The tough-as-nails Optimizer may not win often, but you know he's always going to try his best no matter what the circumstances. A veteran of twenty-six starts, including fourteen alone as a three-year-old last year, the D. Wayne Lukas-trainee will attempt to pick up the first grade I victory of his career on Saturday when he takes on seven rivals in the eleven-furlong Man o' War Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park.
To be perfectly honest, I'm surprised that Optimizer has yet to win a grade I. He's certainly proven himself to be of the caliber, placing third in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) as a two-year-old, third in the Hollywood Turf Cup Stakes (gr. I) as a three-year-old, and second in both the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) and the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (gr. I) this spring, losing the latter two events simply because he couldn't handle the likes of Wise Dan and Point of Entry, two of the finest turf horses we have seen in this country during the last few years.
Fortunately for Optimizer, neither Wise Dan nor Point of Entry are entered in the Man o' War, which leaves the race ripe for conquest. Aside from Optimizer, who will have red-hot jockey Joel Rosario in the saddle, other top contenders include Boisterous, third in this race two years ago, and Twilight Eclipse, who set a world record for twelve furlongs (2:22.63) in winning the Pan American Stakes (gr. II) earlier this year. In particular, Boisterous looms as a major contender off of his triumph in the Monmouth Stakes (gr. II) last time out, in which he beat subsequent United Nations (gr. I) winner Big Blue Kitten by 1 1/4 lengths.
Another intriguing entrant is Speaking of Which, an Irish-bred colt that won the ten-furlong Gallinule Stakes (Ire-III) at the Curragh in May 2012 and -- more recently -- an 8.5-furlong turf allowance race at Monmouth in June. In that allowance race, he blitzed his third quarter in something like :22 4/5 seconds, which was made even more remarkable by his fourth quarter in about :23 2/5. It's hard to say what to think of him going eleven furlongs, but given that he won at ten furlongs in Europe, I'm not too worried about the stretch out.
One major factor in Optimizer's favor is the Rosario factor. The fact is, Rosario seems to fit Optimizer like no other jockey, and I don't think it's a coincidence that several of Optimizer's best efforts -- including his two runner-up efforts in grade I company this year -- have come with Rosario in the saddle. Rosario just seems to understand Optimizer particularly well, and as a result, they make a great team. I think Optimizer would have a terrific chance at winning tomorrow regardless of who rode him, but to me, the presence of Rosario makes him an even more serious contender.
All that said, there is no horse I'd like to see win this race more than Al Khali, a seven-year-old son of Medaglia d'Oro that is 10-1 on the morning line. Believe it or not, Al Khali has contested seventeen grade I races over the years without ever reaching the winner's circle. Those efforts include a heartbreaking defeat in last year's Northern Dancer Stakes at Woodbine, which he lost by a neck after leading into the final furlong. Time may be running out for Al Khali to win a grade I, for his last two efforts have been very sub-par and his old legs may not have quite the zip that they once did. But if he's got one more top-notch run in him somewhere, now would be an appropriate time to unleash it, in the absence of Point of Entry, Wigmore Hall, and Gio Ponti -- horses he has chased home in seemingly endless top-level races of the years.
-Keelerman
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