When Princess of Sylmar rallied to win the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) at odds of 34-1 -- defeating a field that many considered to be the strongest for that race in a long, long time -- many people felt that Dreaming of Julia, who finished fourth after a difficult trip, would rebound to reclaim leadership of the sophomore filly division. However, a distant runner-up finish in the Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) put a damper on Dreaming of Julia's championship credentials, and with no other filly having stepped up in the meantime, Princess of Sylmar will look to bolster her own Eclipse award chances in the $300,000 Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) on Saturday at Saratoga.
However, this time around, Princess of Sylmar won't be 34-1. Her credentials are obvious. Kentucky Oaks winners don't go off at 34-1 in any race, let alone their first start since their victory under the Twin Spires. Assuming she wins on Saturday, the combination of Kentucky Oaks/Coaching Club American Oaks will hold a lot of weight at the end of the year, when votes are cast for the Eclipse awards. Basically, victory on Saturday will go a long way toward establishing Princess of Sylmar as the queen of her division.
That said, victory is by no means guaranteed. Four very talented rivals have lined up to face Princess of Sylmar, including stablemate Unlimited Budget, who won the first four starts of her career -- including three graded stakes -- before finishing third in the Kentucky Oaks and sixth in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) against colts. For Unlimited Budget, victory in the CCA Oaks would put a grade I win on her record, something noticeably absent at this time. But while it would stamp her as a contender for the division title, it would also put her in pretty much the same boat as Princess of Sylmar, Close Hatches, Midnight Lucky, etc. etc. -- very good fillies that have yet to stamp themselves as superior to the rest of the pack.
In a similar position is Marathon Lady, a consistent filly that has placed in four consecutive graded stakes races this year without winning any. That streak includes a third-place finish in the Mother Goose Stakes (gr. I) last time out, in which she was beaten just a half-length for second by Dreaming of Julia. If she can put it all together on Saturday, a victory is not out of the question, but her late-running style may be compromised by the small field.
Rounding out the field are My Happy Face and Cue the Moon, who finished just a neck apart when first and second in the Tempted Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct last November. Since that meeting, each filly has made two starts, with My Happy Face finishing second in the Forward Gal Stakes (gr. II) and winning the one-mile Lotka Stakes while Cue the Moon finished a distant third in the Gulfstream Oaks (gr. II) and fourth in the Acorn Stakes (gr. I). Nine furlongs may be a bit beyond each filly's best distance, but both may have a tactical edge in terms of early speed, My Happy Face especially.
Exactly what will transpire in the CCA Oaks is difficult to predict. But it's not hard to predict that the winner will step to the forefront of the sophomore filly division -- at least for the time being.
-Keelerman
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