As of a few days ago, I was under the impression that Oxbow would be the favorite in the William Hill Haskell Invitational (gr. I) this Sunday at Monmouth Park. Why wouldn't he be? He won the Preakness (gr. I) in good fashion, and his runner-up effort in the Belmont (gr. I) was as game a performance as I've ever seen.
Yet much to my surprise, it seems that most people are favoring Wood Memorial (gr. I) winner Verrazano to defeat Oxbow in the Haskell, and the morning line odds reflect this -- Verrazano was made the favorite at 9-5, with Oxbow at 2-1.
Granted, Verrazano is a very good horse. All told, he's won five of his six starts, including a romping win in the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) here at Monmouth last month. True, he got a very easy lead in that race when Itsmyluckyday broke down, but he responded by running his fourth quarter in :23.31 and his final sixteenth in :05.74, fractions that are virtually unheard of on dirt.
But in handicapping the Haskell, I can't help but think back to the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), the only blemish on Verrazano's record. Perhaps the sloppy track was an excuse for his defeat, but much more likely was the blazing pace set by Palace Malice that destroyed the chances of any horse near it. Verrazano was four lengths off the lead after three-quarters of a mile in 1:09.80, and that surely contributed to his fourteenth-place finish. But let's not forget that Oxbow raced even closer to that blazing pace and held on much better, remaining in contention until the final furlong and eventually finishing sixth.
I understand why people are supporting Verrazano in the Haskell. But given that Oxbow outran him in their lone meeting, and went on to win a classic, I think it's going to take a monstrous effort from Verrazano to lower Oxbow's colors in the Haskell.
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One other colt that intrigues me in the Haskell is Power Broker. Trained by Bob Baffert, who has won the last three runnings of the Haskell, Power Broker was very impressive in winning the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont Park in June, drawing off to win by 3 3/4 lengths over Micromanage. The latter, of course, returned to win the Long Branch Stakes in powerful fashion here at Monmouth, and is also entered in the Haskell. Power Broker may not be receiving much hype, but from a trainer perspective alone, he deserves respect. Don't count him out by any means.
-Keelerman
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