Just one week ago, two new contenders for the Triple Crown emerged on to the scene, with Winslow Homer and Ron the Greek both emerging victorious from two different grade III prep races while defeating highly regarded colts in the process.
Now, on January 30th, even though there are no large stakes races for three year old colts, there are still several fascinating races today and tomorrow that could have a big impact on the Triple Crown Trail.
The big one that I am most looking forward to is an allowance race on the 31st, down at Gulfstream Park. The big horse here is Pulsion, a son of Include, whom I had actually selected to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year. I felt certain that someone would upset favored Lookin at Lucky. Pulsion himself had finished a nice, closing second to Lookin at Lucky in the Norfolk Stakes just prior to the Breeders' Cup. In the end, someone did upset Lucky, but it was not Pulsion, who finished eleventh. However, he emerged from the race with a large cut and had to be taken out of training for several weeks. And so for the past several months, I have been watching the entries for races in California, assuming that Pulsion would find a race out there somewhere. So imagine my surprise when I see that he has been in Florida for some time, aiming for the Fountain of Youth!
So anyway, the allowance race is a mile and an eighth, two turns, although the race will start very, very close to the first turn. Although Pulsion has never run on dirt, he did work six furlongs in 1:12 flat at Gulfstream, so that seems to say he'll like it okay. His main contenders appear to be Drosselmeyer, a son of Distorted Humor, who broke his maiden by six lengths in a one mile race at Churchill Downs. If he is in the same class as Pulsion, no one knows. We will find out on the 31st.
Also in the race are Guys Reward and Best Actor. Guys Reward is coming off a fast closing fifth in a stakes race on the turf, and prior to that he ran second to Maximus Ruler in a one mile allowance race at Churchill Downs. Maximus Ruler just recently finished second to Ron the Greek in the LeComte Stakes, so Guys Reward seems ready to run a big one. As for Best Actor, he won a maiden race at Gulfstream Park on January 7th. A son of Rock Hard Ten, he is now proven on this track, but he's going to have to really step up to take on the competition here.
The second race that will bear watching is a six furlong allowance race, also at Gulfstream Park, on Saturday. The main entry I'm looking at here is Afleet Express, a son of Afleet Alex who caught my attention when he broke his maiden first time out on December 5th in a six furlong maiden race at Aqueduct. I thought to myself, "Not a terrible time, I like his sire, (Afleet Alex) and boy do I like his name!"
And so I've followed him to some extent since then. After working five furlongs in :59 2/5, he seems ready to go. He is already proven in the mud, so even if a hurricane was to suddenly appear over Gulfstream Park and drop thousands of gallons of water on to the track, he should be fine.
The main challenger for Afleet Express appears to be General Maximus, who has made only one start, and that was in July of last year. Still, he won that race by four lengths, going the five furlongs in :57 2/5, and earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure. So if he can lay off that long and still run a top race, he could very well claim the victory.
Also in Saturday's race is Family Holiday, third in an allowance race last time out, Peace at Dawn, fourth in that same race, Windy City Cat, who has won his only race so far, at Hawthorne, and Octavo, who has been fairly consistent. Any one of these horses appears capable of pulling off the win. Family Holiday will wear blinkers, which he did not wear in his last race.
Another race on Saturday's card is a one mile maiden race. Although I know next to nothing about the field, I think that The Director looks really good here and should run huge. Perhaps the Fountain of Youth is in his bright future.
And now we come to Sunday's Forward Gal Stakes, a grade II race at Gulfstream Park for three year old fillies. The distance is seven furlongs, and the big name here is She Be Wild, the Champion 2yo Filly of 2009 and winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. The biggest question with her is whether she can translate her fine synthetic form to dirt, a surface she has never tried before. She has been working well however, going four furlongs in :47 1/5 at Gulfstream Park, Julien Leparoux, who rode her for the first time in the Breeders' Cup, will ride her again here.
Still, as I examine the race, I seem to smell an upset. She Be Wild will be carrying four to six pounds more than her twelve other rivals, and in a field that large, there is always the possibility of getting stuck in traffic, or getting caught in a speed dual, or any of the other factors that can change the outcome of any race.
Those who have the best chance of upsetting She Be Wild include Richiegirlgonewild, who just recently upset the Old Hat Stakes at this same track, wiring the field at odds of 31-1. Still, the Old Hat Stakes was at six furlongs, and the extra furlong in the Forward Gal Stakes may just catch up to her, as the possibility of her getting a clear lead to slow the pace with seems very unlikely.
Others who have a shot at the race include Joanie's Catch, Criolla Bonita, Romantic Hideaway, Touching Beauty, Cascading, Ailalea, Si Senora, Carphonic, Sister Resistor, Bickersons, and Liam's Dream. Of those, Cascading seems to have some good early speed, as does Bickersons. Ailalea appears to have an excellent chance at this race. She has already won a grade III stakes at Aqueduct going a mile, and with the amount of speed there seems to be in this race, her stretch running style could very well get her there.
Of course, if I was to pick a longshot who seems to have a better than average chance, I would go with Bickersons. She seems to have some ability, despite her tenth place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.
So, my final thoughts are that the race appears to be wide open, but I like that chances of She Be Wild, Bickersons, Richiegirlgonewild, and Ailalea. I think that one of those will win the race.
posted by Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment