Note: As you will soon see, this “Triple Crown Countdown” is different from past posts. The reason is that I am a bit behind in my posting and wanted to get caught up quickly. Therefore, rather than writing a full-blown recap of all the notable races from the past two weeks, I shall instead conduct a rather brief mention of each race. I will resume my usual style of writing soon, unless you read this post and think “I like this better!” If that it is the case, then feel free to comment and tell me so! I value your thoughts!
RACE RECAPS
January 29th
• J W Blue showed a potent late kick in an allowance race at Oaklawn Park, rallying from last to win by 1 ½ lengths while completing the mile and a sixteenth in 1:46.80. Commander, who was coming off of a close third to the highly-regarded Alternation and Elite Alex, finished a distant sixth.
• In the fifth race at Gulfstream Park—a seven furlong allowance race—narrow favorite Crossbow eked out a narrow victory over second choice Sovereign Default. The two were never more than a half-length apart until deep in the stretch, when Crossbow pulled away ever so slightly to win by three-quarters of a length. The final time was 1:22.86.
• Runflatout ran flat out in his first race, a six furlong maiden special weight race. Sent off as the second choice in a six horse field, he tracked the pace set by Tokubetsu before inching away to score by 2 ½ lengths while stopping the clock in a brilliant 1:07.70. There is no doubt in my mind that this colt will win a stakes race someday!
January 30th
• Dialed In launched himself toward the top of everyone’s Kentucky Derby watch lists with his brilliant last-to-first victory in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). When one considers that it was only his second start, the very thought of what this colt might do after gaining some more experience is exciting. Favored Mucho Macho Man ran fourth after helping set a fast pace.
• Machen showed just how talented he is in a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds. Despite being rank early and racing greenly in the stretch, the colt split horses like a pro and drew off to an overwhelmingly easy five length victory. The Risen Star Stakes may be next.
• In a maiden special weight race at Gulfstream Park, first-time starter Nacho Business pulled off a mild upset, running down pacesetter Bowman’s Causeway in the lane to win by 1 ¼ lengths. Sinorice finished fourth.
• Dancinginherdreams and R Heat Lightning were both the favorites at 1.30-1 in the seven furlong grade II Forward Gal Stakes, but both were beaten. Pomeroy’s Pistol, who had finished second to Final Mesa in the Old Hat Stakes (gr. III), pulled off a 9-1 upset when she held off Dancinginherdreams to win by three-quarters of a length. R Heat Lightning finished a disappointing fourth.
February 4th
• In a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race at Aqueduct, Congo overcame a trouble-filled trip to win by three-quarters of a length. Trapped behind horses with nowhere to go in the stretch, he waited . . .and waited . . .and waited before finding an opening. With sudden acceleration, he roared passed horses on the far outside to win the race in 1:43.02. Perhaps the Gotham Stakes in March will be his next start.
February 5th
• In the Premier Night Prince Stakes at Delta Downs, favored Su Casa G Casa held on desperately to win by a neck over the late-charging Loranger Native, completing the seven-furlong event in 1:25.02. Su Casa G Casa had previously finished second to Decisive Moment in the Jean Lafitte Stakes.
• At Turfway Park, the WEBN Stakes yielded interesting, if not uninspiring, results. Twinspired, the favorite despite the fact that he had failed to hit the board in his three most recent starts, won the one-mile race by 4 ¼ lengths. The final time was a tepid 1:41.57, and Twinspired closed his final quarter in :28.15 seconds and his final eighth in :14.40. Granted, he didn’t receive the best of trips, but I find it hard to picture this colt as a Triple Crown contender.
• I had the suspicion that Trubs would become a stakes winner someday, but I hardly expected him to do so in the Black Gold Stakes. Faced with the task of defeating promising allowance optional claiming winner Divine Music, he passed the test with flying colors. With Jesse Campbell in the saddle, Trubs battled with Divine Music throughout the stretch, gamely holding off his more fancied rival to win by a neck. The final time was 1:11.18.
• Prior to the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I), I never would have believed that Zazu could beat Turbulent Descent. After all, the latter had twice beaten Zazu with ease when they were two-year-olds and I found it hard to believe that Zazu would come close. But the—what do I know? Zazu turned in a remarkable performance in the Las Virgenes, sneaking through along the inside under Joel Rosario and outdueling Turbulent Descent in the stretch to pull off a major upset, stopping the clock in 1:34.86. It was apparent that Turbulent Descent needed the race, so an expected rematch between the two in the Santa Anita Oaks (gr. I) next month should prove quite fascinating.
• The Tiffany Lass Stakes at Fair Grounds proved that Wicked Deed is indeed something special. Although not favored in the four-horse field, she took the lead approaching the homestretch and drew off to a five length victory, stopping the clock in 1:11.75 for the six furlongs.
• In the eighth race at Tampa Bay Downs, a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight for three-year-olds, Striding Ahead turned in a remarkable performance. He literally strode ahead of his eight rivals en route to a 6 ¾-length triumph, stopping the clock in 1:45.58. Trained by Bill Mott and owned by Juddmonte Farms, this colt likes like one with a future!
• The Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct was run over a sloppy main track which may have skewed the results somewhat. But skewed or not, there is no doubt that Toby’s Corner is a very promising sophomore. Sent off as the fourth choice in a field of five, he rallied from well off the pace to score by two lengths in 1:45.66. A son of Bellamy Road, Toby’s Corner looks like a Gotham Stakes contender. J J’s Lucky Train, coming off of a runner-up finish to Monzon in the Count Fleet Stakes, once again finished second.
• The third race at Gulfstream Park may end up being one of the more influential Triple Crown prep races, even though the results were slightly unexpected. In the nine furlong allowance race, Shackleford took the lead after three-quarters of a mile and ran off to a 2 ¼-length victory as the co-third choice. Casper’s Touch, the even-money favorite, finished second after a rough trip. Both colts may advance to the Fountain of Youth (gr. II).
• Queen’splatekitten turned in a unbelievably brilliant late run in a one-mile turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park, one that it worthy of great accolades. In eighth place at the eighth pole, he closed like a rocket to win by 1 ½ lengths. He ran his final quarter mile in roughly :23 seconds and his final eighth in about :11. If he can run like that over a dirt track, he will rapidly become a force to be reckoned with.
• Cal Nation ran like a star in the making in the eighth race at Gulfstream Park, tracking a quick early pace set by Jack London before drawing off to a 7 ¾-length victory. He completed the seven furlong event in 1:22.02. Trained by Todd Pletcher, this is a colt that looks to have a bright future. The Fountain of Youth Stakes may be next on the agenda.
February 6th
• King Congie was favored in the Hallandale Beach Stakes off of a narrow victory in the Tropical Park Stakes. Although King Congie did cross the wire first, he had drifted out badly in the stretch, interfering with Brilliant Speed, who ended up finishing third. After a lengthy steward’s inquiry, King Congie was disqualified and placed third, making longshot Master Dunker, who had finished second, the new winner. Ironically, Brilliant Speed was King Congie’s stablemate!
Well! It took a while, but that is all of the major three-year-old action from the last two weeks. Tomorrow I shall post my thoughts on this weekend’s promising selection of sophomore stakes races.
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Wicked Deed. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wicked Deed. Show all posts
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Saturday, February 05, 2011
WICKED DEED WINS THE TIFFANY LASS!
Wicked Deed pulled off a mild upset in the Tiffany Lass Stakes this afternoon at Fair Grounds, battling with all of her three rivals down the stretch before drawing away to win by daylight.
The early pace was set by Lost My Halo, who held a narrow advantage over Wicked Deed and Unbridled Praise. Flash Mash was right behind them, the four runners seperated by less than two lengths.
As the field turned for home, the four fillies were spread across the track with less than a half-length seperating them. It was anyone's race at the top of the stretch, but Wicked Deed quickly asserted command and drew off under strong urging from jockey Anna Napravnik to win by about five or six lengths.
The final time was 1:11.75. Flash Mash finished second, a nose in front of Unbridled Praise. Lost My Halo finished fourth.
-Keelerman
The early pace was set by Lost My Halo, who held a narrow advantage over Wicked Deed and Unbridled Praise. Flash Mash was right behind them, the four runners seperated by less than two lengths.
As the field turned for home, the four fillies were spread across the track with less than a half-length seperating them. It was anyone's race at the top of the stretch, but Wicked Deed quickly asserted command and drew off under strong urging from jockey Anna Napravnik to win by about five or six lengths.
The final time was 1:11.75. Flash Mash finished second, a nose in front of Unbridled Praise. Lost My Halo finished fourth.
-Keelerman
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 5th, 2011
The first grade I race for three-year-olds of 2011 is to be run later this afternoon ---- the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) for fillies. There is also a magnificent array of other fine Triple Crown prep races, including the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct and the WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park. I will be live updating later the afternoon, posting the results of the many fine races as they are run. Enjoy!
FEATURE RACE – Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I)
One Mile on the Main Track. For 3yo Fillies.
In my opinion, this race does not require handicapping. The results are obvious. The 4-5 morning line favorite is the undefeated Turbulent Descent, whom I have taken to calling the “Mini-Zenyatta.” In my opinion, it is not a question of if she can win, rather, it is a question of how many lengths will she win by?
It will be no small task to win. Many fine fillies are set to run against her, including California Nectar and Zazu. Also, this will be Turbulent Descent’s first start over a dirt surface, as her three previous starts have come over Hollywood Park’s synthetic Cushion Track.
But if she truly does deserve the nickname of “Mini-Zenyatta,” she will overcome it all.
Here are the runners. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Plum Pretty (8-1)
2 Tiz the Route (20-1)
3 California Nectar (4-1)
4 May Day Rose (9-2)
5 Turbulent Descent (4-5)
6 Zazu (9-2)
There had been a seventh entry, Bluegrass Chatter, but she scratched.
Drawing the rail is Plum Pretty, who has had short but promising career thus far. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of the A.P. Indy mare Liszy, Plum Pretty broke her maiden first time out going six furlongs during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park. It was a strong performance, one which warranted a step up in class. She was then entered in the Santa Ynez Stakes, where she ran third behind California Nectar and Zazu after stalking the pace. Trained by Bob Baffert, she is faced with the difficult task of taking this tough field wire-to-wire. Seeing that she weakened going seven furlongs last time out against these same fillies, I can’t see her holding on to win today. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Martin Garcia.
Longshot Tiz to Route drew gate two. Trained by Joe Herrick, I’m afraid that it is tough to make a case for her chances. The daughter of Tiznow finished fourth twice in maiden special weight company at Del Mar, although the horses that beat her included Tell a Kelly and Zazu. Given a bit of a break, she returned in December during the Hollywood Park meet and finished in a dead-heat for the win in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at odds of 16.80-1. Her task today will be difficult at best, although the fact that she is a front runner should help her chances over this speed-favoring Santa Anita main track. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by B. Blanc.
This brings us to California Nectar. The promising daughter of Stormy Atlantic is the most experienced of these six fillies, having started seven times already. She began her career by running in a pair of maiden special weight races at Del Mar, and apparently lacking any serious affinity for the surface, ran second both times.
She then came out for a six-furlong maiden special weight over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track during the Oak Tree meet. Sent off as the odds-on favorite, she won in wire-to-wire fashion while in hand late.
Twenty-seven days later California Nectar was entered in the Robert H. Walter California Cup Juvenile Fillies Stakes, which, perhaps, holds the record for the longest name of a horse race. Sent off as the heavy favorite, she ran second, beaten just a nose, in a three-horse photo finish. This strong performance warranted another step up in class, for her next start came in the Miesque Stakes, a grade III event at Hollywood Park. California Nectar turned in the poorest effort of her career that day, fading to finish fourth of seven although beaten only 3 ¼ lengths.
However, it was at this time that her career really took off. Tried over Santa Anita’s dirt main track for the first time when entered in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes, she tracked odds-on favorite Teddy’s Promise for a half-mile before drawing away to win by a length and a quarter.
Her next start was even stronger. Sent off as the second choice in the Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II), she went straight to the lead and held off favored Zazu in a thrilling finish, completing the seven-furlong event in 1:21.34. That was her most recent race.
If anyone is going to upset Turbulent Descent, I believe that it could be this filly. She is two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track and has the speed to kick clear in the stretch and hold off her rivals. Trained by Doug O’Neill, she will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela.
May Day Rose drew gate five. The daughter of Rockport Harbor brings a strong resume into this race. She began her career by finishing a close second in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar. She then turned in a sharp performance in an identical event just thirteen days later, wiring the field as the odds-on favorite under Martin Garcia.
An attempt at a huge step up in class failed when she tired late in the stretch of the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes to finish fourth, beaten 3 ¼ lengths by Turbulent Descent. On the other hand, she was 1 ¾ lengths clear of Zazu that day.
Her most recent start came in the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes. Sent off as the 1-20 favorite against only two other horses, she won by 1 ¼ lengths over Bluegrass Chatter in a performance that did not warrant odds of 1-20. Still, it was a graded stakes win, and should she get a loose lead this afternoon (which seems unlikely) she could hang around for a top three finish. Trained by Bob Baffert, she will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano and will carry 119 pounds. She worked a bullet half-mile breeze on February 2nd, getting the distance in :46 2/5.
This brings us to filly number five, the undefeated, brilliant, “Mini-Zenyatta.” Named Turbulent Descent, the daughter of Congrats is undefeated in three starts and looks like a future superstar. Her first start came in a six furlong maiden special weight race during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park, where she easily to defeat Canadian Pride by three-quarters of a length in the sharp time of 1:09.90.
Her second start came in the seven-furlong Moccasin Stakes, a local prep for the prestigious Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I). Sent off as the odd-one favorite, she effortlessly passed a fine filly in Zazu to win the race by 1 ½ lengths in 1:23.15.
She came out three weeks later for the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, where she would face grade I winner Tell a Kelly, as well as Zazu, Nine Fever, and May Day Rose.
Sent off as the favorite at 1.10-1, she sat four lengths off the pace. Then three. Then two. Then, with little urging, she drew away with ease to win by a length and a quarter.
In all three of her races she has given the impression that she has untapped talent; an extra gear or three that she can use during emergencies. She has that certain look that some horses have when they came down the stretch. She gives the impression that what she does is easy for her; that her rivals are no match for her superior abilities and that she could dismiss them and defeat them whenever she pleases. Today’s race will be her first on dirt, and she must overcome Santa Anita’s speed bias, but if she is as good as she appears to be she will win with ease.
She will carry 122 pounds, top weight in this field. Trained by Mike Puype, she will be ridden by David Flores, who interestingly rode Zenyatta in her first three starts. Her workouts have been fabulous, with her most recent two being a seven-furlong work in 1:23 2/5 and a five-furlong breeze in :59 1/5. She is ready.
Finally, we come to Zazu. A daughter of Tapit, the gray/roan filly has only won once in five starts but has twice finished second in stakes races. She began her career by running second to stakes winner Tales in Excess in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. Stretched out to 6-1/2 furlongs in her second race, she drew off easily to win by 2 ¾ lengths. This strong effort earned her a start in the seven-furlong Moccasin Stakes, where she ran a strong second to Turbulent Descent. However, she was unable to match that performance three weeks later in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, where she ran a disappointing fifth while failing to present any rally whatsoever. However, this didn’t stop her from being sent off as the heavy favorite in the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes. Ridden by Joel Rosario for the first time, she dropped far off the pace before rallying furiously in the stretch, just failing to catch California Nectar by a neck. If she can turn in a similar late kick this afternoon, she should be able to finish in the money. Trained by John Sadler, she will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by John Sadler.
I have given this race considerable thought, and after considerable handicapping I have come up with these picks. . .
1 Turbulent Descent
2 California Nectar
3 Zazu
4 May Day Rose
5 Tiz the Route
6 Plum Pretty
Now don’t get me wrong – I can see Turbulent Descent getting upset. I’m sure she will handle dirt just fine, but with Santa Anita being so speed favoring I can see California Nectar or one of the other front-runners getting a loose lead and holding off the Mini-Zenyatta’s run in late stretch. However, you can bet that I will be cheering for Turbulent Descent in the same manner in which I cheered on Zenyatta when she charged down the stretch time after time.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
There are many other fascinating races for three-year-olds being run today, although none of them are graded.
Perhaps the most influential and promising of the lot is the third race at Gulfstream Park today, a nine furlong allowance race. It has drawn an evenly-matched field of six, with morning line odds ranging from 5-2 to 6-1. The morning line favorite is Shackleford, impressive winner of a maiden special weight last time out. Casper’s Touch is the 3-1 second choice. His last workout was sharp and he comes off of a sharp maiden special weight victory going a mile at Churchill Downs in November. Interestingly, the American-based colt has raced in England already, running third in weight-for-age race in June before coming back to the United States.
Also in the race are the promising sophomores El Grayling, Shadow Warrior, Strike Oil, and Fort Larned. It is a truly remarkable race!
At Fair Grounds there is a pair of interesting stakes races for three-year-olds. The first is the six-furlong Tiffany Lass Stakes for fillies. The favorite is Flash Mash, who is coming off of a six-placth finish in the My Trusty Cat Stakes. She has not been in good form lately, which leaves the race open for Wicked Deed to win. She won an allowance optional claiming race last time out, defeating Sam’s Bliss by a half-length. I feel that she’s ready to win today.
The other race is the Black Gold Stakes, a six-furlong event open to colts. Among the favorites are Divine Music, winner of an allowance optional claiming race last time out; Changing the Rules, who ran fourth in that same race; and Trubs, who comes off a pair of fourth-place finishes in stakes company. I believe that this race warrants close attention, for it appears as though some future stakes winners could emerge from this race.
At Aqueduct, there is the Whirlaway Stakes. Seven entered, but one has scratched. The morning line favorite I Rescind the Trade, who is undefeated in two starts. His most recent race was an allowance optional claiming race, which he won by a neck over Pants On Fire. Also defeated that day was J W Blue, who recently came back to impressively win an allowance race at Oaklawn.
J J’s Lucky Train, runner-up in the Count Fleet Stakes here last month, and Preachintothedevil, sharp winner of the Champagneforashley Stakes, should also be respected.
The WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park could also potentially turn out a Triple Crown runner. It drew a field of fourteen horses, but two scratches have reduced that number to twelve. Twinspired is the morning line favorite, although he has not hit the board since breaking his maiden four starts back. Banjammer should be primed for a sharp effort, as he comes off of a runner-up performance to Inhisglory in the Turfway Prevue Stakes, where he closed well to be beaten just a nose.
At Tampa Bay Downs, the race of interest is a sixth, a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight race. The colt I am watching is Adirondack Express, who comes off of a strong third in a maiden special weight about a month ago. He should be closing late.
Finally, there is the sixth race at Gulfstream Park. The morning line favorite is Queen’splatekitten, a Canadian-bred colt who broke his maiden with an incredible strong run in a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Woodbine. Four lengths behind, at the five-sixteenths pole, he drew off to win by a ridiculously easy 5 ¼ length victory. If he can produce a similar run today, he will win with ease.
As I said above, I will be live-updating throughout the day as these races are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE – Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I)
One Mile on the Main Track. For 3yo Fillies.
In my opinion, this race does not require handicapping. The results are obvious. The 4-5 morning line favorite is the undefeated Turbulent Descent, whom I have taken to calling the “Mini-Zenyatta.” In my opinion, it is not a question of if she can win, rather, it is a question of how many lengths will she win by?
It will be no small task to win. Many fine fillies are set to run against her, including California Nectar and Zazu. Also, this will be Turbulent Descent’s first start over a dirt surface, as her three previous starts have come over Hollywood Park’s synthetic Cushion Track.
But if she truly does deserve the nickname of “Mini-Zenyatta,” she will overcome it all.
Here are the runners. . .
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Plum Pretty (8-1)
2 Tiz the Route (20-1)
3 California Nectar (4-1)
4 May Day Rose (9-2)
5 Turbulent Descent (4-5)
6 Zazu (9-2)
There had been a seventh entry, Bluegrass Chatter, but she scratched.
Drawing the rail is Plum Pretty, who has had short but promising career thus far. A daughter of Medaglia d’Oro out of the A.P. Indy mare Liszy, Plum Pretty broke her maiden first time out going six furlongs during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park. It was a strong performance, one which warranted a step up in class. She was then entered in the Santa Ynez Stakes, where she ran third behind California Nectar and Zazu after stalking the pace. Trained by Bob Baffert, she is faced with the difficult task of taking this tough field wire-to-wire. Seeing that she weakened going seven furlongs last time out against these same fillies, I can’t see her holding on to win today. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Martin Garcia.
Longshot Tiz to Route drew gate two. Trained by Joe Herrick, I’m afraid that it is tough to make a case for her chances. The daughter of Tiznow finished fourth twice in maiden special weight company at Del Mar, although the horses that beat her included Tell a Kelly and Zazu. Given a bit of a break, she returned in December during the Hollywood Park meet and finished in a dead-heat for the win in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at odds of 16.80-1. Her task today will be difficult at best, although the fact that she is a front runner should help her chances over this speed-favoring Santa Anita main track. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by B. Blanc.
This brings us to California Nectar. The promising daughter of Stormy Atlantic is the most experienced of these six fillies, having started seven times already. She began her career by running in a pair of maiden special weight races at Del Mar, and apparently lacking any serious affinity for the surface, ran second both times.
She then came out for a six-furlong maiden special weight over the Hollywood Park Cushion Track during the Oak Tree meet. Sent off as the odds-on favorite, she won in wire-to-wire fashion while in hand late.
Twenty-seven days later California Nectar was entered in the Robert H. Walter California Cup Juvenile Fillies Stakes, which, perhaps, holds the record for the longest name of a horse race. Sent off as the heavy favorite, she ran second, beaten just a nose, in a three-horse photo finish. This strong performance warranted another step up in class, for her next start came in the Miesque Stakes, a grade III event at Hollywood Park. California Nectar turned in the poorest effort of her career that day, fading to finish fourth of seven although beaten only 3 ¼ lengths.
However, it was at this time that her career really took off. Tried over Santa Anita’s dirt main track for the first time when entered in the California Breeders’ Champion Stakes, she tracked odds-on favorite Teddy’s Promise for a half-mile before drawing away to win by a length and a quarter.
Her next start was even stronger. Sent off as the second choice in the Santa Ynez Stakes (gr. II), she went straight to the lead and held off favored Zazu in a thrilling finish, completing the seven-furlong event in 1:21.34. That was her most recent race.
If anyone is going to upset Turbulent Descent, I believe that it could be this filly. She is two-for-two over the Santa Anita main track and has the speed to kick clear in the stretch and hold off her rivals. Trained by Doug O’Neill, she will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Patrick Valenzuela.
May Day Rose drew gate five. The daughter of Rockport Harbor brings a strong resume into this race. She began her career by finishing a close second in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar. She then turned in a sharp performance in an identical event just thirteen days later, wiring the field as the odds-on favorite under Martin Garcia.
An attempt at a huge step up in class failed when she tired late in the stretch of the grade I Hollywood Starlet Stakes to finish fourth, beaten 3 ¼ lengths by Turbulent Descent. On the other hand, she was 1 ¾ lengths clear of Zazu that day.
Her most recent start came in the grade III Santa Ysabel Stakes. Sent off as the 1-20 favorite against only two other horses, she won by 1 ¼ lengths over Bluegrass Chatter in a performance that did not warrant odds of 1-20. Still, it was a graded stakes win, and should she get a loose lead this afternoon (which seems unlikely) she could hang around for a top three finish. Trained by Bob Baffert, she will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano and will carry 119 pounds. She worked a bullet half-mile breeze on February 2nd, getting the distance in :46 2/5.
This brings us to filly number five, the undefeated, brilliant, “Mini-Zenyatta.” Named Turbulent Descent, the daughter of Congrats is undefeated in three starts and looks like a future superstar. Her first start came in a six furlong maiden special weight race during the Oak Tree meet at Hollywood Park, where she easily to defeat Canadian Pride by three-quarters of a length in the sharp time of 1:09.90.
Her second start came in the seven-furlong Moccasin Stakes, a local prep for the prestigious Hollywood Starlet Stakes (gr. I). Sent off as the odd-one favorite, she effortlessly passed a fine filly in Zazu to win the race by 1 ½ lengths in 1:23.15.
She came out three weeks later for the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, where she would face grade I winner Tell a Kelly, as well as Zazu, Nine Fever, and May Day Rose.
Sent off as the favorite at 1.10-1, she sat four lengths off the pace. Then three. Then two. Then, with little urging, she drew away with ease to win by a length and a quarter.
In all three of her races she has given the impression that she has untapped talent; an extra gear or three that she can use during emergencies. She has that certain look that some horses have when they came down the stretch. She gives the impression that what she does is easy for her; that her rivals are no match for her superior abilities and that she could dismiss them and defeat them whenever she pleases. Today’s race will be her first on dirt, and she must overcome Santa Anita’s speed bias, but if she is as good as she appears to be she will win with ease.
She will carry 122 pounds, top weight in this field. Trained by Mike Puype, she will be ridden by David Flores, who interestingly rode Zenyatta in her first three starts. Her workouts have been fabulous, with her most recent two being a seven-furlong work in 1:23 2/5 and a five-furlong breeze in :59 1/5. She is ready.
Finally, we come to Zazu. A daughter of Tapit, the gray/roan filly has only won once in five starts but has twice finished second in stakes races. She began her career by running second to stakes winner Tales in Excess in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight. Stretched out to 6-1/2 furlongs in her second race, she drew off easily to win by 2 ¾ lengths. This strong effort earned her a start in the seven-furlong Moccasin Stakes, where she ran a strong second to Turbulent Descent. However, she was unable to match that performance three weeks later in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, where she ran a disappointing fifth while failing to present any rally whatsoever. However, this didn’t stop her from being sent off as the heavy favorite in the grade II Santa Ynez Stakes. Ridden by Joel Rosario for the first time, she dropped far off the pace before rallying furiously in the stretch, just failing to catch California Nectar by a neck. If she can turn in a similar late kick this afternoon, she should be able to finish in the money. Trained by John Sadler, she will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by John Sadler.
I have given this race considerable thought, and after considerable handicapping I have come up with these picks. . .
1 Turbulent Descent
2 California Nectar
3 Zazu
4 May Day Rose
5 Tiz the Route
6 Plum Pretty
Now don’t get me wrong – I can see Turbulent Descent getting upset. I’m sure she will handle dirt just fine, but with Santa Anita being so speed favoring I can see California Nectar or one of the other front-runners getting a loose lead and holding off the Mini-Zenyatta’s run in late stretch. However, you can bet that I will be cheering for Turbulent Descent in the same manner in which I cheered on Zenyatta when she charged down the stretch time after time.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
There are many other fascinating races for three-year-olds being run today, although none of them are graded.
Perhaps the most influential and promising of the lot is the third race at Gulfstream Park today, a nine furlong allowance race. It has drawn an evenly-matched field of six, with morning line odds ranging from 5-2 to 6-1. The morning line favorite is Shackleford, impressive winner of a maiden special weight last time out. Casper’s Touch is the 3-1 second choice. His last workout was sharp and he comes off of a sharp maiden special weight victory going a mile at Churchill Downs in November. Interestingly, the American-based colt has raced in England already, running third in weight-for-age race in June before coming back to the United States.
Also in the race are the promising sophomores El Grayling, Shadow Warrior, Strike Oil, and Fort Larned. It is a truly remarkable race!
At Fair Grounds there is a pair of interesting stakes races for three-year-olds. The first is the six-furlong Tiffany Lass Stakes for fillies. The favorite is Flash Mash, who is coming off of a six-placth finish in the My Trusty Cat Stakes. She has not been in good form lately, which leaves the race open for Wicked Deed to win. She won an allowance optional claiming race last time out, defeating Sam’s Bliss by a half-length. I feel that she’s ready to win today.
The other race is the Black Gold Stakes, a six-furlong event open to colts. Among the favorites are Divine Music, winner of an allowance optional claiming race last time out; Changing the Rules, who ran fourth in that same race; and Trubs, who comes off a pair of fourth-place finishes in stakes company. I believe that this race warrants close attention, for it appears as though some future stakes winners could emerge from this race.
At Aqueduct, there is the Whirlaway Stakes. Seven entered, but one has scratched. The morning line favorite I Rescind the Trade, who is undefeated in two starts. His most recent race was an allowance optional claiming race, which he won by a neck over Pants On Fire. Also defeated that day was J W Blue, who recently came back to impressively win an allowance race at Oaklawn.
J J’s Lucky Train, runner-up in the Count Fleet Stakes here last month, and Preachintothedevil, sharp winner of the Champagneforashley Stakes, should also be respected.
The WEBN Stakes at Turfway Park could also potentially turn out a Triple Crown runner. It drew a field of fourteen horses, but two scratches have reduced that number to twelve. Twinspired is the morning line favorite, although he has not hit the board since breaking his maiden four starts back. Banjammer should be primed for a sharp effort, as he comes off of a runner-up performance to Inhisglory in the Turfway Prevue Stakes, where he closed well to be beaten just a nose.
At Tampa Bay Downs, the race of interest is a sixth, a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight race. The colt I am watching is Adirondack Express, who comes off of a strong third in a maiden special weight about a month ago. He should be closing late.
Finally, there is the sixth race at Gulfstream Park. The morning line favorite is Queen’splatekitten, a Canadian-bred colt who broke his maiden with an incredible strong run in a mile and a sixteenth maiden special weight at Woodbine. Four lengths behind, at the five-sixteenths pole, he drew off to win by a ridiculously easy 5 ¼ length victory. If he can produce a similar run today, he will win with ease.
As I said above, I will be live-updating throughout the day as these races are run. Enjoy!
-Keelerman
Saturday, January 15, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- January 15th, 2011
As promised, here is the second part of yesterday's post, this one concerning all of the three-year-old stakes races to be run on Sunday and Monday. As I wrote about this week's feature race in my last post, this post shall not include one. I shall merely continue to briefly mention all of the stakes races which I failed to discuss on my last post.
I shall begin with Sunday's races; then move on to Monday's. Enjoy!
SUNDAY, JANUARY 16th
There are three races on Sunday that merit attention, and I must admit that each and every one of them is worth noting.
The first race is the Dania Beach Stakes, a one-mile turf event at Gulfstream Park. A field of ten has entered, with the mild morning line favorite being Lil Bit O'Fun. The son of Langfuhr out of Dash of Humor has won two of his three starts, never finishing worse than second. He broke his maiden first time out going 5-1/2 furlongs by nearly four lengths. He then ran second in a one-mile turf allowance race at Keeneland, finishing five lengths behind the nice colt Banned while beating good colts like Grant Jack and El Grayling. In his final start, he won a one-mile turf allowance race at Churchill Downs by 2 1/2 lengths. This will be his first start since November 7th, but he should be in contention coming down the stretch.
Swift Warrior is the second choice, based off of his decent third in the Tropical Park Derby on January 1st. The late-running son of First Samurai out of Afleet Summer needs a good pace in front of him to set up his charge. Fortunately, a strong pace seems like a possibility tomorrow.
Adirondack Summer is another horse that interests me. He has made two starts, winning a maiden special weight first time out before finishing second in a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct. On that day, he was bumped and squeezed in the stretch yet still managed to rally strongly enough to finish second. With a cleaner trip tomorrow, he might be able to pull off a victory.
The second race of note is the second race at Santa Anita, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds. Luckarack, who drew the rail, could end up being one of the favorites. He won his first three starts, consisting of a maiden claiming race, the Everett Nevin Alameda County Stakes at Pleasanton, and the Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes. However, he has turned in three consecutive off-the-board performances since then, including a seventh-place finish in the Gold Rush Stakes as the favorite last time out.
Chiloquin should also be well-bet, based off of his solid victory in a six-furlong starter allowance race at Hollywood Park.
I wouldn't ignore Drink at Buster's either, who finished a deceivingly good fourth in a 5-1/2 furlong allowance race last time out off of a long layoff. Don't be surprised if he runs better tomorrow.
The final race of note on Sunday is the eighth race at Fair Grounds, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Sam's Bliss, who broke her maiden last time out going 5-1/2 furlongs on the turf. She finished a good third going six-furlongs on dirt in his last start and should run a good race.
The second choice is Wicked Deed, who turned in a jaw-dropping late run to win a maiden special weight last time out. Two lengths behind the leader at the eighth pole, she rocketed past to win by slightly more than six lengths. I believe that with a solid pace to chase we will see a similar performance tomorrow.
Ellusive Wildcat, the third choice, could also turn in a good rally. From three starts, she has a win, a second, and a third. In her last start, a 5-1/2 furlong turf allowance race, she rallied from last of six to finish second. I will be watching her run tomorrow closely.
MONDAY, JANUARY 17th
Three stakes races for three-year-olds are scheduled to be run on Monday: the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct, the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita. All have drawn fascinating fields which warrant close attention.
The six-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes has drawn a field of six runners, with the narrow morning line favorite being Rift, who drew the rail. He has made three starts, all of them in maiden special weight company and all of them coming at Aqueduct. He began his career in a 5-1/2 furlong event, running second as the even-money favorite. He then finished second once again in a six-furlong race, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths after leading at the eighth pole.
He finally broke through with a victory in his most recent start, a six-furlong maiden race. Sent off as the odds-one favorite, he broke well, took the lead, and never looked back en route to a 1 1/4 length triumph. It was a very strong performance; one which makes him the deserving favorite here.
The second choice at 9-5 is Fort Hughes, who began his career impressively by winning the 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight in which Rift finished second. The margin of victory was 5 1/2 lengths, which earned him a start in the Southhampton Stakes at Parx Racing. He made a very good run from fourth, but failed to catch Royal Currier by a head. I really like his chances here and believe that he can upset Rift.
Royal Currier is back to try and beat Fort Hughes again. He drew gate three and is the 4-1 third choice. However, I doubt that he will hold off Fort Hughes today.
The 6-1/2 furlong San Pedro Stakes drew seven runners, all of them filled to the brim with untapped potential. There are many that I will be watching, including Industry Leader, who drew the rail. He broke his maiden by 2 1/4 lengths first time out, defeating Pride of Silver, who will be running in the Sham Stakes on Saturday. He then ran second in the Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III), a solid performance which warranted a step up in class to the grade I CashCall Futurity. Sent off at about 7-1, he ran a disappointing ninth. He is taking a step down in class here and should run better in this spot.
However, the colt that I really have my eye on is Sinai. On December 18th, he turned in a dominating wire-to-wire victory in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood Park, turning back the challenge of Arousal in the stretch to win by two lengths. His workouts have been very good and if he can handle dirt he could turn into a very nice Triple Crown contender.
I will also be watching Indian Winter. The highly-promising colt won a six-furlong maiden special weight on August 21st at Del Mar. Sent off as the 6-1 third choice in the grade I Del Mar Futurity, he was forced to steady at the three-eighths pole but still managed to finish in a dead-heat for third. If he runs well on Monday, then he could become a legitimate Santa Anita Derby contender.
Arcadian is the final horse that I shall note. He is undefeated in two starts, having won a maiden optional claiming event at Turf Paradise by six lengths before easily dominating the 6-1/2 furlong Lost in the Fog Juvenile Stakes at that same track, drawing off to a 6 1/2 length victory in a sharp final time.
On January 10th, he worked six furlongs in 1:10 2/5 handily at Turf Paradise, which seems to signal that he is ready for an impressive performance.
Finally, we come to the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. It has drawn a field of seven, from which two horses have caught my eye.
The first is Archarcharch, who broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes last time out. It was a very good effort and he strikes me as a colt that is loaded with stamina and should relish additional distance.
The other colt is Grant Jack, a winner of two of his six starts. Last time out, he upset the Springboard Mile Stakes at odds of 14.40-1. If he runs as well on Monday as he did on that day, he can win this race.
Dreaminofthewin is another notable colt. He won a maiden special weight second time out before winning a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race. He seems to be rapidly improving and may have a good chance at winning this race.
And that is all. It took thousands of words, but I believe that I have at least briefly mentioned every race of note for three-year-olds being run over the next few days.
On a side note, Blind Luck, last year's champion three-year-old filly, will be running in the El Encino Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Sunday. She will be facing Champagne d'Oro, a two-time grade I winner, and Malibu Pier, who finished a good second in the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) last month. Don’t miss it!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
I shall begin with Sunday's races; then move on to Monday's. Enjoy!
SUNDAY, JANUARY 16th
There are three races on Sunday that merit attention, and I must admit that each and every one of them is worth noting.
The first race is the Dania Beach Stakes, a one-mile turf event at Gulfstream Park. A field of ten has entered, with the mild morning line favorite being Lil Bit O'Fun. The son of Langfuhr out of Dash of Humor has won two of his three starts, never finishing worse than second. He broke his maiden first time out going 5-1/2 furlongs by nearly four lengths. He then ran second in a one-mile turf allowance race at Keeneland, finishing five lengths behind the nice colt Banned while beating good colts like Grant Jack and El Grayling. In his final start, he won a one-mile turf allowance race at Churchill Downs by 2 1/2 lengths. This will be his first start since November 7th, but he should be in contention coming down the stretch.
Swift Warrior is the second choice, based off of his decent third in the Tropical Park Derby on January 1st. The late-running son of First Samurai out of Afleet Summer needs a good pace in front of him to set up his charge. Fortunately, a strong pace seems like a possibility tomorrow.
Adirondack Summer is another horse that interests me. He has made two starts, winning a maiden special weight first time out before finishing second in a one-mile allowance race at Aqueduct. On that day, he was bumped and squeezed in the stretch yet still managed to rally strongly enough to finish second. With a cleaner trip tomorrow, he might be able to pull off a victory.
The second race of note is the second race at Santa Anita, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-olds. Luckarack, who drew the rail, could end up being one of the favorites. He won his first three starts, consisting of a maiden claiming race, the Everett Nevin Alameda County Stakes at Pleasanton, and the Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes. However, he has turned in three consecutive off-the-board performances since then, including a seventh-place finish in the Gold Rush Stakes as the favorite last time out.
Chiloquin should also be well-bet, based off of his solid victory in a six-furlong starter allowance race at Hollywood Park.
I wouldn't ignore Drink at Buster's either, who finished a deceivingly good fourth in a 5-1/2 furlong allowance race last time out off of a long layoff. Don't be surprised if he runs better tomorrow.
The final race of note on Sunday is the eighth race at Fair Grounds, a six-furlong allowance optional claiming event for three-year-old fillies. The morning line favorite is Sam's Bliss, who broke her maiden last time out going 5-1/2 furlongs on the turf. She finished a good third going six-furlongs on dirt in his last start and should run a good race.
The second choice is Wicked Deed, who turned in a jaw-dropping late run to win a maiden special weight last time out. Two lengths behind the leader at the eighth pole, she rocketed past to win by slightly more than six lengths. I believe that with a solid pace to chase we will see a similar performance tomorrow.
Ellusive Wildcat, the third choice, could also turn in a good rally. From three starts, she has a win, a second, and a third. In her last start, a 5-1/2 furlong turf allowance race, she rallied from last of six to finish second. I will be watching her run tomorrow closely.
MONDAY, JANUARY 17th
Three stakes races for three-year-olds are scheduled to be run on Monday: the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes at Aqueduct, the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and the San Pedro Stakes at Santa Anita. All have drawn fascinating fields which warrant close attention.
The six-furlong Jimmy Winkfield Stakes has drawn a field of six runners, with the narrow morning line favorite being Rift, who drew the rail. He has made three starts, all of them in maiden special weight company and all of them coming at Aqueduct. He began his career in a 5-1/2 furlong event, running second as the even-money favorite. He then finished second once again in a six-furlong race, beaten just 1 1/4 lengths after leading at the eighth pole.
He finally broke through with a victory in his most recent start, a six-furlong maiden race. Sent off as the odds-one favorite, he broke well, took the lead, and never looked back en route to a 1 1/4 length triumph. It was a very strong performance; one which makes him the deserving favorite here.
The second choice at 9-5 is Fort Hughes, who began his career impressively by winning the 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight in which Rift finished second. The margin of victory was 5 1/2 lengths, which earned him a start in the Southhampton Stakes at Parx Racing. He made a very good run from fourth, but failed to catch Royal Currier by a head. I really like his chances here and believe that he can upset Rift.
Royal Currier is back to try and beat Fort Hughes again. He drew gate three and is the 4-1 third choice. However, I doubt that he will hold off Fort Hughes today.
The 6-1/2 furlong San Pedro Stakes drew seven runners, all of them filled to the brim with untapped potential. There are many that I will be watching, including Industry Leader, who drew the rail. He broke his maiden by 2 1/4 lengths first time out, defeating Pride of Silver, who will be running in the Sham Stakes on Saturday. He then ran second in the Premier Pegasus in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III), a solid performance which warranted a step up in class to the grade I CashCall Futurity. Sent off at about 7-1, he ran a disappointing ninth. He is taking a step down in class here and should run better in this spot.
However, the colt that I really have my eye on is Sinai. On December 18th, he turned in a dominating wire-to-wire victory in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood Park, turning back the challenge of Arousal in the stretch to win by two lengths. His workouts have been very good and if he can handle dirt he could turn into a very nice Triple Crown contender.
I will also be watching Indian Winter. The highly-promising colt won a six-furlong maiden special weight on August 21st at Del Mar. Sent off as the 6-1 third choice in the grade I Del Mar Futurity, he was forced to steady at the three-eighths pole but still managed to finish in a dead-heat for third. If he runs well on Monday, then he could become a legitimate Santa Anita Derby contender.
Arcadian is the final horse that I shall note. He is undefeated in two starts, having won a maiden optional claiming event at Turf Paradise by six lengths before easily dominating the 6-1/2 furlong Lost in the Fog Juvenile Stakes at that same track, drawing off to a 6 1/2 length victory in a sharp final time.
On January 10th, he worked six furlongs in 1:10 2/5 handily at Turf Paradise, which seems to signal that he is ready for an impressive performance.
Finally, we come to the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. It has drawn a field of seven, from which two horses have caught my eye.
The first is Archarcharch, who broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes last time out. It was a very good effort and he strikes me as a colt that is loaded with stamina and should relish additional distance.
The other colt is Grant Jack, a winner of two of his six starts. Last time out, he upset the Springboard Mile Stakes at odds of 14.40-1. If he runs as well on Monday as he did on that day, he can win this race.
Dreaminofthewin is another notable colt. He won a maiden special weight second time out before winning a one-mile and seventy yards allowance optional claiming race. He seems to be rapidly improving and may have a good chance at winning this race.
And that is all. It took thousands of words, but I believe that I have at least briefly mentioned every race of note for three-year-olds being run over the next few days.
On a side note, Blind Luck, last year's champion three-year-old filly, will be running in the El Encino Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on Sunday. She will be facing Champagne d'Oro, a two-time grade I winner, and Malibu Pier, who finished a good second in the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) last month. Don’t miss it!
Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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