THE TWENTY, as of April 16th, 2010

1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I think that he ran a great race to finish third in the Arkansas Derby. I am positive that D. Wayne Lukas will have him ready for the Kentucky Derby, and I'm positive that Dublin is a top class colt.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
Just watch, three bad trips in a row, but he'll get a dream trip in the Kentucky Derby. Bob Baffert is a brilliant trainer, and I'm sure that he will have Lookin at Lucky ready.
3. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
With 150,000 screaming people, twenty horses, and a bunch of cameras, who knows how he will respond in the Kentucky Derby. I'm worried that he won't rate, and that he will add his name to the list of front runners on May 1st.
4. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
I imagine that the Kentucky Oaks is still her goal, but I think that she might just show up for the Preakness or Belmont. Or perhaps they will take a shot and run her in the Kentucky Derby. I think that she is better than most of the colts on this list.
5. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
The more I think about him, the more I like him. Perhaps he is one of those special front runners who can rate just off the lead and blow past his opponents with ease. Perhaps this colt is like Seattle Slew, a front runner who could go a mile and a half.
6. ENDORSEMENT Distorted Humor - Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy Shannon Ritter
He obviously relished Sunland Park, but he still has a lot of questions to answer. He may surprise everyone and win on Derby day, or he may finish last. I think that he is a versatile colt and may come from far back on May 1st.
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
I would not be surprised at all if this colt is forgotten on Derby day. Obviously, a third place finish, ten lengths back, in the Wood Memorial doesn't scream Kentucky Derby quality. But he had so many problems in the Wood Memorial that I am willing to excuse his poor showing and take a shot with him.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
He doesn't seem to be quite as good as Eskendereya, based on his poor showing in the Fountain of Youth, but he had a horrible trip in that race and would have been closer with a bit more luck. If the pace in the Kentucky Derby is anything near what Giacomo got in 2005, he should be coming late.
9. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He ran a very good race in the Arkansas Derby, but I just can't decide if he can get the distance. His pedigree says he can, but he just doesn't seem to be able to.
10. CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
I don't think that anybody is paying any attention to this colt after his fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, and he doesn't have enough graded earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby, but I do think he deserves a shot at Preakness. I think that he has that much talent.
11. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
I just can't decide what to do with this colt, but he was very impressive in the Louisiana Derby. The form from Louisiana hasn't held up in other states, and Mission Impazible was well beaten by Conveyance and Dublin last February, but who knows?
12. SETSUKO
He looks like he has a ton of talent, but he is not rich enough to get into the Kentucky Derby. He made have a shot at the Preakness, or perhaps the Belmont, but I'm just not sure.
13. STATELY VICTOR
Extremely impressive in the Blue Grass Stakes, and it looks like he was going to keep running, but Keeneland's Polytrack has always been very unusual, and every winner of the Blue Grass since it has been on Polytrack have run poorly in the Kentucky Derby. But perhaps this colt can change that.
14. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
Ran fifth in the Arkansas Derby, but he had plenty of excuses. He had a poor break and dropped back to last as they moved on to the first turn, came out of the race with cuts and a slight lung infection. It is unknown if he will run in the Kentucky Derby or not, but he does look like a great Preakness horse.
15. LINE OF DAVID
He showed a lot of courage while going wire-to-wire in the Arkansas Derby, but I just don't think that he is going to go a mile and a quarter. His pedigree doesn't say so, but you never know what he might do.
16. RULE
Ran similar fractions to what Line of David did in the Florida Derby, but did end up finishing third. Still, he seems to be one of the fastest colts aiming for the Kentucky Derby, and he may have just enough to get it done.
17. CONVEYANCE
I actually started to forget about this colt after the Sunland Derby, but put him back on for many reasons. I can't see him winning the Kentucky Derby, with all the speed that will be running, but it's possible that everything could go his way.
18. PLEASANT PRINCE Indy King - Archduchess, by Wesley Ward
After running seventh in the Blue Grass, I thought that this horse had no shot at making the Kentucky Derby, but then his owners decided to run him in the Derby Trial. Yes, it is very unusual, but stranger things have happened. (Such as Mine That Bird . . .)
19. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
I have loved this colt since his win in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, but he just hasn't shown the ability to win the Kentucky Derby. Still, there's something about him that bugs me and I just can't drop him off my list until I discover what it is.
20. JACKSON BEND
Like American Lion, I just can't bring myself to drop him out of the Top Twenty. He has been so consistent and I am willing to leave him on here because of that.

WATCH VERY CLOSELY

ALPHIE'S BET Graded earnings are a concern.
BACKTALK Will he go to the Derby or not?
CONNEMARA Will get another shot at graded earnings in the Lexington.
COOL BULLET Very impressive in the Hansel Stakes.
DEAN'S KITTEN Impressive in the Lane's End.
DISCREETLY MINE Not crying for distance.
DISTORTED DAVE Might have a shot if he wins the Lexington.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY Impressive in the Bay Shore, will run in the Derby Trial, and possibly the Kentucky Derby.
EXHI Gets his chance in the Lexington.
HOMEBOYKRIS Will train up to the Kentucky Derby.
INTERACTIF Disappointing in the Blue Grass.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Disappointing in the Blue Grass.
NORDIC TRUCE Three-for-three after Transylvania win.
PADDY O'PRADO Nice second in the Blue Grass.
RON THE GREEK Graded earnings are a major concern.
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS Disappointing fourth in the Wood Memorial.
SKIPSHOT Graded earnings are a big concern.
STAY PUT Graded earnings are a concern.
YAWANNA TWIST Graded earnings are a concern.

KEEP AN EYE ON

AIKENITE Disappointing in the Blue Grass.
A LITTLE WARM I don't think that he has the stamina.
BULLS AND BEARS Perhaps the Preakness or Belmont.
BIM BAM Is he aiming for the Triple Crown?
CARDIFF GIANT Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby.
CODOY Not bad in the Blue Grass.
COLIZEO I don't think he has the ability.
CONCORD POINT Nice win in a six and a half furlong allowance race.
DAVE IN DIXIE Disappointing in the Illinois Derby.
DIXIE COMMANDER Out of opportunities.
FIRST DUDE Third in the Blue Grass, graded earnings still a concern.
FLY DOWN Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
GAME ON DUDE Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
LAUS DEO Just about out of opportunities.
MAXIMUS RULER I don't think that he can get the distance.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR I don't think that he can get the distance.
NORTHERN GIANT Extremely disappointing in the Arkansas Derby.
OUTLAW MAN Out of opportunities.
PEPPI KNOWS Just about out of opportunities.
PULSION Very disappointing in the Arkansas Derby.
RADIOHEAD Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
SOARING EMPIRE Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT I don't think that he is quite ready.
THE PROGRAM Just about out of opportunities.
TIZ CHROME Where will he run next?
TIZ THE ONE I don't know where he's heading.
WORKING FOR HOPS Nice win in the Grindstone.
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Is he off the Triple Crown Trail?

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 16th, 2010

It is now just two weeks until the Kentucky Derby. The field is taking shape, and only two more preps remain. One of them is this Saturday.

Last week, several important things happened, including Odysseus, Uh Oh Bango, Interactif, and Aikenite dropping out of the Kentucky Derby. Odysseus and Uh Oh Bango won't be running in any of the Triple Crown races due to injuries. Interactif might still run in the Derby, but it is highly doubted. Aikenite is skipping the Derby, but might show up for the Belmont. Noble's Promise may or may not run in the Derby due to a variety of problems, and Lookin at Lucky is going to shed his blinkers.

Confused yet? I'll explain.

But first, let's take a look at the Coolmore Lexington Stakes.

COOLMORE LEXINGTON STAKES (gr. II) ---- Keeneland, Race 9, April 17th
8.5 Furlongs (Synthetic)

So, this is the Lexington Stakes. I'm afraid that it is a bit of a disappointment. Now, don't get me wrong, the field is great and it's going to be a great race to watch, but because it's going to take over $200,000 to get into the Kentucky Derby this year, it looks as though the winner of this race will not make the Kentucky Derby. Of all the runners, it appears that only Connemara has the graded earnings to possibly get in with a win here, and he isn't aiming for the Kentucky Derby at this time. Disappointing, but it's still going to be a good race. Let's take a look at who's running.

To begin with, there is the number one horse Krypton. The son of Rock Hard Ten has only two wins in two starts, but does have a win over the Keeneland Polytrack. Trained by K. McLaughlin, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia. His morning line odds are 6-1, but I think that he has a better chance than his odds say.

Then there is the number two horse Uptowncharlybrown. The son of Limehouse is the slight morning line favorite at 4-1. He is also the heavy sentimental favorite, for his trainer, Alan Seewald, passed away on April 12th. Uptowncharlybrown is now being trained by Seewald's assistant Linda White. According to Bob Hutt, one of the many owners of the colt, Seewald did not intend to start Uptowncharlybrown in the Kentucky Derby, but it was his dream to win the Haskell Invitational. Hopefully, the colt will be able to do it for him. He will be ridden today by Garrett Gomez and will carry 117 pounds.

Moving on, we come to the number three horse Distorted Dave. The son of Distorted Humor comes into the Lexington off of an Allowance Optional Claiming race at Santa Anita Park. This will be his first start outside of California, and his first start at a track other than Santa Anita for that matter. He may just have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Victor Espinoza.

This brings us to the number four horse Bushwhacked. The son of Posse comes into the Lexington off of a win in a maiden race at Keeneland two weeks ago. It was his third attempt to break his maiden, but his first start at Keeneland. He may be coming back a little quick, but I wouldn't count him out. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by R. Maragh.

Now we come to the number five horse Call Shot. The son of Tale of the Cat has been competing with some very good company, including Radiohead, Homeboykris, Dublin, and Thiskihasnolimit. He was actually entered to run in the Transylvania Stakes on April 2nd, but scratched. Although he only has two wins from six starts, he has finished in the top three five out of six times. He most recently finished third to Radiohead and Homeboykris in a Gulfstream Park allowance race. He does have a win over the Keeneland surface, in an allowance race last October, and I would not be surprised at all if this colt wins. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Alvarado.

This brings us to the number six horse Prince Will I Am. The son of Victory Gallop has not raced since finishing way behind in the Fountain of Youth Stakes eight weeks ago. Prior to that, he had run second to the highly regarded Drosselmeyer in a nine furlong allowance race at Gulfstream Park. This will be his first start on a synthetic track. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel.

Then there is the number seven horse Lonesome Street. The son of Broken Vow was a late running second to Exhi in the eight and a half furlong Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park three weeks ago. His morning line odds are 12-1, which seem fair, but he may have a shot at stealing the race. He will be carrying only 117 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.

Now we come to the number eight horse Exhi. The son of Maria's Mon, as I mentioned earlier, won the mile and a sixteenth Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. He will have to carry co-top weight of 121 pounds, but I think that he is up to the challenge. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, and will likely be on or near the lead. He is trained by Todd Pletcher, which seems to be a good thing right now.

This brings to the number nine horse Heavenville. The son of Oflee Wild has already started twelve times, winning three, finishing second four times, and third twice. He has been consistent, although this will be a big step up in class for him. Carrying 117 pounds, he will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. He might just be in the mix, as he is proven on this track. He broke his maiden here last April.

Now we move on to the other Todd Pletcher colt, the number ten horse Connemara. The son of Giant's Causeway has never finished worse than third in five starts, but comes into the Lexington Stakes off of a third place finish, beaten nearly six lengths, in the Lane's End Stakes behind Dean's Kitten and Northern Giant. According to Todd Pletcher, Connemara is unlikely for the Kentucky Derby, although a win here would give him the necessary earnings. Actually, it appears as though Connemara is the only colt in the race who can make the Derby with a win here. But anyway, he will be ridden by Russel Baze, and will carry co-top weight of 121 pounds. He should run well here, although it will be his first start on Keeneland's Polytrack.

Then there is the number eleven horse Kettle River. The son of Congaree has only raced four times, breakings his maiden on the second try last November, winning an allowance race in early January, and finishing off the board in the Sham Stakes in early March. He is the morning line second choice, along with Connemara, and should be able to run a good race. This will be his first start at Keeneland, although he has been training there for a while. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Castellano.

Finally, we come to the number twelve horse Chief Counsel. The son of Officer has started six times, finishing in the top three five times and fourth one other time. He comes into the Lexington off of a fourth place finish behind Dean's Kitten, Northern Giant, and Connemara in the Lane's End Stakes. I can't really see this colt winning, especially from gate twelve, but he did overcome a bad trip in the Lane's End to come running late, so he may have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux.

So I have finally gotten through all of the entries. Here are my selections. . .

1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked

Now, I must admit that the field is very tough field and I am probably wrong about the order of finish, but I am pretty confident. I realize that Kettle River, Krypton, and others that I have low on my list have excellent shots at winning, but I like Call Shot and Uptowncharlybrown, with Connemara to rally for third. My final thought is this: Prince Will I Am has the potential to improve greatly on the Keeneland surface and I would not even blink if he was to roar from behind and blast to a fifty length victory. (Okay, I would be blinking if he won by fifty, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if he won.)

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

Now, the Lexington is the only really Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks prep going on this weekend, but I will mention that the first two stakes races for two year olds are being run this Saturday. Both are at Sunland Park, and both are four and a half furlongs in distance. One is for colts and geldings, the other for fillies. They are both called the Copper Top Futurity.

The first one (for fillies) has drawn a field of ten, but the number nine horse Shug's Midnight has scratched, leaving only nine runners. The morning line favorite at 8-5 is the number five horse Shamrock Girl. Tin Can Kitty should also receive some money at 3-1. Of the lot, I like Shamrock Girl. Her workouts have been nice and she is currently undefeated in two starts. Diamond Charm might also have a shot.

The second one (for colts) also drew a field of ten, but after three scratches, the field has been reduced to seven. The slight morning line favorite is Dodson at 5-2, with Ting at 7-2 and Verny at 4-1. The three of them are undefeated, each of them having raced once.

Of course, the odds of any of these horses becoming a Kentucky Derby winner a fairly small, but you never know where the next great one will come from.

Now I believe that I will move on to recapping what happened last week.

RACE RECAPS

To begin with, I'll discuss the Blue Grass Stakes. The grade I prep for the Kentucky Derby drew a tough field of nine, and as I said last week, I could see eight of those nine horse winning easily. The only colt I couldn't see winning was Stately Victor.

Here are the results.

1 Stately Victor
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 First Dude
4 Interactif
5 Codoy
6 Make Music for Me
7 Pleasant Prince
8 Aikenite
9 Odysseus

. . . versus my selections.

1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor

Wow.

Didn't see that coming.

I would have been closer if I had reversed my list.

Stately Victor? 40-1? If anybody had told me before the race that he would win, I would have said "No way." And then he won by four and a quarter lengths, with Paddy O'Prado second!

I was completely wrong about this race, as I usually am when it comes to Keeneland's Polytrack. My pick, Aikenite, just didn't fire. Nor did Pleasant Prince, who desperately needed earnings to get into the Derby. Unfortunately, due to his seventh place finish, he is forced to run back in the Derby Trial next week. As for Odysseus, he came out of the race with a bone chip, and is now off the Derby trail.

The race set up exactly how I expected it to. Odysseus went right to the front, followed closely by Paddy O'Prado. Unfortunately, Odysseus did not hang around as long as I thought he would. Paddy O'Prado took the lead after about three quarters of a mile. Aikenite raced evenly just behind them, with First Dude also close. Moving around the final turn, Odysseus gave way and faded to last. Paddy O'Prado looked like a sure winner, but Stately Victor came roaring from sixth after three quarters of a mile to grab a four and a quarter length victory. Paddy O'Prado hung on for Second, with First Dude coming on for third. Aikenite, despite looking very good as they rounded the final turn, faded to finish eighth. Pleasant Prince had no excuses while finishing seventh. I guess that he just didn't care for the surface. He apparently emerged from the race okay, for he is going to run back in the Derby Trial next week to try and get the earnings to make the Kentucky Derby.

That said, it's time to move on to the Arkansas Derby.

Of the two big Derby preps last week, this was the one I was anticipating the most, for my Kentucky Derby pick Dublin was running. I knew that he would have his work cut out for him, as a solid field had turned out to face him. After carefully examining the pace set up, I deduced that Noble's Promise was the one to beat. I figured that Dublin would finish second and Super Saver third.

However, while looking over the entries, I noticed the number eight horse Line of David. He seemed to be a nice enough horse, and I knew that he would be the one to beat if he got a clear lead, but of course, that couldn't possibly happen with Super Saver running, right?

Wrong.

Much to my surprise, Line of David blasted away from the gate and had a commanding two and a half length lead after a quarter of a mile had been run. Super Saver was content to sit in second, ignoring the runaway leader!

After three eighths of a mile, I knew that Line of David was not going to be caught. As they turned for home, I thought that Dublin was going to catch him, and I cheered my favorite for the length of the stretch, but he fell a half length short while finishing third. Super Saver was second, with Line of David the winner by a head.

I suppose you’re wondering what happened to Noble's Promise. Well, he broke last and got squeezed at the start, forcing him to change his running style. The favorite did manage to get as close as fourth, but ended up finishing fifth. However, he came out of the race with several cuts on his legs and a slight lung infection, so his effort really wasn't that bad. It is unknown whether or not he will be able to make the Kentucky Derby, but I hope that he will recover in time. As for Dublin, he is still my top pick for the Kentucky Derby.

So here are the results . . .

1 Line of David
2 Super Saver
3 Dublin
4 Uh Oh Bango
5 Noble's Promise
6 New Madrid
7 Berberis
8 Pulsion
9 Northern Giant

. . . versus my selections.

1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid

So I was wrong once again. Like I said, I figured that there was no way for Line of David to get a clear lead, and I figured that he would fold as they turned for home. But it's possible that he wouldn't have folded even if Super Saver had pushed him, for he ran fractions of 22 3/5 and 46 1/5. A brilliant run, an excellent ride, and he's on his way to the Derby. As for Uh Oh Bango, who came flying late to finish fourth, he came out of the race with a fractured leg and will not be racing again for at least four months, if not more. It was very sad, for I liked him a lot for the Derby and Belmont, but he will be back.

OTHER RACE RESULTS

Although I am running out of time, I will take a moment to mention a few other races that might affect the outcome of the Triple Crown. (I don't know how many times I have repeated that line, but I like it, and it says exactly what I want to say.)

The first race was the one mile Premiere Stakes for three year olds and up at Lone Star Park. Not exactly the prime spot to prep a Triple Crown horse, but you never know. The winner, and my pick, was Coyote Legend, who I believe was the only three year old running. He got a very good trip, and just managed to outfight Huntersrunaway to the wire. It was another half length back to Poltergeist, who actually made an attempt to make the Kentucky Derby last year. He ran in the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes, and Arkansas Derby, and I think he even hit the board in one of them, but I don't really remember. Anyway, congratulations to Coyote Legend for defeating older horses, and may you continue to win for a long, long time.

The second race was a six and a half furlong allowance race for three year olds at Santa Anita Park. The slightest favorite was Lions Story, but I liked Concord Point. It was a very good race, and Lions Story did run well, but it was all Concord Point, who went wire-to-wire at odds of 2-1. It was a length and a half back to the 12-1 shot Royce, who just hold off Lions Story for the place. It's possible that we might just see Concord Point in one of the Triple Crown races . . .

This brings us to the one mile Instant Racing Stakes for three year old fillies at Oaklawn Park. Run on the same day as the Arkansas Derby, the heavy favorite was Decelerator, and she proved that she deserved it, winning by a neck over Vertical Vision. Bell's Shoes finished third. It's possible that we might see both Decelerator and Vertical Vision in Kentucky for the Kentucky Oaks, but they may not have the graded earnings necessary.

And finally, we come to the one mile on the turf Appalachian Stakes for three year old fillies at Keeneland. The heavy favorite was Rose Catherine, but my pick was Check the Label. With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, Check the Label came from just off the pace to grab a three quarter length victory over Bay to Bay. Rose Catherine finished third.

And that is all. I'm looking forward to a great day of racing, as the Kentucky Derby comes closer and closer. Enjoy!

-Keelerman

THE TWENTY, as of April 9th, 2010

1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I've decided to put him back on top for one reason only --- I think that D. Wayne Lukas is one of the greatest trainers in history and is going to have this colt ready for the Kentucky Derby. I am confident that this colt is going to run well tomorrow.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
His final Kentucky Derby prep was a disaster, and I'm a little concerned that he will be afraid to run on the rail from now on. But it is obvious that he is very brave, and I just loved the way that he re-rallied and kept going to get third.
3. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
He ran the race I wanted to see him run, but I'm still not convinced that he is the next Secretariat. I'm still wondering how he will respond to the fast pace that will come in the Kentucky Derby.
4. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
He wasn't flattered by Schoolyard Dream's fourth in the Wood Memorial, but I do think that he is much better than the latter. He doesn't have to win the Blue Grass, just run a nice race.
5. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
She comes home faster than just about anybody and I am positive that she is Triple Crown caliber. If she was to be entered in the Kentucky Derby, I might just have to make her my pick.
6. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
Not only did he wire the Santa Anita Derby, he did it impressively. All of a sudden, I start to wonder if he actually can get the Kentucky Derby distance. Obviously, he didn't have to go very fast early in last Saturday, but perhaps he'll get the same kind of luck that Spend a Buck did.
7. ENDORSEMENT Distorted Humor - Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy Shannon Ritter
He is obviously very talented, but has yet to be thoroughly tested. Was the Sunland Derby a fluke? It's hard to say. All I know is that he mowed down a very classy colt with relative ease, turned in a fast time, and looks ready to keep improving.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
There's something about this colt that bothers me. I'm not sure what it is, but I have the feeling that he is not going to run well in the Kentucky Derby. Something about him says to me that he just isn't going to do it.
9. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
Nothing went his way in the Wood Memorial, but he still managed to get third, beaten only a head for second. I think that he is going to run huge in the Derby at impressive odds.
10. CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
As if Lookin at Lucky's trip in the Santa Anita Derby wasn't bad enough, I think that Caracortado's was even worse. He was following Lookin at Lucky when Lucky had his meeting with Who's Up, so Caracortado was forced to back up and circle the entire field. Then the runner up Setsuko took his running room, and when he finally did get running, it was too late. He ended up fourth. If he makes it to the Kentucky Derby, he will be underbet. I still like him.
11. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
He'll be well bet in the Arkansas Derby, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is sent off as the favorite. Still has to answer some stamina questions, but if he wins impressively tomorrow, he'll be one to watch in the Kentucky Derby.
12. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
Drew the rail in the Arkansas Derby, but he is the morning line favorite. I think that he is going to have to go to the front tomorrow, but if he can hold off everybody else, he'll be one of the favorites in Kentucky.
13. SETSUKO
Closed really fast in the Santa Anita Derby, despite the slow fractions. I'm not convinced that he is going to improve on dirt, but it's obvious that he has class. Does he have the earnings to get to the Kentucky Derby? We'll see.
14. PLEASANT PRINCE Indy King - Archduchess, by Wesley Ward
Had a very sharp workout at Keeneland, so he probably deserves to be the morning line favorite for the Blue Grass. His sire never raced, but his pedigree says that he might have been able to go a distance.
15. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
I think that he will be one of the favorites for the Blue Grass Stakes, and I would not be surprised to see him win. He's obviously very talented, and he looks ready to run a great race.
16. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
This colt is going to present his case in the Blue Grass Stakes, but I just don't think that he is Triple Crown caliber. He would need to win very easily tomorrow to be one of the main contenders at Churchill.
17. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
I wasn't very impressed with his Louisiana Derby, and I think that he is a few notches below the best, but who knows what he can do. He is by Unbridled's Song, whose foals seem to have some distance issues, but perhaps Mission Impazible is different.
18. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
He ran well to win the Illinois Derby, but I just don't think that he is going to go a mile and a quarter against the group he'll be facing. I'm sure that he will win his fair share of stakes races this summer, and may even be in contention for the Preakness, but he just doesn't look like a Derby horse.
19. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
He actually ran a very good race in the Wood Memorial, and refused to let Awesome Act get past him. I respect Calvin Borel, especially when he is riding at Churchill Downs, and I believe that Calvin will get a great race out of this colt in the Derby.
20a. AIKENITE
I couldn't decide whether to put this colt or Backtalk in the number twenty spot, so I put them both on. I expect a huge effort from him in the Blue Grass Stakes, and I would not be surprised at all if he won. He doesn't look like a Triple Crown colt to me, but a big effort tomorrow could change my opinion.
20b. BACKTALK Smarty Jones - Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed Thomas M. Amoss
I'm going to take a shot and leave this colt in my Top Twenty(one). Despite the fact that he was well beaten in the Illinois Derby, I think that he could improve if blinkers are added. Also, I think that his workout is what did him in. He already has enough earnings to get to the Kentucky Derby, so who knows? Maybe he'll pull a Mine That Bird!

WATCH VERY CLOSELY

ALPHIE'S BET Ran an okay race in the Santa Anita Derby. Graded earnings are a concern.
CODOY Heading to the Blue Grass.
CONNEMARA Will get another shot at graded earnings in the Lexington.
CONVEYANCE May lack the stamina.
COOL BULLET Very impressive in the Hansel Stakes.
DEAN'S KITTEN Impressive in the Lane's End.
D’FUNNYBONE May lack the stamina.
DISCREETLY MINE Not crying for distance.
DISTORTED DAVE Might have a shot if he wins the Lexington.
DROSSELMEYER Gets one last chance in the Lexington.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY Impressive in the Bay Shore, will run in the Derby Trial, and possibly the Kentucky Derby.
HOMEBOYKRIS Will train up to the Kentucky Derby.
JACKSON BEND Nice second in the Wood Memorial, may have a shot in the Kentucky Derby if Calvin stays on him.
MENDIP Heard a rumor that he has been injured.
NORDIC TRUCE Three-for-three after Transylvania win.
NORTHERN GIANT Gets a final chance at graded earnings in the Arkansas Derby.
PULSION Set to run in the Arkansas Derby.
RON THE GREEK Graded earnings are a major concern.
RULE May lack the stamina.
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS Disappointing fourth in the Wood Memorial.
SKIPSHOT Fifth in the Santa Anita Derby, graded earnings are a big concern.
STAY PUT Nice in the Louisiana Derby, graded earnings are a concern.
TIZ THE ONE I don't know where he's heading. Perhaps the Lexington?
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Is he off the Triple Crown Trail?
YAWANNA TWIST Second in the Illinois Derby, graded earnings are a concern.

KEEP AN EYE ON

A LITTLE WARM I don't think that he has the stamina.
BULLS AND BEARS Perhaps the Preakness or Belmont.
BIM BAM Is he aiming for the Triple Crown?
CARDIFF GIANT Disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby.
COLIZEO I don't think he has the ability.
CONCORD POINT Where will he start next?
DAVE IN DIXIE Disappointing in the Illinois Derby.
DIXIE COMMANDER Out of opportunities.
EXHI Interesting win in the Rushaway, probably doesn't have the ability.
FIRST DUDE Back for the Blue Grass Stakes.
FLY DOWN Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
GAME ON DUDE Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
LAUS DEO Where is he?
MAXIMUS RULER I don't think that he can get the distance.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR I don't think that he can get the distance.
OUTLAW MAN Out of opportunities.
PADDY O'PRADO Gets his shot in the Blue Grass.
PEPPI KNOWS Just about out of opportunities.
RADIOHEAD Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
SASSY IMAGE Where is she?
SOARING EMPIRE Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Ran third in the Sunland Derby, I don't think that he is quite ready.
THE PROGRAM Just about out of opportunities.
TIZ CHROME Where will he run next?
WORKING FOR HOPS Nice win in the Grindstone.

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 9th, 2010

I can hardly believe that it is just three weeks until the Kentucky Derby. The final major prep races are being run tomorrow, and some tough fields have turned out to compete for their spot in the Kentucky Derby. I suspect that we will see some great performances by top horses tomorrow, as well as some surprises. It's going to be a great set of races. Let's begin by looking over the Blue Grass Stakes.

BLUE GRASS STAKES (gr. I) ---- Keeneland, Race 10, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)

You have to give credit to this group, they are going to provide us with a spectacular race tomorrow. The field of nine is very evenly matched, and I wouldn't be surprised to see anyone here win. (Okay, I would be surprised if Stately Victor won, but you get the idea.)

The nine furlong race is run at Keeneland, which has always had an interesting surface. Like most synthetic tracks, Keeneland's Polytrack seems to favor turf horses, but Keeneland's surface is just plain unusual. In 2009, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was General Quarters. He ended up tenth in the Derby. In 2008, the Blue Grass Stakes winner was Monba. He finished last. In 2007, it was Dominican who won the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished eleventh in the Derby. In 2006, the Blue Grass winner was Sinister Minister. He ended up sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby.

Of course, the track was odd even when it was dirt. In 2005, Bandini won the Blue Grass by six lengths and was well bet in the Kentucky Derby. He ended up nineteenth.

There seems to be a pattern here. It looks to me like the winner of the Blue Grass Stakes never fires in the Kentucky Derby. But let's take a look at the horses who were beaten in the Blue Grass Stakes. . .

In 2009, Hold Me Back finished second in the Blue Grass. Although he ran twelfth in the Derby, he did return to finish second behind Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird in the Travers Stakes. Finishing fifth in the 2009 Blue Grass was Join in the Dance, who set the pace in that year's Derby before finishing seventh. Finishing seventh in the Blue Grass was Charitable Man, who went on to win the Peter Pan Stakes and finish fourth in the Belmont Stakes.

But wait, it gets better! In 2008, Cowboy Cal finished second in the Blue Grass Stakes. Although he finished well back in Kentucky, he went on to become an excellent grade I winning turf miler. Finishing tenth in that year's Blue Grass was Pyro, who failed to fire in the Kentucky Derby but went on to become a grade I winner.

In 2007, Street Sense lost the Blue Grass Stakes by a nose, but rebounded to win the Kentucky Derby. He then finished second by a nose in the Preakness and went on to win the Jim Dandy and the Travers.

And finally, in 2005, Closing Argument finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes, but returned to run second in the Kentucky Derby, beaten only a half a length at odds of 71-1.

So that's why I'm going to be watching the colts who are beaten tomorrow, as well as the winner. Now that my big statistic analysis is over, let's take a look at the entries.

The number one horse is Odysseus. The son of Malibu Moon comes into the Blue Grass off of a desperate nose win in last month's Tampa Bay Derby. Originally, Odysseus was here strictly to prep for the Triple Crown, but now it looks like he is going to need some additional earnings if he is going to make the Kentucky Derby. A top three finish, or perhaps even a top four finish, would be sufficient, but it is possible that he could be kept out of the Derby. The 7-2 morning line second choice will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh and will carry 123 pounds, the same as everybody else.

Then there is the number two horse First Dude. The son of Stephen Got Even ran fifth in last month's Florida Derby, and is returning only three weeks later for one last shot at getting the graded earnings necessary to make the Kentucky Derby. He was beaten by six and a quarter lengths in that race, but has a good shot at running better tomorrow. Four of his five career starts have been on dirt, but it is interesting to note that he has raced at Keeneland before, finishing second in his first start to Chief Counsel, who just finished fourth in the Lane's End Stakes two weeks ago, despite going seven wide turning for home. I believe that First Dude may be a serious sleeper. He will be ridden tomorrow by Ramon Dominguez, who has not ridden him since October last year.

This brings us to the number three horse Stately Victor. The son of Ghostzapper’s morning line odds are 30-1, but he does have Alan Garcia in the saddle. He has been racing in allowance races lately, and not very well. It would be a huge surprise if he was to win, but you never know what might happen. Perhaps he can go wire-to-wire.

Now we come to the number four horse Make Music for Me. I have liked this colt for many months now, and am looking forward to seeing him race tomorrow. The son of Bernstein comes in to the Blue Grass off of a win in the Pasadena Stakes on the turf at Santa Anita. It was the colt’s first victory, although he had been running in, and running well, in more than one grade I stakes last year. He will be ridden by Mike Smith.

Then there is the number five horse Codoy. The son of Bernstein finished first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes last February before being disqualified for extensive interference. He is the 30-1 morning line longshot, along with Stately Victor. Codoy will be ridden by John Velazquez.

This brings us to the number six horse Pleasant Prince. The son of Indy King is the morning line favorite, and actually didn't intend to run in this race. In his last start, he lost the Florida Derby by a nose. Had he won, he would have been trained up to the Kentucky Derby. But because he has only $162,500 in graded earnings, it looks as though he will be kept out of the Derby unless he picks up some money here tomorrow. It's not going to be great, running three times in six weeks, but it's not as bad as it could be. He has been training very sharply, and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.

Now we come to the number seven horse Paddy O'Prado. The son of El Prado has not raced since winning the grade III Palm Beach Stakes on March 6th. His run in that race was very impressive, as he raced very close to the lead through excellent fractions before drawing off to win by two and a half, running the mile and an eighth in 1:45 2/5, a very, very good time. Finishing second in that race was Dean's Kitten, who has gone on to win the Lane's End Stakes. Despite the fact that Paddy O'Prado has 10-1 morning line odds, I think that he is one of the major contenders and will definitely be in the mix. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who has won three Kentucky Derbies.

Then there is the number eight horse Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True has not raced since finishing third to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth, but that is certainly not an effort to be ashamed of. The seven week layoff coming to this race is a bit of a concern, but he should be ready to fire a big one. He has shown that he likes this track, as he fell only a half length short last year of catching Noble's Promise in the grade I Breeders Futurity. With morning line odds of 4-1, he has a big chance at upsetting Pleasant Prince, especially with Garrett Gomez in the saddle.

Finally, we come to the number nine horse Interactif. The son of Broken Vow has been very consistent, but has not won a race since the Bourbon Stakes last October. Since then, he has finished a close third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, second in the Hallandale Beach Stakes, and second in the San Felipe Stakes. The latter was his first race on a synthetic track, and he fell only a half length short of catching top Kentucky Derby hopeful Sidney's Candy. Interactif certainly has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, and he has a pedigree that reads dirt, but I think that he is at his best on turf. Anyway, he will be ridden tomorrow by Rafael Bejarano.

So, who do I like? It's tough to pick a favorite. I would love to see every runner win. I will be personally rooting for Odysseus, because I would love to see him in the Kentucky Derby, but here are my selections. . .

1 Aikenite
2 Interactif
3 Make Music for Me
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Odysseus
6 First Dude
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Codoy
9 Stately Victor

Man, that was tough. The field for this race is incredible. But as much as I like Odysseus, and as much as I like him for the Kentucky Derby, I don't think that he is going to take to the synthetics. I feel the same way about First Dude, even though he has run here before. I can see Paddy O'Prado winning tomorrow, but I just have the suspicion that he isn't going to repeat his Palm Beach Stakes run here tomorrow. I think that this is going to be a Todd Pletcher sweep, with his two colts running one-two, just like Monba and Cowboy Cal did in 2008. I love Make Music for Me, and I have been following his career since last December, but I just don't know if he is good enough to handle this group. So my actual selections: Aikenite and Interactif. Sentimental selections: Odysseus and Make Music for Me.

Now lets move on to the Arkansas Derby.

ARKANSAS DERBY (gr. I) ---- Oaklawn Park, Race 9, April 10th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)

No matter which way you look at it, the Arkansas Derby is going to be one of the best in many years. Not only is the field top class, but it is evenly matched. Nine fabulous colts have turned out for at shot at the $1,000,000 purse. Nine of those colts are winners. Six of them are stakes placed. Four of them are stakes winners. Three of them are graded stakes winners. Two of them are grade I winners. One of them is an Eclipse award finalist. One great field. I would not be surprised at all to see the Kentucky Derby winner emerge from this race. Let's take a closer look at who's running. . .

The number one horse is Super Saver. The son of Maria's Mon is the morning line favorite, and has been extremely consistent so far, never finishing worse than fourth in five races. As a matter of fact, he has only finished fourth once, when he was beaten two lengths for all the money in the grade I Champagne Stakes. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a third place finish, beaten only a half a length, in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Odysseus and Schoolyard Dreams. He will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who rode him to his best victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last year. He will likely set the pace tomorrow, and will definitely be in the mix. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as Dublin, Noble's Promise, and Uh Oh Bango will carry. All of the other entries will carry 118 pounds.

This brings us to the number two horse Dublin. The son of Afleet Alex won the Hopeful Stakes last year before running poorly in the Champagne Stakes and the Iroquis Stakes. However, it was discovered that he had a breathing problem, which explained his poor showings. It was corrected a few months ago, and since then he has been racing very well, running second to Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes and third in the Rebel Stakes behind Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise. His trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, has won thirteen Triple Crown races, and I would love to see him add one more. A win tomorrow would certainly make Dublin one of the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. He will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who has been riding quite well at Oaklawn lately. It is also interesting to note that Dublin was born in April, so he will just be turning three this month. I think we will see a great run from him tomorrow.

Now we come to the morning line second choice, who I believe will be the favorite by the time they get to the gate. The colt is Noble's Promise. The son of Cuvee has been even more consistent than Super Saver, never finishing worse than third in third in seven races. He has won three of those races, and finished second in another three. He would have been the champion two year old male last year had Lookin at Lucky not been around. Noble's Promise has run behind Lookin at Lucky in each of their three meetings. But now he has a chance to emerge from the champion's shadow and prove himself to be Kentucky Derby caliber. He will be ridden by Robby Albarado, who I'm sure will get a good run out of him, but Noble's Promise does have stamina issues. He is not bred to get a mile and a quarter and it's possible that a mile and an eighth is out of his range. We'll see what he does tomorrow.

Then there is the number four horse Northern Giant. The son of Giant's Causeway looks bred to go a mile and a quarter, but graded earnings are a concern. Currently sitting with $127,000, he would need to finish first, second, or possibly third to get into the Kentucky Derby. He enters the Arkansas Derby off of a runner up performance to Dean's Kitten in the Lane's End Stakes just two weeks ago. He may be coming back a little quick, but perhaps he can handle it. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, which make him Dublin's stablemate. He will be ridden tomorrow, for the first time, by Victor Espinoza. If the track turns up sloppy tomorrow, (it doesn't look like it will) I don't think anyone can beat him.

This brings us to the number five horse Uh Oh Bango. The son of Top Hit may be just a bit below the top three year old form but has been very consistent, like many of the other horses in this race. He comes into the Arkansas Derby off of a fourth place finish behind Lookin at Lucky, Noble's Promise, and Dublin in the Rebel Stakes, beaten six and three quarter lengths. However, he has the potential to improve off of that effort, as it was his first start in over three months. He might just surprise everyone and throw in a winning run. He will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan.

Now we come to the number six horse New Madrid. The son of Rock Hard Ten has a very nice pedigree, and has been racing rather well lately. He has only raced three times. In his debut last November at Churchill Downs, he was knocked off stride and failed to threaten while finishing sixth. In his next race, however, he ran quite well, coming four wide to finish second in a maiden race at Oaklawn Park behind Endorsement, who went on to win the Sunland Derby. In his last start, he succeeded in breaking his maiden, winning a one mile and a sixteenth maiden race by a length and a quarter over Tiz Dangerous. He does appear to be several notches below top three year old form, but he is trained by Tim Ice, who won the Belmont Stakes last year with Summer Bird. Anyway, New Madrid will be ridden by A. Castellano Jr.

Then there is the number seven horse Berberis. The son of Southern Image did not race at two, but began his career on January 3rd in a six furlong maiden race at Fair Grounds. He raced far back for much of the race, but rallied to take second, two lengths behind the winner What's New. In his second start, at a mile and a sixteenth, he stayed closer to the pace, but was caught three wide on both turns and ended up third behind Fast Alex and Elkhorn Creek. However, he was only beaten a length and a quarter for the win, and it came as no surprise when he did break his maiden in his next race. Running a mile and forty yards on a slow track at Fair Grounds, he once again came from far back to win by just under two lengths, defeating Capote Ruler and Elkhorn Creek. Like New Madrid, he would really have to step up to be in the mix tomorrow, but it's possible that he might. He will be ridden for the first time by A. Gryder, and is trained by Steven Asmussen, who trained 2007 Preakness winner Curlin and 2009 Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra.

This brings us to the number eight horse Line of David. The son of Lion Heart has been rather impressive lately, although his only two wins have come on turf. He seems to be improving, and will likely challenge Super Saver for the early lead. His last two races, both wins, have come in wire-to-wire fashion, and he has been keeping some pretty decent company. It is possible that he could contend tomorrow. He will be ridden for the first time by J. Court.

Finally, we come to the number nine horse Pulsion. The son of Include had always been a deep closer, that is, until his last race. In the Florida Derby, he broke sharply a set the pace for three quarters of a mile before giving in to Rule, and eventually fading to sixth. However, the pace he set that day was very fast, and he will likely get a slower on today. If he sticks with his new running style, he might just be able to hold off everybody. He will be ridden by Corey Nakatani, who rode him for the first time in the Florida Derby.

Those are all of the entries. Now I've just got to put them in the order I think they will finish, which is easier said than done.

After much thought, here are my selections. . .

1 Noble's Promise
2 Dublin
3 Super Saver
4 Pulsion
5 Northern Giant
6 Uh Oh Bango
7 Line of David
8 Berberis
9 New Madrid

It was tough to put them in order, but I'm confident that I got it right. I can't see anybody beating Noble's Promise at this distance, although I will be cheering for Dublin to catch him. As I have said on prior posts, Dublin is my Kentucky Derby pick, but I just don't see him catching Noble's Promise. Super Saver has obvious talent, but like Noble's Promise, has a few stamina questions. I think that Northern Giant is coming back a little fast, and that he may not be quite as good as the others. So my actual pick is Noble's Promise, but I will be cheering for Dublin and Northern Giant.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

Although I am running out of time, I'll take a minute to mention a few other interesting races that are being run today.

An interesting field has turned out for the Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. The one mile grade III race for three year old fillies drew the undefeated She'll Be Doggone, as well as stakes placed C C's Pal and Indian Burn. It should be an interesting race, and may affect the outcome of the Kentucky Oaks. She'll Be Doggone looks tough to beat, but I believe that Volare Cantare can give her a run for her money.

Then there is the Instant Racing Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The one mile race for three year old fillies drew an eight horse field, but Tiz Miz Sue has scratched, leaving only seven running. The heavy morning line favorite at even money is Decelerator, who I think deserves to be the favorite. Bell's Shoes and Washington Bridge are expected to be her biggest threats, but I wouldn't ignore Best Reward either.

Finally, there is the nine furlong La Puente Stakes at Santa Anita. On turf for three year olds, the race drew a field of nine horses before Coloursoftheglen scratched, reducing the field to eight. The morning line favorite in this tight race is Fantastic Pick at 7-2. Then there's Ace of Aces at 4-1, Lucky Race at 9-2, and Dream Nettie at 5-1. Personally, I like Runaway Bandido, with his 6-1 morning line odds. I just have this feeling that he is sitting on a big race. Also, at 15-1, El Mirage King is worth a shot. He might just be in the mix.

And that is all. Now I shall quickly recap the races that were run last week, beginning with the Wood Memorial.

RACE RESULTS

The Wood Memorial was supposed to be a close race. Four of the six entries appeared to be very evenly matched. I figured the top four finishers would be separated by about three or four lengths.

Boy was I wrong.

As it turned out, it was all about Eskendereya, who destroyed the field with amazing ease, winning by nine and three quarter lengths. In his dust, Jackson Bend outfought Awesome Act for second, with Schoolyard Dreams, my personal pick, fourth.

So here are the results. . .

1 Eskendereya
2 Jackson Bend
3 Awesome Act
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella

. . . versus my selections.

1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Carnivore
6 Most Happy Fella

As it turns out, Jackson Bend proved to me once again that he is tougher than I thought. He just wouldn't let Awesome Act pass him for the place. Schoolyard Dreams, I'm afraid, just failed to fire the way I thought he would. But congratulations to Eskendereya, Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, etc. They now how the probable Kentucky Derby favorite. However, I still don't think that Eskendereya is going to win the Kentucky Derby. I know that I am part of the minority, but I am just not convinced that he is a super horse. We'll see what happens this May.

Now I turn my attention to the Santa Anita Derby, and the disaster that happened there.

The race was anything but free of traffic. The winner was Sidney's Candy, who definitely ran a winning race. He won by four and a half lengths, with Setsuko and Lookin at Lucky in second and third. But the latter had a nightmare trip which was quite possibly the worst I have ever seen.

First, he had trouble at the start. He was squeezed coming down the homestretch for the first time, squeezed one or two times after that, but the real disaster was on the final turn. Who's Up, under Victor Espinoza, came in on Lookin at Lucky and caused Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky's jockey, to pull the colt up sharply. For most horses, it would have been a disaster, and it might have caused a fall. But despite dropping back considerably and losing all of his momentum, Lookin at Lucky still re-rallied in between horses and got up in time to save third. Caracortado, who was directly behind Lookin at Lucky when the latter stumbled, was forced to back up and circle the entire field. While doing so, Setsuko took his path, forcing Caracortado to alter course once again. Still, he managed to rally for fourth. There was a steward's inquiry about the incident on the final turn, but no changes were made to the final order of finish.

So here are the final results. . .

1 Sidney's Candy
2 Setsuko
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Caracortado
5 Skipshot
6 Alphie's Bet
7 Thomas Baines
8 Posse Power
9 Who's Up
10 Cardiff Giant

. . . versus my selections.

1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines

So, I was wrong about just about everything. It's hard to say if I would have been closer had the race been run cleanly, but the fact is, it wasn't. After the race, it was announced that Garrett Gomez had punched Victor Espinoza, possibly more than once, for causing the incident on the far turn. One thing led to another and Victor Espinoza was suspended for three days and Garrett Gomez received a $750 fine. I won't type out everything that happened, but it sounded wild.

Now I shall quickly discuss the Illinois Derby.

The five hundred thousand dollar race, grade III this year rather than grade II, had drawn what I thought was a very evenly matched field, but at the wire only two mattered. They were American Lion amd Yawanna Twist. They were eleven and one quarter lengths in front of the other six runners, obviously the best.

The winner was American Lion. The son of Tiznow had been running rather poorly out in California on the synthetic tracks, but came east to try dirt for the first time. He responded with a wire-to-wire victory. Yawanna Twist, who was never worse than third through out, made a run at him turning for him and as the hit the top of the stretch it looked like he was going to go right by. But American Lion proved tough and turned him away before drawing off to a two and three quarter length victory. Backtalk finished third, a neck in front of Turf Melody.

So here are the final results. . .

1 American Lion
2 Yawanna Twist
3 Backtalk
4 Turf Melody
5 Dave in Dixie
6 Boulder Creek
7 Stephen's Got Hope
8 Game Ball

. . . versus my selections.

1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek

I was close, but not quite on. It is obvious to me that Backtalk's workout did him in, for he ran like a tired horse. I expect him to rebound nicely in his next race, which might just be the Kentucky Derby. As for American Lion, congratulations. Some have made note of his poor final time (1:51 1/5 for a mile and an eighth) but I heard that they were running into a stiff wind, which undoubtedly slowed them down a bit.

So, it was a good race. Now let's take a look at some of the smaller races that were run over the last week.

OTHER RACE RESULTS

To begin, there was the Bay Shore Stakes. The seven furlong race for three year olds at Aqueduct drew Eightyfiveinafifty, who was last seen going through the outer rail at the same track while attempting to run in the Whirlaway Stakes. He came back in a big way on the undercard of the Wood Memorial, starting just a bit slowly but racing up to take the lead and never look back. He won by two and a half lengths as the heavy favorite, running his seven furlongs in an excellent 1:21 4/5. His next race will be the Derby Trial Stakes, and should he win there, the Kentucky Derby. Very, very interesting.

Then there was the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. The favorite for the mile and a sixteenth three year old filly race was She Be Wild, champion two year old filly last year, but in the end, she was upset by Evening Jewel and It's Tea Time. The former won in wire-to-wire fashion, just holding off the latter by a neck. It was another three quarters of a length back to She Be Wild. Second choice Negligee, who was making her three year old debut, finished a dull seventh.

I should also mention the Beaumont Stakes, run at Keeneland on the seventh. The about seven furlong race for three year old fillies was won by Franny Freud, who was sent off as the heavy favorite. She won by nearly five lengths, defeating Chantilly Nayla and Diva Delite. All three of them may head to the Kentucky Oaks.

Then there was the nine furlong Providencia Stakes at Santa Anita Park. For three year old fillies, the favorite was In the Slips, but as it turned out, she was upset by City to City and Andina. The formed won the race in off-the-pace fashion, steadily moving up from eighth to defeat Andina by a half length. It was another length back to In the Slips. Cozi Rosie, the slight second choice, finished seventh. City to City may be one to watch in the Kentucky, should she go.

Now I come to a race which may eventually affect the Triple Crown Trail, but if so, not for many months. The race was a four and a half furlong maiden race for two year old fillies at Keeneland, and the winner was Nina Fever, who broke poorly but raced up to take the early lead a never look back. At the top of the stretch, she led by five, and by the time she hit the finish line she was in front by eight. Keeping My Focus rallied for second at 28-1, with Tristanme coming home third. Who knows? Perhaps Nina Fever will become a great filly, and will one day be compared to Zenyatta! But for now, she is the first winner for her sire Borrego. Good job Borrego!

Then there was the seven furlong Ocala Breeders' Sales Sophomore Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for three year old colts. The winner was Thank U Philippe, a fine colt who I have always been fond of. He won the race in come from behind fashion by a neck, with My Charming Clyde coming in second and Good Lord third. No Shenanigans finished fourth, only a length and a half away from Thank U Philippe. It was another fourteen and a quarter lengths back to the fifth place finisher, Black Diamond Cat. El Wildcat and Bad Medicine trailed.

I should also mention the mile and a sixteenth Dayton Andrews Dodge Sophomore Turf Stakes for three year old colts. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Thunder Brew, who just held off Gator Tiger for a three quarter length victory. Saint Jude finished another half length back in third, while only a neck in front of Family Foundation. The race was so close that Battle Music, who finished seventh, was only three and three quarter lengths away from the winner! Although I highly doubt that this will affect the outcome of the Triple Crown, you never know where a good horse could come from, so I mention it anyway.

Now we come to the seven furlong Stonehedge Farm South Sophomore Fillies Stakes for three year old fillies. Run at Tampa Bay Downs, the winner was Dash With Ashley, the co-second choice. With a strong bid on the outside, she came from sixth to score a four length victory. Favored Island Time finished second, a head in front of Joanie's Catch. None of the others ever really threatened.

Now I come down to a set of two allowance races, one at Woodbine and one at Keeneland. The first one, at Woodbine, was a five furlong race for three year old colts. The slight favorite was Western Smoke, with Wildcat Frankie the second choice. Wildcat Frankie set the pace for much of the race, and had a length and a half lead as they turned for home, but he was unable to hold off Fastin Bear, who came from last at the after three eighths of a mile to score a three quarter length victory. Wildcat Frankie came home second, with Teton Pass in third. Legal Review finished fourth, and Western Smoke was last of five.

The second allowance race, this one at Keeneland, was a mile and a sixteenth race for three year old colts. A great big field of eleven turned out, with Our Douglas the favorite and Raging Wit the second choice. The race was very unusual, as Raging Wit opened up a twenty length lead after a half mile, which rapidly shrunk to nothing. He ended up seventh. As for Our Douglas, he made a bold move while four wide, but fell a neck short of upset winner Harken Up. Beau Choix, at 10-1, finished third. Worldly, who had been racing in graded stakes races, finished fourth. Becky's Kitten was fifth.

And finally, FINALLY, I come to the last race. That race was the Apple Blossom Handicap. I won't discuss it thoroughly right now, (I intend to write an entire post about it) but for now I will say that the great mare Zenyatta is 16-for-16 and she ran her most impressive race ever today. Wow.

So, that's all I have to say. Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- April 2nd, 2010

Four weeks until the Kentucky Derby. Just twenty eight days. Last week, several pretenders were eliminated. Many more will be thrown out during the next two weeks. Expect another contender or two to emerge as well. It's bound to happen. Many fascinating things happened last week, but before I recap them, I must discuss what's happening this week. What a great week it's going to be.

WOOD MEMORIAL (gr. I) ---- Aqueduct, Race 9, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Dirt)

Of all the Triple Crown prep races this week, this one is probably the most solid. Four major players on the Trail turned out to do battle, along with two longshots who have the potential to hit the board, or maybe even win.

To begin with, there is the number one horse, Most Happy Fella. The son of Ecton Park has been improving ever so slightly in each start, but would need to really step up tomorrow to be in the mix. He has never started in a stakes race, but has raced at Aqueduct five times already. He will likely set the pace tomorrow. He will carry 123 pounds, the same as all of the other entries, and will be ridden by A. Napravnik.

Then there is the number two horse, Awesome Act. The son of Awesome Again was very impressive in the Gotham Stakes, and he is expected to provide most of the competition for Eskendereya. However, it is possible that he could regress off of his last race, which could leave the door open for a longshot to steal his place. We'll see what he can do. He will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.

This brings us to the number three horse Eskendereya. The son of Giant's Causeway is one of the current favorites for the Kentucky Derby and comes off of a tremendous run in the Fountain of Youth Stakes six weeks ago, where he destroyed Jackson Bend by eight and a half lengths. Like Awesome Act, it is possible that he could bounce off of his last race. If so, it's possible for a longshot to steal the race. He is the morning line favorite at odds of 4-5 and will be ridden by John Velazquez.

Then there is the number four horse, Schoolyard Dreams. The son of Stephen Got Even comes into tomorrow's race off of a nose loss to top Triple Crown candidate Odysseus, while finishing a half length in front of Super Saver. With a blazing :46 4/5 workout last Saturday, I think that he is ready to run the race of his life tomorrow. If anyone is going to upset the big two, I think that it will be him. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.

Now we come to the number five horse, Jackson Bend. The son of Hear No Evil was running incredibly well at Calder last year, but has been unable to win in two starts this year, finishing second both times. I think he is ready to run his best race tomorrow, and with Calvin Borel in the saddle, I think that he is capable of upsetting the big two.

Finally, there is the number six horse Canivore. The son of Giant's Causeway comes into the Wood Memorial off of a seven length win in a $27,000 maiden race at Laurel Park. He has been improving in leaps and bounds and might have a shot at hitting the board if something drastic happens. He will be ridden by J. Shepherd.

So, here are my selections for the Wood Memorial. . .

1 Schoolyard Dreams
2 Eskendereya
3 Awesome Act
4 Jackson Bend
5 Canivore
6 Most Happy Fella

I don't know. . . this is a tough race to figure out. Awesome Act, Schoolyard Dreams, Eskendereya, and Jackson Bend are all pretty evenly matched, and if one of them doesn't fire, Carivore and Most Happy Fella are right there, waiting to pick up the pieces. I know that Eskendereya is a very good colt, but I don't think that he is going to duplicate his Fountain of Youth run. I think that Awesome Act is going to regress, but I think that Schoolyard Dreams is going to run his best race to date. I know that Jackson Bend has great talent, and I know that Calvin Borel is going to get a great race out of him, but I just don't think that he is going to get the distance. Canivore and Most Happy Fella are about equal, and both of them have a shot at hitting the board. It's going to be a great race. And it's going to be very influential.

SANTA ANITA DERBY (gr. I) ---- Santa Anita, Race 6, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Synthetic)

Here it is --- the Santa Anita Derby. For many, this is the final chance for fine colts to prove that they are Triple Crown caliber. A tough field of ten has been drawn for this $750,000 prep race. Many of the colts here need to finish first or second to have any shot at making the Kentucky Derby. Those who don't finish in the top two will have to wait until the Preakness or the Belmont. Let's take a look at who's running.

First off, there is the number one horse Posse Power. The son of Posse most recently finished third behind Connemara in the El Camino Real Derby six weeks ago. He would have to really step up to contend here tomorrow, but who knows? He will carry 122 pounds, the same as everybody else, and will be ridden by L. Mawing.

Then there is the number two horse, Thomas Baines. The son of Johannesburg comes into the Santa Anita Derby off of a win in a one mile optional claiming race at this track just over a month ago. Prior to that, he finished sixth in the El Camino Real and third in the California Derby. Like Posse Power, he would need to show a lot of improvement to be in the mix. He will be ridden by J. Rosario.

Now we come to the number three horse, Who's Up. The son of Graeme Hall has not raced since winning the Generous Stakes on turf last November. He is perhaps the mystery colt in the race, for it is hard to say how well he will run.

This brings us to the number four horse Sidney's Candy. The son of Candy Ride has been very impressive so far, easily winning the grade II San Vicente on February 15th and fighting to the wire for victory in the grade II San Felipe Stakes three weeks ago. Both wins were in wire-to-wire fashion, which is going to be tough to do tomorrow. He's going to have to show another gear in the stretch if he wants to hold off Lookin at Lucky. He will be ridden by Joseph Talamo.

Then there is the number five horse, Setsuko. The son of Pleasantly Perfect most recently finished second to fellow Santa Anita Derby runner Alphie's Bet in the March 6th Sham Stakes. He is a very interesting colt, and may have a shot at winning tomorrow. He will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano, and is actually trained by Richard Mandella, who won four Breeders' Cup races at this track in 2003.

Now we come to the number six horse Caracortado. The son of Cat Dreams was undefeated in five starts, which included an easy win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, before finishing third behind Sidney's Candy and Interactif in the San Felipe. However, in that race, he had very little pace to chase, which should not be a problem here tomorrow. He will be ridden by Paul Atkinson, who has ridden him in every one of his races so far.

This brings us to the morning line favorite, the colt everybody is talking about, the colt who is the current Kentucky Derby favorite. Lookin at Lucky. The son of Smart Strike has won six of seven races, his only loss coming by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after a nightmare trip, where he was carried six wide on the first turn and never got anywhere near the rail. He rebounded later that year to score in the CashCall Futurity last December, and then won the Rebel Stakes by a nose last March in his season debut. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Garrett Gomez, he is going to be tough to beat. Should he win, he will become the first two year old champion to win the Santa Anita Derby the following year since Affirmed. It would also provide Garrett Gomez with his third consecutive win in this race. . .

Then there is the number eight horse Cardiff Giant. The son of Yankee Gentleman has already started twelve times, and has been rather consistent this year, hitting the board in two graded stakes races before running fifth behind Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes. He would need to show something extra to hit the board here, but you never know what might happen.

Now we come to the number nine horse Skipshot. The son of Skip Away comes into the Santa Anita Derby off of a nose win in a one mile allowance race at Golden Gate Fields about three weeks ago. His final workout for this race was very good, and he may be overlooked by many. I think that he has a shot at getting a piece of it. He will be ridden by F. Alvarado.

Finally, there is the number ten horse Alphie's Bet. The son of Tribal Rule was very impressive while winning the Sham Stakes four weeks ago, and is one of the main contenders here tomorrow. With Alex Solis in the saddle, I will be watching him very closely.

So here are my selections for Santa Anita Derby. . .

1 Lookin at Lucky
2 Caracortado
3 Alphie's Bet
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Who's Up
6 Setsuko
7 Skipshot
8 Posse Power
9 Cardiff Giant
10 Thomas Baines

It was tough figuring out who would finish fifth through tenth, but I never paused for the top four. I believe that Lookin at Lucky is going to win rather easily tomorrow, with Caracortado redeeming himself with a good run. Alphie's Bet obviously has talent, but breaking from post ten isn't the greatest thing, and I'm just not hooked on him yet. I don't think the Sidney's Candy is going to hold on today, but I do think that Who's Up is overlooked and will run a big one at huge odds. Finally, I may have Setsuko a bit low, but I'm just not convinced that the Sham Stakes was that strong. We'll see what happens. No matter who wins, it's going to be a great race.

ILLINOIS DERBY (gr. II) ---- Hawthorne, Race 7, April 3rd
9 Furlongs (Dirt)

Of all the grand three year old races being run this week, I believe that this one I am most looking forward to. It has drawn a very nice eight horse field, of which every entry has a shot at winning. Not only is the purse a very large $500,000, but the winner will receive $300,000, which is more than enough to make it to the Kentucky Derby. I believe that a major Triple Crown contender is going to come from this race, just like Musket Man last year. Let's take a look at who's running. . .

I'll begin with the number one horse, American Lion. The son of Tiznow showed great potential last year after winning the grade III Hollywood Prevue Stakes at Hollywood Park, but has been rather disappointing this year, finishing third behind Caracortado and Dave in Dixie in the Robert B. Lewis and fourth behind Sidney's Candy, Interactif, and Caracortado in the San Felipe. However, he is bred to be a dirt horse, and is expected to run a better race tomorrow. He will be ridden by David Flores and may have a shot if the pace is slow. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as all of the other entries.

Then there is the number two horse, Stephen's Got Hope. The son of Stephen Got Even finished fifth, beaten fine lengths, in the San Felipe Stakes, but has a shot at turning in a better effort in his first start on dirt. He will be ridden by J. Garcia. I will be watching this one closely.

Now we come to the number three horse, Boulder Creek. Like Stephen's Got Hope, he was very disappointing in his last race, finishing fifth, beaten four and three quarter lengths, in the nine furlong Sham Stakes. However, he does have a chance to improve in his first start on dirt. He will be ridden by C. Emigh.

This brings us to the number four horse, Yawanna Twist. The son of Yonaguska comes into the Illinois Derby off of a runner up performance to top Kentucky Derby contender Awesome Act in the Gotham Stakes four weeks ago. He is the 4-1 morning line third choice, but I think he is one of the top contenders. He will be ridden by Edgar Prado, who rode Barbaro to victory in the 2006 Kentucky Derby.

But we mustn’t forget Turf Melody. The son of Maria’s Mon will be making his tenth start. Hawthorne will be the tenth race track at which he has raced. Ridden tomorrow by Jeremy Rose, he comes into the Illinois Derby off of a fourth place finish to Awesome Act in the Gotham. His morning line odds are 6-1, but I think that he is one of the major contenders.

This brings us to the number six horse, Dave in Dixie. The son of Dixie Union finished second to Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes before ending up sixth, beaten by nearly six lengths, in the San Felipe. However, that poor showing can be explained by the lack of pace in that race, which I thoroughly discussed in one of my other posts. I'm willing to give him a shot at redeeming himself tomorrow. He will be ridden by J. Valdivia, Jr.

Now we come to the number seven horse, the morning line favorite. He is Backtalk, who I believe is the most successful son of Smarty Jones to date. With $170,000 in graded earnings, all of it coming from his fine summer 2009 form, he is probably going to make the Kentucky Derby no matter what he does today. But a good effort tomorrow could make him one of the favorites. In 2009, he won the Bashford Manor Stakes and the Sanford Stakes before running fourth in the Champagne and eighth in the Breeders' Futurity. Given some time off, he rebounded with a fine win in the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes on February 26th despite some traffic issues. His final workout for the Illinois Derby was six furlongs in 1:09 3/5, which has raised some concern to how well he will run tomorrow, but I think that he is ready to go. He will be ridden by M. Mena.

Finally, we come to the number eight horse Game Ball. The son of Sky Mesa is two-for-two in 2010, his most recent win coming in an optional claiming race on March 5th down in Florida. He is probably out classed here, but he may be able to throw in a good run. He will be ridden by W. Martinez.

So here are my selections. . .

1 Backtalk
2 American Lion
3 Yawanna Twist
4 Dave in Dixie
5 Turf Melody
6 Stephen's Got Hope
7 Game Ball
8 Boulder Creek

It was a tough race to figure out, but I believe that Backtalk can win despite the fast workout. American Lion has obvious talent, but has run into some trouble in his last two starts. I think he will improve on dirt and the pace should be slow enough for him to hang on to second. I have liked Yawanna Twist since the Gotham, but I'm not sure if he is ready for this race. He needs to finish second to have any shot at making the Kentucky Derby, so we'll see what happens. As for Dave in Dixie, I have always liked this colt, but I don't think that he is going to get there tomorrow. To make the Kentucky Derby, he would have to win, so a lot hangs on the wire at Hawthorne. As for Turf Melody, he is obviously a very tough colt, and he is one of my personal favorites here, but I just can't see him winning against this field. As for the other three, they all have a shot at hitting the board, but I can't really see any of them winning. But perhaps Stephen's Got Hope could surprise everyone. We'll see.

Those are my final thoughts on the big three.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

As usual, there are other great races this Saturday that I should mention, and this lot deserves a lot of attention for it is a very good set of "undercard" races.

To begin with, there is the seven furlong grade III Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct for three year olds. The big name is Eightfiveinafifty, who has not raced since blowing the turn in the Whirlaway Stakes early last February. He has been training very well since the incident, and is back to a one turn race, trying to prove once again that he is a top class colt who deserves attention. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. His main competition may come from El Rocco, who will carry co-top weight of 120 pounds and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. Personally, I like the name Noah's Dream, and believe that Casaneda will be in the mix. It should be a good race. Perhaps the world record is in danger. . . (ha ha)

Next up is the grade I Ashland Stakes at Keeneland for three year old fillies. The race has drawn the Eclipse Champion for two year old filly She Be Wild, as well as the very tough Negligee, who beat She Be Wild in the Darley Alcibiades Stakes.

Of course, She Be Wild should be able to present herself well, but she comes into the Ashland off of a very poor effort in the Forward Gal Stakes last January, finishing fifth, ten lengths behind runaway winner Bickersons. That was her first start on dirt, but she returns to synthetics tomorrow.

As for Negligee, I believe that she will do a lot more than run well. I believe she is ready to run a tremendous race and probably beat She Be Wild. Other contenders are Protesting Beautician, Evening Jewel, and Upperline. It's going to be a great race, but I do think that Negligee is going to be the winner, with Evening Jewel running a fine race as well. Apple Charlotte could also be in the mix.

Finally, it's worth mentioning that the seven furlong grade I Carter Handicap is to be run right after the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. The race is for three year olds and up, but of course, it drew no three year olds. I'm mentioning it because last year's Illinois Derby winner Musket Man is back for another shot at winning a grade I. His main competition is expected to be Munnings, who is actually the morning line favorite at 4-5. Both colts battled with Rachel Alexandra at one point in their lifetime, with Musket Man finishing third to her in the Preakness and Munnings finishing third behind the Horse of the Year in the Haskell Invitational. It should be a great race.

With all that said, I shall now recap what happened last week, beginning with the Louisiana Derby.

RACE RECAPS

The Lousiana Derby did not go as I thought it would. I have been a Ron the Greek fan since he won the Lecomte, and I thought that today would be his day. It wasn't, as he finished sixth behind Mission Impazible, who scored a three quarter length win over a very stubborn A Little Warm. Drosselmeyer ended up third, with Risen Start winner Discreetly Mine in fourth.

So here are the results. . .

1 Mission Impazible
2 A Little Warm
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Discreetly Mine
5 Stay Put
6 Ron the Greek
7 The Program
8 Mister Marti Gras
9 Fly Down
10 Wow Wow Wow
11 Hotep
12 Island Soul
13 Backtrack

. . . versus my selections.

1 Ron the Greek
2 Discreetly Mine
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Fly Down
5 Stay Put
6 The Program
7 A Little Warm
8 Backtrack
9 Mission Impazible
10 Mister Marti Gras
11 Wow Wow Wow
12 Island Soul
13 Hotep

Now, it was a very close race, with only about twelve lengths separating the twelve finishers. (Backtrack was eased.) From first to ninth was only 6 3/4 lengths, and the top four finishers were only one and a quarter lengths apart. That said, I was completely wrong about Mission Impazible, who made Dublin, Conveyance, and Cardiff Giant look that much better, as those three beat him soundly in the Southwest Stakes last February. I was right about Discreetly Mine not getting the distance, and that Drosselmeyer would finish third, but Ron the Greek just didn't put in his final rally. However, he was beaten by only three and a half lengths, and I would still like him in the Kentucky Derby if he had the earnings to go there, which he doesn't. But perhaps he is still a Belmont Stakes horse.

As for other race results, Dean's Kitten won the Lane's End Stakes, stamping his ticket to the Kentucky Derby as he destroyed Northern Giant and Connemara fairly easily. Double's Partner, who has beaten Lentenor in a nine furlong turf allowance race, finished eighth. I don't think that Dean's Kitten is Triple Crown caliber, but it's hard to say for sure.

Then there was the rich Sunland Derby in New Mexico. Conveyance was the heavy favorite, and rightfully so, but he ended up finishing second, three lengths behind the 12-1 upset winner Endorsement. The latter finished the nine furlongs in 1:48 2/5, which was only a fifth of a second off of the forty-nine year old track record. Tempted to Tapit was another three lengths back in third. So Endorsement moves on to everyone's list of top Kentucky Derby contenders, while Conveyance drops a few notches.

But that's not all. In the Fantasy Stakes, which happened only a few hours ago, Blind Luck proved that she may be even better on dirt, winning rather easily by three lengths in the four horse field. Just remember that Rachel Alexandra and Eight Belles won the Fantasy Stakes on their way to stardom.

Then there were a bunch of little races all over the country. The seven and a half furlong on the turf Grindstone Stakes was snatched up by Working for Hops, the one mile and a sixteenth Rushaway Stakes was claimed by Exhi in nearly wire-to-wire fashion, the six furlong Hansel Stakes was won easily by Cool Bullet, who defeated a solid field which included Strapping Groom, Kera's Kitten, and Lucky Chuck. The final time was 1:08 4/5, which was quite good.

Out at Hawthorne, Windy City Cat proved best in a six furlong allowance race, winning by two lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. The final time of 1:11 2/5 was very slow, more than four seconds off of the track record, but you never know where the stakes winners might come from.

Then there was the mile and a sixteenth Transylvania Stakes on the turf at Keeneland. Sent off as the favorite, undefeated Nordic Truce got up for a neck win, with morning line favorite Macias finishing up next to last.

For the fillies, there was the one mile and a sixteenth Fair Grounds Oaks, which was won by Quiet Temper, who just got up to claim a half length victory from Champagne d'Oro, who led for much of the race. It was a dead heat for third between Sheer Beauty and Seeking the Title, and Jody Slew finished eighth. The latter's poor performance can be excused, as she was forced to miss training after getting cast in her stall.

Then there was the one mile Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. The winner was Orchestrator, who battled gamely with Age of Humor down the stretch to secure a neck win. Favored Helen Belen finished sixth, while second choice Cascading ended up last.

Out at Santa Anita, there was the six and a half furlong Santa Paula Stakes. The favorite was Sister Dawn, but I believe that La Nez could beat her. La Nez did beat her by a neck, but both were soundly defeating by runaway winner Tanda, the longshot in the five horse field at 6-1.

And last but not least, there was a maiden special weight race for TWO YEAR OLDS at Keeneland! I have been anticipating such a thing for over a month now, and I ended up picking the winner. I believed that Wetzel was going to win, and he did, securing an hard fought nose victory. The heavy favorite, Sweet William, ended up fourth after challenging for the lead.

So, it's going to be a great day of racing tomorrow. Enjoy!

-Keelerman

THE TWENTY, as of April 2nd, 2010

1. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
His final prep is going to come in the Santa Anita Derby. I would like to see him really fight for the win, to get him fit and ready for the Triple Crown. If he wins it, he will become the first two year old champion to win the race since. . . Affirmed.
2. ODYSSEUS Malibu Moon - Persimmon Hill, by Conquistador Cielo Thomas Albertrani
His final prep will come in the Blue Grass Stakes. I'm not sure if he can win it, but I do believe that it will get him ready. I think he is going to keep improving.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I can't wait to see this colt in the Arkansas Derby. First, second, or third, I think he is Kentucky Derby caliber and is going to run the race of his life May 1st.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
He doesn't need to win the Wood Memorial, and can even regress a little off of the Fountain of Youth, but I need to see him run a good race again before I move him up any higher. I want proof that he can turn in those efforts with consistency.
5. CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
He did lose his last start, but let's get serious. He's five for six, and obviously has talent. I think that he and Lookin at Lucky are going to run 1-2, but I'm not sure who will come home on top. Graded earnings are a bit of a concern, but even a third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby should do the job.
6. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
Ran a great race in the Fantasy Stakes, overcoming a pretty slow pace and a lot of ground to grab a three length win. Just remember that Rachel Alexandra won this race last year, and Eight Belles the year before. . .
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
It's hard to say if the Euro-bounce will affect him in the Wood Memorial, but I think that he is legitimate. Graded earnings aren't a concern, and as long as he finishes in the top three tomorrow, I'll be satisfied.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
He won't be getting any more preps before the Kentucky Derby, so I'm left wondering if he is Triple Crown caliber or not. It's possible that he is a bit below top three year old form, but he was very impressive in the Florida Derby.
9. ENDORSEMENT Distorted Humor - Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy Shannon Ritter
He came within one fifth of a second of breaking the Sunland Park track record as he mowed down Conveyance to win by three lengths. When Rule faltered, Endorsement stepped up. I think that he's better than most people think.
10. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
I'm not sure how far he wants to go, but he'll give us an idea in the Arkansas Derby. With Dublin, and possibly Uh Oh Bango and Super Saver running against him, it's going to be a great race. And it will tell us everything.
11. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
Looked good winning the Louisiana Derby, but I don't think that he is quite as good as the above ten. Still, it was a breakthrough performance, and he could be in the mix this May.
12. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He failed his first test in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I'm sure he will get one more shot. I'm hoping that he will run in the Arkansas Derby. In that case, we would really get a feel for how good he truly is.
13. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
This colt is going to present his case in the Blue Grass Stakes, but I just don't think that he is Triple Crown caliber. He would need to win very easily next week to be one of the main contenders at Churchill.
14. BACKTALK Smarty Jones - Apasionata Sonata, by Affirmed Thomas M. Amoss
I'm concerned that his 1:09 3/5 workout the other day might have been a bit fast, but perhaps he can overcome it. If he is truly great, he will. In 1955, the great Nashua was set to run in the Arlington Classic. Five days before the race, he worked five furlongs in :56 3/5, which was faster than the world record at that time. He won the Classic by a half of a length.
15. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS Stephen Got Even - Hear This, by Prospector's Music Derek Ryan
His last workout was brilliant, but let's wait and see how he does in the Wood Memorial. Obviously, his workout might have been a little fast, but everything I said about Backtalk applies here too. If anyone is going to beat Eskendereya, I think it will be this colt.
16. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
Nobody pressed him in the San Felipe, but he was still losing ground at the finish. It's going to be a lot tougher to wire the Santa Anita Derby, but if he can do it, he is a major, major contender.
17. PLEASANT PRINCE Indy King - Archduchess, by Pleasant Prince Wesley Ward
This colt is possibly under the radar a bit. Finishing a nose behind Ice Box in the Florida Derby is nothing to sneeze at. I have the feeling that this colt may be the better of the two.
18. MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
This is one colt who I believe is ready to run the race of his life when given a chance to run on dirt. He raced in the shadow of Lookin at Lucky last year, and perhaps this year is when he will truly show his ability.
19. ALPHIE'S BET Tribal Rule - Miss Alphie, by Candi's Gold Alexis Barba
He get's his chance to prove himself against the Kentucky Derby favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. I'm not hooked on this colt yet, but I may be after tomorrow.
20. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
He has one final shot at proving himself to be a Triple Crown contender. I don't think that he has the stamina to go a mile and a quarter, or even a mile and three sixteenths, but if he was to win the Illinois Derby by daylight tomorrow I'll have to move him back into the top twelve.

WATCH VERY CLOSELY

CARDIFF GIANT Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
CARNIVORE One to watch in the Wood Memorial.
CODOY Heading to the Blue Grass.
CONNEMARA Disappointing in the Lane's End.
CONVEYANCE Disappointing in the Sunland Derby.
COOL BULLET Very impressive in the Hansel Stakes last week.
DAVE IN DIXIE Gets his chance in the Illinois Derby.
DEAN'S KITTEN Impressive in the Lane's End.
D’FUNNYBONE May lack the stamina.
DISCREETLY MINE Not crying for distance.
DISTORTED DAVE Might have a shot if he wins the Lexington.
DROSSELMEYER He's short on graded earnings. May run in the Lexington.
EIGHTYFIVEANDAFIFTY He's entered to run in the Bay Shore Stakes, might be a Preakness contender.
GAME BALL Longshot in the Illinois Derby, but might be in the mix.
HOMEBOYKRIS I don't think he has the stamina.
JACKSON BEND With Calvin Borel riding him in the Wood Memorial, he is one to watch.
MENDIP Third in the UAE Derby, he probably won't come here.
MOST HAPPY FELLA Gets his chance in the Wood Memorial.
NORDIC TRUCE Three-for-three after Transylvania win.
NORTHERN GIANT Second in the Lane's End, graded earnings are a concern.
POSSE POWER Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
PULSION Plans to run back in the Arkansas Derby. We'll see.
RON THE GREEK Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby, graded earnings are a concern.
RULE I don't think that he can get the distance.
SETSUKO Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
SKIPSHOT Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
STAY PUT Graded earnings are a concern.
THOMAS BAINES Gets his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
TIZ THE ONE Perhaps the Arkansas Derby?
WHO'S UP Get's his chance in the Santa Anita Derby.
WILLIAM'S KITTEN Is he off the Triple Crown Trail?
YAWANNA TWIST Just got nominated to the TC, gets his shot in the Illinois Derby.

KEEP AN EYE ON

A LITTLE WARM Ran a tremondous race in the Lousiana Derby, but he just couldn't hold off the winner.
BULLS AND BEARS Perhaps the Preakness or Belmont.
BIM BAM Wouldn't be surprised to see him in the Blue Grass.
COLIZEO I don't think he has the ability.
CONCORD POINT Where will he start next?
DIXIE COMMANDER Out of opportunities.
EXHI Interesting win in the Rushaway, probably doesn't have the ability.
FIRST DUDE Ran fifth in the Florida Derby.
FLY DOWN Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
GAME ON DUDE Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
LAUS DEO Where is he?
MAXIMUS RULER I don't think that he can get the distance.
NEXTDOORNEIGHBOR I don't think that he can get the distance.
OUTLAW MAN Disappointing in the Lane's End.
PADDY O'PRADO Possible for the Blue Grass.
PEPPI KNOWS He has just about run out of opportunities.
RADIOHEAD Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
SASSY IMAGE I expect that she'll rebound in her next start.
SOARING EMPIRE Disappointing in the Florida Derby.
TEMPTED TO TAPIT Ran third in the Sunland Derby, I don't think that he is quite ready.
THE PROGRAM Disappointing in the Louisiana Derby, but ran a sneaky good race.
TIZ CHROME Where will he run next?
WORKING FOR HOPS Nice win in the Grindstone.

-Keelerman