Keelerman's Triple Crown Countdown

Saturday, May 08, 2010

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- MAY 7th, 2010

Well, the Kentucky Derby is over and soon the Preakness will be too. A lot happened last week, and a lot will happen next week. But before we can get into next week, we have another Saturday to get through, a Saturday headlined by the Lone Star Derby and the Dwyer Stakes. I don't have a lot of time left, but let's take a quick look at what's happening around the country, beginning with the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park.

DWYER STAKES (gr. II) ---- Belmont Park, Race 9, May 8th
9 Furlongs (Dirt)

The nine furlong Dwyer Stakes, which is replacing the canceled Peter Pan Stakes, is Belmont Park's local prep for the Belmont Stakes. The race drew a field of seven, headlined by classy stakes runner Drosselmeyer and the extremely solid Turf Melody.

We'll begin with the number one horse, Carnivore. The son of Giant's Causeway comes off of a second place finish in an allowance race nine days ago to Nacho Friend, beaten two and three quarter lengths. Prior to that, he had run fifth behind Eskendereya in the Wood Memorial and competed in three maiden races, hitting the board in every one. He does have a bit of speed, and could threaten for the win here. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.

Then there is the number two horse, Drosselmeyer. The son of Distorted Humor won an allowance race back in January before running fourth in the Risen Star and third, beaten a length, in the Louisiana Derby. He will be the heavy favorite tomorrow and should run a winning race. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and will carry 116 pounds.

This brings us to the number three horse, Turf Melody. The veteran campaigner will be making his tenth start at his tenth different racetrack. He is actually the only stakes winner in the field, winning the Springboard Mile Stakes last year. His connections actually considered running him in the Preakness Stakes next week, but they decided that this would be the easier spot and should he run well here, they could run him in the Belmont Stakes four weeks from now. Tomorrow, he will carry top weight of 121 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh.

Then there is the number four horse, Soaring Empire. The son of Empire Maker has hit the board in three of his four starts, his only poor showing coming in the Florida Derby back in March when he ran eighth, beaten fourteen lengths. In that race, he didn't get a very good trip, and looks ready to rebound here. He will be carrying 116 pounds and will be ridden by Eddie Castro.

But don't forget the number five horse, Remand! The son of Successful Appeal has made three starts so far, winning his maiden race, finishing off the board in an allowance race, and running third behind Eightfiveinafifty and Hurricane Ike in the Bay Shore Stakes last month. The 3-1 second choice, he can more than hold his own against this group. He will be carrying 116 pounds and will be ridden by John Velazquez.

This brings us to the number six horse, Codoy. The son of Bernstein has only won one race from eight starts, but has finished second four times, third once, and finished first in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes before being disqualified and placed second. However, his best race was probably his fifth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, beaten seven and three quarter lengths by upset winner Stately Victor. And he was only beaten about three and a half lengths for second, and only two and a half for third. Not too bad. Although he is the 15-1 morning line longshot, I would not be surprised if he pulled the upset. It's worth noting that this will be his first start on dirt and perhaps he just hates synthetic and turf! Tomorrow, he will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by C. Velasquez.

Finally, we come to the number seven horse, Fly Down. The son of Mineshaft has only made four starts, winning twice and finishing third once. He comes into the Dwyer off of a troubled ninth place finish behind Mission Impazible, beaten six and three quarter lengths, in the Louisiana Derby last March. He has been training very nicely, breezing a half mile in :47 3/5 at Churchill Downs a few days ago and looks ready to roll. He is 7-2 on the morning line, will carry 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano.

So who do I like? Here are my picks. . .

1 Drosselmeyer
2 Fly Down
3 Turf Melody
4 Soaring Empire
5 Remand
6 Carnivore
7 Codoy

It was a tough decision, but I'm going to go with Drosselmeyer. I think that he would have won the Louisiana Derby if he had gotten a slightly better trip, and he looks like the best horse here. Fly Down should also run a good race off of his Louisiana Derby disaster, and Turf Melody always runs well. Soaring Empire is capable of running a winning race, but I don't think that he is ready for a top performance. I'm going to take a stand against Remand and hope that he doesn't run like he did in the Bay Shore Stakes. Carnivore might run well, but I don't think so. And finally, Codoy is capable of running a winning race, but he has never started on dirt before and I don't think that he is going to fire.

Now I shall move on and discuss the. . .

LONE STAR DERBY (gr. III) ---- Lone Star Park, Race 9, May 8th
8.5 Furlongs (Dirt)

The mile and a sixteenth Lone Star Derby, which has always drawn very classy runners and turned out some very solid horses, came up a bit light this year. Six horses have been entered, and I'm afraid that none of them are stakes winners. To be honest, only three of them have competed in stakes. And only one has finished in the top three in a stakes.

But hey, it's not a terrible race and it actually drew a very fascinating field. Who knows? Maybe a super horse will emerge from this race. . .

Anyway, let's take a look at the entries, beginning with the number one horse Wando Redd.

Wando Redd, a son of Wando, is the only horse in the race to have placed in a stakes race, running second in the John Franks Memorial Sales Stakes at Evangeline Downs last August. He has only started once since then, breaking his maiden impressively Evangeline on April 7th. He is 12-1 on the morning line, which may be a bit high, and he will be ridden by C. Landeros. He will carry 122 pounds, the same as every other entry.

Then there is Gilded Woodman. The son of Gilded Crusader has only made one start, running eleventh, beaten nineteen and a quarter lengths, in a Maiden Special Weight race on the turf at Lone Star Park. I can't imagine why he is entered here, but that's what worries me. I almost think he might be sitting on a big race. But then, he ran eleventh only eight days ago, so who knows. He is 50-1 on the morning line and will be ridden by J Guzman.

This brings us to Thatlleaveamark. The son of Marked Tree has started ten times, winning twice. Fortunately, those two wins were in his last two races, and he might be ready to run a big one. At the very least he could hit the board. He is 30-1 and will be ridden by M. Escobar. This will be his first stakes race, his best race so far coming in a claiming race which he won two weeks ago.

Then there is the four horse, the 9-5 shot Game On Dude. Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Awesome Again will try to give Baffert his fourth win in this race. Bob Baffert won the Lone Star Derby last year and has had considerable success in Texas. Game On Dude comes into the race off of a fifth place finish, beaten nineteen and a half lengths, in the Derby Trial Stakes two weeks ago. Prior to that, he had run seventh, beaten ten and three quarter lengths in the Florida Derby and had broken his maiden by three back in February. To be ridden by Martin Garcia, he can win this race with ease, just as he could run last. Who knows what he might do?

This brings us to the 8-5 favorite Henshin Hero. The son of Dance Master has started five times, winning three and running second once. His only off the board finish came in an allowance optional claiming race where he unseated his rider and did not finish the race. If you toss out that race, he is undefeated on dirt, as his only other loss came on the turf at Keeneland where he ran second in an allowance race to Flamin' Hot, a very consistent, classy allowance horse. I believe that Henshin Hero is ready to run an excellent race and can win easily. He will be ridden by B.J. Walker Jr.

Finally, we come to the number six horse Crider. 2-1 on the morning line, the son of Closing Argument has been racing very well in allowance and stakes company, finishing fourth to Dryfly in the Smarty Jones Stakes and fifth, beaten only five and a half lengths, in the Southwest Stakes behind Conveyance, Dublin, Cardiff Giant, and Mission Impazible. And when Cardiff Giant was disqualified, he was placed fourth. He comes into tomorrow's race off of a second to A Student in an allowance optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park after leading in the stretch. He has been training nicely and is capable of pulling off the upset. He will be ridden by A. Gryder.

It's was tough to decide, but here are my picks. . .

1 Crider
2 Henshin Hero
3 Game On Dude
4 Wando Redd
5 Thatlleaveamark
6 Gilded Woodman

I could have gone a lot of different ways here. I had originally thought about putting Henshin Hero on top, but decided to leave him off and hope that he and Wando Redd dual themselves into submission. Game On Dude is capable of running a great race, but I just don't think he is going to fire his best shot. So that's why I'm going with Crider. He has been proven on a less than perfect track and comes from off the pace, which could be very good here. Thatlleaveamark has an excellent chance at rallying for a piece of it, but I just don't think so. Gilded Woodman looks outclassed here, but I wouldn't be surprised if he hit the board or even won.

My last thought is this: I might end up changing my mind on the order of finish in the Lone Star Derby depending on how the weather looks. If I do decide to change my picks, I will put up a short post with my new order of finish. Just thought I'd mention it.

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

Yes, as usual, there is a pretty decent set of other races to watch, even though they probably won't affect the Preakness or the Belmont Stakes.

To begin, there is the Texas Stallion Stakes for three year old colts and geldings at Lone Star Park. On the undercard of the Lone Star Derby, the morning line favorite at 4-5 is Coyote Legend, and there is no way I'm going to pick against him. He has already beaten older males and won two stakes races at west and should be able to run very well tomorrow. Big Texas Daddy might give him a run for his money, but I don't think so.

Then there is the Texas Stallion Stakes for three year old fillies at Lone Star Park. The morning line favorite is Tin Top Cat, but Camille's Appeal and She's a Bond Girl are expected to make her earn it. I don't have a really good opinion on this race, but Tin Top Cat and Camille's Appeal look good.

Another good race is the seven furlong grade III Railbird Stakes out at Hollywood Park. The race has drawn a field of ten, and I must say that Tanda, All Due Respect, and Switch all look good and will probably fill out the trifecta. Tanda is probably the best filly in the race, but you can't ignore the rest of the field. It should be a great race.

Finally, there is a mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Churchill Downs on the ninth for three year olds. The morning line favorite is Prince Will I Am, and I can see him winning with ease, but he will likely receive stiff challenges from Colizeo and Berberis. But with Calvin Borel in the saddle, Prince Will I Am should get a very good trip.

And that is all. It's going to be a very enjoyable day of races, and within a few days we will have the Preakness Stakes and undercard to discuss. It's going to be great fun.

Enjoy the races! Go Super Saver!

-Keelerman

THE KENTUCKY DERBY WEEKEND RECAP

The 136th running of the Kentucky Derby is history. For the 136th time, there was only one winner. And to be honest, I could not be happier with the way things turned out.

Yes, my pick was Dublin. And yes, he didn't win. But I realized after the fact that it really doesn't matter.

The 136th winner of the Kentucky Derby is Super Saver. Jockey Calvin Borel rode his third Derby winner in four years. And at long last, trainer Todd Pletcher, who was 0-for-24 going into the 2010 edition, got his Derby win.

Could it have turned out any better? I don't think so.

Let's take a look at what happened, beginning with the post parade and loading into the starting gate.

THE KENTUCKY DERBY RECAP

POST PARADE & STARTING GATE

Not much happened here. All of the horses were fairly calm, some a little more excited than others, but not too much. Only a couple of things struck me as potential bad signs, the fact that Dublin appeared to be soaked in sweat as he went into the gate and the fact that Sidney's Candy didn't really want to go in at all. Right then and there I suspected that neither of them would win. I still had faith in Dublin, but not quite as much.

Other than that, the whole pre-race activity was fairly uneventful.

THE RACE

As it turns out, I was quite pleased with how the race was run. NBC did a very good broadcast, and I was able to follow my picks for the entire race.
Now let me run you through what happened. . .

As soon as the gates opened, Conveyance rushed out to take the early lead. Sidney's Candy, despite having to start from gate twenty, managed to get over to the outside of Conveyance to challenge for the lead while not very wide at all. Line of David, who did not care for the sloppy, sealed track at all, was also right near the lead after a quarter of a mile.

But it was the favorite, Lookin at Lucky, who has the bad start. He actually broke from the gate quite well, and nearly got a perfect position. But unfortunately, Noble's Promise bumped him a bit, causing him to drop back, and then Paddy O'Prado bumped Stately Victor, who in turn bumped Lookin at Lucky and caused the two year old champion to drop back to as many as twenty-two lengths off the pace. From that point on, the race was over for him.

So after a quarter of a mile, the race was being run how everybody thought it would be. The three leaders were Conveyance, Sidney's Candy, and Line of David. Discreetly Mine and Mission Impazible were following them closely. And Super Saver? The colt who couldn't rate was back in sixth, five and a half lengths off the lead. He was followed by American Lion and Noble's Promise, who were only heads apart. Jackson Bend was back in ninth, with the filly Devil May Care racing tenth. Homboykris was eleventh, followed by Backtalk, Paddy O'Prado, Dublin, Dean's Kitten, Awesome Act, Stately Victor, Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, and Make Music for Me.

Amazingly, Dublin, who broke from gate seventeen, didn't have to go very wide. Although he steadied in the early going, he did manage to get to the rail at one point in the race. Paddy O'Prado, whom I had expected to sit on or near the lead, was farther back than I expected.

After a half mile, things weren't much different. Super Saver had dropped back to eight lengths off the lead, while Conveyance led the field through a blazing :46 flat half mile. It was a length and a half back to Sidney's Candy, who was a good four lengths clear of Line of David and Noble's Promise. Dublin was about seventeen lengths off the lead, while Lookin at Lucky was still way back, with only Ice Box and Make Music for Me behind him.

With a half mile to go, things really began to happen. Line of David gave way, and Conveyance was beginning to show signs of stopping. Sidney's Candy was still in contention, but Noble's Promise was the biggest threat. In the meantime, Super Saver and Calvin Borel were making a run along the rail. Dublin was also on the move, now only thirteen lengths off the lead. Lookin at Lucky, Ice Box, and Make Music for Me still trailed.

Then Noble's Promise made his bid. With amazing acceleration, he pounced on Conveyance and Sidney’s Candy, and had a length and a half lead as they turned into the stretch. Dublin had put in an incredible mid-race rally to come within three lengths of the lead, and the filly Devil May Care came to within a length and a half of lead. Paddy O'Prado was moving strongly, but Ice Box had run into traffic. It was anybody's race!

And then Calvin Borel and Super Saver made their move.

Coming off the rail only briefly to pass the tiring Conveyance, he burst away from the field to claim a two length lead at the eighth pole. Dublin, obviously tired from his big move, began to tire, while Devil May Care was rapidly giving way. Lookin at Lucky was putting in a run between horses, but Paddy O'Prado was beginning to tire. Ice Box, still eleventh and eight lengths off the lead at the eighth pole, finally found racing room and came on with a very strong late rush. Make Music for Me, the second longest shot in the field at 30-1, was also coming home strongly.
But in the end, nobody could catch Super Saver. The WinStar farm homebred, under urging from Calvin Borel, had snuck away from everyone and was two and a half lengths clear under the wire. Ice Box just got up to nail Paddy O'Prado for second, while Make Music for Me rallied for fourth. Noble's Promise finished fifth, a length in front of Lookin at Lucky. Dublin was back in seventh, with Stately Victor eighth. Mission Impazible was ninth and Devil May Care finished tenth.

So how did I do? Let's compare the results to my picks.

RESULTS

1 Super Saver
2 Ice Box
3 Paddy O'Prado
4 Make Music for Me
5 Noble's Promise
6 Lookin at Lucky
7 Dublin
8 Stately Victor
9 Mission Impazible
10 Devil May Care
11 American Lion
12 Jackson Bend
13 Discreetly Mine
14 Dean's Kitten
15 Conveyance
16 Homeboykris
17 Sidney's Candy
18 Line of David
19 Awesome Act
20 Backtalk

. . . versus my many different kinds of picks.

OFFICIAL PICKS

1 Dublin
2 Super Saver
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Conveyance
5 Mission Impazible
6 American Lion
7 Sidney's Candy
8 Ice Box
9 Awesome Act
10 Stately Victor
11 Jackson Bend
12 Homeboykris
13 Devil May Care
14 Make Music for Me
15 Backtalk
16 Paddy O'Prado
17 Noble's Promise
18 Line of David
19 Dean's Kitten
20 Discreetly Mine

GUT FEELING PICKS

1 Dublin
2 Super Saver
3 Mission Impazible
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 American Lion
6 Conveyance
7 Ice Box
8 Jackson Bend
9 Homeboykris
10 Make Music for Me
11 Dean's Kitten
12 Devil May Care
13 Awesome Act
14 Sidney's Candy
15 Backtalk
16 Paddy O'Prado
17 Stately Victor
18 Noble's Promise
19 Line of David
20 Discreetly Mine

RANDOM PICKS

1 Line of David
2 American Lion
3 Stately Victor
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Paddy O'Prado
6 Mission Impazible
7 Dublin
8 Homeboykris
9 Devil May Care
10 Backtalk
11 Noble's Promise
12 Ice Box
13 Super Saver
14 Discreetly Mine
15 Dean's Kitten
16 Jackson Bend
17 Awesome Act
18 Make Music for Me
19 Conveyance
20 Lookin at Lucky

HIGHEST BEYER SPEED FIGURE IN LAST RACE PICKS

1 Devil May Care (DH with Sidney's Candy)
2 Sidney's Candy (DH)
3 Ice Box
4 Super Saver (DH with Line of David and American Lion)
5 Line of David (DH)
6 American Lion (DH)
7 Dublin
8 Conveyance
9 Stately Victor (DH with Mission Impazoble)
10 Mission Impazible (DH)
11 Dean's Kitten (DH with Jackson Bend and Awesome Act)
12 Jackson Bend (DH)
13 Awesome Act (DH)
14 Discreetly Mine
15 Noble's Promise
16 Lookin at Lucky
17 Homeboykris
18 Paddy O'Prado
19 Make Music for Me
20 Backtalk

AVERAGE BEYER SPEED FIGURE PICKS

1 Conveyance
2 Awesome Act
3 Sidney's Candy
4 Super Saver
5 American Lion
6 Lookin at Lucky
7 Noble's Promise
8 Discreetly Mine
9 Homboykris
10 Jackson Bend
11 Mission Impazible
12 Dublin
13 Backtalk
14 Devil May Care
15 Line of David
16 Make Music for Me
17 Stately Victor
18 Paddy O'Prado
19 Dean's Kitten
20 Ice Box

Now, some of you will notice that my "Official Picks" listed above don't exactly match the ones I posted on the day of the Derby. Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver traded places. The ones I posted today are correct. Last week, I had picked Lookin at Lucky to finish second, just in front of Super Saver, but changed my mind around noon and forgot to go back and change it.

So anyway, let's take a look at how all my different kinds of picks did. . .

On my "Official Picks" list, the only horse I had pegged exactly was Line of David. I was very close on Jackson Bend, and nearly had Super Saver on top, but just didn't get it quite right. Still, I didn't do terribly bad.

On the "Gut Feelings" list, I didn't get any horse pegged correctly, but my list did look more like the actually order of finish. My gut feeling was that Sidney's Candy was going to tire, and he did. I also felt certain that Make Music for Me was not going to finish last, and that Awesome Act was not going to threaten. All of those assumptions were correct.

Of course, I was dead wrong about Conveyance. I actually didn't think that his Sunland Derby was that bad, and that he could hang on to the lead and surprise a lot of people at large odds. He didn't. He faded to finish fifteenth.

As for my mystery horse, Homeboykris, he didn't run quite as well as I hoped he would, but I'm satisfied. Hey, the horse that everybody thought would finish last ended up finishing in front of the winners of the Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, and Gotham Stakes.

However, this isn't really fair to the Gotham winner Awesome Act. He came out of the Kentucky Derby lame, although I have not heard the reason why. He should be able to return to training. Perhaps he will come back and win the Travers.
Getting back to my many different lists, I will now discuss how the "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks did. In that list, the horse with the highest Beyer speed figure in his or her last race would finish first, while the horse with the lowest Beyer figure would run last.

It actually didn't do all that badly. Although Devil May Care and Sidney's Candy did not finish in a dead heat for the win, it did have Dublin, Jackson Bend, and Backtalk in the right spots, and it was very close on Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, Discreetly Mine, and Ice Box. It had Super Saver to run fourth.
Then there was the "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks, where I averaged out every horse's speed figures and assumed that the horse with the highest average would finish first, while the lowest average would finish last. It worked terribly. The only horse it picked correctly was Lookin at Lucky, to run sixth, and it was way off on everybody else. It had Ice Box to run last, Paddy O'Prado to run eighteenth, Make Music for Me to run sixteenth, and Conveyance to win.

And last but not least, there was my "Random Picks" list, where I randomly selected names from a hat to complete the order of finish. It didn't do very well at all. It picked Dublin to finish seventh all right, but it also had Super Saver to run thirteenth, Ice Box to run twelfth, Lookin at Lucky to finish last, and Line of David to win.

So now that I have thoroughly discussed how I did with my picks, let's concentrate on talking about the winner.

SUPER SAVER AND HIS CONNECTIONS

How can anybody not be satisfied with these results? It's hard to ignore the fact that Todd Pletcher finally got his Derby win.

As I was watching to race, I had one eye on Dublin and one on Super Saver. As the break, I was looking intently at Dublin to make sure he got over to the rail and completely missed Lookin at Lucky getting bumped. When Tom Durkin mentioned his name I glanced in his direction, but not for long, because I saw that Super Saver was on the rail and rating off the pace. And I'm thinking "If Calvin gets him through on the rail, nobody is going to beat him."

So I go back to watching Dublin. I see him steady in the early going, but not too badly. Then I see him drop back to the rear of the pack and get over towards the rail. I was happy for the moment and went back to looking at Super Saver.
So the race goes on. I hear Tom Durkin call a forty-six second flat half mile and I'm thinking "That's great for Dublin." Concerned that Super Saver may be too close to a hot pace, I look for him but see that he is a good eight lengths off the lead and go back to watching Conveyance.

Then I take a look at the race overall. Last year I completely missed Mine That Bird sneaking up the rail as they entered the final turn, and I didn't want to miss the winning move again. Seeing nobody coming fast, I look back at the leaders and see Noble's Promise make his big move to take the lead. At the point, I'm thinking "Is anybody going to catch this colt?" when I see Super Saver coming on the rail. But then I see Dublin coming as well, and the filly Devil May Care and I forget about everything. Past performances, charts, and data mean nothing. This is the Kentucky Derby and I don't care who wins. Whoever comes away from the twenty horse mess with a victory will be cheered by me in the Preakness, even if I had predicted the horse to run last in the Derby.

Into the homestretch I see Dublin approaching and stalling. I glance back at the rail and I can't believe I'm seeing this. Calvin Borel in on the rail, clear by two lengths, with the wire less than a furlong away!

And then I see Ice Box. He's coming fast, but I knew that he was too late. Super Saver flew under the wire first, giving Calvin Borel his third Derby win in four years. For a moment, that's all I can think about. The colt I have liked since last November had come through and won the Derby.

But then NBC cut to a scene of Todd Pletcher, and that's when I realized that he had finally got that elusive Derby win. Nine years of trying, nine years of losing. In the week leading up to the Derby, he was forced to scratch the heavy favorite Eskendereya to an injury and then he had to drop Rule out of the race because he had been training poorly. Then he and the owners of Interactif decided not to run in the Derby and instead wait for a turf race. But none of that mattered now. Super Saver and Calvin Borel had done it for him, and it nearly brought me to tears. This has only happened once before, when I saw Zenyatta battle her way to the outside and mow down Gio Ponti to win the Breeders' Cup classic. To me, you can't beat moments like this. Great horses doing great things for great people.

And then there is WinStar. They have been trying to win the Kentucky Derby for several years now, and they finally get it despite losing their big name horse Endorsement days before the race. And Super Saver is a homebred, which I just love to hear. Hopefully WinStar will continue to breed great homebreds and become the next Calumet Farm!

So in conclusion, I will say that, without a doubt, the 2010 Kentucky Derby is one of my favorite races of all time. I will remember it fondly as long as I live, for not only was I completely happy with the results, it was the first Kentucky Derby that I discussed on my blog.

My top ten favorite moments in horse racing that I have ever witnessed are these;

1. Zenyatta winning the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic.
2. Super Saver winning the 2010 Kentucky Derby for Todd Pletcher, WinStar, and Calvin Borel.
3. Rachel Alexandra winning the 2009 Woodward Stakes. (I didn't see it, but I heard it on the radio.)
4. Curlin winning the 2008 Jockey Club Gold Cup and becoming North America's richest race horse. (I didn't actually see it, but I sat around all afternoon waiting for the Blood-Horse news alert!)
5. Presious Passion finish second in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Turf despite setting insane fractions for the distance.
6. Mine That Bird winning the 2009 Kentucky Derby after I had cheered him on for four months hoping he would get into the race.
7. Zenyatta winning the 2010 Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap while spotting the field considerable weight.
8. Following Better Talk Now as he hit the board in grade I stakes races at age ten. (Once again, I never saw him do it live, but I followed his career very closely!)
9. Blind Luck nailing Evening Jewel on the wire to win the 2010 Kentucky Oaks.
10. Rachel Alexandra wins the 2009 Kentucky Oaks by twenty lengths with no urging at all. (I didn't see it, but anxiously awaited the news alert!)

I could add a lot of other races on there, but right now those are my top ten favorite moments. Of course, should Super Saver sweep the Triple Crown I'll have to add that on there somewhere, but unless it is an especially dramatic race, it will not top Zenyatta's Classic victory. The only race I can see topping that would be Zenyatta winning the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic. . .

But we have months to discuss that. For now, I'm just glad to say that the Kentucky Derby could not have ended in a happier way and I'm looking forward to the Preakness. Will Super Saver sweep the Triple Crown? We will know for sure in just a few short weeks.

KENTUCKY OAKS RECAP

As exciting as the Kentucky Derby was, the Kentucky Oaks did provide a very exciting finish which had me on the edge of my seat. And unlike last year, the 2010 Kentucky Oaks drew a full field of fourteen, led by the three-time grade I winning filly Blind Luck, who scared all those who picked her to win (including myself) when it looked like she wasn't going to get there in time.

But just like in the Las Virgenes earlier this year, Blind Luck found a way to win despite everything and came home the winner of the 136th Kentucky Oaks.
I didn't see much of the post parade, but I did get to see them loading into the gate. It was pretty uneventful, although I don't think that Crisp really wanted to go in.

So off they went. Blind Luck, as expected, broke very slowly, but to my horror, front-running Crisp broke very slowly and never really got a chance to run her race. This was extremely disappointing, but that's the way it goes. Sometimes you get a perfect trip, sometimes you don't. But I feel sorry for her connections. She really had a good chance at winning.

But anyway, after the first quarter of a mile, it was the 9-1 fourth choice Tidal Pool who led the field. Ailalea, at 22-1, was racing in second with Age of Humor up close as well. Evenining Jewel was racing in fourth, followed by Joanie's Catch, It's Tea Time, Amen Hallelujah, Champagne d'Oro, Crisp, Jody Slew, Beautician, Quiet Temper, and Bella Diamante. Blind Luck was dead last, trailing the field by about ten lengths, and she was actually a bit farther back than I expected her to be. As for Amen Hallelujah, I had expected her to be on the lead, but she ran into some traffic issues on the first turn and was never seemed to be involved after that.
After a half mile in :48 flat, the positions were nearly unchanged. Normally in a race of this caliber and field size you see lots of position changing, but the only change to the position was that Amen Hallelujah moved in front of It's Tea Time. That was all!

But with three quarters of a mile run, and only three eighths of a mile to go, things were beginning to change. Blind Luck, who had dropped back to a good eleven lengths off the lead, had put in a strong run on the outside but was chasing slow fractions and was forced to go six or seven wide. Tidal Pool still led the way, but Evening Jewel was threatening on the outside and was looking very strong. Ailalea was still right there, and Beautician was beginning to pick it up as well. Amen Hallelujah was there, but not really closing in.

Into the homestretch they came and Evening Jewel tackled Tidal Pool. Blind Luck was still gaining on the outside, but not quite as fast. Beautician was putting in a strong run as well, but was running out of gas. Ailalea was right there but Amen Hallelujah was tiring.

At the eighth pole it was a tight battle. Evening Jewel led by a half length, but Tidal Pool wasn't giving up. Blind Luck was still three lengths behind, but creeping up with every stride. As they came down to the final sixteenth, Blind Luck came on again with a sudden surge. It looked like she was going to blow right by Evening Jewel, but the latter wasn't going to go down without a fight. For the final few yards, they ran as one, and they crossed the wire as one.

Who had won? Nobody knew. Down the stretch the two fillies had been exchanging the lead with every head bob and it was going to come down to the photo finish camera. Personally, I felt that Evening Jewel had gotten the win, just like I thought she had in the Las Virgenes. It actually didn't strike me until later that Evening Jewel and Blind Luck had met before, and both times it had come down to a head bob. Do I see the beginning of a rivalry?

Anyway, the photo was examined, and it clearly showed the Blind Luck had indeed gotten up in time to claim her fourth grade I win. Yes, it wasn't the fastest running of the Kentucky Oaks, and perhaps we won't see a Rachel Alexandra or a Rags to Riches come out of the race, but you've got to admit that it can't get more exciting than this.

As it turned out, the Kentucky Oaks was a big consolation for Blind Luck's jockey Rafael Bejarano, who's Derby mount Line of David ran eighteenth of twenty and never really did his best running on the sloppy sealed track. Hey, if you can't win the Derby, you might as well win the Oaks!

So here is the full order of finish. . .

1 Blind Luck
2 Evening Jewel
3 Tidal Pool
4 Beautician
5 Ailalea
6 Amen Hallelujah
7 Crisp
8 Quiet Temper
9 It's Tea Time
10 Joanie's Catch
11 Champagne d'Oro
12 Age of Humor
13 Jody Slew
14 Bella Diamante

. . . versus my selections.

1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 It's Tea Time
4 Evening Jewel
5 Jody Slew
6 Tidal Pool
7 Quiet Temper
8 Joanie's Catch
9 Amen Hallelujah
10 Ailalea
11 Champagne d'Oro
12 Age of Humor
13 Beautician
14 Bella Diamante

I actually didn't do all that bad here. I picked Blind Luck to win, and had Champagne d'Oro, Age of Humor, and Bella Diamante in the right places as well. The biggest surprise actually came from Beautician, who I thought ran quite well to finish fourth. It was a major surprise to me because I had her picked to run thirteenth. I just didn't think that she would fire. But she did, and she proved me wrong.

Jody Slew is the one who didn't fire. I tossed out her poor showing in the Fair Grounds Oaks due to the fact that she had missed training and I was sure that she was ready to rebound. Instead, she ran thirteenth and never threatened.

As for Joanie's Catch, whom I would have loved to have seen win, she ran tenth, beaten ten and three quarter lengths. It really wasn't the bad, considering she had to break from gate fourteen, race closer to the lead than she usually does, and go at least three wide on both turns. This filly is still one to watch this summer.

So overall, I'm pleased with how the Kentucky Oaks turned out. And who knows? Perhaps Blind Luck will show up for the Belmont Stakes next month. . . !

KENTUCKY DERBY UNDERCARD RECAP

Although I didn't post them last week, I wrote down my selections for the Kentucky Derby undercard races on Derby morning. I thought you might like to see how I did. I'll go through it race by race.

RACE ONE ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING RACE

Results

1 Stay Put
2 Vow to Wager
3 Kettle River
4 Rock Hard
5 Broken Tango

My Picks

1 Stay Put
2 Vow to Wager
3 Kettle River
4 Rock Hard
5 Broken Tango

Although it was only five horses, I must say I was quite pleased to have picked the complete order of finish!

RACE TWO ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Results

1 Zimmer
2 My Piano Man
3 Spicer
4 Raphael Alexandro
5 Bold Victory
6 L. C. Daytona
7 Henceforth
8 Bad Brad
9 Win It
10 Sneaky Dreams

My Picks

1 Zimmer
2 Bold Victory
3 Spicer
4 Raphael Alexandro
5 My Piano Man
6 Henceforth
7 L.C. Daytona
8 Sneaky Dreams
9 Bad Brad
10 Win It

Although I was pleased that I had picked the winner, I was even more pleased that Calvin Borel had won the race. It was at this time that I started to feel really good about Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby.

RACE THREE ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Results

1 Sheryl's Melody
2 Poplar Girl
3 C. S. Royce
4 Kathern's Kitten
5 Circleboundbay
6 Heart Union
7 Wicked Ravnina
8 Stormy Tess

My Picks

1 C. S. Royce
2 Sherly's Melody
3 Heart Union
4 Circleboundbay
5 Wicked Ravnina
6 Kathern's Kitten
7 Stormy Tess
8 Poplar Girl

I didn't do a great job handicapping that one, but I didn't do too badly. Calvin Borel finished last in this race on Stormy Tess while racing four wide. I got to wondering if he knew that the outside wasn't any good and that's why he felt so confident about keeping Super Saver on the rail. Just a thought.

RACE FOUR ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING

Results

1 Wise Dan
2 Macjoey
3 Good Lord
4 Bravo Whiskey
5 Don't Put It Back
6 Via Verde
7 Havelock
8 New Pais

My Picks

1 Via Verde
2 Don't Put It Back
3 Wise Dan
4 New Pais
5 Good Lord
6 Havelock
7 Bravo Whiskey
8 Macjoey

I didn't do too well here, but at least I acknowledged that Wise Dan had a chance.

RACE FIVE ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING

Results

1 Pickapocket
2 Rogue Victory
3 Hymm Book
4 Silver Mountain
5 Southern Exchange
6 Anarko
7 On My Dime

My Picks

1 Rogue Victory
2 Hymm Book
3 Pickapocket
4 Silver Mountain
5 Southern Exchange
6 Anarko
7 On My Dime

Well, I got the bottom three right --- my pick ran second. . . overall I didn't do too bad!

RACE SIX ---- EIGHT BELLES STAKES (gr. III)

Results

1 Buckleupbuttercup
2 Visavis
3 Hot Dixie Chick
4 Bell's Shows
5 Sister Resistor
6 Decelerator
7 Kantstopdancin

My Picks

1 Hot Dixie Chick
2 Decelerator
3 Buckleupbuttercup
4 Bell's Shoes
5 Visavis
6 Sister Resistor
7 Kantstopdancin

I was very surprised by Hot Dixie Chick's loss, as I'm sure many people were. I was even more surprised by the fact that Decelerator fell apart to finish sixth. But at least I had Kantstopdancin to finish last!

RACE SEVEN ---- CHURCHILL DISTAFF TURF MILE (gr. II)

Results

1 Phola
2 Hot Cha Cha
3 Miss Keller
4 Fantasia
5 Tizaqueena
6 Cure For Sale
7 Diamondrella

My Picks

1 Tizaqueena
2 Diamondrella
3 Phola
4 Fantasia
5 Hot Cha Cha
6 Miss Keller
7 Cure For Sale

I was totally not right on this one. My picks finished fifth and seventh. Is Diamondrella past her prime? It's hard to say. But Phola was very, very impressive.

RACE EIGHT ---- HUMANA DISTAFF (gr. I)

Results

1 Mona de Momma
2 Pretty Prolific
3 Informed Decision
4 Free Flying Soul
5 Warbling
6 Double Expresso
7 Cassidys Pride
8 Rated Fiesty
9 Dubai Majesty

My Picks

1 Informed Decision
2 Pretty Prolific
3 Warbling
4 Free Flying Soul
5 Dubai Majesty
6 Cassidys Pride
7 Mona de Momma
8 Rated Fiesty
9 Double Expresso

I didn't do very well here, but I did have Pretty Prolific and Free Flying Soul in the right spots. However, Informed Decision did have a bit of traffic to overcome, and was definitely coming late, so maybe with a cleaner trip she'd have won.

RACE NINE ---- CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES (gr. II)

Results

1 Atta Boy Roy
2 Warrior's Reward
3 Musket Man
4 Ventana
5 Accredit
6 Victory Notion
7 Kensei
8 Hamazing Destiny
9 Hull
10 Country Day
11 Munnings
12 Wall Street Wonder

My Picks

1 Musket Man
2 Warrior's Reward
3 Atta Boy Roy
4 Ventana
5 Hull
6 Munnings
7 Kensei
8 Accredit
9 Wall Street Wonder
10 Country Day
11 Hamazing Destiny
12 Victory Notion

I had the top four finishers right, just not in the right order. Musket Man did run into some traffic in the stretch and was blocked with just over a furlong to go, so he probably could have won if he had gotten a clear trip. But congratulations to Calvin Borel and Atta Boy Roy, who skimmed the rail to victory! It was a preview of what was to come. . .

RACE TEN ---- WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC STAKES (gr. I)

Results

1 General Quarters
2 Court Vision
3 Loup Breton
4 Battle of Hastings
5 Blues Street
6 Al Khali
7 Yate's Black Cat
8 Wise River
9 Pop Tarrt

My Picks

1 Court Vision
2 Battle of Hastings
3 Loup Breton
4 General Quarters
5 Al Khali
6 Blues Street
7 Wise River
8 Yate's Black Cat
9 Pop Tarrt

I was close. . . very close. Court Vision had the lead in the stretch, but just couldn't maintain it. General Quarters out fought him to the wire. But to be honest, I kind of wanted General Quarters to win. I just didn't think he could. As for Battle of Hastings, he never got a chance to make his run, due to the amount of traffic he ran into.

RACE ELEVEN ---- KENTUCKY DERBY (gr. I) (See above!)

RACE TWELVE ---- ALLOWANCE

Results

1 E Z's Gentleman
2 Handleman
3 Omniscient
4 Coronet of a Baron
5 Grand Daddy
6 A. U. Miner
7 Devastador
8 Marquee Event
9 Thunder Jack

My Picks

1 E Z's Gentleman
2 Handleman
3 Omniscient
4 Coronet of a Baron
5 Marquee Event
6 Grand Daddy
7 Thunder Jack
8 A. U. Miner
9 Devastador

Yes, I got the bottom five wrong, but the fact is I had the top four right --- not too bad! You might call this race a consolation prize for Bob Baffert, who trains the winner. Good for him!

RACE THIRTEEN ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Results

1 Galientos
2 Moe Man
3 Easy to Please Me
4 Scary Good
5 Imperial Pride
6 Forest Coast
7 Irish Emperor
8 Deets
9 Mr Ruff
10 Thunder Highway
11 Angus Drive

My Picks

1 Moe Man
2 Galientos
3 Scary Good
4 Imperial Pride
5 Easy to Please Me
6 Irish Emperor
7 Deets
8 Forest Coast
9 Mr Ruff
10 Angus Drive
11 Thunder Highway

Once again, I was close but not quite right. I had the top five finishers right, just not in the right order. I will mention, however, that Galientos was very impressive and might be a horse to keep an eye on. He probably won't end up doing anything, but you never know. . .

KENTUCKY OAKS UNDERCARD RECAP

And to conclude this extremely long post, I shall discuss the undercard of the Kentucky Oaks, comparing my picks to the actual results.

RACE ONE ---- ALLOWANCE

Results

1 Ravi's Song
2 Yonakee
3 Fortune Play
4 Diamond Song
5 Irish Witch
6 Dixie Pixie
7 Zone
8 Color Me Up

My Picks

1 Ravi's Song
2 Color Me Up
3 Dixie Pixie
4 Yonakee
5 Diamond Song
6 Fortune Play
7 Irish Wish
8 Zone

I picked the winner, but that was about it. Still not bad though.

RACE TWO ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Results

1 Azurite
2 Island Bound
3 Rigamaro
4 Shirley She Can
5 Rendition
6 Smarty's Dream
7 English Girl
8 Crown the Cat
9 Up and Away
10 Karen Ann
11 Officers Glory

My Picks

1 Azurite
2 English Girl
3 Island Bound
4 Smarty's Dream
5 Shirley She Can
6 Crown the Cat
7 Rigamaro
8 Officer's Glory
9 Rendition
10 Karen Ann
11 Up and Away

Picked another winner, and was pretty close on every horse. Not too bad!

RACE THREE ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Results

1 Quick Delivery
2 Bird Empire
3 Tonto Fontenot
4 Belgrave Square
5 Bascom Hall
6 Hybrid
7 Soldero
8 Gigantos
9 Admiral Benbow
10 Sudden Interest
11 Spoon River Lew
12 Kildare Cat

My Picks

1 Quick Delivery
2 Kildare Cat
3 Gigantos
4 Hybrid
5 Bird Empire
6 Soldero
7 Belgrave Square
8 Bascom Hall
9 Admiral Benbow
10 Tonto Fontenot
11 Spoon River Lew
12 Sudden Interest

Once again, I hit the winner, but failed beyond there. But picking winners is better than picking the horses that run last!

RACE FOUR ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING

Results

1 Funny Feeling
2 Fuzzy Britches
3 Elusive Jozi
4 Glowing Report
5 Go for Jan
6 Oscar de La Thorn
7 Water of Life
8 Briningdown Babel
9 Souma
10 All Country

My Picks

1 Elusive Jozi
2 Fuzzy Britches
3 Souma
4 Oscar de La Thorn
5 Go for Jan
6 Water of Life
7 All Country
8 Funny Feeling
9 Glowing Report
10 Bringingdown Babel

In this race, my pick was Mallory Square, but she scratched from the race. But I still didn't do too badly with Elusive Jozi, although I had the winner to run eighth. . .

RACE FIVE ---- ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING

Results

1 Danzon
2 Coulee
3 Forest Trail (DH)
3 War Tigress (DH)
5 Grande Annee
6 Susies Gal
7 Missit
8 Kiss Mine
9 Deputy Darling
10 Flaming Slew
11 Absolutely Cindy

My Picks

1 Danzon
2 Missit
3 Forest Trail
4 War Tigress
5 Grand Annee
6 Coulee
7 Deputy Darling
8 Kiss Mine
9 Flaming Slew
10 Susies Gal
11 Absolutely Cindy

I did very well here. I picked the winner, the last place finisher, the third place finisher, and the fourth place finisher. (Although there really was no fourth place finisher here. . .)

RACE SIX ---- LA TROIENNE STAKES (gr. II)

Results

1 Unrivaled Belle
2 Rachel Alexandra
3 Morena
4 Distinctive Dixie
5 Zardana
6 Be Fair

My Picks

1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Zardana
3 Unrivaled Belle
4 Be Fair
5 Morena
6 Distinctive Dixie

It's not too often that six horses are separated by so much, and yet so little. The race set up like I expected it to, with Be Fair breaking on top, but the 1-5 favorite Rachel Alexandra surprised me by going to the front very quickly and taking the lead while three wide on the first turn. As expected, Unrivaled Belle sat back in third, while Zardana got into just a bit of trouble on the first turn and failed to threaten from then on. In the mean time, Be Fair gave way on the rail, allowing Unrivaled Belle to sneak into second with three eighths of a mile to go. Morena was on the move from last, while Zardana was trying to rally while four wide. Distinctive Dixie was right in the middle of everything.

This is where Rachel Alexandra was supposed to pull away and win by twenty. But Unrivaled Belle stayed right there with her into the stretch and out fought the champion to the wire, winning by a head. Rachel Alexandra finished second, five lengths in front of Morena. Distinctive Dixie tired to finish fourth, while Zardana was a poor fifth as the 5-1 second choice. Be Fair tired to finish last, beaten twenty-two and three quarter lengths by the winner.

RACE SEVEN ---- KENTUCKY JUVENILE STAKES (gr. III)

Results

1 Lou Brissie
2 Boys At Tosconova
3 Twelve Pack Shelly
4 Wetzel
5 Nina Fever

My Picks

1 Nina Fever
2 Lou Brissie
3 Wetzel
4 Twelve Pack Shelly
5 Boys At Tosconova

I was. . . nowhere near right. My pick ran last, but at least I knew that Lou Brissie could pull the upset. As for the horse who ran second, I had him picked to run last. . .

RACE EIGHT ---- CHURCHILL DOWNS TURF SPRINT STAKES (gr. III)

Results

1 Silver Timber
2 Chamberlain Bridge
3 Central City
4 Formidable
5 Moralist
6 Starfish Bay
7 Barge
8 Perfect Officer
9 Mitigation
10 Heavenly Chorus
11 Lit'sgoodlookngray

My Picks

1 Starfish Bay
2 Silver Timber
3 Chamberlain Bridge
4 Perfect Officer
5 Barge
6 Formidable
7 Heavenly Chorus
8 Lit'sgoodlookngray
9 Moralist
10 Central City
11 Mitigation

Well, I was very close, but not quite right. After seeing the results, I realized that I had fallen for an area of handicapping that I have always pretty much ignored --- final times. In Starfish Bay's last race, she ran something like two seconds faster than Silver Timber did in his last race. Of course, I knew none of the details of either race, but just decided to go with that and picked Starfish Bay for the victory. Wrong. . . although she was only beaten two lengths for the win. But at least I had the winner to run second, and the runner up to finish third!

RACE NINE ---- ALYSHEBA STAKES (gr. III)

Results

1 Arson Squad
2 Flying Private
3 Enriched
4 Prom Shoes
5 Chocolate Candy
6 Cool Coal Man
7 Macho Again
8 Friesan Fire
9 Bullsbay

My Picks

1 Chocolate Candy
2 Bullsbay
3 Arson Squad
4 Friesan Fire
5 Cool Coal Man
6 Macho Again
7 Enriched
8 Prom Shoes
9 Flying Private

Okay. . . I admit it. I was completely wrong about this one. Let's move on to the next race. . . !

Oh, I'm just kidding. Getting serious, I was wrong, but I'm not complaining. I like the old horses and whenever a seven year old can win against his younger rivals, I love it. Arson Squad is now my pick for a certain set of races that are in the future. But I won't get into that until after the Belmont Stakes is over. . .
And also, good for Flying Private and D. Wayne Lukas. Perhaps he can take Flying Private to a new level.

RACE TEN ---- AMERICAN TURF STAKES (gr. II)

Results

1 Doubles Partner
2 Asphalt
3 Guys Reward
4 Setsuko
5 Workin for Hops
6 Gleam of Hope
7 Saint Eligius
8 Strike the Tiger
9 Lost Aptitude

My Picks

1 Guys Reward
2 Setsuko
3 Workin for Hops
4 Doubles Partner
5 Lost Aptitude
6 Alfarabi
7 Gleam of Hope
8 Asphalt
9 Strike the Tiger
10 Saint Eligius

I was close, very close, but not quite on. I respected Doubles Partner, and was not surprised at all when he won. I just wish that I had stuck with Asphalt, a colt I have liked for many months. He ran an excellent race to finish second. Workin for Hops didn't run as well as I hoped he would, and Guys Reward came with too little too late. But overall, not a bad race. A pretty sharp time, too. I would watch out for Doubles Partner later this year. Breeders' Cup Turf? Who knows!

RACE ELEVEN ---- THE KENTUCKY OAKS (See above!)

RACE THIRTEEN ---- MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT

Results

1 Bialy
2 Ready to Sing
3 Ash Zee
4 Go Pro
5 Hottie Dancer
6 Lil' Moor Dixie
7 Derby Lane's Song
8 Awesome Temper
9 Wyn Jym

My Picks

1 Awesome Temper
2 Bialy
3 Ready to Sing
4 Go Pro
5 Ash Zee
6 Wyn Jym
7 Lil' Moor Dixie
8 Hottie Dancer
9 Derby Lane's Song

Well, I had Go Pro in the right spot. . . but that was it. My longshot pick Awesome Temper ran next to last while finishing seventeen lengths behind the winner. Not the stuff of champions. But my second choice, Bialy, came through to claim a three and a half length victory of Ready to Sing, whom I had picked to run third. So really not to bad!

And that is all. It took me a while, but I succeeded in recapping everything that happened last week. And I must say that it was very fun.
The Derby could not have ended better. So until next time, this is Keelerman saying so long. Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

P.S. Now that the Derby is over, I think I had better clean up my desk. I have so many results and charts and personal notes and papers and entries and magazines that if I don't do it now I'm not going to be able to find my computer by the time the Belmont Stakes rolls around! : D

Thursday, May 06, 2010

FINAL OPINIONS --- DAN J, ROSIE SEDGWICK, AND ELLEN F'S FINAL THOUGHTS

(Sorry I didn't get this interview posted before the Kentucky Oaks, I got delayed. But better late than never!)

"Hey, can you smell the roses?"
"Vaguely . . . but the smell of lilies is stronger."
Of course, this is just a generic conversation, but it is true. The Run for the Lilies, also known as the Kentucky Oaks, is being run tomorrow. I will be discussing it very thoroughly later today, but for now, I thought I would get some final opinions from Dan J, Rosie Sedgwick, and our new follower Ellen F on the Kentucky Oaks, the Kentucky Derby, the La Troienne, the American Turf Stakes, and a few other little things. So let's get started!

(The following are my questions, followed by Dan, Rosie, and Ellen’s answers.)

Q: Welcome back Dan, Rosie, and Ellen! I've got a lot of questions for you to answer, but to start, how do you feel overall about the Kentucky Derby and Oaks?

DJ: I'm excited. These should be an excellent set of races.

RS: There are so many truly wonderful horses that are currently scheduled to run; such as Stately Victor, Ice Box, Paddy O'Prado, and Mission Impazible---and that's to name only a few! As for the Kentucky Oaks, my personal favorite is Amen Hallelujah, followed closely by Blind Luck and Champagne d'Oro. These are some beautiful fillies!

EF: I'm intensely interested. For the Oaks, I suppose I'll go along with the favorite, Blind Luck. To tell you the truth, I haven't been following the Oaks that thoroughly, I'm more of a Derby fan myself. . . as for the Derby, I can't wait to see how the post positions are going to affect the field! And I hope Todd Pletcher finally gets a Derby winner.

Q: Now let's take a look at the field for the Oaks. A full field of fourteen has been entered, and Blind Luck is the very heavy favorite. Do you think that she will be upset?

DJ: No, I think she can do it. The Oaks seems to favor favorites. With Devil May Care headed for the Derby, Blind Luck's job just got that much easier.

RS: As Amen Hallelujah is my own favorite, I think she might be. Blind Luck is totally fabulous, but Amen Hallelujah may be able to pull off an upset. Blind Luck, however (from Post 5) has a better post position, so it's going to be interesting to see how this race comes out.

EF: It's highly possible, I mean, just because she's the favorite doesn't mean she's a sure thing. But I feel pretty confident in her.

Q: Who do you think has the best chance at upsetting her?

DJ: Hmmm...I don't think she will be. But if I must pick, let's go with Calvin Borel and take Tidal Pool.

RS: Amen Hallelujah! :)

EF: Well, Champagne d'Oro has an incredible sister out there. . . and Tidal Pool definitely deserves recognition. . .

Q: Do you think that we will see another Oaks/Derby jockey double, where the same jockey wins both races?

DJ: Well, that would be interesting (especially if it were Tidal Pool/Super Saver!) but I doubt it, it seems unlikely.

RS: Possibly, due to the fact that both Tidal Pool (in the Kentucky Oaks) and Super Saver (in the Kentucky Derby) are ridden by Calvin Borel, my thoughts are that there is a chance that this will happen.

EF: Well, it's a possibility. Anything can happen in the Two Kentuckies (as has been proven over and over again), so I'm not going to give a steadfast opinion either way. It might happen, but then again it might not. Does that make me wishy-washy? ;- )

Q: On the far outside is the 30-1 shot Joanie's Catch. She isn't very well liked, but somehow manages to keep hitting the board against pretty good competition. What do you think of her?

DJ: I like horses who just keep getting better, slowly, behind the radar, and then break out. Perhaps the Oaks will be her day.

RS: I think that she is a fairly strong horse, and therefore she might just have a shot at doing well.

EF: Consistency is good, but I like to see horses win consistently. 30-1 odds don't exactly boost my confidence in her. . . her record is admirable, and if she gets a miracle trip I think she could make it.

Q: In gate eight is the 8-1 co-second choice Tidal Pool. She finished second to Blind Luck in the Fantasy Stakes. She also has Calvin Borel in the saddle. What do you think of her chances?

DJ: I like her, but not as much as Blind Luck.

RS: Tidal Pool is definitely going to be finishing higher up in the Oaks race. It's interesting the way she finished second to Blind Luck in that race, and it might be the way things will end up in the Oaks. But longshots can sometimes pull off miracles . . . it's hard to say.

EF: Watch out, Oaks ladies, you've got a threat there!

Q: Would any of you care to reveal your Oaks trifectas?

DJ: Blind Luck, Tidal Pool, and Amen Hallelujah.

RS: Yes; I have thought quite a bit about this race and I would put my trifecta in this order: 1; Amen Hallelujah; 2; Blind Luck; 3; Tidal Pool.

EF: 1; Blind Luck, 2; Tidal Pool, 3; Champagne d'Oro (in passing, that's a very pretty name. . . 'Champagne of Gold'.)

Q: Now let's take a look at the Kentucky Derby. As usual, a huge field of twenty horses have entered. Lookin at Lucky, the 3-1 morning line favorite, has drawn the rail. Sidney's Candy, the 5-1 second choice, drew gate twenty. What do you think of that?

DJ: I think it's pretty wild. Lookin at Lucky is going to have to fight hard for a position and Sidney's Candy will probably be quite wide going into that first turn. But it may not matter.

RS: It's odd that both favorites of the Derby ended up with outside post positions. Lookin at Lucky is most certainly a powerful colt, as is Sidney's Candy. It's probable that they are going to do well in the race, but perhaps, due to their positions, something might happen . . . but look at Big Brown, the winner of the Kentucky Derby of 2008. He broke from Post 20, which is considered not so good, but think of what he came away with! The credentials of being the winner of one of the most prestigious races in the history of horse racing!

EF: I'm a bit worried about that. The #1 slot isn't the best place to be, and neither is #20. Lookin at Lucky can probably pull something off, but I don't have my sights set too high for Sidney's Candy. I'm not very impressed with him, though he did wire the Santa Anita.

Q: What do you think of Dublin drawing gate seventeen? Do you think it hurts his chances?

DJ: I don't think so. Think of Closing Argument, Big Brown, Smarty Jones. . .all of these horses had outside posts and performed well.

RS: If Dublin has really spectacular stamina, he'll have to show it on Derby day, because I doubt his post position will do him any good.

EF: I believe it will hurt him, but how much has yet to be determined. He's a strong colt, and D. Wayne Lukas is a terrific trainer. I'm confident.

Q: Stately Victor, the Blue Grass winner, has drawn gate six. He is 30-1 on the morning line. However, he has been training very well at Churchill Downs and many people think that his Blue Grass was no fluke. What do you think?

DJ: The Blue Grass has produced some inconsistent results in the past, so it's hard to say. But I'm going to stick with my opinion that Stately Victor will perform well in the Derby. I think he'll hit the board.

RS: I love Stately Victor; and since his training at Churchill Downs has been going well, I think he has a shot at victory.

EF: We-ell. . . flukes do happen. However, #6 is a good position, and his training has, indeed, been encouraging, so he might be able to surprise me.

Q: In gate ten is the Blue Grass runner up Paddy O'Prado. He has been looking very, very good at Churchill Downs and many feel he is sitting on a big race. He also has three-time Derby winning jockey Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. What do you think of him?

DJ: I like Stately Victor better.

RS: Paddy O'Prado is definitely looking interesting. I would say that he is one of the best colts running right now.

EF: He bears watching. Kent has been known to do amazing things, not to mention he has a good gate position.

Q: The filly Devil May Care, who was entered in only the Kentucky Derby, drew gate eleven. What do you think of her chances?

DJ: I think she's probably a good filly, but this is a tough field. My gut feeling is that she's going to tire in the stretch.

RS: It would be great seeing a filly win, but the colts will be pretty stiff competition.

EF: I'm all for the fillies! I was one of those who cheered Eight Belles on in 2008, and Rags to Riches was my pick for the 2007 Belmont. If she wins, I won't be crying!
Q: Super Saver, at 15-1, drew gate four. He will be ridden by two time Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel. What do you think of his chances?

DJ: I think Super Saver should be watched carefully. I like him a lot.

RS: I've been a fan of Super Saver for awhile now. Super Saver's great!

EF: Calvin Borel has my utmost respect, and Super Saver looks terrific to me. The odds don't worry me, and the #4 gate is a coveted position. So, I think his chances are good.

Q: What about the twelve horse, Conveyance? He doesn't seem to be a mile and a quarter horse, but many feel this front running son of Indian Charlie could get the job done. What do you think?

DJ: I think Conveyance can do it. If Lookin at Lucky doesn't get the job done, perhaps Conveyance can get another Derby win for Bob Baffert.

RS: Conveyance has been one of the horses that is down the list of my Derby picks; although I must admit, he's may do well.

EF: A front runner, hmmm. . . I have the niggling suspicion that he'll start out strong and then fade off as the race progresses.

Q: Make Music for Me is another interesting colt. His morning line odds are 50-1, but he has finished second and third behind Lookin at Lucky multiple times. What do you think of him?

DJ: I don't know too much about this colt, but I do like Santa Anita horses in the Derby. And if he's been racing behind Lookin at Lucky, and Lookin at Lucky get's trapped behind horses because of his #1 post position. . . hmm . . .

RS: I love Make Music for Me! He was one of my original Derby picks (I had him second for awhile there) and I was so disappointed when I found out he wouldn't be running . . . but then he got in! I think he has a wonderful chance of doing well.

EF: He isn’t my favorite. But neither esd Mine That Bird, and how could anyone forget how that little gelding?

Q: What about the thirteen horse Jackson Bend? Despite the fact that his pedigree doesn't scream a mile and a quarter, this colt never gives up and always fights to the finish. What do you think of his chances?

DJ: Well, I wasn't expecting him to get in the Derby, so now I've got to rethink things. I think he could be sitting on an impressive run. Part of what makes the Derby so exciting is that we don't really know if any of the horses can go a mile and a quarter---none of them ever have! Who knows? I like Jackson Bend.

RS: From what I've heard, Jackson Bend is a determined and tough horse, so I would say yes, I think he'll be able to pull off something.

EF: He's definitely got drive, and determination, but I'm not sure if he has enough to really be a factor towards the end of the race. His broodmare sire, however, is Tabasco Cat. . . the 1994 Preakness and Belmont winner. . . he could do something.

Q: Mission Impazible, the Louisiana Derby winner, seems to be coming into the race the right way. He has been improving in every start and has really taken to Churchill Downs. He also seems to like wet tracks. What do you think of his chances?

DJ: This Derby track probably will be wet, so that's something in his favor.

RS: Very good. I have been quite impressed with this guy.

EF: Very, very good. I like what I see. He's a strong runner and if he keeps improving the way he has, I think he should peak at the Derby.

Q: I find it interesting that three of the last four Derby winners have made their final starts five weeks before the big day. This year, that pattern favors Dean's Kitten, Mission Impazible, Conveyance, and Discreetly Mine. Do you think that those magical five week layoffs will provide a Derby winner yet again?

DJ: This is an interesting trend, but I'm going to skip over these horses and look one week further back, to Ice Box. I liked his run in the Florida Derby.

RS: Personally, I haven't been giving Dean's Kitten, Conveyance, or Discreetly Mine much thought as for a Kentucky Derby win, but as I said before, Mission Impazible is really an excellent horse.

EF: A layoff is good, and as I have said before, I like Mission Impazible's looks. Discreetly Mine, Conveyance, Dean's Kitten --- well, I'm not too excited. I doubt they'll hit the board.

Q: What about Homeboykris? He hasn't raced in nine weeks, and hasn't done anything of note since last October when he won the Champagne. But in that race, he defeated Discreetly Mine, Super Saver, and Dublin, all of whom made it to this year's Kentucky Derby. What do you think of his chances?

DJ: I think he could be another Giacomo or Mind That Bird. This horse should definitely be considered, and I always watch the Champagne winner very closely.

RS: Homeboykris should definitely be watched.

EF: October was a long time ago, but the Champagne is nothing to be sneezed at. He might make the board.

Q: Then there is Awesome Act. The Wood Memorial was a nightmare but he still finished third, beaten only a head for second. What do you think of his chances here?

DJ: I'm less impressed with this horse. I believe the Wood was run very slowly, and the horses behind Eskendreya were way up the track.

RS: Because of Awesome Act's trouble in the Wood Memorial, I am not too thrilled with him. But you can't just forget about him; he might just pull off something.

EF: Awesome Act has had a nightmare in the Wood Memorial; hopefully he'll get a dream trip in the Derby.

Q: Now let's briefly discuss the grade II American Turf Stakes, which will be run right before the Kentucky Oaks this afternoon. Eleven horses entered, but the ten horse, Make Music for Me will be scratching because he managed to sneak into the Kentucky Derby. But the big name in the race is Setsuko, who many feel is the best three year old in the country right now. Unfortunately, he did not make it into the Derby. But the Belmont is still a possibility. What do you think of him in general and in this race?

DJ: I think he could run well here, and he could be something to watch out for in the Belmont.

RS: He's a lovely horse, and the Turf Stakes' runners should be on the lookout for this amazingly incredible colt.

EF: He is undeniably one of the better horses this year, despite his insufficient graded earnings. I firmly believe he will hit the board.

Q: Who do you think will win the American Turf Stakes? Setsuko, the morning line favorite Lost Aptitude, or one of the longer shots like Doubles Partner or Guys Reward?

DJ: I'm taking Lost Aptitude and Kent Desormeaux.

RS: I would go with Saint Eligius, ridden by Alan Garcia.

EF: Give me Doubles Partner. He's got a great jockey, a great trainer, and a fair gate position.

Q: Now let's take a look at the grade II La Troienne Stakes, also on the Oaks undercard. The grade II race for fillies and mares three year old and upward drew a small field of six, but includes reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Zardana, who upset her in the New Orleans Ladies last March, is also here. What do you think of the race?

DJ: Rachel Alexandra will win it, easy.

RS: Rachel Alexandra is really a quite terrific horse, and she's most definitely my choice.

EF: Be fair to Be Fair. Though I would like to see her a little further out from the rail, and with slightly lower odds, she looks good to me, and I think that second place is hers.

Q: Do you think that Rachel Alexandra will be upset? She does have to carry four to six pounds more than any other entry.

DJ: No, I think Rachel has got this one. She just wasn't quite ready in that last race.

RS: It's hard to say . . . My pick is Rachel Alexandra, but you never know.
EF: No. Enough said. : )

Q: Care to reveal your top two picks?

DJ: Rachel Alexandra and Unrivaled Belle

RS: Rachel Alexandra and Unrivaled Belle!!

EF: Rachel Alexandra and Be Fair, followed very closely by Zardana.

Q: Let's take a quick glance at the grade III Kentucky Juvenile Stakes for two year old colts or fillies, four races before the Kentucky Oaks. If you can believe it, the three favorites are fillies. The morning line favorite at 5-2 is the seven horse Nina Fever, who will be ridden by Robby Albarado. Do you think that she will win?

DJ: She looks good to me.

RS: Nina Fever looks spectacular in this race, but Boys at Tosconova also looks pretty good.

Q: Among the six colts, Wetzel is the co-favorite with Lou Brissie. Do you think that they can upset the fillies?

DJ: Well, it's certainly possible, but I like the favorite here.

RS: Possibly, possibly . . . I like Wetzel myself, but I'm doubting an upset here, for different reasons.

EF: Wetzel and Lou Brissie are obviously good horses, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see either of them be an upset.

Q: I'm down to the final few questions. The Alysheba Stakes, two races before the Kentucky Oaks, drew an impressive field of older males. The morning line favorite is Arson Squad, just narrowly favored over last year's Kentucky Derby favorite Friesan Fire. Cool Coal Man, Chocolate Candy, Macho Again, Bullsbay, and Flying Private make this a truly memorable field. Who do you think will win?

DJ: Wow, what a field! Hard to pick, but I'm going with Cool Coal Man.

RS: Chocolate Candy, although Arson Squad seems like he's ready for anything.

EF: Friesan Fire was one of my favorites in the Derby last year, but his finish was disappointing. Nevertheless, he's my pick.

Q: What about the grade III Eight Belles Stakes on Derby Day? Do you think that there is any chance of Hot Dixie Chick being upset?

DJ: No, she looks good to me.

RS: I personally like Bell's Shoes---and I must say, I'm so excited that Eight Belles got her own stakes! She was a remarkable little filly who is greatly missed.

EF: Uhhhh, not really. . . she's an impressive filly.

Q: Now, this is final race that we are going to discuss. The Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes, run right before the Kentucky Derby. Two of the runners, Court Vision and General Quarters, both also-rans from their crops Kentucky Derby. Court Vision finished off the board behind Big Brown in 2008, while General Quarters ran tenth behind Mine That Bird last year. What do you think of their chances here?

DJ: I'm taking General Quarters here. I liked him last year, so maybe he can do better this time.

RS: Court Vision! I don't exactly know why, but I've always been very fond of him.

EF: I think the top three will be; Court Vision, Battle of Hastings, General Quarters.

Q: Final question. Would anyof you care to reveal your Derby super high fives?

DJ: Okay here it goes: #1, Dublin. #2, Lookin at Lucky, #3, Ice Box, #4, Stately Victor, #5, Super Saver.

RS: Stately Victor is first for me . . . then Dublin, then Homeboykris, then Ice Box, and then Super Saver.

EF: Line of David is calling loudly to me. I can't stop thinking how he blasted out of the gate in the Arkansas. . . so, even though I'm doubtful about his ability to go a mile and a quarter, I'm putting him at #1, followed closely by Devil May Care, Dublin, Mission Impazible, and Paddy O'Prado.

Thanks for the interviews, you three!

-Keelerman

Saturday, May 01, 2010

SUPER SAVER WINS THE KENTUCKY DERBY!!!

Super Saver won!!! Calvin Borel won his third Kentucky Derby in four years, Todd Pletcher won his first Derby, and WinStar Farm won their first!

Dublin didn't quite get there, however.

Congratulations Calvin, Todd, and WinStar!!

-Keelerman

POST TIME!

Something tells me that Dean's Kitten is going to run a great race. . . I'm not sure what, but I feel like he's sitting on a big race.

Ice Box may be just a bit overlooked.

Lookin at Lucky is now 6-1. . . Dublin is still 19-1. . . Super Saver is 7-1. It's nearly time!

The sun has finally come out. It's sloppy, but at least it's pretty.

American Lion was acting up a bit. . . Dublin may be just a bit upset. . .

THEY'RE GETTING INTO THE GATE!!! IT'S NEARLY TIME!!!!

Discreetly Mine just went in, Stately Victor is going in right now. There goes Awesome Act, and there's Dublin! Dublin doesn't look very good!

Here comes Homeboykris!

SUPER SAVER WON!!!!!

IT'S TIME!!!!

The jockeys are on their horses! The call to the post is being called! It's almost time for "My Old Kentucky Home!"

It's started now! The horses are coming out on to the track!

There's Lookin at Lucky and Garrett Gomez! It's just five minutes until post time!

"My Old Kentucky Home" is over now. There's Calvin and Super Saver! Boy, is that track sloppy!

They're discussing Lookin at Lucky on NBC now. . . Ice Box is on the screen. There's Noble's Promise! Super Saver is back on the screen.

Line of David looks very calm. Stately Victor looks good too. American Lion looks very pretty. Dean's Kitten looks a little bit nervous. Make Music for Me looks excellent. Paddy O'Prado looks a little nervous. Devil May Care is very calm. Conveyance looks really good.

Jackson Bend looks very nice. . . I would love to see him win. Mission Impazible looks nice. Missed Discreetly Mine, but Awesome Act looks nice.

There's Dublin! He looks great! Backtalk is calm, and here comes Homeboykris! He looks very calm. They all look calm. :)

Finally, here is Sidney's Candy. He looks calm too!

-Keelerman

IT'S GETTING CLOSER. . .

The weather is improving at Louisville. It is perhaps just a bit sunny now. . .

It's getting closer! They're leading the horses out and the jockeys have their silks on! It's only fifteen minutes until the Derby!

Dublin's on TV now! There he is! Go Dublin!

-Keelerman

THE WALK

Well, everybody is walking across the track now. The owners, the trainers, etc. On NBC, they are interviewing Todd Pletcher. He expects Super Saver and Calvin Borel to be on the rail. Oh, so exciting!!

Now they're interviewing John Sadler. Oops! They just said that he HAS trained a Kentucky Derby starter! That means that you can exclude Sidney's Candy and Line of David from my list of horses who are trained by first time Derby trainers.

They're talking to Jeremy Noseda, Awesome Act's trainer.

Now they're interviewing Nick Zito. He's not really concerned about the fact that Ice Box has not raced in six weeks.

Now they're talking to Kenny McPeek. He sounds really excited.

Now it's an interview with Calvin Borel. He says that he doesn't have to go to the rail, but that's where he likes to be. He's confident that Super Saver will like the track.

-Keelerman

STILL MORE UPDATES

Can Conveyance wire the Kentucky Derby? He is currently 28-1.

Dublin is up to 19-1. . . and Homeboykris is now 25-1. Lookin at Lucky has dropped to 7-1. Sidney's Candy is now 9-1 and the filly Devil May Care is still the fourth choice at 10-1.

It's less than an hour away!

MORE UPDATES

Will Lookin at Lucky get a good start? Will Sidney's Candy stumble out of the gate? Will Dublin finally finish off his late run? We'll find out soon!

Although I don't think he will win, Dean's Kitten may have a shot. According to my "Two Unusual Factors" that seem to pop up all the time in Kentucky Derby winners, he can win. He is out of his sire's first crop and his trainer has never had a Kentucky Derby starter before. He does seem to be improving.

But then again, Stately Victor is also out of his sire's first crop, and his trainer has never has a Derby starter either. So maybe it will be one of them.

-Keelerman

GENERIC UPDATES

Well, it's only about an hour and ten minutes until the Derby. . . it's getting close. It's only 66 degrees in Louisville, and it's been pouring rain. Discreetly Mine is the longshot right now at 35-1. I can't believe that Homeboykris is down to 24-1. I figured he would be about 75-1. . . Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver are the co-favorites at 8-1. My boy Dublin is currently 18-1.

The filly Devil May Care has better odds than I thought she would. She is currently the 10-1 fourth choice. Wouldn't it be cool if she became the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby? And then she would give Todd Pletcher his first Derby win!

More updates will come through out the day.

-Keelerman

General Quarters won the Turf Classic Stakes! Court Vision was second!

Wise River has the lead. . . Court Vision is ten lengths behind!

Photo finish!!!! General Quarters won by a head! Court Vision was second, Lou Breton was third.

Very, very close!

THE WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC STAKES

It's just a few minutes until post. . . I've picked Court Vision over Battle of Hastings.

Here are my picks. . .

1 Court Vision
2 Battle of Hastings
3 Lou Breton
4 General Quarters
5 Blues Street
6 Al Khali

They're in the gate!

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- THE KENTUCKY DERBY

Well, this is it. The big one. Everything on this blog has been leading up to this race. (As well as the Preakness and Belmont.)

It is the Kentucky Derby. A mile and a quarter. Two million dollars. Over one million dollars to the winner. And a chance at Triple Crown glory.

As usual, the race drew a tough field of twenty relatively unproven three year old colts. Add this to the fact that there is a 70% chance of rain in Louisville on Derby Day and you have yourself an impossible to handicap mess.

But just the same, I'm going to try and pick the winner.

Yes, it's going to be hard, and yes the odds of doing so are small, but hey, it's the Derby and everybody has a pick.

I'll begin by going through every runner in the field, starting with the number one horse and ending with the number twenty horse. Then I'll discuss my picks. But unlike all of my other race previews, where I simply discussed my thoughts of each horse and listed some facts, I'm not going to do that. Well, I'm going to do it, but in a slightly different format.

Let's begin.

1. Lookin at Lucky
Birthdate - May 27th
Sire - Smart Strike (By Mr. Prospector)
Dam - Private Feeling (By Belong to Me)
Owner - Karl Watson Michael E Pegram and Paul Weitman
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Garrett Gomez
Last Race --- Santa Anita Derby, finished 3rd
Pros --- He has been very consistent, always finishing in the top three. He has a solid two year old foundation. He has won three grade one races and nearly won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He has shown that he can overcome traffic in more than one race, and re-rally after getting blocked. Trainer Bob Baffert has won three Derbies and finished second in two more. He will not wear blinkers this time. He has been training extremely well at Churchill Downs.
Cons --- He always manages to find trouble, he eases himself up when he takes the lead, and Smart Strike has never sired a Derby winner. He is also breaking from the dreaded gate one. He seems to run his best races on the outside.
Pedigree --- His pedigree isn't exactly a classic Derby winning pedigree, but it does say that a mile and a quarter is within his reach.

2. Ice Box
Birthdate - March 29th
Sire - Pulpit (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Spice Island (Tabasco Cat)
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Jose Lezcano
Last Race --- Ice Box, finished 1st
Pros --- He is one of the few deep closers in the Kentucky Derby, which could set up for him well if the pace is fast enough. Nick Zito has won two Kentucky Derbies. Ice Box has been improving all year and looks ready for a career best effort.
Cons --- Gate two isn't the greatest place to start, but not too bad considering his style. It is hard to close at Churchill Downs when the track is wet, and considering the amount of rain scheduled for tomorrow, he may not be able to get there in time.
Pedigree --- Pulpit seems to sire mile and an eighth/one mile horses, but he does have Tabasco Cat as a broodmare sire. It does say that a mile and a quarter is within his reach, but that he may get better with age.

3. Noble's Promise
Birthdate - April 13th
Sire - Cuvee (Carson City)
Dam - The Devil's Trick (Clever Trick)
Owner - Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 LLC
Trainer - Kenneth McPeek
Jockey - W. Martinez
Last Race --- Arkansas Derby, finished 5th
Pros --- He has a solid two year old foundation, running just behind Lookin at Lucky three times, and although he is winless in two starts this year, he was only beaten a nose in one while having plenty of excuses in the other. He has been training well at Churchill Downs, and gets W. Martinez back.
Cons --- He came out of the Arkansas Derby with cuts and a lung infection, but he seems to have recovered. Gate three does not really suit his style.
Pedigree --- It does not say a mile and a quarter anywhere. His sire was a miler at best.

4. Super Saver
Birthdate - March 18th
Sire - Maria's Mon (By Wavering Monarch)
Dam - Supercharger (By A.P. Indy)
Owner - WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Calvin Borel
Last Race --- Arkansas Derby, finished 2nd
Pros --- He has Calvin Borel as a jockey, and he has a excellent win over this track, he was only beaten a neck in his last race, and his speed figures have been improving. His sire sired the 2001 Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. He has had experience with off tracks.
Cons --- He seems to have perhaps just a little bit of stamina issues, and he likes to race on the lead. But hopefully, with Calvin Borel in the saddle, he will learn to rate just off the lead.
Pedigree --- Pretty good. It looks like it will take him a mile and a quarter.

5. Line of David
Birthdate - March 2nd
Sire - Lion Heart (By Tale of the Cat)
Dam - Emma's Dilemma (By Capote)
Owner - Dawn and Ike Thrash
Trainer - John Sadler
Jockey - Rafael Bejarano
Last Race - Arkansas Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- He is without a doubt one of the fastest horses in the race, and has a lot of courage. He is undefeated while wearing blinkers and just keeps improving.
Cons --- He doesn't seem to be a mile and a quarter horse, and he hates mud.
Pedigree --- I'm afraid that it does not say anything about a mile and a quarter. He doesn't seem to like mud at all, but his sire Lion Heart ran second to Smarty Jones in the 2004 Kentucky Derby on a very sloppy track.

6. Stately Victor
Birthdate - May 1st
Sire - Ghostzapper (By Awesome Again)
Dam - Collect the Cash (By Dynaformer)
Owner - F Thomas Conway and Jack Conway
Trainer - Michael Maker
Jockey - Alan Garcia
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 1st
Pros --- Excellent pedigree, has been training nicely, has a grade I win under his belt, and has been improving. Has been running against some very good company. He finished second behind Winslow Homer in his maiden race on an off track. Has been training very well and looks really good.
Cons --- Has yet to run really well on dirt and has the Blue Grass winner curse on him.
Pedigree --- His pedigree screams a mile and a quarter and even a mile and a half. If he takes to the dirt track, he is extremely dangerous.

7. American Lion
Birthdate - February 10th
Sire - Tiznow (By Cee's Tizzy)
Dam - Storm Tide (By Storm Cat)
Owner - WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer - Eoin Harty
Jockey - David Flores
Last Race - Illinois Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- Solid pedigree, visually impressive win in the Illinois Derby, and could not be training and looking any better. He has the perfect post position for his style, and should get a brilliant trip.
Cons --- Seems to have a bit of distance limitations, the final time in the Illinois Derby was 1:51 1/5, and doesn't seem to be quite as good as some of the others.
Pedigree --- His pedigree screams a mile and a quarter, but it may not be within his grasp. He looks like a mile/mile and an eighth horse, but there is no denying that he is going to get a good trip.

8. Dean's Kitten
Birthdate - February 10th
Sire - Kitten's Joy (By El Prado)
Dam - Summer Theater (By Ide)
Owner - Kenneth L and Sarah K Ramsey
Trainer - Michael Maker
Jockey - Robby Albarado
Last Race - Lane's End Stakes, finished 1st
Pros - Has been improving for some time and has been training rather well. Visually impressive in the Lane's End Stakes. Comes into the Derby off of a five week layoff.
Cons - In his only start on dirt, he finished last of five, beaten thirty-three and three quarter lengths while earnings a Beyer speed figure of 28. He is bred to be a turf/synthetic horse and his speed figures in general haven’t been very high.
Pedigree --- Despite the fact that his pedigree says turf, it should be able to take him a mile and a quarter. His sire, Kitten's Joy, could go a mile and a half on the turf.

9. Make Music for Me
Birthdate - March 4th
Sire - Bernstein (Storm Cat)
Dam - Miss Cheers (Carson City)
Owner - Ellen and Peter O Johnson
Trainer - Alexis Barba
Jockey - Joel Rosario
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 6th
Pros - Solid two year old foundation, decent pedigree, and has been training nicely.
Cons - Finished sixth in his last race, speed figures aren't very high, and has never started on dirt. His best race came earlier this year on turf. He doesn't seem to be quite as good as some of the other horses in this race.
Pedigree --- Not terrible, but a bit questionable for a mile and a quarter. It should get him there.

10. Paddy O'Prado
Birthdate - February 15th
Sire - El Prado (By Sadler Wells)
Dam - Fun House (Prized)
Owner - Donegal Racing
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Kent Desormeaux
Last Race - Blue Gras Stakes, finished 2nd
Pros - Ran a 1:45 2/5 mile and an eighth on turf earlier this year, and has an excellent pedigree. Trainer Dale Romans is an expert at Churchill Downs and Kent Desormeaux has won three Derbies already.
Cons - In his only start on dirt, on a sloppy track sealed track at Churchill Downs, he ran seventh of eleven, beaten eleven and a half lengths by Thiskyhasnolimit. Earned a 46 Beyer speed figure for that effort. In the Blue Grass, he had nothing left to hold of Stately Victor. It appeared as though he was tiring at the finish.
Pedigree --- With a pedigree like his, he should be versatile. His sire, El Prado, has sired grade I winners on dirt, turf, and synthetic tracks. His broodmare sire, Prized, won the 1989 Breeders' Cup Turf, but also defeated 1989 Horse of the Year Sunday Silence in the grade I Swaps Stakes on dirt. Paddy O'Prado should be able to get the distance.

11. Devil May Care
Birthdate - May 7th
Sire - Malibu Moon (A.P. Indy)
Dam - Kelli's Ransom (Red Ransom)
Owner - Glencrest Farm LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - John Velazquez
Last Race - Bonnie Miss Stakes, finished 1st
Pros - She's run a mile and an eighth faster than Ice Box did in the Florida Derby while racing on the same track and on the same day as he. She has the co-highest Beyer speed figure of any horse in the race, and will be wearing blinkers for the first time.
Cons - She is a filly, and only three fillies have won the Kentucky Derby, she has been drifting out in her stretch runs, and has never faced colts. She is also fairly inconsistent.
Pedigree --- Questionable at a mile and a quarter. Her sire, Malibu Moon, has yet to sire a good distance horse, but at least her grandsire A.P. Indy has.

12. Conveyance
Birthdate - February 28th
Sire - Indian Charlie (In Excess)
Dam - Emptythehill (By Holy Bull)
Owner - Zabeel Racing International
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Martin Garcia
Last Race - Sunland Derby, finished 2nd
Pros - He is probably the fastest horse in the race, and he has defeated some of the top contenders here. He has been extremely consistent, and may just have enough stamina to wire the race. He has been training nicely, and is trained by Bob Baffert. Comes into the Derby off of a five week layoff.
Cons - Probably doesn't have the stamina to do it, if he gets into a speed dual with Line of David or Sidney's Candy it could be disastrous, his pedigree doesn't say a mile and a quarter, and he had nothing left in the Sunland Derby despite moderate fractions.
Pedigree --- Questionable at a mile and a quarter. His sire, Indian Charlie, was more of a mile and an eighth horse and his best foals have been about the same. His broodmare sire, Holy Bull, could go a mile and a quarter but it wasn't his best distance. But he did go on to sire 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, so I would say that Conveyance's pedigree has just enough stamina to get him a mile and a quarter. But no further.

13. Jackson Bend
Birthdate - February 11th
Sire - Hear No Evil
Dam - Sexy Stockings
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta and Fred J. Brei
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Mike Smith
Last Race - Wood Memorial, finished 2nd
Pros - Has earned a Beyer speed figure of 100, he has been unbelievably consistent, he has never run worse than second, and he never gives up. His trainer Nick Zito has won two Kentucky Derbies.
Cons - Has severe stamina questions.
Pedigree --- Questionable at a mile and a quarter. His sire, Hear No Evil, could barely go a mile and a sixteenth. But his broodmare sire, Tabasco Cat, was a Preakness/Belmont winner. He might go ten furlongs, and he might not.

14. Mission Impazible
Birthdate - March 2nd
Sire - Unbridled's Song (By Unbridled)
Dam - La Pez (By Hold Your Peace)
Owner - Twin Creeks Racing Stable LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Rajiv Maragh
Last Race - Louisiana Derby, finished 1st
Pros - Has been improving in every race, seems to have excellent stamina, has been training extremely well in the slop at Churchill Downs, and comes into the Derby off of a five week layoff.
Cons - His sire, Unbridled's Song, has yet to sire a good distance horse, beat a supposedly weak field in the Lousiana Derby, and his speed figures haven't been very high.
Pedigree --- Like a said above, his sire Unbridled's Song hasn't sire a distance horse yet. His pedigree is perhaps a little questionable at a mile and a quarter, but it should get him there.

15. Discreetly Mine
Birthdate - March 30th
Sire - Mineshaft (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Pretty Discreet (By Private Account)
Owner - E Paul Robsham Stable LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Javier Castellano
Last Race - Louisiana Derby, finished 4th
Pros - Okay pedigree, has been facing some fairly decent horses, raced five times as a two year old.
Cons - Doesn't seem to have much stamina, simply could not hang on in the Louisiana Derby despite setting slow fractions, has to break from gate fifteen, and his speed figures haven't been very high.
Pedigree --- Fairly good, but his sire Mineshaft has yet to get a grade I winner or a horse who could go a mile and a quarter. Otherwise okay.

16. Awesome Act
Birthdate - April 17th
Sire - Awesome Again (By Deputy Minister)
Dam - Houdini's Honey (By Mr. Prospector)
Owner - Vinery Stable LLC and Mrs. Susan Roy
Trainer - Jeremy Noseda
Jockey - Julien Leparoux
Last Race - Wood Memorial, finished 3rd
Pros - Very impressive in the Gotham Stakes, excellent pedigree, good turn of foot, and he had plenty of excuses in the Wood Memorial.
Cons - Was nowhere near top class in Europe as a juvenile, beat no one of Triple Crown ability in the Gotham, and needs a perfect trip to throw in his run. Post sixteen isn't great.
Pedigree --- Excellent. It will get him the Derby distance.

17. Dublin
Birthdate - April 4th
Sire - Afleet Alex (By Northern Afleet)
Dam - Classy Mirage (By Storm Bird)
Owner - Robert C. Baker and William L. Mack
Trainer - D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey - Terry Thompson
Last Race - Arkansas Derby, finished 3rd
Pros - Very consistent, trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won four Derbies, he always puts in a good run, he can sustain it a long way, and he has an excellent two year old foundation.
Cons - Hasn't won a race since last September, his run always seems to fall a bit short, he didn't close very fast in the Arkansas Derby. Post seventeen has never had a Derby winner.
Pedigree --- Excellent, classic pedigree. Of all the pedigrees of all the Derby contenders, I like this one the best. It will get him a mile and a quarter, and probably beyond.

18. Backtalk
Birthdate - January 27th
Sire - Smarty Jones (By Elusive Quality)
Dam - Apasionata Sonata (Affirmed)
Owner - Gold Mark Farm LLC
Trainer - Thomas Amoss
Jockey - Miguel Mena
Last Race - Illinois Derby, finished 3rd
Pros - Solid two year old foundation, has won on a sloppy, sealed track, had his excuses for running third in the Illinois Derby.
Cons - Poor speed figures, was well beaten in the Illinois Derby, hasn't faced very tough competition, and when he does, he is always well beaten. Post eighteen is not good.
Pedigree --- Not bad at all, perhaps a little short on stamina, but not too much. Sire Smarty Jones won the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness while running second in the Belmont, while broodmare sire Affirmed was the last horse to sweep the Triple Crown.

19. Homeboykris
Birthdate - February 13th
Sire - Roman Ruler (By Fusaichi Pegasus)
Dam - One Last Salute (Salutely)
Owner - Lazzinnaro, Bulger, Mandato, Torre, Bello, Teel, Borislow and Sallusto
Trainer - Richard Dutrow
Jockey - Ramon Dominguez
Last Race - Allowance race at Gulfstream Park, finished 2nd
Pros - Solid two year old foundation, won the Grade I Champagne Stakes defeating Discreetly Mine, Super Saver, and Dublin. He is trained by Rick Dutrow, who won the 2008 Kentucky Derby and Preakness with Big Brown.
Cons - Has done nothing of note since winning the Champagne Stakes, is unproven at two turns, may not care for off tracks, poor speed figures. Post nineteen has never had a Derby winner.
Pedigree --- May or may not get him a mile and a quarter. His sire, Roman Ruler, could go no further than nine furlongs. But his grandsire, Fusaichi Pegasus, won the 2000 Kentucky Derby.

20. Sidney's Candy
Birthdate - January 27th
Sire - Candy Ride (By Ride the Rails)
Dam - Fair Exchange (By Storm Cat)
Owner - Sid and Jenny Craig Trust
Trainer - John Sadler
Jockey - Joseph Talamo
Last Race - Santa Anita Derby, finished 1st
Pros - He is undefeated this year, has earned a Beyer of 100, he has excellent speed, he comes home fast, and he defeated Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby.
Cons - He has never raced outside of California, he has never raced on a dirt track, he stumbles out of the gate rather frequently, he has to break from gate twenty, and he has yet to be really pushed when on the lead.
Pedigree --- Excellent. It should carry him a mile and a quarter. His sire, Candy Ride, broke the track record at Del Mar for a mile and a quarter in the grade I Pacific Classic, getting the distance in 1:59 flat, and ran a 1:31 flat mile in Argentina. His broodmare sire is Storm Cat, who foals have always been able to get a mile and a quarter.

And so that completes my analysis of their basic statistics. Now I've just got to take this information and turn it into some sort of format that can predict the winner. Actually, I might do better if I just draw a name out of a hat. . .

Come to think of it, I'll do that. As well as listing my own personal picks, I'll draw the order of finish out of a hat.

Here are the random picks. . .

1 Line of David
2 American Lion
3 Stately Victor
4 Sidney's Candy
5 Paddy O'Prado
6 Mission Impazible
7 Dublin
8 Homeboykris
9 Devil May Care
10 Backtalk
11 Noble's Promise
12 Ice Box
13 Super Saver
14 Discreetly Mine
15 Dean's Kitten
16 Jackson Bend
17 Awesome Act
18 Make Music for Me
19 Conveyance
20 Lookin at Lucky

Wow. . . obviously the hat has something against Bob Baffert's horses. :-) And four of the top five finishers are front runners. Apparently the hat feels there is a track bias or something. . .

Now the real analyzing begins.

I'm going to list several different lists, as well as several unusual patterns, before actually listing my picks.

To begin, I'm going to look at Beyer speed figures. If every run ran the same Beyer speed figure that they did in their last race, here is what the order of finish would look like:

1 Devil May Care (DH with Sidney's Candy)
2 Sidney's Candy (DH)
3 Ice Box
4 Super Saver (DH with Line of David and American Lion)
5 Line of David (DH)
6 American Lion (DH)
7 Dublin
8 Conveyance
9 Stately Victor (DH with Mission Impazoble)
10 Mission Impazible (DH)
11 Dean's Kitten (DH with Jackson Bend and Awesome Act)
12 Jackson Bend (DH)
13 Awesome Act (DH)
14 Discreetly Mine
15 Noble's Promise
16 Lookin at Lucky
17 Homeboykris
18 Paddy O'Prado
19 Make Music for Me
20 Backtalk

I don't think there are going to be that many dead heats. . .

But let's take a closer look at the speed figures. Suppose we take Lookin at Lucky's speed figures for every race and average them out. Then we do this for every other horse. The horses with the highest average number would win. Let's see what happens when we do that.

1 Conveyance
2 Awesome Act
3 Sidney's Candy
4 Super Saver
5 American Lion
6 Lookin at Lucky
7 Noble's Promise
8 Discreetly Mine
9 Homboykris
10 Jackson Bend
11 Mission Impazible
12 Dublin
13 Backtalk
14 Devil May Care
15 Line of David
16 Make Music for Me
17 Stately Victor
18 Paddy O'Prado
19 Dean's Kitten
20 Ice Box

Once again, this isn't really an accurate measurement of the horses’ abilities. I highly doubt that Ice Box is going to finish last.

Now, I'm almost ready to make my picks. But first, I'm going to rattle off a couple of unusual factors which always seem to pop up in the Kentucky Derby. Maybe they will hold true for this year's edition too.

1. Over the past nine years, four Derby winners have come from their sire's first crop.
If this is to hold true again, Stately Victor, Dean's Kitten, Jackson Bend, Dublin, or Homeboykris would win.

2. Over the past ten years, seven trainers have won the Kentucky Derby on their first attempt.

If this is to hold true again, then Line of David, Stately Victor, Dean's Kitten, Make Music for Me, or Sidney's Candy would win.

And that is all. It is now time for my picks.
Here they are. . .

OFFICIAL PICKS

1 Dublin
2 Lookin at Lucky
3 Super Saver
4 Conveyance
5 Mission Impazible
6 American Lion
7 Sidney's Candy
8 Ice Box
9 Awesome Act
10 Stately Victor
11 Jackson Bend
12 Homeboykris
13 Devil May Care
14 Make Music for Me
15 Backtalk
16 Paddy O'Prado
17 Noble's Promise
18 Line of David
19 Dean's Kitten
20 Discreetly Mine

Okay. . . it is unusual. But here are my thoughts. . .

Dublin just keeps on hitting the board. Time after time after time he finishes just behind the winners. In the Arkansas Derby, he came within a half length of winning. In the Rebel, he was beaten three lengths by Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise after a horrible trip. In the Southwest Stakes, despite a bad break, he rallied to finish second, three quarters of a length behind Conveyance. I am positive that he can handle the mile and a quarter, the slop, and everything. The long stretch run should also help him. Gate seventeen isn't great, but it's not as bad as twenty.

Then there is Lookin at Lucky. He has never failed to hit the board and I feel that he will pull it off again today. Yes, he has to break from gate one, and he could very well run into traffic, but I'm going to assume that he gets a clean trip.

With Super Saver, I'm not sure. He was beaten a neck in the Arkansas Derby, and is proven over a sloppy sealed track, but he may not be able to get the distance. But with Calvin Borel as a rider, he should be able to hit the board.

As for Conveyance, I think that he can go wire-to-wire. He is to some extent overlooked, and I think that he has the perfect post position to do it. He has so much early speed that he guarantees himself a good trip.

Mission Impazible should love the slop. He has been training beautifully at Churchill Downs and should be able to run a great race and get a good trip.

American Lion should get a perfect trip from gate seven, and Ice Box should come rallying late. Awesome Act is capable of winning, but I just don't know if he is going to get the right trip.

Jackson Bend never gives up, Homeboykris has hidden talent, Devil May Care may not be good enough, Sidney's Candy has to overcome gat twenty, Stately Victor may not care for dirt, Make Music for Me should pass tiring rivals, Backtalk may not be good enough, Paddy O'Prado doesn't have the stamina, Noble's Promise will get a poor trip, Line of David will hate the track, Dean's Kitten may not be good enough, and Discreetly Mine may not be good enough.

Now with that said, I'm going to put up one more list. The following is my "gut feeling" list, where I throw out what my brain tells me and go with what my heart tells me to do.

GUT FEELING PICKS

1 Dublin
2 Super Saver
3 Mission Impazible
4 Lookin at Lucky
5 American Lion
6 Conveyance
7 Ice Box
8 Jackson Bend
9 Homeboykris
10 Make Music for Me
11 Dean's Kitten
12 Devil May Care
13 Awesome Act
14 Sidney's Candy
15 Backtalk
16 Paddy O'Prado
17 Stately Victor
18 Noble's Promise
19 Line of David
20 Discreetly Mine

And now I have just one last thing to say. Here is the imaginary race call, if my official picks were to come home in that order:

"And they’re off, in the Kentucky Derby! Conveyance got off to a sharp start and from the far outside here comes Sidney's Candy. Paddy O'Prado racing into contention while Line of David comes up on the rail to grab second. Lookin at Lucky is down along the rail, the filly Devil May Care is in between horses in sixth. American Lion is right in behind the leaders and Jackson Bend is on the far outside. By us for the first time and it's Conveyance with a half length lead over Line of David. American Lion is right there on the outside with Sidney's Candy in the four path racing fourth. American Lion is on the rail about three lengths off the lead with Jackson Bend on the outside. In to the first turn they go! The filly Devil May Care is right behind Jackson Bend in seventh, with Paddy O'Prado back in eighth. Noble's Promise is in among horses racing in ninth. Lookin at Lucky is tenth. Mission Impazible is on the outside in eleventh. Discreetly Mine is twelve. Awesome Act is thirteenth. Dean's Kitten in fourteenth. Lookin at Lucky, is fifteen early on! Super Saver is sixteenth! And then it's Dublin racing eighteenth, Homeboykris in nineteenth, and Ice Box in last of twenty! The opening half mile went in a blazing forty-six seconds flat!"

"They're on to the backstretch now and it's still Conveyance with a narrow lead. Line of David is being pushed to continue. American Lion is right behind them on the rail with Sidney's Candy fighting Joe Talamo! Sidney's Candy is making an early move! Jackson Bend is on the outside! Mission Impazible is inching closer, and there goes Lookin at Lucky! Lookin at Lucky with a bold move along the rail as they approach the final turn! Lookin at Lucky switches to the outside but he's going to have to go five or six wide! Devil May Care is rallying in between horses! Joe Talamo is asking Sidney's Candy for more but Sidney's Candy isn't picking it up! On the outside Dublin is beginning a rally, but he's going to have to swing seven or eight wide! Lookin at Lucky is continuing his bold move and Lookin at Lucky has taken the lead! Conveyance trying to stay with him! Mission Impazible is following Lookin at Lucky and American Lion is on the rail looking for racing room! And here comes Super Saver! Calvin Borel and Super Saver coming on the rail as the field turns for home! Lookin at Lucky still holds the lead but he isn't drawing away! Mission Impazible is right behind him battling with Conveyance! And Dublin is grinding past horses on the outside! Lookin at Lucky leads to the eighth pole! Super Saver is creeping up on the inside! Calvin Borel is imploring him to go on! But here comes Dublin! Down to the final sixteenth! Lookin at Lucky has unwavering courage! Super Saver is a stubborn foe! And Dublin is cutting them both down with every stride! Here's the wire! . . . Dublin gets up to win it by a neck! Welcome back Wayne Lukas!"

And that is everything I have to say. I have made my picks, and now it's time to go enjoy the races. Remember, starting at about a half hour before the Kentucky Derby is run, I will be live on my blog posting as events occur. I will have the top three finishers up as soon as the race is over. (Unless Dublin wins, and then it might take me a minute to calm down!)

So that's it. In less than five hours the winner of the 136th Kentucky Derby winner will be history. And one horse will have a chance at Triple Crown glory. Enjoy the Kentucky Derby everyone!

-Keelerman

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