Just one week ago, two new contenders for the Triple Crown emerged on to the scene, with Winslow Homer and Ron the Greek both emerging victorious from two different grade III prep races while defeating highly regarded colts in the process.
Now, on January 30th, even though there are no large stakes races for three year old colts, there are still several fascinating races today and tomorrow that could have a big impact on the Triple Crown Trail.
The big one that I am most looking forward to is an allowance race on the 31st, down at Gulfstream Park. The big horse here is Pulsion, a son of Include, whom I had actually selected to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year. I felt certain that someone would upset favored Lookin at Lucky. Pulsion himself had finished a nice, closing second to Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes just prior to the Breeders' Cup. In the end, someone did upset Lucky, but it was not Pulsion, who finished eleventh. However, he emerged from the race with a large cut and had to be taken out of training for several weeks. And so for the past several months, I have been watching the entries for races in California, assuming that Pulsion would find a race out there somewhere. So imagine my surprise when I see that he has been in Florida for some time, aiming for the Fountain of Youth!
So anyway, the allowance race is a mile and an eighth, two turns, although the race will start very, very close to the first turn. Although Pulsion has never run on dirt, he did work six furlongs in 1:12 flat at Gulfstream, so that seems to say he'll like it okay. His main contenders appear to be Drosselmeyer, a son of Distorted Humor, who broke his maiden by six lengths in a one mile race at Churchill Downs. If he is in the same class as Pulsion, no one knows. We will find out on the 31st.
Also in the race are Guys Reward and Best Actor. Guys Reward is coming off a fast closing fifth in a stakes race on the turf, and prior to that he ran second to Maximus Ruler in a one mile allowance race at Churchill Downs. Maximus Ruler just recently finished second to Ron the Greek in the LeComte Stakes, so Guys Reward seems ready to run a big one. As for Best Actor, he won a maiden race at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. A son of Rock Hard Ten, he is now proven on this track, but he's going to have to really step up to take on the competition here.
The second race that will bear watching is a six furlong allowance race, also at Gulfstream Park, on Saturday. The main entry I'm looking at here is Afleet Express, a son of Afleet Alex who caught my attention when he broke his maiden first time out on December 5th in a six furlong maiden race at Aqueduct. I thought to myself, "Not a terrible time, I like his sire, (Afleet Alex) and boy do I like his name!"
And so I've followed him to some extent since then. After working five furlongs in :59 2/5, he seems ready to go. He is already proven in the mud, so even if a hurricane was to suddenly appear over Gulfstream Park and drop thousands of gallons of water on to the track, he should be fine.
The main challenger for Afleet Express appears to be General Maximus, who has made only one start, and that was in July of last year. Still, he won that race by four lengths, going the five furlongs in :57 2/5, and earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. So if he can lay off that long and still run a top race, he could very well claim the victory.
Also in Saturday's race is Family Holiday, third in an allowance race last time out, Peace at Dawn, fourth in that same race, Windy City Cat, who has won his only race so far, at Hawthorne, and Octavo, who has been fairly consistent. Any one of these horses appears capable of pulling off the win. Family Holiday will wear blinkers, which he did not wear in his last race.
Another race on Saturday's card is a one mile maiden race. Although I know next to nothing about the field, I think that The Director looks really good here and should run huge. Perhaps the Fountain of Youth is in his bright future.
And now we come to Sunday's Forward Gal Stakes, a grade II race at Gulfstream Park for three year old fillies. The distance is seven furlongs, and the big name here is She Be Wild, the Champion 2yo Filly of 2009 and winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. The biggest question with her is whether she can translate her fine synthetic form to dirt, a surface she has never tried before. She has been working well however, going four furlongs in :47 1/5 at Gulfstream Park, Julien Leparoux, who rode her for the first time in the Breeders' Cup, will ride her again here.
Still, as I examine the race, I seem to smell an upset. She Be Wild will be carrying four to six pounds more than her twelve other rivals, and in a field that large, there is always the possibility of getting stuck in traffic, or getting caught in a speed dual, or any of the other factors that can change the outcome of any race.
Those who have the best chance of upsetting She Be Wild include Richiegirlgonewild, who just recently upset the Old Hat Stakes at this same track, wiring the field at odds of 31-1. Still, the Old Hat Stakes was at six furlongs, and the extra furlong in the Forward Gal Stakes may just catch up to her, as the possibility of her getting a clear lead to slow the pace with seems very unlikely.
Others who have a shot at the race include Joanie's Catch, Criolla Bonita, Romantic Hideaway, Touching Beauty, Cascading, Ailalea, Si Senora, Carphonic, Sister Resistor, Bickersons, and Liam's Dream. Of those, Cascading seems to have some good early speed, as does Bickersons. Ailalea appears to have an excellent chance at this race. She has already won a grade III stakes at Aqueduct going a mile, and with the amount of speed there seems to be in this race, her stretch running style could very well get her there.
Of course, if I was to pick a longshot who seems to have a better than average chance, I would go with Bickersons. She seems to have some ability, despite her tenth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.
So, my final thoughts are that the race appears to be wide open, but I like that chances of She Be Wild, Bickersons, Richiegirlgonewild, and Ailalea. I think that one of those will win the race.
posted by Keelerman
Saturday, January 30, 2010
Sunday, January 24, 2010
POST RACE ---- THE HOLY BULL STAKES (gr. III)
January 24th, 2010
Well, things didn't quite go the way I thought they would in the Holy Bull. First, I shall post a list of the actual results, followed by the order I believed they would finish. Then I will pour over the details and find out what happened and why.
Actual Results
1 Winslow Homer
2 Jackson Bend
3 William's Kitten
4 Thank U Philippe
5 Homeboykris
6 Aikenite
7 Wild Lime
8 Litigation Risk
9 Piscitelli
My Selections
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Piscitelli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
So as I compare the two lists, I see that I was very wrong about Thank U Philippe, who ran a much better race than I expected him to. The exact opposite happened with Piscitelli, who ran much poorer than I thought he would. Perhaps I paid a little too much attention to his fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But now I must go into the details of every horse in the race and find out exactly what happened.
1 Winslow Homer
I was very excited to see that he came through with the win, even if only by three-quarters of a length. Racing far back early, he gradually moved up as they approached the final turn, split Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, and just kept fighting off Jackson Bend, who had plenty of time to wear him down but just couldn't get to him. According to his trainer, Winslow Homer should be better in two turn races than in one turn races, and the longer he goes, the better. However, his pedigree does raise a question. He is by Unbridled's Song, a fine sire, but it seems like his foals aren't quite up to the classic distances. But this could very well mean nothing, as the same things were said about Bold Ruler back in the sixties. It seemed as though he just couldn't get a horse who could win at the classic distances, until he sired Secretariat. So I'm greatly looking forward to seeing Winslow Homer race again, hopefully in the nine furlong Fountain of Youth, where he will likely take on Buddy's Saint.
2 Jackson Bend
Just as I had worried, Jackson Bend raced towards the lead but was caught wide on the turn. He raced rather close to the rather quick fractions set by Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, made his move, but just couldn't get to the winner, even though he had the length of the stretch to cut him down. This does raise questions as to whether he can get the classic distances, but it was still a fine race. He should improve from here. Perhaps he will contest the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 20th. If Winslow Homer, Buddy's Saint, and Super Saver all come out for that race as well, it could very well be the most exciting Triple Crown prep race of the year.
3 William's Kitten
Ran the race I thought he would, laying back early and coming late, but his run just wasn't what it needed to be. He came into the homestretch something like five or six wide, so I'm still left wondering whether he can handle turns or not. He doesn't seem to be able to hug them real well. Still, the race was a good one, although it seems to say again that he is just below the best of his crop at this time. Of course, Summer Bird, winner of last year's Belmont Stakes and the Eclipse Award for Champion 3yo Male wasn't at the top of his crop this early either. In fact, I don't believe Summer Bird had even started at this point last year. So William's Kitten has a lot of time to make up the ground, and perhaps he could be a legitimate Triple Crown horse in just a few months.
4 Thank U Philippe
Actually ran a really nice race, much better than I expected. He set the pace with Homeboykris and just couldn't quite sustain it. Still, the pace he set was very fast, and he is a horse that I will look forward to seeing race again. If he was to ship down to Louisiana or Arkansas, I believe that he would have an excellent chance at one the big preps down there.
5 Homeboykris
He ran a very similar race to the one Thank U Philippe ran, but somehow I'm just not as impressed with his performance. His sire, Roman Ruler, appears to be an excellent sire so far, but never did get ten furlongs. He attempted to win the 2005 Travers Stakes, but could do no better than third behind Flower Alley and Bellamy Road. Homeboykris just seems to be one of those horses who upset a grade I stakes race and fail to do it again. Of course, seeing the he did run some pretty good fractions, he could definitely turn into a fine sprinter.
6 Aikenite
He ran like he wasn't ready for the race. He just hung around about mid pack and failed to fire. Although he showed lots of potential as a two year old, he just doesn't seem to be up to running against the best at this point in his career. He could very well turn into a fine stakes horse. He just doesn't strike me as a Triple Crown contender.
7 Wild Lime
Ah, the mystery horse, the one I knew nothing about. It seems as though I didn't need to know about him, as he ran only slightly better than I though he would, finishing seventh. I had him picked to finish eighth. If I recall, he ran a similar race to the one Aikenite ran, just hovering around in midpack and failing to put in a run.
8 Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, Alan Garcia was unable to pull off a Da'Tara ride. I don't believe Litigation Risk put in any run at all. He appears to be one of those horses who tried and failed along the Triple Crown trail.
9 Piscitelli
I was perhaps most wrong about this colt, as I had him pegged to run sixth, which he most certainly did not. I believe that I was influenced by his nice run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 50-1. Although on the surface it appears that he did not run the race he did in the Breeders' Cup, when I examined both races closer, I realized that perhaps he ran an even better race today than he did in the Juvenile. I say this mainly because I went and examined the fractions of both races. It appears that they went three-quarters of a mile just over three seconds faster in the Holy Bull than they did in the Juvenile. This supposedly equates to something like fifteen lengths. Therefore, Piscitelli ran at least ten lengths faster, maybe more than that, in the Holy Bull than in the Breeders' Cup, and as would be expected, was a bit weary by the time they got to the homestretch. So I am greatly looking forward to his next race. Perhaps he will get an easier pace next time around. Still, at this point in the year, Piscitelli does not seem like a Triple Crown horse. That may change, but it doesn't look likely.
And so altogether, the Holy Bull Stakes was a very fascinating race, and several questions were answered. However, it is only January, and there are still 96 days until the first of the Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby. Between now and then, there will be many more prep races, and many more horses will rise up to the challenge of a stakes race, just like Winslow Homer, and defeat many more highly regarded horses. So many things will change, but for now, it appears than Winslow Homer could be just a bit better than anybody though he was.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
Well, things didn't quite go the way I thought they would in the Holy Bull. First, I shall post a list of the actual results, followed by the order I believed they would finish. Then I will pour over the details and find out what happened and why.
Actual Results
1 Winslow Homer
2 Jackson Bend
3 William's Kitten
4 Thank U Philippe
5 Homeboykris
6 Aikenite
7 Wild Lime
8 Litigation Risk
9 Piscitelli
My Selections
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Piscitelli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
So as I compare the two lists, I see that I was very wrong about Thank U Philippe, who ran a much better race than I expected him to. The exact opposite happened with Piscitelli, who ran much poorer than I thought he would. Perhaps I paid a little too much attention to his fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But now I must go into the details of every horse in the race and find out exactly what happened.
1 Winslow Homer
I was very excited to see that he came through with the win, even if only by three-quarters of a length. Racing far back early, he gradually moved up as they approached the final turn, split Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, and just kept fighting off Jackson Bend, who had plenty of time to wear him down but just couldn't get to him. According to his trainer, Winslow Homer should be better in two turn races than in one turn races, and the longer he goes, the better. However, his pedigree does raise a question. He is by Unbridled's Song, a fine sire, but it seems like his foals aren't quite up to the classic distances. But this could very well mean nothing, as the same things were said about Bold Ruler back in the sixties. It seemed as though he just couldn't get a horse who could win at the classic distances, until he sired Secretariat. So I'm greatly looking forward to seeing Winslow Homer race again, hopefully in the nine furlong Fountain of Youth, where he will likely take on Buddy's Saint.
2 Jackson Bend
Just as I had worried, Jackson Bend raced towards the lead but was caught wide on the turn. He raced rather close to the rather quick fractions set by Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, made his move, but just couldn't get to the winner, even though he had the length of the stretch to cut him down. This does raise questions as to whether he can get the classic distances, but it was still a fine race. He should improve from here. Perhaps he will contest the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 20th. If Winslow Homer, Buddy's Saint, and Super Saver all come out for that race as well, it could very well be the most exciting Triple Crown prep race of the year.
3 William's Kitten
Ran the race I thought he would, laying back early and coming late, but his run just wasn't what it needed to be. He came into the homestretch something like five or six wide, so I'm still left wondering whether he can handle turns or not. He doesn't seem to be able to hug them real well. Still, the race was a good one, although it seems to say again that he is just below the best of his crop at this time. Of course, Summer Bird, winner of last year's Belmont Stakes and the Eclipse Award for Champion 3yo Male wasn't at the top of his crop this early either. In fact, I don't believe Summer Bird had even started at this point last year. So William's Kitten has a lot of time to make up the ground, and perhaps he could be a legitimate Triple Crown horse in just a few months.
4 Thank U Philippe
Actually ran a really nice race, much better than I expected. He set the pace with Homeboykris and just couldn't quite sustain it. Still, the pace he set was very fast, and he is a horse that I will look forward to seeing race again. If he was to ship down to Louisiana or Arkansas, I believe that he would have an excellent chance at one the big preps down there.
5 Homeboykris
He ran a very similar race to the one Thank U Philippe ran, but somehow I'm just not as impressed with his performance. His sire, Roman Ruler, appears to be an excellent sire so far, but never did get ten furlongs. He attempted to win the 2005 Travers Stakes, but could do no better than third behind Flower Alley and Bellamy Road. Homeboykris just seems to be one of those horses who upset a grade I stakes race and fail to do it again. Of course, seeing the he did run some pretty good fractions, he could definitely turn into a fine sprinter.
6 Aikenite
He ran like he wasn't ready for the race. He just hung around about mid pack and failed to fire. Although he showed lots of potential as a two year old, he just doesn't seem to be up to running against the best at this point in his career. He could very well turn into a fine stakes horse. He just doesn't strike me as a Triple Crown contender.
7 Wild Lime
Ah, the mystery horse, the one I knew nothing about. It seems as though I didn't need to know about him, as he ran only slightly better than I though he would, finishing seventh. I had him picked to finish eighth. If I recall, he ran a similar race to the one Aikenite ran, just hovering around in midpack and failing to put in a run.
8 Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, Alan Garcia was unable to pull off a Da'Tara ride. I don't believe Litigation Risk put in any run at all. He appears to be one of those horses who tried and failed along the Triple Crown trail.
9 Piscitelli
I was perhaps most wrong about this colt, as I had him pegged to run sixth, which he most certainly did not. I believe that I was influenced by his nice run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 50-1. Although on the surface it appears that he did not run the race he did in the Breeders' Cup, when I examined both races closer, I realized that perhaps he ran an even better race today than he did in the Juvenile. I say this mainly because I went and examined the fractions of both races. It appears that they went three-quarters of a mile just over three seconds faster in the Holy Bull than they did in the Juvenile. This supposedly equates to something like fifteen lengths. Therefore, Piscitelli ran at least ten lengths faster, maybe more than that, in the Holy Bull than in the Breeders' Cup, and as would be expected, was a bit weary by the time they got to the homestretch. So I am greatly looking forward to his next race. Perhaps he will get an easier pace next time around. Still, at this point in the year, Piscitelli does not seem like a Triple Crown horse. That may change, but it doesn't look likely.
And so altogether, the Holy Bull Stakes was a very fascinating race, and several questions were answered. However, it is only January, and there are still 96 days until the first of the Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby. Between now and then, there will be many more prep races, and many more horses will rise up to the challenge of a stakes race, just like Winslow Homer, and defeat many more highly regarded horses. So many things will change, but for now, it appears than Winslow Homer could be just a bit better than anybody though he was.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
Friday, January 22, 2010
THE TWENTY, as of January 22nd, 2010
1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
Has yet to do anything wrong, just keeps moving along and doing what is asked of him.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
I really like the addition of blinkers. I can't wait for his next race. I would love to see him start in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, or even the San Vincente Stakes, but if I recall, it's the San Felipe Stakes in March that will be next.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
I can't see him coming out for a race until the Fountain of Youth. Some have said that he needs to learn to rate off the pace, but I see this as a good thing; if he is truly good enough it won't matter.
4. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
If he fires in the Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday, he'll move up a spot. If he loses, then he's going to move down. Worked a bullet five furlongs in :59.30 at Palm Meadows on January 16th. He seems to be ready.
5. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I'm just hoping that he's over his problems and can come back successfully. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said that this is the horse that will make him famous. Let's hope he's right. The Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on February 15th seems to be just right for him.
6. DRYFLY
Just got moved up off of his win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. He was ridden by Calvin Borel. Oaklawn Park seems to be a hot place to train good horses, turning out Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Gayego, and Papa Clem since 2004.
7. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
Currently, he's made three starts, and has won a grade III race during which he raced very greenly. I would like to see him prep in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, or maybe even ship east and try something out here. I don't really care as long as he starts in February.
8. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
Still waiting for news on this one, I would like to see him race on the synthetics soon. If he was to ship east and try something on real dirt, he could shoot way up the list. Love his pedigree, seems to say stamina, bold and underlined.
9. CONVEYANCE Bob Baffert
Got his big test in the San Rafael Stakes on the 16th, and passed it with flying colors. Now how about a nice layoff leading up to the Sham Stakes, and then another nice gap leading up to the Santa Anita Derby? Of course, this would mean he would meet Lookin' At Lucky, so maybe Bob Baffert will ship Conveyance out east, which would be great.
10. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
Successfully made her three year old debut, winning the rained off the turf Sweetest Chant Stakes down at Gulfstream Park. So now she's proven in the slop. I just have this feeling that she could be something special.
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Hopefully, he'll stick to the Louisiana route, maybe ship to Fair Grounds if he hasn't already, and try for the Louisiana Derby. I have got to find out what he's doing right now.
12. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
This appears to be an extremely courageous colt. He finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after leading with only a sixteenth-of-a-mile left to be run. He was only beaten a length. That was followed by a runner up performance in the CashCall Futurity, so it seems that he can run well. Needs to make his three year old debut soon, maybe the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
13. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed bin Suroor
The upset winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is currently out in Dubai, awaiting his three year old debut at the new Meydan race course. Unfortunately, the new track is synthetic, so we won't have any idea how he runs on dirt until the Derby, if he does get there.
14. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
I'm fairly surprised that she did not get the Eclipse Award for Champion 2yo Filly. She'll have her chance this year, however. He win in the Starlet Stakes was incredible, and I'm looking for to seeing her in the Las Virgenes Stakes in February, should she start.
15. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
On this list just because of his maiden win back in early November. Very impressive, but he really needs to start again. Another horse that I need to learn more about.
16. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
Needs to run well in the Holy Bull stakes on Saturday. A third would be fine, but it would be much better if he ran a close second, or even managed to grab the victory. The latter would move him up many spots.
17. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister Steve Asmussen
Didn't quiet run the way I hoped in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Now he needs to prove that he can handle two turns, which he has failed to do so far. Maybe he will ship to Louisiana, or New York, somewhere where he could slowly build up to the Triple Crown.
18. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
No news on this one since his poor showing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, he came out of that race with a pretty good cut, so I'm sure he's being given some time off. Needs to stay in southern California and take on Lookin at Lucky again.
19. HOMEBOYKRIS Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
Totally didn't fire in the Remsen Stakes, trailing victorious Buddy's Saint by at least ten lengths, if not more. If he is to move up any, he needs to really run tomorrow in the Holy Bull. A victory over Jackson Bend would be huge.
20. D'FUNNYBONE D'Wildcat - Elbow, by Woodman Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
As good as he is from six to seven furlongs, he seems to be just to much of a sprinter to stretch out to the Triple Crown distances. Being beaten nearly thirty lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile while finishing last is a lot to blame on disliking synthetics.
NOTABLE OTHER HORSES
BACKTALK
CONNEMARA
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
AFLEET EXPRESS
FLY BY PHIL
A PLUS TOPPER
SPEEDY MON
OUTQUEST
LAUS DEO
STAY PUT
A LITTLE WARM
AIKENITE
LENTENOR
Among other notes, Brake Lights, who seemed to have an unlimited future after a very impressive maiden race at Aqueduct, has been injured and is off the Triple Crown Trail. A bone chip in his left front ankle is the culprit. And to top that off, Take Control, the first foal of Azeri, has injured himself as well. A shin problem is the issue here. Both incidents were very unfortunate, but hopefully, they will both return to good form and become classy stakes winners later in the year.
As for future racing, it appears that A Little Warm, winner of the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 9th, will aim for the February 20th Hutcheson Stakes. If he should win this, he could then wait another month for the Florida Derby. If he should win that, then he would have had the perfect Triple Crown Trail in my mind, slowly building up the distances. If he can go a mile-and-a-half, he could be the one to sweep the Triple Crown. But this is saying a lot, and the only thing to go on is his six furlong ungraded stakes win. But it's fun to think about.
Another little notice that’s sure be mentioned, 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, has a full brother named Letenor who broke his maiden in his third attempt on January 20th. He joins Barbaro, as well as Barbaro's other full brother, Nicanor, as a winner on turf. There has been talk about the Triple Crown, but for now, it sounds like Letenor will stick to the turf and perhaps try a stakes race somewhere.
And finally, the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds could quite possibly be a very important prep, as Friesian Fire won that race last year and ended up being the favorite for that year's Kentucky Derby. I won't dive into a deep analysis of the race, but glancing at the entries, Maximus Ruler looks good, as does Worldy and Citrus Kid. The name Rock Hard leaps out at me, and I suddenly can't help but think he'll run well.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
Has yet to do anything wrong, just keeps moving along and doing what is asked of him.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
I really like the addition of blinkers. I can't wait for his next race. I would love to see him start in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, or even the San Vincente Stakes, but if I recall, it's the San Felipe Stakes in March that will be next.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
I can't see him coming out for a race until the Fountain of Youth. Some have said that he needs to learn to rate off the pace, but I see this as a good thing; if he is truly good enough it won't matter.
4. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
If he fires in the Holy Bull Stakes on Saturday, he'll move up a spot. If he loses, then he's going to move down. Worked a bullet five furlongs in :59.30 at Palm Meadows on January 16th. He seems to be ready.
5. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
I'm just hoping that he's over his problems and can come back successfully. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas said that this is the horse that will make him famous. Let's hope he's right. The Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on February 15th seems to be just right for him.
6. DRYFLY
Just got moved up off of his win in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn. He was ridden by Calvin Borel. Oaklawn Park seems to be a hot place to train good horses, turning out Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, Gayego, and Papa Clem since 2004.
7. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
Currently, he's made three starts, and has won a grade III race during which he raced very greenly. I would like to see him prep in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, or maybe even ship east and try something out here. I don't really care as long as he starts in February.
8. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
Still waiting for news on this one, I would like to see him race on the synthetics soon. If he was to ship east and try something on real dirt, he could shoot way up the list. Love his pedigree, seems to say stamina, bold and underlined.
9. CONVEYANCE Bob Baffert
Got his big test in the San Rafael Stakes on the 16th, and passed it with flying colors. Now how about a nice layoff leading up to the Sham Stakes, and then another nice gap leading up to the Santa Anita Derby? Of course, this would mean he would meet Lookin' At Lucky, so maybe Bob Baffert will ship Conveyance out east, which would be great.
10. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
Successfully made her three year old debut, winning the rained off the turf Sweetest Chant Stakes down at Gulfstream Park. So now she's proven in the slop. I just have this feeling that she could be something special.
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Hopefully, he'll stick to the Louisiana route, maybe ship to Fair Grounds if he hasn't already, and try for the Louisiana Derby. I have got to find out what he's doing right now.
12. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
This appears to be an extremely courageous colt. He finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after leading with only a sixteenth-of-a-mile left to be run. He was only beaten a length. That was followed by a runner up performance in the CashCall Futurity, so it seems that he can run well. Needs to make his three year old debut soon, maybe the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
13. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed bin Suroor
The upset winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile is currently out in Dubai, awaiting his three year old debut at the new Meydan race course. Unfortunately, the new track is synthetic, so we won't have any idea how he runs on dirt until the Derby, if he does get there.
14. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mision - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
I'm fairly surprised that she did not get the Eclipse Award for Champion 2yo Filly. She'll have her chance this year, however. He win in the Starlet Stakes was incredible, and I'm looking for to seeing her in the Las Virgenes Stakes in February, should she start.
15. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
On this list just because of his maiden win back in early November. Very impressive, but he really needs to start again. Another horse that I need to learn more about.
16. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
Needs to run well in the Holy Bull stakes on Saturday. A third would be fine, but it would be much better if he ran a close second, or even managed to grab the victory. The latter would move him up many spots.
17. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister Steve Asmussen
Didn't quiet run the way I hoped in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Now he needs to prove that he can handle two turns, which he has failed to do so far. Maybe he will ship to Louisiana, or New York, somewhere where he could slowly build up to the Triple Crown.
18. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Parick L. Biancone
No news on this one since his poor showing in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, he came out of that race with a pretty good cut, so I'm sure he's being given some time off. Needs to stay in southern California and take on Lookin at Lucky again.
19. HOMEBOYKRIS Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
Totally didn't fire in the Remsen Stakes, trailing victorious Buddy's Saint by at least ten lengths, if not more. If he is to move up any, he needs to really run tomorrow in the Holy Bull. A victory over Jackson Bend would be huge.
20. D'FUNNYBONE D'Wildcat - Elbow, by Woodman Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
As good as he is from six to seven furlongs, he seems to be just to much of a sprinter to stretch out to the Triple Crown distances. Being beaten nearly thirty lengths in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile while finishing last is a lot to blame on disliking synthetics.
NOTABLE OTHER HORSES
BACKTALK
CONNEMARA
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME
AFLEET EXPRESS
FLY BY PHIL
A PLUS TOPPER
SPEEDY MON
OUTQUEST
LAUS DEO
STAY PUT
A LITTLE WARM
AIKENITE
LENTENOR
Among other notes, Brake Lights, who seemed to have an unlimited future after a very impressive maiden race at Aqueduct, has been injured and is off the Triple Crown Trail. A bone chip in his left front ankle is the culprit. And to top that off, Take Control, the first foal of Azeri, has injured himself as well. A shin problem is the issue here. Both incidents were very unfortunate, but hopefully, they will both return to good form and become classy stakes winners later in the year.
As for future racing, it appears that A Little Warm, winner of the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on January 9th, will aim for the February 20th Hutcheson Stakes. If he should win this, he could then wait another month for the Florida Derby. If he should win that, then he would have had the perfect Triple Crown Trail in my mind, slowly building up the distances. If he can go a mile-and-a-half, he could be the one to sweep the Triple Crown. But this is saying a lot, and the only thing to go on is his six furlong ungraded stakes win. But it's fun to think about.
Another little notice that’s sure be mentioned, 2006 Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro, has a full brother named Letenor who broke his maiden in his third attempt on January 20th. He joins Barbaro, as well as Barbaro's other full brother, Nicanor, as a winner on turf. There has been talk about the Triple Crown, but for now, it sounds like Letenor will stick to the turf and perhaps try a stakes race somewhere.
And finally, the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds could quite possibly be a very important prep, as Friesian Fire won that race last year and ended up being the favorite for that year's Kentucky Derby. I won't dive into a deep analysis of the race, but glancing at the entries, Maximus Ruler looks good, as does Worldy and Citrus Kid. The name Rock Hard leaps out at me, and I suddenly can't help but think he'll run well.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
RACE ANALYSIS: THE HOLY BULL STAKES (gr. III)
Tomorrow, January 23rd, is going to be a fun day. It's time for everyone to get their first look at newly turned three year old Jackson Bend, who put on a show last year down in Florida, sweeping five of his six starts, including the Florida Stallion Series. His last race was on October 17th, so he has been given a break of three months. Although he has never won a graded stakes race, he did succeed in nailing D'Funnybone by a half in the Frank Gomez Memorial Stakes over six furlongs at Calder Race Course. D'Funnybone is no slouch himself. He came back from that race to win the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) by 10 1/2 lengths, and then proceeded to dominate the Futurity Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park by 4 3/4 lengths. That said, I shall now dive deep into the details of every horse, evaluate their chances, and try to pick the winner.
1. Thank U Philippe
I know very little about this colt, except that he finished second to Buddy's Saint in the grade II Nashua Stakes, beaten twelve lengths. He also finished second to Jackson Bend in the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion Series, I believe. Beyond that, I know nothing. He could very well run a great race, and he could very well run last. He will be ridden by E. Castro.
2. Homeboykris
The upset winner of the Champagne Stakes failed to fire in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November, checking in fifth. Nearly two months later he's back, and threatens to knock off Jackson Bend in their first meeting. Ridden by Edgar Prado, Homeboykris will carry the high weight in the race, 122 pounds. Hopefully, it won't come down to those two extra pounds. I suspect that he will run a good race, but it will be hard to beat Jackson Bend. Just a note, Homeboykris is a gelding, so if he does turn out to be a really nice horse, we should be able to enjoy his races for many years to come.
3. Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, I have not been able to find out very much about this colt. It appears that his last race was in the grade III Boyd Gaming's Delta Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs, where he finished fourth behind Rule, beaten 4 3/4 lengths. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia, which is never a bad thing. Maybe Garcia can pull off a ride like the one he pulled off in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, getting Da'Tara to wire the field for a miracle 5 1/4 length win at odds of 38-1.
4. Pisciteli
His biggest question is whether or not he can handle the dirt. He has run his past three races on synthetics, but his lone win came in a maiden race on the dirt at Monmouth Park. This seems to say that he can handle it okay. Prior to that win, he was beaten a head by Interactif in another maiden race on dirt. Interactif has turned into a very fine colt, so this does say something for Pisciteli. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who rode him to his fourth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In that race, he set the pace for about seven furlongs before giving up the lead to Noble's Promise. However, he did manage to come back at the latter, finishing a head behind him and only a length behind victorious Vale of York. If he can race that well on dirt, he could very well win this race.
5. William's Kitten
This is one colt who could very well run better than his odds. In his first race, he ran poorly, finishing seventh in a five-furlong turf maiden race at Churchill Downs. However, he followed that up with a win in a one-mile turf maiden race at Ellis Park. That race was run on a track labeled good. He then ran in a $25,000 one-mile turf allowance race at Ruidoso Downs. He finished third. Following this, he stepped up to a stakes race, the $150,000 Sunday Silence Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, down at Louisiana Downs. This was perhaps his most fascinating race, to me that is, as the race was rained off the turf, and William's Kitten sat last for much of the race before coming on with a six wide run to win the race by 4 3/4 lengths. Tried on a synthetic track, he ran fifth in the grade II Grey Stakes up at Woodbine, beaten two lengths at a-mile-and-a-sixteenth, and then finished eighth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 78-1. However, he was wide on the final turn and was only beaten by six-and-a-half lengths. Then, three weeks later, he finished second to the nice colt Super Saver in the grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, beaten five lengths. Behind him was Thiskyhasnolimit, winner of the Iroquis Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. So what does this tell us? William's Kitten seems to be able to run impressively on real dirt. So we'll see what he does on Saturday.
6. Winslow Homer
His biggest win thus far has come in an allowance race on November 20th of last year. This would mean just about nothing, except that he won by 12 1/2 lengths. Any young horse who wins any race by that much should be watched. He also gets into the race with only 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez, who is certainly one of the best jockeys around. He has won two of three races, and worked a half mile in :50.30 at Palm Meadows on January 18th. He seems ready to run a big one.
7. Wild Lime
Another horse I was unable to locate any information on. All I know is that he will be ridden by J. Lezcano.
8. Aikenite
This colt has the possibility to run huge. His career so far has consisted of a maiden race at Saratoga, which he won, a nice third in the grade I Hopeful Stakes in only his second start, a second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland, a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, beaten 2 3/4 lengths, and as far as I know, nothing further. So he is still looking for his first stakes win, but he already has two grade I placings and a very nice fifth in the Breeders' Cup. It is safe to say that he has run well on dirt and synthetics, and I expect him to run a very nice race on Saturday.
9. Jackson Bend
So far, he appears to be the best horse in the race. However, he has drawn post position nine, which is certainly not the greatest post position for him. Considering that he likes to run fairly close to the pace, his jockey, Jeremy Rose, may have to send him early to keep him from being caught wide entering the turn. He worked a bullet five furlongs at Palm Meadows, turning in a :59.30. He appears to be ready to roll, but strange things can happen when a three year old makes his debut. He will be carrying 120 pounds, two less than highweight Homeboykris.
And so, now that I have thoroughly investigated the details of every horse in the race, (and in the cases of Wild Lime, Litigation Risk, and Thank U Philippe, everything I know) I can select my picks for the race. The following list is the order in which I believe they will finish. To date, I have never succeeded in doing this, that is, selecting the exact order of finish for a race, but I have come close a couple of times. Maybe Saturday will be the day.
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homeboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Pisciteli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
This race could go many different ways. It is very possible that Winslow Homer could be a much better horse than I think, just as it's very possible that he could finish last. Litigation Risk, whom I have selected to finish last, could very well turn into the next Secretariat. Nobody knows at this point. Homeboykris could run a huge race and win by twenty lengths, or he could finish last. Jackson Bend could very well be caught three or four wide. We'll find out tomorrow.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
1. Thank U Philippe
I know very little about this colt, except that he finished second to Buddy's Saint in the grade II Nashua Stakes, beaten twelve lengths. He also finished second to Jackson Bend in the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion Series, I believe. Beyond that, I know nothing. He could very well run a great race, and he could very well run last. He will be ridden by E. Castro.
2. Homeboykris
The upset winner of the Champagne Stakes failed to fire in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November, checking in fifth. Nearly two months later he's back, and threatens to knock off Jackson Bend in their first meeting. Ridden by Edgar Prado, Homeboykris will carry the high weight in the race, 122 pounds. Hopefully, it won't come down to those two extra pounds. I suspect that he will run a good race, but it will be hard to beat Jackson Bend. Just a note, Homeboykris is a gelding, so if he does turn out to be a really nice horse, we should be able to enjoy his races for many years to come.
3. Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, I have not been able to find out very much about this colt. It appears that his last race was in the grade III Boyd Gaming's Delta Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs, where he finished fourth behind Rule, beaten 4 3/4 lengths. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia, which is never a bad thing. Maybe Garcia can pull off a ride like the one he pulled off in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, getting Da'Tara to wire the field for a miracle 5 1/4 length win at odds of 38-1.
4. Pisciteli
His biggest question is whether or not he can handle the dirt. He has run his past three races on synthetics, but his lone win came in a maiden race on the dirt at Monmouth Park. This seems to say that he can handle it okay. Prior to that win, he was beaten a head by Interactif in another maiden race on dirt. Interactif has turned into a very fine colt, so this does say something for Pisciteli. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who rode him to his fourth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In that race, he set the pace for about seven furlongs before giving up the lead to Noble's Promise. However, he did manage to come back at the latter, finishing a head behind him and only a length behind victorious Vale of York. If he can race that well on dirt, he could very well win this race.
5. William's Kitten
This is one colt who could very well run better than his odds. In his first race, he ran poorly, finishing seventh in a five-furlong turf maiden race at Churchill Downs. However, he followed that up with a win in a one-mile turf maiden race at Ellis Park. That race was run on a track labeled good. He then ran in a $25,000 one-mile turf allowance race at Ruidoso Downs. He finished third. Following this, he stepped up to a stakes race, the $150,000 Sunday Silence Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, down at Louisiana Downs. This was perhaps his most fascinating race, to me that is, as the race was rained off the turf, and William's Kitten sat last for much of the race before coming on with a six wide run to win the race by 4 3/4 lengths. Tried on a synthetic track, he ran fifth in the grade II Grey Stakes up at Woodbine, beaten two lengths at a-mile-and-a-sixteenth, and then finished eighth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 78-1. However, he was wide on the final turn and was only beaten by six-and-a-half lengths. Then, three weeks later, he finished second to the nice colt Super Saver in the grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, beaten five lengths. Behind him was Thiskyhasnolimit, winner of the Iroquis Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. So what does this tell us? William's Kitten seems to be able to run impressively on real dirt. So we'll see what he does on Saturday.
6. Winslow Homer
His biggest win thus far has come in an allowance race on November 20th of last year. This would mean just about nothing, except that he won by 12 1/2 lengths. Any young horse who wins any race by that much should be watched. He also gets into the race with only 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez, who is certainly one of the best jockeys around. He has won two of three races, and worked a half mile in :50.30 at Palm Meadows on January 18th. He seems ready to run a big one.
7. Wild Lime
Another horse I was unable to locate any information on. All I know is that he will be ridden by J. Lezcano.
8. Aikenite
This colt has the possibility to run huge. His career so far has consisted of a maiden race at Saratoga, which he won, a nice third in the grade I Hopeful Stakes in only his second start, a second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland, a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, beaten 2 3/4 lengths, and as far as I know, nothing further. So he is still looking for his first stakes win, but he already has two grade I placings and a very nice fifth in the Breeders' Cup. It is safe to say that he has run well on dirt and synthetics, and I expect him to run a very nice race on Saturday.
9. Jackson Bend
So far, he appears to be the best horse in the race. However, he has drawn post position nine, which is certainly not the greatest post position for him. Considering that he likes to run fairly close to the pace, his jockey, Jeremy Rose, may have to send him early to keep him from being caught wide entering the turn. He worked a bullet five furlongs at Palm Meadows, turning in a :59.30. He appears to be ready to roll, but strange things can happen when a three year old makes his debut. He will be carrying 120 pounds, two less than highweight Homeboykris.
And so, now that I have thoroughly investigated the details of every horse in the race, (and in the cases of Wild Lime, Litigation Risk, and Thank U Philippe, everything I know) I can select my picks for the race. The following list is the order in which I believe they will finish. To date, I have never succeeded in doing this, that is, selecting the exact order of finish for a race, but I have come close a couple of times. Maybe Saturday will be the day.
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homeboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Pisciteli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
This race could go many different ways. It is very possible that Winslow Homer could be a much better horse than I think, just as it's very possible that he could finish last. Litigation Risk, whom I have selected to finish last, could very well turn into the next Secretariat. Nobody knows at this point. Homeboykris could run a huge race and win by twenty lengths, or he could finish last. Jackson Bend could very well be caught three or four wide. We'll find out tomorrow.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
BUDDY'S SAINT
BUDDY'S SAINT
Sitting on top of my top twenty choices for the Triple Crown is a bay colt from the only crop sired by Saint Liam. This bay colt seems to have what it takes to win one or more of the Triple Crown races, hopefully all three. If a horse by Saint Liam is to win a classic, it will have to be this year. His foals have just turned three, and they will never be three again. Can Buddy's Saint pull it off? Only time will tell. But for now, it won't hurt to haul out the statistics and see what he's got going for him.
First, I'll examine his pedigree. I'm certainly not an expert, but it looks good to me. His sire, as I said, is Saint Liam, who won the 2005 Breeders' Cup Classic Powered by Dodge (gr. I), the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I), the Donn Handicap (gr. I), Woodward Stakes (gr. I), Clark Handicap (gr. II), and was runner up in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I), another Woodward Stakes (gr. I), the New Oreleans Handicap (gr. II), and the Iowa Derby. He was also third in the Oaklawn Handicap. Altogether, he made twenty starts, winning nine of them. Seeing that he retired sound, with two Eclipse Awards, he was obviously a very good horse. He got the mile and a quarter in the Breeders' Cup, so it seems as though he had some stamina, but still, it was his only win at a mile and a quarter.
The dam of Buddy's Saint, Tuzia, made twenty five starts, winning seven of them. It appears that she won only one stakes race in her lifetime, the restricted Nastique Stakes, but did succeed in running second in the grade I Personal Ensign Handicap. As a broodmare, she has five named foals, of which four made it to the races, three of the turning out to be winners. However, Buddy's Saint is her only stakes winner, as well as being her only graded stakes winner.
The broodmare sire of Buddy's Saint, Blushing John, was a high class horse himself. He made nineteen starts, winning the grade I Pimlico Special Handicap and the Hollywood Gold Cup, and coming in third in the 1989 Breeders’ Cup Classic. He also took the Eclipse Award for Older Male in 1989.
Saint Ballado, sire of Saint Liam, certainly has good credentials. Ten percent of his foals became stakes winners, his total being 70 stakes winners from 701 foals.
And of course, there are lots of other nice horses in Buddy's pedigree, including Halo, Hail to Reason, Fappiano, Lyphard, Blushing Groom, Northern Dancer, and more.
Now I take a look at Buddy’s Saint’s racing career, which has been very impressive to say the least. In his first race, he finished first but was disqualified and placed second after bumping Global Force in the stretch. Buddy must have shown something impressive in that race, because his next start was the grade II Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Breeders' Cup Day. Despite the huge step up in class, he won by twelve lengths, earning the third highest Beyer Speed Figure for a two year of 2009. The time for the one mile race was 1:35.67.
Three weeks later, he returned to try nine furlongs in the Remsen Stakes, also at Aqueduct. The class of the race was a bit higher, with the grade I Champagne Stakes winner Homboykris in the race. Homeboykris finished fifth, while Buddy's Saint romped by four and three quarters of a length.
That was his last race to date. Since then, he has been shipped to Florida and intends to run in the grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes, with either the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial to follow. The Florida Derby has been moved to six weeks before the Kentucky Derby, with the Wood Memorial four weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby. This means that if Buddy's Saint was to attempt the Fountain of Youth/Florida Derby double, he would have just three weeks in between those two races. He has shown that he can do that, but these two races are of the highest class and will undoubtedly have higher class competition. On the other hand, he would be getting a six week break leading up to the Kentucky Derby. This could be good, and it could be bad. The Wood Memorial, four weeks after the Fountain of Youth and four weeks before the Kentucky Derby, seems to be slightly better timing. This is assuming that he is only being given two prep races prior to the Triple Crown. If he turns out for the Holy Bull, which seems unlikely at this time, I would say that the Wood Memorial is a must. Otherwise, his spring schedule could be quite trying, and possibly leave him too tired to win any Triple Crown race. However, his trainer knows much more than I do about Buddy's Saint, and I'm sure that whatever he chooses to do, it will be the right decision.
One last fact about his upcoming races. Despite the fact that this is not going to happen, I would like to mention the Hutcheson Stakes on the same day as the Fountain of Youth as a possibility. Its seven furlong distance would allow Buddy to build up to the Triple Crown, rather than attempt to nine furlong races in the course of three to four weeks. Just a thought.
Finally, I come to some facts and notes about Buddy's Saint that also point to a bright future.
1. I really like the fact that Buddy skipped the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Despite the fact the Street Sense, in 2007, succeeded in sweeping the Juvenile/Derby double, he also proved that it is an extremely hard feat to accomplish. Also, the two Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners that followed Street Sense—War Pass and Midshipman—were injured leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and were forced to miss the entire Triple Crown. It seems to be a very trying race.
2. Buddy's Saint was purchased at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling auction, for $100,000. This has nothing whatsoever to do with his ability as a racehorse, but I thought I'd mention it anyway.
3. During the past nine years, four sires have had the Kentucky Derby winner in their first crop. They include Maria's Mon with Monarchos, Distorted Humor with Funny Cide, Street Cry with Street Sense, and Birdstone with Mine That Bird. Now, Buddy's Saint comes from his sire's first crop. Glancing quickly through more statistics, I find that Preakness Stakes winners Rachel Alexandra and Funny Cide, as well as Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird, all came from their sire's first crops. I can't find anything to prove that this isn't just a bizarre coincidence, but it's a fact.
4. Bruce Levine, trainer of Buddy's Saint, has never attempted to win the Kentucky Derby before. However, in the past ten years, Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., Rick Dutrow Jr., Michel Matz, John Shirreffs, John Servis, Barclay Tagg, and Neil Drysdale have all won the Kentucky Derby on their first attempt. Seven of the last ten Kentucky Derbies. Hmm. . .
posted by Keelerman
Sitting on top of my top twenty choices for the Triple Crown is a bay colt from the only crop sired by Saint Liam. This bay colt seems to have what it takes to win one or more of the Triple Crown races, hopefully all three. If a horse by Saint Liam is to win a classic, it will have to be this year. His foals have just turned three, and they will never be three again. Can Buddy's Saint pull it off? Only time will tell. But for now, it won't hurt to haul out the statistics and see what he's got going for him.
First, I'll examine his pedigree. I'm certainly not an expert, but it looks good to me. His sire, as I said, is Saint Liam, who won the 2005 Breeders' Cup Classic Powered by Dodge (gr. I), the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I), the Donn Handicap (gr. I), Woodward Stakes (gr. I), Clark Handicap (gr. II), and was runner up in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I), another Woodward Stakes (gr. I), the New Oreleans Handicap (gr. II), and the Iowa Derby. He was also third in the Oaklawn Handicap. Altogether, he made twenty starts, winning nine of them. Seeing that he retired sound, with two Eclipse Awards, he was obviously a very good horse. He got the mile and a quarter in the Breeders' Cup, so it seems as though he had some stamina, but still, it was his only win at a mile and a quarter.
The dam of Buddy's Saint, Tuzia, made twenty five starts, winning seven of them. It appears that she won only one stakes race in her lifetime, the restricted Nastique Stakes, but did succeed in running second in the grade I Personal Ensign Handicap. As a broodmare, she has five named foals, of which four made it to the races, three of the turning out to be winners. However, Buddy's Saint is her only stakes winner, as well as being her only graded stakes winner.
The broodmare sire of Buddy's Saint, Blushing John, was a high class horse himself. He made nineteen starts, winning the grade I Pimlico Special Handicap and the Hollywood Gold Cup, and coming in third in the 1989 Breeders’ Cup Classic. He also took the Eclipse Award for Older Male in 1989.
Saint Ballado, sire of Saint Liam, certainly has good credentials. Ten percent of his foals became stakes winners, his total being 70 stakes winners from 701 foals.
And of course, there are lots of other nice horses in Buddy's pedigree, including Halo, Hail to Reason, Fappiano, Lyphard, Blushing Groom, Northern Dancer, and more.
Now I take a look at Buddy’s Saint’s racing career, which has been very impressive to say the least. In his first race, he finished first but was disqualified and placed second after bumping Global Force in the stretch. Buddy must have shown something impressive in that race, because his next start was the grade II Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Breeders' Cup Day. Despite the huge step up in class, he won by twelve lengths, earning the third highest Beyer Speed Figure for a two year of 2009. The time for the one mile race was 1:35.67.
Three weeks later, he returned to try nine furlongs in the Remsen Stakes, also at Aqueduct. The class of the race was a bit higher, with the grade I Champagne Stakes winner Homboykris in the race. Homeboykris finished fifth, while Buddy's Saint romped by four and three quarters of a length.
That was his last race to date. Since then, he has been shipped to Florida and intends to run in the grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes, with either the Florida Derby or the Wood Memorial to follow. The Florida Derby has been moved to six weeks before the Kentucky Derby, with the Wood Memorial four weeks prior to the Kentucky Derby. This means that if Buddy's Saint was to attempt the Fountain of Youth/Florida Derby double, he would have just three weeks in between those two races. He has shown that he can do that, but these two races are of the highest class and will undoubtedly have higher class competition. On the other hand, he would be getting a six week break leading up to the Kentucky Derby. This could be good, and it could be bad. The Wood Memorial, four weeks after the Fountain of Youth and four weeks before the Kentucky Derby, seems to be slightly better timing. This is assuming that he is only being given two prep races prior to the Triple Crown. If he turns out for the Holy Bull, which seems unlikely at this time, I would say that the Wood Memorial is a must. Otherwise, his spring schedule could be quite trying, and possibly leave him too tired to win any Triple Crown race. However, his trainer knows much more than I do about Buddy's Saint, and I'm sure that whatever he chooses to do, it will be the right decision.
One last fact about his upcoming races. Despite the fact that this is not going to happen, I would like to mention the Hutcheson Stakes on the same day as the Fountain of Youth as a possibility. Its seven furlong distance would allow Buddy to build up to the Triple Crown, rather than attempt to nine furlong races in the course of three to four weeks. Just a thought.
Finally, I come to some facts and notes about Buddy's Saint that also point to a bright future.
1. I really like the fact that Buddy skipped the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Despite the fact the Street Sense, in 2007, succeeded in sweeping the Juvenile/Derby double, he also proved that it is an extremely hard feat to accomplish. Also, the two Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners that followed Street Sense—War Pass and Midshipman—were injured leading up to the Kentucky Derby, and were forced to miss the entire Triple Crown. It seems to be a very trying race.
2. Buddy's Saint was purchased at the 2008 Keeneland September yearling auction, for $100,000. This has nothing whatsoever to do with his ability as a racehorse, but I thought I'd mention it anyway.
3. During the past nine years, four sires have had the Kentucky Derby winner in their first crop. They include Maria's Mon with Monarchos, Distorted Humor with Funny Cide, Street Cry with Street Sense, and Birdstone with Mine That Bird. Now, Buddy's Saint comes from his sire's first crop. Glancing quickly through more statistics, I find that Preakness Stakes winners Rachel Alexandra and Funny Cide, as well as Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird, all came from their sire's first crops. I can't find anything to prove that this isn't just a bizarre coincidence, but it's a fact.
4. Bruce Levine, trainer of Buddy's Saint, has never attempted to win the Kentucky Derby before. However, in the past ten years, Bennie "Chip" Woolley Jr., Rick Dutrow Jr., Michel Matz, John Shirreffs, John Servis, Barclay Tagg, and Neil Drysdale have all won the Kentucky Derby on their first attempt. Seven of the last ten Kentucky Derbies. Hmm. . .
posted by Keelerman
Monday, January 18, 2010
KEELERMAN'S PICKS FOR THE 2009 ECLIPSE AWARDS
KEELERMAN'S PICKS FOR THE 2009 ECLIPSE AWARDS
HORSE OF THE YEAR1st - ZENYATTA
2nd - RACHEL ALEXANDRA
TWO YEAR OLD MALE1st - LOOKIN AT LUCKY
2nd - NOBLE'S PROMISE
3rd - VALE OF YORK
TWO YEAR OLD FILLY
1st - BLIND LUCK
2nd - SHE BE WILD
3rd - HOT DIXIE CHICK
THREE YEAR OLD MALESUMMER BIRD
MINE THAT BIRD
QUALITY ROAD
THREE YEAR OLD FILLY
RACHEL ALEXANDRA
CARELESS JEWEL
FLASHING
OLDER MALE
GIO POINTI
EINSTEIN
KODIAK KOWBOY
OLDER FEMALE
ZENYATTA
LIFE IS SWEET
MUSIC NOTE
MALE SPRINTER
KODIAK KOWBOY
DANCING IN SILKS
ZENSATIONAL
FEMALE SPRINTER
INFORMED DECISION
VENTURA
MUSIC NOTE
MALE TURF HORSE
GIO PONTI
PRESIOUS PASSION
CONDUIT
FEMALE TURF HORSE
VENTURA
GOLDIKOVA
MIDDAY
STEEPLECHASE HORSE
MIXED UP
RED LETTER DAY
SPY IN THE SKY
OWNER
Mr. and Mrs. JEROME MOSS
GODOLPHIN
JUDDMONTE FARMS
BREEDER
JUDDMONTE FARMS
DOLPHUS C. MORRISON
ADENA SPRINGS
TRAINER
JOHN SHERRIFFS
STEVE ASMUSSEN
BOB BAFFERT
JOCKEY
JULIEN LEPAROUX
GARRET GOMEZ
RAMON DOMINGUEZ
APPRENTICE JOCKEY
CHRISTIAN SANTIAGO REYES
LUIS BATISTA
LUIS SAEZ
posted by Keelerman
HORSE OF THE YEAR1st - ZENYATTA
2nd - RACHEL ALEXANDRA
TWO YEAR OLD MALE1st - LOOKIN AT LUCKY
2nd - NOBLE'S PROMISE
3rd - VALE OF YORK
TWO YEAR OLD FILLY
1st - BLIND LUCK
2nd - SHE BE WILD
3rd - HOT DIXIE CHICK
THREE YEAR OLD MALESUMMER BIRD
MINE THAT BIRD
QUALITY ROAD
THREE YEAR OLD FILLY
RACHEL ALEXANDRA
CARELESS JEWEL
FLASHING
OLDER MALE
GIO POINTI
EINSTEIN
KODIAK KOWBOY
OLDER FEMALE
ZENYATTA
LIFE IS SWEET
MUSIC NOTE
MALE SPRINTER
KODIAK KOWBOY
DANCING IN SILKS
ZENSATIONAL
FEMALE SPRINTER
INFORMED DECISION
VENTURA
MUSIC NOTE
MALE TURF HORSE
GIO PONTI
PRESIOUS PASSION
CONDUIT
FEMALE TURF HORSE
VENTURA
GOLDIKOVA
MIDDAY
STEEPLECHASE HORSE
MIXED UP
RED LETTER DAY
SPY IN THE SKY
OWNER
Mr. and Mrs. JEROME MOSS
GODOLPHIN
JUDDMONTE FARMS
BREEDER
JUDDMONTE FARMS
DOLPHUS C. MORRISON
ADENA SPRINGS
TRAINER
JOHN SHERRIFFS
STEVE ASMUSSEN
BOB BAFFERT
JOCKEY
JULIEN LEPAROUX
GARRET GOMEZ
RAMON DOMINGUEZ
APPRENTICE JOCKEY
CHRISTIAN SANTIAGO REYES
LUIS BATISTA
LUIS SAEZ
posted by Keelerman
WELCOME TO MY BLOG
Hello, and welcome to my horse racing blog, "Triple Crown Countdown." Its purpose, as might be guessed by the title, is to count down the days remaining days until the 2010 Triple Crown begins, and try to predict the winners. The Triple Crown, as all horse racing fans know, is a series of three races over the course of five weeks for three-year-old thoroughbreds. Only eleven horses over the course of some one hundred and thirty years have succeeded in winning the trio. It has been thirty-two years since the game chestnut Affirmed managed to hold off the courageous Alydar and complete the sweep. Now, I feel that my abilities as a handicapper have reached the point where I might successfully predict the next winner as early on as January.
As I said above, the Triple Crown consists of three races, beginning on the first Saturday in May, with the historic Kentucky Derby, held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. A mile and a quarter in distance, the race has been run every year since 1875, and is the most famous and sought after of the three. It is followed two weeks later by the Preakness Stakes, held at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, at a distance of mile and three-sixteenths. Finally, the series in completed with the Belmont Stakes, the oldest of the three races, held at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. It is by far the longest of the trio, at a mile and a half.
That said, I feel now is the appropriate time to introduce myself. My name here shall be Keelerman. I have been following horse racing, to some extent, for several years. I have cheered on Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown in their attempts to sweep the crown and, each time, I have seen them fall short. However, I only seriously began paying attention to this sport when Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby with a late move that astounded me. I was thrilled, and completely hooked.
Soon, I was reading horse racing magazines, learning which tracks were dirt, which were synthetic, and making decisions on which horse had the best chance to win that year's Derby. I finally decided that Colonel John was the one, and that he would also sweep the Triple Crown. However, at the finish line, it was not Colonel John, but Big Brown who came thundering under the wire in the same manner I thought the Colonel would. I was disappointed, but soon forgot about it. Colonel John would win again, I felt sure. Meanwhile, it was time to respect Big Brown and cheer him on in the Preakness. The rest of the story is history. Big Brown won the Preakness and was eased turning for home in the Belmont. I was dejected, as the Triple Crown would remain unclaimed again, but it did not last for long, because then something happened that would change everything.
I was glancing back through some issues of The Blood Horse from a few months prior, and a cover picture caught my eye. It was Curlin, winning the 2008 Dubai World Cup.
Suddenly, I remembered. I remembered looking over the names of the horses entered in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. I had decided that Curlin was a nice horse, although I don't really remember why. I had him pegged to finish third in that Derby, which he did, some seven lengths behind Street Sense. Then he managed to win the Preakness by a nose over the latter, and I knew he was more than just a nice horse. I hoped that he might pull off a win in the Belmont too, but the filly Rags to Riches out fought him to the wire. After that race, I just about forgot about Curlin. The magazine suddenly made me recall everything. I opened it up and was astonished. Best horse in the world? Looking to secure the record for richest North American based runner of all time? I could not believe that I had seen this horse run. Then I went back to find out what other races he had won. Breeders' Cup Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Stephen Foster Handicap, and Arkansas Derby. Those name meant nothing to me at the time, but I understood that they were important, the Classic especially.
At this point, I was really captivated by it all. My hero, Curlin, was one of the best horses of the decade, maybe of the past one hundred years, Big Brown had come out of the Belmont without injury, and then, to top it all off, I noticed that an undefeated mare name Zenyatta was starting to make a name for herself at in California. . .
But that is a story for another time. For now, I have stated the purpose of this blog, and named off the horses that got me into this sport. And now, without any further discussion, I shall post my picks for the Triple Crown. This list is organized only by my belief in their ability to sweep the crown. Therefore, I feel that Buddy's Saint, at the top of the list, has best chance to sweep the series, with Lookin at Lucky having the second largest chance, and so forth. After the twentieth horses is a brief list of those who should be watched closely, as they may step up, run a big race, and change my opinions. As there are many races every week leading up to the Triple Crown, this list will change frequently. Check back often to see who the current pick is.
Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
As I said above, the Triple Crown consists of three races, beginning on the first Saturday in May, with the historic Kentucky Derby, held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. A mile and a quarter in distance, the race has been run every year since 1875, and is the most famous and sought after of the three. It is followed two weeks later by the Preakness Stakes, held at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland, at a distance of mile and three-sixteenths. Finally, the series in completed with the Belmont Stakes, the oldest of the three races, held at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. It is by far the longest of the trio, at a mile and a half.
That said, I feel now is the appropriate time to introduce myself. My name here shall be Keelerman. I have been following horse racing, to some extent, for several years. I have cheered on Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, and Big Brown in their attempts to sweep the crown and, each time, I have seen them fall short. However, I only seriously began paying attention to this sport when Colonel John won the Santa Anita Derby with a late move that astounded me. I was thrilled, and completely hooked.
Soon, I was reading horse racing magazines, learning which tracks were dirt, which were synthetic, and making decisions on which horse had the best chance to win that year's Derby. I finally decided that Colonel John was the one, and that he would also sweep the Triple Crown. However, at the finish line, it was not Colonel John, but Big Brown who came thundering under the wire in the same manner I thought the Colonel would. I was disappointed, but soon forgot about it. Colonel John would win again, I felt sure. Meanwhile, it was time to respect Big Brown and cheer him on in the Preakness. The rest of the story is history. Big Brown won the Preakness and was eased turning for home in the Belmont. I was dejected, as the Triple Crown would remain unclaimed again, but it did not last for long, because then something happened that would change everything.
I was glancing back through some issues of The Blood Horse from a few months prior, and a cover picture caught my eye. It was Curlin, winning the 2008 Dubai World Cup.
Suddenly, I remembered. I remembered looking over the names of the horses entered in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. I had decided that Curlin was a nice horse, although I don't really remember why. I had him pegged to finish third in that Derby, which he did, some seven lengths behind Street Sense. Then he managed to win the Preakness by a nose over the latter, and I knew he was more than just a nice horse. I hoped that he might pull off a win in the Belmont too, but the filly Rags to Riches out fought him to the wire. After that race, I just about forgot about Curlin. The magazine suddenly made me recall everything. I opened it up and was astonished. Best horse in the world? Looking to secure the record for richest North American based runner of all time? I could not believe that I had seen this horse run. Then I went back to find out what other races he had won. Breeders' Cup Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Stephen Foster Handicap, and Arkansas Derby. Those name meant nothing to me at the time, but I understood that they were important, the Classic especially.
At this point, I was really captivated by it all. My hero, Curlin, was one of the best horses of the decade, maybe of the past one hundred years, Big Brown had come out of the Belmont without injury, and then, to top it all off, I noticed that an undefeated mare name Zenyatta was starting to make a name for herself at in California. . .
But that is a story for another time. For now, I have stated the purpose of this blog, and named off the horses that got me into this sport. And now, without any further discussion, I shall post my picks for the Triple Crown. This list is organized only by my belief in their ability to sweep the crown. Therefore, I feel that Buddy's Saint, at the top of the list, has best chance to sweep the series, with Lookin at Lucky having the second largest chance, and so forth. After the twentieth horses is a brief list of those who should be watched closely, as they may step up, run a big race, and change my opinions. As there are many races every week leading up to the Triple Crown, this list will change frequently. Check back often to see who the current pick is.
Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
KEELERMAN's TOP TWENTY - as of Jan 18, 2010
posted by Keelerman
THE TWENTY – as of Jan 18, 2010
1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
4. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
5. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
6. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
7. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
8. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
9. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Patrick L. Biancone
10. BRAKE LIGHTS Saint Liam - Miss Golden Circle, by Crafty Prospector ? McLaughlin
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
12. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
13. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
14. CONVEYANCE - ???, ???, by ??? Bob Baffert?
15. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed Bin Suroor
16. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mission - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
17. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
18. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister Steve Asmussen
19. D'FUNNYBONE D'Wildcat - Elbow, by Woodman Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
20. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - ???, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
THE TWENTY – as of Jan 18, 2010
1. BUDDY'S SAINT Saint Liam - Tuzia, by Blushing John Bruce Levine
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
4. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
5. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
6. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
7. INTERACTIF Broken Vow - Broad Pennant, Broad Brush Todd Pletcher
8. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK Touch Gold - All Electric, by ??? Cecil Borel
9. PULSION Include - Spring, by Stravinsky Patrick L. Biancone
10. BRAKE LIGHTS Saint Liam - Miss Golden Circle, by Crafty Prospector ? McLaughlin
11. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
12. SASSY IMAGE Broken Vow - Ideal Image, by Hennessy Dale Romans
13. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
14. CONVEYANCE - ???, ???, by ??? Bob Baffert?
15. VALE OF YORK Invincible Spirit - Red Vale, by Halling Saeed Bin Suroor
16. BLIND LUCK Pollard's Mission - Lucky One, by Best of Luck Jerry Hollendorfer
17. WILLIAM'S KITTEN Kitten's Joy - Blush, by Menifee Michael J. Maker
18. THISKYHASNOLIMIT Sky Mesa - Lovely Regina, by Deputy Minister Steve Asmussen
19. D'FUNNYBONE D'Wildcat - Elbow, by Woodman Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
20. CONNEMARA Giant's Causeway - ???, by Mr. Leader Todd Pletcher
Sunday, January 10, 2010
Post Position One
This is my first post for my new horse racing blog, looking forward to sharing my favorities and insights with you! Be sure to check back often for updates.
Keelerman
Keelerman
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