January 24th, 2010
Well, things didn't quite go the way I thought they would in the Holy Bull. First, I shall post a list of the actual results, followed by the order I believed they would finish. Then I will pour over the details and find out what happened and why.
Actual Results
1 Winslow Homer
2 Jackson Bend
3 William's Kitten
4 Thank U Philippe
5 Homeboykris
6 Aikenite
7 Wild Lime
8 Litigation Risk
9 Piscitelli
My Selections
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Piscitelli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
So as I compare the two lists, I see that I was very wrong about Thank U Philippe, who ran a much better race than I expected him to. The exact opposite happened with Piscitelli, who ran much poorer than I thought he would. Perhaps I paid a little too much attention to his fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. But now I must go into the details of every horse in the race and find out exactly what happened.
1 Winslow Homer
I was very excited to see that he came through with the win, even if only by three-quarters of a length. Racing far back early, he gradually moved up as they approached the final turn, split Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, and just kept fighting off Jackson Bend, who had plenty of time to wear him down but just couldn't get to him. According to his trainer, Winslow Homer should be better in two turn races than in one turn races, and the longer he goes, the better. However, his pedigree does raise a question. He is by Unbridled's Song, a fine sire, but it seems like his foals aren't quite up to the classic distances. But this could very well mean nothing, as the same things were said about Bold Ruler back in the sixties. It seemed as though he just couldn't get a horse who could win at the classic distances, until he sired Secretariat. So I'm greatly looking forward to seeing Winslow Homer race again, hopefully in the nine furlong Fountain of Youth, where he will likely take on Buddy's Saint.
2 Jackson Bend
Just as I had worried, Jackson Bend raced towards the lead but was caught wide on the turn. He raced rather close to the rather quick fractions set by Thank U Philippe and Homeboykris, made his move, but just couldn't get to the winner, even though he had the length of the stretch to cut him down. This does raise questions as to whether he can get the classic distances, but it was still a fine race. He should improve from here. Perhaps he will contest the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 20th. If Winslow Homer, Buddy's Saint, and Super Saver all come out for that race as well, it could very well be the most exciting Triple Crown prep race of the year.
3 William's Kitten
Ran the race I thought he would, laying back early and coming late, but his run just wasn't what it needed to be. He came into the homestretch something like five or six wide, so I'm still left wondering whether he can handle turns or not. He doesn't seem to be able to hug them real well. Still, the race was a good one, although it seems to say again that he is just below the best of his crop at this time. Of course, Summer Bird, winner of last year's Belmont Stakes and the Eclipse Award for Champion 3yo Male wasn't at the top of his crop this early either. In fact, I don't believe Summer Bird had even started at this point last year. So William's Kitten has a lot of time to make up the ground, and perhaps he could be a legitimate Triple Crown horse in just a few months.
4 Thank U Philippe
Actually ran a really nice race, much better than I expected. He set the pace with Homeboykris and just couldn't quite sustain it. Still, the pace he set was very fast, and he is a horse that I will look forward to seeing race again. If he was to ship down to Louisiana or Arkansas, I believe that he would have an excellent chance at one the big preps down there.
5 Homeboykris
He ran a very similar race to the one Thank U Philippe ran, but somehow I'm just not as impressed with his performance. His sire, Roman Ruler, appears to be an excellent sire so far, but never did get ten furlongs. He attempted to win the 2005 Travers Stakes, but could do no better than third behind Flower Alley and Bellamy Road. Homeboykris just seems to be one of those horses who upset a grade I stakes race and fail to do it again. Of course, seeing the he did run some pretty good fractions, he could definitely turn into a fine sprinter.
6 Aikenite
He ran like he wasn't ready for the race. He just hung around about mid pack and failed to fire. Although he showed lots of potential as a two year old, he just doesn't seem to be up to running against the best at this point in his career. He could very well turn into a fine stakes horse. He just doesn't strike me as a Triple Crown contender.
7 Wild Lime
Ah, the mystery horse, the one I knew nothing about. It seems as though I didn't need to know about him, as he ran only slightly better than I though he would, finishing seventh. I had him picked to finish eighth. If I recall, he ran a similar race to the one Aikenite ran, just hovering around in midpack and failing to put in a run.
8 Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, Alan Garcia was unable to pull off a Da'Tara ride. I don't believe Litigation Risk put in any run at all. He appears to be one of those horses who tried and failed along the Triple Crown trail.
9 Piscitelli
I was perhaps most wrong about this colt, as I had him pegged to run sixth, which he most certainly did not. I believe that I was influenced by his nice run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 50-1. Although on the surface it appears that he did not run the race he did in the Breeders' Cup, when I examined both races closer, I realized that perhaps he ran an even better race today than he did in the Juvenile. I say this mainly because I went and examined the fractions of both races. It appears that they went three-quarters of a mile just over three seconds faster in the Holy Bull than they did in the Juvenile. This supposedly equates to something like fifteen lengths. Therefore, Piscitelli ran at least ten lengths faster, maybe more than that, in the Holy Bull than in the Breeders' Cup, and as would be expected, was a bit weary by the time they got to the homestretch. So I am greatly looking forward to his next race. Perhaps he will get an easier pace next time around. Still, at this point in the year, Piscitelli does not seem like a Triple Crown horse. That may change, but it doesn't look likely.
And so altogether, the Holy Bull Stakes was a very fascinating race, and several questions were answered. However, it is only January, and there are still 96 days until the first of the Triple Crown races, the Kentucky Derby. Between now and then, there will be many more prep races, and many more horses will rise up to the challenge of a stakes race, just like Winslow Homer, and defeat many more highly regarded horses. So many things will change, but for now, it appears than Winslow Homer could be just a bit better than anybody though he was.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
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