This weekend’s racing action consists mainly of some spectacular races for older horse – the Santa Anita Handicap, the Frank E. Kilroe Mile, and such. This weekend also marks the return of 2010 Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer. But there’s also plenty of fine racing action scheduled for three-year-olds, including the Gotham Stakes (gr. II), the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I), and an allowance race on Sunday in which Dialed In shall run. This week’s feature race was difficult to select, but I finally settled on the Santa Anita Oaks.
FEATURE RACE ---- Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I)Santa Anita Park/One and One Sixteenth Miles/$250,000 Purse
The Santa Anita Oaks, the second grade I race for three-year-old fillies of the Santa Anita meet, has mainly been billed as a rematch between Zazu and Turbulent Descent, who ran 1-2 in the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) last month. They are expected to be the heavy favorites in the compact field of five, and no one will be surprised if they run 1-2 yet again.
Here are the entries:
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 May Day Rose 6-1
2 Zazu 2-1
3 Turbulent Descent 1-1
4 Kilograeme 10-1
5 A Z Warrior 4-1
All shall carry 122 pounds.
We shall begin our analysis with May Day Rose, who has drawn the rail. The daughter of Rockport Harbor won the Santa Ysable Stakes (gr. III) early in the meet, but proved no match for Zazu and Turbulent Descent in the Las Virgenes, finishing a distant fourth. Trained by Bob Baffert, the front-running filly might just attempt to steal the race early by setting a slow pace under Martin Garcia. She worked a brilliant five furlongs on February 24th, going the distance in :57 4/5. Expect her to be right there in the stretch.
This brings us to Zazu. Going into last month’s Las Virgenes, she had won only one race from five starts, that being a maiden special weight. Still, she has finished second in a pair of stakes races and was expected to be running at the finish. She did indeed come running, turning back heavily favored Turbulent Descent in deep stretch to win the race by 1 ¼ lengths. Trained by John Sadler, it will be interesting to see if Zazu can beat Turbulent Descent again. Joel Rosario has the mount.
Then of course there is Turbulent Descent. The filly looked like a future superstar last fall, sweeping to easy victories in a maiden special weight, the Moccasin Stakes, and the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes. In both the Moccasin and the Starlet, she decisively defeated Zazu. But the tables were turned in the Las Virgenes, as Turbulent Descent was unable to wear down Zazu in deep stretch. Of course, Zazu got a better trip that day and Turbulent Descent probably wasn’t as fit as she could be. I believe that the chances are good that Turbulent Descent will redeem herself this afternoon. Trained by Mike Puype, she has been training sharply and will be ridden by David Flores.
Kilograeme is the next horse. Trained by Mike Mitchell, she is undefeated in two starts but is taking a big step up in class. She broke her maiden in January going seven furlongs at Santa Anita, running the distance in 1:21.75. She then narrowly won an allowance race at Santa Anita one month later, charging late to win the one-mile event by a half-length in 1:35.67. She will have to show a lot in order to defeat this group, but she mustn’t be ignored. Garrett Gomez has the mount.
Finally, we come to A Z Warrior. Trained by Bob Baffert, she was among the favorites for last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies after winning the Frizette Stakes in a remarkable performance. However, she ran last in the Breeders’ Cup and has not raced since then. She will probably need this race in order to return to peak form, so I don’t expect her to win this afternoon. But she has been training sharply and I would not be surprised if she is in contention coming down the stretch. She will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano and has been training very well for this race.
My selections are thus:
1 Turbulent Descent
2 Zazu
3 Kilograeme
4 A Z Warrior
5 May Day Rose
There is a reason why I took to calling Turbulent Descent the “Mini-Zenyatta” when discussing the Las Virgenes Stakes last month. I believe that she is incredibly talented and merely needed the race last time out. I expect her to return to her dominating ways this afternoon. As for Kilograeme, I expect her to get a perfect stalking trip in third behind A Z Warrior and May Day Rose early on. I would not be surprised to see her take the lead in the stretch. She looks like a filly with a bright future.
But J.R. has other ideas. Never one to play a favorite (unless he is completely positive that the favorite is a superstar) he has settled on Zazu for a narrow victory. He feels that she beat Turbulent Descent fair-and-square last time out and will do so again here.
His selections are:
1 Zazu
2 Turbulent Descent
3 May Day Rose
4 A Z Warrior
5 Kilograeme
He does acknowledge, however, that Turbulent Descent is a fine filly who is definitely the one to beat.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The Gotham Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct is the other major Triple Crown prep race of the weekend. The mile and a sixteenth event has drawn the promising Stay Thirsty, who finished second to Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful Stakes last year and is bred to run forever. He has not raced since finishing fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, however, and may not be fully primed for this race.
Can he be beat? It won’t be easy. He has been training quite well and has top rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle. But there are several horses that should be able to make a race of it.
One of those is Toby’s Corner. He has won three races in a row, including the Whirlaway Stakes over this track last time out. The late-running son of Bellamy Road should be flying at the finish, but would benefit from a sloppy track, in my opinion.
But perhaps the most intriguing horse in the race is Nacho Saint. The colt lost his first two races in maiden special weight company, but was then tried in the grade II Sanford Stakes. Despite the fact that he was a maiden, he ran a strong second, beaten just 1 ½ lengths. He then ran fifth in the Sapling Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth Park and was given a break. Months later, he returned to win a maiden special weight going a mile and Aqueduct in January. Expect him to have every chance in the stretch.
Interestingly, J.R. selected none of these as his pick. He feels that this race has upset written all over it, and therefore spent considerable time trying to locate a longshot.
“If the track is sloppy, it’s Toby’s Corner by the edge of infinity.” he boldly stated. “But I have picked Starship Caesar.”
Starship Caesar won a one-mile starter allowance race at Aqueduct last time out. True, he did close well inside the final eighth of a mile, but I don’t believe that he is in the same league as Stay Thirsty and Toby’s Corner. Therefore, I went with Stay Thirsty. I hate to play the chalk, but he’ll be tough to beat if the track is fast. If the track turns up sloppy, I would pick Toby’s Corner. Therefore, I will be watching the track conditions closely.
The Fred “Cappy” Capossela Stakes on the Gotham undercard has also drawn an interesting field. The morning line favorite is Rift, a stakes-placed colt that has never finished worse than third in five starts. He is coming off of a victory in an allowance optional claiming race and should run a good race. Vengeful Wildcat, making his first start since running second in the Sapling Stakes last year, could also prove victorious if he is fit enough to win in his first start back.
The Grindstone Stakes at Fair Grounds marks the return of Willcox Inn. The colt finished a good third in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) last fall before finishing third once again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Once again, the main question is whether or not he is fit enough to win off of a lengthy layoff. Stiff competition will likely come from Aces N Kings, a Texas-bred colt who has numerous stakes victories on his resume.
The second race at Santa Anita on Saturday, a maiden special weight, should also prove interesting with Chico d’Oro, who finished a strong second to Albergatti in a maiden special weight on February 12th. I can’t see him losing here this afternoon.
The fifth race on Saturday at Gulfstream Park also merits consideration. A maiden special weight event, the morning line second choice is Break Up the Game, a colt that I’ve had my eye on for a while now. He most recently finished a close fourth in a maiden special weight on January 15th, just a head behind Arch Traveler, who recently won a nine furlong allowance race over the highly promising Nacho Business. We’ll see if he can break his maiden today.
That’s all for now! I shall be posting the results of these races and more as they are run. So go out and enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Rift. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rift. Show all posts
Saturday, March 05, 2011
Monday, January 17, 2011
FORT HUGHES WINS THE JIMMY WINKFIELD!
Fort Hughes, sent off as the 7-5, turned in an impressive front-running effort to win the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct by all of four lengths.
Ridden by Eddie Castro, Fort Gughes broke alertly and was sent straight to the lead, where he dueled with third choice Royal Currier through testing fractions. Second choice Rift was rating behind them in third.
Turning for home, Fort Gughes began to pull away from Royal Currier, passing the eighth pole in :56.37. He continued to draw away in the final sixteenth, stopping the clock in a very sharp 1:08.33. Royal Currier finished second, followed by Rift and Bravo Romeo. Bambi Bound and Running Tap trailed.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Eddie Castro, Fort Gughes broke alertly and was sent straight to the lead, where he dueled with third choice Royal Currier through testing fractions. Second choice Rift was rating behind them in third.
Turning for home, Fort Gughes began to pull away from Royal Currier, passing the eighth pole in :56.37. He continued to draw away in the final sixteenth, stopping the clock in a very sharp 1:08.33. Royal Currier finished second, followed by Rift and Bravo Romeo. Bambi Bound and Running Tap trailed.
-Keelerman
Saturday, January 15, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 15th, 2011
As promised, here is the second part of yesterday's post, this one concerning all of the three-year-old stakes races to be run on Sunday and Monday. As I wrote about this week's feature race in my last post, this post shall not include one. I shall merely continue to briefly mention all of the stakes races which I failed to discuss on my last post.
I shall begin with Sunday's races; then move on to Monday's. Enjoy!
SUNDAY, JANUARY 16th
There are three races on Sunday that merit attention, and I must admit that each and every one of them is worth noting.
The first race is the Dania Beach Stakes, a one-mile turf event at Gulfstream Park. A field of ten has entered, with the mild morning line favorite being Lil Bit O'Fun. The son of Langfuhr out of Dash of Humor has won two of his three starts, never finishing worse than second. He broke his maiden first time out going 5-1/2 furlongs by nearly four lengths. He then ran second in a one-mile turf allowance race at Keeneland, finishing five lengths behind the nice colt Banned while beating good colts like Grant Jack and El Grayling. In his final start, he won a one-mile turf allowance race at Churchill Downs by 2 1/2 lengths. This will be his first start since November 7th, but he should be in contention coming down the stretch.
Swift Warrior is the second choice, based off of his decent third in the Tropical Park Derby on January 1st. The late-running son of First Samurai out of Afleet Summer needs a good pace in front of him to set up his charge. Fortunately, a strong pace seems like a possibility tomorrow.
Adirondack Summer is another horse that interests me. He has made two starts, winning a maiden special weight first time out before finishing second in a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct. On that day, he was bumped and squeezed in the stretch yet still managed to rally strongly enough to finish second. With a cleaner trip tomorrow, he might be able to pull off a victory.
The second race of note is the second race at Santa Anita, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds. Luckarack, who drew the rail, could end up being one of the favorites. He won his first three starts, consisting of a maiden claiming race, the Everett Nevin Alameda County Stakes at Pleasanton, and the Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes. However, he has turned in three consecutive off-the-board performances since then, including a seventh-place finish in the Gold Rush Stakes as the favorite last time out.
Chiloquin should also be well-bet, based off of his solid victory in a six-furlong starter allowance race at Hollywood Park.
I wouldn't ignore Drink at Buster's either, who finished a deceivingly good fourth in a 5-1/2 furlong allowance race last time out off of a long layoff. Don't be surprised if he runs better tomorrow.
The final race of note on Sunday is the eighth race at Fair Grounds, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Sam's Bliss, who broke her maiden last time out going 5-1/2 furlongs on the turf. She finished a good third going six-furlongs on dirt in his last start and should run a good race.
The second choice is Wicked Deed, who turned in a jaw-dropping late run to win a maiden special weight last time out. Two lengths behind the leader at the eighth pole, she rocketed past to win by slightly more than six lengths. I believe that with a solid pace to chase we will see a similar performance tomorrow.
Ellusive Wildcat, the third choice, could also turn in a good rally. From three starts, she has a win, a second, and a third. In her last start, a 5-1/2 furlong turf allowance race, she rallied from last of six to finish second. I will be watching her run tomorrow closely.
MONDAY, JANUARY 17th
Three stakes races for three-year-olds are scheduled to be run on Monday: the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct, the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita. All have drawn fascinating fields which warrant close attention.
The six-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes has drawn a field of six runners, with the narrow morning line favorite being Rift, who drew the rail. He has made three starts, all of them in maiden special weight company and all of them coming at Aqueduct. He began his career in a 5-1/2 furlong event, running second as the even-money favorite. He then finished second once again in a six-furlong race, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths after leading at the eighth pole.
He finally broke through with a victory in his most recent start, a six-furlong maiden race. Sent off as the odds-one favorite, he broke well, took the lead, and never looked back en route to a 1 1/4 length triumph. It was a very strong performance; one which makes him the deserving favorite here.
The second choice at 9-5 is Fort Hughes, who began his career impressively by winning the 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight in which Rift finished second. The margin of victory was 5 1/2 lengths, which earned him a start in the Southhampton Stakes at Parx Racing. He made a very good run from fourth, but failed to catch Royal Currier by a head. I really like his chances here and believe that he can upset Rift.
Royal Currier is back to try and beat Fort Hughes again. He drew gate three and is the 4-1 third choice. However, I doubt that he will hold off Fort Hughes today.
The 6-1/2 furlong San Pedro Stakes drew seven runners, all of them filled to the brim with untapped potential. There are many that I will be watching, including Industry Leader, who drew the rail. He broke his maiden by 2 1/4 lengths first time out, defeating Pride of Silver, who will be running in the Sham Stakes on Saturday. He then ran second in the Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III), a solid performance which warranted a step up in class to the grade I CashCall Futurity. Sent off at about 7-1, he ran a disappointing ninth. He is taking a step down in class here and should run better in this spot.
However, the colt that I really have my eye on is Sinai. On December 18th, he turned in a dominating wire-to-wire victory in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood Park, turning back the challenge of Arousal in the stretch to win by two lengths. His workouts have been very good and if he can handle dirt he could turn into a very nice Triple Crown contender.
I will also be watching Indian Winter. The highly-promising colt won a six-furlong maiden special weight on August 21st at Del Mar. Sent off as the 6-1 third choice in the grade I Del Mar Futurity, he was forced to steady at the three-eighths pole but still managed to finish in a dead-heat for third. If he runs well on Monday, then he could become a legitimate Santa Anita Derby contender.
Arcadian is the final horse that I shall note. He is undefeated in two starts, having won a maiden optional claiming event at Turf Paradise by six lengths before easily dominating the 6-1/2 furlong Lost in the Fog Juvenile Stakes at that same track, drawing off to a 6 1/2 length victory in a sharp final time.
On January 10th, he worked six furlongs in 1:10 2/5 handily at Turf Paradise, which seems to signal that he is ready for an impressive performance.
Finally, we come to the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. It has drawn a field of seven, from which two horses have caught my eye.
The first is Archarcharch, who broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes last time out. It was a very good effort and he strikes me as a colt that is loaded with stamina and should relish additional distance.
The other colt is Grant Jack, a winner of two of his six starts. Last time out, he upset the Springboard Mile Stakes at odds of 14.40-1. If he runs as well on Monday as he did on that day, he can win this race.
Dreaminofthewin is another notable colt. He won a maiden special weight second time out before winning a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race. He seems to be rapidly improving and may have a good chance at winning this race.
And that is all. It took thousands of words, but I believe that I have at least briefly mentioned every race of note for three-year-olds being run over the next few days.
On a side note, Blind Luck, last year's champion three-year-old filly, will be running in the El Encino Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Sunday. She will be facing Champagne d'Oro, a two-time grade I winner, and Malibu Pier, who finished a good second in the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) last month. Don’t miss it!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
I shall begin with Sunday's races; then move on to Monday's. Enjoy!
SUNDAY, JANUARY 16th
There are three races on Sunday that merit attention, and I must admit that each and every one of them is worth noting.
The first race is the Dania Beach Stakes, a one-mile turf event at Gulfstream Park. A field of ten has entered, with the mild morning line favorite being Lil Bit O'Fun. The son of Langfuhr out of Dash of Humor has won two of his three starts, never finishing worse than second. He broke his maiden first time out going 5-1/2 furlongs by nearly four lengths. He then ran second in a one-mile turf allowance race at Keeneland, finishing five lengths behind the nice colt Banned while beating good colts like Grant Jack and El Grayling. In his final start, he won a one-mile turf allowance race at Churchill Downs by 2 1/2 lengths. This will be his first start since November 7th, but he should be in contention coming down the stretch.
Swift Warrior is the second choice, based off of his decent third in the Tropical Park Derby on January 1st. The late-running son of First Samurai out of Afleet Summer needs a good pace in front of him to set up his charge. Fortunately, a strong pace seems like a possibility tomorrow.
Adirondack Summer is another horse that interests me. He has made two starts, winning a maiden special weight first time out before finishing second in a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct. On that day, he was bumped and squeezed in the stretch yet still managed to rally strongly enough to finish second. With a cleaner trip tomorrow, he might be able to pull off a victory.
The second race of note is the second race at Santa Anita, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds. Luckarack, who drew the rail, could end up being one of the favorites. He won his first three starts, consisting of a maiden claiming race, the Everett Nevin Alameda County Stakes at Pleasanton, and the Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes. However, he has turned in three consecutive off-the-board performances since then, including a seventh-place finish in the Gold Rush Stakes as the favorite last time out.
Chiloquin should also be well-bet, based off of his solid victory in a six-furlong starter allowance race at Hollywood Park.
I wouldn't ignore Drink at Buster's either, who finished a deceivingly good fourth in a 5-1/2 furlong allowance race last time out off of a long layoff. Don't be surprised if he runs better tomorrow.
The final race of note on Sunday is the eighth race at Fair Grounds, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Sam's Bliss, who broke her maiden last time out going 5-1/2 furlongs on the turf. She finished a good third going six-furlongs on dirt in his last start and should run a good race.
The second choice is Wicked Deed, who turned in a jaw-dropping late run to win a maiden special weight last time out. Two lengths behind the leader at the eighth pole, she rocketed past to win by slightly more than six lengths. I believe that with a solid pace to chase we will see a similar performance tomorrow.
Ellusive Wildcat, the third choice, could also turn in a good rally. From three starts, she has a win, a second, and a third. In her last start, a 5-1/2 furlong turf allowance race, she rallied from last of six to finish second. I will be watching her run tomorrow closely.
MONDAY, JANUARY 17th
Three stakes races for three-year-olds are scheduled to be run on Monday: the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct, the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita. All have drawn fascinating fields which warrant close attention.
The six-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes has drawn a field of six runners, with the narrow morning line favorite being Rift, who drew the rail. He has made three starts, all of them in maiden special weight company and all of them coming at Aqueduct. He began his career in a 5-1/2 furlong event, running second as the even-money favorite. He then finished second once again in a six-furlong race, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths after leading at the eighth pole.
He finally broke through with a victory in his most recent start, a six-furlong maiden race. Sent off as the odds-one favorite, he broke well, took the lead, and never looked back en route to a 1 1/4 length triumph. It was a very strong performance; one which makes him the deserving favorite here.
The second choice at 9-5 is Fort Hughes, who began his career impressively by winning the 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight in which Rift finished second. The margin of victory was 5 1/2 lengths, which earned him a start in the Southhampton Stakes at Parx Racing. He made a very good run from fourth, but failed to catch Royal Currier by a head. I really like his chances here and believe that he can upset Rift.
Royal Currier is back to try and beat Fort Hughes again. He drew gate three and is the 4-1 third choice. However, I doubt that he will hold off Fort Hughes today.
The 6-1/2 furlong San Pedro Stakes drew seven runners, all of them filled to the brim with untapped potential. There are many that I will be watching, including Industry Leader, who drew the rail. He broke his maiden by 2 1/4 lengths first time out, defeating Pride of Silver, who will be running in the Sham Stakes on Saturday. He then ran second in the Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III), a solid performance which warranted a step up in class to the grade I CashCall Futurity. Sent off at about 7-1, he ran a disappointing ninth. He is taking a step down in class here and should run better in this spot.
However, the colt that I really have my eye on is Sinai. On December 18th, he turned in a dominating wire-to-wire victory in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood Park, turning back the challenge of Arousal in the stretch to win by two lengths. His workouts have been very good and if he can handle dirt he could turn into a very nice Triple Crown contender.
I will also be watching Indian Winter. The highly-promising colt won a six-furlong maiden special weight on August 21st at Del Mar. Sent off as the 6-1 third choice in the grade I Del Mar Futurity, he was forced to steady at the three-eighths pole but still managed to finish in a dead-heat for third. If he runs well on Monday, then he could become a legitimate Santa Anita Derby contender.
Arcadian is the final horse that I shall note. He is undefeated in two starts, having won a maiden optional claiming event at Turf Paradise by six lengths before easily dominating the 6-1/2 furlong Lost in the Fog Juvenile Stakes at that same track, drawing off to a 6 1/2 length victory in a sharp final time.
On January 10th, he worked six furlongs in 1:10 2/5 handily at Turf Paradise, which seems to signal that he is ready for an impressive performance.
Finally, we come to the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. It has drawn a field of seven, from which two horses have caught my eye.
The first is Archarcharch, who broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes last time out. It was a very good effort and he strikes me as a colt that is loaded with stamina and should relish additional distance.
The other colt is Grant Jack, a winner of two of his six starts. Last time out, he upset the Springboard Mile Stakes at odds of 14.40-1. If he runs as well on Monday as he did on that day, he can win this race.
Dreaminofthewin is another notable colt. He won a maiden special weight second time out before winning a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race. He seems to be rapidly improving and may have a good chance at winning this race.
And that is all. It took thousands of words, but I believe that I have at least briefly mentioned every race of note for three-year-olds being run over the next few days.
On a side note, Blind Luck, last year's champion three-year-old filly, will be running in the El Encino Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Sunday. She will be facing Champagne d'Oro, a two-time grade I winner, and Malibu Pier, who finished a good second in the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) last month. Don’t miss it!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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