Justin Phillip showed a new dimension in the $250,000 Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon at Belmont Park, going straight to the lead and turning back all challenges en route to a decisive victory in the seven furlong event.
Under Ramon Dominguez, Justin Phillip battled for the early lead with Derivitave and Travelin Man. Arch Traveler and J J's Lucky Train were biding their time far off the pace. The opening fractions were :22.23 and :44.45, after which Justin Phillip began to pour it on and draw away from his rivals. Arch Traveler and J J's Lucky Train made mild late bids, but neither threatened the impressive winner, who won by several lengths in the sharp time of 1:23 2/5.
J J's Lucky Train finished a head in front of Arch Traveler, with Travelin Man and Derivative completing the order of finish.
-Keelerman
Showing posts with label Travelin Man. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Travelin Man. Show all posts
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Woody Stephens Stakes Analysis
It's currently just a few minutes until post time for the third stakes race of the Belmont card, the seven furlong Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. II) for three-year-olds.
The favorite is currently Arch Traveler at 8-5, with Travelin Man 2-1.
Here are my picks:
1 Justin Phillip
2 J J's Lucky Train
3 Arch Traveler
And J.R.'s picks:
1 J J's Lucky Train
2 Justin Phillip
3 Travelin Man
I feel that Justin Phillip will relish the cut back in distance from the nine furlong Peter Pan Stakes and will turn in a dominating performance. J.R. is confident that Justin Phillip will run well too, but feels that J J's Lucky Train will run better. Neither of us feel that Travelin Man will win from gate one, where he will likely have to be sent hard to the lead.
-Keelerman
The favorite is currently Arch Traveler at 8-5, with Travelin Man 2-1.
Here are my picks:
1 Justin Phillip
2 J J's Lucky Train
3 Arch Traveler
And J.R.'s picks:
1 J J's Lucky Train
2 Justin Phillip
3 Travelin Man
I feel that Justin Phillip will relish the cut back in distance from the nine furlong Peter Pan Stakes and will turn in a dominating performance. J.R. is confident that Justin Phillip will run well too, but feels that J J's Lucky Train will run better. Neither of us feel that Travelin Man will win from gate one, where he will likely have to be sent hard to the lead.
-Keelerman
Saturday, April 09, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- April 8th, 2011
Here are some quick recaps of last weekend’s racing action. I’ll be posting my thoughts on the Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Illinois Derby, and all of the other great upcoming races soon. Enjoy!
FEATURE RACE RECAP ---- Florida Derby (gr. I)
The $1,000,000 Florida Derby provided some truly stunning results. No, it wasn’t that the winner was a huge longshot – on the contrary, 2.90-1-shot Dialed In proved victorious. It was the remainder of the results that were shocking.
In a field of eight horses, favored Soldat broke quickest from the inside post position. To Honor and Serve, Arch Traveler, and Shackleford were also out quickly. Breaking slowest was Dialed In, who dropped back to last right after the start and remained there for the opening part of the race.
After an opening quarter mile in a quick :23.30, 68.90-1 shot Shackleford was leading the way by a half-length. To Honor and Serve was right there in second, with Flashpoint tracking the pace in third while three wide. Arch Traveler, Stay Thirsty, and Soldat were back in fourth, fifth, and sixth respectively, all very close together. Then came Bowman’s Causeway, who was only three lengths from the front. Dialed In? He was six lengths behind Bowman’s Causewaw — in last.
The positions remained virtually unchanged through a half-mile in :46.35, with Shackleford still going strong on the lead with To Honor and Serve pushing him along. But things began to change quickly after that. Flashpoint and Soldat began to inch closer to the lead. Arch Traveler, Stay Thirsty, and Bowman’s Causeway began to drop back. And Dialed In was starting a tremendous run on the far outside.
Rounding the far turn, Dialed In swept into contention under rider Julien Leparoux. Giant strides carried him closer and closer to the lead.
And who was on the lead? It was not To Honor and Serve. He was beginning to tire. Soldat? No, he never reached contention. Flashpoint? He was tiring too.
Instead, it was Shackleford who found another gear at the top of the stretch and kicked clear from the field. A tremendous upset loomed as the eight sophomores charged down the Gulfstream Park homestretch.
But Dialed In kept closing. Every stride brought him closer to the tremendous longshot Shackleford; closer and closer to victory. But Shackleford, despite drifting in the stretch, was clinging tenaciously to the lead.
It took Dialed In just about every foot of the Gulfstream homestretch to catch Shackleford. But he did so in the final strides, hitting the wire a head in front in one of the most remarkable efforts of the year.
Give credit to Shackleford, who rebounded off of his poor showing in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) to run the race of his life. To Honor and Serve tired in the stretch to finish a distant third, with Flashpoint coming home eight lengths behind Dialed In for fourth.
Very disappointing was Soldat, who never got into contention while finishing fifth. A number of things may have brought on this poor performance; perhaps he didn’t like having dirt being kicked in his face. But it’s never good to run that poorly in your final Derby prep.
Stay Thirsty was also disappointing, showing nothing while finishing seventh of eighth. Like Soldat, he probably had a very legitimate excuse for running so poorly, but it’s hard to like him in the Kentucky Derby off of a performance like that.
The complete results were:
1 Dialed In
2 Shackleford
3 To Honor and Serve
4 Flashpoint
5 Soldat
6 Arch Traveler
7 Stay Thirsty
8 Bowman’s Causeway
My picks were:
1 Dialed In
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Stay Thirsty
4 Soldat
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Flashpoint
7 Shackleford
8 Arch Traveler
J.R.’s picks were:
1 Stay Thirsty
2 Bowman’s Causeway
3 Soldat
4 To Honor and Serve
5 Dialed In
6 Arch Traveler
7 Flashpoint
8 Shackleford
Neither of us did very well, but at least I picked the winner!
OTHER RACE RESULTS
April 3rd
• The Swale Stakes (gr. II) on the undercard of the Florida Derby went as expected, with odds-on favorite Travelin Man drawing away to win the seven-furlong event by two lengths. Ridden by John Velazquez, Travelin Man rated just off of the early pace before taking the lead passing the eighth pole to easily win the race. Indiano came on well to finish second, just nosing out Little Drama. The final time was 1:21.94.
• The third race at Aqueduct yielded surprising results. In a four-horse field, longshot Joe Corrigan pulled away in the stretch to win by a neck over 1-4 favorite Break Up the Game. The latter, only three-years-old compared to six-year-old Joe Corrigan, closed strongly but was unable to make up the necessary ground. The final time in the one-mile allowance race as 1:39.66.
• The third race at Santa Anita Park was equally intriguing. A one-mile allowance optional claiming event, second choice Uncle Sam won the race by a neck in wire-to-wire fashion. 30-1 shot Clarke Lane closed from last – and 7 ¾ lengths behind at the eighth pole – to finish second. Chiloquin finished third, while odds-on favorite Wilburn finished a disappointing fifth. The final time was 1:36.28.
April 8th
• On opening day at Keeneland, in the grade III Transylvania Stakes, Air Support closed from way, way back to win by a nose over Great Mills. Ridden by Rajiv Maragh, he closed from about fifteen lengths behind to upset at 10.60-1. Great Mills set a very fast pace of :22.71 and :46.35 before tiring just a bit in the final strides. Adirondack Summer closed from six lengths behind at the eighth pole to be beaten just a neck. Pluck, winner of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II), never got involved while finishing seventh. The final time in the mile and a sixteenth event was 1:41.99.
• Also on opening day at Keeneland, the very promising Casper’s Touch won a seven furlong allowance race by three lengths. Under Alan Garcia, he sat just a few lengths off of the early pace before drawing away to win impressively. The Man Uptown ran second, followed by Humble and Hungry. Favored Elusive Action finished seventh.
-Keelerman
FEATURE RACE RECAP ---- Florida Derby (gr. I)
The $1,000,000 Florida Derby provided some truly stunning results. No, it wasn’t that the winner was a huge longshot – on the contrary, 2.90-1-shot Dialed In proved victorious. It was the remainder of the results that were shocking.
In a field of eight horses, favored Soldat broke quickest from the inside post position. To Honor and Serve, Arch Traveler, and Shackleford were also out quickly. Breaking slowest was Dialed In, who dropped back to last right after the start and remained there for the opening part of the race.
After an opening quarter mile in a quick :23.30, 68.90-1 shot Shackleford was leading the way by a half-length. To Honor and Serve was right there in second, with Flashpoint tracking the pace in third while three wide. Arch Traveler, Stay Thirsty, and Soldat were back in fourth, fifth, and sixth respectively, all very close together. Then came Bowman’s Causeway, who was only three lengths from the front. Dialed In? He was six lengths behind Bowman’s Causewaw — in last.
The positions remained virtually unchanged through a half-mile in :46.35, with Shackleford still going strong on the lead with To Honor and Serve pushing him along. But things began to change quickly after that. Flashpoint and Soldat began to inch closer to the lead. Arch Traveler, Stay Thirsty, and Bowman’s Causeway began to drop back. And Dialed In was starting a tremendous run on the far outside.
Rounding the far turn, Dialed In swept into contention under rider Julien Leparoux. Giant strides carried him closer and closer to the lead.
And who was on the lead? It was not To Honor and Serve. He was beginning to tire. Soldat? No, he never reached contention. Flashpoint? He was tiring too.
Instead, it was Shackleford who found another gear at the top of the stretch and kicked clear from the field. A tremendous upset loomed as the eight sophomores charged down the Gulfstream Park homestretch.
But Dialed In kept closing. Every stride brought him closer to the tremendous longshot Shackleford; closer and closer to victory. But Shackleford, despite drifting in the stretch, was clinging tenaciously to the lead.
It took Dialed In just about every foot of the Gulfstream homestretch to catch Shackleford. But he did so in the final strides, hitting the wire a head in front in one of the most remarkable efforts of the year.
Give credit to Shackleford, who rebounded off of his poor showing in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) to run the race of his life. To Honor and Serve tired in the stretch to finish a distant third, with Flashpoint coming home eight lengths behind Dialed In for fourth.
Very disappointing was Soldat, who never got into contention while finishing fifth. A number of things may have brought on this poor performance; perhaps he didn’t like having dirt being kicked in his face. But it’s never good to run that poorly in your final Derby prep.
Stay Thirsty was also disappointing, showing nothing while finishing seventh of eighth. Like Soldat, he probably had a very legitimate excuse for running so poorly, but it’s hard to like him in the Kentucky Derby off of a performance like that.
The complete results were:
1 Dialed In
2 Shackleford
3 To Honor and Serve
4 Flashpoint
5 Soldat
6 Arch Traveler
7 Stay Thirsty
8 Bowman’s Causeway
My picks were:
1 Dialed In
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Stay Thirsty
4 Soldat
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Flashpoint
7 Shackleford
8 Arch Traveler
J.R.’s picks were:
1 Stay Thirsty
2 Bowman’s Causeway
3 Soldat
4 To Honor and Serve
5 Dialed In
6 Arch Traveler
7 Flashpoint
8 Shackleford
Neither of us did very well, but at least I picked the winner!
OTHER RACE RESULTS
April 3rd
• The Swale Stakes (gr. II) on the undercard of the Florida Derby went as expected, with odds-on favorite Travelin Man drawing away to win the seven-furlong event by two lengths. Ridden by John Velazquez, Travelin Man rated just off of the early pace before taking the lead passing the eighth pole to easily win the race. Indiano came on well to finish second, just nosing out Little Drama. The final time was 1:21.94.
• The third race at Aqueduct yielded surprising results. In a four-horse field, longshot Joe Corrigan pulled away in the stretch to win by a neck over 1-4 favorite Break Up the Game. The latter, only three-years-old compared to six-year-old Joe Corrigan, closed strongly but was unable to make up the necessary ground. The final time in the one-mile allowance race as 1:39.66.
• The third race at Santa Anita Park was equally intriguing. A one-mile allowance optional claiming event, second choice Uncle Sam won the race by a neck in wire-to-wire fashion. 30-1 shot Clarke Lane closed from last – and 7 ¾ lengths behind at the eighth pole – to finish second. Chiloquin finished third, while odds-on favorite Wilburn finished a disappointing fifth. The final time was 1:36.28.
April 8th
• On opening day at Keeneland, in the grade III Transylvania Stakes, Air Support closed from way, way back to win by a nose over Great Mills. Ridden by Rajiv Maragh, he closed from about fifteen lengths behind to upset at 10.60-1. Great Mills set a very fast pace of :22.71 and :46.35 before tiring just a bit in the final strides. Adirondack Summer closed from six lengths behind at the eighth pole to be beaten just a neck. Pluck, winner of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II), never got involved while finishing seventh. The final time in the mile and a sixteenth event was 1:41.99.
• Also on opening day at Keeneland, the very promising Casper’s Touch won a seven furlong allowance race by three lengths. Under Alan Garcia, he sat just a few lengths off of the early pace before drawing away to win impressively. The Man Uptown ran second, followed by Humble and Hungry. Favored Elusive Action finished seventh.
-Keelerman
Sunday, April 03, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- April 3rd, 2011
Today is arguably the biggest day for three-year-olds so far this year, for today is the day of the Florida Derby -- in which Soldat, To Honor and Serve, Stay Thirsty, and Dialed In battle it out over a mile and an eighth for the winner's share of a $1,000,000 purse. Not only that, the winner will likely head to Louisville as one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Maybe even THE favorite, if Uncle Mo and The Factor were to fail in their final prep races.
That's why this week's feature race is the Florida Derby.
FEATURE RACE: Florida Derby (gr. I)
$1,000,000 Purse, Nine Furlongs, Gulfstream Park Main Track
Five weeks until the Kentucky Derby -- just five. It's hard to believe that it's nearly here. It seems like just yesterday we were analyzing the Count Fleet Stakes, and the Sham Stakes. . . yet that was months ago.
The Florida Derby has been doing very well in producing Derby contenders in recent years. Last year, Florida Derby winner Ice Box ran second in the Kentucky Derby. In 2008, Big Brown won the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro did the same in 2006.
Based on these facts alone, whoever wins this year's Florida Derby should have an excellent shot at performing admirably in the Kentucky Derby. And then when you consider the quality of this year's field, I would not be surprised at all if one of them went on to win the Run for the Roses.
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Soldat 9-5
2 To Honor and Serve 4-1
3 Arch Traveler 20-1
4 Bowman's Causeway 20-1
5 Shackleford 20-1
6 Stay Thirsty 8-1
7 Dialed In 2-1
8 Flashpoint 6-1
All will carry 122 pounds.
Soldat, the morning line favorite, has drawn the rail. The son of War Front has proven to be extremely versatile throughout his career. He has graded stakes victories on dirt and turf. He run well on the lead and coming from off the pace. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the marvelous colt is coming off of two consecutive victories. The first was a nine furlong allowance race over a sloppy, sealed Gulfstream Park main track. He won by 10 3/4 lengths and earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure. His next race was the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), where he kicked clear of the highly regarded To Honor and Serve on the far turn to win by two lengths. To be ridden by Alan Garcia, I would not be surprised to see the colt just off the pace today, perhaps racing along in second or third in the early going.
To Honor and Serve has drawn gate two. The colt was a brilliant juvenile, sweeping to easy victories in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last fall at Aqueduct. However, he was very disappointing in his 2011 debut, tiring on the far turn to finish a distant third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Trained by Bill Mott, he should be considerably sharper this time around and the son of Bernardini should be right in contention in the homestretch. He has some good tactical speed and should be able to get himself into a very good position early on. Garrett Gomez will ride the chestnut colt for the first time.
Arch Traveler is an intriguing contender. He broke his maiden third time out going seven furlongs in 1:22 1/5. His next start was his first two-turn race. Although he did win -- by three-quarters of a length over Nacho Business -- he ran the race in 1:52 1/5 and was drifting in the stretch. I have the suspicion that he may be more effective sprinting, but he definitely deserves a chance to prove himself under these circumstances. Trained by James Jerkens, the son of Sky Mesa will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.
In gate four we find Bowman's Causeway, a very promising son of Giant's Causeway who looks to have a bright future. In his first start, he finished third in a maiden special weight behind Mucho Macho Man and Bellamy's Boss. In his second start he was narrowly beaten by Nacho Business. Finally, he broke his maiden on February 11th, winning a nine furlong maiden special weight by a length. Fifteen days later he ran in the Fountain of Youth, where he finished fourth after a rough trip. In his most recent start, a March 19th one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream, he ran a close third behind a very promising pair in Dance City and Cal Nation. I feel that Bowman's Causeway is a true two-turn colt, and that he wants to go long -- a mile and a quarter, maybe even a mile and a half. The Fountain of Youth may be too short for him. But I doubt that he will be tiring at the finish. Trained by Patrick Biancone, Paco Lopez has the mount.
Shackleford is another longshot who may be a bit overlooked. He broke his maiden impressively second time out, winning a seven furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by a very game performance. In his 2011 debut, he pulled away from Casper's Touch and El Grayling in deep stretch to win a nine furlong allowance race by 2 1/4 lengths. Entered in the Fountain of Youth, he was caught wide and finished a disappointing fifth. With a better trip, I expect him to run considerably better today. The son of Forestry is trained by Dale Romans and will be ridden by J. Castanon.
This brings us to Stay Thirsty, who has drawn gate six. The son of Bernardini has proven to be very consistent throughout his five-race career. In his first start, he was beaten two lengths going 5-1/2 furlongs by a nice colt in Sovereign Default. He then won a six furlong maiden special weight by 5 1/2 lengths. Entered in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) against the magnificent Boys at Tosconova, he fought well to finish second, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths. An attempt at winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile yielded less: a distant fifth place finish, but he was only beaten by four lengths for third. He was then put away for the year, returning on March 5th to make his 2011 debut in the Gotham Stakes. In that race, he was caught wide on both turns but still drew off strongly to win by 3 1/4 lengths. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the well-bred colt should be able to stay all day. But he has been known to drift in the stretch, so I would like to see him stay a bit straighter today. Ramon Dominguez will ride.
In gate seven is Dialed In, one of the most promising three-year-olds in the country. He broke his maiden first time out going 6-1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, rallying through traffic from far back to win the race by a half-length. His second start came in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) against the likes of Sweet Ducky, Gourmet Dinner, and Mucho Macho Man. He won in impressive fashion, charging from way back to win by 1 1/2 lengths. His third and most recent start came in a nine furlong allowance race against older horses, where his late run was compromised by a very slow pace. He still managed to rally well to be beaten only a 1/2 length by a good four-year-old in Equestrio. Trained by Nick Zito, the son of Mineshaft needs only a quick pace to be able to win this race. Julien Leparoux will ride the dark bay colt.
Finally, we come to the undefeated and brilliant Flashpoint. A son of Pomeroy, he broke his maiden first time out at Aqueduct, running six furlongs in 1:09 3/5 en route to a 6 1/4 length triumph. His second start came in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth. In that race, he dueled early with heavily favored Travelin Man before putting that one away and drawing off to a breathtaking 7 1/4 length victory. He stopped the clock in 1:22 flat and earned a Beyer speed figure of 102. Now, this will be his first start beyond seven furlongs, and he must overcome the far outside post position. It will not be easy at all. But if he wins, expect him to shoot to near the top of everyone's lists of Kentucky Derby contenders. The colt is trained by Rick Dutrow, who won the 2008 Florida Derby with Big Brown, and will be ridden by C. Velasquez.
I must admit that this is an extremely difficult race to handicap. There is no standout contender. Every horse has a shot at hitting the board. But I feel that Dialed In, To Honor and Serve, and Soldat are the main contenders. I expect To Honor and Serve to be considerably sharper today than he was in the Fountain of Youth, and the pace should be quick enough to set up Dialed In's late rally. As for Soldat, he's a very good horse indeed and has an excellent chance at winning this race. But I am concerned that he won't be able to get a good trip.
So my picks are:
1 Dialed In
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Stay Thirsty
4 Soldat
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Flashpoint
7 Shackleford
8 Arch Traveler
This is such a magnificent field; I really don’t want to place any horse in that eighth spot! But I feel that Soldat and Flashpoint will not get good trips due to their respective post positions. With such a short run to the first turn, Flashpoint will have to be sent hard to the lead if he doesn’t want to get caught wide. And with so many horses attempting to get closer to the rail, I wouldn’t be surprised if Soldat was to get bumped around a bit. So I’ve picked Dialed In, hoping that the pace will be quick enough for him to rally for victory in deep stretch.
J.R. has a slightly different idea. He feels that Stay Thirsty is the best horse in the race, and that the colt will pounce impressively at the top of the stretch before drawing away to win by a length or two. He’s not very impressed with Dialed In.
His picks are:
1 Stay Thirsty
2 Bowman’s Causeway
3 Soldat
4 To Honor and Serve
5 Dialed In
6 Arch Traveler
7 Flashpoint
8 Shackleford
This is a race that you simply must see! You can watch a live streaming of the race at DRF.com.
Here’s the link:
http://www.drf.com/news/florida-derby-day-gulfstream-park
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The third race at Aqueduct definitely merits attention. A one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds and up, the race has drawn a five horse field. The 4-5 morning line favorite is Break Up The Game, a three-year-old colt who has shown a potent late kick in the past. Rigby, a four-year-old colt, is the 9- second choice. If Break Up The Game can defeat this field of older horses, than he is certainly one to watch for some of the best races later this year.
The seventh race at Santa Anita is even more exciting. The one-mile main track allowance optional claiming race has drawn an eight horse field, led by the very promising Wilburn. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the colt broke his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs last month in a brilliant 1:13.95. He earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure that day, and if he can match that performance today he should win easily. Chiloquin, a close third behind the promising Mr. Commons going a mile last time out, will be right there in the stretch if Wilburn falters. Uncle Sam, fourth in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) back in January, has been breezing sharply and will probably be the second choice. Special Kid, third in the Borderland Derby last time out, is also a logical contender.
Another intriguing contender is 20-1 shot Clarke Lane, who will be making his first start in the United States. He has been racing in Europe. Leading rider of the meet Joel Rosario has the mount.
The Swale Stakes (gr. II) on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth is also an intriguing race. The 4-5 morning line favorite is Travelin Man, who was second to Flashpoint in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) last time out. Against only five rivals, three of which he finished ahead of in the Hutcheson, I can’t see him losing.
My picks are:
1 Travelin’ Man
2 Little Drama
3 Indiano
4 Razmataz
5 Black N Beauty
6 Megalith
J.R.’s picks are:
1 Little Drama
2 Travelin’ Man
3 Razmataz
4 Black N Beauty
5 Indiano
6 Megalith
That’s all for the moment! Now go enjoy a fabulous day of racing! I will be posting live updates on my blog throughout the day as the best races are run!
-Keelerman
That's why this week's feature race is the Florida Derby.
FEATURE RACE: Florida Derby (gr. I)
$1,000,000 Purse, Nine Furlongs, Gulfstream Park Main Track
Five weeks until the Kentucky Derby -- just five. It's hard to believe that it's nearly here. It seems like just yesterday we were analyzing the Count Fleet Stakes, and the Sham Stakes. . . yet that was months ago.
The Florida Derby has been doing very well in producing Derby contenders in recent years. Last year, Florida Derby winner Ice Box ran second in the Kentucky Derby. In 2008, Big Brown won the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Barbaro did the same in 2006.
Based on these facts alone, whoever wins this year's Florida Derby should have an excellent shot at performing admirably in the Kentucky Derby. And then when you consider the quality of this year's field, I would not be surprised at all if one of them went on to win the Run for the Roses.
Here are the entries:
Post Position/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Soldat 9-5
2 To Honor and Serve 4-1
3 Arch Traveler 20-1
4 Bowman's Causeway 20-1
5 Shackleford 20-1
6 Stay Thirsty 8-1
7 Dialed In 2-1
8 Flashpoint 6-1
All will carry 122 pounds.
Soldat, the morning line favorite, has drawn the rail. The son of War Front has proven to be extremely versatile throughout his career. He has graded stakes victories on dirt and turf. He run well on the lead and coming from off the pace. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, the marvelous colt is coming off of two consecutive victories. The first was a nine furlong allowance race over a sloppy, sealed Gulfstream Park main track. He won by 10 3/4 lengths and earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure. His next race was the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), where he kicked clear of the highly regarded To Honor and Serve on the far turn to win by two lengths. To be ridden by Alan Garcia, I would not be surprised to see the colt just off the pace today, perhaps racing along in second or third in the early going.
To Honor and Serve has drawn gate two. The colt was a brilliant juvenile, sweeping to easy victories in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last fall at Aqueduct. However, he was very disappointing in his 2011 debut, tiring on the far turn to finish a distant third in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Trained by Bill Mott, he should be considerably sharper this time around and the son of Bernardini should be right in contention in the homestretch. He has some good tactical speed and should be able to get himself into a very good position early on. Garrett Gomez will ride the chestnut colt for the first time.
Arch Traveler is an intriguing contender. He broke his maiden third time out going seven furlongs in 1:22 1/5. His next start was his first two-turn race. Although he did win -- by three-quarters of a length over Nacho Business -- he ran the race in 1:52 1/5 and was drifting in the stretch. I have the suspicion that he may be more effective sprinting, but he definitely deserves a chance to prove himself under these circumstances. Trained by James Jerkens, the son of Sky Mesa will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.
In gate four we find Bowman's Causeway, a very promising son of Giant's Causeway who looks to have a bright future. In his first start, he finished third in a maiden special weight behind Mucho Macho Man and Bellamy's Boss. In his second start he was narrowly beaten by Nacho Business. Finally, he broke his maiden on February 11th, winning a nine furlong maiden special weight by a length. Fifteen days later he ran in the Fountain of Youth, where he finished fourth after a rough trip. In his most recent start, a March 19th one-mile allowance race at Gulfstream, he ran a close third behind a very promising pair in Dance City and Cal Nation. I feel that Bowman's Causeway is a true two-turn colt, and that he wants to go long -- a mile and a quarter, maybe even a mile and a half. The Fountain of Youth may be too short for him. But I doubt that he will be tiring at the finish. Trained by Patrick Biancone, Paco Lopez has the mount.
Shackleford is another longshot who may be a bit overlooked. He broke his maiden impressively second time out, winning a seven furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs by a very game performance. In his 2011 debut, he pulled away from Casper's Touch and El Grayling in deep stretch to win a nine furlong allowance race by 2 1/4 lengths. Entered in the Fountain of Youth, he was caught wide and finished a disappointing fifth. With a better trip, I expect him to run considerably better today. The son of Forestry is trained by Dale Romans and will be ridden by J. Castanon.
This brings us to Stay Thirsty, who has drawn gate six. The son of Bernardini has proven to be very consistent throughout his five-race career. In his first start, he was beaten two lengths going 5-1/2 furlongs by a nice colt in Sovereign Default. He then won a six furlong maiden special weight by 5 1/2 lengths. Entered in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) against the magnificent Boys at Tosconova, he fought well to finish second, beaten just 1 3/4 lengths. An attempt at winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile yielded less: a distant fifth place finish, but he was only beaten by four lengths for third. He was then put away for the year, returning on March 5th to make his 2011 debut in the Gotham Stakes. In that race, he was caught wide on both turns but still drew off strongly to win by 3 1/4 lengths. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the well-bred colt should be able to stay all day. But he has been known to drift in the stretch, so I would like to see him stay a bit straighter today. Ramon Dominguez will ride.
In gate seven is Dialed In, one of the most promising three-year-olds in the country. He broke his maiden first time out going 6-1/2 furlongs at Churchill Downs, rallying through traffic from far back to win the race by a half-length. His second start came in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) against the likes of Sweet Ducky, Gourmet Dinner, and Mucho Macho Man. He won in impressive fashion, charging from way back to win by 1 1/2 lengths. His third and most recent start came in a nine furlong allowance race against older horses, where his late run was compromised by a very slow pace. He still managed to rally well to be beaten only a 1/2 length by a good four-year-old in Equestrio. Trained by Nick Zito, the son of Mineshaft needs only a quick pace to be able to win this race. Julien Leparoux will ride the dark bay colt.
Finally, we come to the undefeated and brilliant Flashpoint. A son of Pomeroy, he broke his maiden first time out at Aqueduct, running six furlongs in 1:09 3/5 en route to a 6 1/4 length triumph. His second start came in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth. In that race, he dueled early with heavily favored Travelin Man before putting that one away and drawing off to a breathtaking 7 1/4 length victory. He stopped the clock in 1:22 flat and earned a Beyer speed figure of 102. Now, this will be his first start beyond seven furlongs, and he must overcome the far outside post position. It will not be easy at all. But if he wins, expect him to shoot to near the top of everyone's lists of Kentucky Derby contenders. The colt is trained by Rick Dutrow, who won the 2008 Florida Derby with Big Brown, and will be ridden by C. Velasquez.
I must admit that this is an extremely difficult race to handicap. There is no standout contender. Every horse has a shot at hitting the board. But I feel that Dialed In, To Honor and Serve, and Soldat are the main contenders. I expect To Honor and Serve to be considerably sharper today than he was in the Fountain of Youth, and the pace should be quick enough to set up Dialed In's late rally. As for Soldat, he's a very good horse indeed and has an excellent chance at winning this race. But I am concerned that he won't be able to get a good trip.
So my picks are:
1 Dialed In
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Stay Thirsty
4 Soldat
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Flashpoint
7 Shackleford
8 Arch Traveler
This is such a magnificent field; I really don’t want to place any horse in that eighth spot! But I feel that Soldat and Flashpoint will not get good trips due to their respective post positions. With such a short run to the first turn, Flashpoint will have to be sent hard to the lead if he doesn’t want to get caught wide. And with so many horses attempting to get closer to the rail, I wouldn’t be surprised if Soldat was to get bumped around a bit. So I’ve picked Dialed In, hoping that the pace will be quick enough for him to rally for victory in deep stretch.
J.R. has a slightly different idea. He feels that Stay Thirsty is the best horse in the race, and that the colt will pounce impressively at the top of the stretch before drawing away to win by a length or two. He’s not very impressed with Dialed In.
His picks are:
1 Stay Thirsty
2 Bowman’s Causeway
3 Soldat
4 To Honor and Serve
5 Dialed In
6 Arch Traveler
7 Flashpoint
8 Shackleford
This is a race that you simply must see! You can watch a live streaming of the race at DRF.com.
Here’s the link:
http://www.drf.com/news/florida-derby-day-gulfstream-park
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
The third race at Aqueduct definitely merits attention. A one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds and up, the race has drawn a five horse field. The 4-5 morning line favorite is Break Up The Game, a three-year-old colt who has shown a potent late kick in the past. Rigby, a four-year-old colt, is the 9- second choice. If Break Up The Game can defeat this field of older horses, than he is certainly one to watch for some of the best races later this year.
The seventh race at Santa Anita is even more exciting. The one-mile main track allowance optional claiming race has drawn an eight horse field, led by the very promising Wilburn. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the colt broke his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs last month in a brilliant 1:13.95. He earned a triple-digit Beyer speed figure that day, and if he can match that performance today he should win easily. Chiloquin, a close third behind the promising Mr. Commons going a mile last time out, will be right there in the stretch if Wilburn falters. Uncle Sam, fourth in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) back in January, has been breezing sharply and will probably be the second choice. Special Kid, third in the Borderland Derby last time out, is also a logical contender.
Another intriguing contender is 20-1 shot Clarke Lane, who will be making his first start in the United States. He has been racing in Europe. Leading rider of the meet Joel Rosario has the mount.
The Swale Stakes (gr. II) on the undercard of the Fountain of Youth is also an intriguing race. The 4-5 morning line favorite is Travelin Man, who was second to Flashpoint in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) last time out. Against only five rivals, three of which he finished ahead of in the Hutcheson, I can’t see him losing.
My picks are:
1 Travelin’ Man
2 Little Drama
3 Indiano
4 Razmataz
5 Black N Beauty
6 Megalith
J.R.’s picks are:
1 Little Drama
2 Travelin’ Man
3 Razmataz
4 Black N Beauty
5 Indiano
6 Megalith
That’s all for the moment! Now go enjoy a fabulous day of racing! I will be posting live updates on my blog throughout the day as the best races are run!
-Keelerman
TRAVELIN' MAN WINS THE SWALE!
Travelin Man showed a new dimension in the Swale Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon at Gulfstream Park, coming from just off the pace to win the seven furlong race by two lengths.
Ridden by John Velazquez, the colt was sent off as the 2-5 favorite off of a second place finish in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) last month. The early pace was set by longshot Razmataz, who set a fairly slow pace of :23.13 and :46.42. He was being tracked by Travelin Man, who was rating comfortably in second on the outside. Indiano and and Little Drama trailed the field.
Turning for home, Travelin Man made a bold bid to take the lead. Under little urging from Velazquez, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt put away Razmataz in the stretch and drew away to win easily. Little Drama and Indiano were closing belatedly, but neither threatened the winner. Travelin Man completed the seven furlongs in 1:21.94.
Indiano narrowly edged out Little Drama for second, with Razmataz and Megalith completing the order of finish.
-Keelerman
Ridden by John Velazquez, the colt was sent off as the 2-5 favorite off of a second place finish in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) last month. The early pace was set by longshot Razmataz, who set a fairly slow pace of :23.13 and :46.42. He was being tracked by Travelin Man, who was rating comfortably in second on the outside. Indiano and and Little Drama trailed the field.
Turning for home, Travelin Man made a bold bid to take the lead. Under little urging from Velazquez, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt put away Razmataz in the stretch and drew away to win easily. Little Drama and Indiano were closing belatedly, but neither threatened the winner. Travelin Man completed the seven furlongs in 1:21.94.
Indiano narrowly edged out Little Drama for second, with Razmataz and Megalith completing the order of finish.
-Keelerman
SWALE STAKES UPDATE
It is currently five minutes to post time for the third race at Gulfstream Park, the grade II Swale Stakes. The track is fast, the turf is firm, and it looks to be a great day of racing!
The race had drawn six entries, but Black N Beauty has scratched, leaving the field with five runners. Currently, the 1-5 favorite is Travelin' Man. He broke his maiden with a triple-digit Beyer speed figure, but finished a badly beaten second to Flashpoint in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) last time out. Still, he looks to secure an excellent trip and should have no trouble winning if he runs his race.
The second choice is Indiano at 3-1. The colt ran a strong second to the promising colt Escort last time out and should be flying late. Little Drama, third in the Hutcheson Stakes, is the third choice at 8-1.
It's nearly post time now! I'll be back with the results in just a few moments!
-Keelerman
The race had drawn six entries, but Black N Beauty has scratched, leaving the field with five runners. Currently, the 1-5 favorite is Travelin' Man. He broke his maiden with a triple-digit Beyer speed figure, but finished a badly beaten second to Flashpoint in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) last time out. Still, he looks to secure an excellent trip and should have no trouble winning if he runs his race.
The second choice is Indiano at 3-1. The colt ran a strong second to the promising colt Escort last time out and should be flying late. Little Drama, third in the Hutcheson Stakes, is the third choice at 8-1.
It's nearly post time now! I'll be back with the results in just a few moments!
-Keelerman
Saturday, February 26, 2011
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- February 26th, 2011
The Triple Crown Trail takes a sharp turn today. Some horses will negotiate this turn to perfection and continue on their way toward the Kentucky Derby. Others will take the turn a bit wide and lose some ground; possibly setting themselves too far back to get into contention.
The big question is how will To Honor and Serve take that turn? Unraced since November, the brilliant colt makes his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon. Last year, he flew to victories in the Nashua and Remsen Stakes (both grade II), defeating Mucho Macho Man both times. Mucho Macho Man has since come back to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and mark himself as a serious contender for the Triple Crown.
Will To Honor and Serve do the same and prove that he is as good as he was at two? Or will he falter on the turn as so many classy two-year-olds before him have? We find out this afternoon.
FEATURE RACE ---- Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
Gulfstream Park/9 Furlongs/$400,000 Purse/Dirt
Competition will not be lacking when To Honor and Serve enters the starting gate.
Lined up against him are stakes winners Soldat, Gourmet Dinner, and Racing Aptitude. Promising maiden and allowance race winners Casper’s Touch, Shackleford, and Bowman’s Causeway are ready to prove themselves as quality Triple Crown contenders. Throw in the consistent El Grayling and you have one of the finest fields for sophomores so far this year.
Here are the post positions. . .
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Soldat 2-1 120
2 Gourmet Dinner 5-1 120
3 El Grayling 15-1 116
4 Casper’s Touch 6-1 116
5 Bowman’s Causeway 20-1 116
6 Racing Aptitude 30-1 120
7 To Honor and Serve 8-5 122
8 Shackleford 8-1 116
To begin, there is Soldat. The son of War Front was a fine runner on turf last year, winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) and running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). However, he was tried on dirt in his 2011 debut and won by nearly eleven lengths over a sloppy track, which makes one wonder if he is actually better on dirt. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, he will have to prove himself capable of winning over a fast track today, as well as overcome starting from the rail. His workouts have been quite sharp. Alan Garcia will ride.
In gate two we find Gourmet Dinner, by far the richest of the eight three-year-olds in this race. The consistent colt won his first three races at Calder Race Course, including two stakes events, before running second in the In Reality Stakes. However, he rebounded off that loss with a sharp victory in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, which guaranteed him a spot in the Kentucky Derby, should he remain healthy. Two losses followed his Jackpot victory; a fourth in the grade I CashCall Futurity and a third in the Holy Bull Stakes. Neither performance was all that bad, and it can be argued that the Holy Bull was actually his best race. He has been training quite well for this race and should run his best race. Trained by Steve Standridge, the son of Trippi will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
The number three horse is El Grayling. A son of El Prado, he has had a fairly consistent career while competing against some very good horses. He has only won once, but finished fifth in the Sunday Silence Stakes while beaten just a half-length. He also finished second in a Churchill Downs allowance race behind Brethren and third in a Gulfstream allowance behind Shackleford and Casper’s Touch. Trained by Michael Maker, he would have to show some improvement if he is to contend here, but I wouldn’t count him out entirely. Rajiv Maragh has the mount.
This brings us to Casper’s Touch, the unlucky runner-up in a recent allowance race. A son of Touch Gold, the promising youngster finished fourth in his first start before shipping to England to run in Ascot’s Chesham Stakes. He finished third in a field of twelve, a fine performance indeed. He did not start again until November of 2010, when he won a one-mile main track allowance race at Churchill Downs in sharp fashion. This made him the even-money favorite in the above-mentioned allowance race, where he was bumped very hard in the stretch but still managed to re-rally for second. With a little more luck today, I expect him to run quite well. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, he will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Now we come to Bowman’s Causeway, one of the longer shots in this race. The son of Giant’s Causeway began his career in September 2010, running third in a maiden special weight behind Mucho Macho Man. This good effort made him the favorite in his next start, a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Sent straight to the lead, he set a quick pace before tiring late and finishing second behind Nacho Business. Finally, twelve days later and just fifteen days ago, he broke his maiden going nine furlongs by a length. Trained by Patrick Biancone, he will be making his third start in just four weeks, but I think he may surprise a few people and run well this afternoon. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Racing Aptitude drew gate six. The longshot in this race, he has never won a race on dirt and has never earned a Beyer speed figure higher than 78. His highest Beyer on dirt was a 29. He finished fifth and seventh in his last two races, but give him credit: in his last start, the Dania Beach Stakes, he was forced to steady twice and was only beaten 4 ¾ lengths. Trained by Howard Tesher, I doubt that he will be much of a factor today but perhaps he can hang on for a piece of the purse. I expect him to be not too far off the lead. Jose Lezcano has the mount.
This brings us to To Honor and Serve. As I mentioned above, the son of Bernardini won the Nashua and Remsen Stakes last year in sharp fashion, but he hasn’t raced since then. Trained by Bill Mott, the chestnut colt is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He should run a good race today, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t quite show his best form this afternoon. After all, it’s been three months since his last race and although his workouts have been sharp, he may come up just a bit short in the stretch. However, his class alone should be enough to secure him second, if not first. John Velazquez will ride.
Finally, there is Shackleford. The colt has made three starts, winning four of them. Most recently, he won a nine furlong allowance race in which he defeated Casper’s Touch and El Grayling. The front-running colt will have to use his speed early if he does not want to get caught wide on the first turn. Trained by Dale Romans, I wouldn’t count him out but I can’t see him winning. He will be ridden by J. Castanon.
I have gone back and forth . . . and back and forth . . . and back and forth between my picks. I’ve debated for days whether or not To Honor and Serve will be sharp enough to win. Finally, I decided on these selections:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Soldat
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Bowman’s Causeway
5 Casper’s Touch
6 Shackleford
7 Racing Aptitude
8 El Grayling
I’ve finally decided to go with To Honor and Serve and hope that his class sees him through. There’s no doubt that it will be a tough race to win, but I think that he’s up to it.
As for Gourmet Dinner, I really like him but he strikes me as a colt who doesn’t want much further than a mile and a sixteenth. Nine furlongs is probably within his range, but I expect him to tire just a bit in the homestretch.
Of course, J.R. sees it differently.
J.R. had quite a bit of success last week beating favorites – he selected Mucho Macho Man to win the Risen Star and Archarcharch to win the Southwest Stakes. He’s going to try and do it again with Gourmet Dinner. He feels that Gourmet Dinner ran a magnificent race in the Holy Bull and that he will catch To Honor and Serve inside the sixteenth pole to win by a half-length. He feels that Soldat will not run as well on a fast track as he did on a sloppy track last time out and will disappoint while heavily bet.
His picks are thus:
1 Gourmet Dinner
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Soldat
4 Casper’s Touch
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Shackleford
7 El Grayling
8 Racing Aptitude
We’ll see what happens!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
There is a fine set of supporting stakes races on the Fountain of Youth undercard, led by the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). But before I begin discussing it, allow me to note that Crossbow has scratched. He shall instead await the Gotham Stakes next Saturday and run there.
Of the remaining entries, the morning line favorite is Travelin Man. The colt has made but one start thus far, breaking his maiden impressively going six furlongs over this track on January 6th. He won by 7 ¼ lengths and stopped the clock in 1:09.09. The performance was admirable, and he should run well today.
Other major contenders are Flashpoint, Madman Diaries, Black N Beauty, Manicero, and Royal Currier. Flashpoint broke his maiden sharply first time out, but has not started since. Madman Diaries set the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) before tiring to fourth. Black N Beauty finished fifth in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out, but won a one-mile allowance race impressively before that. Manicero has won four straight, but seven furlongs may be a bit of a stretch. Finally, Royal Hughes ran second to Fort Hughes last time out in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes.
It’s a nearly impossible race to handicap, but I must do so because it is one of this week’s contest races. Therefore, here are my selections. . .
1 Leave of Absence
2 Travelin Man
3 Royal Currier
4 Flashpoint
5 Manicero
6 Black N Beauty
7 Razmataz
8 Madman Diaries
9 Little Drama
It is a bit daring to pick Leave of Absence, but I decided to do so because he is the only colt in this race who has NOT shown early turn of foot. I expect a ridiculous speed duel for the early lead, enabling Leave of Absence to come flying late to win.
J.R., however, will select Razmataz. He feels that the colt will be overlooked in the betting, and will come from a few lengths off the lead to win in a photo finish. He likes the fact that the colt is trained by Todd Pletcher.
His picks are:
1 Razmataz
2 Royal Currier
3 Flashpoint
4 Leave of Absence
5 Little Drama
6 Travelin Man
7 Madman Diaries
8 Manicero
9 Black N Beauty
I feel confident that this race will enable me to catch up to J.R. in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest. However, he is equally confident that this race will enable him to build up an uncatchable lead. We’ll see.
The Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, in which Mine That Bird ran while prepping for his victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, is the final race which J.R. and I shall handicap today.
The race has drawn a field of ten, with Special Kid the morning line favorite. He broke his maiden going a mile and a sixteenth at Santa Anita Park, winning a maiden special weight race by a nose with a desperate late run. Fusa Code, third in that race, is also running in the Borderland Derby even though he has never won a race.
Another logical contender is Expecting Cash. Most recently, he finished third behind Decisive Moment and Su Casa G Casa in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs. It was a fine performance and should set him up well here.
It’s My Party won a one-mile allowance race last time out and is stakes placed. Orion Xpress broke his maiden going six furlongs in 1:10.52. Either of them could run quite well.
Here are my selections:
1 It’s My Party
2 Special Kid
3 Expecting Cash
4 Orion Xpress
5 Mason’s Pegasus
6 Fusa Code
7 R Skydiver
8 What’s the Toccet
9 Carsoncitygambler
10 Behold de Buy
And here are J.R.’s:
1 Orion Xpress
2 Expecting Cash
3 Special Kid
4 R Skydiver
5 It’s My Party
6 Mason’s Pegasus
7 Fusa Code
8 Behold de Buy
9 What’s the Toccet
10 Carsoncitygambler
Neither of us have a very good feel for the race, but that is what we came up with. We’ll see what happens!
The one-mile Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), run at Gulfstream Park two races prior to the Fountain of Youth Stakes, drew a field of nine. However, Roxy Gap has scratched, leaving the race with eight runners.
The morning line favorite is Dancinginherdreams. The fine filly swept to two easy victories as a juvenile, including a 5 ¼ length triumph in the grade II Pocahontas Stakes. However, she lost her first race as a three-year-old, rallying strongly but failing to catch Pomeroy’s Pistol in the grade II Forward Gal Stakes. She should be sharper today.
Speaking of Pomeroy’s Pistol, she will try to beat Dancinginherdreams yet again today. She has twice proven herself to be stakes caliber; not only did she win the Forward Gal she also ran second in Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) two starts back. She will likely set the pace this afternoon.
R Heat Lightning is the other obvious contender. She won the grade I Spinaway Stakes at two and ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), but in her 2011 debut ran fourth in the Forward Gal. Like Dancinginherdreams, she should run better today.
Then there is the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise. The 5-2 favorite is Indian Winter, who finished third in the grade I Del Mar Futurity as a juvenile and won the San Pedro Stakes last time out. He will have to prove himself in a route race today, but I believe that he will do so impressively.
The third race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday merits attention as well. The race has drawn a pair of very promising colts in Arch Traveler and Nacho Business. Both are entering the race off of sharp maiden victories and I would not be surprised to see them run 1-2. Other notable colts include Washington’s Rules, Private Prize, and Cool Blue Red Hot. This race may turn out a Florida Derby contender or two.
The sixth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday is also quite notable. The 8-5 morning line favorite, San Pablo, enters off of a strong second to Washington’s Rules in a maiden special weight. He may be something special, so I advise you to keep an eye on him!
The fifth race at Fair Grounds on Saturday is also noteworthy. The favorites at 6-5 are Sour and Left, who will run coupled. Sour and Lumberyard Jack are the colts that I will be watching. Both are coming off of victories in one-mile and seventy yards maiden special weight races, and both could mark themselves as potential Louisiana Derby contenders with a victory.
The Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park has drawn a fine field of seven; however, there have been two scratches. The morning line favorite is J J’s Lucky Train, a very consistent colt who has finished second in both the Count Fleet Stakes and Whirlaway Stakes this year. He should finish in the exacta today without a doubt.
His main competition will likely come from Bandbox. The colt won his first three races, which included a pair of stakes races, before finishing fourth in the Remsen Stakes after a rough trip. This will be his first start since then, but he should be up to running a winning race.
The ultra-consistent Wicked Thunder is the third choice. He has made nine starts, won four of them, and never finished worse than second. In his most recent race, the Dancing Count Stakes at Laurel Park, he won by a nose in a thrilling stretch duel. Seeing that he has experience over this track, he may be good enough to upset the two favorites.
The second race at Oaklawn Park on Sunday should prove interesting as well. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race for three-year-olds and up, the morning line favorite is Commander. The colt ran third behind Alternation and Elite Alex two starts back, but finished a badly beaten sixth in a January 29th allowance race. On the other hand, his sixth place finish came only two weeks after his tough third, so perhaps the extra rest between his January 29th start and tomorrow’s race will help him run better.
Supreme Ruler should also run well. 7-2 on the morning line, he broke his maiden with a tremendous late run first time out on January 15th. This will be his first start since then. Expect to see him flying late.
Finally, we come to the eighth race at Santa Anita Park on Saturday. A one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds, the favorite is Mr. Commons, who broke his maiden second time out at Santa Anita. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on the downhill turf course, he drew off to a 5 ½ length victory in a brilliant 1:12.14. If he can transfer that form to the main track, he will be tough to beat.
Also, keep an eye on Chiloquin, who defeated next-time-out winner Drink at Buster’s in a January 16th allowance race at Santa Anita,
And finally, after three thousand-plus words, that is all I have to say. Now go out and enjoy a fabulous set of races!
-Keelerman
The big question is how will To Honor and Serve take that turn? Unraced since November, the brilliant colt makes his three-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon. Last year, he flew to victories in the Nashua and Remsen Stakes (both grade II), defeating Mucho Macho Man both times. Mucho Macho Man has since come back to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and mark himself as a serious contender for the Triple Crown.
Will To Honor and Serve do the same and prove that he is as good as he was at two? Or will he falter on the turn as so many classy two-year-olds before him have? We find out this afternoon.
FEATURE RACE ---- Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)
Gulfstream Park/9 Furlongs/$400,000 Purse/Dirt
Competition will not be lacking when To Honor and Serve enters the starting gate.
Lined up against him are stakes winners Soldat, Gourmet Dinner, and Racing Aptitude. Promising maiden and allowance race winners Casper’s Touch, Shackleford, and Bowman’s Causeway are ready to prove themselves as quality Triple Crown contenders. Throw in the consistent El Grayling and you have one of the finest fields for sophomores so far this year.
Here are the post positions. . .
Post Positions/Horse/Morning Line Odds/Weight
1 Soldat 2-1 120
2 Gourmet Dinner 5-1 120
3 El Grayling 15-1 116
4 Casper’s Touch 6-1 116
5 Bowman’s Causeway 20-1 116
6 Racing Aptitude 30-1 120
7 To Honor and Serve 8-5 122
8 Shackleford 8-1 116
To begin, there is Soldat. The son of War Front was a fine runner on turf last year, winning the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. III) and running second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II). However, he was tried on dirt in his 2011 debut and won by nearly eleven lengths over a sloppy track, which makes one wonder if he is actually better on dirt. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, he will have to prove himself capable of winning over a fast track today, as well as overcome starting from the rail. His workouts have been quite sharp. Alan Garcia will ride.
In gate two we find Gourmet Dinner, by far the richest of the eight three-year-olds in this race. The consistent colt won his first three races at Calder Race Course, including two stakes events, before running second in the In Reality Stakes. However, he rebounded off that loss with a sharp victory in the $1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, which guaranteed him a spot in the Kentucky Derby, should he remain healthy. Two losses followed his Jackpot victory; a fourth in the grade I CashCall Futurity and a third in the Holy Bull Stakes. Neither performance was all that bad, and it can be argued that the Holy Bull was actually his best race. He has been training quite well for this race and should run his best race. Trained by Steve Standridge, the son of Trippi will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.
The number three horse is El Grayling. A son of El Prado, he has had a fairly consistent career while competing against some very good horses. He has only won once, but finished fifth in the Sunday Silence Stakes while beaten just a half-length. He also finished second in a Churchill Downs allowance race behind Brethren and third in a Gulfstream allowance behind Shackleford and Casper’s Touch. Trained by Michael Maker, he would have to show some improvement if he is to contend here, but I wouldn’t count him out entirely. Rajiv Maragh has the mount.
This brings us to Casper’s Touch, the unlucky runner-up in a recent allowance race. A son of Touch Gold, the promising youngster finished fourth in his first start before shipping to England to run in Ascot’s Chesham Stakes. He finished third in a field of twelve, a fine performance indeed. He did not start again until November of 2010, when he won a one-mile main track allowance race at Churchill Downs in sharp fashion. This made him the even-money favorite in the above-mentioned allowance race, where he was bumped very hard in the stretch but still managed to re-rally for second. With a little more luck today, I expect him to run quite well. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, he will be ridden by Alex Solis.
Now we come to Bowman’s Causeway, one of the longer shots in this race. The son of Giant’s Causeway began his career in September 2010, running third in a maiden special weight behind Mucho Macho Man. This good effort made him the favorite in his next start, a one-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Sent straight to the lead, he set a quick pace before tiring late and finishing second behind Nacho Business. Finally, twelve days later and just fifteen days ago, he broke his maiden going nine furlongs by a length. Trained by Patrick Biancone, he will be making his third start in just four weeks, but I think he may surprise a few people and run well this afternoon. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
Racing Aptitude drew gate six. The longshot in this race, he has never won a race on dirt and has never earned a Beyer speed figure higher than 78. His highest Beyer on dirt was a 29. He finished fifth and seventh in his last two races, but give him credit: in his last start, the Dania Beach Stakes, he was forced to steady twice and was only beaten 4 ¾ lengths. Trained by Howard Tesher, I doubt that he will be much of a factor today but perhaps he can hang on for a piece of the purse. I expect him to be not too far off the lead. Jose Lezcano has the mount.
This brings us to To Honor and Serve. As I mentioned above, the son of Bernardini won the Nashua and Remsen Stakes last year in sharp fashion, but he hasn’t raced since then. Trained by Bill Mott, the chestnut colt is one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He should run a good race today, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t quite show his best form this afternoon. After all, it’s been three months since his last race and although his workouts have been sharp, he may come up just a bit short in the stretch. However, his class alone should be enough to secure him second, if not first. John Velazquez will ride.
Finally, there is Shackleford. The colt has made three starts, winning four of them. Most recently, he won a nine furlong allowance race in which he defeated Casper’s Touch and El Grayling. The front-running colt will have to use his speed early if he does not want to get caught wide on the first turn. Trained by Dale Romans, I wouldn’t count him out but I can’t see him winning. He will be ridden by J. Castanon.
I have gone back and forth . . . and back and forth . . . and back and forth between my picks. I’ve debated for days whether or not To Honor and Serve will be sharp enough to win. Finally, I decided on these selections:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Soldat
3 Gourmet Dinner
4 Bowman’s Causeway
5 Casper’s Touch
6 Shackleford
7 Racing Aptitude
8 El Grayling
I’ve finally decided to go with To Honor and Serve and hope that his class sees him through. There’s no doubt that it will be a tough race to win, but I think that he’s up to it.
As for Gourmet Dinner, I really like him but he strikes me as a colt who doesn’t want much further than a mile and a sixteenth. Nine furlongs is probably within his range, but I expect him to tire just a bit in the homestretch.
Of course, J.R. sees it differently.
J.R. had quite a bit of success last week beating favorites – he selected Mucho Macho Man to win the Risen Star and Archarcharch to win the Southwest Stakes. He’s going to try and do it again with Gourmet Dinner. He feels that Gourmet Dinner ran a magnificent race in the Holy Bull and that he will catch To Honor and Serve inside the sixteenth pole to win by a half-length. He feels that Soldat will not run as well on a fast track as he did on a sloppy track last time out and will disappoint while heavily bet.
His picks are thus:
1 Gourmet Dinner
2 To Honor and Serve
3 Soldat
4 Casper’s Touch
5 Bowman’s Causeway
6 Shackleford
7 El Grayling
8 Racing Aptitude
We’ll see what happens!
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
There is a fine set of supporting stakes races on the Fountain of Youth undercard, led by the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II). But before I begin discussing it, allow me to note that Crossbow has scratched. He shall instead await the Gotham Stakes next Saturday and run there.
Of the remaining entries, the morning line favorite is Travelin Man. The colt has made but one start thus far, breaking his maiden impressively going six furlongs over this track on January 6th. He won by 7 ¼ lengths and stopped the clock in 1:09.09. The performance was admirable, and he should run well today.
Other major contenders are Flashpoint, Madman Diaries, Black N Beauty, Manicero, and Royal Currier. Flashpoint broke his maiden sharply first time out, but has not started since. Madman Diaries set the pace in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) before tiring to fourth. Black N Beauty finished fifth in the Holy Bull Stakes last time out, but won a one-mile allowance race impressively before that. Manicero has won four straight, but seven furlongs may be a bit of a stretch. Finally, Royal Hughes ran second to Fort Hughes last time out in the Jimmy Winkfield Stakes.
It’s a nearly impossible race to handicap, but I must do so because it is one of this week’s contest races. Therefore, here are my selections. . .
1 Leave of Absence
2 Travelin Man
3 Royal Currier
4 Flashpoint
5 Manicero
6 Black N Beauty
7 Razmataz
8 Madman Diaries
9 Little Drama
It is a bit daring to pick Leave of Absence, but I decided to do so because he is the only colt in this race who has NOT shown early turn of foot. I expect a ridiculous speed duel for the early lead, enabling Leave of Absence to come flying late to win.
J.R., however, will select Razmataz. He feels that the colt will be overlooked in the betting, and will come from a few lengths off the lead to win in a photo finish. He likes the fact that the colt is trained by Todd Pletcher.
His picks are:
1 Razmataz
2 Royal Currier
3 Flashpoint
4 Leave of Absence
5 Little Drama
6 Travelin Man
7 Madman Diaries
8 Manicero
9 Black N Beauty
I feel confident that this race will enable me to catch up to J.R. in our Triple Crown Handicapping Contest. However, he is equally confident that this race will enable him to build up an uncatchable lead. We’ll see.
The Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, in which Mine That Bird ran while prepping for his victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby, is the final race which J.R. and I shall handicap today.
The race has drawn a field of ten, with Special Kid the morning line favorite. He broke his maiden going a mile and a sixteenth at Santa Anita Park, winning a maiden special weight race by a nose with a desperate late run. Fusa Code, third in that race, is also running in the Borderland Derby even though he has never won a race.
Another logical contender is Expecting Cash. Most recently, he finished third behind Decisive Moment and Su Casa G Casa in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs. It was a fine performance and should set him up well here.
It’s My Party won a one-mile allowance race last time out and is stakes placed. Orion Xpress broke his maiden going six furlongs in 1:10.52. Either of them could run quite well.
Here are my selections:
1 It’s My Party
2 Special Kid
3 Expecting Cash
4 Orion Xpress
5 Mason’s Pegasus
6 Fusa Code
7 R Skydiver
8 What’s the Toccet
9 Carsoncitygambler
10 Behold de Buy
And here are J.R.’s:
1 Orion Xpress
2 Expecting Cash
3 Special Kid
4 R Skydiver
5 It’s My Party
6 Mason’s Pegasus
7 Fusa Code
8 Behold de Buy
9 What’s the Toccet
10 Carsoncitygambler
Neither of us have a very good feel for the race, but that is what we came up with. We’ll see what happens!
The one-mile Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), run at Gulfstream Park two races prior to the Fountain of Youth Stakes, drew a field of nine. However, Roxy Gap has scratched, leaving the race with eight runners.
The morning line favorite is Dancinginherdreams. The fine filly swept to two easy victories as a juvenile, including a 5 ¼ length triumph in the grade II Pocahontas Stakes. However, she lost her first race as a three-year-old, rallying strongly but failing to catch Pomeroy’s Pistol in the grade II Forward Gal Stakes. She should be sharper today.
Speaking of Pomeroy’s Pistol, she will try to beat Dancinginherdreams yet again today. She has twice proven herself to be stakes caliber; not only did she win the Forward Gal she also ran second in Old Hat Stakes (gr. III) two starts back. She will likely set the pace this afternoon.
R Heat Lightning is the other obvious contender. She won the grade I Spinaway Stakes at two and ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I), but in her 2011 debut ran fourth in the Forward Gal. Like Dancinginherdreams, she should run better today.
Then there is the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise. The 5-2 favorite is Indian Winter, who finished third in the grade I Del Mar Futurity as a juvenile and won the San Pedro Stakes last time out. He will have to prove himself in a route race today, but I believe that he will do so impressively.
The third race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday merits attention as well. The race has drawn a pair of very promising colts in Arch Traveler and Nacho Business. Both are entering the race off of sharp maiden victories and I would not be surprised to see them run 1-2. Other notable colts include Washington’s Rules, Private Prize, and Cool Blue Red Hot. This race may turn out a Florida Derby contender or two.
The sixth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday is also quite notable. The 8-5 morning line favorite, San Pablo, enters off of a strong second to Washington’s Rules in a maiden special weight. He may be something special, so I advise you to keep an eye on him!
The fifth race at Fair Grounds on Saturday is also noteworthy. The favorites at 6-5 are Sour and Left, who will run coupled. Sour and Lumberyard Jack are the colts that I will be watching. Both are coming off of victories in one-mile and seventy yards maiden special weight races, and both could mark themselves as potential Louisiana Derby contenders with a victory.
The Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park has drawn a fine field of seven; however, there have been two scratches. The morning line favorite is J J’s Lucky Train, a very consistent colt who has finished second in both the Count Fleet Stakes and Whirlaway Stakes this year. He should finish in the exacta today without a doubt.
His main competition will likely come from Bandbox. The colt won his first three races, which included a pair of stakes races, before finishing fourth in the Remsen Stakes after a rough trip. This will be his first start since then, but he should be up to running a winning race.
The ultra-consistent Wicked Thunder is the third choice. He has made nine starts, won four of them, and never finished worse than second. In his most recent race, the Dancing Count Stakes at Laurel Park, he won by a nose in a thrilling stretch duel. Seeing that he has experience over this track, he may be good enough to upset the two favorites.
The second race at Oaklawn Park on Sunday should prove interesting as well. A mile and a sixteenth allowance race for three-year-olds and up, the morning line favorite is Commander. The colt ran third behind Alternation and Elite Alex two starts back, but finished a badly beaten sixth in a January 29th allowance race. On the other hand, his sixth place finish came only two weeks after his tough third, so perhaps the extra rest between his January 29th start and tomorrow’s race will help him run better.
Supreme Ruler should also run well. 7-2 on the morning line, he broke his maiden with a tremendous late run first time out on January 15th. This will be his first start since then. Expect to see him flying late.
Finally, we come to the eighth race at Santa Anita Park on Saturday. A one-mile allowance race for three-year-olds, the favorite is Mr. Commons, who broke his maiden second time out at Santa Anita. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on the downhill turf course, he drew off to a 5 ½ length victory in a brilliant 1:12.14. If he can transfer that form to the main track, he will be tough to beat.
Also, keep an eye on Chiloquin, who defeated next-time-out winner Drink at Buster’s in a January 16th allowance race at Santa Anita,
And finally, after three thousand-plus words, that is all I have to say. Now go out and enjoy a fabulous set of races!
-Keelerman
FLASHPOINT WINS THE HUTCHESON!
Flashpoint dueled for the early lead and drew off to a magnificent victory in the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) this afternoon at Gulfstream Park.
Ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, Flashpoint sat just off of the early pace set by 3-5 favorite Travelin Man before blowing past that one at the top of the stretch. It was no race from then on, with Flashpoint drawing away to win by at least eight lengths. The final time was 1:22.03.
Travelin Man held second over Little Drama, with Razmataz finishing fourth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, Flashpoint sat just off of the early pace set by 3-5 favorite Travelin Man before blowing past that one at the top of the stretch. It was no race from then on, with Flashpoint drawing away to win by at least eight lengths. The final time was 1:22.03.
Travelin Man held second over Little Drama, with Razmataz finishing fourth.
-Keelerman
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