in a graded stakes race, he easily won a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race last time out at Gulfstream Park, missing the track record by just .03 seconds. Although this is a major step up in class, I believe that he will be a factor in the stretch.
Morning Line is another strong contender. Winner of the Hal's Hope Stakes earlier this year, he ran second in the grade I Donn Handicap (gr. I) last time out and may appreciate the shorter distance of today's race.
I also really like Yawanna Twist's chances. The colt finished second in the Illinois Derby last year before running a huge fourth in the Preakness Stakes. An extremely length break followed, as he did not race again in February of this year, when he ran in a seven furlong allowance optional claiming race at Aqueduct. He won impressively by 1 1/2 lengths in a sharp 1:21.92. A strong second in the nine furlong Kings Point Stakes sets him up for today's race. I believe that he will rally late for a top three finish.
My picks:
1 Apriority
2 Morning Line
3 Yawanna Twist
Wood Memorial (gr. I)
3yo, Nine Furlongs on the Main Track
This is Uncle Mo's race to lose. The heavy favorite for the Kentucky Derby next month, he is undefeated in four starts. He's got tactical speed. He's the two-year-old champion. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. If he loses, it would be a simply tremendous upset.
None of the others contenders can match his raw talent. None of them have ever earned a Beyer speed figure as good as Uncle Mo's lowest figure. The morning line second choice is coming off of a third-place finish in a grade III stakes race. There are some quality horses lined up to face the champion, but to be perfectly honest, I would be surprised if Uncle Mo doesn't win in a hand ride by ten lengths.
For second? I like Toby's Corner, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes and third in the Gotham (gr. III). He will be wearing blinkers today and should be coming strongly late. Norman Asbjornson put up a game fight at huge odds in the Gotham, finishing second behind Stay Thirsty, but time will tell if he can repeat that performance.
Starship Caesar finished last in the Gotham, but his previous performances merit at least a brief glance by handicappers playing the superfecta. If he rebounds, he could earn a sizable piece of the purse.
My picks:
1 Uncle Mo
2 Toby's Corner
3 Norman Asbjornson
4 Starship Caesar
5 Arthur's Tale
6 Duca
7 Isn't He Perfect
8 Preachintothedevil
9 Son of Posse
J.R.'s picks are:
1 Uncle Mo
2 Starship Caesar
3 Toby's Corner
4 Arthur's Tale
5 Norman Asbjornson
6 Duca
7 Preachintothedevil
8 Isn't He Perfect
9 Son of Posse
J.R. picked Starship Caesar to win the Gotham Stakes last month, and isn't about to drop him after one poor performance. He is confident that the gelding will come on late to be "best of the rest", but feels that Uncle Mo is simply unbeatable here.
I will be posting the results of these race as they are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Starship Caesar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Starship Caesar. Show all posts
Saturday, April 09, 2011
Saturday, March 05, 2011
STAY THIRSTY WINS THE GOTHAM STAKES!
It did not look good for Stay Thirsty. Heavily favored in the grade III Gotham Stakes, he had been caught wide on both turns and it looked like he was not going to be able to get past the leaders at the top of the stretch. But Stay Thirsty kept grinding away, and took off inside the final sixteenth of a mile under Ramon Dominguez to win the Gotham by three lengths.
The Fed Eased set the early pace, with 45-1 shot Norman Asbjornson tracking him in second. They were followed by Starship Caesar along the rail in third and Stay Thirsty on the far outside in fourth. Through fractions of :24.79 and :49.18 they continued in this order. Approaching the far turn Starship Caesar gave way along the rail and Stay Thirsty made his bid for the lead.
Turning for home, The Fed Eased and Norman Asbjornson were not giving way. For a brief moment it appeared as though they would be the top two finishers. But Stay Thirsty charged late in the stretch to win decisively.
Norman Asbjornson finished second, followed by Toby's Corner and Nacho Saint. The final time was 1:44.78. There was an objection lodged by the rider of Norman Asbjornson against Stay Thirsty for alleged interference in the stretch, but it was not allowed.
-Keelerman
The Fed Eased set the early pace, with 45-1 shot Norman Asbjornson tracking him in second. They were followed by Starship Caesar along the rail in third and Stay Thirsty on the far outside in fourth. Through fractions of :24.79 and :49.18 they continued in this order. Approaching the far turn Starship Caesar gave way along the rail and Stay Thirsty made his bid for the lead.
Turning for home, The Fed Eased and Norman Asbjornson were not giving way. For a brief moment it appeared as though they would be the top two finishers. But Stay Thirsty charged late in the stretch to win decisively.
Norman Asbjornson finished second, followed by Toby's Corner and Nacho Saint. The final time was 1:44.78. There was an objection lodged by the rider of Norman Asbjornson against Stay Thirsty for alleged interference in the stretch, but it was not allowed.
-Keelerman
GOTHAM STAKES UPDATE
We are currently five minutes from post time for the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. The current favorite is Stay Thirsty at even money, with Toby's Corner at 3-2.
Updates on the conditions of the race and track:
Preachintothedevil and Dawly have scratched.
The main track is labeled fast.
Jara Fernando has taken over the mount on Starship Caesar
The Fed Eased will carry 117 pounds rather than 116.
J.R.'s selection, Starship Caesar, is currently 21-1. I must admit that I feel pretty good about passing him in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest following this race. . . :)
-Keelerman
Updates on the conditions of the race and track:
Preachintothedevil and Dawly have scratched.
The main track is labeled fast.
Jara Fernando has taken over the mount on Starship Caesar
The Fed Eased will carry 117 pounds rather than 116.
J.R.'s selection, Starship Caesar, is currently 21-1. I must admit that I feel pretty good about passing him in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest following this race. . . :)
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- March 5th, 2011 - Feature Race: Santa Anita Oaks
This weekend’s racing action consists mainly of some spectacular races for older horse – the Santa Anita Handicap, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile, and such. This weekend also marks the return of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer. But there’s also plenty of fine racing action scheduled for three-year-olds, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. II), the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I), and an allowance race on Sunday in which Dialed In shall run. This week’s feature race was difficult to select, but I finally settled on the Santa Anita Oaks.
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I)Santa Anita Park/One and One Sixteenth Miles/$250,000 Purse
The Santa Anita Oaks, the second grade I race for three-year-old fillies of the Santa Anita meet, has mainly been billed as a rematch between Zazu and Turbulent Descent, who ran 1-2 in the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) last month. They are expected to be the heavy favorites in the compact field of five, and no one will be surprised if they run 1-2 yet again.
Here are the entries:
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 May Day Rose 6-1
2 Zazu 2-1
3 Turbulent Descent 1-1
4 Kilograeme 10-1
5 A Z Warrior 4-1
All shall carry 122 pounds.
We shall begin our analysis with May Day Rose, who has drawn the rail. The daughter of Rockport Harbor won the Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III) early in the meet, but proved no match for Zazu and Turbulent Descent in the Las Virgenes, finishing a distant fourth. Trained by Bob Baffert, the front-running filly might just attempt to steal the race early by setting a slow pace under Martin Garcia. She worked a brilliant five furlongs on February 24th, going the distance in :57 4/5. Expect her to be right there in the stretch.
This brings us to Zazu. Going into last month’s Las Virgenes, she had won only one race from five starts, that being a maiden special weight. Still, she has finished second in a pair of stakes races and was expected to be running at the finish. She did indeed come running, turning back heavily favored Turbulent Descent in deep stretch to win the race by 1 ¼ lengths. Trained by John Sadler, it will be interesting to see if Zazu can beat Turbulent Descent again. Joel Rosario has the mount.
Then of course there is Turbulent Descent. The filly looked like a future superstar last fall, sweeping to easy victories in a maiden special weight, the Moccasin Stakes, and the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes. In both the Moccasin and the Starlet, she decisively defeated Zazu. But the tables were turned in the Las Virgenes, as Turbulent Descent was unable to wear down Zazu in deep stretch. Of course, Zazu got a better trip that day and Turbulent Descent probably wasn’t as fit as she could be. I believe that the chances are good that Turbulent Descent will redeem herself this afternoon. Trained by Mike Puype, she has been training sharply and will be ridden by David Flores.
Kilograeme is the next horse. Trained by Mike Mitchell, she is undefeated in two starts but is taking a big step up in class. She broke her maiden in January going seven furlongs at Santa Anita, running the distance in 1:21.75. She then narrowly won an allowance race at Santa Anita one month later, charging late to win the one-mile event by a half-length in 1:35.67. She will have to show a lot in order to defeat this group, but she mustn’t be ignored. Garrett Gomez has the mount.
Finally, we come to A Z Warrior. Trained by Bob Baffert, she was among the favorites for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies after winning the Frizette Stakes in a remarkable performance. However, she ran last in the Breeders’ Cup and has not raced since then. She will probably need this race in order to return to peak form, so I don’t expect her to win this afternoon. But she has been training sharply and I would not be surprised if she is in contention coming down the stretch. She will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano and has been training very well for this race.
My selections are thus:
1 Turbulent Descent
2 Zazu
3 Kilograeme
4 A Z Warrior
5 May Day Rose
There is a reason why I took to calling Turbulent Descent the “Mini-Zenyatta” when discussing the Las Virgenes Stakes last month. I believe that she is incredibly talented and merely needed the race last time out. I expect her to return to her dominating ways this afternoon. As for Kilograeme, I expect her to get a perfect stalking trip in third behind A Z Warrior and May Day Rose early on. I would not be surprised to see her take the lead in the stretch. She looks like a filly with a bright future.
But J.R. has other ideas. Never one to play a favorite (unless he is completely positive that the favorite is a superstar) he has settled on Zazu for a narrow victory. He feels that she beat Turbulent Descent fair-and-square last time out and will do so again here.
His selections are:
1 Zazu
2 Turbulent Descent
3 May Day Rose
4 A Z Warrior
5 Kilograeme
He does acknowledge, however, that Turbulent Descent is a fine filly who is definitely the one to beat.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct is the other major Triple Crown prep race of the weekend. The mile and a sixteenth event has drawn the promising Stay Thirsty, who finished second to Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful Stakes last year and is bred to run forever. He has not raced since finishing fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, however, and may not be fully primed for this race.
Can he be beat? It won’t be easy. He has been training quite well and has top rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. But there are several horses that should be able to make a race of it.
One of those is Toby’s Corner. He has won three races in a row, including the Whirlaway Stakes over this track last time out. The late-running son of Bellamy Road should be flying at the finish, but would benefit from a sloppy track, in my opinion.
But perhaps the most intriguing horse in the race is Nacho Saint. The colt lost his first two races in maiden special weight company, but was then tried in the grade II Sanford Stakes. Despite the fact that he was a maiden, he ran a strong second, beaten just 1 ½ lengths. He then ran fifth in the Sapling Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth Park and was given a break. Months later, he returned to win a maiden special weight going a mile and Aqueduct in January. Expect him to have every chance in the stretch.
Interestingly, J.R. selected none of these as his pick. He feels that this race has upset written all over it, and therefore spent considerable time trying to locate a longshot.
“If the track is sloppy, it’s Toby’s Corner by the edge of infinity.” he boldly stated. “But I have picked Starship Caesar.”
Starship Caesar won a one-mile starter allowance race at Aqueduct last time out. True, he did close well inside the final eighth of a mile, but I don’t believe that he is in the same league as Stay Thirsty and Toby’s Corner. Therefore, I went with Stay Thirsty. I hate to play the chalk, but he’ll be tough to beat if the track is fast. If the track turns up sloppy, I would pick Toby’s Corner. Therefore, I will be watching the track conditions closely.
The Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes on the Gotham undercard has also drawn an interesting field. The morning line favorite is Rift, a stakes-placed colt that has never finished worse than third in five starts. He is coming off of a victory in an allowance optional claiming race and should run a good race. Vengeful Wildcat, making his first start since running second in the Sapling Stakes last year, could also prove victorious if he is fit enough to win in his first start back.
The Grindstone Stakes at Fair Grounds marks the return of Willcox Inn. The colt finished a good third in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) last fall before finishing third once again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Once again, the main question is whether or not he is fit enough to win off of a lengthy layoff. Stiff competition will likely come from Aces N Kings, a Texas-bred colt who has numerous stakes victories on his resume.
The second race at Santa Anita on Saturday, a maiden special weight, should also prove interesting with Chico d’Oro, who finished a strong second to Albergatti in a maiden special weight on February 12th. I can’t see him losing here this afternoon.
The fifth race on Saturday at Gulfstream Park also merits consideration. A maiden special weight event, the morning line second choice is Break Up the Game, a colt that I’ve had my eye on for a while now. He most recently finished a close fourth in a maiden special weight on January 15th, just a head behind Arch Traveler, who recently won a nine furlong allowance race over the highly promising Nacho Business. We’ll see if he can break his maiden today.
That’s all for now! I shall be posting the results of these races and more as they are run. So go out and enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I)Santa Anita Park/One and One Sixteenth Miles/$250,000 Purse
The Santa Anita Oaks, the second grade I race for three-year-old fillies of the Santa Anita meet, has mainly been billed as a rematch between Zazu and Turbulent Descent, who ran 1-2 in the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) last month. They are expected to be the heavy favorites in the compact field of five, and no one will be surprised if they run 1-2 yet again.
Here are the entries:
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 May Day Rose 6-1
2 Zazu 2-1
3 Turbulent Descent 1-1
4 Kilograeme 10-1
5 A Z Warrior 4-1
All shall carry 122 pounds.
We shall begin our analysis with May Day Rose, who has drawn the rail. The daughter of Rockport Harbor won the Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III) early in the meet, but proved no match for Zazu and Turbulent Descent in the Las Virgenes, finishing a distant fourth. Trained by Bob Baffert, the front-running filly might just attempt to steal the race early by setting a slow pace under Martin Garcia. She worked a brilliant five furlongs on February 24th, going the distance in :57 4/5. Expect her to be right there in the stretch.
This brings us to Zazu. Going into last month’s Las Virgenes, she had won only one race from five starts, that being a maiden special weight. Still, she has finished second in a pair of stakes races and was expected to be running at the finish. She did indeed come running, turning back heavily favored Turbulent Descent in deep stretch to win the race by 1 ¼ lengths. Trained by John Sadler, it will be interesting to see if Zazu can beat Turbulent Descent again. Joel Rosario has the mount.
Then of course there is Turbulent Descent. The filly looked like a future superstar last fall, sweeping to easy victories in a maiden special weight, the Moccasin Stakes, and the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes. In both the Moccasin and the Starlet, she decisively defeated Zazu. But the tables were turned in the Las Virgenes, as Turbulent Descent was unable to wear down Zazu in deep stretch. Of course, Zazu got a better trip that day and Turbulent Descent probably wasn’t as fit as she could be. I believe that the chances are good that Turbulent Descent will redeem herself this afternoon. Trained by Mike Puype, she has been training sharply and will be ridden by David Flores.
Kilograeme is the next horse. Trained by Mike Mitchell, she is undefeated in two starts but is taking a big step up in class. She broke her maiden in January going seven furlongs at Santa Anita, running the distance in 1:21.75. She then narrowly won an allowance race at Santa Anita one month later, charging late to win the one-mile event by a half-length in 1:35.67. She will have to show a lot in order to defeat this group, but she mustn’t be ignored. Garrett Gomez has the mount.
Finally, we come to A Z Warrior. Trained by Bob Baffert, she was among the favorites for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies after winning the Frizette Stakes in a remarkable performance. However, she ran last in the Breeders’ Cup and has not raced since then. She will probably need this race in order to return to peak form, so I don’t expect her to win this afternoon. But she has been training sharply and I would not be surprised if she is in contention coming down the stretch. She will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano and has been training very well for this race.
My selections are thus:
1 Turbulent Descent
2 Zazu
3 Kilograeme
4 A Z Warrior
5 May Day Rose
There is a reason why I took to calling Turbulent Descent the “Mini-Zenyatta” when discussing the Las Virgenes Stakes last month. I believe that she is incredibly talented and merely needed the race last time out. I expect her to return to her dominating ways this afternoon. As for Kilograeme, I expect her to get a perfect stalking trip in third behind A Z Warrior and May Day Rose early on. I would not be surprised to see her take the lead in the stretch. She looks like a filly with a bright future.
But J.R. has other ideas. Never one to play a favorite (unless he is completely positive that the favorite is a superstar) he has settled on Zazu for a narrow victory. He feels that she beat Turbulent Descent fair-and-square last time out and will do so again here.
His selections are:
1 Zazu
2 Turbulent Descent
3 May Day Rose
4 A Z Warrior
5 Kilograeme
He does acknowledge, however, that Turbulent Descent is a fine filly who is definitely the one to beat.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct is the other major Triple Crown prep race of the weekend. The mile and a sixteenth event has drawn the promising Stay Thirsty, who finished second to Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful Stakes last year and is bred to run forever. He has not raced since finishing fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, however, and may not be fully primed for this race.
Can he be beat? It won’t be easy. He has been training quite well and has top rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. But there are several horses that should be able to make a race of it.
One of those is Toby’s Corner. He has won three races in a row, including the Whirlaway Stakes over this track last time out. The late-running son of Bellamy Road should be flying at the finish, but would benefit from a sloppy track, in my opinion.
But perhaps the most intriguing horse in the race is Nacho Saint. The colt lost his first two races in maiden special weight company, but was then tried in the grade II Sanford Stakes. Despite the fact that he was a maiden, he ran a strong second, beaten just 1 ½ lengths. He then ran fifth in the Sapling Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth Park and was given a break. Months later, he returned to win a maiden special weight going a mile and Aqueduct in January. Expect him to have every chance in the stretch.
Interestingly, J.R. selected none of these as his pick. He feels that this race has upset written all over it, and therefore spent considerable time trying to locate a longshot.
“If the track is sloppy, it’s Toby’s Corner by the edge of infinity.” he boldly stated. “But I have picked Starship Caesar.”
Starship Caesar won a one-mile starter allowance race at Aqueduct last time out. True, he did close well inside the final eighth of a mile, but I don’t believe that he is in the same league as Stay Thirsty and Toby’s Corner. Therefore, I went with Stay Thirsty. I hate to play the chalk, but he’ll be tough to beat if the track is fast. If the track turns up sloppy, I would pick Toby’s Corner. Therefore, I will be watching the track conditions closely.
The Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes on the Gotham undercard has also drawn an interesting field. The morning line favorite is Rift, a stakes-placed colt that has never finished worse than third in five starts. He is coming off of a victory in an allowance optional claiming race and should run a good race. Vengeful Wildcat, making his first start since running second in the Sapling Stakes last year, could also prove victorious if he is fit enough to win in his first start back.
The Grindstone Stakes at Fair Grounds marks the return of Willcox Inn. The colt finished a good third in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) last fall before finishing third once again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Once again, the main question is whether or not he is fit enough to win off of a lengthy layoff. Stiff competition will likely come from Aces N Kings, a Texas-bred colt who has numerous stakes victories on his resume.
The second race at Santa Anita on Saturday, a maiden special weight, should also prove interesting with Chico d’Oro, who finished a strong second to Albergatti in a maiden special weight on February 12th. I can’t see him losing here this afternoon.
The fifth race on Saturday at Gulfstream Park also merits consideration. A maiden special weight event, the morning line second choice is Break Up the Game, a colt that I’ve had my eye on for a while now. He most recently finished a close fourth in a maiden special weight on January 15th, just a head behind Arch Traveler, who recently won a nine furlong allowance race over the highly promising Nacho Business. We’ll see if he can break his maiden today.
That’s all for now! I shall be posting the results of these races and more as they are run. So go out and enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)