Tomorrow, January 23rd, is going to be a fun day. It's time for everyone to get their first look at newly turned three year old Jackson Bend, who put on a show last year down in Florida, sweeping five of his six starts, including the Florida Stallion Series. His last race was on October 17th, so he has been given a break of three months. Although he has never won a graded stakes race, he did succeed in nailing D'Funnybone by a half in the Frank Gomez Memorial Stakes over six furlongs at Calder Race Course. D'Funnybone is no slouch himself. He came back from that race to win the Saratoga Special Stakes (gr. II) by 10 1/2 lengths, and then proceeded to dominate the Futurity Stakes (gr. II) at Belmont Park by 4 3/4 lengths. That said, I shall now dive deep into the details of every horse, evaluate their chances, and try to pick the winner.
1. Thank U Philippe
I know very little about this colt, except that he finished second to Buddy's Saint in the grade II Nashua Stakes, beaten twelve lengths. He also finished second to Jackson Bend in the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion Series, I believe. Beyond that, I know nothing. He could very well run a great race, and he could very well run last. He will be ridden by E. Castro.
2. Homeboykris
The upset winner of the Champagne Stakes failed to fire in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November, checking in fifth. Nearly two months later he's back, and threatens to knock off Jackson Bend in their first meeting. Ridden by Edgar Prado, Homeboykris will carry the high weight in the race, 122 pounds. Hopefully, it won't come down to those two extra pounds. I suspect that he will run a good race, but it will be hard to beat Jackson Bend. Just a note, Homeboykris is a gelding, so if he does turn out to be a really nice horse, we should be able to enjoy his races for many years to come.
3. Litigation Risk
Unfortunately, I have not been able to find out very much about this colt. It appears that his last race was in the grade III Boyd Gaming's Delta Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs, where he finished fourth behind Rule, beaten 4 3/4 lengths. He will carry 116 pounds and will be ridden by Alan Garcia, which is never a bad thing. Maybe Garcia can pull off a ride like the one he pulled off in the 2008 Belmont Stakes, getting Da'Tara to wire the field for a miracle 5 1/4 length win at odds of 38-1.
4. Pisciteli
His biggest question is whether or not he can handle the dirt. He has run his past three races on synthetics, but his lone win came in a maiden race on the dirt at Monmouth Park. This seems to say that he can handle it okay. Prior to that win, he was beaten a head by Interactif in another maiden race on dirt. Interactif has turned into a very fine colt, so this does say something for Pisciteli. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux, who rode him to his fourth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. In that race, he set the pace for about seven furlongs before giving up the lead to Noble's Promise. However, he did manage to come back at the latter, finishing a head behind him and only a length behind victorious Vale of York. If he can race that well on dirt, he could very well win this race.
5. William's Kitten
This is one colt who could very well run better than his odds. In his first race, he ran poorly, finishing seventh in a five-furlong turf maiden race at Churchill Downs. However, he followed that up with a win in a one-mile turf maiden race at Ellis Park. That race was run on a track labeled good. He then ran in a $25,000 one-mile turf allowance race at Ruidoso Downs. He finished third. Following this, he stepped up to a stakes race, the $150,000 Sunday Silence Stakes at a mile-and-a-sixteenth on the turf, down at Louisiana Downs. This was perhaps his most fascinating race, to me that is, as the race was rained off the turf, and William's Kitten sat last for much of the race before coming on with a six wide run to win the race by 4 3/4 lengths. Tried on a synthetic track, he ran fifth in the grade II Grey Stakes up at Woodbine, beaten two lengths at a-mile-and-a-sixteenth, and then finished eighth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at odds of 78-1. However, he was wide on the final turn and was only beaten by six-and-a-half lengths. Then, three weeks later, he finished second to the nice colt Super Saver in the grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, beaten five lengths. Behind him was Thiskyhasnolimit, winner of the Iroquis Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. So what does this tell us? William's Kitten seems to be able to run impressively on real dirt. So we'll see what he does on Saturday.
6. Winslow Homer
His biggest win thus far has come in an allowance race on November 20th of last year. This would mean just about nothing, except that he won by 12 1/2 lengths. Any young horse who wins any race by that much should be watched. He also gets into the race with only 116 pounds, and will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez, who is certainly one of the best jockeys around. He has won two of three races, and worked a half mile in :50.30 at Palm Meadows on January 18th. He seems ready to run a big one.
7. Wild Lime
Another horse I was unable to locate any information on. All I know is that he will be ridden by J. Lezcano.
8. Aikenite
This colt has the possibility to run huge. His career so far has consisted of a maiden race at Saratoga, which he won, a nice third in the grade I Hopeful Stakes in only his second start, a second in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland, a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, beaten 2 3/4 lengths, and as far as I know, nothing further. So he is still looking for his first stakes win, but he already has two grade I placings and a very nice fifth in the Breeders' Cup. It is safe to say that he has run well on dirt and synthetics, and I expect him to run a very nice race on Saturday.
9. Jackson Bend
So far, he appears to be the best horse in the race. However, he has drawn post position nine, which is certainly not the greatest post position for him. Considering that he likes to run fairly close to the pace, his jockey, Jeremy Rose, may have to send him early to keep him from being caught wide entering the turn. He worked a bullet five furlongs at Palm Meadows, turning in a :59.30. He appears to be ready to roll, but strange things can happen when a three year old makes his debut. He will be carrying 120 pounds, two less than highweight Homeboykris.
And so, now that I have thoroughly investigated the details of every horse in the race, (and in the cases of Wild Lime, Litigation Risk, and Thank U Philippe, everything I know) I can select my picks for the race. The following list is the order in which I believe they will finish. To date, I have never succeeded in doing this, that is, selecting the exact order of finish for a race, but I have come close a couple of times. Maybe Saturday will be the day.
1 Jackson Bend
2 William's Kitten
3 Winslow Homer
4 Homeboykris
5 Aikenite
6 Pisciteli
7 Thank U Philippe
8 Wild Lime
9 Litigation Risk
This race could go many different ways. It is very possible that Winslow Homer could be a much better horse than I think, just as it's very possible that he could finish last. Litigation Risk, whom I have selected to finish last, could very well turn into the next Secretariat. Nobody knows at this point. Homeboykris could run a huge race and win by twenty lengths, or he could finish last. Jackson Bend could very well be caught three or four wide. We'll find out tomorrow.
-Keelerman
posted by Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment